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Updated Saturday, September 19 2026 · 06:20 AM CDT · 85 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 13

What Mark Zuckerberg Wants. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Mark Zuckerberg controls platforms used by 2.3 billion people—more than the total human population in 1965.
  • Jeremy Stern's profile draws on interviews with Zuckerberg's family, friends, and the CEO himself to explore what drives one of the world's most powerful figures.
  • The piece investigates the nature of power itself through the lens of a single individual who shapes the information environment for over half of humanity.
Sep 19, 04:31 AMRead on Substack →

MACRO AND THE PRO LABOUR TRADE

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Older investors exhibit fear of new developments rooted in repeated market crises (GFC, Eurocrisis, EM problems), making bearishness a survival skill in volatile markets.
  • Macro indicators like deteriorating Net International Investment Position and elevated net worth-to-GDP ratios appear scary but require more sophisticated analysis beyond headline numbers.
  • Traditional bearish macro narratives from 2016 have failed to materialize, suggesting conventional wisdom about market tops may misinterpret structural changes and new regimes.
Sep 18, 10:18 AMRead on Substack →

The Radical Right’s Plan to Transform Conservatism. Plus . . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • A network of wealthy donors and intellectuals centered on Charles Haywood is pushing radical conservative ideology rooted in racial grievance and rejection of liberal democracy.
  • The 'no enemies to the right' principle has allowed once-fringe ideas to penetrate mainstream conservative institutions and establish influence across think tanks and churches.
  • Vice President J.D. Vance and other establishment conservatives are implicated in failing to police ideological boundaries, effectively endorsing the radicalization of the American right.
Sep 18, 10:01 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • BABA shares rallied +4.4%, driving October $120 call options up 2x, enabling the trader to sell half and recoup full trade cost.
  • Position management leveraged the Trump-Xi meeting as a catalytic event with upside optionality while locking in profits on half the position.
  • The trade demonstrates tactical use of near-term geopolitical catalysts and technical reversal patterns in high-beta Chinese tech stocks.
Sep 18, 09:46 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Bank of Japan hiked rates 25bps as expected but faced dissents, raising concerns about actual tightening follow-through.
  • The author is bearish on EUR/USD due to broader structural issues beyond natural gas stockouts, with Saudi pressuring European energy dynamics.
  • Fed's tightening trajectory appears dollar-bullish for now despite recent rate hikes, shifting market macro dynamics.
Sep 18, 09:18 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • EQR AU position doubled after addition to main index, demonstrating capital cycle thesis connecting disparate assets.
  • Tungsten stock re-rated from 2x to 4x EBITDA as execution was proven, decoupling from commodity price moves.
  • Author exited entire position opportunistically during index inclusion-driven volume surge.
  • Trade exemplifies connecting 'Memory vs Tungsten' framework with index effects driving valuation expansion.
Sep 18, 07:52 AMRead on Substack →

Market Update & Signals 9/18/26

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • SPY in range with potential bounce target at $765-768 supply zone after constructive Thursday action.
  • VIX plunged to 15, approaching author's downside target; tape improvement supports potential Q4 rally setup.
  • SMH pushing key resistance with strength in AI/Hardware/Memory names, though discipline maintained on hedging decisions.
  • Strategy emphasizes waiting for best setups rather than forced trades, letting market indicate direction.
Sep 18, 05:30 AMRead on Substack →

TGIF: Experts Fear Worse Ahead

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • News roundup highlights pop culture podcast covering Sydney Sweeney controversy and experimental $60 loaf of bread.
  • Abigail Shrier's 'Tough Love' advice column addresses reader inquiries on relationship and life matters.
  • Mitch McConnell referenced with controversial commentary on caretaker concerns and family dynamics.
  • Mix of entertainment news, expert analysis, and political observation presented with editorial humor.
Sep 18, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

(Important) What Is The Endgame For The Oil Market?

PRIORITY
HFI Research
  • JPMorgan's oil market analysis assumes normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by a specified date, but fails to incorporate who actually wins the regional conflict.
  • Sell-side firms like Goldman Sachs have repeatedly revised Hormuz normalization timelines (April, May, June, July) without acknowledging underlying geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Oil market fundamentals have shifted fundamentally—assuming mystical forces will guide regional stability or conflict will subside is wishful thinking.
  • Traditional models predicting production recovery ignore new conflict dynamics and require explicit war-outcome scenarios.
Sep 17, 09:38 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Prior BABA call trade (June, Sept $120 calls bought at $2) generated 40% stock rally with profitable exits at 3x and 5x returns.
  • Current opportunity in Oct $120 calls trading at $1.70 with stock at $108, one week before Trump-Xi summit.
  • Positioning for potential Xi Jinping political positioning changes and trade policy shifts.
Sep 17, 02:21 PMRead on Substack →

