★ Priority · 9
Tear Down This Museum! Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Critical theory's rejection of artistic hierarchy has become orthodoxy in elite art institutions, undermining traditional standards of quality and meaning.
- LACMA's renovation exemplifies how decanonization theory has transformed major museums from comprehensive repositories into ideologically-driven spaces.
- The essay questions what happens when institutions abandon objective standards of beauty and truth in favor of purely political frameworks.
A Vicious Double Standard in Publishing. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Simon & Schuster maintains relationship with Palestinian American novelist despite antisemitic remarks and praise for terrorists, revealing inconsistent publishing standards.
- Jewish writers report canceled events, pressure to downplay Jewish identity, and industry unwillingness to defend them against criticism.
- Publishing industry's claimed commitment to free expression and authorial neutrality is applied unevenly based on political perspective and identity.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- NFP data came in weak at -23k versus expected 80k, fueling market optimism that the Fed can maintain dovish stance.
- Chinese robotics leader Unitree IPO at $9bn valuation signals potential catalyst for robotics sector rotation, part of predicted 'Robo Ponzi Week.'
- Previous analysis identified US government support for domestic robotics industry as second major catalyst alongside Unitree IPO to ignite retail interest in the space.
TGIF: With the Exception of Pearl Harbor
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Free Press announces inaugural Forum Book Club with reader vote between East of Eden, Lonesome Dove, and A Gentleman in Moscow.
- Washington D.C. statues dormant since 1970s being regilded as part of broader beautification trend.
- Humorous commentary on regional differences between West Coast innovation culture and East Coast conservatism.
đź’¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Software sector rotation accelerating with massive earnings reactions; Atlassian (TEAM) surged ~40% on record multimillion-dollar deals including largest enterprise transaction in company history.
- AI adoption driving enterprise software performance as CEOs tout AI as transformational force; same optimistic messaging repeated from prior quarters.
- Earnings momentum in software suggests sustained enterprise demand for AI-enabled tooling and automation platforms.
đź’¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Employment data expected Friday with downside risk despite low initial claims; multiple indicators suggest potential weakness in jobs print.
- Any softness in jobs data could give Warsh policy reprieve and potentially boost metals if Fed rate cuts priced in.
- Iraq emerging as next major geopolitical flashpoint with 20+ million Arbaeen pilgrims converging, raising energy/stability concerns.
(Idea) Suncor Energy - Strong Q2 Results Despite Operational Challenges
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Suncor Energy achieved record adjusted funds from operations per share of $4.52 CAD in Q2 despite severe weather reducing bitumen production by 50,000-60,000 barrels per day.
- Company generated $5.329 billion in adjusted funds from operations, nearly matching 2022 Q2 record despite 50% more precipitation than historical average in Fort McMurray.
- Strong financial performance reflects improved operational efficiency and market conditions relative to previous quarters.
Douglas Murray: Tucker Carlson’s 10-Point Plan Is All About One Thing
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Tucker Carlson promoted a 10-point plan featuring abstract ideals (fairness, sovereignty, productivity, beauty, health, honesty, optimism, wisdom, decency, unity) without substantive policy details.
- Carlson devoted a 98-minute episode to a vague manifesto that suggests political positioning rather than serious policy framework or electoral strategy.
- Analysis suggests Carlson lacks the discipline and patience for actual political office despite positioning that appears to signal third-party political ambitions.
Ferg’s Finds (PGM issue)
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Platinum market faces critical supply squeeze with 2026 projected deficit reducing above-ground stocks to under three months of global demand.
- Declining above-ground inventories combined with steeply declining mine life across major PGM producers signals structural tightness in platinum supply.
- Hand-to-mouth market conditions (excluding China) create potential supply shock as industry approaches minimal buffer inventory levels.
Culture · 16
The Oxford Union debate clip that broke the internet — and what happened behind the scenes
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Oxford Union debate on Islam went viral after selective clips leaked, prompting full footage release that generated millions of views globally.
- Interview discusses BBC's Gaza documentary scandal and UK's inconsistent two-tier approach to law and media enforcement.
- Behind-the-scenes account reveals tensions between institutions and media control of controversial academic discourse.
Your strength didn't fade with age. It's your fast-twitch fibres, quiet since 35
Parent Fit Club
- Fast-twitch muscle fibers, lost preferentially with age, are rarely recruited in normal weekly activity and decline fastest after age 35.
- Aging separates being active from being strong; ordinary activity maintains slow-twitch endurance but neglects fast-twitch explosive strength needed for falls and emergency movements.
