★ Priority · 17
Market Update & Signals 10/1/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Tech stocks led market strength in Q3 and September despite seasonal weakness, with strong momentum continuing into October.
- Bond yields are rising sharply (10-year at 5.33%, highest since 2002), signaling tightening financial conditions globally.
- Author plans tactical adjustments and new trades as signals fire, emphasizing disciplined trend-following.
Falsely Accused of Being in the ‘Cornell 7.’ Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Social media mobs wrongly accuse innocent people through viral misinformation and mistaken identity, destroying lives and moving on without accountability.
- Case study of Matthew Ingalls wrongly sued in Cornell 7 case due to name confusion demonstrates dangers of social media justice.
- Traditional legal concepts like 'innocent until proven guilty' have eroded in age of instant social media condemnation.
(Idea) Scorpio Tankers - Testing The Bull Case From A Diesel Export Ban
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- A US diesel export ban would eliminate certain short-haul Atlantic Basin voyages but might incentivize longer-distance tanker routes from Asian refineries to Europe and Latin America.
- Scorpio Tankers' profitability hinges on whether longer replacement voyages generate enough demand to offset lost US export cargoes; near-term outlook is negative due to certainty of lost cargoes versus uncertainty of replacements.
- US distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels per day in mid-September, with roughly three-quarters of the EIA category shipped internationally, making the export base substantial.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- The October 2026 diesel (HOV6) contract experienced an unexplained 11% rip before expiration with only 1,600 lots of open interest trading 2,000 lots, indicating someone was caught short.
- This extreme price movement mirrors a similar 2022 event in natural gas where the tell appeared only after the contract had already rolled and open interest had collapsed.
- The incident highlights hidden leverage and positioning risk in energy futures markets during contract expiry windows.
Douglas Murray: Israel Is Winning
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- FlyDubai flight hijacking attempt thwarted by passengers including Israeli passenger Yaniv Hayoun who stormed cockpit to stop co-pilot terrorist.
- Douglas Murray argues Israel has overmatched enemies repeatedly; past three years represent triumph despite ongoing threats and attacks.
- Attempted hijacking recalls 1970s plane hijackings and Flight 93; reflects broader conflict between Israel/West and Islamic radicals described as winnable war.
‘I Ran Toward the Cockpit’: An Exclusive Interview with the Israeli Dad Who Stopped a Hijacking
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Co-pilot stabbed captain with knife and seized control of flydubai flight FZ1073, plunging aircraft 17,000+ feet toward Saudi Arabia.
- Passenger Yaniv Hayoun, a maintenance worker with no security background, led group storming the cockpit to overpower the attacker.
- All 180 passengers and crew safely landed in Saudi Arabia and returned to Tel Aviv by 6:34 p.m., with Hayoun motivated by protecting his wife and children.
Negative Convexity is Oddly Invisible
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Negative convexity in mortgage-backed securities creates a feedback loop where rising rates force duration hedging that pushes yields higher.
- MBS investors short longer-dated Treasuries to hedge duration extension, amplifying bond market volatility at quarter-end.
- Mortgage refinance applications are collapsing as homeowners remain locked in at lower rates, reducing prepayment speeds.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- MXN-JPY carry trade has blown lower and is now below March lows, showing signs of potential rolling crackup.
- AUD-JPY high-beta EM carry is blowing out while G10 carry holds steady, signaling unstable equilibrium.
- Quarter-end and month-end trading creates volatile conditions requiring careful position management.
Election Special - Brazil Edition
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Brazil's ETF (EWZ) rallied 50% from 2024 lows to 2026 highs on recovery, currency debasement, and rate beneficiary themes.
- Brazilian real has lost one-third of value since 2019 while 10-year yields at 14% offer highest real yields in EM.
- Upcoming elections (Oct 4 round 1, Oct 25 round 2) present visible catalyst as pension fund equity allocation hits record lows of 5-8%.
How Oct meeting becomes live
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- OIS curve prices ~20% probability of BoJ rate hike at October meeting despite central bank's preference for December.
- September inflation data and Q3 tankan survey will influence Board growth and inflation forecasts for decision.
- Global central bank tightening cycle (Fed and ECB) is most critical factor for forcing BoJ into October action.
