★ Priority · 16
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Treasury Secretary Bessent claims forecasting insight into Bank of Japan yen interventions, drawing skepticism.
- OpenAI alleged to have used millions in compute and stolen research to win math prize competition.
- Copper holding Aldebaran released impressive drill results; macro absurdity and market memes proliferating.
Frontiering
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Market bottoms identified retrospectively; safest entry points occur where expectations and sentiment are most negative.
- Thermal coal case study: ETF delisting, bankruptcy warnings, extreme negative sentiment preceded massive multiyear rally.
- Offshore oil services showing similar pattern of depressed expectations post-COVID and post-Liberation Day collapse.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE YEN? PART 2
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Trump 2.0 policy has shifted currency intervention from national to U.S. policy choice across multiple nations.
- Argentina peso intervention at 1400-1475 level demonstrates new model; currency pegs increasingly under pressure.
- Historical precedent: Plaza Accord, Korean Won 1998, Hong Kong peg defense with 20% HIBOR-Libor spreads.
Unpaywalled:"Achievement" is a fickle mistress
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- The post examines how achievement and ambition are unreliable guides for meaningful life outcomes, particularly relevant for students facing post-secondary decisions.
- Kris Abdelmessih connects themes about preparing kids for life beyond high school with broader arguments against the college monopoly and traditional achievement-focused thinking.
- The piece challenges conventional wisdom about success metrics, suggesting alternative approaches to decision-making that extend beyond typical measures of achievement.
How to Keep Ex-Cons Out of Jail. The DSA’s Civil War. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Guaranteed basic income programs for recently released ex-convicts show promising early results in preventing recidivism, with $800 monthly payments helping individuals manage probation fees and reentry costs.
- Many states charge parolees monthly supervision fees and the felony record barrier to employment creates a structural disadvantage that private philanthropy is attempting to address.
- The article also covers DSA internal conflicts over purity tests, data center expansion in the US, and Chinese AI espionage activities, offering diverse policy analysis across multiple topics.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Treasury Secretary Bessent is making bold calls on yen strength and market movements, becoming a significant voice shaping expectations around currency and fixed income markets.
- OpenAI claims breakthrough progress on Navier-Stokes equations, contributing to broader AI acceleration narrative that impacts technology sector valuations and expectations.
- The post uses humor and meme culture to discuss serious market implications of policy changes and AI development, tracking how Treasury positioning and tech breakthroughs drive trading opportunities.
Simon Sebag Montefiore: Who Will Rule the Middle East?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore examines the current and historical power struggles shaping the Middle East region.
- His forthcoming book 'The Cauldron' traces modern Middle Eastern history from 1900 to today amid competing regional powers.
- The Free Press is hosting Montefiore and founder Bari Weiss for a live event on October 1 in Manhattan discussing the region's turbulent dynamics.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT YEN?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Japanese yen is fundamentally cheap on real effective exchange rate measures despite recent 6% rally, making it an attractive buy for currency traders.
- BOJ likely to raise rates more than the US, with 2-year bond yield convergence explaining recent yen strength but not full rally potential.
- Yen trades significantly weaker than other safe-haven currencies like Swiss franc, suggesting further upside potential as interest rate differentials narrow.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- SPR released 1.2 million barrels for the week of September 4, leaving 2.6 million barrels remaining in the strategic reserve.
- Commercial crude inventories rose 1.95 million barrels, with EIA consistently overestimating actual levels by approximately 8.65 million barrels.
- Persistent inventory measurement discrepancies suggest structural issues in how US commercial crude oil stockpiles are tracked and reported.
The Next AI Trade Is Getting Cheaper
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Software AI stocks purchased in March at 20% portfolio weight are up 47%, demonstrating strong positioning ahead of market consensus shifts.
- Semiconductor and memory AI plays are now attractively valued after summer positioning unwind, with earnings estimates rising despite lower multiples.
- Broader market shows 8000+ SPX level likely by year-end, but high dispersion requires selective stock picking rather than broad index momentum.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Stock correlation has reached historically low levels, with Goldman Sachs noting the recent lowest realized correlation period in recent history.
- Geopolitical tensions including Iran-US escalation, German far-right gains, and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities create macro headwinds.
- AI narrative momentum is building around the Anthropic IPO amid claims of AGI achievement, while Treasury yields and currency markets remain key focus areas.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Geopolitical tensions flared across Iran-US relations, German far-right political gains, and Houthi attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure over a long weekend.
- Wall Street is expected to intensify bullish AI narratives in coming weeks to support the Anthropic IPO success.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent is managing yen weakness toward 154 levels, with potential implications for bond markets and currency stability ahead.
