★ Priority · 12
Why You Should Start a Business in Your 20s. Plus . . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Young entrepreneurs face institutional pressure toward stable, low-risk careers despite evidence that breakthrough innovation requires early risk-taking.
- Canadian entrepreneur Ronnen Harary exemplifies the founder mentality, spotting unconventional business opportunities (Grass Head toy) while still in his 20s.
- Cultural and institutional biases toward caution prevent bright graduates from pursuing entrepreneurial ventures with genuine upside potential.
What can the BoJ do at the next meeting?
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- GPIF and other Japanese domestic institutions are rebalancing assets back to JGBs, improving supply/demand dynamics and stabilizing the long end of the curve.
- GPIF's active allocation to JGBs is already increasing above benchmark at 27%, with potential to reach 30% before 2030 benchmark review.
- Stable JGB yields support yen strength and allow BoJ rate normalization to catch up with import price pressures.
The President Who Cried ‘Election Fraud.’ Plus . . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump claimed China engaged in a vast, well-funded conspiracy to influence the 2020 election including voter data theft and ballot manufacturing.
- Trump alleged the Biden administration suppressed evidence of Chinese election interference, placing the burden of proof on the president to rebuild trust on this issue.
- The article examines Trump's claims in detail rather than dismissing them outright, while noting his credibility challenges on election-related matters.
IS THE AI TRADE DONE - PART 2
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- SK Hynix stock fell 37% from June peak despite DRAM prices hitting new highs, suggesting market concerns about capex spending rather than fundamental AI demand weakness.
- SK Hynix's announcement to double capex to address memory shortage has been negatively priced in, as markets penalize increased spending and future supply pressure.
- Apple's strong performance despite years of flat capex spending highlights a tension between capital discipline and growth narratives in the current market environment.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Chinese AI model Kimi outperforming US frontier models triggered a 'Deepseek 2.0 moment' semiconductor selloff, raising questions about AI capex ROI.
- Market rotation signal spreads from semiconductors to broader market as confidence in high-capex AI spending faces renewed skepticism.
- Historical pattern suggests markets punish the most confident sector narratives, with AI/hyperscaler narrative hubris likely next target for repricing.
TGIF: The High-T Department of War
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump delivered election integrity speech highlighting 220 million Chinese-obtained voter files and 278,000 noncitizens on voter rolls.
- Author finds the speech lacked showmanship and engagement, comparing Trump's repetition of Michigan 2020 grievances to revisiting past events.
- White House claims identify noncitizen voter registrations, presented as progress toward tighter election security measures.
Never Shut Up.
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Domestic violence survivors struggle to maintain control of their voices as organizations like Time's Up tokenize stories then abandon survivors when facing lawsuits.
- SLAPP lawsuits target individual survivors rather than supporting organizations, leaving women without structural protection and often exiled and overwhelmed.
- Evan Rachel Wood's strategy focuses on systemic patterns and legislation rather than individual narrative, helping her navigate heavy online abuse and defame her abuser.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Global selloff in AI stocks accelerating: Taiwan's Taiex down 7% (worst since April 2025), TSMC down 7%, Japanese memory stock Kioxia down 54% from recent peak.
- Nikkei fell as much as 6.2% intraday amid broad semiconductor and AI stock weakness across Asia.
- AI earnings disappointment triggering widespread valuation reassessment across global tech and semiconductor stocks.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Chinese AI models (Kimi release) closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, threatening frontier model valuations and cloud infrastructure investment justification.
- Hedge fund demand for equity funding remains elevated; Korea market closed but anticipated sharp selling Friday could trigger Asian volatility.
- Concerns about Oracle and other companies' oversized valuations given competitive pressure from cheaper Chinese AI alternatives.
Rod Dreher: J.D. Vance’s Time for Choosing
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- J.D. Vance faces a difficult position as Vice President, having opposed the Iran war initially but then supporting Trump's escalation.
- Vance was appointed chief negotiator to extract the U.S. from the war, but the June 17 memorandum collapsed due to Iranian violations.
- The piece examines Vance's dilemma between loyalty to the President and speaking out against a deteriorating military situation.
IS THE AI TRADE DONE?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Rising 2-year yields have severely impacted speculative assets like silver (down 55% from peak) and crypto (Ethereum at 2020 prices), raising questions about AI's classification.
- Korean memory and AI stocks have broken out of long-term ranges while broader Korean indices and speculative plays have lagged, suggesting differentiation in AI positioning.