Niall Ferguson: Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Russian drone strike near Polish border aimed to intimidate Western delegation including Boris Johnson and David Petraeus.
  • Ukraine faces grim economic and political situation despite faint diplomatic progress signs from Yalta European Strategy meeting.
  • Putin employs strategy of drone incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks against multiple NATO members with apparent impunity.
Sep 17, 01:44 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Federal Reserve's shortened FOMC presser signaled hawkish pivot with messaging about 'removing accommodation' rather than 'modestly restrictive' policy.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered clearer, more direct communication (30-minute presser, shortest in history) signaling more rate hikes ahead.
  • Dollar positioning shifted bullish from Fed messaging for first time in extended period, though cross-currency flows create offsetting pressures.
Sep 17, 09:06 AMRead on Substack →

The Hike We Need

PRIORITY
Lord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
  • The recent Fed hike was a credibility-restoration move rather than the start of an aggressive hiking cycle, with long rates doing the heavy lifting.
  • Market pricing may be overestimating future rate hikes, leaving room for equity rallies as expectations reset lower.
  • Focus is expected to shift back to earnings as the initial monetary policy shock settles.
Sep 17, 07:46 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 15

You Only Have One Penis

Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
  • A 14-year-old's warning—"you only have one penis"—encodes wisdom about resource allocation and the limits of personal capacity.
  • The author uses this anecdote to critique overwork culture and advise high-effort entrepreneurs to delegate rather than attempting to produce all revenue personally.
  • Recognizing finite resources allows grinders and strivers to shift from execution to management and scale their impact.
Sep 18, 08:10 PMRead on Substack →

Stylish glassware, a gift-worthy potluck tote, and my office chair upgrade

Amanda Hesser from Homeward
  • Amanda Hesser explores alternatives to homeownership, including friends selling their house to buy and live on a boat for extended travel.
  • The piece discusses curated home goods and furniture upgrades, including mouth-blown goblets and vintage office chair selections.
  • Reader feedback challenges the premise of home ownership itself, offering perspective on whether real estate investment compares favorably to experiential alternatives.
Sep 18, 05:02 PMRead on Substack →

Healthy Homemade Snickers Bars

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Detailed recipe for homemade Snickers bars using protein powder, monkfruit sweetener, and natural peanuts as a healthier alternative to commercial candy.
  • Instructions cover three components: cookie base, caramel filling, and chocolate coating with precise measurements and temperature guidance.
  • The recipe accommodates dietary preferences with gluten-free flour options and specific sweetener recommendations (allulose over erythritol for better taste).
Sep 18, 04:33 PMRead on Substack →

White Liberal Parents

The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
  • Argues that white liberal parents have promoted ideology eroding traditional Western values, free speech, and community institutions.
  • Claims this ideological shift has contributed to social fragmentation, turning societies into 'islands of strangers' without collective identity.
  • Positions cultural critique around defense of Western civilizational foundations against perceived ideological erosion.
Sep 18, 12:08 PMRead on Substack →

John Galliano, the Met, and the Case for Beauty Beyond the Artist

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • John Galliano's 2010-2011 racist remarks warranted immediate consequences, but permanent exclusion contradicts principles of accountability paired with redemption.
  • After 15 years of rehabilitation, public apology, and behavioral change, Galliano's past should not entirely define his artistic legacy or professional future.
  • The Met's cancellation of his exhibition raises difficult questions about whether society should allow space for genuine contrition and restoration alongside accountability.
Sep 18, 12:00 PMRead on Substack →

The Demonisation Of Ed Sheeran

John Aziz
  • Ed Sheeran faced massive backlash and abandonment by tour support acts after dropping Macklemore from his North American tour.
  • Social media has depicted Sheeran with antisemitic caricatures and violent imagery including demonic and weaponized representations.
  • The author argues the level of vitriol and demonization directed at Sheeran is abnormal and disproportionate to the reported incident.
Sep 18, 09:27 AMRead on Substack →

They Took the Chemical Out of Your Dress Shirt. Then They Went After the Suit.

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Non-iron dress shirts contain formaldehyde-releasing resin cure, a known human carcinogen not disclosed on labels.
  • U.S. clothing labels are not required to disclose formaldehyde treatment despite GAO findings, creating hidden health exposure.
  • Israeli startup developed formaldehyde-free alternative matching $250 European shirt quality at quarter the price.
  • Regulatory gap allows chemical treatments to hide under generic labels like 'easy care' and 'wrinkle-free'.
Sep 18, 07:11 AMRead on Substack →

Secrets of great conversation, Oscar Wilde’s annoying brother, new prized possession

James Marriott from Cultural Capital
  • Author shares personal travel plans to Nepal inspired by an intense dream and discusses upcoming holiday after minimal time off this year.
  • Reflects on creative AI's specific psychological impact on human self-esteem and ego, comparing modern disruption to the Copernican Revolution.
  • Essay draws parallel between AI-driven existential questions and historical scientific paradigm shifts that reshaped human identity.
  • Combines personal narrative with cultural commentary on technology's role in 21st-century meaning-making.
Sep 18, 12:30 AMRead on Substack →

