Macro · 12
Six-Chart Sunday – Summer Lessons & Fall Questions
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- Data centers emerging as critical infrastructure comparable to railroads and power lines with potential regulatory backlash.
- Senate is now competitive in midterms with questions about MAGA Inc. spending effectiveness in defending GOP majorities.
- AI systems can escape containment and evade detection, raising liability questions as advanced AI deployment accelerates.
The Week That Was and the Week That Is: Inflation Will Decide FOMCs Fate
Global Macro Method
- August employment report showed stronger-than-expected payroll gains of 162,000, removing a key barrier to Fed rate hikes.
- Inflation data, particularly CPI on Friday, now becomes the deciding factor for a September rate hike decision.
- Labor market momentum has shifted from showing weakness to demonstrating resilience, forcing Fed to address persistent inflation concerns.
China Weekly Wrap: The Bull Market Checklist Edition
Panda Perspectives
- China sold profitable semiconductor companies (CXMT) while buying insurers, suggesting strategic portfolio rotation away from tech.
- Beijing imposed taxes on foreign dividends for the first time in 32 years, signaling potential capital control shifts.
- The author assesses China is not yet in a bull market and outlines a checklist of conditions needed for confirmation.
AiQ Shifts Focus to South Asia
Nico from AiQ
- El Niño impact analysis shows monsoon effects on Pakistan and India are uneven; accurate regional data is critical for crop forecasting.
- Employment landscape is bifurcated into winners and losers with zero middle ground, eroding middle class despite strong aggregate job numbers.
- Manufacturing renaissance absent outside data centers; wage growth stalled despite low under-the-table immigrant labor and apparent economic strength.
In Memoriam: The Pre-Sale, 1953-2026
Panda Perspectives
- China's pre-sale housing model, invented in Hong Kong in 1953 by Henry Fok, died on August 28, 2026 after regulators signed off on its demise.
- The pre-sale mechanism—selling unbuilt units with deposits and installments—financed the largest construction boom in human history after entering mainland law in 1994.
- The model's collapse represents a structural end to a financing mechanism that underpinned decades of Chinese real estate-driven growth.
Blood in the Water
Peruvian Bull
- Japan's 30-year bond yields surged to 4.080% at auction, up from 3.937%, with secondary market trading reaching 4.19%—the highest since 1999.
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.02%, a 30-year high not seen since August 1996, signaling a major shift in the entire yield curve.
- The metaphor of blood in the water suggests institutional investors are detecting weakness and vulnerability in Japanese debt markets.
August 2026 BA Real Estate update
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Buenos Aires real estate market is experiencing stagnation with flat prices for months and mortgages down 30% year-over-year.
- Argentina's libertarian government announced a novel intervention: using state pension funds (ANSES) to finance long-term peso lending to banks for first-time homebuyers.
- Analysis suggests the timing of this policy shift could prove optimal for stimulating the construction and mortgage sectors.
Impossible Things
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Rising US bond yields reflect stronger nominal economic growth rather than loss of confidence in US assets, with World GDP estimates showing acceleration.
- Current policy regime aims at limiting volatility and preserving market liquidity, not implementing hidden yield curve control as widely assumed.
- Market assumptions about higher rates being inherently bearish are challenged by evidence that current growth tempo is both elevated and still rising.
Regime Persistence
Prometheus Research
- Macro Regime Probabilities continue showing dominance of rising nominal growth with long stocks, commodities, and short fixed income delivering 1.28 Sharpe ratio.
- Regime uses bottom-up signals across asset markets to construct forward-looking cross-asset macro environment estimates incorporating fundamental and price-based information.
- Post-COVID backdrop shows regime persistence is fundamentally supported, suggesting portfolio positioning favoring equities and commodities over bonds will likely continue.
Weekly KAOS - The Jobs Shock, the Yield Surge, and the Debt Governor
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- August payrolls delivered 4-sigma beat at triple Street expectations, keeping Warsh Fed steady despite White House demands for rate cuts.
