★ Priority · 11
HOW CLEARINGHOUSES PRICE RISK
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Clearinghouses have shifted from peripheral participants to central players in interest rate derivative markets since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Regulatory capital charges on uncleared trades pushed OTC derivative central clearance rates to approximately 80% since 2013.
- Interest rate derivative notional outstanding has grown from $48 trillion in 1998 to nearly $700 trillion, approximately 6 times global GDP.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Oil price declined 8% following US-Iran hostilities pause, with suspicious timing just days before the FOMC meeting.
- AI market momentum has shifted with some bullish enthusiasm moving from AI stocks to energy sector bets on higher oil demand.
- Thread explores circularity questions in AI valuations and market behavior related to central bank policy dynamics.
‘Why I Left the Left.’ Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Democratic operative turned Trump voter exemplifies broader working-class exodus from Democratic Party to Republican coalition.
- Former labor secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer discusses firing by Trump and viability of pro-union GOP movement.
- Geopolitical tensions with Iran, AI model safety concerns, and broader political realignment feature in daily news digest.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Iran transit route tensions elevate geopolitical risk while CXMT Chinese DRAM chip IPO pops 6x on first day amid crowded out supply.
- China's entry into semiconductor markets could displace Western chip producers; historical precedent suggests rapid profit erosion when China enters industries.
- Crude down $5 despite ongoing Middle East escalation as market prioritizes supply chain dynamics over immediate conflict risk.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- High short positioning in Brent means selloffs are shallower; trader plans to exit August BNO calls and sell half Jan 2027 calls on next escalation.
- Trump unlikely to agree to Iranian Strait of Hormuz control, reducing immediate deal probability despite ceasefire headlines.
- Energy equities require high certainty on supply depletion timeline before re-entering positions; headlines used repeatedly to depress oil prices.
A Semi-Theory of Almost Everything
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Semiconductor index gained 88% in Q2 2026 at 60% annualized volatility, but gave back 17% in three July weeks.
- 40% of semiconductor price moves and 60% of tape character shift attributable to changed behavior of levered product holders and price-insensitive vehicles.
- Market plumbing changes can cascade across asset classes wherever similar structural dynamics exist, not just semiconductors.
- Micron surged 230% while Nvidia (largest semiconductor holding) gained only 15%, revealing divergent dynamics within the AI trade narrative.
hedging is for gardeners
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Substack now offers Pangram AI detection tool to scan what portion of posts are AI-written versus human-authored.
- Author manages 140 Substack subscriptions but deeply reads only ~5%, revealing widespread untapped value in newsletter content.
- Automated jobs process incoming distributions with AI assistants to extract value from subscription volume at scale.
- Discussion covers retail options trading patterns and includes practical guidance on organizing email intake for information extraction.
Something Doesn't Feel Right.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- S&P 500 positioning is at 95th percentile crowded long while VIX is at 1st percentile crowded short, creating extreme asymmetry and risk of major volatility spike.
- Multiple markets show extreme positioning signals: copper net-long extreme, while SOFR, CAD, TY, FF, FV, TU, and WTI are net-short extremes presenting tactical opportunities.
- Confluence of signals including extreme positioning, sentiment extremes, rising rates, and oil shocks suggests stage is being set for significant volatility into later Q3.
The Key Question on AI * - Part II
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- If OpenAI or Anthropic falter, the $300 billion backlog of hyperscaler AI investments faces catastrophic risk with no satisfactory contingency plan from bulls beyond vague assumptions.
- Warren Buffett's $10 billion Google investment at age 100 amid 8% Nasdaq decline could represent peak FOMO in AI trade, with risk of 'Buffett Meme Top' marking the AI cycle high.
- The foundation of the 'AI Grand Plan' appears to rest on uncertain economic assumptions, raising questions about whether massive capex commitments are sustainable.
The Ideological Rape of New York City
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Progressive leaders including Amal Clooney and Zohran Mamdani are defending the ICC's arrest warrant for Netanyahu despite the prosecutor's sexual misconduct allegations.
- The pattern reflects ideological alignment rather than consistent human rights principles, according to the author.
- Recent violent incidents in New York City demonstrate real-world consequences of anti-Israel activism in American cities.
Ferg’s Finds
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- AI boom is being priced as a technology cycle when it actually functions as a debt-financed real estate cycle with leverage and fixed supply mechanics.