Market Update & Signals 9/30/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- September closes with patience and discipline keeping investors out of trouble as October approaches with multiple catalysts.
- Utilities posted strongest sector gains (1.2%) with cleanest reaction at support and largest up-volume spike since 2025 bottom.
- Micron earnings after close could set tone for tech/semis, with earnings season providing potential fuel for SPY/QQQ moves.
Has Trump Betrayed MAHA? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement shows signs of corporate takeover with RFK Jr. rubbing elbows with business elite at summit.
- EPA head Lee Zeldin identifies divide within MAHA between serious reformers and minor influencers seeking policy changes.
- Includes reporting on Trump's legal issues, antisemitism concerns, and Iran timeline from The Free Press.
The ‘Cornell 7’ Have Not Been Proven Guilty
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Seven Cornell University students have faced accusations in a sexual encounter case but have not been proven guilty.
- The incident reflects broader cultural tensions around sexual conduct, consent, and institutional responses on college campuses.
- High-profile cases involving murky circumstances become focal points for larger debates about relationships and societal values.
Paging All Women
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author critiques the brief window of female representation gains in arts and media during 2010s being reversed.
- Argues contemporary magazine cover design lacks artistic direction, styling, and creative vision.
- Contends misogyny persists in plain sight despite prior social progress on women's visibility.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Quarter-end positioning may produce bullish headlines to dress up tape performance.
- China's property market stabilization policies and stimulus measures failed to move markets, suggesting inadequate scope.
- OpenAI delayed its latest model release due to safety concerns while Anthropic's leaked S-1 warns of potential existential risks.
- Anthropic plans $518 billion in capex over coming years, signaling major AI infrastructure buildout.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Oura (wearable/smart ring maker) postponed its $2.0-2.2 billion IPO despite being 4x oversubscribed just days prior.
- IPO postponement signals deteriorating equity capital markets conditions despite strong retail demand.
- Market conditions are constraining ECM (equity capital markets) activity despite healthy order books.
- Broader equity issuance environment remains challenged despite recent strength in certain sectors.
(WOMM) It’s Now Or Never For U.S. Oil Production
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- U.S. oil production historically responds to price changes with roughly 6-month lag (4 months for rigs, 2 months for production).
- Current oil price environment ($90-100) should trigger production response between September and December 2026, and we're at the beginning of that window.
- Shale drilling response to this year's price increase has been modest compared to 2014 and 2016 episodes, suggesting possible geological constraints.
- If $90-100 oil fails to produce meaningful additional U.S. supply, the longer-term oil market structure could shift significantly.
Macro · 16
The deflation Wolfman is the endgame of this manic market cycle!
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- Global sovereign debt crisis at 3.5% of GDP combined with Fed tightening and rising yields (10-year at 5.3%) creates deflation risk.
- Property markets and REITs pricing in deflation; GCC economies vulnerable as dollar peg forces regional central banks to tighten.
- AI capex debt surge of $400 billion may trigger credit market crisis in 2027 when speed breakers fail.
The BoJ Is in No Hurry for the Next Hike
Japan Macro Advisors
- Bank of Japan executives have turned cautious and show no urgency to hike rates before end of 2026; next hike likely March 2027.
- Swing vote members Masu and Koeda confirm BoJ is not falling behind the curve and should not rush rate increases despite market pricing.
- Market still prices 1.02 hikes by December 2026 despite BoJ's cautious stance, showing potential mispricing of rate expectations.
The AI Freight Train’s Growing Debt Bill
Hypernormal Times
- AI-linked debt now comprises 6.3% of the US investment-grade bond market, far exceeding the 29-year average of 2.6% for any single sector.
- Market concentration is extreme: Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Apple drove the S&P 500 up 2% while broader measures like the Russell 2000 fell 7.5% and equal-weighted S&P 500 declined 2.3%.
- Treasury yields jumped nearly 0.9 percentage points in Q3 (largest quarterly move since 1994) while global bonds posted their worst quarter since end-2024, signaling potential volatility if AI growth slows.
Brakes, Not Speed: David Dredge on a Year of Broken Promises
Hypernormal Times
- Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan (3% deficit-to-GDP ratio, economic growth acceleration, and 3M additional barrels/day oil production) has failed on all fronts—DOGE collapsed, growth hasn't accelerated, and deficits have widened.