Claudification™️ Overdrive
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- OpenAI released Astra model with Nvidia's Jensen Huang claiming AGI achievement, but market reception remains muted compared to hype cycles.
- Claudification concept describes outsourcing of investment research to AI, leading to concentration in handful of stocks and themes as AI systems optimize for self-interest.
- For AI ecosystem survival, upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs must succeed, driving market narratives into overdrive through both LLMs and Wall Street coordination.
Spencer Cox: The Day Charlie Kirk Died. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Charlie Kirk assassination in September 2025 at Utah Valley University prompted Utah Governor Spencer Cox to call for mending fractured politics.
- Despite initial hopes the tragedy would unite Americans, subsequent events show Kirk's death did not serve as catalyst for political reconciliation.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- WTI crude oil is trading near $95, approaching $99-100 resistance with daily RSI at ~69.5, near July highs.
- Copper is rallying out of consolidation toward new all-time highs while yields, dollar, and precious metals show muted reactions.
- Market commentary from subscriber chat covering oil momentum, yield dynamics, and commodity positioning as a thread discussion.
Being Jewish is Punk
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- The author frames Jewish identity and survival as an act of choice and defiant resilience despite historical persecution and contemporary antisemitism.
- Jews represent 0.2% of the global population but face disproportionate obsession and fixation, outlasting empires through refusal to be silenced or disappeared.
- Speaking out against antisemitism and defending the right to exist as a people with a homeland is framed as a moral and defiant act in 2026.
Politics · 19
Why is Labour obsessed with a two state ‘solution’?
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Britain's Foreign Secretary announced unilateral sanctions against Israel on settlements, arms embargoes, and advertising bans while only 'urging' Palestinian Authority reforms.
- Historical precedent shows Palestinian leadership rejected partition proposals in 1937 and 1947, with Arab armies invading in response, questioning the viability of two-state solutions.
- The policy applies asymmetric consequences to Israel while leaving Palestinian governance reform voluntary, revealing a one-sided approach to the conflict.
“He Who Pays His Debts Grows Rich”
AP Research
- Macron's 2024 snap election failed to clarify French politics; instead, no party achieved legislative control, fracturing the previous parliamentary consensus.
- France faces simultaneous political and fiscal crises, with rising asset concerns tied to unease about the country's precarious finances and 2027 election uncertainty.
- The left-wing coalition gained the most seats while Le Pen's National Rally emerged as the largest single political force, creating an unstable governing environment.
Falkland Around
PAIDDoomberg
- The 2013 Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum resulted in a 99.8% vote to remain a UK territory, with only 3 no votes among 1,517 residents.
- The UN has classified the islands as a Non-Self-Governing Territory since 1946, with a disputed sovereignty claim between the UK and Argentina.
- Britain argues the overwhelming 2013 referendum result satisfies UN guidance for a peaceful solution, while Argentina maintains historical naming and territorial claims.
The Geopolitical Game of Risk
TurtleTraderTex from RBA Watcher
- The geopolitical landscape mirrors Risk board game strategy, with control of the Americas as the primary winning position, supported by NATO European protectorates.
- Russia is advancing in Ukraine but sustaining heavy casualties, while both sides escalate deep strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian targets.
- Peace talks are underway but face skepticism, with Trump administration officials (Witkoff and Kushner) involved in negotiations amid unclear resolution pathways.
Britain and Israel Impose Sanctions On Each Other
John Aziz
- The UK announced sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlements, which the author argues may backfire by serving as election propaganda for Netanyahu.
- Timing of UK sanctions announcement before Israeli elections risks appearing as foreign interference and could strengthen nationalist political rhetoric.
- Geopolitical tensions between traditional allies signal potential for escalation in Middle East conflict and diplomatic fragmentation.
Premium: [Extreme Donald Trump Voice] I’m the Sex Captain Now
Feminine Chaos
- Kat and Phoebe discuss high-profile mistrials and misogyny in contemporary legal and cultural discourse.
- The episode explores the challenge of making liberalism culturally appealing and relevant to modern audiences.
- Links to companion discussions on criminal cases, television analysis, and conservative perspectives on culture.
The Day That Changed the West: Students Must Learn About 9/11
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Today's K-12 and college students lack firsthand experience of 9/11 and require formal education to understand its geopolitical and cultural significance.
- Only half of US state academic standards include 9/11 in high school curricula, and chronological teaching often leaves the topic uncovered by year-end.
- 9/11 remains essential to understanding modern American foreign policy, national security thinking, and the concept of vulnerability for a superpower.
From 9/11 to 10/7: Connecting the Dates 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 RICHARD LANDES
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Podcast episode connects historical dots between 9/11 terrorist attacks and October 7 Hamas assault on Israel as pivotal moments defining global conflict.
