★ Priority · 14
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks... - Part II
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Citadel acquired Situational Awareness fund's portfolio in a major plot twist, with Lee Pol's major holdings jumping nearly 30% in a single day.
- Kenny G likely secured a discount on the deal, potentially netting over $1 billion in profits on the acquisition alone.
- The liquidation occurred just days before Lee Pol's wedding, highlighting the ruthless nature of high-stakes financial negotiations.
TGIF: I Am the Most Famous and Talked-About Person in the Country
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Anthony Fauci's released personal journal reveals self-congratulatory entries documenting celebrity meetings and favorable news coverage.
- Senator Rand Paul obtained and released the journal contents, exposing Fauci's diary-like documentation of his own celebrity status.
- The excerpt frames Fauci's journal as an 'Excel spreadsheet of compliments' focused on his own fame and media appearances.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Situational Awareness fund, a 2-year-old AI-focused fund, collapsed in July after being leveraged 4x with concentrated Memory stock longs and Software shorts.
- Fund unable to meet collateral calls and liquidated entire public equity portfolio, resulting in estimated $30bn loss and near-total capital wipeout.
- Massive market dislocation exposed risk of concentrated leveraged positions in hot sectors and fragility of AI-dominated investment strategies.
Sophie Cunninghamās Common Sense
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Political ideology often demands conformity to false narratives regardless of objective truth, as illustrated by 1984's 'two plus two equals five' parable.
- Tribal belonging pressures individuals to abandon reality rather than face social exclusion from in-groups.
- Sophie Cunningham examines how forced consensus on falsehoods eventually crumbles under the weight of reality.
BoJ gets FX vol off the sideline and into the game, + Oil, Warsh, and Important Credit Comment
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- Bank of Japan intervened in USD/JPY with a Price Keeping Operation as yen rallied over 5 handles.
- BoJ timed intervention after Fed signals, avoiding rate headwinds from potential Fed tightening.
- Risk assets bounced on BoJ action while momentum factor unwinding continues to hit large leveraged positions.
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks...
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- AI trade leverage bets are unwinding as fund managers face losses, with high-profile traders like Leopold Schnitzelburger's Situational Awareness suffering heavy drawdowns.
- South Korean margin calls affecting 4% of adults signal systemic leverage risks across markets tied to AI enthusiasm.
- Nasdaq decline of 12% since the Buffett meme top validates concerns about excessive leverage and momentum-driven speculation in AI stocks.
SHOULD YOU SHORT MEMORY STOCKS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- The GS High Beta Momentum Index lost 43% in one month, the worst performance since 2008, creating a potential short-selling opportunity.
- Cyclical short selling works best when switching from long positions after fundamental deterioration rather than betting against stable trends.
- Historical parallels to 2008 suggest that rate cuts and currency weakening can trigger momentum reversals in high-beta stocks.
a talk I gave at a quant bootcamp
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Korean KOSPI near oversold levels with Long/Short Momentum at -23% below 200-day average, historically a signal for tactical bounce.
- Semiconductor and memory stocks appear positioned for a bottom with setup favorable for August trading activity.
- Technical indicators suggest market positioning may be extreme enough to warrant near-term relief rallies.
The Limits of āAnti-Woke.ā Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Anti-woke crowdfunding platform GiveSendGo is providing a haven for controversial figures previously deplatformed, raising $25,000+ for a Cornell student exposed for antisemitic bias.
- This represents a shift in cancellation dynamics where traditional social media backlash paradoxically generates celebrity status and funding through alternative platforms.
- The emergence of permissive alternatives to mainstream platforms is reshaping how accountability and free speech operate in digital public discourse.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Post-Fed action: Gold Miners showing bullish reversal with stop at today's low; considering full position replacement if hammer holds.
- SMH (semiconductor ETF) displaying bullish hammer pattern; planning 15% long position entry with multi-week rally target.
- China markets showing textbook add patterns with higher lows; adding to BABA position at 5% total allocation.
Why Mamdani Is Asking My Mom to Pay His Pied-Ć -Terre Tax
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- NYC's new pied-Ć -terre tax (0.8%-6.5%) on high-end apartments owned by non-residents is catching primary residents in its net.
- Author's 81-year-old mother received unexpected $55,048 tax bill on her primary residence of 30 years due to tax law implementation errors.
- Mayor Mamdani's 'tax the rich' policy is misclassifying long-time primary residents as secondary property owners, causing unintended consequences.
HYPERSCALER COST OF CAPITAL IS RISING - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Hyperscaler CDS spreads widening as debt levels rise dramatically: Google +$93B, Meta +$47B, Microsoft +$25B in recent years.
- Oracle has highest CDS among hyperscalers with $167B debt; Nvidia's rising CDS puzzling given $80B cash balance and low debt.
- Rising high-yield CDS diverges from equal-weighted SPX strength, suggesting potential disconnect between credit and equity market assessments.
The Generosity of Love
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author reflects on personal experiences of love, forgiveness, and Jewish identity shaped by theatrical and spiritual encounters.
- Describes witnessing aftermath of October 7 massacre and maintaining compassion for both Jewish and non-Jewish communities affected.
- Explores intersection of Jewish values, personal struggle, and refusal to abandon loved ones despite distance and conflict.
Markets · 18
Situational Awareness Puts in the Bottom
Andrew Sarna
- Citadel's acquisition of Situational Awareness' entire portfolio triggered a recovery in AI stocks and broader equity markets.
- The market is pushing hyperscalers to rein in capital spending, with Microsoft's announced reduction in capex to $175B driving stock appreciation.
- Equal-weighted S&P 500 analysis shows majority of companies trading below 20x earnings despite concentration in expensive mega-cap tech stocks.