- Bessent has been forced into interventionist mode, coordinating with the Bank of Japan to sell euros and buy yen, effectively doing the Fed's job instead of allowing independent monetary policy.
- The core macro problem remains unsolved: ever-larger deficits feed sustained inflation, which feeds higher rates, which feed even larger deficits in a self-reinforcing cycle.
Macro Research Portfolio Strategy Update - 9/30
MacroEdge Research
- MacroEdge is expanding its oil and gas operations and beginning a search for a small North Texas operator, signaling transition to a new scale of activity.
- The publication distinguishes itself through a 50+ contributor network with real-world expertise outside Wall Street and academia, providing forecasting advantages in an increasingly opaque macro landscape.
- Q4 marks a moment for reflection and recalibration as the macro-sphere becomes more complex and difficult to forecast.
173 Million Bushels That Weren’t Ate
Nico from AiQ
- USDA cut the 2025 corn crop by 57 million bushels while simultaneously finding 2.095 billion bushels in storage bins, 177 million above trade expectations—indicating lower consumption, not just lower production.
- Stripping out the smaller crop reveals a 230 million bushel demand miss versus USDA's own prior estimates, the second-largest such miss in 30 years, following a 207 million miss in September 2025.
- Back-to-back record demand misses in 2025 and 2026 have only been paralleled in 2010-2011, suggesting a structural demand weakness rather than noise.
The Fourth Spring
Peruvian Bull
- Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, marking first hike since July 2023 under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Bitcoin rallied 42.8% from June 30 to September 29 despite Fed tightening, reaching $86,396 intramonth.
- Bitcoin on track for three straight green months, an achievement not seen since 2012.
What Kind of Returns Can We Expect in This Macro Regime?
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Research uses bottom-up signals across asset markets to estimate forward-looking cross-asset macro regimes incorporating fundamental and price-based information.
- Four macro regimes defined: rising growth/falling inflation favors equities, rising growth/rising inflation favors commodities, falling growth/falling inflation favors treasuries, stagflation favors TIPS.
- Current probabilities favor rising nominal growth but stagflationary odds are increasing, with implications for cross-sectional asset returns.
The Cap Is Gone
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's Supreme Court ruled foreign land ownership cap restrictions are constitutional and can be repealed by executive decree.
- Milei's December 2023 decree removing 15% foreign ownership cap on rural land is now in full force.
- Court did not rule on constitutionality of the decree itself, only on standing of the plaintiff challenging it.
- Reversal eliminates Cristina Kirchner's 2012 policy restricting foreign agricultural land purchases.
Interest Rates Just Hit a 2002 High. It Is Not the Debt That Should Scare You.
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.6% (2002 high) driven by growth and inflation expectations, not deficits.
- Real GDP growth of 2.2% masked by 8.5% nominal growth, indicating most gains are inflationary rather than activity-based.
- Consumer confidence fell to 2014 lows; AI capital spending is main prop supporting growth but appears unstable.
- Risk lies in higher rates pushing borrowers from investment-grade to junk, forcing selling into private credit and pensions.
FARTHER THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE, QUICKER THAN YOU FORECASTED
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Bond markets have been destroyed in recent months amid aggressive government fiscal policies and AI capital expenditure demands.
- Despite being a perennial bond bear, the author sees long bonds as preferable to short positions given current conditions.
- Skepticism remains on bond rally catalysts given government spending and AI CAPEX remain capital-hungry headwinds.
War Note: The Final SPR Tranche... For Now, A Look at the Cyclicals - Freight & Housing
MacroEdge Research
- Trump administration releasing final 40 million barrel Iran war tranche from SPR to address ongoing Middle East price pressures.
- Strait of Hormuz and Bab disruptions continue to create sizable global price pressures across cyclical sectors.
- SPR releases expected to climb back to 3-6 million barrels per day as market patience through October strategy materializes.
Debt and financialization
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Financialization involves creating financial claims on other financial claims, which is widely misunderstood even among experts.
- Real assets like factories generate actual economic income, while financial assets are merely legal claims on that income or ownership.
- Debt and equity represent two distinct forms of financial claims with different risk and return profiles.