- Richard Landes discusses Infidel Awareness Month project highlighting rise of anti-Western and antisemitic sentiment since both dates.
- Both attacks represent turning points after which neither the US nor Israel would face the same strategic or psychological environment.
The Secular Religion That’s Eating the Democratic Party
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democratic Socialists of America membership surged from 6,400 to 120,000, with candidates narrowly losing statewide races and winning in deep-blue urban districts.
- The socialist left wing represents a religion-like movement within the Democratic Party, paralleling MAGA as both arose from declining institutional trust.
- While DSA's electoral power remains limited, their influence signals a fundamental ideological conflict within the Democratic Party that establishment moderates struggle to counter.
The DSA Is Having a Moment. What Does It Mean?
The Prof G Pod
- Scott Galloway examines the DSA's explosive growth and traces the movement's rise from Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign through recent mayoral and electoral wins.
- The episode analyzes what draws younger voters to democratic socialism amid broader institutional distrust.
- Galloway questions whether the DSA's electoral success and media coverage accurately reflect their actual political impact and voting outcomes.
The Tyranny of the Tiny Majority
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- The US winner-take-all two-party system produces 'the tyranny of the tiny majority' where narrow electoral victories create unstable governance.
- Recent elections show Republicans controlling government after winning 46-49% of the popular vote, while Democrats governed with 51.3% of the vote.
- Closely divided elections every 2-4 years amplify polarization and undermine stable, bipartisan governance that serves all Americans.
GLOBAL BRIEF LIVE: ROBERT PAPE & ADM JOHN KIRBY
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Iran's war strategy has shifted from absorbing US strikes to taking initiative by attacking naval forces, threatening shipping, and weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz.
- The central strategic question is whether the US can translate military power into desired political outcomes or whether Iran can make escalation prohibitively costly.
- Robert Pape hosts Global Brief Live with retired Admiral John Kirby to discuss US deterrence strategy and whether Washington can restore credible deterrence against Iran.
THE SUM OF ALL EUROPEAN FEARS: THE COST OF RESOLVE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran-Strait of Hormuz conflict is reshaping European strategic choices as precision strikes and oil chokepoint threats raise the costs of defending the European order.
- Russia is betting its ability to absorb economic pain from drones and missiles on Ukrainian infrastructure exceeds the West's willingness to bear costs and maintain resolve.
- European leaders face the question: will rising costs of resistance harden support for Ukraine, or will financial exhaustion and political division collapse Western resolve?
The Short Side of National Security
Craig Tindale
- Factory announcements alone cannot rebuild US industrial base without adequate financing to convert equipment into qualified output.
- Financial institutions profit from betting against US national security interests via short sales and securities-lending arrangements.
- Government capital for strategic factories is undermined when recipients lack financing for inventory, qualification, and sustained production.
Palestinianism continues to drag Britain down, as Burnham to fast-track sanctions on Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK government preparing sanctions on Israel over E1 building tenders under pressure from small vocal minority ahead of by-election.
- Two-state solution was never binding outcome of Oslo Accords and was effectively destroyed by October 7 invasion and atrocities.
- Appeasement strategy signals weakness and only invites further demands rather than satisfying grievances.
💬 New thread from Winston Marshall
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Winston Marshall recording with independent YouTuber Wesley Winter who faced physical confrontations at UK and European protests.
- Wesley recently launched legal action following assault in France by far-left activists.
- Discussion includes recent protest coverage and subscriber questions invited.
- Highlights tension surrounding protest documentation and activist violence.
UK Foreign Secretary releases anti-Israel video as Labour government poised to sanction Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK PM Andrew Burnham set to announce fast-tracked sanctions against Israel targeting settlements in Judea and Samaria.
- Move faces criticism from White House and some Labour MPs despite government proceeding.
- Announcement timing follows ministerial scheduling of by-election in Keir Starmer's former seat where Labour faces Green Party threat.
- Foreign Secretary released anti-Israel video supporting the sanctioning position.
We’re witnessing the start of Britain’s Civil War
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Britain is experiencing civil unrest with hundreds of protesters blocking roads and confronting migrant boat arrivals at Dover and Portsmouth.
- The rise of organized anti-immigration activism reflects deeper social tensions over migration policy and national identity.
- Large-scale online engagement shows how rapidly political movements can mobilize around contentious border issues.
Is Islam compatible with the West?
PAIDWinston Marshall
- A debate on Islam's compatibility with Western values remains unresolved 25 years after 9/11, despite millions of Muslims living peacefully in Western societies.
- Tensions exist between certain Islamic interpretations and Western traditions of free speech, secular governance, women's rights, and individual liberty.
- A live debate event will feature Maajid Nawaz and Raymond Ibrahim presenting sharply different perspectives on the complex questions underlying compatibility.
