Substack Dashboard

Updated Friday, July 10 2026 · 06:19 AM CDT · 92 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 13

TGIF: The Oyster of My Eye

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • The Free Press July Supper Club event is expanding to 38 cities across four countries as reader-organized meetups prove unexpectedly popular.
  • Author reflects on Sun Valley as personal destination, characterizing market efficiency as naturally aligning life outcomes with individual merit.
  • Community-driven dining events have become a successful venture with overwhelming demand for expansion and repetition.
Jul 10, 05:03 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Macro Charts

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Japan's finance minister called for massive pension funds to increase domestic asset allocation, triggering yen strength and bond yield decline.
  • Government Pension Investment Fund allocation changes could have broad implications beyond Japan given its $1.2 trillion position as largest foreign holder of US Treasuries.
  • Strategic shift in Japanese capital allocation signals potential major reorientation of global asset flows and currency dynamics.
Jul 10, 03:51 AMRead on Substack →

Katayama is reading the BoJ Watchtower

PRIORITY
Mark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is pushing for greater home bias in pension fund allocations, particularly through GPIF increasing JGB holdings to 35% as yields now compensate for risk.
  • BoJ's Yield Curve Control policy (2016-23) caused a 50% yen devaluation and needs to be reversed through institutional investor capital reallocation.
  • Author claims Katayama is reading his reports and acting on the recommendations for domestic bond reweighting to support yen recovery.
Jul 10, 02:46 AMRead on Substack →

Christopher Caldwell: Inside Donald Trump’s Ruthless Return

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's 'Regime Change' sold 300,000+ copies in first week, fastest-selling nonfiction hardcover of 2026.
  • Book argues Trump's return marks unprecedented expansion of executive presidential power and transformation of the office.
  • Christopher Caldwell provides conservative analysis of Trump's second term and the book's central thesis on executive authority.
Jul 09, 02:53 PMRead on Substack →

Picking Matt and Joe's Brain on Coal

PRIORITY
Ferg from Trader Ferg
  • Commodity trader interviews coal experts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina on current thermal and metallurgical coal market dynamics.
  • Discussion draws on deep sector expertise to reassess author's commodity sector thesis.
  • Focus on data infrastructure and market setup for coal trading positions.
Jul 09, 11:51 AMRead on Substack →

FROM THE ARCHIVES!

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Archive post collecting early-2010s research on China's economic deterioration before it became consensus view.
  • Research covered iron ore, mining sector, and Brazilian debt crisis risks during commodity boom period.
  • Author's consistent bearish thesis on commodity-dependent economies and China structural weakness spanning over a decade.
  • Materials serve as historical reference point for long-term contrarian macro analysis.
Jul 09, 10:07 AMRead on Substack →

Kid Accounts: Trump Accounts, IRAs, and 529s

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • New Trump Accounts (530A accounts) launched July 4 with a government gift feature limited to children born between January 1-December 31, 2025.
  • Parents now have multiple account options for minors including standard accounts, IRAs, SEP IRAs, Roth IRAs, 529s, and the new Trump Accounts.
  • A hands-on investment lab for students will use real market hours to help middle and high schoolers open their first stock portfolios with parental support.
Jul 09, 07:57 AMRead on Substack →

MY READ OF THE AI TRADE

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Major tech stocks (Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have underperformed recently due to heavy data center capex reducing free cash flow despite strong fundamentals.
  • Traditional bull case attributes weakness to cyclical capex needs for exploding AI demand; traditional bear case draws dot-com parallels with hyperscaler weakness preceding hardware stock declines.
  • The author suggests both extreme bullish and bearish interpretations miss the nuanced reality that AI is booming while simultaneously threatening existing tech business models.
Jul 09, 06:32 AMRead on Substack →

Platner’s Defiant Departure. A Way Out of the Iran Mess. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Trump has formally abandoned the ceasefire agreement with Iran and resumed military strikes, declaring intent to 'finish the job.'
  • Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting over 80 U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and command infrastructure.
  • The original agreement's foundation was flawed, with U.S. officials misinterpreting the MOU's language regarding Iran's obligation to keep the Strait open.
Jul 09, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Financial markets rallied 2% from recent lows despite resumed Iran-Israel hostilities, contradicting expected risk-off behavior.
  • Market participants may have perceived the ceasefire as less profitable than active conflict, incentivizing a return to geopolitical tension.
  • Trading dynamics suggest institutional actors benefit from volatility and war-driven market movements over prolonged peace.
Jul 09, 04:46 AMRead on Substack →

The Resilience Pivot

PRIORITY
Ferg from Trader Ferg
  • Polymarket assigns 61% probability that Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 31st, suggesting market pricing in near-term resolution despite escalated US-Iran conflict.
  • Trump's pattern of managing market expectations through jawboning has proven effective in moderating volatility, creating positioning opportunities where worst outcomes are already priced.
  • Emerging markets remain structurally attractive despite current weakness, with SPR drawdowns and munitions constraints limiting Trump's escalation options against Iran.
Jul 08, 04:53 PMRead on Substack →

Ramblings & Ruminations: Mid-Year 2026 Overview

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Markets have reached a state of criticality with high instability across macro conditions, USD, and equity positioning.
  • Author reviews jobs, inflation, metals (platinum), and recent trading positions while noting historic volatility in energy markets.
  • Acknowledges previous focus on oil dynamics but broadens analysis to include broader macroeconomic themes and geopolitical risk.
Jul 08, 09:29 AMRead on Substack →

infinite sharpe

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Latest Options Trench episode explains how to compute levered ETF imbalances and estimate market impact.
  • Patrick McKenzie interviews Wall Street quant on why institutions producing bad statistics face minimal consequences despite documented errors.
  • Discussion covers institutional indifference to error, COVID-era decision-making failures, and the difficulty of auditing high-status institutions.
Jul 08, 07:32 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 14

We Are Wrong About What Makes Us Happy. Here Is What the Evidence Says to Do Instead.

Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
  • Research shows people systematically mispredicts what will make them happy, focusing on wrong variables like physical environment over social factors.
  • Harvard study found housing quality predictions had minimal correlation with actual happiness levels; social environment mattered far more than housing desirability.
  • Social media infrastructure now amplifies this prediction error by highlighting variables people over-weight while obscuring social factors that actually drive well-being.
Jul 10, 06:00 AMRead on Substack →

Are conservatives more post-literate than liberals?, America 100 years ago, hurrah for economic growth and a lock …

James Marriott from Cultural Capital
  • Author's book 'The New Dark Ages' about the decline of reading goes to print September 3rd, examining literacy and engagement trends.
  • Post references Derek Thompson's analysis of social trends from 1926 America, exploring historical parallels to modern cultural shifts.
  • Author discusses the creative process of finalizing manuscript and difficulty in releasing control of completed work.
Jul 10, 12:30 AMRead on Substack →

Greed

Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
  • Greed is a universal human motivation that most people avoid admitting openly, but drives ambition for wealth accumulation.
  • Responsible wealth decisions require maintaining sufficient liquid assets that major purchases don't impact financial stability or family goals.
  • Market drawdowns are painful because they delay personal financial goals, making returns the path to achieving lifestyle aspirations beyond newsletter income.
Jul 09, 07:29 PMRead on Substack →

Four Ways All Christians Are United

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Christian denominations—Catholic, Protestant, and Orthodox—share common ground through the Nicene Creed's four marks of the church.
  • The Evangelicals and Catholics Together initiative demonstrates that Christian unity transcends theological differences and strengthens democratic principles.
  • Christian solidarity rooted in love, rather than politics, is essential to restoring Western civilization.
  • Democratic governance requires both protection of God-given rights and constitutional checks on human sinfulness.
Jul 09, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Feminisation Of Society, Masculinity Crisis and America’s Next President? | Heather Mac Donald

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Heather Mac Donald argues modern culture has systematically discredited positive masculinity while elevating grievance politics and emotionalism.
  • Elite institutions from academia to media have embraced anti-Western ideology prioritizing identity politics over merit, discipline, and rationality.
  • Growing divide between young men and women reflects campus radicalism, manosphere rise, and displacement of shared civilizational values.
  • Discussion explores whether populist-right figures like Trump and Farage can challenge institutional dominance of progressive ideology in Western democracies.
Jul 09, 09:01 AMRead on Substack →

Fingers on the scale

Mark Phillips from The Till
  • America has embraced soccer culture with World Cup fever spreading nationwide across multiple cities and restaurants.
  • FIFA's systemic corruption and vote-trading practices determine World Cup participation and outcomes.
  • The US Men's National Team has learned to navigate FIFA's corrupt system to gain international competitive advantage.
Jul 09, 07:17 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • Brief market commentary noting US markets are relatively flat.
  • Commentary includes opinion on Supreme Court decisions regarding sex and sports eligibility.
  • Humorous observations comparing fast food brand quality and characteristics.
Jul 09, 06:21 AMRead on Substack →

13 High-Protein Meals, No Bland Chicken

Parent Fit Club
  • Provides 13 high-protein meal recipes (70-90g protein) designed for busy parents, avoiding monotonous options like plain chicken.
  • Features quick, affordable recipes like the 2-Minute Stack sandwich ($5, 79g protein) and Lazy Scramble ($4.56, 74g protein) that require minimal prep.
  • Includes practical container-based meal prep strategies for turning one cooking session into multiple meals throughout the week.
Jul 08, 03:19 PMRead on Substack →

12 YouTube Videos I'm Enjoying Right Now

Ted Gioia
  • Gioia curates 12 YouTube videos spanning music, social commentary, film, career advice, furniture, books, and fashion discovery.
  • Highlights include pianist Hohnen Ford's 'Wichita Lineman' rendition, a music plagiarism investigation dating to 2004, and emerging Peruvian-Nashville artist Fabrizio.
  • The post serves as a discovery vehicle for underrated creators and cultural content Gioia believes deserve wider attention.
Jul 08, 01:08 PMRead on Substack →

Greek salad: a recipe

Notorious Foodie
  • Greek salad success hinges on simplicity and quality ingredients—ultra-ripe heirloom tomatoes, good olive oil, capers, olives, and hand-broken feta.
  • Mixing Kalamata and Nocellara olives creates depth and complexity; caper brine in the dressing adds acidity and savouriness without heaviness.
  • Natural vegetable juices released during mixing create a 'Greek salad liquor' that ties the dish together and enhances flavor.
  • A sharp, savoury dressing with caper brine is essential; technique takes a backseat to ingredient quality and proper assembly.
Jul 08, 12:54 PMRead on Substack →

How to Get Happier and Fight Climate Change

Thinking in Bets
  • Elizabeth Dunn and Jiaying Zhao argue climate action should be reframed as an opportunity for joy and fulfillment, not guilt and burden.
  • Sustainability is achieved through doing something joyfully rather than attempting to do everything, reducing decision fatigue and moral anxiety.
  • The book challenges the narrative that environmental responsibility requires sacrifice of modern comforts and happiness.
  • Optimistic framing of climate solutions may increase engagement and long-term behavioral change compared to doom-and-gloom messaging.
Jul 08, 12:13 PMRead on Substack →