Reductio ad aurum
Gold and geopolitics
- Uses historical story of Hippasus and mathematical irrationality as metaphor for currency and economic systems.
- References shift in monetary policy involving foreign treasurers and government economic decisions.
- Explores concept of reducing complex systems to fundamental mathematical principles.
Consilience of Curves
Campbell
- Three interconnected mega-trends—AI acceleration, death of globalism, and Western reindustrialization—are reshaping power dynamics globally.
- Portfolio being rebuilt from scratch after forced liquidation period due to compliance and ethics regulations.
- AI advancement is the central driver linking technology disruption with geopolitical restructuring and industrial policy shifts.
Bipolar Bankers
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- JP Morgan sent conflicting signals: Argentina heading to investment grade, then pivoting to recession forecast.
- Argentines circumvent economic uncertainty by purchasing US tokens via banking apps with newly lifted restrictions.
- Gap between banking sector expectations and retail behavior will determine outcomes of 2027 election.
Politics · 14
TLP, Revisited: Life in America Feels Unsettling Right Now. Can Democrats Offer a Compelling Answer?
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Americans feel unsettled by decades of instability including financial crises, wars, pandemics, and rapid technological change.
- 63% of Americans believe AI is advancing too quickly, with most expecting job displacement from artificial intelligence.
- Democrats need to offer a compelling answer to address public anxiety about technology and economic security.
A Terrorist Tried To Hijack A Plane Flying From Dubai To Tel Aviv. The Passengers Subdued Him.
John Aziz
- FlyDubai pilot stabbed co-pilot and attempted to crash plane from Dubai to Tel Aviv; passengers subdued attacker and plane diverted to Saudi Arabia.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu called the stabbed pilot a 'hero'; Israeli Defense Minister characterized incident as jihadist terror attack.
- Co-pilot arrested and being questioned by Saudi authorities; stabbed pilot Capt Smit Machchhar hospitalized after aircraft safely landed.
THE STRATEGIC LESSONS OF THE IRAN WAR — AND WHAT THEY MEAN FOR PAKISTAN
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Professor Pape keynoted Pakistan's National Defence University on Iran War strategic lessons, addressing senior military and government leaders.
- Central argument: overwhelming US conventional military superiority fails to translate automatically into political leverage or control.
- Iran's asymmetric strategy exploits gap between military dominance and political outcomes by making continued US pressure sufficiently costly and dangerous.
The Third-Worlding of the West Accelerates
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Syria, Afghanistan, and Sudan account for large share of global refugees; most fleeing societies shaped by radical Islam and tribal warfare rather than secular democracies.
- Progressive rhetoric obscures broader reality: cultural and psychological conditioning from dysfunctional states doesn't vanish upon crossing borders.
- Massive influx of immigrants from regions with contempt for liberal norms poses vital question about Western cultural preservation and integration capacity.
Flight FZ1073: A Second 9/11 was Just Stopped
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Flydubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv with 180 passengers experienced attempted hijacking on September 30, 2026.
- Co-pilot repeatedly stabbed pilot and seized cockpit control, causing plane to plummet 17,000+ feet toward Saudi Arabia.
- Passengers and crew stormed cockpit, overpowered attacker, and successfully landed in Saudi Arabia with all 180 people safe.
Constitutional Rights Cannot Depend on Government Favor
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Two federal courts ruled that government cannot use public access authority to reward allies and punish enemies.
- Capitol prayer case and CNN press access case both center on government's legitimate regulatory powers vs. discriminatory application.
- Government institutions may regulate public spaces but cannot base access decisions on partisan viewpoints or coverage.
- Rulings protect both religious expression and press freedom from viewpoint-based discrimination.
Why Is Israel So Bad at Genocide?
Kaizen Asiedu
- Genocide has a specific legal definition distinct from war crimes, civilian casualties, or disproportionate harm.
- Israel's actions including vaccine pauses, evacuation warnings, and food allowances contradict genocide intent narrative.
- Military targeting Hamas differs from intent to destroy Palestinian people as a group.
- Conflation of devastating conflict with genocide cheapens the specific charge and obscures actual intentions.
He Wanted a 9/11. He Got a Plane Full of Israelis
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- An Omani co-pilot attempted to hijack a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight on September 30, 2026, attacking the captain with a knife.