A Trip to the ER -- and a Public Service Message

Chris Arnade Walks the World
  • Author describes an undiagnosed chest pain that escalated into an emergency room visit, offering firsthand account of healthcare experience.
  • Uses personal anecdote about avoiding medical knowledge to illustrate how people rationalize symptoms and delay seeking care.
  • Framed as a public service message about recognizing serious health warning signs beyond assumed minor causes.
Sep 17, 06:16 PMRead on Substack →

8 LIES You've BELIEVED Your Whole Life

Nobody Talks About This
  • International study finds average erect length is approximately 13.1 cm, debunking common myths about male anatomy.
  • Many women require clitoral rather than penetrative stimulation for orgasm; sexual desire and capability vary by individual stress, hormones, and relationships.
  • Sexual skill and satisfaction are not determined by anatomical size but by communication, knowledge, and emotional connection.
Sep 17, 03:09 PMRead on Substack →

My Favorite Philip K. Dick Novels

Ted Gioia
  • Philip K. Dick novels have shifted from escapist entertainment to allegorical warnings about contemporary reality and simulated worlds.
  • Dick's exploration of illusion, hallucination, and constructed realities functions as social commentary on modern existence.
  • Selection of seven Philip K. Dick novels recommended as must-read works for understanding current times.
Sep 17, 02:10 PMRead on Substack →

The ice cream shopper

Mark Phillips from The Till
  • Author reflects on formative first job experience scooping ice cream and lessons learned about quality and customer service.
  • Small business operated wholesale premium ice cream ($8/pint) with direct Madagascar vanilla and extra fatty milk in pre-organic mainstream era.
  • Personal anecdote serves as foundation for broader discussion of market structure and liquidity principles.
Sep 17, 11:15 AMRead on Substack →

Now the music industry is against cancel culture?

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Ed Sheeran removed Macklemore from his Loop Tour after the artist made pro-Palestine statements at MetLife Stadium.
  • Multiple support acts including Lukas Graham, Aaron Rowe, and Finneas pulled out in solidarity with Macklemore over the cancellation.
  • The post critiques what it frames as selective application of anti-cancel-culture principles by the music industry.
Sep 17, 11:14 AMRead on Substack →

Tahini-Maple Cookies

Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
  • Author received a care package of corn-based miso (maizo) varieties from Yoli Tortilleria with white, yellow, and red corn koji.
  • Developed a Tahini-Maple Cookie recipe using buckwheat and millet flours, olive oil, and white maizo for an earthy fall cookie.
  • The maizo imparts qualities similar to a blend of white miso and fresh masa with hominy-like depth.
Sep 17, 11:03 AMRead on Substack →

Keep promises on your bad days

Sara
  • High expectations built on best-case scenarios often lead to broken commitments and eroded self-trust when life disrupts plans.
  • Perfectionists frequently respond to falling short by abandoning systems entirely rather than adjusting expectations, creating negative self-narratives.
  • The key is maintaining foundational promises on bad days rather than pursuing perfect execution on good ones.
Sep 17, 07:31 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 15

How the Muslim Brotherhood Captured South Africa

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • The Muslim Brotherhood's influence extends globally beyond the Middle East, with strategic footholds established as far as South Africa through patient, disciplined infiltration.
  • After Egypt banned the Brotherhood in 1954, key leaders like Yusuf al-Qaradawi fled to Qatar, where they built an ideological network institutionalized in the International Union of Muslim Scholars.
  • The Brotherhood operates as a long-term global project leveraging diaspora networks, state patronage, and institutional structures to extend geopolitical influence.
Sep 18, 03:59 PMRead on Substack →

Imperialism Abroad

Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
  • Examines historical Democratic warnings about imperialism abroad leading to despotism at home, drawing parallels to current events.
  • Discusses AI's impact on education and critical thinking, citing concerns about student reliance on AI-generated content.
  • Touches on political dissatisfaction across the political spectrum and issues with cognitive dissonance in evaluating state actions.
Sep 18, 03:12 PMRead on Substack →

Friday Five (September 18, 2026)

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Weekly curated selection of five notable journalism pieces on politics, culture, and current events from the past week.
  • Features Karl Rove's endorsement of a Texas Democrat candidate and analysis of divisive political rhetoric.
  • Highlights ongoing political polarization and the role of identity politics in campaign messaging.
Sep 18, 12:30 PMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets slightly higher on light news with commentary on 'No. 8 wire' problem-solving mentality.
  • Speculative scenario: 2032 AOC presidency requisitions Elon Musk's robots to 'flatten the AI curve'.
  • Broader cultural commentary on generational mental health crisis reflected in student behavioral changes.
  • Author interviews gym owner with dramatic off-record incidents revealing societal tensions.
Sep 18, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

Why Don’t More Independents Run in Big Cities?

Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
  • Republicans control trifectas in 23 states while Democrats control 16, creating one-party dominance in many regions.
  • Independent candidates emerge in deep-red states due to Democrat weakness, but parallel phenomenon absent in deep-blue cities.
  • Electoral weakness of opposition parties in one-party states eliminates viable landing spots for dissatisfied voters.
  • Structural imbalance in party competition creates asymmetric incentives for independent candidacies across red vs. blue jurisdictions.
Sep 18, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

The Takaichi Imperative

Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
  • Prime Minister Takaichi rules Japan with iron-fist determination and urgency more aligned with Meiji Restoration ambition than post-war consensus politics.
  • Cabinet selection process requires all LDP parliamentarians to submit letters detailing desired positions and specific accomplishments—complete break from old-boy faction negotiations.
  • Merit, ambition, and accountability now determine appointments instead of seniority and factional balance.
  • Style and process changes signal Takaichi's intent to fundamentally restructure how power is exercised in Japanese politics.
Sep 17, 09:44 PMRead on Substack →

Charlie Kirk Didn't Even Believe In Race (Now on Video)

Kaizen Asiedu
  • Creator is shifting focus from short-form to long-form video to build durable content libraries beyond ephemeral platform cycles.
  • New video essay examines five major historical distortions about Charlie Kirk's statements on race with archival clips and data.
  • Substack remains the primary archive for complete analysis; YouTube videos serve as enhanced visual adaptations of written essays.
Sep 17, 07:16 PMRead on Substack →

Palestinian Psychiatrist From Gaza Calls For An End To The Culture Of “Dehumanisation”

John Aziz
  • Palestinian psychiatrist discusses how Hamas normalized violence through hatred education in schools, mosques, and media.
  • Dehumanization of Jewish people as villains justified October 7 attacks; post-war sentiment shows growing recognition of this damage across Palestinian society.
  • Culture of dehumanization is not unique to Palestine but reflects a broader pattern of how societies can be conditioned toward violence.
Sep 17, 04:12 PMRead on Substack →

Inside The Woke Rot At Cambridge University - Former Student Uncovers

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Interview with Cambridge University Women Society founder examines woke ideology and free speech erosion at UK's premier institution.
  • Discussion covers DEI initiatives, merit-based admissions decline, and ideological polarization among Gen Z at the university.
  • Explores how progressive institutional capture affects student experience and intellectual freedom at elite educational institutions.
Sep 17, 02:08 PMRead on Substack →

AfD Are Not Neo-Nazis, But...

Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
  • AfD achieved 44% vote share in Saxony-Anhalt with 78% turnout, marking far-right breakthrough in Germany despite strict anti-Nazi laws.
  • Holocaust survivor Charlotte Knobloch received death threats following election results.
  • Discussion of whether AfD qualifies as neo-Nazi organization with implications for European political dynamics.
Sep 17, 12:10 PMRead on Substack →

A Conversation with Austin Ruse: Defending Human Dignity at the UN

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Austin Ruse and C-Fam defend national sovereignty and Judeo-Christian human dignity against UN global governance initiatives.
  • Progressive actors use UN arena to advance secularist human rights vision beyond reach of national electorates.
  • C-Fam challenges false understanding of international law regarding rights like abortion that lack legitimate UN basis.
Sep 17, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

What This Country Needs Is More Conservative Democrats!

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Democratic Party composition shifted dramatically from 28% liberal in 2000 to 59% liberal by 2024, with conservative Democrats dropping from 24% to 8%.
  • Liberals now outnumber moderate/conservative Democrats by a 7-to-1 ratio, fundamentally changing party power dynamics.
  • The authors argue the party needs more conservative Democrats to broaden appeal and reclaim lost moderate voters.
Sep 17, 09:47 AMRead on Substack →

Why the BBC stopped listening to ordinary people

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • BBC Radio Lancashire journalist Sean McGinty lost his job after 22 years for challenging the broadcaster's coverage of Hamas, Israel, and October 7.
  • McGinty's dismissal raises questions about editorial independence and whether the BBC listens to staff concerns about institutional bias.
  • The case illustrates tensions between organizational narratives and individual journalist perspectives on Middle East coverage.
Sep 17, 08:54 AMRead on Substack →

Can agents buy from your product? Three questions that tell you. Plus: Nate's Library MCP.

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • The Iran conflict is accelerating breakdown of the international order as Middle Eastern governments question US security guarantees.
  • Gulf rulers must recalculate defense assumptions and commitments made under previous US protection frameworks.
  • Britain is reinforcing strategic vulnerability by maintaining complex intelligence relationships while straining ties with key allies.
Sep 17, 08:02 AMRead on Substack →

Keep Pretending Nothing is Wrong

Mark Hasman
  • Trump's trade war with Canada risks damaging relationships with longtime allies while praising authoritarian regimes like North Korea.
  • Hypocrisy in body positivity standards: Sydney Sweeney faced backlash for a sports gambling ad while ESPN's nude athlete issues faced no similar criticism.
  • Double standards reveal selective outrage based on context rather than consistent ethical principles.
Sep 17, 07:50 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 10

Friday POW!