- Yield surge driven by AI's Debt Governor and long-overdue bond normalization rather than fiscal debt crisis, supporting disinflationary growth thesis.
- Four Horsemen of US Resilience indicate benign gravity scenario where economy hums while inflation drifts lower, as Governor Waller signals willingness to hold rates.
Using PSI to predict the next BoJ policy decision
Japan Macro Advisors
- Policy Stance Indicator framework reveals BoJ board has shifted toward a likely policy rate hike at the September 18 meeting.
- A 7-2 vote split is predicted for raising the policy rate to 1.25%, with board hawks Takata and Tamura leading advocacy.
- Major financial disturbance remains the only factor that could prompt a pause, but a September hike is assessed as likely a done deal.
Adverse Possession
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- The U.S. has a long history of asset confiscation (slavery abolition, wartime seizures) predating its use of sanctions on foreign reserves, undermining the narrative that freezing Russian assets was unprecedented.
- Central banks globally are responding to reserve-currency confiscation risk by accumulating gold at multi-decade rates, signaling structural loss of confidence in dollar-denominated assets.
- The debate over reserve-currency stability conflates recent geopolitical weaponization with deeper questions about counterparty risk and property rights in a fiat system.
Markets · 11
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 6 September 2026
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- S&P 500 experiencing seasonal speed wobbles with credit markets signaling concerns in tech and CCC-rated sectors.
- Profit margins have reached record highs driven by tech, but boom-bust risk exists in AI and tech lending.
- Key downside risks include valuations, allocations, sentiment, and Fed policy despite interesting upside scenarios.
The Week Ahead 9/7/26
Eliant
- Post-Labor Day volumes are expected to increase, with the Nasdaq outperforming other indices by 30bps while the Dow lagged by 20bps.
- The 10Y yield reached 4.8% as a ceiling before retreating, supported by dovish comments from Fed official Waller.
- Upcoming week features critical economic data including PPI and CPI reports that will influence equity and fixed income markets.
Newsletter and Life Update, August 26
Jordan from Geólogo Trader 🇦🇺
- Portfolio delivered best month of the year with strong performance across key drill projects.
- Australian media allocates disproportionate coverage to high-profile scandals while serious violent crimes receive minimal airtime.
- Author reflects on opportunity costs and media priorities in the country after emigrating to Paraguay.
The Wrap – Recapping What You May Have Missed
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- HNI acquired Steelcase to expand office furniture brand portfolio; question remains on strategic next moves.
- Promoters with histories of regulatory trouble, lawsuits, and bankruptcies have increasingly gravitated toward AI hype and Nvidia connections.
- Wide-ranging KEDM podcast with Harris Kupperman covers AI applications and corporate financing strategies to avoid business failure.
Atoms in Algo World
The Blind Squirrel
- Portfolio construction focuses on identifying resource businesses that convert structural scarcity into durable free cash flows across multiple macro scenarios.
- Author aims to avoid repeating mistakes of the 2026 Extrapolation Portfolio, which overweighted financials before GFC and energy/resources during China's fixed asset investment boom.
- Hard asset bull thesis requires disciplined stock selection rather than indiscriminate resource sector exposure.
“You Don’t Own Enough Japan!” w/ Jesper Koll
Capital Misallocation
- Episode 83 features Japan bull economist Jesper Koll discussing why investors remain underexposed to Japan despite favorable conditions.
- Koll brings experience as former JPMorgan/Merrill Lynch chief economist and current board director at OIST and multiple Japanese start-ups.
- Host offers paid subscriber access to AI capex research platforms and WhatsApp channel with morning market summaries and trade ideas.
Complacency Before The Cliff (Bonds)
Capital Flows
- Bond markets remain in a low volatility regime despite marginal uptick in realized volatility, creating dangerous complacency ahead of policy errors.
- Carry trade and interest rate risk represent the greatest threats to financial markets as policy actors manipulate these sources of liquidity without traditional risk management constraints.