- The trillion-dollar question is whether AI represents genuine economic value or merely speculative structures erected around the trend.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- July saw semiconductors destroyed while broader market near all-time highs, suggesting potential 'Uno Reverse' on the AI liquidity vortex thesis.
- Most crowded trade remains 'long semis' per BofA survey despite weakness, signaling premature bottom call and continued pain ahead.
- Portfolio damage persists despite S&P strength, driven by FOMO-MOMO trading concentrated in most-crowded positions like semiconductor longs.
Macro · 14
Blighty and the Binface Bottom
The Blind Squirrel
- UK gilt yields have surpassed 2022 Truss/Kwarteng crisis levels, driven by public sector net borrowing at decade highs outside Covid.
- Speculative GBP shorts in CME futures are at Brexit-era extremes with elevated open interest, signaling currency weakness concerns.
- UK asset outflows and underweight positioning mirror post-Brexit referendum chaos, with domestic mutual fund outflows reaching £20bn in Q1.
China Will Destroy AI Margins While The UK Holds a Car Boot Sale
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- June CPI data masked underlying inflation drivers as energy prices reversed sharply upward amid Iran-US tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Fed officials are now divided on rate direction with half penciling in hikes despite market pricing in continued easing, signaling policy confusion.
- AI sector repricing collapsed after strong earnings (TSMC +59% profits, SK Hynix premium to Seoul listing) were met with sell-offs, indicating margin compression fears.
Redeye Macro Note: Reviewing the Weekly Close, Binary Market Outcomes for 2H 2026, Asian Review Pt. 4
MacroEdge Research
- Asian markets experiencing violent volatility with Korea seeing 1-in-30 adults margin called and Nikkei cracking lower from orderly drawdown.
- Oil market responding to escalating Iran-US conflict with infrastructure targeted and Strait of Hormuz shipping near shutdown, pushing Brent toward $85/bbl.
- Binary market outcomes for 2H 2026 hinge on geopolitical escalation, currency movements, and potential policy shifts amid elevated risk indicators.
Weekly KAOS, 7/17/26
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- Third consecutive week of Hormuz strikes and Iranian tensions fails to sustain crude oil bids despite escalating military activity.
- Market sentiment has shifted from pricing disruption risk to pricing durability as traders become desensitized to repeated headlines.
- Benign disinflation data conflicts with strong Philadelphia Fed readings, creating uncertainty for Federal Reserve policy direction and China tariff implications.
Macro Cycle Allocations
Prometheus Research
- Macro cycle allocation measures show current cycle positioning remains attractive through proprietary stage estimates of macroeconomic cycle.
- Latest GDP Nowcast indicates moderating real GDP growth, though domestic weakness is offset by trade data volatility masking steady 2.5% domestic real GDP.
- Daily business cycle gauges continue to signal expansionary phase despite headline GDP moderation.
1999.AI
Scott Galloway
- AI market displays echoes of 1999 dot-com peak with unsustainable valuations and 'get big fast' mentality among startups and VCs.
- 18-year gap since last financial crisis combined with cycle visibility suggests potential AI bubble unraveling similar to dot-com collapse.
- Unlike 1999, AI bubble unraveling could produce 'twist ending' given underlying technology utility, but valuations require significant compression.
Inflation -> Rotation -> Capitulation?
Global Macro Method
- Oil price surge is triggering renewed global rate hike expectations and sector rotation away from technology toward financials and defensive stocks.
- Higher long-dated real yields are testing cycle highs, creating headwinds for the AI/tech earnings narrative that drove market gains.
- Current rotation signals a test of whether AI earnings can sustain valuations under higher discount rates, not yet a full recession scenario.
Midweek Macro Note: A Look at the Macro Data From the Week, An Analysis of Trump v Warsh (Project ZA v AR), Portfo…
MacroEdge Research
- Iran-US conflict escalating with oil prices at critical threshold; war dynamics shifting from Israel-Iran to primarily US-Iran confrontation.
- Nasdaq broke below diamond pattern technical setup with expectation of retesting downside trendline; potential short-term 'war climax' if escalation continues through weekend.
- Korean market near major parabolic uptrend; global technical indicators showing significant degradation across equity markets.
Be Aggressively Defensive!
Benny and The Squirrel
- Show features David Dredge, Convex Strategies CIO with decades of front-row experience managing risk through major economic events from 1987 crash onward.