- Data center buildout mirrors property development: entitled land, debt financing against hard assets, and take-or-pay lease contracts disguising commercial obligations.
- Real estate cycles break when demand growth decelerates against fixed supply, not when demand collapses—the same mechanics from 2008 apply.
Macro · 16
Managing The Death Shot
BUSHYâ„¢ and Acorn Weekly
- BUSHY portfolio has outperformed year-to-date in July driven by physical commodities (oil), energy equities, and managed futures allocations.
- Portfolio holds primarily short fixed income positions across the curve via trend-following strategies, with minimal long duration exposure.
- Fed meeting this week creates exposure to surprise rate hikes, with STIR pricing indicating 34% probability of unexpected policy action.
AI’s $700 Billion Question
Andrew Sarna
- Alphabet's capex increase to $205B and negative free cash flow raise concerns about AI investment returns despite revenue beat.
- 88% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings but not being rewarded with gains, marking the first time this occurred since 2024.
- Oil prices elevated by Middle East tensions, pushing U.S. 10Y yields up 13bps as Fed approaches policy meeting.
🔥Four ZeroHedge front pages in four weeks. What paid subscribers saw that others missed.
Asymmetric Research
- Four ZeroHedge front-page articles on gold, uranium, and EU natural gas accumulated 22.7k combined views over four weeks.
- Paid subscribers received positioning analysis, investment implications, and proprietary equity valuations beyond macro story coverage.
- Content demonstrates value-add of model-driven research and strategic insights for institutional investors.
[Chart] The Big Bad Bond Bear
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Long-term treasuries in 6-year bear market with -50% capital losses from peak; TLT investors flat-to-negative over 20 years after inflation adjustment.
- Bonds characterized by unloved sentiment, cheap valuations, and 25-year low allocations presenting potential contrarian setup.
- Analysis suggests compelling risk-reward opportunity in bond market despite continued macro and technical headwinds.
AI Emigrates to Shanghai But Isn't Taking Your Job After All
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- U.S. and Iran pause strikes over weekend with ceasefire talks, triggering sell-off of fear trades: oil -7%, gold +1%, dollar weakened.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities suggest potential weakness in regional truce despite broader market relief.
- Fed policy meeting complicated by oil spike/reversal narrative; inflation scare appears less acute after 7% single-session crude decline.
Mythic Atlas Report: Issue 04
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Growth engine remains in Stage 4 Constructive with price above ten-month line, signaling continued risk-on positioning.
- Consumer spending block is the weakest link at 33% positive, needing two more indicators to flip and provide domestic-demand floor.
- Month-end data releases (personal income/outlays Thursday, U-Mich sentiment Friday) will entirely rewrite the Consumer panel in the last 36 hours before month-end market moves.
Weekly Macro Note: FOMC Week, Asia Bounce?, Takes Two to TACO, Crude Roadmap, & More
MacroEdge Research
- FOMC week ahead will be critical for setting Federal Reserve expectations under new leadership, with geopolitical tensions (Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb traffic) adding complexity.
- Second half of 2026 presents a binary outcome: either a final rally followed by Fed rate hikes due to higher inflation, or sideways intervention through midterms with AI/momentum trade losing momentum.
- Stock market functioning as the economy in this 'i-shaped' regime means broader macro forces beyond traditional fundamentals will drive outcomes through midyear.
Walk in the Pines #407
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Marcus Aurelius stoic wisdom on valuing what you have without overvaluing it applies to current market conditions and risk management.
- Financial press highlights 'financial candyfloss' concerns and the return of monetarism focus, suggesting renewed attention to money supply dynamics.
- Weekly curated reads and listens cover merchant banking history, Russell Clark's monetary commentary, and Brendan Greeley's take on monetarism revival.
The Funeral
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Central banks (Fed, BOE, BOJ) are ending the era of dovish policy; the debate is now whether they will hike preemptively or wait and risk market punishment.
- Iran used prior ceasefire periods to sell oil and rebuild missiles; alleged U.S. interceptor shortages could embolden Iran to demand more concessions in negotiations.
- Major economic data this week includes durable goods, housing prices, PCE inflation, GDP, and international central bank decisions, with month-end dynamics adding complexity.
A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 26, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Oil rally pushed Brent above $100 for first time since spring, driven by geopolitical tensions in Middle East.