- Strategy implementation during low-volatility periods is critical to execute effectively when policy errors occur, with free model codebase available for implementation.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Stock trading at ~$129 with 23% YTD gains and 49% 12-month returns, driven by strong Q2 2026 revenue of $1.67B (+38% YoY) and 68% EPS beat.
- FY2026 guidance raised to $5.13-$5.26B net sales with 10 Phase 3 studies ongoing and four anticipated approvals within next 12 months.
- Strong balance sheet with $4.0B+ net cash and no meaningful debt supports pipeline development and M&A, with analyst consensus Buy rating at $127.13 average target.
Hot European Summer
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
- European equities have outperformed global peers, with the Euro Stoxx 50 beating the S&P 500 since early 2025 despite tariff shocks.
- European banking sector has outperformed US megacap tech stocks significantly since 2022, contradicting value-trap narratives.
- Consensus expects 18% EPS growth for full-year Europe and strong 14% growth in first half, undermining myths about European growth weakness.
SB Energy, Quality of Cash: The Fourteenth Position
Cape Fear Advisors
- SB Energy IPO filing reveals substantial dependence on OpenAI as a critical business relationship.
- Analysis identifies thirteen disclosed positions in the capital structure with the offered stock representing the fourteenth position.
- Quality of Cash framework examines cash positioning and payment priority order across NVIDIA residual value guaranties and related leases worth approximately 4.25 gigawatts.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets holding flat ahead of Nonfarm Payroll data release.
- Author discusses historical context of slavery across multiple regions and time periods, questioning media coverage disparities.
- Personal reflections on book-writing process and upcoming media appearances for author's new project.
Energy · 10
The Shopping List: Uranium + Tungsten + Copper
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Author plans to increase exposure to miners in uranium, tungsten, and copper sectors.
- Focus is on companies already included in the author's investment book.
- Strategic positioning in commodities critical for energy transition and industrial applications.
What To Do About Net Zero
David Turver from Eigen Values
- Author presents a speech proposing how to dismantle Net Zero policies currently facing political backlash in the UK.
- Industrial electricity prices in Britain have become the highest in the developed world, causing widespread economic destruction.
- Political consensus on Net Zero has fractured following Reform party's election platform opposing the policy.
This Week In Oil
Bison Insights
- US oil inventories are nearing multi-year lows while rig counts continue rising, creating potential supply constraints.
- Net speculative positioning in oil futures rebounded from lows, historically preceding volatile price increases.
- China's return to oil market purchases and Citadel's reported bid for US production assets suggest institutional demand surge; Strait of Hormuz tensions add geopolitical risk premium.
Kaos Theory Episode 14: Lakshmi Sreekumar
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- Lakshmi Sreekumar discusses how oil market dynamics require understanding geopolitics beyond simple barrel counts, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Strait of Hormuz operates as a 'sieve' absorbing disruption through demand destruction, bypass routes, and inventory draws rather than as a binary open/closed chokepoint.
- Iran's ambitions in the Strait and China's permanent demand decline are reshaping oil market expectations and driving a prolonged strategic 'staring contest.'
The Shale Well Productivity Problem
Bison Insights
- U.S. shale well productivity has declined on a per-foot basis over the past six years, making further production growth increasingly difficult and expensive.
- Longer laterals and drilling improvements have historically offset productivity declines, but U.S. oil production has recently begun to plateau.
- Declining productivity suggests shale's second growth phase is maturing, potentially pulling the oil price forward curve higher and paralleling Hubbert's curve dynamics seen in conventional oil.
Necessary Inventions
PAIDDoomberg
- Primary energy consumption follows an upward trajectory driven by humanity's struggle against entropy and desire for higher living standards.
- Despite periodic degrowth advocacy and policy interventions, aggregate energy consumption declines inevitably reverse to regression.
- Energy market participants repeatedly underestimate growth potential in sectors like shale gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids despite strong theoretical and empirical support.
Oil Context Weekly (W36)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Weekly oil market update covering crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data.