- Resistance training targeting fast-twitch fibers becomes increasingly important for preventing falls and maintaining functional independence with age.
FAIR Screening: 15 Days
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Documentary '15 Days' directed by Natalya Murakhver examines America's pandemic school closures and the 'flatten the curve' narrative.
- Film uncovers ideological and manipulative elements beyond the official narrative, showing bureaucrats prioritized interests over children's welfare.
- FAIR screening event on August 12 represents the final film of their summer series, with documented evidence of pandemic policy failures.
You're not a New Yorker until the developers come knocking
Amanda Hesser and Christene Barberich from Homeward
- Essay explores the experience of New York homeowners facing unexpected neighborhood development and renovation challenges with limited control.
- Discusses how individuals must adapt to significant changes in their living spaces and communities despite lack of advance notice.
- Frames personal housing struggles as a relatable moment of catharsis and learning for broader readership experiencing similar transitions.
An Open Letter To Peter Himmelman
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
A Saint for a Restless Age: Finding God in the Desert
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Film 'A Cross in the Desert' portrays 10th-century ascetic Saint Petka spending four decades in radical isolation pursuing spiritual fulfillment.
- Offers countercultural narrative rejecting materialism and self-actualization in favor of sacrifice and faith-centered meaning.
- Serbian-Jordanian production addresses contemporary Western search for transcendence beyond consumer culture.
Our Inaugural Trip to Japan
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Milk Street Cooking School conducted inaugural culinary trip to Japan in June with visits to premier restaurants and artisanal producers.
- Trip featured experiences with master chefs, knife forging in Sakai, fermentation specialists, and soy sauce production techniques.
- 2027 trip dates will be announced following successful inaugural journey showcasing Japanese cuisine and food culture.
Thugs, concentrated erotic insanity, benefits of coffee, educating electricians, was Freud right?
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Author argues cities serve as 'stranger exposure therapy' through casual conversations across class and cultural lines, fostering liberal values and social cohesion.
- Decline of spontaneous casual conversation in urban spaces threatens social fabric by reducing humanizing cross-tribal contact.
- Book 'The New Dark Ages' launching in four weeks with accompanying public events and conversations.
The Weird Effect Of Claiming To Speak On Behalf Of A Whole Group Of People
John Aziz
- Western leftists frequently attempt to speak on behalf of Palestinians despite Palestinian disagreement and lack of unified positions, typically with good intentions.
- Well-educated, financially stable Western leftists claim to fight for working-class and disadvantaged groups, creating cognitive dissonance between advocates and their supposed constituencies.
- Pattern of privileged groups claiming to represent marginalized populations reflects longstanding tension within leftist movements since Marx regarding class representation.
Is a Multibillion-Dollar Company Smarter than a 6th Grader?
Ted Gioia
- Companies increasingly adopt predatory 'audience capture and control' strategies borrowed from digital platforms to lock in consumers and extract maximum value.
- Even luxury brands like German automakers are implementing dystopian monetization schemes despite damaging customer relationships.
- The business world rewards executives for aggressive customer harvesting rather than holding them accountable for customer abuse.
An author’s $2 million book deal was pulled over suspected AI use. Where does publishing go from here?
The Substack Post
- A $2 million publishing deal for crime novelist Jerry Falade was pulled by his own agents over unsubstantiated AI use claims.
- This is the third major 2025 incident of AI allegations against authors, with two prior deals cancelled or disrupted; all three cases involve Black authors.
- The publishing industry faces growing authentication challenges as AI detection remains unreliable and authors face reputational damage even when denying allegations.
Slop art
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Personal essay contrasts the curated film experience of VHS/DVD era Blockbuster rentals with contemporary AI-generated 'slop art' lacking artistic intent.
- The author's journey from casual entertainment choices to deeper film studies illustrates how constraints and scarcity fostered meaningful engagement.
- The piece critiques AI-generated content for lacking the deliberate artistic vision and craftsmanship required to move audiences.
A Stanford postdoc's longevity lies
Inside Longevity®
- Stanford postdoc Kelly Cogan-Yoo falsely claimed board certification in neurosurgery and U.S. medical licenses while publishing daily longevity advice.
- Investigation found no evidence of claimed credentials: no California medical license, no U.S. board certification, and federal government doesn't issue medical licenses.
- Case highlights credibility crisis in longevity and health advice space as medical credentials become increasingly weaponized for audience trust.