Islam, Football, and Armageddon

The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
  • Author, a former Muslim and Egyptian expatriate, grapples with emotional distance from his home country and cultural identity after over a decade abroad.
  • Reflects on a kind neighbor's genuine enthusiasm for Egypt's football team and the discomfort of concealing his true feelings about the nation and its values.
  • Explores the alienation of living in different worlds and the social friction between honest personal convictions and polite deception.
Jul 08, 11:11 AMRead on Substack →

The 66-Day Myth: What the Research Actually Says About How Long Habits Take

Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
  • The ubiquitous 21-day habit formation claim originated from plastic surgeon Maxwell Maltz's 1950s observation about patients adjusting to appearance changes, not scientific research on all habits.
  • Maltz's original statement included qualifiers like 'minimum' and 'about' that were stripped away when popularized through self-help books and corporate wellness programs.
  • Actual habit formation timelines vary significantly based on individual factors and habit type, contradicting the oversimplified cultural narrative.
Jul 08, 07:05 AMRead on Substack →

Burnt Honey Vinaigrette

Chris Kimball's Substack
  • Burnt honey vinaigrette made by caramelizing honey then deglazing with red wine vinegar creates a high-impact dressing perfect for tomatoes.
  • Many common condiments like ketchup, oyster sauce, and soy sauce do not require refrigeration despite popular assumptions, though storage affects flavor longevity.
  • Specialty oils should be stored long-term in refrigerator while items like ghee are shelf-stable at room temperature.
Jul 08, 07:02 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 12

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • US markets flat awaiting investor appetite for Hynix ADR debut; European markets slightly lower with tech dragging.
  • Asian markets mixed with Japan up 42bp and China down 1% as yen rises on Bank of Japan efforts to attract pension funds into domestic assets.
  • Google selling AI models to blacklisted groups and three AI trends colliding represent emerging regulatory and competitive concerns in TMT sector.
Jul 10, 05:00 AMRead on Substack →

The Price of the Seat

Cape Fear Advisors
  • Two identical AI infrastructure loan facilities rated 5 notches apart based solely on customer creditworthiness, not asset quality.
  • Tech giants borrowing long-term with no pledged collateral while infrastructure lenders like CoreWeave face steeper borrowing costs and shorter maturities.
  • The same companies supplying buildout and holding equity in buyers capture disproportionate economic value across the AI infrastructure stack.
  • Credit markets reveal structural asymmetries favoring established tech players over emerging infrastructure financiers.
Jul 09, 01:35 PMRead on Substack →

Chart of the Week - Bubble Watch

Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
  • Survey respondents identified 'AI Bubble Burst' as the top surprise for investors in H2, with supporting evidence from recent market weakness across semiconductor stocks.
  • Regional tech indices show significant declines: KOSPI down 20% off peak, U.S. SOX in a major topping pattern, and Japan's SoftBank down 33%.
  • U.S. semiconductor market cap weight has pulled back from record highs, updating a key indicator for bubble watch analysis.
Jul 09, 08:27 AMRead on Substack →

The Show Goes On

Andrew Sarna
  • Equity valuations remain elevated with uncertain forward returns despite recent market strength.
  • U.S. PMI shows broad economic expansion across all components with steady economic momentum.
  • NVIDIA B200 GPU rental rates surged despite broader compute demand concerns, signaling sustained AI infrastructure demand.
Jul 09, 05:45 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets open slightly higher amid Middle East tensions and light news flow overall.
  • Asian and European markets show modest gains with sector divergence (banks leading in Europe, autos lagging).
  • Semiconductor strength persists with NVIDIA B200 chip rental rates rising and zero availability, signaling continued AI infrastructure demand.
Jul 09, 05:05 AMRead on Substack →

Short Thoughts July 8, 2026 - NVDA, Neos, Hyperscalers, Jevons Paradox, and Compression

Michael Burry
  • Hyperscaler depreciation policies are economically driven levers, not physical measurements, with Amazon shortening server life to 5 years while Meta extended to 5.5 years despite identical hardware.
  • Chip obsolescence accelerates faster than traditional depreciation schedules; both NVIDIA's CEO and Microsoft's leader acknowledged rapid generational replacement making prior chips nearly worthless.
  • Market participants use divergent depreciation assumptions to manage earnings and cash flow, creating accounting arbitrage opportunities rather than reflecting underlying hardware physics.
Jul 09, 12:42 AMRead on Substack →

A Hawkish Mispricing

Eliant
  • AI trade momentum unwound this week with capital dispersal, while Middle East US-Iran tensions triggered broad-based weakness across equities.
  • S&P 500 outperformed with near-flat performance while small-cap index lagged by ~130bps, reflecting risk-off sentiment and geopolitical flight-to-quality.
  • Author launched Plutus dashboard for real-time actively managed portfolio tracking as cleaner alternative to traditional Substack publication model.
Jul 08, 07:30 PMRead on Substack →

Introducing Polymarket Institutional Research

The Oracle by Polymarket
  • Polymarket Institutional Research analyzes whether Anthropic's right-tail valuation upside is underpriced relative to recent market moves.
  • Anthropic has become a macro variable for the U.S. economy due to its ARR growth, capex spending, and productivity impact multipliers.
  • The analysis explores pricing of convexity points in Anthropic valuation futures contracts on Polymarket.
Jul 08, 03:09 PMRead on Substack →