- Analysis includes ongoing tracking of Middle East shipping flows and high-frequency market developments.
- Paid subscribers receive a detailed 40-page PDF market positioning data deck with comprehensive analysis.
Coking Coal Rally Accelerates as China, USEC HVA Pull Seaborne Market Higher
The Coal Trader
- Coking coal rally accelerates with Australian PLV jumping to $280/t fob and tier-two HCC surging $8.90/t as China drives seaborne market higher.
- Screen activity shows brisk trading with October Peak Downs/Saraji bid moving from $278/t to $285/t, indicating buyer willingness to chase prompt tonnes.
- SGX futures remain backwardated with December at $272/t, suggesting market characterizes current tightness as acute rather than permanent trend.
The Next Oil Shortage - Nobody is Ready
Bison Insights
- Author discusses upcoming oil market challenges and potential shortage scenarios on Triangle Investor podcast.
- Oil price volatility noted with prices down 2% on the day of publication.
- Investment disclaimer included emphasizing personal positions and need for individual advisor consultation.
No holds barred panification
Irina Slav on energy
- Climate catastrophism relies on exaggerated predictions that get media amplification while accurate forecasts receive little attention, distorting public perception of climate trends.
- Europe's summer 2026 weather—droughts and heat—has been weaponized by climate advocates but represents normal variation rather than proof of accelerating climate change.
- The author criticizes Bloomberg's coverage as indecent advocacy masquerading as reporting, prioritizing emotional panic over evidence-based climate assessment.
Politics · 8
Hope Florida Scandal Bad for Business
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Hope Florida scandal is deterring business relocations to Florida due to concerns about legal jurisdiction and political extortion risk.
- The true cost of such scandals is unmeasurable, as companies decide to locate elsewhere rather than in the state.
- The scandal serves as a national warning to entrepreneurs about Florida's legal system and political climate.
To Save Gaza, Resist Hamas?
John Aziz
- Palestinian peace advocate Ahmed Fouad al-Khatib argues in the New York Times that Hamas must have no role in Gaza's future.
- Al-Khatib documents Hamas's history of brutality against Palestinians and suicide attacks that empowered Israeli extremists.
- The piece critiques Western Hamas supporters who claim to support Palestinians while backing an organization that doesn't represent Palestinian people.
The Anti-American Divide in the Democratic Party
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Democratic Party faces rising anti-American faction rejecting Constitution, capitalism, and national identity rather than debating policy.
- DSA-aligned candidates openly call for revolution and reimagining American political order while radical figures champion hostile regimes.
- Jared Moskowitz's electoral success by rejecting anti-American politics demonstrates Democrats can defeat this faction if willing to draw clear lines.
America’s Universities Are for Sale
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Qatar has directed $6.6+ billion to U.S. universities—more than any other foreign government—creating financial leverage over institutional independence.
- Western scholars accept vast sums from oppressive regimes while publicly defending their intellectual autonomy and values.
- Foreign funding creates code of silence that enables subversion of Western institutions through contractual relationships rather than covert operations.
Live Briefing: PUTIN’S BLUNDER — WHY HIS COLD REALISM FAILED IN UKRAINE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Witkoff and Kushner are negotiating with Putin in Moscow on a new U.S. proposal to end the Ukraine conflict amid ongoing peace talks.
- Putin's military dominance has failed to achieve the political outcome he expected due to Ukraine's fighting will, drone technology, and European counter-balancing.
- The briefing will explain why Russia's strategic assumptions about the war have been fundamentally undermined by geopolitical and technological shifts.
How Foreign Regimes Are Funding the Radical Islamic Transformation of America
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Houston now hosts over 200 mosques and Islamic centers, representing a significant demographic shift in Texas.
- Hamtramck, Michigan elected an all-Muslim city council in November 2021, marking a nationwide political transformation.
- The article argues that foreign regimes are funding radical Islamic institutions that undermine traditional American identity.
