★ Priority · 15
Death by Telehealth. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A 26-year-old dental student died in an ICU where no physician examined him bedside during a four-hour period before cardiac arrest, raising safety concerns about tele-ICU models.
- Rise of remote critical care monitoring from command centers hundreds of miles away has fundamentally transformed how patients receive ICU treatment.
- Investigation into this death reveals a significant healthcare transformation with both architectural advocates and serious critics questioning remote monitoring for critically ill patients.
Why the Left Hates the Medicine That Made Me a Mom
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Restorative reproductive medicine, pioneered as a Catholic alternative to IVF, has been mischaracterized by left-leaning outlets as conservative quackery despite helping women outside the Catholic community.
- Political polarization around fertility treatments risks deterring people from seeking potentially effective alternatives by framing medical options through ideological rather than health lenses.
- The New York Times characterized restorative reproductive medicine as giving false hope, yet real patient outcomes demonstrate efficacy for women who lack IVF options or tolerance.
Slutmaxxing
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Gen Z influencer Clavicular (Braden Peters) brought misogynistic content to Tel Aviv after being sponsored a trip, promoting degradation of women similar to Andrew Tate.
- Peters associates with far-right figures including neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes and has filmed himself singing antisemitic content.
- The post critiques influencer culture that elevates individuals promoting harmful ideologies to young audiences without accountability.
MEMORY AND WAFER UPDATE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) are whipsawed by leveraged ETFs like 3x bullish KORU US, creating artificial volatility disconnected from fundamental DRAM price strength.
- Wafer makers (GlobalWafers up 300% since April, Sumco, Siltronics) benefit from memory makers needing to expand production, creating hidden capex demand for wafer supply.
- Wafer stocks lack leveraged ETF presence, making them better holds than volatile memory stocks, with Siltronics and Sumco trading at significant discounts to GlobalWafers.
I Have Started Buying Protection
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- S&P 500 near highs with VIX in teens masks violent underlying dispersion where individual stocks and factors undergo corrections that would normally accompany ugly index moves.
- Historic low implied correlation suggests options market is pricing in offsetting trades continuing, but risks a sudden shift if divergent trades begin moving together.
- Summer liquidity combined with high leverage, ETF flows, and systematic sellers could turn ordinary 1-2% moves into a 5-10% air pocket, prompting writer to buy protective options.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Core CPI fell 0% vs 0.2% expected, marking the first inflation decline since 2020.
- Fed officials who were hawkish earlier now appear vindicated as inflation trends improve and credibility is restored.
- Watch weak dollar trades (Brazil, platinum, oil) to see if they maintain strength despite oil price spikes.
- Brazil elections show Lula and Bolsonaro now neck-and-neck in polling, creating uncertainty in currency markets.
Time for Japan to adopt a Strong Yen policy
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- The US strong dollar policy originated in G7 discourse of the early 1990s to address trade imbalances.
- Treasury Secretary Rubin's 1995 statement that 'a strong dollar is in our national interest' defined policy for the next three years.
- Japan should adopt a similar strong yen policy to address its own economic imbalances and capital flows.
- Currency policy has historically been used as a strategic tool rather than solely as a market outcome.
"Aya-Toll" vs "Trump-Toll"
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trump and Iran have restarted hostilities, with Trump proposing a 20% toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran has proposed a competing 1% toll, creating a stark contrast in economic approaches to controlling the waterway.
- The author humorously suggests ships might prefer Iran's lower toll, creating a perverse incentive structure if both tolls coexist.
Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Back. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump has ordered reinstatement of a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and proposed a 20% toll on cargo passing through.
- The U.S. has conducted multiple consecutive nights of strikes on Iran to degrade their ability to attack shipping in the strait.
- Recent hostilities include Iran striking UAE tankers, escalating an on-again, off-again conflict back into active military operations.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- KOSPI formed a hammer at tactical support after SK Hynix's record drop, setting up potential bounce opportunities in semiconductor stocks.
- SOX and memory chip stocks like MU made higher lows at the 50-day moving average, mirroring historical 1995/1997/2000 playbook that preceded 1-2 relief bounces.
- Earnings season beginning presents tactical opportunities in semiconductor sector after recent weakness.
My Grandfather, the Secret War Hero
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Author recounts father's 1997 pilgrimage to Prague to find grave of his father Milan Janota, whom he never knew.
- Cold War separation: Communist takeover in 1948 prevented Milan's emigration while his ex-wife and son escaped to Australia in 1951.
- Remarkable twist of fate reunites family when cemetery caretaker encounters relative decades later, leading to discovery of Milan's legacy.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Total crude draw of 6.1 million barrels for July 10 week with SPR release slowing to 3 million barrels.