The Haymaker Team
  • Stock trading at $164 with P/E of 24x and down 23% from 52-week high; H1 2026 revenue beat analyst expectations.
  • Oncology division driving growth at 48% of product revenue with +16% YoY increase and strong pipeline momentum.
  • AI should serve as a powerful drug-discovery accelerant for pharma, though this potential remains underappreciated by markets.
Sep 18, 12:36 PMRead on Substack →

The shiniest object

Damped Spring 101
  • Hedge fund holdings of US government debt have grown 4x to $1.5 trillion, but represent only 7% of total government debt and a minor leverage source for asset markets.
  • Media and political narratives about an imminent debt crisis driven by hedge fund positioning focus on a single tree and miss the broader forest of bond market fundamentals.
  • The US bond market has diverse investor demand, pricing flexibility, and no near-term doom horizon despite doomsayers predicting default and monetary printing.
Sep 18, 10:52 AMRead on Substack →

It's the Economy, Stupid

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • US Treasury yields testing 5% reflect strong nominal GDP growth and loose monetary policy relative to economic fundamentals, not debt crisis fears.
  • Current bond market dynamics follow a normal cycle pattern similar to historical precedent, signaling proximity to a major fixed income buying opportunity.
  • Rising yields have little connection to deficits or loss of confidence in Treasuries, instead indicating rational repricing to economic reality rather than structural instability.
Sep 18, 10:07 AMRead on Substack →

SANDWICH MEETING

Tony Greer
  • Fed's 25bp rate hike held markets steady with S&P and BCOM flat, bonds stabilizing, and long-end showing recovery after recent weakness.
  • Inflation remains persistent through energy prices; near-term relief from declining rate-rise pace has restored risk-on appetite in equities and technicals.
  • Tech and cybersecurity lead market strength while financials face headwinds; resource trades are consolidating but positioned for gains as dollar strength reverses.
Sep 18, 09:28 AMRead on Substack →

Is Weather Driving Soybeans?

Nico from AiQ
  • Soybeans rallied 11% and soymeal 18% since mid-August, partly driven by dry weather forecasts in Brazil.
  • Most traders lack proactive weather analysis capabilities and rely on third-party interpretation rather than independent assessment.
  • AiQ platform integrating balance sheets, weather databases, government feeds enabling lean teams to execute complex agricultural research.
  • Key insight: understanding regional weather anomalies 2-4 weeks ahead provides pricing edge that broader market misses.
Sep 18, 06:31 AMRead on Substack →

Private for Longer

Andrew Sarna
  • 2020+ venture vintages clustered at 1x-1.7x TVPI versus 3-4x for 2017-2018 vintages, signaling distribution crisis.
  • IPO market collapse since 2000 forces companies to rely on strategic sales and PE buyouts as primary exits.
  • Companies now staying private 33% longer (10.8 vs 8.1 years) due to higher listing costs and deeper private capital pools.
  • Value creation increasingly concentrated in top-decile funds, making manager selection critical amid prolonged deployment timelines.
Sep 18, 05:52 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • S&P 500 up 15bp with light news; 10-year yield at 4.96% and USD +9bp.
  • European markets lower on auto and consumer weakness; Asian markets mixed with Japan down 26bp but China up 93bp.
  • Pentagon may withdraw a third of troops from Europe; US-China summit hopes dimming.
  • BOJ hiking rates; Anthropic hackers breached OpenAI; Nvidia maintaining bullish guidance.
Sep 18, 05:04 AMRead on Substack →

How Long Back to Even?

Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
  • American mega-cap stocks now comprise over 40% of S&P 500, creating concentrated crowded trade that could unwind significantly.
  • Historical precedent shows recovery to previous highs took 15 years (Nasdaq 2000), 25 years (1929 Dow), and 34 years (Japan).
  • Oil prices relative to S&P 500 at historic lows, presenting opportunity outside consensus crowded trades.
Sep 17, 01:26 PMRead on Substack →

ETFs in 2026: there’s more innovation, but also higher expenses, more complexity, and more risk

Bob Pisani
  • U.S. ETF industry holds $15.8 trillion across 5,401 funds with majority still flowing into S&P 500 index products.
  • New wave of active ETFs gaining traction but remain only 12.5% of market, offering innovation but with higher complexity and risk.
  • Index-based ETFs dominate with top three trackers (SPY, IVV, VOO) all tracking S&P 500.
Sep 17, 12:33 PMRead on Substack →

Theme in Focus: Global Equities

Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
  • Global ex-US equities show a bullish outlook based on Topdown Charts' macro theme analysis framework.
  • The US Federal Reserve hiked rates +25bps to 4%, with indicators suggesting another ~100bps in additional hikes required.
  • The assessment includes overall outlook, risk factors, catalysts, key charts, and ratings on core macro factors.
Sep 17, 09:21 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 9

