★ Priority · 17
Victor Davis Hanson: Can Trumpism Survive After Trump? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Victor Davis Hanson's new book examines whether Trumpism can survive as a political movement after Trump leaves office, analyzing his historic comeback to nonconsecutive presidency.
- Excerpt addresses core question of MAGA movement's longevity and organizational structure beyond its founder's direct leadership.
- Historical context provided on Trump's role as defining force in American politics since 2015 escalator descent through 2024 election victory.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Strong NFP data at 162k vs 55k estimates with positive revisions, yet equities and bonds remain flat likely due to long weekend positioning.
- 10-year rolling Treasury returns hit negative 2%, the worst in 100 years, contrasting sharply with +15% for US stocks and +11% for commodities.
- Despite structural bearishness on bonds and bullishness on real assets, traders are seeking asymmetric payouts when opportunities arise.
DO RISING YIELDS ACTUALLY EFFECT STOCKS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Rising bond yields typically depress equity valuations in emerging markets like Brazil, where the Bovespa derated from 1.5x to 1x sales as rates increased.
- US equities show inverse relationship to yields, rerated from 2x to 4x sales despite 30-year Treasuries reaching 5.2% (20-year high), driven by 'Anything But Bonds' flows.
- High mortgage rates tied to Treasury yields have historically preceded market downturns, suggesting current elevated valuations may face headwinds from rising rates.
TGIF: Once Postpartum, Always Postpartum
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Lindsay Clancy jury deadlocked twice, potentially resulting in mistrial if no verdict reached despite substantial trial proceedings.
- At least three female jurors spotted wearing pink, the color of Clancy supporters who view her as a victim of postpartum circumstances.
- The Free Press Book Club is growing with 3,500+ members actively discussing texts and community engagement.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- SPY closed the $769 gap and is testing Bull Flag resistance; QQQ closed $717 gap with upside potential at $730.
- MAG7 stocks continue roll-up pattern with potential to accelerate, providing important support for broader market.
- ARKK positioned for potential extension to new highs as opportunity set increases across equity indexes.
(Idea) Warrior Met Coal: Blue Creek Is Delivering, But Is It Still A Buy?
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek project is delivering on operational improvements with higher production capacity and lower unit costs.
- Stock price has outpaced fundamental improvements; shares rose from high $70s to ~$105, reducing valuation appeal despite strong business metrics.
- Author remains bullish on the business but less enthusiastic on shares at current prices due to valuation compression from metallurgical coal price rallies.
Tyler Cowen: Is College Still Worth It?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Cowen questions the value proposition of college as tuition costs escalate, highlighting $95,000 annual costs at non-elite institutions like George Washington University.
- He argues universities are failing to adequately teach AI skills across disciplines despite mounting evidence that AI will be critical for future employment.
- Cowen notes declining enrollments and the irony that students often possess greater AI knowledge than their professors, undermining traditional educational authority.
Gloria Steinem: What now?
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Barlow critiques contemporary feminism as having surrendered women's rights through misguided priorities around gender identity, border security, and selective political causes.
- She contrasts Gloria Steinem's legacy of focused activism on reproductive rights and sex equality with modern feminist movements she views as fragmented and compromised.
- The piece uses Steinem's death as a moment to assess the state and direction of second and third-wave feminism.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Yen strengthens +2% amid MUM intervention with bonds higher on dovish Fed comments.
- Nvidia acquisition of Hugging Face signals antitrust concerns diminish at $5T market cap threshold.
- NFP report timing creates asymmetric market opportunity if weak data drives equities higher due to Fed pivot expectations.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Massive USD weakness driving yen strength and lighting metals complex with geopolitical/macro implications.
- China crude sourcing becomes more competitive; Dubai-Brent spread blowing out to $12 premium as physical market tightens.
- Futures curve inversion suggests large position liquidation in flattener contango trades with possible capitulation.
sizing directional option trades
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Options should be used as surgical tools with a specific thesis beyond simple directional exposure; otherwise, buying stock is preferable.
- The post outlines two sizing approaches for directional option trades and their respective tradeoffs.
- Option sizing frameworks integrate into broader portfolio construction strategy and position management.
The dollar choice everyone has to make
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- September 15 to November 3 marks a critical 'resolution window' with major central bank meetings, political events, and corporate earnings.