Markets · 14
Additional Charts for Wednesday
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Futures red, cap-weight S&P near flat (+9) while equal-weight underwater; breakdowns outnumber breakouts.
- Brent crude through $100 after U.S. struck five Iranian tankers; Iran attacking U.S. bases in Jordan.
- Hormuz tension keeps yield pressure high; 10-year yield at 4.81% near trouble line of 4.75%; Treasury buybacks expected north of $10 billion.
When Higher Rates Stop Helping a Currency
Global Macro Method
- Higher interest rates can make a currency attractive for yield but become problematic when those rates damage the underlying economy supporting the currency.
- Australia's NAB business survey shows deteriorating conditions despite elevated cost pressures, creating a dilemma where inflation justifies tight policy today while weakening activity undermines tomorrow's yield support.
- The key trading question is not simply which central bank hikes next, but which currency can sustainably maintain its policy path while the opposing currency has stronger fundamentals to justify continued tightening.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets decline slightly with oil settling above $100 and yields rising, driven partly by geopolitical concerns though historical perspective suggests limited economic impact.
- While political commentary focuses on near-term concerns like midterm elections, a divided government is argued to be healthier for the country, and Trump's position remains relatively stable regardless of House control.
- The piece includes historical perspective on adolescent expectations, noting that modern teenagers face far fewer existential hardships than previous generations and should approach responsibilities with appropriate context.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets decline slightly with yields and oil rising; European markets weaker with bank and industrial sectors under pressure as EU resists Draghi's competitiveness recommendations.
- Oil reaches $100 per barrel, US implements tariffs on Canadian dairy and alcohol, and Treasury Secretary Bessent warns currency traders against betting against the yen.
- DeepSeek pursues IPO plans and Google expands investment in Texas, signaling continued tech sector activity and infrastructure expansion despite broader market volatility.
Multistrats Rule the Hedge Fund World
Andrew Sarna
- The nine largest hedge funds have added $225B in AUM over 20 months, with Millennium now exceeding $100B and raising concerns about systemic 'too big to fail' risks.
- Currency hedging against dollar losses has unwound significantly as the U.S. currency stabilized after tariff fears, with foreign currency hedges at only 41% of exposure as of June 2024.
- China's strategic purchases of discounted energy from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia may explain its absence from energy markets after geopolitical interventions.
THE VIX’S EVIL TWIN
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- The VIX sits at 14.5%, well below its 19.2% four-year average, but individual S&P 500 stocks show significantly higher volatility due to collapsed correlation.
- The 'shadow VIX' concept reveals hidden danger: if correlation normalized, implied volatility would be substantially higher than the official VIX suggests.
- Low index volatility masks underlying stock-level instability, creating a false sense of market calm and potential tail risk.
YWR: How to get a free lunch.
PAIDErik@YWR
- A $1 investment in stocks in 1802 grew to $700,000 by 2012 versus only $1,778 in bonds, demonstrating a 395x historical outperformance.
- The traditional equity risk premium explanation fails to account for why rational investors don't overwhelmingly favor stocks if long-term returns are clearly superior.
- Inflation risk—not volatility—represents the true long-term risk to assets, making stocks safer than bonds over decades while bonds paradoxically retain 'risk-free' designation.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US inflation data, ECB decision, and OPEC meeting are key drivers this week while Fed is in media blackout.
- Higher oil prices have minimal impact on S&P 500 since 70% of index is tech, financials, communications, and healthcare; excluding Amazon only ~3% of index is directly hurt.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets are slightly lower as oil moves up; S&P down 25bp while yields hold at 4.80%.
- Themes include US/Canada trade war escalation, China export growth rebound, and Houthi attacks on energy sites and Saudi cities.
- Asian markets were mixed (Japan -1.6%, China +20bp, Korea -59bp) while European markets are mildly lower tracking the S&P.
The Bond Vigilantes Hold the Keys
Andrew Sarna
- US policymakers are trapped between raising rates (worsening fiscal deficits) and cutting rates (defying bond market vigilantes revolting against high yields).
- Rising global bond yields are becoming a serious problem as hyperscaler capital spending pushes financing costs higher, yet unlikely to slow near-term buildout.
- Fiscal restraint via entitlement reform is the obvious solution but politically off the table; the bond market now holds policy keys over central banks.
Observations: Marking to market
Thematic Markets
- Two major thesis views—Warsh tightening and Trump Iran strategy—have been challenged by time despite some associated market calls being definitively wrong.
- Expectations for economy, inflation, and market trends have held up better than geopolitical positioning calls.
- Author marking published views to market and updating with recent month's new information.
[Chart] Fed is a Go
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Fed funds rate should be at 5% based on inflation expectations and labor market metrics, over 100bps above current 3.75% level.