- Israeli passengers aboard the aircraft responded by rushing the cockpit despite the threat of terrorism.
- The incident marked the first attempted airplane hijacking targeting Israel in over 20 years.
Disaster Averted at 34,000 Feet
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- FlydubaiBoeing 737 co-pilot apparently hijacked aircraft over Saudi Arabia, dropping 17,000 feet before settling at 15,000 feet.
- Plane broadcast hijacking code (7500) triggering Israeli military response with fighter jets and Netanyahu consultations.
- All 174 passengers survived including 27 children and many Israelis; bravery of passengers and crew averted potential disaster.
Restoring the status quo in Hormuz is not a victory
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- U.S. Navy partially reopened Strait of Hormuz through military operation protecting 40 ships, but this merely restored pre-war status quo.
- Before conflict, ships transited Hormuz without needing American military protection; spending billions to regain existing conditions represents lowered expectations.
- Iran damaged but regime survived leadership loss and remains intact; nuclear dispute unresolved and strategic gains questionable.
They’re Not Palestinian. But For Them, Only A One State Solution Is Acceptable.
John Aziz
- A Filipino social media user rejected the Philippine government's two-state solution position on Israel-Palestine, demanding instead a one-state solution with no Israel.
- Those calling for the elimination of Israel from outside the region face no personal consequences for advocating such positions.
- Palestinians and their neighbors living with the actual costs of conflict may have different perspectives than foreign activists promoting absolutist positions.
Brotherhood of the Traveling Caliphate 🪂 🤸♀️ Mission ImPRossible
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Five British nationals allegedly launched a terrorist attack on RAF Fairford; suspects were arrested and released as investigation continues.
- Unclear whether attackers were foreign terrorist agents (potentially IRGC), domestic terrorists, or common criminals.
- Discussion covers foiled attack and effectiveness of Israeli PR messaging during Gaza conflict.
Britain’s upside-down approach to Islamism, Iran, and Israel is putting us all in danger
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Five men arrested for suspected plot to bomb UK military base were released on bail despite Iran specifically naming the facility as a target.
- MI5 and UK security officials have warned of Iranian threats since 2022, identifying dozens of credible plots to kill or kidnap UK-based individuals.
- Britain's immigration and security policies are contradictory and inadequate, creating dangerous gaps in counter-extremism defenses.
Ridiculing Trump Voters Is (Still) Unproductive
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Rural-urban divide stems from deindustrialization and agricultural consolidation that destroyed factory towns and farming communities.
- Trump converted rural despair into electoral success, and progressives risk deepening divisions by disparaging rural areas.
- Flipping just 3% of rural voters could reshape the political map; understanding grievances and rebuilding trust is more productive than mockery.
Markets · 13
Wake Me Up When September Ends
Andrew Sarna
- S&P 500 down less than 1% in September but Russell 2000 fell over 5%, revealing significant weakness beneath large-cap gains.
- Rising Treasury yields (breaching 7% for US mortgage rates) are pressuring housing and remain elevated despite recent oil price declines.
- Canadian housing market has become increasingly institutionalized; consumer stress metrics not yet at extreme levels despite weakness.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly higher tracking Micron premarket; European markets lower with banks under pressure as tech out-lobbies traditional companies.
- Asian markets rallied (Japan +68bp, China +30bp) while Japanese companies exit China in record numbers.
- Bond selloff deepens with high yields becoming the new normal; labor market strength supports risk assets despite tighter financial conditions.
You Pick Stocks Worse Than a Baby
Garrett Baldwin
- New auto-enrollment Trump accounts for US-born children starting October 1 will create permanent bid to equity markets with massive passive inflows.
- Most active stock pickers (4 out of 5) are expected to underperform a passive baby account, illustrating dominance of passive index flows.
- Market dynamics have become price-agnostic due to forced enrollment and free government contributions driving automatic equity allocation.
Our Crude Steel Tracker got a tune-up
The Coal Trader
- Steel production tracker enhanced with data through August 2026 and improved precision for European figures.
- Germany and Italy data upgraded from rounded to exact monthly figures with blast furnace/EAF splits.
- New validation process catches data errors before publication by cross-checking monthly, year-on-year, and YTD figures.
- Tool now automatically incorporates official annual revisions to reflect final rather than preliminary numbers.