- EIA expected to report higher crude storage draw than HFI estimate; API bearish relative to EIA.
- SPR release rate hitting 300 million barrel floor; EIA owes market over 10 million barrels in reporting adjustment.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SOXX down 3% with SK Hynix falling 16%, while Brent crude up 3% amid geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Author introduces 'Meme-rithmic Scale' framework to track meme bottoms and meme tops forming across asset classes.
- Market momentum factors have declined significantly despite broad index strength, indicating underlying weakness beneath surface-level rallies.
A Violent Market Pretending to Be Calm
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- SPX reached 7,575, approaching the 7,700 July target set two weeks prior, but momentum factors and breadth have deteriorated significantly.
- Mag7 declined ~15%, mainstream momentum ETF fell 11%, and semiconductor leadership (SOX) cooled from 80% above 200-day MA to 46%.
- Despite index strength, underlying market weakness suggests caution as price approaches technical target without confirming breadth.
The Meme-rithmic Scale™
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- BABA 'Burry Wood Meme Bottom' triggered at $93 when Burry and Wood both sold; now at $113 with 3x gains on free calls.
- SOXX 'SK Hynix Meme Top' at $600 level considered key risk-off indicator; Crude 'Economist Meme Bottom' triggered at $72 Brent, now $78.
- Framework tracks recurring patterns where consensus capitulations and inflection points create repeatable trading signals across asset classes.
Politics · 14
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- AI is positioned as the most important economic lever for creating equality and enabling entrepreneurship outside conventional career paths.
- Immigrant-founded companies or their successors generated 43% of Fortune 500 revenue in 2024, demonstrating economic benefits of legal immigration.
- Commentary argues that supporting illegal immigration is undemocratic when voters did not authorize mass unauthorized entry, while acknowledging policy implementation challenges.
Why liberalism cannot defend Britain: Melanie Phillips on the West’s “suicide note”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Melanie Phillips discusses why she relocated from London to Jerusalem, citing concerns about Jewish identity and disloyalty accusations in Britain.
- Western cultural institutions have turned against Phillips, reflecting broader anxieties about support for Israel in liberal democracies.
- Phillips argues the crisis facing Jews is inseparable from a wider collapse of Western confidence and liberal institutional strength.
War Breaks Out In The Gulf Again
John Aziz
- The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended with repeated American strikes on Iranian targets, killing mariners and wounding others on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Recent escalations include US strikes on 80+ targets in Iran and Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and shipping vessels connected to the UAE.
- The critical question for market participants is what each side believes it can achieve militarily and whether there exists a realistic path from military pressure to political victory.
Iran So Far Away 🪂 🤸♀️ Midterms Near
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Military expert Andrew Fox and Shana Meyerson discuss whether America can achieve victory in renewed conflict with Iran and implications for regional stability.
- Key considerations include potential regime change outcomes, strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and rumors of Mossad involvement in grooming alternative Iranian leadership.
- Discussion examines whether Trump administration military strategy can succeed where previous efforts failed.
Office Hours: Professor Pape Answers Your Questions on Russia–Ukraine
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Russia unlikely to deploy tactical nuclear weapons despite conventional position weakening because battlefield gains would prove temporary and radioactive fallout risks backfire.
- Russian and Russian-speaking populations remain intermingled across Ukraine battlefield, making nuclear escalation strategically counterproductive.
- Professor Pape addresses deeper political and military forces shaping war's future rather than daily headline reactions.
A Conversation with John Sailer: How to Make Universities More Accountable
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Manhattan Institute proposes model legislation to strengthen university governing board oversight of curriculum and hiring decisions currently dominated by faculty and administrators.
- Public universities have failed responsibility to prepare students for careers and citizenship; governance checks needed to ensure accountability to public interest.
- Boards historically possessed mandate for real oversight but lost decision-making power over decades; proposed reforms restore board authority to conduct meaningful institutional review.
America Just Served the ICC the Only Warrant It Ever Earned
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- The ICC's warrants against Putin and Netanyahu demonstrate the court's power only extends to law-abiding nations, while autocrats face no real consequences.
- Putin received a red carpet welcome in Mongolia despite an ICC warrant, while Netanyahu must avoid allied airspace, showing the practical limits of international justice.
- The U.S. commitment to undermining the ICC reveals how institutions designed to constrain state behavior become weapons only effective against compliant governments.
Charlie Kirk's Death Created Just One Good Thing. And Candace Owens Destroyed It.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Author attended both Trump and Kamala rallies on same day in October 2024, finding Trump rally surprisingly positive and diverse versus fearful Kamala crowd.
- Reflects on Charlie Kirk's death and role as bridge-builder between right-wing media and mainstream discourse before Candace Owens allegedly damaged his legacy.