- Fed policy and BoJ rate decisions will likely trigger significant market moves in currency pairs like USDJPY.
- Japanese yen strength could enable disinflation in Japan and reduce pressure on the BoJ to raise rates beyond 1.5%.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Stock indexes (SPY/QQQ) remain rangebound near support levels with untested gaps suggesting near-term volatility.
- Tech stocks including NVDA show recovery potential with new highs possible if momentum accelerates.
- Discipline advised over forced conviction trades; AMZN testing critical support levels requires monitoring.
Should Kids Use AI? A Debate. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- New York City public schools banned AI use for elementary and middle school students amid back-to-school season.
- Two educators debate AI's role in education: one argues for restrictions due to learning concerns, the other advocates productive integration.
- Central tension exists between protecting students from AI dependencies and preparing them for AI-integrated futures.
Chapter 8 - Competition Driven Shorts Beat Macro Shorts
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Russell Clark examines competition-driven shorts as more profitable than macro-based short strategies, using commodity producer examples.
- Historical case study shows how shorting iron ore and coking coal producers yielded better returns than macro oil bets in 2012-2013.
- Illustrates how supply-demand dynamics at company level can outperform broader macroeconomic thesis-driven trades.
WTF? WAFERS, TOO FAR?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Wafer makers like Siltronics and SUMCO face unprofitable operations due to excess capacity added years ago, with both forecast to lose money in 2026.
- SUMCO's share price surge may have been driven by momentum investing that is now unwinding as hedge fund demand reverses.
- Formosa SUMCO's strong monthly revenue trends and Taiwanese stock characteristics offer a comparative valuation anchor despite current industry headwinds.
The Devilish Legacy of Roy Cohn
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Roy Cohn's singular influence on Trump reflects a decades-long relationship where the fixer served as Trump's trusted political operative and legal strategist.
- Trump's 2017 plea for 'my Roy Cohn' during the Russia investigation demonstrates how deeply he relied on Cohn's ruthless problem-solving abilities.
- Cohn's legacy spans from McCarthy's anti-communist crusade to modern political fixerdom, illustrating his unique and controversial role in American politics.
Macro · 15
Using PSI to predict the next BoJ policy decision
Japan Macro Advisors
- Policy Stance Indicator (PSI) framework shows Bank of Japan board has shifted toward rate hike, predicting 7-2 vote to raise policy rate to 1.25% at September 18 meeting.
- Hawks Takata and Tamura lead board support for increases, with Takata suggesting possible 0.5-0.75% hike while most members support 0.25% increment.
- BoJ member voting patterns and policy speeches tracked through PSI scores on economy, inflation, and policy rate to forecast near-term monetary decisions.
Adverse Possession
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- U.S. has long history of property expropriation against enemies, allies, and citizens predating its reserve currency role, from slavery abolition in 1865 to recent Russian asset freezes.
- Russian central bank reserve freeze in 2022 prompted gold demand surge among reserve managers as counterparty risk hedge, but historical context shows expropriation is not new.
- Slavery abolition erased capital estimated to exceed nation's railroad and factory investments combined, demonstrating scale of U.S. seizure precedents.
💬 New thread from Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
- Macro cycle updates will focus on positioning and stop adjustments following recent market moves.
- Upcoming analysis will examine commodity mechanics and timing for establishing commodity positions.
- Discussion expected in Macro Talk podcast regarding current macro cycle dynamics.
The Ghost of Fiscal Future
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Global stocks climbed on dovish Fed commentary; September rate hike odds dropped from 70% to roughly evens.
- Long-end Treasury yields remain elevated at generation highs: US 30-year at 5.26%, UK 10-year at 2007 levels.
- US dollar privilege and Treasury safety assumption under pressure as government borrowing competes with data-center capital demand.
BoJ Policy Stance Indicator — The Primer
Japan Macro Advisors
- BoJ Policy Stance Indicator tracks all nine board members' stances on economy, inflation, and policy rates at each meeting.
- Swing voters like Koeda and Masu critical to watch; Nakagawa's April 2026 dissent changed policy trajectory.
- Text-based analysis of published minutes allows detection of subtle policy stance shifts beyond official voting records.
You Don’t Own Enough Japan!
Benny and The Squirrel
- Episode features Jesper Koll, a Japan bull, discussing investment opportunities and economic outlook for Japan.
- Show recorded in Tokyo with focus on macro analysis and Japan-specific investment thesis.