Penguin Solutions Just Printed the Best Quarter in Its History

Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
  • Penguin Solutions posted record Q3 FY2026 results with 47.6% YoY revenue growth to $478.7M and 79% EPS growth to $0.84.
  • The company achieved a 10.6% GAAP operating margin while actually reducing operating expenses 3.4% YoY—demonstrating exceptional operating leverage.
  • Stock surged 20%+ to a 52-week high on 2.5x volume; the core question is valuation sustainability for parabolic AI-infrastructure names.
Jul 08, 01:15 PMRead on Substack →

Nobody Can Short This

Rebel Capitalist News Desk
  • SpaceX's record-breaking $135 IPO on June 12 surged to $226 then retreated to near its debut price, with early investors facing significant losses.
  • Google's $920 million monthly payment to SpaceX through June 2029 for AI compute capacity in xAI data centers was disclosed before the IPO.
  • The regulatory filing revealing Google's massive commitment raises questions about valuation mechanics and market structure beyond traditional IPO fundamentals.
Jul 08, 09:58 AMRead on Substack →

🚨Trade Alert 18: One Exit, One Trim, One New Position and Two Top-Ups!

Capitalist-Letters
  • Portfolio correlation with S&P 500 has dipped over two months, with most gains coming from pure alpha generation rather than market movements.
  • Strategy focused on broadening from concentrated AI exposure (40% of S&P weight in Dec-Jan) by hunting overlooked sectors and foreign markets.
  • Three key alpha sources: foreign markets, ignored S&P sectors like healthcare, and overlooked AI plays like AMD that significantly outperformed Nvidia YTD.
Jul 08, 07:31 AMRead on Substack →

Mind the Valuation Gap

AP Research
  • UK equity market, historically dismissed as too old-economy and low-growth, is increasingly attractive to overseas acquirers discovering undervalued assets.
  • British takeovers surged 250% year-on-year as international buyers recognize real value in neglected names with strong cash flows and strategic assets.
  • EasyJet exemplifies the trend with Castlelake's sweetened 690p-per-share offer, following 100% share price rise in two months as valuation gap closes.
Jul 08, 07:05 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 12

Sources and Methods

PAID
Doomberg
  • Ukraine's ongoing drone and missile campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure is deeply intertwined with global hydrocarbon flows and geopolitical conflict.
  • Energy analysts must cut through propaganda and weighted information sources to accurately assess impacts of kinetic warfare on critical energy infrastructure.
  • Discernment regarding information sources, regardless of nationality or political orientation, is essential to avoiding critical context gaps in energy market analysis.
Jul 10, 04:01 AMRead on Substack →

China’s Biomimetic Membrane and the Thermodynamic Logic of “New Quality Productive Forces”

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • Chinese biomimetic membrane technology enables extraction of critical metals (uranium, rare earths) from seawater and mining waste with significantly higher energy return on investment (EROEI).
  • This breakthrough exemplifies China's 'new quality productive forces' strategy: continuous efficiency improvements and supply chain resilience through waste recycling and reduced environmental impact.
  • Higher EROEI in upstream extraction raises competitive barriers for Western competitors attempting to catch up in critical metal supply chains.
Jul 09, 07:00 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • New Dalian Exchange coking coal futures tab launched with arb spreads tracking DCE coking coal vs CFR China basis.
  • Daily publication of arb spread data with historical charting helps gauge China's likelihood of entering seaborne coking coal markets.
  • Tool combines futures pricing with inventory levels to inform global coal price forecasting.
Jul 09, 05:13 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Seaborne coking coal prices drifted lower on July 9 with Australian PLV easing to $235.25/t, while U.S. Atlantic assessments remained largely unchanged.
  • SGX PLV futures showed modest contango with the front-month settling at $237.50/t and the curve strengthening to $246.50/t by month 24.
  • Global benchmark updates included Australian HCC at $192.95/t and LV PCI at $165.70/t, with USGC LV holding at $239.00/t.
Jul 09, 08:50 AMRead on Substack →

[FREE] Is Big Oil ‘Price Gouging’?

Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
  • West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen back below $70/barrel after spiking during the Strait of Hormuz conflict, returning to pre-conflict levels.
  • Market indicators show short-term oversupply as tankers exit the Strait of Hormuz and Asian import demand remains weak amid China's buyer's strike.
  • Despite crude price recovery, retail gasoline prices remain elevated relative to crude spot prices, suggesting downstream margin expansion or supply constraints.
Jul 09, 08:11 AMRead on Substack →

Age of discoveries

Irina Slav on energy
  • The Energy Institute's 2025 Statistical Review shows fossil fuels still account for 86% of global energy supply, indicating energy addition rather than transition.
  • Alternative metrics counting 'useful energy' suggest low-carbon sources may supply up to 30% when accounting for efficiency differences.
  • Recent major discoveries in energy data reveal the age of significant discoveries is far from over.
Jul 09, 07:00 AMRead on Substack →

EU Natural Gas: Is the Market Finally Starting to Wake Up?