- Discusses author's own political journey from lifelong Democrat to Trump supporter in 2024.
The clock is ticking on Social Security: 2032 is closer than you think.
Bob Pisani
- Social Security OASI Trust Fund insolvency pushed up one quarter to Q4 2032; after depletion all beneficiaries face automatic 22% benefit cut.
- Program pays out $1.61 trillion annually but collects only $1.45 trillion, rapidly depleting decades of accumulated reserves.
- Central driver is demographic: fewer births plus aging population create structural imbalance between contributors and beneficiaries.
The UK Bans The IRGC As A Terrorist Organisation
John Aziz
- UK bans Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist organization under new National Security Act.
- IRGC designated alongside Russian GRU volunteer wing and IMCR following attacks on Jewish institutions and Persian media.
- Violation carries up to 14 years imprisonment for support, life imprisonment for sabotage on IRGC behalf.
The Christians Risking Prison to Keep the Faith Alive
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Pastor Ezra Jin released after months in prison following international pressure; founded Beijing's Zion Church which grew to 10,000 believers across 40 cities.
- Chinese Communist Party conducted coordinated raids in late 2025 on largest crackdown on Christianity in modern China after church refused state surveillance.
- Release does not change reality that countless Christians remain imprisoned for faith; underground Church witness should inspire Western resolve on religious liberty.
FAIR SCREENING - What Killed Michael Brown?
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Documentary screening of 'What Killed Michael Brown?' by Eli Steele on July 15 with Q&A session.
- Film explores the Michael Brown shooting in Ferguson and its broader impact on American racial discourse.
- Nine-year production documents how the incident catalyzed organizing around the 'race principle' nationwide.
Weekend Recap: Death, Disgrace, and Near-Death
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Senator Lindsey Graham passed away over the weekend; preliminary indicators suggest no foul play despite Iranian claims.
- Political left celebrated his death on social media, reflecting broader pattern of rejoicing over political opponents' misfortunes.
- Contrasts left-wing hypocrisy of mocking conservative deaths while defending terrorist deaths.
Iran update: the bombing expands. The deadlock holds.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US and Israel conducted over 300 strikes across three nights targeting Iran's air defense, missiles, drones, and coastal infrastructure.
- CENTCOM's stated objective is to dismantle Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, not broader regime change.
- Despite escalation in scope and intensity, the operational plan shows signs of staying limited to military infrastructure rather than expanding further.
Macro · 14
Statecraft & Cool Inflation
Andrew Sarna
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled administration policy aims to bring more industrial production back to America through tariffs and onshoring.
- June CPI came in at 3.5% (below 3.8% expectations) and core CPI fell to 2.6%, with month-over-month CPI declining 0.4%—the largest drop since May 2020.
- Cooler inflation was broad-based across goods, services, and energy, causing markets to slash July rate hike odds from 35% to near zero.
Cooler CPI Bought Time. It Didn’t End the Cycle.
Global Macro Method
- Softer CPI pushed immediate rate hike timelines further out but did not remove the need for future tightening, with markets still pricing ~45bp of Fed hikes into spring.
- Near-dated yields fell while deferred curves still embed significant tightening, signaling markets expect the disinflationary cycle to face headwinds.
- Dashboard signals (STIRs, real yields, equity breadth) do not align with a clean disinflationary glide path, suggesting the economy remains harder to slow than headlines suggest.
Let's Look At What You Could Have Won!
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- US inflation fell for the first time since 2020 while simultaneous naval blockade reinstated, pushing Brent crude to $85 despite disinflationary headlines.
- Asia-Pacific markets rallied sharply (MSCI +2.3%, South Korea Kospi +8.2%) as rate hike expectations collapsed, but oil prices ignored the dovish signal.
- Commodity futures pricing in future inflationary pressure despite optimistic inflation data, suggesting investor complacency about geopolitical conflict risks.
War Note: War is Inflationary, Latest War Updates, Energy Markets Review, Asian Volatility is Accelerating
MacroEdge Research
- US-Iran conflict escalation expected to continue for at least 60 days, with administration using nominal wealth effects to mask softening consumer economy ahead of midterms.
- Oil rebound (Brent near $88, WTI >$80) from recent lows dampens market celebrations of energy disinflation and will sustain inflationary pressures.
- War is inherently inflationary for nominal assets; energy prices have rebounded to pre-MOU levels with tier-1 energy stocks like CHRD moving higher.
Pink slips for the New Keynesian Synthesis
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh appointed diverse experts to five advisory task forces signaling genuine institutional reform with epistemic humility.
- Wholesale exclusion of New Keynesian Synthesis (NKS) adherents from task forces indicates Warsh's rejection of macroeconomics' dominant paradigm for Fed policy guidance.