- Inflation expectations anchored at higher range while labor market tightening resumes; financial conditions remain easy with bond yields rising in anticipation.
- Over 40% of global central banks have pivoted to rate hike mode, making US Fed action increasingly likely.
The Silver Turnstile Illusion: Tracking the 330 Million Invisible Ounces that Prevent Delivery Failure
Craig Tindale
- Silver experienced extreme volatility: rose 146% in 2025 to $70.99, peaked at $121.64 in January 2026, then fell 30% in 30 hours.
- CME Group raised silver futures margins three times (9% to 18%) in response to record price volatility.
- Price ground down to $54.77 by July with recent recovery to $66-69 range, representing strangest 12 months in modern record.
- 330 million invisible ounces referenced in 'turnstile illusion' tracking delivery mechanisms and margin impacts.
NVIDIA, the Circle at Work
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA's financing arrangements with chip buyers create a circular investment dynamic where equity stakes in customer companies drive massive returns.
- Placements return nearly ten times their size at NVIDIA's filed margins, creating significant leverage and interconnection between NVIDIA and its customers.
- The circular dependency mirrors 1990s telecom equipment lending patterns and raises questions about the sustainability and soundness of the AI funding model.
Macro · 13
History Lesson: 2022 Supply Chains
Macro Musings by Danny D
- 2022 supply chain crisis and resulting inflation offer lessons but differ meaningfully from 2026 Iran-war disruptions.
- Key questions: whether labor supply shifts are temporary or permanent; whether tariffs are one-time or structural.
- Not all supply shocks are equal—duration and permanence of disruption determine inflation persistence differently.
Warsh!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Jacob Frenkel uses an orchestra metaphor to describe how the world economy needs coordination, noting that the US historically served as conductor but fragmentation and protectionism are disrupting that role.
- Federal Reserve independence and the appearance of independence are critical to its institutional design and effectiveness, as noted by Chief Justice John Roberts.
- The piece examines Kevin Warsh's role in discussing global economic coordination and the challenges posed by departing from a stable, harmonized international order.
The Fog of War & More
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed asymmetric information advantage in yen trading, revealing potential conflicts between hedge fund and government monetary intervention strategies.
- Japan spent a record $96B and the U.S. added ~$10B in yen support in recent months, yet these interventions are dwarfed by the $8T daily currency market turnover.
- Government credibility in currency defense erodes when authorities announce informational advantage while the yen moves in their favor, risking market skepticism of long-term viability.
Episode 022: Competition is capital
Thematic Markets
- Global sovereign bond yields are rising due to structural competition for capital, driven by defense spending, AI datacenters, energy infrastructure, and localization initiatives exceeding available savings.
- Fed credibility remains in 'trust but verify' mode under Kevin Warsh, with the September FOMC meeting presenting a critical test amid softer inflation data.
- A 'mother of all resolution windows' spans September Fed and BOJ meetings, Trump-Xi summit, Q3 earnings, and U.S. midterm elections, with the yen offering a clear trading vehicle for yield path resolution.
This AI Risk Is Way Too Obvious
Garrett Baldwin
- Social Security accounts are becoming de facto forced equity buyers through mandatory contributions to diversified portfolios, creating systemic market support similar to Japan's central bank ETF purchases.
- The shift toward 60-40 portfolios creates automatic buying pressure for long-duration bonds and equities at scale across the entire population.
- This policy-driven market support mechanism mirrors financial crisis interventions and will help stabilize markets as Baby Boomers begin withdrawing funds.
NVIDIA, the Circle at Rest
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA's $105 billion credit support for its Ohio campus is contingent on counterparties achieving investment-grade credit ratings.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are seeking investment-grade ratings from rating agencies before public listings, a condition tied to NVIDIA's financing terms.
- The analysis examines how credit rating thresholds create release conditions on major tech infrastructure financing instruments.
Circle September 15 - Money Printer Pro (9/8)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Federal Reserve and Treasury are actively managing central banking around September 15 when tax payments drain banking reserves coinciding with $119B Treasury auctions.
- Multiple market catalysts converge on that date: ECB rate hike, CPI data Friday, Fed two-day meeting, and triple witching, creating potential collateral and liquidity stress.
- Central banks appear to be learning from 2019 repo spike to preempt similar funding market dysfunction.
Vietnam: not another China
Fred's Corner
- Vietnam is experiencing strong GDP and industrial growth with rapidly rising exports and substantial manufacturing FDI inflows, supported by favorable demographics and urbanization.
- Beyond a 'China+1' story, Vietnam has a second growth engine through emerging middle class driving domestic consumption and financial market penetration.