- Discussion centers on defensive positioning strategies amid market volatility and economic uncertainty.
- Content available in full with show notes, slide deck, and audio edition for paid subscribers.
The OECD’s China Credit Critique Gets the Question Wrong
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- OECD critique of China's 'subsidized finance' and 'soft money' access represents continuation of Western campaign blaming China's policy settings for global imbalances.
- Western commentary frames technical economic arguments about credit access as objective analysis while embedding assumptions about efficiency and fair competition that deserve scrutiny.
- Essay argues OECD gets the fundamental question wrong regarding Chinese firms' credit access and state economic policy.
The Railway Hallucination: The Infrastructure That Outlived Its Shareholders
Capital Misallocation
- Railway infrastructure of 1844 Britain survived despite equity destruction; George Hudson controlled third of network as 'Railway King' then lost everything within five years.
- Case study shows technology can be real and infrastructure successful while shareholder equity still gets destroyed completely—the ending is the thesis.
- Historical example illustrates capital misallocation patterns where systems outlive those who funded them.
The Expansion Continues
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Research's Observatory monitors U.S. economic fundamentals through systematic analysis of retail sales and macro data releases.
- Latest retail sales data continue to support the thesis of ongoing economic expansion with implications for the macro cycle.
- The note provides time-series analysis and GDP/inflation effects drawn from comprehensive macroeconomic monitoring.
June Inflation Report
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- June CPI delivered the first significant Core CPI miss in months, with most impact coming through PCE rather than headline figures.
- June PPI showed softness in airfares and portfolio management services, the components most relevant for core PCE projections.
- A July rate hike is off the table; the house call is for a December hike with September/October remains data-dependent.
AI Capex, Tight Liquidity and the Next Commodity Surge
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Multi-trillion-dollar AI capex booms are inherently inflationary and reshape investment landscapes by diverting money from financial asset inflation.
- Money flowing into real economy capex reduces liquidity available for equity/bond inflation, requiring monitoring of commodity, gold, and Bitcoin signals.
- World GDP nowcast shows sharp acceleration despite geopolitical tensions, but strong real growth doesn't guarantee strong financial market returns.
Culture · 10
How to Immerse Yourself in Books Again - Part I
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- Digital technology and social media have eroded sustained reading attention spans, with users now losing focus after just a page or two.
- Nicholas Carr moved to the Colorado mountains with minimal connectivity to recover deep reading immersion, requiring radical environmental change.
- Modern cognitive patterns favor dopamine-driven shallow skimming over the transported, imaginative state enabled by uninterrupted book engagement.
The Collapse at Netflix Signals the End of Audience Capture
Ted Gioia
- Netflix's recent crisis in quarterly results signals broader collapse of 'audience capture' business model dominant across tech industry.
- Netflix's struggles dragged NASDAQ down, indicating Wall Street now recognizes systemic vulnerabilities in tech's dominant strategy.
- Failure of audience capture model may have beneficial implications for consumers caught in captive streaming and platform ecosystems.
A Social Media Ban Cannot Restore Childhood Alone
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- UK's under-16 social media ban (effective 2027) addresses rising anxiety and loneliness but treats symptom rather than root cause.
- Childhood erosion stems from shift from play-based to phone-based environments, requiring rebuilding real-world relationships and experiences.
- Regulatory restrictions alone insufficient; restoring childhood demands systemic cultural change beyond platform restrictions.
The evils of whimsy, how dementia is being defeated, great description of snow, terrible AI posters
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Britain's cultural tendency toward whimsy and self-deprecating humor reflects deeper post-imperial anxiety and national decline rather than genuine confidence.
- British media's indulgence of comedic political figures like Count Binface exemplifies unseriousness masquerading as superiority, unconvincingly signaling that Britain doesn't take itself too seriously.
- National smugness and unconvincing self-deprecation betray inner unease, similar to a once-great athlete making uncomfortable jokes about weight gain.
Returning "Home"
Garrett Baldwin
- The author reflects on returning to Wrigley Field decades after attending an All-Star Game there as a child with his father and brother.
- He explores how revisiting familiar places triggers deep nostalgia and reconnects him to specific memories spanning 36 years.
- The piece weaves baseball history, personal family moments, and the experience of an expat returning home emotionally to meaningful locations.
Options leave you breathless
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Smirnoff vodka's American origin in 1930s Connecticut left almost no trace despite founding a major spirits brand, mirroring the brand's desire for invisibility.