- The composition of the advisory committees signals potential major shifts in Fed communication, balance sheet policy, and inflation framework design.
Real Yields Just Voted. (So, That's Cool)
Garrett Baldwin
- Real yields on the 30-year Treasury have reached their highest levels, signaling a significant shift in fixed-income valuations and market expectations.
- Bank of America's Michael Hartnett's commentary on real yield movements creates outsized market influence and highlights macroeconomic shifts that broader media often misses.
- Real yield movements act as important barometers for market positioning and inflation expectations, affecting everything from equity valuations to currency dynamics.
We're Not Out Of The Woods Yet
Prometheus Research
- Latest CPI data came in colder than expected, but premature market optimism about disinflationary trends overlooks persistent breadth in inflation across economic sectors.
- Headline PCE inflation estimates suggest a -0.14% June print, but underlying inflation breadth remains pervasively elevated with most areas showing 6-month annualized gains above trend.
- Softness in headline CPI was driven largely by oil prices and shelter inflation slowdown, masking structural inflation that PCE data and breadth metrics still indicate remains stubborn.
Maradona Theory
AP Research
- Latest CPI report shows weakest inflation print since 2020 with headline prices falling 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI unchanged, undercutting expectations.
- Federal Reserve's credibility issue centers on convincing markets that policy describes a reaction function rather than pre-committed strategy amid Kevin Warsh testimony.
- Warsh's 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation language gained credibility from weak inflation data rather than requiring immediate rate hike demonstration.
Japan's "Bring It Home" Moment?
PAIDSam Shiffman from Clark Street
- Japan's Ministry of Finance proposed bringing Japanese capital back home, a potential reversal of two decades of overseas diversification.
- Rising inflation and wage growth in Japan, combined with a weak yen, are creating favorable conditions for domestic equity appreciation.
- JGB yields now exceed German yields for the first time, approaching US levels as monetary conditions shift.
- Pro-growth policies under new leadership have restored investor confidence in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei rallying strongly.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity is losing momentum as PBoC tightening and US dollar strength offset support from the Fed and BoE.
- The Shadow Money Bank (SMB) has stalled, signaling a maturing economic cycle.
- Low bond volatility and solid collateral values continue to provide support, but investor risk appetite is fading.
- Emerging Markets are showing particular weakness in investor risk appetite.
The American Exceptionalism Trade
Capital Flows
- China's ~$1 trillion goods surplus locked behind a closed capital account is mechanically recycled into U.S. assets by necessity, structurally supporting S&P 500 valuations.
- Foreign capital flows drive trade flows and the dollar's strength, with tariffs only rerouting supply chains while maintaining the trade deficit due to underlying capital recycling mechanics.
- The dollar's reserve status (58% of world reserves, 88% of currency trades) provides cheapest global funding but extracts costs through a hollowed-out middle class and stagnant real wages.
Four Tropes and Four Refutations
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Refutes 'excessive supply, insufficient demand' trope by arguing composition mismatch across sectors rather than homogeneous oversupply during structural transition.
- Challenges 'chronic overcapacity' narrative by showing sectoral demand/productivity growth rates diverge in vertically integrated systems.
- Uses Pasinetti framework to explain apparent weakness as resource reallocation lag from declining to expanding subsystems, not purchasing power shortage.
YWR GP: The Networked Pension Fund
PAIDErik@YWR
- Traditional strategic asset allocation model no longer fits modern investment landscape where AI, private credit, and media rights span multiple asset classes simultaneously.
- Pension funds must shift from 'where to allocate' questions to 'how to navigate networked, cross-cutting themes' as capital deployment grows more complex.
- Old governance frameworks designed for neat asset class buckets fail to capture today's interconnected risks across technology, infrastructure, regulation, and geopolitics.
The Dog and Pony Show
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Fed's bloated balance sheet is symptom, not cause; real problem is $2 trillion annual fiscal deficits and Fed subservience to Treasury market stability.
- Curates perspectives from Russell Clark, Thomas Hoenig, Louis Gave on private equity excess, technological disruption, and fiscal-monetary policy dynamics.
- Examines historical parallels (1932 automation fears, Baruch on character vs. technology) to contextualize modern economic imbalances.
Markets · 13
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly higher on ASML earnings beat and PayPal bid, with tech rallying while industrials drag in Europe.
- Asia mixed performance with Japan +93bp, China -30bp amid weak growth, and Korea +6.2%; Spain eliminated France from competition.
- Economic data releases scheduled (PPI, Empire State PMI, Beige Book) alongside key earnings from ASML and PayPal drive immediate market direction.
Short Thoughts July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
Michael Burry
- PayPal's $60.50/share takeover bid from Stripe and Advent is significantly undervalued; Burry estimates intrinsic value at IV10 ($75-$80) with a control premium expected around $100.