Oil Context Weekly (W38)

Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
  • Weekly oil market analysis covering crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data.
  • Tracks Middle East shipping flows and provides detailed market positioning insights for paid subscribers.
  • Includes commentary from multiple media appearances and contributions to major publications.
Sep 18, 03:31 PMRead on Substack →

The Groningen Alibi

Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
  • Netherlands permanently sealed Europe's largest remaining natural gas reserves in Groningen despite escalating geopolitical energy crisis.
  • Green politicians and energy officials avoided scrutiny by using phrases like 'soft voice of the Groningers' to mask controversial political decisions.
  • Sealing gas reserves at the exact moment energy scarcity became catastrophic represents a critical policy failure driven by ideological commitment over practical energy security.
Sep 18, 11:17 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Seaborne coal markets closed the week under pressure with Australian PLV falling $2.20/t and HCC down $3.30/t.
  • SGX futures showed sharper declines with October contracts down $9 and November down $9.50, signaling weakness in China demand.
  • A bid for 75,000t Saraji PHCC cargo at $280/t fob Australia found no takers, with traders calling the level unworkable given market weakness.
Sep 18, 09:25 AMRead on Substack →

Another Piece Comes Off the Energy Chessboard – and Benefits More than Iran

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest level since 1982 (285M barrels, 40% of capacity) as emergency exchange winds down.
  • SPR releases slowed dramatically, with September releases near zero, removing crucial shock absorber for Iran conflict.
  • Saudi East-West pipeline damaged in attacks; Houthis disrupt Red Sea shipping, forcing costly reroutes.
  • Critical question: with SPR buffers depleting, who benefits most from constrained global oil supply and rising energy costs?
Sep 18, 06:06 AMRead on Substack →

Coming to America

PAID
Doomberg
  • Houthis rapidly advancing on Red Sea coast with serious damage to East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia signaling imminent global diesel crunch.
  • Months of Strait of Hormuz disruptions plus strategic reserve depletion and demand deferrals have postponed economic reckoning but cannot sustain indefinitely.
  • Saudi Arabia's vulnerability grows as US military backing and potency both questioned amid geopolitical instability.
  • Global economy faces approaching economic calamity as tactical delays exhaust and conditions worsen materially.
Sep 18, 04:02 AMRead on Substack →

The New Cold War

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • A PNAS breakthrough in magnetocaloric solid-state cooling offers fluidless thermal management that reduces parasitic energy costs in computing.
  • Declining EROEI demands negentropic interventions at the computational edge to maintain economic resilience.
  • Micro-level physics advances in thermodynamic efficiency represent geopolitical leverage in the context of physical infrastructure competition.
Sep 17, 07:29 PMRead on Substack →

Oil to $240!

Benny and The Squirrel
  • Oil analyst Rob Connors argues crude oil could reach $240 based on marginal production costs and well productivity slowdowns.
  • Rising development costs, China currency signals, and refining bottlenecks are creating structural pressure on oil supply.
  • Big tech's trillion-dollar capex spending mirrors the 2013 oil sector boom; energy equities are in innings 4-5 of cycle with parabolic gains ahead.
Sep 17, 05:01 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Seaborne coal market drifted lower with thin buying interest; PLV fob Australia fell 30¢/t to $280/t.
  • Tier-two hard coking coal decreased 40¢/t to $242/t while Mongolian logistics improved slightly, easing supply pressure.
  • SGX futures showed mixed movement with September contracts unchanged at $275 and modest volatility across front-month contracts.
Sep 17, 08:56 AMRead on Substack →

Headlines: September 2026

Irina Slav on energy
  • The global fashion industry's greenhouse gas emissions increased 14% over two years and now match Japan's entire climate footprint at 1 gigaton.
  • Polyester production and expanded global fiber manufacturing are primary drivers of the fashion sector's growing emissions.
  • Climate-focused organizations are emerging to identify and fund solutions for reducing apparel and footwear industry carbon emissions.
Sep 17, 07:01 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 8

the fiscal war.

Hugh Hendry
  • The U.S. fiscal deficit doesn't get resolved but rerouted through legislation like the GENIUS, CLARITY, and anti-CBDC acts.
  • America is systematically building digital infrastructure to move financial transactions from the physical world into digital systems, bypassing traditional global financial centers.
  • By the time mainstream financial press notices this structural shift, prices will have already moved and the shift will be recast as obvious in retrospect.
Sep 19, 02:16 AMRead on Substack →

Gold caused the Great Depression

Gold and geopolitics
  • The gold standard is often scapegoated as the cause of the Great Depression, but Liaquat Ahamed's *Lords of Finance* actually indicts specific bankers' policy choices, not gold itself.
  • Countries that abandoned the gold standard early (Britain in 1931) recovered faster, suggesting the constraint itself was problematic under the circumstances.
  • The real story is more nuanced than a simple "gold caused the Depression" narrative; it involves the interactions of policy, institutions, and human decisions.
Sep 18, 05:16 PMRead on Substack →