Asymmetric Research
  • European natural gas (TTF) rebounded 20% in two weeks on renewed storage concerns flagged since March.
  • Weak gas injections and higher withdrawals due to heatwaves are exposing supply tightness that markets previously ignored.
  • Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated market attention to energy security risks.
Jul 09, 05:34 AMRead on Substack →

Crown Joule

environMENTAL
  • Jimmy Carter's 1970s renewable energy ambitions to reach 20% of U.S. energy by 2000 failed entirely as fossil fuels remained dominant.
  • The U.S. shale revolution unleashed by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing drove oil production to over 21 million bpd by 2025, triple 2008 levels.
  • Renewable energy policies have repeatedly shifted with presidential administrations, undermining sustained investment (panels removed under Reagan, reinstalled under Bush).
Jul 09, 04:02 AMRead on Substack →

Crude Build, Diesel Crunch: EIA Data Reveals US Inventory Inflection Amid Hormuz Diesel Crisis

Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
  • US-Iran hostilities reignited with strikes on Iranian targets after Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier crossing key red lines.
  • Oil price surge driven by renewed geopolitical conflict and disruption risks to critical shipping routes in the Persian Gulf.
  • EIA inventory data showed crude builds amid diesel supply tightness, reflecting complex supply-demand dynamics during escalating regional tensions.
Jul 08, 11:16 PMRead on Substack →

EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-3-26

Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
  • Weekly EIA data shows crude builds of 3.0 MMB and SPR draws of 6.2 MMB, with inventories 6% below seasonal average.
  • WTI spot pricing at $74 remains discounted relative to model-derived fair value of ~$100, suggesting potential undervaluation.
  • Crude exports hit 2026 lows while Middle Eastern imports fell to zero and Canadian imports returned to normal ranges.
Jul 08, 03:52 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Coal price regime shifted from rolling over to mixed/flat in July as market round-tripped spike from Shanxi mine accident.
  • China mitigating production losses with increased imports from Mongolia and Russia while Australian output reaches multi-year highs.
  • Atlantic market tightening post-DTA accident with India expected to contract cargoes post-monsoon as met coal dynamics shift.
Jul 08, 09:03 AMRead on Substack →

North American Oil Data Deck (July 2026)

Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
  • North American petroleum liquids production advanced 188 kbpd month-over-month to 31,350 kbpd in April with acceleration in both Canadian and US output.
  • Iran War rally delayed expected US shale contraction by allowing producers to hedge forward and de-risk additional volume growth despite high prices.
  • Continental petroleum product demand rose 177 kbpd month-over-month to 25,165 kbpd in April with strong US demand offsetting Canadian consumption slowdown.
Jul 08, 06:45 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 9

YWR: Shanghai Crash Fund

PAID
Erik@YWR
  • Shanghai experienced explosive urbanization and property market boom in 2005-2007 driven by massive infrastructure investment and investor euphoria.
  • CLSA China conferences were major gathering points where fund managers sought perspective on China's emergence as global economic center.
  • The author witnessed Shanghai's rapid transformation from rural areas to gleaming financial district reflecting broader Chinese economic miracle.
Jul 10, 06:04 AMRead on Substack →

The Demographic Drivers of Real Estate

Andrew Sarna
  • Africa's urban population surged from 248 million to 829 million (2000-2025), with over 100 cities now exceeding one million residents, creating massive housing demand.
  • North American housing supply remains inelastic while steady population growth drives prices higher; Toronto stagnation shows housing prices depend critically on population growth acceleration.
  • Office market faces structural headwinds with vacancy rising as remote work persists, though demand increasingly concentrates in newer high-quality buildings.
Jul 10, 05:41 AMRead on Substack →

Warsh Adds Brainpower & AI Destroys It

Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
  • Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to unilaterally collect tolls and require cargo manifests from shipping, exploiting ambiguous language in Trump's Versailles MOU.
  • Trump administration prioritized geopolitical wins with vague treaty language that Iranian hardliners interpreted to secure $12 billion in sanctions relief and maritime control leverage.
  • Oil markets initially relaxed on ceasefire optimism, but the PGSA arrangement creates new geopolitical risk and potential supply disruption mechanisms masked as bureaucratic procedures.
Jul 10, 01:33 AMRead on Substack →

𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚒𝚛𝚌𝚊𝚜𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝟸𝟻𝟶 𝚍𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚊𝚛-𝚢𝚎𝚗.

Hugh Hendry
  • Hugh Hendry forecasted USD/JPY reaching 200 since October 2022 when major banks predicted reversion to 110 equilibrium.
  • Investment banks failed to recognize that prices move independently of economic explanations, which arrive only after market moves.
  • Independent contrarian thinking has historically outperformed consensus forecasting despite initial dismissal.
Jul 09, 03:54 PMRead on Substack →

FX Trade

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • New Zealand currency is strengthening rapidly following its recent slowdown period.
  • The market may be underestimating the pace of hiking cycles that New Zealand could implement.
  • This presents a potential FX trading opportunity based on monetary policy divergence.
Jul 09, 07:01 AMRead on Substack →

The State, the Company and the Strategic Economy

Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
  • Japan's Meiji Restoration state-directed industrialization model created zaibatsu industrial conglomerates through strategic asset transfers, contrasting sharply with chaotic 1990s Russian oligarch emergence during institutional collapse.
  • State-enabled development with nationalist stewardship differs fundamentally from privatization amid governance breakdown; Japanese families built long-term industrial dynasties while Russian oligarchs extracted assets during systemic decay.
  • Strategic industrial policy and state capitalism remain relevant frameworks for understanding modern critical minerals races and economic competition between nations.
Jul 09, 12:35 AMRead on Substack →

When In Doubt, Diversify

Prometheus Research
  • Macro Regime Probabilities show a flattening distribution of potential economic outcomes across the four key regimes (Growth/Inflation combinations).
  • Flat regime probability distributions result in flattened expected returns across asset classes, reducing clear outperformance signals.
  • A diversified global asset mix is recommended when macro regime uncertainty is high and regime-specific asset correlations weaken.
  • The flattening suggests markets are pricing in elevated uncertainty around both growth and inflation trajectories, favoring broad diversification over concentrated bets.
Jul 08, 11:32 AMRead on Substack →