The Repo Dark Spot: Part II
Conks
- U.S. regulatory push to force trillions in derivatives trades into centrally cleared markets is creating upward pressure on repo rates.
- SOFR and short-end rates face emerging pressure from this structural shift in market infrastructure.
- The impact of forced clearing on market dynamics remains uncertain and growing more complex.
Bond Voyage
AP Research
- Bond yields at 5%+ levels create attractive asymmetric payoff with 12.7% upside from 100bp yield drop versus 1.6% downside from yield rise.
- Convexity, carry, rolldown, and pull-to-par mechanics are key drivers of bond returns at current levels, not just price appreciation.
- Long-duration bonds offer compelling entry point for investors after years of poor performance during rising-rate environment.
Acquiring an FCF-generating Dry Bulk Fleet for 0.21 Cents on a Dollar
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Shipping ETF (BOAT) outperforming major themes like Brazil and copper, with crude tankers leading due to volatile day rates.
- Late-cycle indicators evident: 5-year-old ships now command higher prices than brand-new vessels, and 15-year-old VLCCs up 132% YoY.
- Dry bulk, small LPGs, and chemical tankers remain undervalued outside hot crude tanker niche; Oslo Exchange offers shipping opportunities at single-digit P/NAV.
The Market Doesn’t Need a Rescue
Global Macro Method
- Higher yields reduce present value of future profits, but contest depends on whether earnings keep growing or expectations adjust.
- Market leadership narrowing and policy hurdle heavier, but not uniform retreat into defensives.
- Real opportunity lies in earnings surviving the rates shock rather than denying that shock matters.
Midterms: A Series, Part 2
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Historical pattern shows markets typically improve after midterms as uncertainty resolves and sentiment adjusts regardless of outcome.
- Markets dislike uncertainty more than particular outcomes; volatility driven by unknown results rather than results themselves.
- Key question for remainder of POTUS 47 term: will uncertainty rise or fall during his unrestrained final two years?
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly higher as yields fade while awaiting Micron earnings; bond market rebounds after recent sell-off.
- Asian markets mixed with Japan +1.8%, China stimulus push underperforming expectations.
- Key data watch includes ADP, PCE, GDP revision, and Chicago PMI with telecom sector showing competitive turf wars.
Quant Corner
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Quant Corner provides updated systematic trading signals based on proprietary models and technical indicators.
- Previous recommendation on USDCAD shorts has converged to model fair value; profits were taken at 1.42 versus prior 1.39 spot.
- Current edition reviews latest model dislocations to identify best trading opportunities across markets.
S/U Chart Crimes & Z-Z Corn
Nico from AiQ
- Stocks-to-use scatter charts are frequently misused and abused in commodity analysis, producing misleading price signals.
- Generic ending-stocks regression analysis misses the real question of what happens when buyers must draw from limited export-position stocks.
- Corn curve offers good value on recent setback; prices could fall further if USDA raises stock estimates in upcoming report.
- Understanding chart construction methodology is critical to avoiding poor commodity trading decisions.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets trading flat with focus on Iran negotiations and persistent high yield levels.
- Historical perspective on slavery and societal wrongs should acknowledge global context rather than singularizing US culpability.
- America's progress toward a color-blind society with high approval for interracial relationships deserves recognition alongside honest historical reckoning.
AI · 12
Robinhood Agents is live, and it earns from your trades, not the AI 🤖📈; Meta’s Muse now goes head to head with C…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Robinhood launched AI trading agents earning from customer trades rather than the AI itself, with 150,000+ agentic accounts opened immediately.
- Meta's Muse for Small Business hits 5M US downloads in 3 weeks and now competes directly with Anthropic's Claude for SMB market.
- Proprietary AI agent data marketplace restricts customers to Robinhood's agents, pulling users away from open-source Claude and ChatGPT alternatives.
Adding It Up: How to Read an AI Headline
Cape Fear Advisors
- Large AI announcements often present different types of financial commitments (ceilings, rates, conditional commitments, totals) that can be misleadingly added together.
- Akamai's $11.6B multi-year agreement with Anthropic over seven years plus up to $9B additional represents $20B total potential commitment with unclear timing.