- Content paired with upgraded show notes and bonus material available via direct publication signup.
Welcome to Financial Repression 101
Garrett Baldwin
- Financial repression is the key macro concept to understand for the foreseeable future given current monetary and fiscal policy.
- Treasury Secretary's recent improvisational policy decisions resemble chaotic decision-making rather than coordinated strategy.
- Bond markets and geopolitical tensions are creating significant uncertainty around currency and medium-of-exchange stability.
The Ouroboros Out of the Cage
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- SoftBank-OpenAI leverage loop exemplifies terminal-phase financialization relying on fictitious capital divorced from real productive capacity.
- AI boom represents not industrial renaissance but final leveraged attempt to monetize speculative assets as traditional industrial returns decline.
- Structural decay of western techno-capitalism accelerates as arrangements benefit deal arrangers while retail investors absorb losses.
The Observatory
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus's Observatory presents real-time US economic monitoring through systematic dissection of major macro data releases.
- Latest jobless claims analysis shows cyclical expansion with a secularly tight labor market and improving claims breadth.
- Data remains well removed from recessionary averages and suggests positive implications for upcoming employment reports.
If There Was Ever a Regime to Own Commodities, It Was This
Prometheus Research
- Current macro regime shows positive nominal economic outcomes with elevated inflation, suggesting commodities remain favored assets.
- Prometheus' regime probability signals use bottom-up cross-asset data to forecast which asset classes will outperform under different growth and inflation scenarios.
- Rising growth and rising inflation regime persists, historically the period where commodity investments outperform equities and fixed income.
Are we seeing a secular bottom in Japanese yen?
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- USD/JPY exchange rate shows signs of bottoming similar to the 2012 low at 76, setting up potential major yen strength reversal.
- Historical parallel: Japan's Abenomics (2012-2015) used fiscal-monetary coordination and aggressive QE to weaken the yen and stimulate growth, similar structural forces may now be reversing.
- Carry trade unwinding and shifting interest rate dynamics between US and Japan suggest potential for significant yen appreciation from current depressed levels.
Pain Is Not Compliance
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Markets rallied on hopes of cooling Iran conflict and Fed capitulation, but history suggests pain-based sanctions rarely produce compliance from target regimes.
- Operation Economic Outcast aims to sever Iran's remaining economic lifelines with inflation exceeding 80%, yet historical precedent from Cuba shows embargoes can persist for decades without policy shifts.
- The distinction between inflicting economic pain and achieving actual compliance is critical for understanding the sustainability of current U.S. geopolitical strategy.
9/2 Portfolio Strategy Note & Commentary
MacroEdge Research
- Friday's nonfarm payroll will drive September rate hike pricing currently at 60/40 odds, though outcomes may matter less than broader fiscal market dynamics.
- Bond vigilantes have a limited window to spike the 10-year yield higher and trigger a 1987-style market event, constrained by persistent fiscal support in markets.
- Left-tail risks require black swan events to materialize given structural support from fiscal policy, limiting traditional mechanical selloff scenarios.
The Observatory
Prometheus Research
- Monetary policy shows material tightening pressures with short rates rising to elevated levels across pressure gauges.
- Limited curve steepening pressure exists despite elevated short-rate conditions, indicating constrained yield curve dynamics.
- Fixed income markets remain under sustained material pressure given the broader monetary tightening backdrop.
Nominal Growth Dominates
Prometheus Research
- Macro regime probabilities use bottom-up signals across asset markets to forecast the cross-asset environment and cross-sectional returns.
- Four distinct macro regimes are defined by combinations of growth and inflation dynamics, each favoring different asset classes.
- Forward-looking macro regime indicators incorporate both fundamental and price-based information for high-frequency cross-asset market analysis.
Trading · 12
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Russia struck another vessel at Chornomorsk port but wheat market barely reacted despite regional tensions.
- Wheat unlikely to follow crude oil's post-war trajectory due to fundamental differences: food necessity vs. fungible commodity.
- Oil story continues as WTI settles into post-war $90 range with ongoing geopolitical implications.
Trading Post 9/4/2026
Michael Burry
- Lululemon IV15 fell dramatically due to negative growth in China and US despite store expansion; global comp down 9%.
- Operating margin guided to mid-single digits with leggings down 20%; headline earnings beat was actually a miss adjusting for tariff bonuses.
