★ Priority · 21
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- SPY holding within bull flag channel with key gaps at $747 and $762/$766.
- QQQ making higher lows near $700 downside gap, signaling potential support.
- Cyclical sectors (RSP, XLI) oversold near moving averages, presenting potential buy opportunity.
TGIF: I Am Not Satisfied That the Appellant Is Bisexual
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- AI company resignations becoming a trend, with engineers leaving between competing firms.
- Jacob Coxon left OpenAI for Anthropic, then resigned after four months.
- Highlights instability and burnout in high-profile AI sector roles.
(Idea) GeoPark’s Venezuela Deal Creates More Upside—And A More Difficult Valuation
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- GeoPark's Venezuela Bare Block acquisition significantly increases upside potential, with management targeting ~$1.2B EBITDA by 2030 vs ~$280M in 2025.
- The Bare Block is a massive producing asset with straightforward path to higher production over the next several years.
- Previous valuation framework using 3x EV/EBITDA multiple no longer applies given the transformed company profile and expanded growth opportunities.
Return
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author explores distinction between 'moving on' as surface performance versus genuine 'moving forward' while carrying unresolved grief and absence.
- Hebrew concept of teshuva encompasses both repentance and return to one's true self rather than becoming an entirely different person.
- Personal resilience narrative examines performative coping mechanisms and the challenge of progress when carrying significant emotional weight.
Douglas Murray: Who’s Afraid of the ‘Far Right’?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- AfD's electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt stems primarily from mass immigration concerns, not far-right ideology, yet media labels it as such without nuance.
- The term 'far right' is overused by journalists as a simplistic descriptor that obscures the legitimate policy grievances driving AfD support.
- AfD requires serious, careful political analysis rather than superficial characterization to understand Germany's shifting political landscape.
Niall Ferguson: 9/11 Did Not Doom the American Empire
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- 9/11 and current geopolitical tensions have revived debate about whether America functions as an empire, with different interpretations across the political spectrum.
- Niall Ferguson challenges the post-9/11 conventional wisdom that the attacks doomed American imperial power.
- The piece traces how both left-wing progressives and some neoconservatives interpreted 9/11 through the lens of American imperialism in the Middle East.
Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear
PRIORITYLe Shrub and PauloMacro from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Bull market in memes driven by political events like Bessent's appointment and Trump's proposed $5,000 voter checks.
- Commentary on current market dynamics with humorous, irreverent tone reflecting trading floor sentiment.
- Author disclaims this is parody financial content from a self-described shrub trader, not professional advice.
Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Conversation covers bonds, Anthropic IPO prospects, and risks of AI disruption to civilization.
- Market conditions described as challenging but navigable through humor and perspective.
- Discussion framed around current political environment and meme-market dynamics.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Trump administration proposing $5,000 dividend payment to all adults, testing fiscal policy boundaries.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent facing market pressure on deficit projections and fiscal fence definitions.
- Author comparing current spending promises to previous trillion-dollar level debates with skeptical tone.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trump campaign promising $5,000 dividend to adults contingent on Republican midterm victory, signaling free money politics.
- Author argues politicians consistently overpromise fiscal transfers, undermining fiat currency credibility.
- Recommendation to hold real assets as hedge against currency debasement from unfunded political promises.
betting on direction with short-dated spreads
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Short-dated option spreads can capitalize on directional bets while benefiting from asymmetric pricing conventions.
- Higher implied volatility makes call premium growth outpace put premium, favoring call-financed hedges in expensive vol environments.
- Option pricing models assume percentage-based moves, creating log-space symmetry but dollar-space asymmetry that affects strategy design.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Equal-weight stocks (RSP) showing weakness and approaching oversold conditions, suggesting a potential tactical bottom in this range.
- A hot PPI/CPI print could trigger overreaction and push RSP to test 100-day moving average, while softer inflation could provide relief and broaden market tape.
- Market pullback is at advanced stage where technical levels and inflation data will likely determine whether sell-off continues or reverses.
Yes, AI Might Really Kill Us All. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Jacob Coxon's viral resignation post from Anthropic raised alarm that AI companies are racing toward superintelligence while gambling with existential risk.
- The debate has reached mainstream attention with 125+ million views, drawing responses from AI researchers including Anthropic's Evan Hubinger on risks of self-improving AI.