- IBM stock fell 26% to $213, marking its worst single day since at least 1968, driven by disappointing earnings and guidance.
- Burry maintains positions in undervalued quality businesses, believing current bids will need to rise substantially.
𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚖𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚗𝚜𝚏𝚘𝚛𝚖𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.
Hugh Hendry
- Major single-day market moves like a 20% collapse rarely occur at story beginnings but rather midway through cycles when old explanations stop working and new ones haven't earned credibility.
- Markets often confuse movement with meaning, interpreting significant price declines as containing new information when they actually reflect accumulated uncertainty forcing action.
- Distinguishing genuine company reinvention from deterioration is nearly impossible halfway through transformation, making IBM's actual trajectory—what the company is 'becoming'—the critical question overshadowed by software revenue debates.
Don't Let the AI Trade Distract you from Opportunity in the Land of the Rising Sun
Grizzle Research and Quant
- AI capex spending is creating wealth redistribution to North Asia, with Korean and Taiwanese market capitalizations tripling from $3.2tn to $9.3tn since early 2023.
- Hyperscaler stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) have underperformed significantly from their peaks amid growing concerns about monetization of massive AI investments.
- Key risk is whether lack of returns on AI spending will eventually trigger aggressive selloffs, particularly as earnings seasons test the investment thesis.
NVIDIA, The Fourth House
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA operates a revenue engine collecting $81.6bn quarterly at 75% gross margin on 45-day receivables before products generate returns for customers.
- Company maintains massive exposure through $82bn equity portfolio and $27bn additional commitments in its own customers (CoreWeave, hyperscalers).
- Demand signal risk evidenced by elimination of one customer taxonomy category between February and May filings, suggesting shifts in customer composition and order patterns.
Atlas Engineered Products TSXV:AEP – Catching the bottom, Charlie Brown?
CanadianValueInvestors Substack
- Update on portfolio holdings including Seneca Foods and NFI Group, which have appreciated significantly and no longer qualify as 'cheap' relative to other opportunities.
- Examines Atlas Engineered Products as potential bottom-fishing opportunity while assessing whether current valuations justify continued holding.
- Provides portfolio rebalancing analysis as positions move from undervalued to fairly-priced territory.
This Company Compounded Revenue at ~13% for 18 Years, Trades at ~4× EBIT, and Has Customers Who Almost Never Leave
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- A healthcare compounder grew revenue at ~13% for 18 consecutive years while remaining profitable throughout.
- The company has a recurring-revenue business model with customers who rarely leave and never declining annuity revenue.
- It trades at approximately 4x EBIT with net cash equal to roughly one-third of market value.
- Consolidated margins appear mediocre because a thin-margin pass-through business masks a hidden gem core operation.
Robbing Peter?
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Hyperscaler free cash flow is projected to go negative for the first time ever, despite record profits, due to massive AI capital expenditure.
- The cash being redirected from tech giants is flowing directly to semiconductor companies, representing a wealth transfer rather than destruction.
- Nearly 12% of Q1 earnings growth came from non-recurring investment markups at mega-cap tech firms, raising concerns about earnings quality going forward.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets are flat ahead of CPI data, Fed testimony, and major bank earnings reports.
- Oil prices have risen to $87 as resumption of Iran-U.S. hostilities alarms energy markets.
- Asian markets posted gains overnight with Japan +84bp and China +1.4%, while European markets declined on consumer sector weakness.
KATAYAMA'S WARNING SHOT
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Author admits Japanese Yen forecast has been 'completely and utterly wrong' with Yen weakening and FX volatility collapsing despite bullish positioning.
- Drawing parallels to 1999 DotCom bubble where Verizon lagged while Cisco soared; notes hyperscalers rolling over while semiconductor stocks zoom.
- Author is adding to long Yen position despite poor recent performance, signaling contrarian conviction on currency reversal.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Nearly 1,600 basis point spread between best (XLV healthcare) and worst (XLK tech) sectors since June peak marks real rotation, not noise.
- Five-sector correlation to S&P 500 hit extreme -3.58σ below 27-year mean in June, deteriorated further to 0.456 by July 10.
- Market shrugged off rotation signals through June-July; healthcare and financials breaking out while tech repriced lower.
What Are You Ranting About? Part I
Garrett Baldwin
- Clarifies leveraged ETF mechanics and how they multiply daily index movements using financial contracts.
- Explains difference between normal ETFs (baskets of securities) and leveraged variants (2x, 3x products).
- Simplifies complex financial concepts for readers who found podcast discussion challenging.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Stock ownership value now exceeds home equity for only the third time in 60 years, last occurring in 1997.
- Previous peaks in 1968 during 'go-go' mutual fund era and 1997 dot-com bubble both preceded major market corrections.