- New CEO entering with lowest of bars; company retired 7% of shares at $142, below author's intrinsic value range of IV8-IV10.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- LULU trading below $100 offers fat pitch opportunity with 16-20% annual returns over 15-20 years in any growth scenario.
- Detailed analysis of lululemon's valuation, business fundamentals, and position sizing considerations for investors.
- Discussion of scenarios where company reestablishes growth trajectory and risk/reward setup at current price levels.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/4
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- PharmD_KS analyzes market setup with SPY and QQQ, noting a partial price breakdown overnight that put in a higher low and rallied higher.
- Post references support at 7661.25 on the 30-minute chart and discusses the tricky scenario being the most likely outcome.
- Content includes references to Discord community access, starter kit materials, and recent media appearances on Ninja Trader Live.
💬 New thread from PharmD_KS
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Premarket update notification for 9/3 with trading edge development segment.
- Author conducting live trading analysis on Ninja Trader with recorded option for asynchronous viewers.
- Chat integration for subscriber engagement and real-time market discussion.
Your Environment Will Beat Your Intentions Every Time
Sara
- Environmental design removes the need for excessive willpower by making better choices the path of least resistance.
- Practical trader examples show that optimizing conditions (hiding P&L, shortening sessions, adjusting timeframes) makes discipline less necessary than relying on internal motivation.
- Process-focused changes like bracket orders and trading limits automate discipline, reducing mental capital spent on resisting impulses.
Thinking Out Loud 9/2/2026 & FAM DCA Buys
TKTheContrarian
- Flutter (FLUT), owner of FanDuel with ~43-44% U.S. sports betting market share, has fallen from $300 to $100 per share despite strong 2026 EBITDA guidance of $2.87B.
- FanDuel faces pressure from prediction market makers, but at current market cap of $17.7B and modeled 2026 FCF of $760M, the valuation offers attractive risk/reward.
- Technical chart analysis shows FLUT has collapsed from 2025 highs, presenting a contrarian opportunity for investors like Michael Burry who see underlying value.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Selling resuming after crude oil peak with spillover into softs and grains overnight.
- Cotton down 6 cents and cocoa off similar amounts; sugar up 2% on Brazil forecast and tight Indian cash.
- Employment data tomorrow expected to set tone for September Fed meeting.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/3
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- RTH session volatile with overnight trades showing strength of planned approach.
- Service provides multiple names per day to track across major market indices.
- Readers directed to weekly macro analysis and starter kit materials for context.
What’s Next?
Garrett Baldwin
- Money Printer Pro unveiling new tools in September including 10 daily trade names and macro story analysis.
- Signal historically turns negative before major downturns and positive before rallies since 2020.
- Platform expanding beyond traders to broader investors interested in mechanical market dynamics.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Somnigroup International (SGI) shows oversold technical signals with a 23% decline since late June, establishing a higher low.
- MACD momentum and stochastic indicators suggest a short-term low has been established, supporting upside follow-through.
- Intermediate upside target near $80 around the 200-day moving average with support at $61 provides favorable risk-reward setup.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry emphasizes technical analysis as a serious tool for evaluating stocks and market movements, despite skepticism from some investors.
- Using portfolio ranking systems and day-chart visualization tools helps identify relative performance and market positioning.
- Technical analysis should be applied thoughtfully and layered with other research methods rather than used as a standalone strategy.
Politics · 12
I Didn’t Leave My Party, My Party Left Me
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Study examines 1,200 respondents who switched from Democrat/Republican to independent status between 2016-2022.
- Key drivers of party departure include rejection of team politics, desire for binary thinking alternatives, and preference for moderate positions.
- Rising independent identification reflects broader dissatisfaction with incumbent governments and demand for new electoral arrangements.
Did Israel Never Truly Want Peace with Palestine?
John Aziz
- Aziz critiques the Oxford Union debate motion that 'Israel never truly wanted peace with Palestine' as poorly framed and overly accusatory.
- He argues that attributing singular collective behavior to nations is futile since nations comprise millions of individuals with diverse ideologies and preferences.
- The piece examines how speakers struggled to directly defend the motion and instead pivoted to broader discussions of Zionism, historical Muslim-Jewish relations, and settlement expansion.
State Elections in September Will Test German Democracy
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- German state elections in September 2026 present a critical test of democratic principles as the AfD leads polls at ~28% nationally and over 40% in some regions.