- SEC filings provide necessary detail missing from press releases, though answers may arrive late, be redacted, or require document excavation.
Can companies like OpenAI keep getting away with what they are doing? An interview with Fordham law professor Zeph…
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Legal expert argues existing laws can address AI company misconduct; law enforcement doesn't require complete evidence before investigating.
- OpenAI and similar companies face potential violations in areas like copyright infringement, data privacy, and product safety.
- Current regulatory gap stems from lack of enforcement action rather than insufficient legal frameworks.
- Interview explores how tech legislation drafted previously could apply to current AI company practices.
Does your work cost less on Opus 5.5 now that its tokens are 20% cheaper? My 3-prompt guide shows which jobs do be…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Claude Opus 5.5 reduces token costs by 20%, lowering computational costs for various tasks and improving cost-effectiveness of AI work.
- Opus 5.5 demonstrates superior ergonomics—easier directability, fewer repeated explanations, improved writing steerability, and extraordinary visual capabilities.
- Model ergonomics (fit between system and user) deserves attention as key factor enabling users to tackle more ambitious tasks through better direction, understanding, and iteration.
Higher Ed’s Existential Crisis
Prof G Research Team
- Over 800 U.S. degree-granting institutions closed since 2013, with projections of 80 more closures by 2029.
- Education Department monitoring ~400 schools for financial troubles and ~20 on severe track; over 25% of private colleges at risk of closing in 10 years.
- College crisis driven by fundamental economics and demographics, not AI—fewer 18-year-olds and structural financial pressures.
The Agentic Bank Run is coming for banking’s cheapest money 🤖🏦; Anthropic’s IPO prospectus asks public investors…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Apollo warns of 'agentic bank run' as AI agents begin moving money, threatening bank profits before deposits with Meta Muse.
- Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus shows $2T valuation driven by $518B in compute commitments, with $42B loss mostly non-cash accounting.
- Nearly half of Anthropic's sales run through cloud giants Amazon and Google that also own stakes and compete with Anthropic.
Super Intelligence & Credit Default Swaps
Hypernormal Times
- Trump announces voluntary AI safety standards with major CEOs and directs agencies to call AI 'super intelligence' instead.
- OpenAI refuses to release GPT-6.1 Astra due to failed safety standards while unveiling always-on AI agent and $500/month tier.
- Credit markets buying insurance as major tech IPOs (Anthropic, Oura, SB Energy) face delays amid trillion-dollar valuations.
Today’s Big News from Anthropic Wasn’t The S-1... It Was a LinkedIn Job Post...
Garrett Baldwin
- Anthropic's draft IPO prospectus revealed $4.6B in 2025 revenue with 12x growth but $8.06B in operating losses.
- A LinkedIn job posting at Anthropic may reveal more about the company's future direction than the publicized IPO draft.
- The company's cash position and hiring patterns suggest strategic expansion plans beyond what recent financial disclosures indicate.
Hot take on a weak White House Accord on “Super Intelligence”
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- The White House Accord on super intelligence amounts to companies agreeing not to be regulated and not involving public input.
- The accord's definition of 'independent' oversight appears to rely on subcontractors chosen by the signatory companies themselves.
- Recent commitments to AI pacing and safety have reportedly been abandoned by major AI leaders including Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk.
BREAKING: OpenAI was warned, months before the Hugging Face incident
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI received months of prior warning before Hugging Face incident but proceeded despite warnings.
- Author calls for management replacement and board accountability for allowing problematic decisions.
- Lawsuit liability and precedent comparable to Ford Pinto scandal; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's recent trust-building statements now undercut.
An Israeli Team Built AI That Asks What a Dermatologist Asks
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israeli team developed DermaDetect AI that mimics dermatologist diagnostic approach by asking contextual questions about rash symptoms.
- Platform tested on 12,000+ health plan members and validated by French university hospital on real patients.
- Software combines patient photo with answers to diagnostic questions to provide doctors with prioritized list of likely conditions.
The Checker Nobody Checked (120)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Clearwatch Research tested whether Sonnet 5.5 at high effort self-checked its work more than GPT-6 Sol at medium effort, finding statistical significance (p=0.003).
- A subsequent adjudication note flagged the grading result as 'WRONG,' revealing potential flaws in the evaluation methodology.