- Current shift signals potential market inflection point amid historically high household equity valuations.
Energy · 10
The energy foundations of Fortress Russia: 2
Irina Slav on energy
- Global economy remains dependent on hydrocarbons despite $3.6 trillion spent on climate projects, with oil and gas providing the overwhelming majority of energy consumption.
- Western sanctions on Russia's energy exports had seismic effects on global energy markets during a period of tight supply, forcing a rethink of the original sanctions strategy.
- Fortress Russia's image has been reinforced despite multiple reports suggesting it was crumbling, as hydrocarbon dependence made punitive energy action counterproductive.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Black Sea geopolitical risks are underpriced by markets focused on AI narratives while weather patterns threaten crop yields across North America.
- Latest weather model runs show Illinois, Nebraska, and Kansas receiving 25mm of rain over 12 days versus normal 25-30mm per week, well below seasonal requirements.
- Canola and sugar commodities are setting up for significant trades as financial analysts on social media underestimate agricultural weather impacts relative to mainstream forecasts.
Episode 5: Running on Empty - The Russian Endgame Is Here to Stay
The Commodity Compass
- Russian refinery throughput has collapsed from 5.0mbpd in 2022 to 2.9mbpd in July 2026, creating nationwide gasoline and diesel shortages that rationing cannot fully address.
- Ukraine's drone campaign has shifted focus from destroying refineries to degrading Russia's crude-to-fuel conversion capacity, bringing economic pain directly to ordinary Russians.
- Imports from Belarus and India can only provide partial relief; China is unlikely to help at scale, and sanctions, logistics, and maritime constraints make closing the fuel gap nearly impossible.
OPEC+ Data Deck (July 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- OPEC+ crude production rose to 26,177 kbpd in June 2026, highest since February, but gains depend on Persian Gulf loading recovery amid Iran War disruptions.
- Producer group continues gradual quota increases with only one remaining monthly hike before major production cut reversal; final 2 MMbpd cut remains in place.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic collapse due to US-Iran strikes threatens to undermine production gains achieved in recent months.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Coal Trader podcast discusses the 'RtB paradox' of commodity market behavior where fundamentals matter inconsistently.
- New episode addresses disconnect between robust commodity fundamentals and equity market volatility trends.
- Weekly market view included alongside deeper analysis of why commodity prices and equity performance diverge.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell $1.50/t to $229.50/t fob due to weak buying interest and ample spot supply.
- Indian steelmakers remain largely absent from the market amid weak steel margins and comfortable inventories.
- Recent price declines are steeper than expected but consistent with broader market trends.
- Goonyella/Moranbah North offers at $228/t fob are failing to attract buyer interest.
Artificial Bloom
PAIDDoomberg
- Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology offers an alternative to traditional gas turbines for converting natural gas to electricity, bypassing supply bottlenecks.
- Strong AI demand has created a multi-year backlog for gas turbines, driving urgent search for alternative power generation architectures.
- SOFC technology was previously too expensive for mainstream use but market mania and economic pressures have made it commercially viable despite historical skepticism.
The Invisible Hand of God & Return of the NACHO
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian vessels and a mandatory 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude jumping to $85 on 10% weekly gains.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and UAE can route 45% of Gulf oil exports around the Strait by end-2027 and 75% by late-2028 via pipeline expansions.
- The NACHO trade (Hormuz remains closed) resurfaces amid energy shock, while U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been significantly depleted.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- New Global Coal Trade Flows tool launched tracking seaborne coal exports/imports for 20+ countries with monthly customs data.
- Tool provides met/thermal coal splits and interactive views showing trade momentum and partner-by-partner flows.
- Data covers major reporters including US, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, China, India, and EU with historical trends.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell $2/t to $231/t amid ample spot supply and weak steel demand.
- Seaborne market remains quiet with few buyers engaging despite comfortable coal inventories.
- Chinese domestic coking coal market showing weakness driven by monsoon impacts on Indian demand.
Culture · 9
Kitchen Scraps: Erling Haaland's 6000-Calorie Diet, the Best Refried Beans, and Any-Bean Hummus
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Erling Haaland's 6000-calorie daily diet includes ancestral foods like cow hearts, livers, raw honey, and sea bass with minimal processed foods.
- A new approach to refried beans using black beans, chipotle chilies, and cheese can transform them from tasteless to restaurant-quality.
- Recipe exploration and food preparation insights highlight simple techniques for enhancing everyday dishes.
The Science-Backed Habits of People Who Never Burn Out
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Burnout is primarily a recovery problem, not a volume problem, explaining why some people work hard without burning out while others collapse with moderate loads.