- Second consecutive week of AI trade selling devastated Tesla and Alphabet, with Nasdaq down 2.1% while Dow outperformed.
- Bond market began pricing Fed rate hikes for first time in months as crude surged and risk assets declined.
- Damage concentrated in crowded trades (Nasdaq) while energy and industrial names benefited from macro shifts and earnings strength.
Insider Newsletter: Issue #333
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- Newsletter covers broad geopolitical and economic themes including Middle East tensions, EU policy changes, and value investing considerations.
- Content includes guest interview on UAE situation and multiple thematic sections on macro conditions and market developments.
- Discussion of broader societal trends including permanent underclasses, truth suppression, and tax implications for investors.
- Multi-author analysis from Chris, Brad, and Lucas examining current week's major economic and political developments.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Silver and platinum are breaking out of decade-long consolidations while China is dramatically increasing gold and silver imports despite price weakness, signaling major central bank demand.
- Gold now exceeds Treasuries in central bank reserves; Tether is out-buying China on gold purchases; and gold has become the largest US export—reflecting major reallocation to commodities.
- Global bond yields are surging to GFC highs with 30-year yields above 5%, TLT near historic lows, and US margin debt hitting record 6.2% of M2, indicating potential financial stress ahead.
The Week That Was, The Week that Is: Growth Holds On, Pricing Pressure Remains
Global Macro Method
- Week ending July 24 showed resilient US activity—claims at 187k, services PMI 53.6, manufacturing 53.8—but markets repriced duration and valuation assumptions rather than pricing recession.
- Damage concentrated in megacap tech, AI beneficiaries, long-duration credit, and rate-sensitive equities as rising real yields forced cost-of-capital adjustment amid oil shock.
- Incoming Fed decision, US GDP/inflation data, S&P 500 earnings, and BoE/BoJ policy decisions will determine whether this is a valuation reset or beginning of something more consequential.
China Weekly Wrap: The Carrot and the Stick Edition
Panda Perspectives
- China issued its first official tax guidance on offshore trusts, making structures in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Caribbean jurisdictions transparent and taxable annually.
- The move represents the 'stick' in a broader rebalancing program that includes currency strength, approved capital rails, and trade surplus management.
- A 90-day amnesty period allows wealthy individuals to voluntarily comply before enforcement intensifies on trillions of dollars held offshore.
The Future Costs of Current Suppression
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Late investment cycle indicators accumulate including flattening yield curves, strong commodities, and persistent economic surprises alongside weakening global liquidity.
- US Treasury 10-year yields are breaking out from recent patterns driven by rising rate expectations, while term premia remain flat suggesting growing appetite for safety.
- Central banks are beginning to curtail liquidity impulses, a shift reflected in weakening crypto baskets and pulling liquidity-sensitive assets downward.
Redeye Macro Note: A Look at a Closed Hormuz & the Bab, Saturday TACOs - Will it Continue?
MacroEdge Research
- Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab closures combined with elevated oil prices are creating geopolitical headwinds damaging consumer economies across 80-90% income levels.
- Oil price rebounds to levels that threaten the ruling political party's midterm prospects, creating pressure for tactical interventions despite short-term nature of relief.
- Multiple TACO (geopolitical) headlines in a single day signal accelerating regional tensions with potential for commodity price volatility driven by supply route disruptions.
Politics · 12
💬 New thread from Winston Marshall
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Upcoming guest Steven Barrett will discuss the Fabian Society, a historical political organization.
- Host is soliciting subscriber questions and topic suggestions for the interview.
- Focus appears to be on historical and political movements relevant to contemporary discourse.
Jihadism Arrives In Berlin
John Aziz
- An Islamist jihadist attacked Berlin's Pride celebration with a vehicle, killing one and injuring many in what police identified as a terror attack.
- The attacker, identified as a known Islamist militant sympathizer, targeted a Pride event reflecting jihadist ideology and strategic use of fear.
- Media often obscures the ideological motivation behind such attacks, describing them as generic 'extremism' or 'hate' rather than naming the governing jihadist doctrine.
There is nothing surprising about the Berlin pride attack
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Argues that the Berlin Pride attack by an Islamist suspect is unsurprising given historical patterns of Islamic terrorism targeting symbols of Western values and LGBTQ+ events.