- Germany's political establishment is attempting to exclude the AfD from governing by labeling it extremist, raising questions about respecting electoral outcomes.
- The AfD, founded as a sovereigntist party opposing eurozone policies, has evolved into a civilizationally conservative party reflecting citizen dissatisfaction with progressive orthodoxy.
Why Are We Asking ROCK STARS About Israel⁉️
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Critique of celebrities and rock stars presenting themselves as Middle Eastern geopolitics experts.
- Author emphasizes her own credibility through 20+ years of involvement in Israeli-US relations and political briefings.
- Questions why audiences trust unqualified entertainers over informed analysts on complex regional issues.
LIVE BRIEFING: PUTIN’S BLUNDER -- WHY HIS COLD REALISM FAILED IN UKRAINE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Putin's invasion of Ukraine challenges traditional realist assumptions about power, as Russia's military superiority has failed to achieve decisive political victory.
- Four years into the war, Russia cannot impose its political objectives despite enormous advantages in troops, missiles, armor, and firepower.
- The failure suggests Putin fundamentally misunderstood the nature of power and how it translates into achievable strategic outcomes.
It's a Slopulist World and We're All Just Living in It
PAIDKonstantin Kisin
- Konstantin Kisin critiques the deportation of provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos and his subsequent media tour claiming victimhood.
- Commentary satirizes the cultural absurdity of modern political discourse and the performative nature of some public figures.
- Examines how public figures weaponize grievances and inconsistency for attention and profit.
What does Donald do next?
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iranian leadership but the regime hardened around the IRGC rather than collapsing, with no popular uprising materializing.
- Tactical military success was achieved with 85% of Iran's weapons industrial base damaged, but strategic effect remains limited as Iran retains missile and drone capabilities.
- America expended over half of pre-war munitions stocks and global interceptor supplies are strained, raising questions about long-term military readiness.
How The Pro-Peace Palestinians Can Win
John Aziz
- Palestinian public opinion survey shows majority would continue resistance even after establishing state in 1967 borders.
- Author argues sustainable peace requires genuine agreement that is upheld, not just territorial concessions.
- Debates counterarguments about Palestinian statehood and Jordan alternatives.
How DEI Opened the Door to the Red-Green Alliance—and Why We Must Shut It
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Trump administration dismantling DEI programs but facing opposition from what author terms red-green alliance.
- Massachusetts Senate Bill S.2134 proposes permanent taxpayer-funded commission fast-tracking Muslims into state appointments.
- Author argues Islamism advances through peaceful institutions and political organizing, not just violence.
AMUSE
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Alexander Muse (@amuse) operates as one of the largest conservative political accounts with half a million followers and significant administration connections.
- His multi-platform presence across X and Substack reaches approximately ten million Americans monthly with direct influence on GOP decision-makers.
- Following his X restoration by Elon Musk post-2021, Muse transitioned from tech entrepreneurship to full-time political commentary and opinion leadership.
Engineered HATE: The Psychology Of Anti-Israel Propaganda (Part 2 of 2) | ANDREW FOX
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Anti-Israel and antisemitic propaganda uses sophisticated psychological strategies designed to manipulate perceptions and foster hatred through social media.
- AI algorithms amplify disinformation campaigns by programmatically spreading anti-Israel narratives to mass audiences.
- Understanding the psychology of disinformation and its societal costs is essential to developing effective countermeasures against coordinated propaganda campaigns.
Clarence Thomas: The Justice With the Courage to Stand Alone
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Clarence Thomas's jurisprudence is best understood through his formative experiences of poverty and segregation in Georgia, which shaped his skepticism toward institutional authority.
- Thomas's constitutional thinking represents a recovery of older understandings of constitutional government rather than ideological conservatism.
- Ted Cruz's biography argues that Thomas has been poorly understood by both critics and supporters, who have missed the depth of his constitutional philosophy.
Markets · 11
SB Energy, Quality of Cash: The Fourteenth Position
Cape Fear Advisors
- SB Energy IPO filing analyzed through lens of 14-position capitalization structure, with NVIDIA guaranteeing residual values on 4.25 gigawatt IT infrastructure leases at Portsmouth site.
- Quality of Cash methodology examines cash ranking in payment priority across 13 disclosed positions plus offered stock, tracing cash flow dependencies.