- The Smirnov family fled Bolshevik revolution and sold exclusive U.S. distribution rights to cosmetics executive Rudolph Kunett, who relocated operations to Hartford after five years.
- Prohibition disrupted American drinking habits and accelerated the transition of early foreign spirits enterprises into larger corporate operations.
Regret, superstition, and trauma-bonding: two champions on what it’s really like to play in the World Cup
The Substack Post
- World Cup matches exceed 12 billion global views, drawing elite players into high-pressure environments mixing national pride with individual aspiration and heartbreak.
- Champions Julie Foudy and Abby Wambach reflect on managing elite competition stress, regret processing, and performing under overwhelming public scrutiny across eight total World Cups.
- Female soccer pioneers now leverage their championship experience to host 'Welcome to the Party' podcast with Billie Jean King, educating audiences on women's sports pressure and trauma.
Viola Buitoni: Writing, Cooking and Travel
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Viola Buitoni's writing style emphasizes how words transform meaning through context and etymology, combining form and function to make recipes accessible and pleasurable.
- Buitoni brings 'soul' to Milk Street through evocative instructional prose that makes cooking techniques intuitive while honoring Italian culinary traditions.
- Long-term teaching partnership since 2010 demonstrates Buitoni's expertise across multiple platforms: magazine, radio, television, and curated food travel experiences in Italy.
LeBron Spends $1.5M a Year to Recover. Here’s Your $0 Version.
Parent Fit Club
- LeBron's $1.5M annual recovery protocol relies on ice baths, hyperbaric chambers, and 12 hours of sleep—luxuries unavailable to busy parents.
- Elite athlete principles can be adapted to parental schedules by focusing on underlying mechanisms rather than expensive tools.
- Tired parents experience cumulative fatigue, stiffness, and soreness from both activity and chronic stress, requiring recovery strategies designed for constrained time.
The Beliefs That Built Your Life May Eventually Limit It
Sara
- Success can fail in two ways: upgrading lifestyle too fast (creating unsustainable income pressure) or keeping old habits despite growth (capping potential).
- Competence becomes a trap when capability replaces delegation; doing everything yourself because you're good at it prevents scaling.
- Five outdated beliefs (doing it yourself, avoiding spending, staying lean, not delegating) serve early-stage growth but ceiling later-stage success.
Politics · 8
Should there be a Burqa ban?
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Denmark is extending its 2018 burqa ban to schools and universities as part of efforts against 'parallel societies' with immigrant populations.
- Violators face fines up to 10,000 kroner; critics argue the measure is largely symbolic since few students wear full-face coverings.
- The government frames the ban as establishing expectations for participation in Danish educational and public life, while opponents question its practical impact.
Hamas Knew Gaza Would Suffer As A Result Of October 7
John Aziz
- Documents attributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar from August 2022 outline plans for 10,000 fighters to breach Israeli borders and seize communities.
- Sinwar anticipated Israeli retaliation with overwhelming force, including the theoretical possibility of nuclear weapons, yet proceeded with October 7 attack plans.
- Palestinian analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib criticizes Hamas for sacrificing Gaza's population for international propaganda strategy despite foreseeing devastating consequences.
This isn’t complicated: don’t invade someone’s country, gang-rape, torture, drag babies into terror tunnels, and m…
Tzlil Berko
- Author compiles audience-voted greatest hits from past year addressing geopolitical conflicts and media coverage bias.
- Post critiques Western media's portrayal of complex international conflicts, comparing current coverage patterns to hypothetical WWII reporting.
- Author argues that applying cultural relativism to Islamism enables perpetrators to operate without accountability.
The Saudis Are Lying, Again!
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Israeli President Herzog appeared on Saudi state broadcaster Al Arabiya praising Abraham Accords and calling for Israel-Saudi normalization.
- Al Arabiya is Saudi government-controlled media where the Public Investment Fund holds majority ownership, making the platform a deliberate Saudi foreign policy tool.
- The interview timing ahead of Israel's elections signals Saudi strategic positioning on regional peace and normalization efforts.
Why Leaders Choose Risky Wars – What Trump, Netanyahu and Putin Have in Common
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Trump, Netanyahu, and Putin are escalating risky wars due to a shared 'political survival trap' where leaders prioritize staying in power over rational cost-benefit analysis.
- Once leaders frame survival as dependent on military escalation, they become trapped in increasingly difficult-to-reverse decisions regardless of actual strategic outcome.