High-Protein Stuffed Onions
Primal Gourmet
- High-protein stuffed onion recipe using blanched onion layers filled with seasoned ground beef and rice, braised in tomato broth.
- Designed as low-calorie, comforting meal prep option that improves with time as flavors develop overnight.
- Versatile cooking method including Traeger smoker option for added smokiness and restaurant-quality presentation with simple ingredients.
Your Bloods Came Back Fine. Here Are The Two Sentences For Your Next Appointment.
Nobody Talks About This
- SSRI antidepressants carry 3.28x increased risk of orgasmic dysfunction versus placebo, yet clinical trials often underreport sexual side effects.
- Patients and doctors maintain silence about medication-induced sexual dysfunction despite significant prevalence, creating information gaps in clinical care.
- Systematic review of 13 randomized trials covering 5,941 adults reveals undercounting of adverse effects when patients don't self-report symptoms.
Communist Party Techno, The Chartbook & The Refinery
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Modern China combines cutting-edge logistics and technology with accessible pricing, creating surprising consumer experiences like $2 same-day delivery.
- Beyond commercial efficiency, contemporary China offers vibrant cultural experiences—techno parties, high-end dining, and architectural pride—that defy outdated Western perceptions.
- Small, off-the-beaten-path Chinese destinations offer authenticity and value that major tourist hubs fail to deliver.
Politics · 13
John Anthony
Nico from AiQ
- Russia's new Banderol missile is faster and cheaper than Patriots to intercept, creating asymmetric threats to static infrastructure.
- Ukraine faces severe military challenges with uncertainty around future U.S. support under Trump administration.
- Pattern recognition suggests volatile market conditions ahead following observed 'John Anthony weeks.'
Tolerance, surrender, and Britain’s dangerous blind spot for Islamic extremism
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Liberal societies must maintain intolerance of ideologies that reject democracy, pluralism, and equal citizenship while preserving overall tolerance.
- Western progressives should scrutinize alliances with movements whose values on religious freedom, women's rights, and LGBTQ+ issues contradict stated progressive principles.
- Britain has been dangerously reluctant to have serious conversations about Islamic extremism and its incompatibility with liberal democracy.
UN data shows: no famine in Gaza. Barely any reporting in mainstream news publications
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UN nutrition survey data shows acute malnutrition in Gaza at 0.2-0.8%, far below the 30% famine threshold and comparable to pre-war levels.
- Gaza's malnutrition rates are lower than neighboring countries like Egypt (2.9%), Jordan (2.0%), and Syria (12%), contradicting widespread famine narratives.
- Politicians and campaigners described Gaza as facing starvation while UN physical measurements showed extremely low acute malnutrition, suggesting significant disconnect between rhetoric and data.
Will Israel Elect A Mizrahi Prime Minister?
John Aziz
- Israel's October 27 legislative election features unpredictable polling with Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar in close competition across multiple surveys.
- Recent polls show fragmented Knesset with Netanyahu's coalition parties potentially commanding 51 seats, though results vary significantly between polling organizations.
- The election represents a potential tipping point for both Israel's political direction and Palestinian affairs, with proportional representation creating unusual volatility.
Why A Democratic Socialist in the White House Is No Longer Unthinkable
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- 62% of Americans aged 18-29 now view socialism favorably, and 34% view communism favorably, a dramatic shift from historical attitudes.
- The Democratic Socialists of America have shifted from shunning communists five years ago to embracing them today, according to mainstream commentary.
- Ideas historically discredited by famine and terror are being repackaged as solutions among a generation too young to remember their consequences.
Why Washington had to Save Tokyo
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- US Treasury intervention in yen collapse reveals Washington now underwrites both military and financial security of allied economies.
- Escalation Trap thesis extended beyond battlefield into global financial system, reshaping economic and domestic politics.
- Markets watching whether Japan will follow intervention with deeper structural policy reforms and impact on US borrowing costs.
This Just Happened
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Syrian President Julani hosted Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani in Damascus for significant diplomatic meeting on regional cooperation.
- Meeting may signal beginning of political settlement fundamentally reshaping Kurdish nationalism in Syria amid broader Middle East shifts.
- Story demonstrates how major geopolitical developments often hide in plain sight while global attention focuses on more visible conflicts.
A career journalist covering spies and national security was hit with a $1 million defamation lawsuit. He turned t…
Substack
- National security reporter Jeff Stein defeated $1M defamation lawsuit over reporting on Pentagon health official Keith Bass with Substack Defender support.
- Case dismissed with prejudice in federal court, affirming the accuracy of Stein's reporting backed by authoritative sources.