June 2026 BA Real Estate update

BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
  • Buenos Aires real estate market remains active on the cash side despite recent weakness in mortgage financing metrics.
  • Year-on-year mortgage data showing significant deterioration, marking one of the worst periods since the market recovery began.
Jul 08, 10:35 AMRead on Substack →

Deficits, Dollars and Dominance

Andrew Sarna
  • Permanent government deficits across developed economies are widening even during expansions, creating a strong case for hard assets and alternative stores of value.
  • Debt-to-GDP ratios continue rising globally, with Japan, France, and Canada among the most indebted when including household debt.
  • Financial repression—keeping interest rates artificially low to reduce debt burden—appears to be an emerging policy path, as seen in Japan.
  • Despite persistent predictions of dollar decline, the U.S. currency remains the strongest major reserve currency with no viable successor, as the Chinese yuan has actually lost global reserve share.
Jul 08, 06:31 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 9

Labour Party antisemitism is back

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • UK Labour's Andy Burnham publicly stated the party 'didn't get it right' on Gaza, undermining Keir Starmer's efforts to suppress antisemitism within the party.
  • Recent Labour government actions including defending Hamas figures and repeating false claims about Gaza aid contradict stated commitments to zero tolerance on antisemitism.
  • Burnham's statements echo antisemitic narratives while framing pressure on Israel as consistent with fighting antisemitism, exposing internal party divisions.
Jul 10, 01:38 AMRead on Substack →

Rahm Emanuel's Speech On The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is A Mess

John Aziz
  • Rahm Emanuel argues unconditional U.S. support for Israel has enabled aggressive settlement expansion and Gaza blockades without consequences.
  • Emanuel advocates for conditional American aid tied to Israeli compliance with stated U.S. concerns about regional peace.
  • Speech represents shift in U.S. diplomatic approach toward Middle East policy and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Jul 09, 04:55 PMRead on Substack →

Americans Aren't Rejecting Capitalism. They're Rejecting What Central Planners Built After 2008

Garrett Baldwin
  • 95% of Americans report an affordability crisis, with 68% believing the country is in decline.
  • 51% say capitalism isn't working and 75% believe billionaires hold excessive political power.
  • Post-2008 central planning policies, not capitalism itself, may be driving public rejection of the economic system.
  • Survey data reveals deep structural dissatisfaction with both economic and democratic institutions.
Jul 09, 02:25 PMRead on Substack →

Bombing Iran isn’t a strategy

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • Trump's ceasefire with Iran collapsed after renewed Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. strikes on over 80 Iranian military targets.
  • Iran responded with strikes on U.S. installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, followed by a complete halt in Strait of Hormuz traffic, escalating regional risk.
  • Sustained military escalation lacks a coherent political strategy to resolve underlying tensions, reducing it to tactical strikes without strategic objectives.
Jul 09, 03:15 AMRead on Substack →

That Ceasefire in Full & Binface in Clacton

Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
  • US-Iran ceasefire collapsed with US conducting offensive airstrikes on Iranian targets while Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf region.
  • Brent crude surged ~10% for the week toward $79/barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions and threats to Iranian oil export infrastructure.
  • Trump distributed divergent geopolitical rewards at NATO summit: sanctions relief for Syria, air-defense missiles for Ukraine, F-35 approval for Turkey, while denying Albania the 2027 summit bid.
Jul 09, 01:14 AMRead on Substack →

Is Latvia an apartheid state?

Roy Ben-Tzvi
  • Latvia denies voting rights to ~162,000 permanent residents and taxpayers, yet avoids the 'apartheid state' label commonly applied to Israel.
  • The definition of apartheid based solely on unequal political rights is applied inconsistently across different countries and contexts.
  • The post challenges double standards in international criticism by comparing Latvia's restrictions on non-citizen voting to Israel's situation.
Jul 08, 04:47 PMRead on Substack →

The Iran-U.S. Ceasefire Is Over

John Aziz
  • Trump declared the Iran-U.S. ceasefire memorandum 'over' following renewed violence in the Strait of Hormuz and new American strikes on Iran.
  • The 60-day interim agreement negotiated under Pakistani mediation with VP Vance has collapsed after tanker incidents and U.S. license revocations on Iranian oil sales.
  • The author argues the Iranian regime seeks ongoing conflict with the West and Israel, making any peace deal fundamentally untenable.
Jul 08, 02:45 PMRead on Substack →

Trump v. Barbara: The Court Has Fundamentally Redefined Citizenship

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Supreme Court in Trump v. Barbara (6-3 decision) redefined citizenship, addressing whether the 14th Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship to children of those unlawfully present.
  • Justice Roberts' majority opinion reframes American citizenship as 'the right to have rights,' departing from Founders' principle that rights precede political arrangement.
  • The decision fundamentally alters the legal framework for automatic citizenship, with implications for immigration and constitutional interpretation.
  • Justices Thomas and Gorsuch dissented, signaling deep division over how to interpret the 14th Amendment's citizenship clause in modern context.
Jul 08, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • US markets are trading lower amid Iran tensions, while consumer technology has become dramatically cheaper and more accessible.
  • The DSA's radical platform—including police abolition, property expropriation, and energy socialization—will likely lose 49 states in any general election.
  • Extreme left-wing factions will cannibalize moderate candidates who attempt to walk back the party's most radical policies, following revolutionary dynamics.
Jul 08, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 8

How to Build an Agentic OS with Claude Fable 5 🤖

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Claude 3.5 introduces a paradigm shift where model intelligence is no longer the binding constraint; context window of one million tokens enables extended autonomous operation.
  • The bottleneck has moved from model capability to operational framework—an 'agentic OS' providing delegation, verification, budgets, and earned trust mechanisms.
  • Cost efficiency at $50 per million tokens enables sophisticated multi-agent systems, but success now depends on properly structuring governance rather than raw intelligence.
Jul 10, 04:59 AMRead on Substack →

OpenAI GPT-5.6: AI Could Do Anything, Then It Met ARC-AGI-3

Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
  • GPT-5.6 scores only 7.8% on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark despite excelling at agentic tasks and advanced mathematical problems.
  • Model's performance gap highlights fundamental limitations in artificial general intelligence despite impressive capabilities in narrow domains.
  • Result reveals significant reliability and generalization gaps in current large language models.
Jul 09, 03:46 PMRead on Substack →

Is Fable worth the hype?