- Financial structure linking SB Energy and NVIDIA revealed through SEC filings for information technology load leasing arrangements with guarantee obligations.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets unchanged ahead of Employment Report; S&P near highs at +4bp with 10-year yield at 4.76%.
- Asian markets mixed with Japan up 5bp but China down 31bp; yen strengthening amid changing fortunes.
- Global demographic shift: people 65+ now outnumber children 5 and under worldwide for the first time.
ELECTION VOL: THE CHIP SHOT NOBODY’S TAKING
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Author is now net short the stock market via index put options, believing equities are underestimating hidden risks.
- Election volatility is the primary concern; put option insurance is cheapest during periods of maximum bullishness.
- Market has become complacent following Trump-related optimism, similar to patterns that led to a 21% S&P 500 loss in February 2025.
Short Thoughts - Cassandra in Flames?
Michael Burry
- Burry reflects on major portfolio losses including Tailored Brands bankruptcy and current struggles with his largest position in Lululemon.
- He describes a pattern of taking large positions in stocks that subsequently decline sharply, citing historical examples like Avanti which fell 50% before being acquired at 6x the low price.
- The piece explores the psychology of losing money and capital permanence in investing decisions.
I’ll be on with Pete Dominick on Substack at 1:15pm EDT... Don’t Miss it!
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Ron Insana announcing live appearance with Pete Dominick on Substack to discuss market commentary and financial insights.
- Live financial discussion format engaging audience with real-time market perspectives.
- Promotion of Substack live video platform for financial media content delivery.
Midterm Market Preview
Geiger Capital | Substack
- Midterm elections 8 weeks away with analysis of expected market movements through year-end.
- Author provides charts and notes on key assets and market positioning for September and Q4.
- Focuses on near-term market catalysts and potential volatility around election timing.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets are flat ahead of the NFP jobs report, with Treasury yields being a near-perfectly efficient market that prices information almost instantly.
- The post cautions against over-analyzing yield movements and recommends relying on book recommendations and domain expertise instead.
- Commentary includes a book recommendation for 'An Incomplete Education,' noted for its funny and cynical approach to covering historical and cultural topics.
The Odds Against Stock Pickers
Andrew Sarna
- Only 12% of active managers outperformed their benchmarks over the past decade, making stock picking exceptionally difficult.
- 79% of large-cap active equity funds underperformed the S&P 500 last year, marking the fourth worst result in 25 years.
- Data raises critical questions about whether individual investors can identify winning managers or gain edges through stock selection.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets are flat with minimal directional bias; international markets show mixed performance across regions.
- Economic data releases on trade balance, claims, and services PMI scheduled for the day ahead.
- Geopolitical tensions rise with China navy testing Japan; bond market concerns persist beyond borrowing alone.
A Reset into an Acceleration
Eliant
- Middle East tensions between U.S. and Iran drive crude oil and 10Y yields higher, dampening equities this week.
- S&P 500 down ~50bps while Nasdaq down ~100bps as tech underperforms broader market.
- Summer trading lows expected to reverse post-Labor Day with volume pickup anticipated.
The Scaling versus Profitability Trade-off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Venture capital's emphasis on scaling over profitability has become increasingly pronounced over the last two decades, contrary to balanced growth strategies.
- A scaling-first approach prioritizes growth metrics and market expansion at the expense of sustainable unit economics and profitability.
- The trade-off between rapid scaling and profitability has significant consequences for startups and broader market dynamics that warrant closer examination.
Culture · 10
Celtic war horn, the end of typing, Blindness, how to sell books
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Book marketing has shifted toward garish colors and iconic graphics to stand out in thumbnail images on digital platforms.
- Publishers emphasize simple emblems, bright colors, and large type to maximize visibility at small scales.
- Author's new book 'The New Dark Ages' is out this week with accompanying speaking event on death of reading in Edinburgh.
I Told Men +40 To Cut Alcohol To Save Their Erections. A Study Of 216,461 Men Says I Got Half Of It Wrong.
Nobody Talks About This
- Meta-analysis of 216,461 men shows light to moderate drinking (under 14 drinks/week) is associated with lower erectile dysfunction risk, contradicting prior advice to cut alcohol entirely.
- Protective effect of alcohol peaks around 11 drinks per week (odds ratio 0.81) but disappears at extreme consumption levels (145+ drinks/week).