- Small fleet home tests can produce misleading statistical signals when adjudication processes are compromised or incomplete.
- Rigorous quality control in AI benchmarking is essential; single-line corrections can invalidate apparently significant findings.
Culture · 10
Captain Obvious
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Success-focused personalities like Mel Robbins often achieve massive audiences by repackaging obvious truths (e.g., exercise is healthy) in compelling, authoritative ways rather than offering novel insights.
- Pop psychology and self-help genres rely on borrowed wisdom from world religions and twelve-step programs, reframed for contemporary audiences like middle-aged control-conscious women.
- The greatest speakers and writers succeed not by revealing secret knowledge but by articulating universal truths in a manner that resonates emotionally and culturally with their target audience.
17 Observations on Chivalry
Ted Gioia
- Author applies pressure-testing methodology to opinions, avoiding hot takes in favor of cold, reasoned analysis that withstands scrutiny.
- Biological reality suggests women's reproductive role is more critical to species propagation than traditional male-centered perspectives acknowledge.
- Chivalry is presented as behavioral code based on proper conduct rather than crowd-pleasing, with observations derived from principled analysis.
Hotel du Cap Has Rules for the Influencer Photo Shoot Now
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc on French Riviera has implemented increasingly specific rules governing influencer photo shoots on property.
- Historic hotel dating to 1870 earned mythology in 1920s when Sara and Gerald Murphy drew Fitzgerald, Hemingway, and Picasso, becoming immortalized in literature.
- Hotel responding to negative externalities of Instagram culture including outfit changes, non-guest photo shoots, and irritated regular guests disrupted by influencer activity.
Australia Sent Machine Guns Against the Birds and Set a Quota for the Cats (121)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Historical Australian wildlife management efforts (machine guns against birds, quotas for cats) provide context for ecological intervention paradoxes.
- Narrative explores the satirical 'birds aren't real' movement and reframes understanding of surveillance and observation.
- Part one sets up broader AI security discipline theme with entertainment detours before revealing AI connection in part two.
UPDATE: The White Guilt Cage
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- The author's essay on white guilt has been picked up by the Daily Wire for broader publication.
- A new documentary film titled 'White Guilt' traces how white guilt emerged from the civil rights era and shaped institutions and politics.
- The essays serve as companion pieces to Shelby Steele's 2006 book and apply those frameworks to contemporary events from classrooms to October 7th.
To live healthier for longer, train your weaknesses
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- The author ditched wearable fitness trackers in favor of understanding his body intuitively rather than obsessing over metrics.
- Over-reliance on health data from devices like Apple Watch can distract from genuine self-awareness and understanding actual fitness needs.
- Training weaknesses and gaps in fitness is more important for long-term health than chasing daily calorie burn targets.
Healthy Pumpkin Spice Cookie Dough
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe for healthy pumpkin spice cookie dough using chickpeas, nut butter, and optional protein powder.
- Includes optional butterscotch shell topping and serves four portions at 395 calories each.
- Post provides detailed ingredient list and step-by-step blending and freezing instructions.
Your lower belly isn't stubborn. Its fat cells have more brakes than accelerators, and someone counted them.
Parent Fit Club
- Fat cells have beta receptors (accelerators) and alpha-2 receptors (brakes) controlling fat release; adrenaline affects both.
- Ratio of brake to accelerator receptors varies by body location, explaining why fat loss occurs in predetermined order.
- Lower belly fat is stubborn due to higher concentration of alpha-2 brakes in subcutaneous cells; biology explains why effort cannot rearrange fat loss order.
Give Your Children Shakespeare
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ken Ludwig argues Shakespeare and King James Bible are twin bedrocks of Western civilization and creative inspiration.
- Children's brains are naturally disposed to memorization; parents can direct this capacity toward classic literature rather than pop culture.
- Memorization of Shakespeare requires deep understanding of every word and slow, deliberate study to unlock creative influence.
Never be afraid to describe reality
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Modern discourse penalizes factual descriptions of reality, with people often reacting emotionally to objective truths rather than engaging with evidence.
- Willingness to independently investigate ideas and check sources distinguishes rational inquiry from appeal-to-authority arguments.
- Many taboo topics exist not because they're false but because there's no political or social leverage gained from discussing them openly.