- Silicon Valley is intensely focused on whether AI capabilities could pose an existential threat by decade's end, with internal disagreement between safety-focused and accelerationist researchers.
Ed Miliband: The Gimp
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author argues UK Labour government prioritizing appeasement of anti-Israel constituencies over Jewish security and national stability.
- Government accused of using distant geopolitical performance (Gaza focus) to distract from domestic failures on immigration and safety.
- Commentary warns of escalating extremism and radicalization risks resulting from perceived policy abandonment of British Jews.
(WOMM) What’s On My Mind - The Venezuela Land Grab
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Foreign capital reaccelerating into Venezuelan oil after years of sanctions and instability, with Chevron and Eni committing billions.
- Venezuela's crude production has collapsed from 3M to 1.2M bpd, creating massive restoration opportunity but high geopolitical risk.
- Author cautions against early-stage land grab participation unless capital at risk is minimal, given acute risks in initial phase.
(WOMM) What’s On My Mind - The Venezuela Land Grab
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Foreign capital reaccelerating into Venezuelan oil after years of sanctions and instability, with Chevron and Eni committing billions.
- Venezuela's crude production has collapsed from 3M to 1.2M bpd, creating massive restoration opportunity but high geopolitical risk.
- Author cautions against early-stage land grab participation unless capital at risk is minimal, given acute risks in initial phase.
When Abortion Pills Become the Weapons of Abusers
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Woman alleges her boyfriend forcibly administered abortion medication against her will while she was eight weeks pregnant.
- Boyfriend became aggressive after she revealed pregnancy and refused his demand for abortion, citing family shame.
- Case highlights emerging danger of abortion medications being weaponized against women in abusive relationships.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- OpenAI accused of stealing work product from researcher and using millions in compute to win a math prize.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims he has insight into Bank of Japan intervention decisions, drawing criticism for hubris.
- Aldebaran released impressive drill results; broader market absurdity continues with AI and policy overconfidence driving sentiment.
Frontiering
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Market bottoms are identifiable hindsight through checklist approach; lowest expectations/sentiment represents safest entry point (thermal coal example).
- Thermal coal sector experienced full expectations burn: economist cover declarations, sole ETF liquidation, bankruptcy warnings, and extreme sentiment reversal.
- Offshore oil services shows slower turnaround but similar bottoming pattern; most sectors require years of depressed expectations before sustained recovery.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE YEN? PART 2
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Under Trump 2.0, exchange rates have become U.S. policy choice rather than domestic decisions for foreign nations, evidenced by Argentine peso intervention.
- Historical precedent for multinational currency coordination (Plaza Accord) shows interventions can be lucrative when understanding policy intent.
- Government currency defense proves costly when interest rate differentials required exceed economic sustainability thresholds (HK HIBOR example at 20% above Libor).
Unpaywalled:"Achievement" is a fickle mistress
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- The post explores how achievement-focused thinking can be misleading when preparing young people for post-secondary life decisions.
- Kris Abdelmessih connects college admissions strategy to broader life preparation themes applicable beyond high school transitions.
- The piece challenges conventional achievement narratives and suggests alternative frameworks for thinking about success and future planning.
Macro · 15
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets higher as yields stabilize; 10-year yield at 4.94%.
- Asian markets declining (Japan -50bp, China -1.2%), signaling weakness in major economies.
- CPI data and 10-year yield trajectory key themes as market watches inflation trends.
No Regrets & The Second Strait
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- US diesel crosses $6/gallon for first time as Houthis seize Mocha port and threaten Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- Brent crude up 10% since Monday ($107) as supply chain uncertainty escalates Middle East tensions.
- Bond market faces inflation pressures if Houthi blockade persists, threatening administration's pre-election narrative.
Midweek Macro Note: Portfolio Strategy Update, Natural Gas Outlook, Bond Bonanza
MacroEdge Research
- Hot PPI data triggered a selloff in rates with SOFR futures pricing 25bps of tightening by June 2027 ahead of CPI.
- Speculation about Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's pipeline routing oil around Strait of Hormuz extended the market decline.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent's hawkish rhetoric appears to be driving recent yield increases since his bold market statements.
Shorting the Dollar by Drinking Free First Growth Bordeaux
Michael Burry
- Quantum computing advances (IBM's Starling by 2029) pose existential risks to digital asset security including bank accounts, pensions, and cryptocurrencies.
- Lack of guardrails on quantum progress could create dangerous transition gaps where digital claims become unverifiable and unsafe.