- WHO's 2019 definition of burnout omits total hours worked, focusing instead on exhaustion, mental distance from work, and reduced effectiveness.
- Scientific research shows that the intuitive solution of simply working less and resting more fails to address the underlying recovery deficit driving burnout.
Summer School is in Session
Scott Galloway
- Summer offers an ideal time for professional development through storytelling and design skills that compound leadership effectiveness.
- Prof G Media's research explores macro trends reshaping the economy including remote work's impact on young careers and GLP-1 drugs' consumer effects.
- Live sports emerge as a potential saving mechanism for the media business amid broader industry disruption.
You didn't fail. You quit at 40%
Parent Fit Club
- Your brain is a governor that shuts you down at 40% capacity to protect you from perceived (not real) risk, creating feelings of inability that are noise rather than information.
- Parents quit workouts, diets, and goals not because they're lazy or weak, but because they've hit their brain's safety threshold—this can be overcome by treating exhaustion as a liar.
- Seven behavioral rules adapted from Navy SEAL training can help parents push past the 40% mental wall and access the remaining 60% of capacity in their own lives.
Make the Rocky Mountains Rocky Again.
Wes Flint from The Fleeting West
- Over a century of aggressive wildfire suppression has transformed Rocky Mountain forests from open, rocky landscapes to densely packed stands.
- Historic suppression policies replaced frequent, natural fires that maintained healthier, sparser forest conditions.
- Today's overcrowded, fuel-loaded forests are far more prone to intense crown fires due to ecological imbalance.
- Restored fire ecology could help return the Rocky Mountains to their historic appearance and function.
The 9 foods a urologist would eat if he wanted his testosterone back at 55
Strong After 40
- Testosterone decline after 45 is driven by dietary deficiencies in cholesterol, zinc, selenium, magnesium, and saturated fat.
- Whole eggs, rich in cholesterol and essential nutrients, are a non-negotiable tier-1 food for hormone production.
- Many men unconsciously abandon intentional cooking around 45, shifting to frozen meals and takeout that lack key micronutrients.
- A food hierarchy approach prioritizes essential inputs over restrictive dieting for restoring endocrine system function.
The post-literate age is here
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Reading for pleasure among Americans dropped 43% between 2004 and 2023, with less than half now reading books regularly.
- NYT bestseller sentences have shrunk by a third over the past century, suggesting declining complexity in published material.
- Nearly 30% of adults cannot paraphrase or draw inferences from text, up from under 20% in 2017, indicating a significant comprehension crisis.
America's Social Life Is Shrinking
Demography Unplugged
- Americans' daily face-to-face socializing declined 26% from 47 minutes in 2003 to 35 minutes in 2025.
- Young adults aged 15-24 recorded steepest decline at 43%, dropping from 61 to 35 minutes daily.
- Americans aged 55-64 now spend more time hanging out than teenagers; smartphones and social media cited as primary factor.
How to Make Substitutions
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Framework for ingredient substitution focuses on identifying the 'work' an ingredient performs in a dish.
- Process involves listing what job the ingredient does (flavor, texture, chemistry, color) and finding alternatives that match.
- May require combining multiple substitute ingredients to achieve the overall flavor profile of original recipe.
Tech · 7
Why Tech Is Irrationally Obsessed With Humanoid Robots
Prof G Research Team
- Current humanoid robots are poor at practical work despite tech hype, with leading companies admitting their robots are only half as productive as human replacements.
- Humanoid robots can only perform basic unskilled tasks like stacking boxes and quality control, failing at complex or variable work like laundry.
- Tech executives and investment banks make unrealistic projections about humanoid timelines and capabilities, disconnected from actual performance metrics.
Stripe & Advent bid $53B for PayPal, but Advent’s payments empire is the real story 💳👑; Revolut just gave AI Age…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Stripe and Advent Capital placed a $53 billion bid to acquire PayPal, with Advent's broader payments empire representing the larger strategic story.
- Stripe is pursuing an agentic AI strategy to enhance its fintech capabilities beyond traditional payment processing.
- Revolut gave AI agents direct access to its trading platform, demonstrating how AI automation is reshaping financial services and revealing future finance trends.
[Chart] sunset or silver-lining?
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Software stocks have collapsed from a valuation premium to a material discount versus the rest of tech, with market treating the sector as a sunset industry in the AI age.
- Current extreme relative valuations may present opportunity; software incumbents retain powerful brand and distribution advantages that insulate them from new AI-enabled startup competition.
- Established software companies can deploy AI integrations to improve efficiency and customer offerings rather than becoming obsolete, yet market sentiment has ignored this possibility.
The Sentence That Carried No Evidence (081)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Proposes 'Manifest/Config First' principle requiring all infrastructure changes to be expressed as diffs in versioned config files applied through normal mechanisms.