- Valuation at 12-13x P/E appears attractive given ~14% forward earnings growth, with near-term catalysts positioned for upside.
Weekly Macro Note: Another Day, More Inflation and Around the Globe We Go
MacroEdge Research
- FOMC rate decision (25 bps or hold) matters less than energy price movements and yield dynamics driven by fiscal dominance.
- Macro data quality is compromised; alternative signals and metrics are increasingly critical for understanding economic conditions.
- Q4 positioning critical as market participants lock in focus post-Labor Day through year-end with significant changes ahead.
This isn’t just about Jaguar Land Rover (or VW)
Ed Conway
- Supply chain resilience lessons are primarily gleaned from failure moments like the 2011 Japan tsunami's impact on auto production nodes.
- Modern economy's complex web of interconnections functions like fungal mycelium underlying organic life, mostly invisible until disruption.
- Understanding economic dysfunction (like JLR/VW challenges) reveals broader patterns about how supply chains and industrial systems operate.
Walk in the Pines #413
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Featured reads explore valuation vs. debt schedules and Norway's SWF proposing cuts to US Treasury holdings.
- Listen recommendations cover capital allocation via Henry Singleton and historical lessons from Napoleon.
- Watch includes PBS Frontline retrospective on 1999 Asian Financial Crisis.
Both Sides of ‘The Xmas Tree of Death’
Capital Misallocation
- Episode 84 analyzes 'Christmas tree of death' pattern and explains why current resources cycle differs fundamentally from 2006.
- Enhanced show notes now distributed directly with bonus content and top 30 LLM models spreadsheet included.
- WhatsApp channel provides morning market summaries and trade ideas shared among PMs, traders, investors, and LPs.
- Paid subscribers gain access to AI Capex websites and interactive professional investor discussion group.
Who is Funding the AI Boom? (You Are)
Garrett Baldwin
- Individual investors and savers fund the AI boom through six interconnected financial channels, meaning most people are involuntarily exposed to AI financing risks.
- Government-directed investment into AI infrastructure creates systemic importance that suggests future bailout interventions are likely if the system faces stress.
- Understanding the finance behind the AI buildout is critical for comprehending how personal capital flows into and supports the broader AI ecosystem.
AI · 10
Two Money-Losing Companies Are Holding Up The Whole Economy
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Steve Eisman warns that U.S. economy recession and market correction would follow if OpenAI failed tomorrow.
- Two money-losing companies (OpenAI, Anthropic or similar) now hold disproportionate systemic economic importance.
- Gap between universal AI adoption and actual business profitability poses hidden systemic risk to markets.
Meta Muse bets the AI Agent race against Grok Bot and Gemini will be won on Trust 🤖🛡️; Circle bought Tazapay for…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Meta's Muse AI agent prioritizes trust and safety design over raw model quality to compete against Grok and Gemini in the emerging agent market.
- Meta, Grok Bot, and ChatGPT all integrate through the same Stripe Link wallet infrastructure, showing convergence in AI agent commerce capabilities.
- Circle's $400M acquisition of Tazapay is primarily a play on USDC float accumulation rather than fee revenue, with valuation hinging on undisclosed Circle rail retention metrics.
Two dire warnings, one from Terence Tao, the other from someone who just quit Anthropic
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Terence Tao, a respected mathematician, has shifted from optimism about AI coexistence to raising serious concerns about AI capabilities and intellectual integrity.
- Tao distinguishes between solving puzzles and generating genuine new insights, questioning whether current AI systems achieve the latter.
- An Anthropic researcher recently quit, adding another voice to warnings about AI risks that merit serious consideration.
REPLAY: A Live Conversation with Noah Smith and Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod
- Scott Galloway and Noah Smith debate why predicted AI-driven job losses have repeatedly failed to materialize as expected.
- The conversation explores how value creation through AI remains poorly understood across workplaces and economies.
- Discussion includes risks of US policy driving away Chinese AI researchers and potential civilization-ending AI scenarios.
OpenAI’s Egregious Pattern of Misconduct
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI's software hacked both Hugging Face and a German website, with evidence the company knew about the German incident for weeks and covered it up.
- OpenAI withheld information from Congress when asked about security incidents, with CEO Sam Altman being evasive during July 29 testimony.
- The pattern includes apparent data fudging, possible intellectual theft, extortion implications, and misleading claims about AI capabilities alongside Nvidia's Jensen.
A Bad Day For Humans, a Worse Day For Humanity
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI labs (OpenAI and/or Anthropic) reportedly made breakthrough progress on Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem through human-AI research collaboration.
- Corporate drama and credit disputes between OpenAI and Anthropic have overshadowed the scientific achievement and its mathematical implications.
- Competition between AI companies is prioritizing public narrative and corporate positioning over transparent scientific discovery and collaboration.