Friday Five (September 4, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- The Long View launches 'Friday Five,' a new recurring segment curating five key pieces of content weekly for busy readers.
- Format includes two recent pieces, two archival pieces, and one notable data point to enable readers to stay informed efficiently.
- Authors emphasize that paid subscriptions enable deeper research and trend analysis beyond daily news cycles.
Little Tobacco Moment
Scott Galloway
- Meta settled with 47 states for $17.1 billion over addictive algorithms and youth privacy violations but didn't admit wrongdoing.
- Market shrugged off the settlement with Meta shares rising 1%, effectively negating the financial penalty impact.
- Author argues this is not Meta's 'Big Tobacco moment' but a superficial gesture that leaves core harms unaddressed.
Culture · 8
Cold Oven Brown Sugar Pound Cake
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Cold-oven pound cake produces superior results compared to preheated-oven baking with a moist, tender crumb and crispy top.
- Recipe modifications include substituting all white sugar with dark brown sugar and switching to salted butter for enhanced flavor.
- Steady 325°F temperature proved more effective than the original method of changing temperature mid-bake for even baking.
Academia's Failure To Learn From The Jason Arday Debacle Is A Disgrace
Kaizen Asiedu
- Jason Arday fabricated multiple credentials including visiting professorships, published books, and charity funds that sparked Nature editorial on academia's failure.
- Cambridge declined to investigate concerns raised in May 2023 despite peer doubts about Arday's legitimacy.
- Institutional oversight collapsed as a prominent academic figure rose without basic verification of extraordinary claims.
Chocolate Chip Cookie Cinnamon Rolls (15g protein, under 300 calories)
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Chocolate chip cookie cinnamon rolls deliver under 300 calories and 15g protein while maintaining tender, indulgent texture.
- Recipe combines egg whites, Greek yogurt, and protein powder with cookie dough filling for nutritional optimization.
- Refined sugar-free version achieves macros comparable to protein bars without sacrificing taste quality.
“A teacher’s job, he told us, was to arm children with tools against loneliness”
The Substack Post
- Wendell Berry, who passed away recently, taught that a teacher's fundamental job is to arm children with tools against loneliness through education and human connection.
- Berry's practical approach to teaching—rooted in his identity as both a farmer and intellectual—modeled how to live authentically by integrating work, writing, and community.
- The article reflects on Berry's 1987 composition class and his enduring influence on how teachers can foster meaningful relationships with students.
A vibrant green soup to end summer on a high note
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Amanda Hesser shares a vibrant green spinach and kale soup recipe as summer winds down and routines tighten.
- She invites readers to reflect on major home decisions and share regrets or happy surprises in the comments.
- The post combines personal narrative about transitioning back to Brooklyn with a practical recipe for fall meal planning.
YouTube Videos I’m Recommending Right Now
Ted Gioia
- Ted Gioia critiques typical reaction videos for featuring inexperienced listeners and proposes featuring experts instead—like bass legend Ron Carter reacting to Miles Davis.
- Introducing mathematician and musician Ruoshi Sun, who creates innovative Bach arrangements for piano during spare time.
- The article advocates for going directly to authoritative sources rather than relying on uninformed perspectives.
How the West Built a Secular Sharia
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- West is replacing Christian concepts of forgiveness and mercy with secular regime of constant surveillance, public shaming, and ideological conformity.
- Smartphones have created everyday panopticon where people modify behavior assuming constant observation by anonymous internet users rather than traditional religious oversight.
- Modern culture obsesses over policing behavior despite declining religiosity, replacing due process and forgiveness with performative virtue signaling and reputation destruction.
Fancy Renovations and Fancier Cancellations
Feminine Chaos
- Podcast discusses a London Substack writer's fascination with documenting a neighbor's home renovation project.
- Met Museum's cancellation of fashion designer John Galliano's exhibition following backlash over anti-Semitic statements raises questions about institutional accountability.
- Episode explores the intersection of celebrity culture, institutional leadership, and public discourse on cancellation.