BoJ Ueda: Virtually no chance of an October hike

Japan Macro Advisors
  • BoJ Governor Ueda signaled virtually zero chance of October rate hike, dampening market speculation.
  • 0.5% hike or consecutive rate increases reserved only for emergency inflation scenarios well above target.
  • Ueda forcefully messaging that central bank responsibility is preventing crisis, not speculating on drastic measures.
  • Market expectations for near-term hikes appear disconnected from BoJ communication and policy path.
Sep 18, 05:17 AMRead on Substack →

A hard money Fed will collide with the mother of all AI credit bubble in 2027

Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
  • Author predicts September 2026 rate hike will trigger major market dislocation comparable to 2008, 2001, and 1992 financial crises.
  • Hard money Federal Reserve policy will collide with massive AI-driven credit bubble, creating systemic financial risk.
  • Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary faces $40 trillion debt burden amid unwinnable geopolitical conflicts constraining financing options.
  • Global monetary system faces breakdown as strangers withdraw bankrolling of unsustainable US fiscal positions.
Sep 18, 03:23 AMRead on Substack →

Managed Independence is Everywhere

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • Bank of Japan raised policy rate to 1.25% after Scott Bessent signaled US currency defense in exchange for tightening.
  • Two dissenting BOJ votes from Takaichi appointees signal administration wants looser policy, causing yen to weaken toward ¥157 despite rate hike.
  • Market interpreted dissents as proof BOJ cannot deliver October hike, with yen potentially revisiting 160.
  • Bessent's influence over global monetary policy faces credibility test as Japan's policy intentions diverge from tightening rhetoric.
Sep 18, 02:11 AMRead on Substack →

From One Policy Error To The Next

Capital Flows
  • Risk cannot be destroyed, only transferred between nominal and real purchasing power constraints across global markets.
  • Policymakers and market participants misinterpret macro mechanics, creating policy errors that drive capital flows.
  • Both nominal and real constraints operate simultaneously, creating mechanical drivers for how capital moves through the system.
Sep 17, 02:16 PMRead on Substack →

The Fed Just Hiked Rates. The Bond Market Disagreed.

Rebel Capitalist News Desk
  • Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4% but bond market rejected hawkish signal with 10-year yields falling instead.
  • Inflation driven by supply shock (oil near $105, diesel above $6/gallon) rather than demand boom; quarter-point hike ineffective.
  • Economic fundamentals weak with lower payroll revisions, 1.5% real growth, and shrinking workforce suggesting potential deflationary bust.
Sep 17, 11:25 AMRead on Substack →

The Hike Isn’t the Aggressive Part

Global Macro Method
  • Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% with market pricing suggesting three more hikes and minimal easing through 2027, requiring sustained inflation and demand resilience.
  • Higher oil prices create tension: they support hawkish policy initially but elevated energy and borrowing costs can weaken demand needed to sustain the rate path.
  • Author questions whether the full sequence of hikes and persistently high rates can be delivered, despite believing the next individual hike is justified.
Sep 17, 06:23 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 8

The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part IV: The Big 5 Hyperscalers & the Missing $3 Trillion

Michael Burry
  • Wall Street analyst price targets often peak near market tops because analysts get overexcited and set unrealistic targets during bull markets.
  • The Big 5 hyperscalers are entering a new paradigm that requires deeper analysis than Wall Street's sell-side models currently provide.
  • There is approximately $3 trillion in missing value or miscalculation in how hyperscaler fundamentals are being assessed relative to AI's infrastructure demands.
Sep 18, 11:22 PMRead on Substack →

The real reason Trump is standing behind AI — and the latest example of why that might turn out to be a bad idea

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Trump is downplaying AI fears and resisting regulation for economic reasons, prioritizing industry growth over safety concerns.
  • Author previously warned the US Senate that AI-generated inaccurate information could trigger an accidental war, citing recent examples.
  • Highlights pattern of AI risks being underestimated while economic benefits drive policy decisions.
Sep 18, 02:52 PMRead on Substack →

Oppenheimer, Inc.