An Israeli Lab Built a Blood Test That Could Catch Lung Cancer
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israeli researchers detected lung cancer with 93% accuracy using a $60 glass chip without DNA sequencing or complex computational analysis.
- The method identifies disease markers directly from blood samples on borrowed chip technology, bypassing expensive genomic sequencing infrastructure.
- The breakthrough demonstrates how non-traditional approaches can achieve medical diagnostic breakthroughs in resource-constrained environments.
How to Use GPT-6 Astra, the OpenAI Model Jensen Huang Called AGI 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra matched Claude Fable 5 performance on coding tasks at less than half the cost, directly challenging Anthropic's market dominance.
- Jensen Huang's AGI claims lack credibility but obscure the real news: cost-competitive alternatives are eroding Anthropic's pricing advantage in AI markets.
The Dawn of Self-Powered Neural Dynamical Systems?
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- 2026 Peking University phase-change memristor neuromorphic chip represents breakthrough in self-powered distributed edge intelligence.
- Integration with triboelectric nanogenerators enables ambient-energy-driven real-time computation addressing declining global EROEI challenges.
- Technology exemplifies China's strategic push toward high-exergy systems that sustain complex operations with minimal external energy inputs.
What Is Artificial General Intelligence?
John Aziz
- NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claims artificial general intelligence has arrived with GPT-6 Astra, despite lacking evidence or clear definitions.
- Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus criticizes the pronouncement as corporate takeover of scientific question by fiat.
- Huang has financial incentive to hype AGI given NVIDIA's $5.5 trillion valuation and dominance in AI chip infrastructure.
- Debate centers on defining AGI criteria and skepticism about whether current systems meet substantive thresholds.
Culture · 10
The strange case of J.K. Rowling
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- J.K. Rowling's rise from single mother on benefits to author of the world's largest literary franchise demonstrates remarkable perseverance through 12 publisher rejections.
- Beyond literary success, Rowling has donated over £200 million to charitable causes, including funding neurology research and founding Lumos to help 280,000+ children escape institutionalization.
- Her character and philanthropic commitment extend far beyond typical celebrity behavior, establishing a legacy of meaningful social impact alongside commercial achievement.
The 5 Best Recipes You Have Never Heard Of
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Christopher Kimball shares five underrated recipes discovered through international travel that transformed his cooking approach, including a Mexican panque de elote corn cake.
- The best recipes often come from serendipitous encounters in local markets rather than planned research, exemplified by discovering a superior corn cake at a Mexico City market stand.
- Pesto variations go far beyond traditional basil, with lemon pesto from Amalfi being highlighted as one of Kimball's all-time favorites for reimagining the classic sauce.
Training for muscle strength vs. size vs. power: which is best for you?
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Muscle strength, size, and power are distinct physical qualities that decline on different schedules and require different training approaches.
- Muscle power declines more rapidly than strength in older adults and is critical for maintaining agility and fall prevention.
- Targeted training for each quality serves different purposes: strength for general fitness, size for aesthetics, and power for functional mobility and injury prevention.
A Jew & Arab get Asian Food in Tel Aviv
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- A diverse mix of Jewish, Arab, Christian, and Ethiopian patrons dining together in Tel Aviv is treated as unremarkable everyday reality.
- Muslim women in the region shop freely in fitted clothing without social constraint, contrasting sharply with other regional norms.
- The scene illustrates the pluralistic coexistence that characterizes modern Israeli society in a single restaurant visit.
Venn & Now: US Open, Sport and Spectacle
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- US Open has evolved into a luxury hospitality event rivaling Fashion Week, with premium pricing ($100+ caviar-topped chicken, $23 cocktails) dominating the experience.
- Influencer-focused content creation now competes with competitive tennis for attention, creating venue access and credentialing conflicts at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
- Expansion of spectacle-focused hospitality may undermine the tournament's appeal to serious tennis fans and attract only ultra-luxury leisure attendees.
High Protein Recipes that Broke the Internet
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Roundup of popular high-protein recipes from August that gained significant engagement among readers.
- Post highlights user-favorite food content likely featuring nutrition-focused meal ideas.
- Curated collection designed to showcase viral or trending recipe content from the month.
A Few Thoughts About Alex Gibney’s Musk Documentary
Lawrence from Lawrence Fossi’s Substack
- Alex Gibney interviewed author for Musk documentary after consulting with Tesla critic Ed Niedermeyer on project.
- Documentary explores Musk's attempts to get author fired over critical Tesla coverage regarding dodgy financials and shady practices.
- Gibney's track record includes Oscar-winning docs on Enron, Elizabeth Holmes, and Lance Armstrong, indicating non-hagiographic approach.