Khe Hy
  • Anthropic's Fable model requires new prompting approaches and techniques compared to earlier AI models like Opus.
  • Key technique: provide context for the larger task and intended audience, not just the immediate request.
  • Claude Cowork update enables cloud-based agent scheduling and execution, enabling autonomous workflow automation.
  • Practical applications include pre-meeting prep, inbox triage, and note organization running on schedule before user engagement.
Jul 09, 10:13 AMRead on Substack →

The AI Capex Web

Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
  • Hyperscaler capital spending is projected at $740 billion in 2026, rising to nearly $1 trillion by 2027, with Amazon guiding $200 billion alone.
  • AI capex flows through a densely interconnected supply chain where capital enters wide across five hyperscalers but exits narrow through chokepoint companies.
  • The supply chain structure creates concentrated value capture opportunities for companies controlling critical nodes in chip, rack, and infrastructure layers.
Jul 09, 06:59 AMRead on Substack →

Claude Managed Agents Quietly Became the Most Important AI Infrastructure Bet of 2026 🤖

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Anthropic's Claude Managed Agents have rapidly evolved in three months with memory, multi-agent coordination, and autonomous scheduled deployments now in public beta.
  • AWS and Google shipped competing managed agent harnesses within two weeks of Claude's launch, signaling commoditization of the infrastructure layer.
  • Early production economics show companies achieving 3x revenue growth to $10M+ annualized run rates using Claude agents, validating the commercial viability.
Jul 09, 04:29 AMRead on Substack →

MGX catapults Abu Dhabi to centre of global AI evolution

Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
  • MGX, Abu Dhabi's new AI-focused sovereign wealth fund, raised $49 billion in capital—reportedly the largest dedicated pool of cash for AI globally.
  • MGX operates as a hybrid venture capital and corporate accelerator (Nvidia-style model), with dealmakers earning performance fees and carry on AI exits.
  • The fund leverages UAE's diplomatic and financial relationships to attract third-party capital from sovereign funds, pension funds, and institutions across Europe, Asia, North America, and the GCC.
  • This structure represents a major shift in how Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth ecosystem deploys petrodollar surpluses into transformational AI investments.
Jul 08, 12:33 PMRead on Substack →

The AI Industry Has a Really Dark Secret You're Better Off Not Knowing

Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
  • AI models exhibit hidden internal representations and 'latent language' that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are actively studying and attempting to control.
  • The industry acknowledges these behaviors as training artifacts, but interpretability researchers remain uncertain about the true purpose and implications of AI internal communication.
  • Author questions official explanations and suggests darker, uncontrollable phenomena may underlie AI decision-making in ways that resist human understanding and oversight.
Jul 08, 09:01 AMRead on Substack →

Stop waiting for AI you can trust. Borrow the 500-year-old trick that made untrustworthy agents useful anyway. (Ye…

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • Author built a multi-agent AI system with internal oversight structures (QA, auditing, appeals process) that successfully caught and corrected employee fabrication.
  • Demonstrates that untrustworthy individual AI agents can produce reliable outcomes when properly constrained within institutional frameworks, mirroring 500-year-old organizational designs.
  • Challenges the common executive objection that AI agents cannot be trusted by showing how systematic verification, documentation, and accountability can manage unreliable components.
Jul 08, 08:02 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 6

I Am Going To Lay Out My Trading And Investing Framework

Capital Flows
  • Interest rates are the foundational price signal for all global macro trading and capital allocation decisions across asset classes.
  • Conviction building requires evidence-based research and coherence across all moving parts, with aggressiveness modulated by supporting evidence rather than equal weighting of pros and cons.
  • Using intraday/intraweek volatility edge to establish positions allows holding longer-term views; cross-asset confirmation (CADJPY, oil, futures contracts) frames entries and validates directional thesis.
Jul 09, 09:50 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Mosaic fertilizer production delays in Brazil due to sulfur shortages may signal broader phosphate fertilizer supply constraints despite relaxing urea prices since May.
  • Chinese soybean demand uncertainty contrasts with Chinese South American trading activity, suggesting confusion about future import appetite.
  • Rice prices are approaching $14, wheat trading dynamics shifted earlier than expected, and ranchers may be responding to market signal changes.
Jul 09, 06:56 PMRead on Substack →

Percept Shift: A Setup Is Not a Trade

Sara
  • A valid trade requires alignment of three elements: market condition, strategy, and trader execution—if any one is missing, no trade should be taken.
  • Strategies designed for directional movement underperform in choppy consolidation conditions, requiring traders to assess market type before entry.
  • Technical signals like order flow carry different weight depending on market conditions, with lower reliability during consolidation versus clear trends.
Jul 09, 08:16 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Soybeans rallied 45 cents Monday after weekend opening pop, with open interest up 65k in two days signaling spec buying rather than structural bullishness.
  • Farmer and spec selling pressures oppose weather traders and Chinese buying, with divergent price expectations based on weather model selection.
  • Ag specialists view 5% soybean moves as overpricing, but weather traders and geopolitical actors prioritize supply risk over current price levels.
Jul 08, 08:18 PMRead on Substack →