- Demonstrates Substack's legal support infrastructure protecting independent journalism against high-stakes litigation threats.
ICE Age
Scott Galloway
- Trump administration's mass deportation campaign resembles authoritarian tactics through ICE killings, detention center abuses, and leaders enabling lawless enforcement.
- Administration has manufactured threats against immigrants, journalists, and professors while ignoring actual national security risks like Russian aggression.
- Mass deportations will likely cause inflation across agriculture, services, and construction sectors, contradicting administration's stated economic goals.
Dear Europe: It's Not Racist to Have A Rational Immigration Policy
Kaizen Asiedu
- Spain successfully managed 50,000-60,000 irregular border crossings at Ceuta in three days through military deployment and floating barriers, mostly reversing the surge.
- Western discourse on immigration policy lacks substantive analysis and remains caught between extreme positions rather than engaging rational policy considerations.
- Mass immigration events expose the quality of thinking about immigration policy in Western nations as fundamentally inadequate and ideologically driven.
A Conversation with Avi Abelow: Israel is on the Front Lines Defending the West
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Israel is framed as the front line of a civilizational struggle between the U.S./West and Iran's proxies backed by China, Russia, and North Korea.
- A strong defense of Israel's right to exist and thrive is presented as essential to restoring Western consensus and defending against foreign enemies.
- The conversation emphasizes connecting Israel's security to broader Western interests in the context of geopolitical conflict with hostile powers.
The Majority of Muslims and The Left Despise The Truth
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Convert from Islam to Judaism describes painful intellectual process of shedding layers of childhood indoctrination about national, familial, and religious superiority.
- Author reframes father's teachings as misguided parenting philosophy confusing contentment with unquestioning loyalty.
- Personal narrative explores tension between cultural conditioning and pursuit of intellectual truth across religious worldviews.
Is World War III Beginning? The Strategic Logic of Global War Expansion
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Regional wars expand into global conflicts when leaders strategically calculate that widening the battlefield serves their interests better than containment.
- Global war expansion is rarely accidental; it reflects deliberate military calculations rather than uncontrolled escalation or miscalculation.
- The Ukraine-Iran dynamic illustrates how tit-for-tat escalation between multiple parties can systematically expand conflict scope through rational strategic decisions.
Markets · 12
The Week That Matters (3rd Aug-7th Aug, 2026)
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- Victor Niederhoffer's 1998 Thailand crisis loss illustrates how investors underestimate the reflexivity of markets—where prices and behavior create feedback loops that overwhelm fundamentals.
- Thailand's asset devaluation triggered currency weakness, balance sheet damage, capital flight, and systemic banking crisis despite initially cheap valuations.
- Modern investors may be making the opposite mistake regarding Japan, potentially underestimating how market dynamics can amplify rather than stabilize fundamental imbalances.
July 2026 BA Real Estate update
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentine Senate rejected lifting rural land ownership caps for foreign investment, closing a key door for economic stimulus.
- Central bank refused to release reserves funding mortgages while courts rule in favor of mortgage delinquents, leaving private banks to absorb losses.
- Government interventions in property rights and financial markets are creating diverging transaction and mortgage trends with lasting negative impacts.
Wisdom of the crowds: prediction markets are more accurate than stock analysts
Bob Pisani
- Federal Reserve research and academic studies show prediction markets outperform Wall Street analysts in forecasting accuracy.
- Study of 469 Polymarket earnings contracts from 2025-2026 demonstrates prediction market participants are far more accurate than professional stock analysts.
- Wisdom of crowds in betting markets offers valuable forecasting improvement over traditional analyst consensus and expert predictions.
Why Is Wall Street Surging Again?
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Fed policy shift and benign Treasury QRA supported stock surge as deficit spending will be covered through bills rather than bonds.
- ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 with rising orders and lower inventories, signaling economic strength.
- Rare US-Japan concerted currency intervention halted yen weakness, reflecting coordinated central bank policy support.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Q1 2026 results show strong revenue growth of 4.4% YoY and operating margin of 37.2%, up from 33.5% YoY with 15% EPS growth.
- Company raised full-year product sales guidance to $30.1B despite Q2 GAAP net loss of $10.5B driven by acquisition write-downs.
- HIV and oncology segments both growing, indicating strength in core therapeutic areas driving underlying business performance.
YWR: Dirty Dividend stock thoughts
PAIDErik@YWR
- European banks have shifted from stability play to growth stage, with valuations re-rating from 6x to 10x P/E multiples.