- Live, unrecorded infrastructure mutations create dangerous hidden state with no audit trail, exemplified by corrupted credentials and vanished routes with zero error messages.
- Pull request-based changes provide precise, reviewable evidence of intentions and enable proper tracking of what happened and why in production systems.
Apple’s OpenAI trade secret lawsuit is a hardware play, not a legal one 😳📱; Nubank built Mexico’s largest digita…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI for trade secret theft is fundamentally a hardware play to pressure OpenAI rather than a traditional legal action.
- Nubank became Mexico's largest digital bank without a full banking license, with a formal license now unlocking new revenue opportunities.
- Anthropic hired Monzo and GoCardless co-founder Tom Blomfield for its compute team, signaling a shift toward building AI-native, self-improving systems.
An Israeli Burn Surgeon Spent Decades Teaching an Enzyme to Do What Only a Blade Could.
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israeli surgeon developed enzymatic treatment using pineapple enzyme to replace surgical blade debridement for deep burns.
- Traditional tangential excision method required cutting dead tissue from living flesh under anesthesia for 50+ years.
- Enzyme-based approach eliminates infection risk and enables new skin formation without invasive surgery.
What the Research Says About Remote Work and Your Career (ft. Stanford Economist Nick Bloom)
The Prof G Pod
- Stanford economist Nick Bloom's research shows hybrid work has become permanent with one-third of Americans on hybrid schedules.
- Data reveals uncomfortable career tradeoffs between remote flexibility and promotion rates.
- Episode explores research-backed implications of remote work on career advancement and organizational dynamics.
AI · 7
The Winner Take All AI Race Between The US and China
Capital Flows
- AI IPOs are functioning as clearing mechanisms for macro liquidity, with Cerebras and SK Hynix setting inflection points in NVIDIA and equity markets.
- The US-China AI race is winner-take-all with no second-place prize; Chinese open-source models already hold ~46% of US enterprise usage despite American dominance.
- Equity valuations are at historic highs globally driven not just by AI but by excess dollar liquidity from China's currency peg and record foreign buying of US stocks.
Breaking: Demis Hassabis endorses preflight safety testing for AI
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- DeepMind's Demis Hassabis endorses preflight safety testing for AI, a proposal Marcus has advocated since 2023 Senate testimony modeled on FDA pharmaceutical analysis.
- Trump administration initially hostile to AI regulation has begun implementing preflight testing following the Mythos incident, though without desired transparency, independence, and breadth.
- Marcus emphasizes preflight testing as urgent AI policy priority to assess costs and benefits before large-scale deployment, addressing risks from inadequate pre-deployment evaluation.
China AI Models: The Complete Primer
Panda Perspectives
- Three-part primer on Chinese AI landscape timed before Xi's Friday announcement at World AI Congress, covering foundation models, incumbent platforms, and deployment into agents/robots.
- Only two public Chinese foundation-model companies available to ordinary investors: Zhipu and MiniMax, both Hong Kong-listed in January.
- Series covers AI businesses embedded in larger platforms (Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou) and the intelligence infrastructure powering agents and robotics.
The AI Economy
Andrew Sarna
- Nearly all recent U.S. business investment growth has come from AI-related industries, signaling AI as the primary economic driver.
- Software job postings have bottomed despite AI disruption fears, with developers becoming more productive rather than replaced by AI.
- Investment markups at Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia accounted for roughly 12% of Q1 earnings growth, raising questions about earnings quality sustainability.
AI vibe shift, broad market views
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Meta's cloud business development increases compute supply, challenging the narrative that compute is structurally supply-constrained.
- OpenAI's IPO delay and fundraising struggles will trickle down to the semiconductor supply chain, weakening demand for AI chips.
- A vibe shift in AI narratives driven by deteriorating revenue and capex fundamentals is making semiconductor valuations dependent solely on positioning rather than fundamentals.
Fable 5 is the smarter model. I still open GPT-5.6 Sol every day — Model Fit will tell you which one is yours.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Model performance benchmarks don't always dictate which AI tool users prefer—workflow fit and personal working style matter more.
- Fable 5 scores higher on benchmarks but GPT-5.6 Sol is the author's daily driver because it aligns with how he works through problems iteratively.
- As AI models improve, users will diverge in their choices based on different needs and working patterns rather than converging on a single best option.
Intelligence Can Be Rented But Taste Must Be Earned
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI has commoditized general intelligence like the Industrial Revolution commoditized physical strength, decoupling raw intelligence from economic necessity.
- Success in the AI age requires a three-part formula: talent (ceiling), taste (what you choose to create), and judgment (critical discernment).
- Intelligence can now be rented through AI tools, making taste and refined judgment the scarce, valuable human capacities that differentiate people.