- Criticizes media outlets for expressing shock at the attack despite years of warnings about Islamist threats to Western freedoms and gay pride celebrations.
- Contends that Islamist ideology fundamentally opposes multiple aspects of Western society including homosexuality, free expression, women's equality, and secular values.
Collapse of the Blood Libels
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Claims that major allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza—including disputed Lancet studies, AirWars reports, and NGO conclusions—are collapsing as evidence emerges.
- Criticizes international institutions, media outlets, and NGOs for spreading what he characterizes as 'blood libels' against Israel without adequate evidence.
- Argues that mainstream media outlets that heavily promoted Gaza war allegations have failed to report on the unraveling of these claims and the revised assessments of the conflict.
How Chicago stops voters from deciding what matters
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago's six non-binding referendum questions are essentially polls with no legal authority to implement policy changes.
- Mayor Johnson's preferred millionaires tax measure failed to make the ballot, contrasting with NYC's binding charter reform propositions.
- Non-binding measures limit voter power to actually determine municipal governance compared to binding structural reforms.
- The article examines how procedural mechanics in different cities create vastly different levels of voter control over policy outcomes.
Did Ukraine Make the Biggest Nuclear Mistake in History?
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Ukraine's 1990s decision to surrender its third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances now appears to have backfired, reshaping global nuclear proliferation calculations.
- Governments worldwide are reinterpreting Ukraine's outcome and questioning whether giving up nuclear weapons is ever prudent, likely accelerating nuclear programs in Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Poland.
- The strategic lesson from Ukraine may increase attractiveness of preventive wars and fundamentally alter the post-Cold War order's core promise that countries are more secure without nuclear weapons.
UK as Geopolitical Jim Cramer, Locking Profits, and More Floating Steel
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- UK has become geopolitically impotent, unable to project power beyond its borders despite City of London financial institutions remaining globally significant.
- Geopolitical variables are stacking against UK sovereignty over Falkland Islands as the Western Hemisphere becomes exclusively a US geodomain and UK influence in Southern Cone diminishes.
- Rising geopolitical entropy and UK elite focus on virtue signaling rather than strategic positioning increases uncertainty around Falklands sovereignty and Rockhopper Exploration's flagship Sea Lion project.
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
The Brawl Street Journal
- China has positioned itself in a 'heads I win, tails you lose' geopolitical bet across Europe, exemplified by Sinochem's ownership of one-third of Italian tiremaker Pirelli.
- Through board seats and insights, Chinese state ownership generates multiple payoff channels: dividends, corporate influence, and technology transfer opportunities to competitors.
- Italy's recent expansion of 'golden power' laws limits Chinese board representation but demonstrates the structural vulnerability created by strategic minority stakes.
Iran’s Alliance With Russia Is Pulling It Into More Wars
John Aziz
- Iran's deepening military and strategic alliance with Russia over Ukraine demonstrates that Tehran cannot pursue proxy conflicts while remaining insulated from direct escalation.
- Ukrainian attacks on Iranian-linked vessels transporting military cargo to Russia show the tangible security costs of the Iran-Russia partnership competing against Western deterrence.
- Iran's ideological commitment to opposing the West has historically motivated geopolitical choices that increasingly drag the nation into conflicts beyond its control or interest.
Mamdani Made an Empty Promise to Arrest Netanyahu. And Revealed the Problem with the Free Palestine Fervor.
Kaizen Asiedu
- American politicians are making unenforceable promises about international policy, particularly regarding Palestine arrests.
- The Palestine cause has become an ideological purity test that transcends its geographic origin, overshadowing local political issues.
- Palestinian flags appeared prominently at American protests about immigration policy, revealing a disconnect between domestic concerns and internationalist movements.
Iran has Trump exactly where it wants him
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Iran's diplomatic strategy operates on survival and revolutionary prestige rather than transactional negotiation, making it resistant to deals that appear to yield to American pressure.
- A ceasefire proposal and June memorandum offering $300 billion in reconstruction and sanctions relief have stalled as Tehran refuses any settlement that admits American bombing effectiveness.
- Trump's pause on bombing to pursue diplomacy creates the appearance of flexibility but leaves limited maneuver room as Iranian incentives to accept a weakened position are minimal.
Confronting Brutality Requires Brutal Honesty
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly named left-wing extremism as a major counterterrorism blind spot comparable to Islamic terrorism.