- Portfolio companies showing steady 15% EPS growth with low capital requirements driven by 7% revenue growth and 0% cost growth.
- Future upside depends on growth in lending and capital markets, plus potential for additional rate cycles to support margins.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets moderately higher ahead of NFP data release with minimal substantive commentary.
- Commentary uses humor and analogy comparing financial markets to a casino with different player archetypes (VC, PE, quants, banks) in various games.
- Light content mix of market musings and unrelated observational humor rather than substantive analysis.
Investing in Argentina is Back in Vogue: Chart Pack for Adventurous Investors
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Argentine equities are experiencing renewed investor interest as catalysts drive breakouts and phase transitions from consolidation to expansionary price regimes.
- Latin American markets remain extremely undervalued relative to US equities on ILF/SPY ratio, with Argentina showing least undervaluation among LatAm peers.
- Author identifies chart patterns as signal for favorable risk-reward setups where breakouts create higher probability of success with limited downside and increased upside potential.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P 500 and international markets closed the week higher; European tech leading while Asia showed mixed results.
- Key themes include Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure draft, limits to FX intervention, and continued Chinese export strength.
- Employment report and consumer credit data due Friday; markets digesting geopolitical risks and tech sector dynamics.
The more you trade, the less you make
Bob Pisani
- Morningstar's annual study shows an 'investor return gap' of 1.2 percentage points annually—investors earn 8.7% vs. funds' reported 9.9% returns.
- The gap results from investor behavior: frequent trading, market timing, and inconsistent contributions reduce real-world returns by nearly 12% over 10 years.
- Data from 23,000 mutual funds and ETFs over a decade confirms that active trading and poor timing significantly underperforms a buy-and-hold strategy.
ZTEST Electronics Inc. (CSE: ZTE / OTCID: ZTSTF) Hitting the Reset Button
CanadianValueInvestors Substack
- ZTEST Electronics, small Ontario contract electronics manufacturer specializing in PCB assembly, recently transitioned from years of losses to profitability.
- New board and management team positioned to deploy accumulated cash reserves as turnaround accelerates.
- Classic small-cap turnaround scenario offering potential value opportunity in contract manufacturing sector.
It's Time To Be Bullish On Compute, Again.
Capitalist-Letters
- Great investors build 'latticework' mental models by integrating ideas from multiple disciplines and investing styles into coherent decision-making frameworks.
- Historical context, risk reduction approaches, and valuation discipline can be selectively applied based on market conditions and capital availability, as demonstrated by Buffett's investment evolution.
- Successful investing requires flexibility to match different investment approaches to different situations rather than rigid adherence to a single style.
Energy · 9
OXY's Plan for Financial FREEDOM
Open Insights
- Occidental Petroleum's new CEO Richard Jackson continues previous strategic direction with clarified financial goals under his leadership.
- OXY's Q2 2026 results indicate the company is on track to double its cash generation from 2025 levels while achieving a debt-free position.
- Plan is methodical rather than aggressive but positions OXY for significant financial freedom and improved balance sheet metrics.
Oil Context Weekly (W32)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Brent crude prices fell $8/barrel to $82/bbl following Trump's cancellation of planned Iran strikes and speculation about an imminent Hormuz deal.
- Weekly oil market analysis covers flat crude prices, calendar spreads, refined products, positioning data, and Middle East shipping flows.
- Paid subscribers receive detailed 40-page PDF positioning data deck with comprehensive market intelligence and context analysis.
China Puts a Floor Under Coking Coal
The Coal Trader
- Coking coal prices stabilizing with Australian premium low-vol hard coking coal rising $1.70/t to $216.35/t, suggesting floor after June correction.
- Futures curve in contango across all contracts through January 2027, indicating market pricing gradual recovery rather than immediate supply tightening.
- China providing constructive price signals with north China CFR PLV prices edging higher, supporting overall market stabilization.
Deeply desperate times
Irina Slav on energy
- European drought pushed water levels in major rivers to critical lows, forcing nuclear and coal plants to reduce or halt operations due to cooling water shortages.
- Hungary narrowly avoided shutting down its sole nuclear plant (40% of power supply) before Danube water levels stabilized and improved.
- Media outlets blamed fossil fuels for drought-induced outages while ignoring that nuclear plants faced identical cooling water constraints, demonstrating selective framing of energy reliability issues.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Canadian canola positioned for bullish setup following crop tours confirming yield concerns amid late plantings and July heat/dry conditions.
- MATIF positioning remains overbought despite recent cleanup; European traders returning from holiday expected to recognize value as crop problems materialize.