- Author revises previous stance after reviewing dose-response curve evidence, acknowledging he got half his original guidance wrong.
The secret power of the foam roller, used wrong on purpose
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- New weekly workout series focuses on foam rolling and flexibility as foundation for preventing age-related injuries.
- Author's 48 years of lifting and 7 orthopedic surgeries inform belief that proper warm-up and form prevent costly long-term damage.
- Series will progress to weighted movements and higher-intensity progressions in subsequent episodes.
A Canonical List of Rich People Shit: August Edition
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Bezos now owns three Indian Creek homes worth ~$234M combined but remains excluded from the island's exclusive country club.
- Private concert by John Mayer at Hamptons venue became so exclusive that scalped tickets reached $4,000.
- August's wealth narrative highlights ongoing tension between extreme affluence and access to traditional elite institutions.
Six High Protein Desserts to Make for your Sweet Tooth
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Six high-protein dessert recipes designed to satisfy sweet cravings while meeting dietary protein goals.
- Recipes focus on combining indulgence with nutritional value for health-conscious consumers.
- Practical dessert options that support muscle building and weight management objectives.
EMP Alpha
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Personal reflection on Eleven Madison Park (EMP) restaurant and its exceptional service standards.
- Contrasts knowledgeable hospitality experiences across multiple visits to the Michelin three-star establishment.
- Uses restaurant visits as narrative framework for discussing service excellence and attention to detail.
What Should Be Done When Someone Cries in a Support Group
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Compares two support group approaches to handling emotional expression during Bible studies and recovery groups.
- Resilient Recovery model uses prayer and physical comfort versus 'holding space' approach that prioritizes unrestricted emotional release.
- Author questions theoretical foundations of each approach and implications for participant healing and group dynamics.
The little holes in your bread are telling you something
Ed Conway
- The holes in British sliced white bread are a clue to a fascinating postwar historical story with global trade implications.
- Bread cell structure varies significantly across countries, with British, South African, and Australian bread showing distinctive patterns unlike American or Singaporean bread.
- The essay connects seemingly mundane bread characteristics to broader themes in the author's new book on trade and economic history.
Is America Sobering Up?
Demography Unplugged
- U.S. alcohol consumption has declined to a record low with only 54% of adults drinking, down 13 percentage points from 2022.
- Binge drinking has also fallen to 13%, with larger declines among younger adults, men, and Republicans.
- Alcohol-related deaths remain elevated despite lower consumption levels, suggesting a disconnect between drinking habits and mortality outcomes.
Some People Have Real Problems
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Personal essay contrasting minor life frustrations (broken elevator) with past mental health struggles.
- Author reflects on progress and perspective, noting how seemingly big problems are actually trivial.
- Touches on resilience and gratitude for improved circumstances over two decades.
AI · 7
Pause OpenAI, now
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Marcus argues OpenAI cannot be trusted as steward of advanced AI technology despite maintaining concerns about AGI are overblown compared to immediate governance issues.
- CEO Sam Altman's trustworthiness questioned based on past reporting and recent corporate conduct, with latest Astra model release raising additional red flags.
- Article calls for pause on OpenAI operations citing poor corporate judgment and responsibility standards rather than imminent existential AI risks.
The Future
Andrew Sarna
- OpenAI released a frontier model reportedly outperforming Anthropic's Claude, with Sam Altman confirming labs are holding back models from public release.
- Tesla's Cybercabs launched in Austin with no driver or steering wheel at approximately half the cost of Uber rides, with potential future public investment opportunities.
- Tech sector momentum has weakened significantly, with market reversals suggesting interest rate concerns are easing but AI-linked valuations face pressure.
Claude Commerce Agents: Inside Anthropic's Merchant-Side Bet on Agentic Commerce 🤖🛍️
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic released Claude Commerce Agents on September 2, 2026, providing an open blueprint for building AI shopping and merchant-operations agents.
- Competition for agentic commerce dominates the industry with Google, Shopify, Microsoft, Perplexity, and Amazon all launching shopping capabilities, while OpenAI's ChatGPT Instant Checkout failed with conversion rates 3x below Walmart's direct site.
- Current market is focused on merchant-side infrastructure rather than consumer gateway control, with Claude positioning itself as a merchant operations platform.
Hot take on GPT-6 Astra
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Marcus credits GPT-6 Astra's use of symbolic world models as vindication for his decade-long advocacy of neuro-symbolic AI approaches.