- Western governments have developed robust counter-Islamic terror infrastructure but dismissed left-wing violence as aberrational despite its organized international operations.
- Left-wing extremists operate with similar structure to Islamists—organized recruitment, training, funding, and goal to destroy Western civilization and institutions.
Markets · 11
The Bar Is High
AP Research
- S&P 500 fell 0.6% but Nasdaq 100 down 1.6% as market reassesses hyperscaler capex spending and AI valuations.
- Alphabet's negative quarterly free cash flow and raised 2026 capex guidance to $205B signals narrowing investor tolerance for spending without returns.
- Hedge funds net sold U.S. tech at record pace; semiconductor index on track for worst month since June 2022.
SOMETIMES THE FORWARD-DISCOUNTING MACHINES DOESN'T CARE ABOUT YOUR EPS CHART
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Stocks are forward-discounting mechanisms; rising NTM EPS does not guarantee rising stock prices if the market has already priced in those earnings gains.
- The 2020-2021 parallel shows both NTM EPS and stock prices rising together, but in January 2022 stocks rolled over 24.5% even as earnings continued rising, proving earnings aren't the full story.
- Market participants often overlook that forward-discounting can reverse sharply when expectations shift, regardless of whether actual earnings fundamentals remain strong.
Industry Alert: Medical/Nursing Services
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Medical and nursing services sector flagged as an industry alert, suggesting structural or cyclical shifts worth monitoring.
- Pinecone's full research suite (The Cascade and The Emerald) provides deeper sector and portfolio analysis beyond this brief alert.
- Standard risk disclaimers note that individual reports are not comprehensive and readers must conduct independent evaluation.
The Cash Machine
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Mark Walter's Guggenheim Baseball Management used a complex insurance-backed financing scheme to fund the Dodgers' media network, obscuring $587M in debt through Delaware Life and Clear Spring Life.
- Retirement savings from annuity products sold to Ohio and Indiana residents were placed in life insurance companies that hold the Dodgers' media network debt, raising regulatory scrutiny concerns.
- The structure exploits 'arm's length' accounting loopholes by filing the owner's own insurance company holdings as unaffiliated third-party investments.
SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Cost of Not Beginning
Cape Fear Advisors
- SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at $135/share valued the company at $1.79T, with the market pricing in significant future business expansion not yet begun.
- By late July, SpaceX stock fell to $115 despite a major acquisition (Cursor) and refinancing, suggesting the market repriced unfulfilled expansion expectations.
- The gap between SpaceX's 3x revenue multiple for non-commenced projects and actual execution milestones reveals investor concerns about future growth assumptions.
The Ancient 8.
Damped Spring 101
- Investors should evaluate three key dimensions: growth, inflation, and monetary/fiscal conditions relative to consensus expectations.
- Asset pricing reflects current market consensus; outperformance depends on expectations shifting differently than priced.
- Diversified asset portfolios historically outperform cash over long periods due to risk premiums paid to savers by spenders.
- The 'Always Own Beta' principle suggests holding assets rather than cash despite uncertainty in individual dimension outcomes.
The Week Ahead 7/26/26
Eliant
- Geopolitical tensions between U.S. and Iran drove oil prices higher and pushed 10-year yields toward 4.7% this week.
- Nasdaq underperformed with a 160bps decline after a 200bps gain early week, while Dow held up best on energy strength.
- Wednesday's FOMC decision expected to hold rates steady, though recent oil spike creates speculation of potential surprise hike.
- Economic calendar includes PCE data Thursday as Fed's preferred inflation gauge following volatile week in equity markets.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 July 2026
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Mag-7, S&P 493, and both cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 have all peaked with lower highs forming, technically defining a downtrend if key support levels break.
- Market messiness is arriving on seasonal schedule; retail trading behavior signals hint of regime change; and Fed rate hike risk echoes global trends creating headwinds for equities.
- Backdrop of expensive valuations, low cash allocations, rising geopolitical tensions, and capex/AI concerns suggests distinct change in market tone with potential further turbulence ahead.
What Google Didn't Say, and on Its Record Isn't Likely To
Cape Fear Advisors
- Alphabet reported record net income of $112.2 billion, but $99 billion came from unrealized gains on equity holdings with no cash collected.