- Dollar may accelerate loss of reserve status to real assets like gold as investors prepare for a cyberpunk future with compromised digital security.
Kotok Report Quick Take — PPI is Hot!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- August 2026 PPI for intermediate demand showed significant increases: processed goods +1.8%, unprocessed goods +1.1%, and services +0.3%.
- Processed goods inflation sharply reversed from July's -0.6% decline, signaling renewed inflationary pressure in the producer economy.
- The report indicates potential upstream inflation headwinds that could eventually translate to consumer price pressures.
Interest Rates and Stock Prices: An Old Debate Resurfaces!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Long-term US Treasury rates have risen to 20-year highs amid concerns that $40+ trillion in US debt may be hitting a tipping point for bond buyers.
- New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's unclear policy direction creates uncertainty ahead of mid-September FOMC meetings.
- The post examines interest rate movements in 2026 within longer-term perspective and compares US Treasury performance to government bonds in other currencies.
Mismatched velocities and dynamic rebalancing
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Reframes China's saving puzzle from 'why do households save so much' to 'why don't they spend their rising incomes,' focusing on structural dynamics rather than psychology.
- Integrates Pasinetti-inspired economic framework with thermoeconomic analysis to offer alternative understanding of Chinese macro development beyond conventional imbalance narratives.
- Challenges standard policy discourse by examining compositional drivers of consumption patterns through Chinese scholarship and economic theory lens.
Yen Repatriation Starts with the Whale
Japan Macro Advisors
- GPIF's 10-year JGB fair value target of 3% has been reached, matching the 2013 forecast that triggered its pivot away from bonds.
- Current 25% weight in domestic bonds appears too low; replication of GPIF's allocation rule suggests 50% weight is appropriate given zero real returns.
- Expected GPIF reallocation signals major shift in Japan's cross-border capital flows, with repatriation of yen likely beginning.
Yentervention
Gold and geopolitics
- Japan's 4% of global GDP is exerting outsized impact on world markets amid growing geopolitical and economic instability.
- Japanese government debt sustainability appears disconnected from typical economic constraints, having sustained high debt levels for decades without visible consequence.
- Yen intervention and technical price action suggest a critical inflection point as markets test resistance levels not seen since the 1990s.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- China's PPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected and CPI up 0.8%, marking first inflationary print after prolonged deflation narrative.
- Energy prices surged 7% month-over-month with downstream products rising due to Hormuz-related disruptions, driving most of the inflation increase.
- Initial positive inflation data in China could signal the beginning of a trend reversal, though broader economic headwinds remain.
The Mechanics Of Commodity Allocations
Prometheus Research
- Commodity prices are driven by persistent nominal economic growth trends and marginal demand from production inputs rather than purely financial flows.
- Supply shocks from wars, technological innovation, and other disruptions create unique risk-adjusted return dynamics in commodities separate from demand factors.
- Despite elevated energy prices, systematic approaches continue to identify commodities as essential portfolio components given current macro backdrop and Iran conflict dynamics.
Why Hasn’t It Broken?
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- Global financial system stability depends on central banks' ability to control short-term interest rates, which has been leveraged to its limit.
- Holding rates near zero inflates all asset prices simultaneously by making money cheap to borrow and carry.
- The monetary policy tool that has prevented financial system breakdown is nearly exhausted, signaling potential structural instability ahead.
Two Money-Losing Companies Are Holding Up The Whole Economy
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Steve Eisman warns that OpenAI failure would trigger immediate U.S. recession and massive market correction.
- Two money-losing companies (OpenAI and likely one other) now support entire U.S. economy, creating systemic risk.
- Gap between ubiquitous AI usage and actual profitable business models represents the core vulnerability in market pricing.
History Lesson: 2022 Supply Chains
Macro Musings by Danny D
- 2022 supply chain disruptions from Ukraine war caused simultaneous inflation across all sectors; current 2026 Iran-related disruptions mirror that pattern.
- Key distinction between transitory vs. permanent supply shocks: 1-month oil disruption differs fundamentally from 6+ month disruptions.
- Critical questions on labor supply permanence, tariff consistency, and supply chain restructuring effects on forward prices remain unresolved.
When Higher Rates Stop Helping a Currency
Global Macro Method
- Higher interest rates alone do not guarantee currency strength when those rates are weakening the underlying economy.