'Vibecasting'

Nico from AiQ
  • Crude trade delivered +9% gains over two sessions with half position closed; refined product tightness and elevated crack spreads create structural tailwind for biofuel demand.
  • Governments may view food/biofuels as solution to fuel constraints, with cheap corn and vegetable oils finding demand as refined products remain tight globally.
  • Friday WASDE update will be overshadowed by critical weekend weather setup with extreme model variance capable of wrong-siding both bulls and bears; commercials and macro funds seek sell-grain opportunities into mid-month seasonality.
Jul 08, 04:51 PMRead on Substack →

Trading Post July 8, 2026

Michael Burry
  • IV15 (expected 15% compounded annual returns over 15 years) is Burry's core valuation benchmark, derived from discounted cash flow analysis rather than simple P/E ratios.
  • Quality adjustments to owner's earnings account for stock-based compensation, accounting issues, and other factors that impact true business value.
  • The methodology uses a four-stage cash flow model for inflecting growth companies and handles special cases like serial acquirers.
  • Low multiples alone do not equal value; business quality determines whether a stock trades above or below the IV15 target.
Jul 08, 01:01 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 4

Polymarket Institutional Research

Cheap Convexity
  • Institutional adoption of prediction markets accelerating as liquidity depth increases in platforms like Polymarket.
  • Prediction market research infrastructure is evolving rapidly, with frameworks around conditional probability and Bayesian updating becoming portable from traditional asset classes.
  • Polymarket Institutional Research emerging as the go-to venue for sophisticated institutional analysis in the prediction market space.
  • Historical parallel: research ecosystems in equities, macro, credit, and commodities took years to mature; prediction markets may compress this timeline using existing infrastructure.
Jul 09, 11:03 AMRead on Substack →

Why Weight Loss Triggers Weight Regain

Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
  • Weight loss triggers a 15% drop in resting metabolic rate, persisting even after weight stabilizes at new lower levels.
  • The hypothalamus defends a set weight range through coordinated hormonal signals that interpret weight loss as a survival threat.
  • The body's setpoint system actively opposes weight maintenance below defended range through increased hunger, weakened satiety, and reduced energy expenditure.
Jul 09, 06:36 AMRead on Substack →

It Felt as Though I'd Been Shot Right in the Chest by a Gazan Sniper! The Feeling Stayed With Me for Nearly a Week…

Tzlil Berko
  • Author has completed a substantial master's thesis of PhD-level complexity and originality that addresses a research question on neuroscience and emotional response.
  • Methodology and experimental design remain proprietary due to intellectual property considerations and foundation for planned doctoral research.
  • The thesis reportedly produced unexpectedly visceral physical reactions in the author during data collection that persisted for nearly a week.
Jul 09, 04:08 AMRead on Substack →

Tech · 3

Your computer already told on you

Gold and geopolitics
  • 19-year-old hacker Peter Stokes used VPN, ngrok tunneling, and IP hopping across multiple countries but was still identified and caught.
  • Technical anonymization measures proved insufficient against advanced forensic and attribution techniques employed by law enforcement.
  • Case demonstrates how computer systems can reveal identity despite deliberate operational security efforts.
Jul 09, 05:02 PMRead on Substack →

This Israeli Team Is Rethinking Prostate Surgery.

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • An Israeli medical team is developing innovative surgical approaches to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), which affects over 50% of men in their 60s.
  • Traditional BPH treatment comes with significant side effects; the new Israeli method offers an alternative to conventional approaches.
  • The article explains the biology of prostate growth and why it becomes a widespread but underreported men's health issue.
Jul 08, 01:59 PMRead on Substack →

Apple just said a lot about Google

Cape Fear Advisors
  • Apple announced a $30 billion multiyear deal with Broadcom for US-based chip manufacturing, signaling strategic independence from certain supply chains.
  • Broadcom simultaneously filed an SEC report extending their collaboration through 2031 for custom silicon across multiple Apple product generations.
  • Apple's voluntary press release and Broadcom's SEC filing together reveal a coordinated long-term partnership with significant manufacturing and political dimensions.
  • The timing and disclosure method suggest both companies are emphasizing domestic production commitment and deepening their technological relationship.
Jul 08, 12:50 PMRead on Substack →

Crypto · 2

My Update On PURR and The Future Of Hyperliquid

Capital Flows
  • PURR's modified NAV volatility mechanism compounds returns through share issuance above ~1.1 and buybacks below ~0.9, with mNAV averaging 1.04 since December launch.
  • Warrant and lockup concerns are overstated; all warrants remain out-of-money and sponsor shares remain fully locked with zero sales executed.
  • PURR's fixed expense base (4 employees, 100% token staking) spreads more efficiently than traditional crypto ETFs as asset base grows, with ~$2B HYPE holdings providing ecosystem funding capacity.
Jul 08, 10:45 PMRead on Substack →

Solidus

Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
  • The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index (Solidus) fell nearly 20% from a May 2026 peak, down from nearly doubling since December inception.
  • Token valuations in AI are undergoing significant depreciation, reflecting earlier predictions that AI space valuations were unsustainable.
  • The author draws parallels between USD depreciation (tracked by rising gold prices) and token devaluation, framing both within historical economic cycles.
  • The correction aligns with macro concerns about inflated AI valuations and the need for repricing across the AI and crypto token sectors.
Jul 08, 12:18 PMRead on Substack →