- This mechanism explains why markets repeatedly underestimate political escalation and why leaders make seemingly irrational decisions.
No, America and Israel Are Not Merging Their Militaries
John Aziz
- Claims that Congress plans to merge the U.S. and Israeli militaries are false; no such provision exists in the defense bill.
- Section 224 of the House Armed Services Committee draft has been misrepresented by multiple media outlets across the political spectrum.
- The author fact-checks the claim and explains what the bill actually contains rather than promoting a particular political stance.
Restoring a Hollowed-Out Western Alliance
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Western cultural amnesia threatens collective will to defend against external and internal threats, requiring restoration of shared civilizational memory rooted in Judeo-Christian heritage.
- Secretary of State Rubio echoed Trump's 2017 Warsaw question: without clarity on what civilization we defend, armies lack purpose and people lack motivation.
- Postmodern confusion has eroded Western elite consensus on the worth of defending liberal democratic society and its foundational values.
On PEN America and Exclusion by the Community of Inclusion
Jonathan Rosen from House of Rosen
- Publishing industry imposes purity tests discriminating against pro-Israel authors while amplifying anti-Jewish rhetoric and Blood Libels masked as activism.
- Literary agents explicitly exclude Zionist authors via MSWL profiles and publishers apply implicit Jewish book quotas, echoing historical Jewish exclusion tactics.
- Pro-Israel Jews face delegitimization as the 'wrong kind of Jew' while antisemitic authors and jihad-advocacy receive mainstream critical acclaim in upside-down industry dynamics.
AI · 7
Kimi K3, Xi’s Speech and the World AI Congress: Day One
Panda Perspectives
- Moonshot released Kimi K3, the largest open-weight-committed AI model, priced competitively at American levels.
- Xi Jinping delivered the first keynote by a Chinese head of state at the World AI Congress, showcasing a complete sovereign compute stack.
- China is demonstrating integrated AI infrastructure and model development capabilities that match or exceed Western offerings.
Anthropic, Adding It Up: The Judgment Calls
Cape Fear Advisors
- Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing signals IPO as soon as October 2026, with funding sources and investor base already indicating financial picture.
- Pre-filing analysis applies Rumsfeld's framework of known/unknown unknowns to anticipate regulatory and valuation dynamics.
- Company's compute spending and investor composition reveal operational sustainability questions before public prospectus arrives.
The Rule We Broke Was Ours (087)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- OpenAI's official prompting documentation holds up well in real-world use by professional coding agents, contradicting initial skepticism.
- Gap between written prompting standards and actual practice went undetected because exceptions weren't explicitly marked.
- Field testing of the manual revealed it was more effective than anticipated, shifting focus from grading documentation to self-auditing implementation gaps.
What should your business automate? I let AI decide, then built the skill so you can too
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Compared two AI automation tools (Codex and Fable) for identifying business process improvements, with different strengths in operational experience vs. strategic insight.
- Codex excelled at execution and user experience but found incremental problems in content handoffs, while Fable identified deeper systemic issues in story selection.
- The most valuable automation opportunity lies upstream in deciding which stories to tell, not in optimizing downstream production workflows.
How to Build a Second Brain with Claude Fable 5 🧠
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Claude Fable 5 produces generic outputs without context; adding a knowledge base transforms the model into personalized work reflecting user business and audience.
- Second brain concept uses plain markdown files stored on user disk that the model reads and maintains with minimal intervention, creating interconnected wikis.
- Knowledge base enables the model to cite sources, improve accuracy, and produce contextual outputs that match user-specific requirements and past decisions.
How a Blind Professor Saw Through His Students’ Cheating
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- A blind economics professor at Brown University detected widespread cheating by requiring an in-person final exam after noticing suspiciously perfect scores.
- The story illustrates the tension between AI-enabled academic dishonesty and the difficulty of scaling detection without discriminating against legitimate students.
- Professors face a dilemma: proctoring solutions that work may disadvantage disabled students or create surveillance concerns.
Will Claude Cowork get replaced (by ChatGPT)?
Khe Hy
- Rapid AI tool releases (Claude Cowork, ChatGPT for Work, Cursor) overwhelm knowledge workers; a framework of primitives helps avoid vendor lock-in and tool fatigue.
- Six AI primitives underpin most agentic workflows, allowing users to transfer work between platforms without relearning fundamentals.
- Claude Cowork demonstrates code-free agentic workflows, enabling Monday morning task automation like meeting prep and inbox management.