- Australia's NAB survey shows negative business conditions despite elevated cost pressures, creating an unsustainable policy path for continued rate hikes.
- The FX opportunity lies in identifying which currency has a more credible tightening path versus which one depends on rates its economy cannot sustain.
Culture · 15
Weirdness of General de Gaulle, zoonotic fever in the Indus Valley, PISA decline, Paradise Lost
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- New General de Gaulle film offers French perspective on WWII with Americans portrayed as primary villains.
- Great leaders often possess profound eccentricity and detachment from reality rather than relatability.
- Ambitious transformative figures typically neglect social skills and personal life in pursuit of monomaniacal greatness.
Shana Tova
Jonathan Rosen from House of Rosen
- Rosh Hashanah represents a signal for personal and spiritual renewal through reflection on past actions and future commitments.
- The author expresses deeper embrace of Jewish identity and commitment to amplifying Jewish voices on his platform.
- Transformation requires acknowledging what needs to change entirely rather than simply pressing a reset button while circumstances remain unchanged.
The Aboriginal Issue
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Author witnesses stark contrasts in Darwin's Northern Territory Supreme Court between the immaculate legal building and desperate street scenes.
- Describes a drunken altercation between Aboriginal men that reflects deeper systemic issues affecting Indigenous Australians.
- Establishes the Aboriginal issue as central challenge facing Australia through visceral observational narrative.
Halos & uppercuts: 2 kettlebell moves that build a wraparound core and cut your abs & shoulders
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Kettlebell halos and uppercuts effectively build core strength and trunk stability critical for injury prevention in aging bodies.
- These two moves train rotational strength and anti-rotation control, addressing damage patterns from everyday activities like overhead luggage placement.
- Dual benefit targets both functional core health for posture maintenance and aesthetic shoulder/arm definition when performed consistently with proper load.
9/11 and the spirit of resilience and remembering
Bob Pisani
- Bob Pisani witnessed the September 11 attacks firsthand and reflects on 25 years of community resilience and remembrance efforts.
- A new generation unborn during 9/11 is now learning the importance of remembrance through scholarship programs and commemorative events.
- The 9/11 community continues to demonstrate resilience by transforming grief into support systems like college scholarships for families of victims.
Shea Serrano never intended to become a writer. He built a cult following as one anyway.
The Substack Post
- Shea Serrano built a massive following as a writer despite never intending to become one, now running the newsletter Good Movie and podcast Organizing Things.
- He maintains an obsessive film collection of 1,319 VHS tapes cataloged in a Google Doc, with 400 favorites alphabetically organized on shelving.
- Serrano is a five-time New York Times bestseller and trailblazer in digital media who previously wrote for The Ringer.
Shea Serrano did the math on podcasting. Betting on himself was the winning equation.
Substack
- Shea Serrano's success demonstrates the financial viability of podcasting on Substack through calculating audience value and betting on independent ownership.
- Multiple Substack podcast initiatives thrived recently, including W. Kamau Bell's Pushkin partnership and Diabolical Lies returning $120k to subscribers.
- The platform is experiencing a podcast boom with native creators and traditional media partnerships driving growth in audio content distribution.
Hands-on workshops, pottery studio visits, and meals that celebrate flavor, craft, and time
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Kimbap serves as an ideal introduction to Korean cuisine, featuring contrasting flavors (salty, tart, rich, savory) and textures (unctuous, chewy, crisp, tender).
- Korean food is fundamentally defined by fermentation, with pickled radishes and soy-based sauces providing grounding and harmony amid bold flavor contrasts.
- The post invites readers to explore Korean markets, barbecue alleys, fermentation studios, and temple kitchens to understand the full scope of the cuisine.
Toxic Positivity
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- The Raygun documentary exposes how everyone close to Rachael Gunn knew she wasn't skilled at breaking but chose flattery over honesty, enabling her to reach an Olympic stage unprepared.
- A pattern of toxic positivity masked the underlying cruelty: enablers pivoted to admitting the truth only after her public failure made it safe to do so.
- The post argues the internet's ruthlessness pales compared to the real cruelty of loved ones choosing comfortable lies over difficult truths.
Hot Sauce MacGyver
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Hot sauce fermentation requires precise saline solution at three percent salinity and careful bacterial management.
- Submerging peppers below the waterline is critical to prevent mold and yeast contamination.