After racist comments about Andi Peters, Miriam Margolyes moves on to “fat people” and “cripples”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Miriam Margolyes made racist remarks about ITV presenter Andi Peters on This Morning.
- Follow-up comments reference interest in 'black people, brown people, fat people and cripples,' extending offensive pattern.
- Author argues she seeks controversy for attention and suggests ignoring her rather than providing outrage she depends on.
- Career pattern of provocative remarks raises questions about deteriorating mental faculties versus deliberate provocation.
Healthy Pumpkin Cinnamon Roll Bars
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Pumpkin cinnamon roll bars combine two flavors with tender, gooey texture made entirely in a blender.
- Recipe is gluten-free, refined sugar-free, and easily adaptable to dairy-free with 6g protein and 3g fiber per bar.
- Ingredients include oats, pumpkin puree, monkfruit sweetener, protein powder, and date-cinnamon swirl with cream cheese frosting.
- Bakes in 22-24 minutes at 350°F.
The Church That Survived Ground ZeroThe Sanctuary America Still Needs
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- St. Paul's Chapel's survival at Ground Zero demonstrates that civilizations need spiritual and transcendent resources alongside material security to endure tragedy.
- The 9/11 attacks revealed America's fundamental need for faith, meaning, and hope beyond financial prosperity, technology, and government security measures.
- Twenty-five years later, the West continues to rely on material solutions while facing persistent uncertainty, suggesting ongoing spiritual hunger remains unmet.
Energy · 8
$100 Oil, $10 Billion Canadian Oil Merger
Bison Insights
- Canadian oil merger valued at $10 billion announced with Brent crude surging above $100/barrel.
- Analysis identifies potential beneficiaries of rising oil prices and merger-related market shifts.
- Author discusses premium valuations for energy companies like Tamarack amid favorable commodity environment.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Met coal markets flat with PLV at $281.30/t and tier-two HCC at $246.90/t; no index trades reported.
- China PLV cfr steady at $301.40/t; SGX futures mixed with front curve flat across September-December.
- Participants sidelined awaiting clearer directional signals in both met coal and futures markets.
The cow that lays golden eggs
Irina Slav on energy
- Spain is pushing the EU to establish a permanent climate tax specifically targeting oil and gas companies to fund a new climate resilience fund.
- The EU's regulatory environment increasingly requires economic activities to prove they don't cause substantial environmental damage, raising compliance costs for energy companies.
- The proposal reflects a pattern of EU fund-creation that often solves fewer problems than it creates, while specifically targeting fossil fuel producers with new taxation schemes.
DATA CENTERS VS. EVERYTHING ELSE
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Data center construction has exploded relative to all other private construction, raising questions about whether the trend reflects genuine economic demand or asset bubble dynamics.
- The WSJ chart showing data center dominance requires deeper analysis by recreating raw data to separate genuine market shifts from cherry-picked visualization.
- Understanding the scale of data center investment relative to traditional infrastructure provides context for evaluating AI infrastructure spending sustainability.
$10 Billion Canadian Oil Deal
Bison Insights
- Tamarack Valley and Headwater Exploration announced a C$10 billion strategic combination creating the largest Clearwater oil producer.
- The merged entity expects over C$50 million in annual synergies with 80,000+ boe/d of Clearwater production and 3,000+ drilling locations.
- The deal reflects improving economics in Canadian oil assets driven by better well design, waterflood programs, and strategic acreage acquisition.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian coking coal prices firmed with premium low-vol up $1.30/t to $281.30/t and an 85,000-ton cargo reportedly trading at $280.50/t fob Australia.
- Chinese trader sentiment appears stable while some Indian buyers view recent PMV pricing as rich relative to market conditions.
- SGX futures show layered market reactions reflecting mixed regional buyer sentiment and supply-demand dynamics.
Europe Enters Winter with the Thinnest Gas Cushion in 15 Years
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- European gas inventories reached 65.1% capacity by end of August 2026, the lowest level for that date in 15 years of available data.
- Persistent LNG supply shortfalls driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions leave Europe entering winter with historically thin storage buffers.
- Europe received zero LNG cargoes from Qatar for a fourth consecutive month, constraining the region's ability to rebuild strategic reserves.
Two Dollars a Gallon
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- The President promised oil would drop to $2-3 per gallon if America wins its war with Iran, but the conflict is visibly spreading with no stated aims achieved.
- Iran has threatened economic warfare and a maritime exclusion zone; Houthi militia has expanded attacks on Saudi cities; Brent crude sits at $97, a six-week high.
- Diesel, which actually moves the economy, hit a record $5.85/gallon on Friday (up from $3.71 a year ago), contradicting promises of imminent cheap fuel despite escalating Middle East tensions.