- He cautions that ARC-AGI success does not prove AGI and expresses concerns about robustness in open-ended real-world tasks and lack of transparency on system internals.
- Marcus criticizes the selective marketing strategy of giving enthusiasts early access while excluding skeptics, predicting initial hype will be tempered over time.
The new Sanders-Casar Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act – and why I oppose it
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Marcus opposes the new Sanders-Casar Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act despite supporting some form of temporary pause on AI development.
- He argues a permanent unilateral ban is too broad, guarantees US disadvantage, and is naive about benchmarking complexities while enabling authoritarian gaming of rules.
- Marcus advocates for focused regulation on immediate risks rather than speculative future scenarios of AI planning to disempower humanity.
Should you trust Grok Bot (to manage your life)?
Khe Hy
- Elon Musk promotes Grok Bot for personal financial management with promise to 'make users whole' if failures occur.
- Shift toward out-of-the-box AI agents (Grok Bot, Instinct) eliminating need for manual setup and customization.
- Trade-off between AI convenience and risk requires users to trust autonomous systems with sensitive financial/personal data.
Elon Musk is on a prediction rampage, and most of the media can’t seem to figure out what to do about it.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Elon Musk has a pattern of making bold AI predictions that repeatedly fail to materialize, including moving timelines from 2025 to 2027.
- Gary Marcus critiques Musk's prediction track record and has offered million-dollar bets that Musk has not accepted.
- Despite rapid AI advancement, significant challenges remain that make superhuman AI timelines far more uncertain than Musk's claims suggest.
Energy · 7
The Next Oil Shortage - Nobody is Ready
Bison Insights
- Author discusses oil market dynamics and potential supply shortages in Triangle Investor interview, with timing coinciding with 2% oil price decline.
- Disclosures note author and advised funds own shares in discussed securities with ability to trade positions without notice.
- Analysis focuses on preparedness levels in oil markets for next potential disruption or shortage scenario.
No holds barred panification
Irina Slav on energy
- Climate fearmongering has overstated warming trends by predicting continuous year-over-year increases in temperature and extreme weather, despite evidence contradicting linear progression.
- Media coverage disproportionately amplifies dramatic climate narratives while ignoring evidence of weather variability and historical context.
- This summer's European weather difficulties have created panic-driven messaging that prioritizes agenda over factual accuracy and decency.
Oil Hit $90. That Is Not The Number That Should Worry You.
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel, but the more critical metric is refining capacity and conversion costs affecting consumer prices.
- Crude oil requires refinement into usable products; the bottleneck in this conversion process is what truly impacts inflation and pump prices.
- Geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have limited shipping but haven't yet caused dramatic oil price spikes, suggesting supply concerns are manageable.
North American Oil Data Deck (September 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- North American petroleum production rose 157 kbpd month-over-month to 31,242 kbpd in June, driven by Canadian production recovery from seasonal maintenance.
- Continental oil product consumption declined 483 kbpd year-over-year in June despite seasonal increases, reflecting pullback in consumer gasoline demand due to high prices.
- Monthly data deck provides detailed decomposition of US, Canadian, and Mexican upstream production and downstream refining activity with demand analytics.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- China remains primary driver of seaborne coking coal rally with tightening domestic supply.
- Argus PLV assessment increased to $276.30/t FOB Australia; premium prices supported by import availability constraints.
- Major Chinese mills transacting on index-linked basis and PMV cargo reportedly going to Chinese end-users.
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/2
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Energy markets are tightening through a multi-week 'period of patience' with crude floor support moving higher to ~$85 instead of prior lows of 72-74.
- Trump is reportedly seeking an off-ramp from Iran conflict as fuel and diesel prices exceed August 2022 Biden-era highs, but Iran policy constraints make de-escalation unlikely.
- Inventory levels will continue tightening through October as SPR drawdowns are exhausted and no new domestic or international production spikes are expected.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 8-28-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude inventories drew 4.5 MMB to slightly above seasonal average; SPR releases are projected to end in September unless new tranches are announced.
- When SPR releases cease, U.S. commercial crude inventories will draw at near-record rates as exports resume and imports remain elevated.
- Current WTI pricing at $90 remains discounted relative to fair value derived from EIA inventory models, with refiners managing heavy/light crude export preferences strategically.