- Author uses improvised food-grade plastic screen with glass weight for effective fermentation vessel engineering.
Patrick Clancy and the Stupidification of America
Kaizen Asiedu
- Gen Z shows first-ever recorded IQ decline vs prior generation, accompanied by collapsing attention spans and rising mental health disorders.
- Social media algorithms and information feed structures systematically degrade cognitive function and emotional regulation across all demographics.
- Intellectual confusion and poor discernment stem from algorithmic saturation of short-form content; resisting requires deliberate, constant effort.
Women Need to Take the W on Motherhood
Square Man
- A wealthy man who achieved financial security undermined himself through lifestyle inflation and reckless risk-taking rather than enjoying his achieved position.
- Self-created financial problems coupled with externalization of blame exemplifies how psychological patterns override material circumstances.
- The narrative critiques the inability to recognize and accept personal victories, instead pursuing endless acquisition and control.
No Thanks
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Author pushes back against compulsory gratitude culture, arguing that basic human decency should not require constant thank-you notes.
- The proliferation of emails requesting signatures on thank-you notes for organizations supporting Jewish causes trivializes the importance of substantial solidarity.
- Commas matter in language; refusing gratitude for baseline human behavior is not the same as ingratitude.
The strange case of J.K. Rowling
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- J.K. Rowling overcame rejection (12 publishers), single motherhood, and financial hardship to create 600M+ book sales translated into 85 languages.
- Beyond commercial success, Rowling donated >£200M to charitable causes including MS neurology clinic honoring her late mother.
- Founded Lumos charity dedicated to ending child institutionalization, which has helped 280,000+ children transition from institutional care.
The 5 Best Recipes You Have Never Heard Of
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Chris Kimball shares five lesser-known recipes from his travels that have significantly influenced his cooking approach.
- Panque de Elote (Mexican corn cake) discovered in Mexico City stands out as a lighter, superior dessert blending American cake and cornbread textures.
- Pesto di Limone from Amalfi, Italy represents one of Kimball's all-time favorite takes on traditional pesto variations.
Politics · 12
The Emptiness of Contemporary Politics
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Contemporary politics operates as empty spectacle with both parties exploiting voter anxiety for short-term gains.
- Democratic and Republican platforms lack substantive solutions to real problems like healthcare costs and housing affordability.
- Political discourse relies on villainization and narrative rather than coherent policy responses.
The Problem With Cheering For The Underdog In Geopolitics
John Aziz
- UK PM's policy justification based on underdog status is problematic as geopolitical decisions should prioritize fairness and legal principle over relative power dynamics.
- British cultural emphasis on supporting underdogs in sports contexts creates misapplied framework for serious foreign policy decisions affecting human rights.
- Proper foreign policy should center on rule of law and equitable treatment regardless of which party is stronger, not on romantic notions of backing weaker actors.
Hating America and Blaming the U.S. for 9/11
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- A 2002 book review reveals how progressive intellectuals articulated anti-American stereotypes while disavowing violence, ultimately suggesting US faults justified 9/11.
- The authors cite US military interventions and policies as reasons for global hatred of America, rooted in American insularity and self-absorption.
- The piece critiques the fundamental dishonesty of progressive discourse that blames America for terrorism while appearing to condemn violent acts.
Anniversary Update: Charlie Kirk's Most Misunderstood Messages
Kaizen Asiedu
- A year after Charlie Kirk's assassination, his messages remain profoundly misunderstood, with accusations of hate speech conflating his actual words with how critics interpreted them.
- The post argues that society should have embraced a principle of rejecting violence as a response to speech, but instead descended into conspiracy theories.
- Kaizen Compiles short-form videos addressing persistent lies and misrepresentations of Kirk's statements, particularly regarding race, to clarify broader principles.
You Told The Jews To GO HOME. We Did.
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Shana Meyerson responds to antisemitic calls for Jews to 'go back to Poland' by highlighting that 90% of Polish Jews were murdered in the Holocaust.
- The post establishes historical roots of Jews and Jewish identity in Israel documented across Torah, Christian Bible, and Quran.
- The piece is a transcript of a video published on the Unapologetically Jewish YouTube channel addressing antisemitic rhetoric.
Democrats, the DSA, and the Working Class
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- DSA members are primarily college-educated professionals, not true working-class revolutionaries.
- Democratic Party shift toward professional-class influence rather than socialist takeover.