Scott Galloway
  • A 27-year-old AI researcher's resignation from a frontier lab sparked global panic, drawing commentary from former presidents and lab leaders.
  • Parallels the situation to Oppenheimer's development of nuclear weapons, questioning governance of transformative technologies.
  • Argues that small players capture economic upside while public bears the downside risks of powerful AI systems.
Sep 18, 12:24 PMRead on Substack →

Wake up, people. What we should actually fear, near term, is not so much rogue superintelligence as unleashed agen…

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • The immediate threat from AI is not superintelligence but loose autonomous agents operating without adequate safeguards in the near term.
  • Recent incidents demonstrate that regulatory and safety frameworks are failing to keep pace with rapid AI deployment.
  • Federal oversight gaps leave vulnerable points where AI systems can cause significant economic and social disruption before containment.
Sep 18, 11:29 AMRead on Substack →

QNT: The 100× Question

Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
  • Quantum computing could provide exponential value to AI models by handling molecular calculations that classical GPU/ASIC methods cannot solve economically.
  • The author spent 2-3 months researching quantum computing and Quantinuum (QNT) after previously dismissing the technology, finding it has genuinely incredible applications.
  • Quantum processors could help pharmaceutical, energy, and chemical companies make better design decisions by providing superior calculation capabilities for complex problems.
Sep 18, 09:21 AMRead on Substack →

Nuance Labs Is Betting That Text Broke AI Conversation 🗣️

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Nuance Labs raised $50M Series A from Lightspeed, NVIDIA, and others despite having no product in market yet.
  • Company founded by three ex-Apple researchers argues that text-based AI breaks conversational agents because it strips away hesitation, gaze, rhythm, and facial cues.
  • Pitch deck contains no traction figures, benchmarks, market size, or customer logos—central thesis is that eliminating text improves agent naturalness.
  • Visual agents currently combine speech-to-text, language models, text-to-speech, and animation sequentially, creating a disjointed experience.
Sep 18, 04:29 AMRead on Substack →

Liability, regulation, and AI’s new false dichotomy

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • AI companies must be held liable for damage they cause, but technolibertarians wrongly use liability as argument against regulation.
  • Liability without appropriate regulation is pointless; both frameworks are necessary to govern AI's societal risks.
  • Mark Cuban highlights the key challenge: determining which authority can correctly write and enforce AI-specific laws in this new landscape.
Sep 17, 04:50 PMRead on Substack →

How to improve your skills with evals

Khe Hy
  • LLM evaluations work well for verifiable tasks but struggle with subjective domains like sentiment analysis that require nuanced judgment.
  • Traditional binary yes/no testing fails for knowledge work requiring human interpretation and consistency across evaluators.
  • Building unbiased and repeatable evaluation frameworks for subjective outputs remains a key challenge in LLM workflows.
Sep 17, 08:02 AMRead on Substack →

Other · 4

Landmine Cossack squats & single-leg RDLs: strength and power when life goes sideways

Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
  • Landmine Cossack squats and single-leg RDLs are effective lateral strength exercises that build unconventional power and hip mobility.
  • The post includes technique demonstrations, warm-up routines, regressions and progressions for both exercises.
  • These movements require minimal special equipment and can be adapted with corner wedges or sandbags if a proper landmine anchor is unavailable.
Sep 18, 09:05 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Rate hike did not trigger market catastrophe as feared; bearish sentiment remains but apocalypse is averted for now.
  • Black Sea commodity supply situation remains unimproved despite broader market stabilization.
  • AiQ subscriber chat discusses commodity market dynamics and upcoming analysis on 'drinking the commodity ocean' concept.
  • Author maintains wait-and-see posture pending detailed morning note on geopolitical and commodity implications.
Sep 17, 08:06 PMRead on Substack →

This Israeli Medicine Could Help Premature Babies Eat Sooner

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • An Israeli medicine is being tested in UK hospitals to help premature babies fed through nasogastric tubes transition to normal feeding.
  • Preemies cannot digest normal milk intake due to immature gut development and must receive nutrition intravenously via central line.
  • A mother of twin boys born 13 weeks early participated in the Israeli clinical trial after detailed informed consent discussions with the research team.
Sep 17, 09:50 AMRead on Substack →

The Iran War is breaking the world order

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
Sep 17, 09:14 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 2

Bonus (Non-Paywalled) Post for the Week of 9/20

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • After four consecutive weeks of lower lows in SPX, the author provides both bullish and bearish scenarios to help traders prepare for multiple outcomes.
  • As a short-side specialist, the author identifies bear traps that long-biased traders miss, helping his community navigate risk management.
  • The week following FOMC decisions requires careful preparation to determine whether to press longs, hedge, or raise cash based on technical and sentiment signals.
Sep 18, 10:32 PMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/18

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Daily market analysis for SPY, QQQ, and GLD with pattern recognition spanning YM to ES correlations.
  • Discusses a multi-week pattern the author has been tracking in Discord plans with uncertain continuation prospects.
  • Recommends reviewing weekly market analysis prior to daily trades; Discord membership includes tier-based plans not available via Substack alone.
Sep 17, 05:13 PMRead on Substack →

Tech · 1

BOTTLENECK BOYZ

The Oracle by Polymarket
  • Doug O'Laughlin of SemiAnalysis discusses semiconductor bottlenecks in AI infrastructure as a key driver of compute constraints.
  • The interview distinguishes genuine semiconductor experts from recent bandwagon analysts who lack deep technical knowledge of the industry.
  • Leading AI labs may be holding back their best models, potentially due to chip supply limitations and strategic deployment considerations.
Sep 18, 09:10 AMRead on Substack →