- Late-planted Southern Prairie fields face potential weather-driven yield stress after swinging from excessive May-June moisture to July heat.
Put Crudely, It's Refining Stupid
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Global refining capacity crisis, not crude availability, is the binding constraint with ~5 million barrels/day offline due to Iranian bombing and Russian drone strikes.
- US refineries running at 97% capacity and exporting record 1.9M barrels/day diesel; U.S. stands as last major fuel supplier globally.
- Trump's $2.50 gasoline promise unrealistic given refinery constraints; problem is crack spreads (refined product margins) not Hormuz strait access.
Midweek Macro Note: The Energy Situation This Week, NFP Preview - July, Asia Update Part 8
MacroEdge Research
- MacroEdge launching new Oil & Gas Research division to provide comprehensive coverage of global energy markets and inventory dynamics.
- July marked first time in decades that oil inventory situation has reached critical inflection point, with headline-driven market manipulation losing effectiveness.
- Upcoming months require patience as inventory reality catches up to markets amid continued dynamic conditions and government interventions worldwide.
Coal Gangue Recycling in China
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Coal gangue recycling in Shanxi Province demonstrates how waste management innovation creates system-wide thermodynamic and economic gains through circular material cycles.
- Converting mining waste into high-value construction materials exemplifies negentropic processes that reduce disorder and improve overall resource efficiency.
- China's scaling experiments in coal gangue recycling offer replicable models for Global South nations facing acute resource constraints and legacy waste challenges.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Core Natural Resources beat EPS estimates significantly due to $88 million insurance recovery, lower operating costs, and aggressive share repurchases.
- Revenue guidance proven accurate at $1.14 billion, but profitability substantially exceeded forecasts with adjusted EPS of $2.51 versus $1.01 estimate.
- Met coal operator demonstrates operational efficiency improvements and capital-return discipline driving 7%+ pre-market stock gain.
Trading · 6
Gold is on the Move
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Gold broke out of multi-week consolidation despite elevated yields and firm dollar, signaling potential trend shift.
- Author holds GDX (gold miners) long-term and uses UGL (direct gold) as a shorter-term trade to fund GDX positions.
- Key resistance levels established; investors need to distinguish constructive dips for entry from meaningful trade invalidation signals.
Trading Post August 7, 2026
Michael Burry
- Added to Freddie Mac (FMCC) at $5.43 based on prior analysis of GSE capital accumulation and IPO timing.
- GSEs building double-digit book value growth regardless of IPO delays, reducing financial pressure to rush public offering.
- Long-term investors should view potential sentiment-driven selloffs as opportunities given strengthening fundamentals.
Market Analysis and Trades for 8/7
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- NQ futures saw continued weakness overnight following a 30,069 failure, with 29,269-29,369 levels as targets.
- Gap-down opening of 5-minutes tagged the 29,269 target, prompting a cover response and formation of a 3-day balance.
- Technical analysis references previous weekly analysis for SPY and QQQ to contextualize current trading signals.
Trading Post 8/6/2026 Two Shorts, 3 Earnings Reports with 1 Add & 2 Holds
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry shorted Oracle (ORCL) at $144.63 and Nebius (NBIS) at $211.77 based on concerning off-balance sheet liabilities including 11-year uncommenced leases at 18x sales.
- Multiple companies are gorging on off-balance sheet obligations, backward-looking purchase commitments, and unfunded future growth projections that mask true financial stress.
- Earnings reports from Flutter, Mercado Libre, Fiserv, and Zoetis were analyzed with position adjustments made; put options were avoided due to extreme implied volatility above 100%.
You’re Too Good at Rescuing Yourself So You Keep Creating Problems to Solve
Sara
- Some traders self-sabotage stability by recreating crises because they perform best under pressure and urgency, reverting to stress-inducing behaviors.
- The pattern is self-reinforcing: successful recoveries convince the brain the crisis-driven process works, eliminating motivation to build sustainable habits.
- Sustained performance requires tolerance for repetition and stability without the dopamine hit of dramatic comebacks, a fundamentally different psychological challenge than recovery.
The Mispriced Assets Super Bowl
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Multiple portfolio positions reporting earnings simultaneously creates concentrated volatility risk, with Groupon comprising 18% of the model portfolio and >50% of net worth.
- Timing gaps between earnings releases and earnings calls create significant arbitrage opportunities between the printed numbers and management commentary.
- High-concentration positions amplify both upside and downside exposure during earnings events.