- Discussion addresses misconceptions about DSA's role within Democratic Party structure.
The first man to die on 9/11 was an Israeli commando
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Danny Lewin, Israeli commando and tech pioneer, was first person killed on 9/11 while resisting hijackers.
- Lewin's content delivery network algorithms kept internet infrastructure online during and after 9/11 attacks.
- Muslim advocacy group curriculum misrepresents 9/11 causation, attributing flight to Israel rather than terrorist hijacking.
The Ghost of 1991: How Europe Got Addicted to the US ‘Unipolar Illusion’ -- and Can Build a Better Future
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Western military strategy shaped by false lessons from 1991 Gulf War's precision victory, creating unrealistic expectations about technology solving geopolitical problems.
- Europe and NATO remained structurally unprepared for prolonged attritional conflict despite three decades of strategic planning.
- Author identifies 35-year 'Unipolar Illusion' as root cause of Western alliance's vulnerability in current 2026 geopolitical landscape.
Trumpalooza Midterm Helicopter Money
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Trump promised $5,000 'Trump dividend' to all US adults if Republicans hold Congress, totaling ~$1.35 trillion.
- Energy crisis persists with diesel at $5.94/gallon all-time high and Brent crude up 70% YoY, undercutting the dividend promise.
- US-Iran military conflict escalating with multiple ship attacks and vessel sinkings, risking becoming Trump's 'forever war' despite election promise.
False Promises
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Author critiques government corruption and irresponsible rhetoric around foreign military involvement via debt-burdened Americans.
- Commentary highlights disconnect between domestic policy failures and focus on distant geopolitical conflicts.
- Post uses satire and cultural references to challenge the narrative framing of Middle East policy and its domestic consequences.
Palestinian Poll Shows Majority Support For Negotiations With Israel And Rejection Of Violent Resistance
John Aziz
- August 2026 poll from JMCC shows 55.8% of Palestinians support peaceful negotiations with Israel, while only 13.3% support armed resistance.
- 17.8% of Palestinians favor nonviolent civil disobedience tactics similar to MLK and Gandhi.
- Recent polling trends indicate Palestinian public opinion has hardened in favor of diplomatic solutions over violent approaches.
The Victims of Flight 93 Taught Us More Than Heroism. They Taught Us Citizenship
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Flight 93 passengers demonstrated that self-governance requires deliberation, courage, and sacrifice for the common good.
- American constitutional system depends on citizens taking personal responsibility rather than relying solely on government institutions.
- The heroism of Flight 93 passengers illuminates the civic virtues necessary for democracy to function beyond voting and jury duty.
Energy · 11
More Floating Steel
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Houthis advancing toward control of Bab-el-Mandeb strait amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Shipping disruptions creating investment opportunity in the shipping sector.
- Red Sea instability directly impacting global maritime trade routes.
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/10
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Houthi control of Red Sea routes, particularly Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, creates severe supply chain disruption risk.
- Saudi Arabia suffered largest production drop since 1990 with output reduced more than 50% from recent attacks.
- Oil and gas markets experiencing outsized volatility driven by geopolitical escalation in Middle East.
(Public. No Paywall) When a Chart Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Oil Exports from Western Ports
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Saudi Arabia's oil export patterns from western ports reveal significant strategic shifts in global energy flows.
- Chart analysis provides crucial insights into OPEC+ production strategy and geopolitical implications for oil markets.
- Western port export data serves as key indicator for monitoring Saudi production compliance and regional trade dynamics.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 9-4-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- EIA crude inventories down 0.4 MMB while SPR drew 1.2 MMB; US crude storage at lowest level since 1984 when combined with commercial stocks.
- Spot WTI at $104 now exceeds estimated fair value based on EIA inventory pricing model, signaling caution for long positions despite ongoing supply concerns.
- Gasoline and distillate inventories gained significantly (+1.3 and +2.1 MMB respectively) while crude imports surged unexpectedly with Nigerian imports soaring.
Ontario’s Nuclear Plan Is The Right Way To Go
jaberwock from jaberwock’s Newsletter
- Ontario's nuclear expansion strategy represents sound policy despite opposition from anti-nuclear advocacy groups and politically-motivated media criticism.
- Environmental Defence Foundation's anti-nuclear activism has previously driven policy reversals like Indian Point closure, raising electricity costs and CO2 emissions in New York.