- Operating cash flow of $39.1 billion fell short of $44.9 billion in capital expenditure, resulting in negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion.
- The significant capital expenditure plan increased to $195-205 billion signals continued heavy investment despite concerns about returns on that spending.
Sleeping on Soybeans
Nico from AiQ
- Soybean prices face bearish pressure at multiple levels ($11.30, $12, $12.50) due to weak Chinese demand and farmers selling.
- Yield forecasting practices have become outdated as USDA data no longer carries the absolute authority it once did in commodity markets.
- Upcoming global weather risks and tariff developments present significant variables for commodity markets in the coming weeks.
Big Short Charts...
Garrett Baldwin
- Wall Street incentive structures reward volume production of financial instruments regardless of underlying quality or systemic risk, echoing pre-2008 CDO dynamics.
- UBS proposes repackaging low-quality assets as premium products, a variation of the oldest Wall Street trade despite post-crisis regulatory promises.
- Market momentum has turned negative, requiring strict adherence to risk management rules as financial engineering repeats historical patterns.
Energy · 8
Everyone's stupid and we're all going to die
Irina Slav on energy
- Oil prices fell below $100 following reports of US-Iran pause in bombings, but a bombing pause does not constitute a ceasefire or peace agreement.
- China's concern over Middle East stability is worrying rather than positive given its massive strategic oil reserves.
- Refinery crack spreads are driving significant stock price increases for refiners, highlighting the importance of fuel price dynamics.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- WTI crude oil fell sharply on US decision to pause attacks on Iran while diplomatic efforts through Oman proceed.
- Key technical levels for WTI are $93.50 resistance and $79.80 support; Brent faces $102.00 resistance and $86.10 support.
- Oman is mediating discussions between US and Iran regarding maritime shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during conflict.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Black Sea geopolitical situation deteriorated worse on Friday, adding risk-off pressure to commodities broadly.
- Weekend precipitation over agricultural regions was slightly better than expected, but near-record heat and ongoing dryness will drive powerful storms whose coverage determines broader market impact.
- Spec selling pressure typically hits between 4-6 AM Chicago time before market bounces, creating a key window to monitor for commodity direction.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and commercial shipping have forced insurers to withdraw coverage and threaten major maritime trade routes.
- Chinese vessel operators considering turning back signals severe disruption to global energy and commercial flows amid geopolitical escalation.
- Oil price support persists as three major maritime corridors face conflict risks, limiting downside price potential despite market uncertainty.
Episode 6: Escape, Not Trade
The Commodity Compass
- Iran's MoU on Strait of Hormuz passage was deliberately ambiguous, providing Tehran a commercial escape hatch from sanctions while preserving control claims.
- The safe corridor lasted only 19 days before closing, revealing the MoU's fragility and incompatibility with Iran's true strategic objectives.
- The agreement exemplified 'constructive ambiguity'—Kissinger-style language allowing both parties to claim victory despite fundamentally conflicting interests.
Demand Push
PAIDDoomberg
- US shale gas production has more than doubled in 15 years despite rock-bottom prices, contradicting long-standing peak supply predictions.
- Historical pattern shows energy pessimists repeatedly move goalposts as industry exceeds production targets at 70, 80, 90, and 100+ bcf/d.
- Further production growth appears feasible if prices improve slightly from near-zero levels, given demonstrated industry resilience.
The Net Zero Machine Laid Bare
David Turver from Eigen Values
- The UK has constructed a permanent system of carbon, environmental, and spatial governance operating through multiple interconnected institutions rather than single central authority.
- The Climate Change Act, Carbon Budget Delivery Plan, Environment Act, and Farming Roadmap form a sequential machine that distributes emissions reduction burdens across sectors.
- Strategic Spatial Energy Plan and Centralised Strategic Network Plan establish the energy geography and infrastructure necessary to enforce net-zero obligations across the economy.
The WTK Report: Episode 35 - Energy Prices, Bond Yields, CPI, & The Fed Is Not Going To Raise Rates
TKTheContrarian
- Bond yields peaked in mid-May 2026 and have since declined before a recent rally, with oil and long-end yields moving in tandem.
- WTI crude oil averaged $100 between 2008-2014, equivalent to $160 in today's inflation-adjusted dollars.
- The Fed is unlikely to raise rates despite recent economic data and energy price movements.