- Nuclear power offers superior decarbonization path compared to alternatives, though faces headwinds from well-funded advocacy organizations and partisan political opposition.
OPEC+ Data Deck (September 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- OPEC+ crude output rose 627 kbpd in August, with Iraq leading gains through aggressive discounting and shuttle trade activity.
- Saudi Arabia's crude production crashed to 6,238 kbpd in August due to Houthi attacks and maritime bans, lowest level since Desert Storm in 1990.
- The data deck provides detailed tracking of member-level production, quotas, compliance, and exports for comprehensive OPEC+ market analysis.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatility coal prices firmed to $284.30/t fob on two major trades above survey range.
- SGX coal futures show sharp curve inversion with October through December contracts declining while September rises.
- Market dynamics driven by producer selling and international trader positioning in seaborne coal.
Oil is going nuts again - remember these rules before getting too bearish
Macro Is Dead
- WTI/Brent crude up 20% this month approaching $100/bbl on Middle East escalation premium, but physical-to-paper spread suggests Chinese refiner competition rather than true supply crisis.
- Market incorrectly priced-in persistent war premium; physical barrel spreads collapsed before futures pricing did in March-April, warning against over-extrapolating current spikes.
- China's changed reserve position shifts oil market from supplier-surplus-driven to demand-driven, but demand fundamentals don't support ultra-high prices despite geopolitical risk premium.
(Public. No Paywall) When a Chart Worth a Thousand Words: Mexico’s Crude Exports Collapse to a 50-Year Low
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Mexico's crude exports have collapsed to 50-year lows, a major contributor to recent $15+ rally in Brent and WTI.
- Recent oil price increases reflect supply drops from multiple countries beyond Hormuz tensions or Chinese demand.
- Chart analysis shows structural decline in Mexican production capacity with significant supply-side implications for global markets.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Met coal markets slowing with PLV at $281.30/t and tier-two HCC unchanged; participants awaiting clearer price direction.
- China side more interesting with PLV cfr China at $301.40/t and tier-two cfr north China at $267.85/t unchanged.
- SGX futures mixed and directionally unclear with front curve entirely flat across September through December contracts.
The cow that lays golden eggs
Irina Slav on energy
- Spain is pushing the EU to establish a permanent climate tax on oil and gas companies to fund climate resilience initiatives.
- The EU's regulatory environment increasingly mandates that economic activities must not cause substantial environmental damage and favors locally-produced green materials.
- Current EU policy creates a challenging business environment for energy companies through escalating taxation and procurement restrictions.
AI · 8
The Agentic Transition Playbook 🧠
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- AI agents enable 2 engineers to outpace 50-person R&D teams through increased throughput and reduced organizational friction.
- Startups gain asymmetric advantage as AI agents can rebuild incumbent codebases faster than original creators can iterate.
- Age of single-person companies enabled by agentic AI systems upending traditional organizational economics.
No, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill all humans by 2030
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Gary Marcus debunks Jacob Coxon's claim that AI could kill all humans by 2030, stating there is no credible basis for this five-year extinction scenario.
- Coxon's credibility as an ex-OpenAI and Anthropic employee provides some insight into thinking at those companies but does not qualify him to speak authoritatively on existential AI risk.
- The piece distinguishes between what Coxon can accurately testify to from his three years at AI firms versus speculative claims outside his expertise, criticizing media for failing to make such distinctions.
How I’m using AI for homeschooling
Khe Hy
- Author using Claude AI to create customized teaching materials and educational accessories for homeschooled children while traveling.
- Singapore Method math curriculum being supplemented with AI-generated teaching tools to adapt to child's learning style.
- AI applications demonstrating potential for personalized education at scale, reducing friction in curriculum customization.
The Singularity Paradox
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI companies employ competing internal factions: safety-motivated researchers working to prevent AI-caused extinction and accelerationist researchers confident AI will save humanity.
- Jacob Coxon's viral first-ever public tweet breaking his silence on AI existential risk exemplifies frustration from the safety-focused camp within OpenAI and Anthropic.
- The industry paradox: companies feed both wolves simultaneously, maintaining public commitment to safety while aggressively racing toward superintelligence capabilities.
You pay for two frontier models and route almost everything to one. Both Mac apps are yours for an email, and the …
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- OpenAI's Astra model faster iteration cycle enabled more user feedback integration than Fable 5.1, creating compounding advantage over time.
- Speed of model response directly impacts user preference formation; rapid iteration allows better error correction than slower alternatives.
- Comparing frontier models requires equivalent testing conditions; accumulated practice with one model biases subjective preference assessments.
BREAKING: Two rays of hope
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Senator Blumenthal sent OpenAI a letter demanding transparency about AI agents and their involvement in hacks, mirroring Watergate-era accountability questions.
- Protect Democracy filed a lawsuit pushing the Trump administration to be transparent about AI evaluation criteria, addressing concerns about favoritism and opacity.
- Lack of transparency in US AI regulation creates unpredictability for businesses, harms scientific input, and enables potential authoritarianism.
The Last 24 Hours Are the Opening Scene in a Horror Movie
Ted Gioia
- Multiple senior AI scientists from OpenAI and Anthropic are publicly warning that advanced AI could pose existential risks within the decade.
- Recent departures include OpenAI resignees citing unresolved alignment problems and lack of safety mitigation plans.
- Prominent AI researchers including Evan Hubinger, Anna Wang, and Jakub Pachocki have endorsed concerns about AI safety without credible solutions.
The Case for Boycotting Generative AI
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Gary Marcus calls for public boycott of generative AI due to known but unmitigated risks from frontier labs.
- Anthropic and OpenAI scientists have publicly acknowledged the alignment problem lacks viable solutions.
- Marcus argues the time for action has come given the irreversible and dangerous nature of current AI development without public consent.
Trading · 8
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- September WASDE report expected Friday with USDA updates on corn and soybean yields and Black Sea disruption assumptions, though credibility questioned due to political influence.
- Author maintains bearish bias into Friday's report based on fundamental cash market weakness rather than yield projections alone.
- Strategy involves discounting official WASDE figures immediately while acknowledging market participation will drive price action regardless.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/11
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Gap-down pattern persists with ES and YM experiencing Asia session rally that triggered LAAF (Liquidation And Arc Failure) on bearish RTH gap.
- Short confirmed on rejection of 7655-7659 support zone from below, providing safer entry point for directional positioning.
- NQ monitoring responsive seller levels at 5160-level range as part of broader technical setup across equity index futures.
a simple, crazy-effective, calendar effect trade in macro etfs
rj
- Calendar effect trades based on timing and date patterns can be highly profitable when understood through cause-and-effect analysis rather than raw data mining.
- A bond trading strategy developed from understanding calendar effects delivered nearly 4000% unlevered returns over 20 years with less than two trades per month.
- The strategy requires understanding why calendar effects work, not just exploiting the pattern itself, and includes a free Colab notebook for execution.
Answers to AMA Part 2
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Successful trading requires building a diversified toolkit of multiple strategies tailored to individual temperament, not just jumping on market trends.
- Relationship-building and mentorship matter as much in trading desk meritocracies as P&L performance, with politics influencing career advancement despite measurable performance metrics.
- Sell-side traders should develop varied strategies generating multiple P&L streams rather than relying on a single directional approach to markets.
the nausea.
Hugh Hendry
- Major market drawdowns (50%+ declines) within genuine super-trends function as mechanisms that build compressed potential for future gains.
- Psychological challenge is distinguishing genuine trend dislocations from terminal declines; deep drawdowns remove weak believers and create energy.
- Successful investors must emotionally tolerate severe short-term losses as the price of capturing outsized long-term returns in structural trends.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/10
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- ES leading downside since loss of 7706-7712 support level with NQ remaining more resilient than ES.
- Trading strategy focuses on shorting ES paired with NQ resistance and longing NQ at support levels to capitalize on divergence.
- Overnight inventory correction rally following ES spike down, with key reference levels being NQ daily 630-645 and ES at last Wednesday's 91.25.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Fairlead Strategies identifies rotation out of former market leaders creating entry points at rising 200-day moving averages.
- Summer market rotation has brought stocks back to technical support levels offering attractive risk-reward setups.
- Weekly idea targets stocks benefiting from sector rotation patterns based on technical analysis.
Trading Post September 9, 2026
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry sold entire December 2026 puts on NVDA and PLTR to avoid time decay and is pulling back portfolio exposures.
- Trimmed all long and short positions across the portfolio while maintaining largest positions in LULU, MOH, MELI, and others.
- Retains 2027 puts on PLTR and QQQ and continues short positions in ORCL, PLTR, NBIS, NVDA and semis, with cash on hand to deploy strategically.