Robinhoodās Q2 2026: a 44% EPS beat, a $106M gain thatās already gone & why HOOD stock fell anyway š¹š; Revolut oā¦
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Robinhood delivered a 44% EPS beat in Q2 2026 but stock fell anyway, with a $106M one-time gain disappearing before earnings call.
- Revolut opened private market access to 75 million users and is positioning for a $150-200B IPO despite awkward timing around an OpenAI deal.
- Newsletter includes analysis of why strong earnings sometimes fail to support stock prices and fintech disruption in private markets.
š¬ New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry plans a post-mortem analysis of Big Tech earnings with critical commentary on recent market performance.
- Early visuals and analysis will be shared alongside SEC K and Q filings expected by end of day.
- Thread focuses on earnings-driven market signals and Burry's assessment of tech sector fundamentals.
Markets' Month End Bounce & Football Fight Exposes Europe's Anticapitalist Instincts
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- South Korea's Kospi fell 17% then rose 17% in a single session, with record chip rallies driven by leveraged liquidations and short squeezes rather than fundamentals.
- Apple's 6% fall revealed supply constraints in advanced chipmaking are the real signal, not the AI-driven noise in broader market rallies.
- Month-end bounce appears dysfunctional, driven by overleveraged position unwinding rather than meaningful economic improvement or demand recovery.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP peaked at $45B AUM with 439% net returns through June 2026 but collapsed in July under 4x leverage.
- Fund carried concentrated long positions in AI infrastructure and semiconductors (SK Hynix, CoreWeave, Nebius, Micron, Bloom Energy) hedged with software shorts that moved against it.
- Positions fell 35-47% in July, triggering margin calls from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, forcing block liquidation to Citadel Securities.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Cargill registered 500,000 soybean oil, bringing total registrations to 1,055 amid ongoing Renewable Volumetric Ethanol Ester expectations.
- ADM announced 25 million bushel capacity expansion across four plants, signaling multi-decade industry confidence over short-term market rumors.
- Commodity traders expect no near-term political threats to RVO policy; balance sheet fundamentals support sustained renewable fuel demand.
The Japan Intervention... (A Rant)
Garrett Baldwin
- Japan's Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan intervened in forex markets to buy yen and sell dollars after the currency hit 40-year lows.
- The yen surged from 164/USD to below 160/USD following intervention, marking a significant reversal of months of weakness.
- The timing coincides with semiconductor oversold conditions, suggesting coordinated macro policy support for risk assets amid market stress.
JETBLUE LEFT TAIL
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Warren Buffett's famous critique of airlines shows the industry has produced nearly 160 bankruptcies since the 1970s due to thin margins and high fixed costs.
- Airlines are scale-dependent businesses vulnerable to cannibalization as larger carriers acquire troubled competitors seeking operational efficiency.
- Polymarket's Institutional Desk is facilitating block trades for JetBlue bankruptcy event contracts on U.S. and international exchanges.
Big Tech, Adding It Up: The Trillion That Was Never Hidden
Cape Fear Advisors
- Big Tech companies' $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations is disclosed in regulatory filings, not hidden.
- The figure gained traction with misleading framing that treated disclosed information as concealment.
- Accurate reading of balance sheets shows the combined ~$3 trillion in debt and obligations are properly recorded.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Consensus remains bullish on equities despite rising red flags, creating risk as few market participants entertain the possibility the bull market has ended.
- Leverage risks in private credit and insurance sectors, combined with geopolitical tensions and inflation, threaten market stability.
- Earnings from major tech companies (Microsoft, Meta, Lam Research) show divergent signals: strong AI infrastructure demand offset by slowing hyperscaler growth.
Long Bonds Puke and More Selling
Andrew Sarna
- 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.23%, the highest since 2007, signaling potential end to 40 years of declining interest rates.
- Extreme dispersion in market performance: high-beta stocks down sharply while equal-weight S&P 500 and average stocks remain resilient, reflecting retail/hedge fund concentration.
- Goldman Sachs recorded largest three-day hedge fund de-grossing since November 2022 and largest sector long selling in technology since 2016 tracking began.
Chart of the Week - Leveraged ETF Trading
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Leveraged long vs. short ETF trading ratio surged to levels last seen during 2021 stimulus frenzy, flagging excessive bullish sentiment.
- Historical pattern shows this indicator does better identifying market bottoms than tops but has preceded several short-term peaks.
- Growing list of topping signals warrants caution and places burden of proof on bulls for continued upside.
Quiet Kev Allows Markets to Speak
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's strategy of allowing markets to speak resulted in a negative market reaction: 30-year yields hit 19-year highs, dollar fell, and inflation expectations rose.
- Market signals suggest investors doubt Warsh will deliver on his policy promises, with rare dissents from three FOMC voting members in the same direction.
- The cocktail of long yields rising, dollar falling, stocks falling, and breakevens rising indicates a lack of confidence in Warsh's 'quiet Fed' approach.
Will Warsh Crash The Stock Market?
Capital Flows
- The S&P 500 is down nearly 4% from all-time highs with the NASDAQ down 12%, driven by rising yields and macro liquidity shifts.
- Two clear drivers of selling pressure on equities are identified, requiring monitoring of when the downside pressure will subside.
- Changes in the largest capital flows and macro liquidity are critical signals that precede portfolio impacts and market reversals.
The 30-Year TIPS Hits 3%. And They're Still "Printing Money."
Garrett Baldwin
- The 30-year TIPS yield broke through 3%, indicating investors are demanding 3% annual real returns above inflation, signaling real yield compression concerns.
- Fed Chair Warsh's endorsement of AI at the 2:35 mark caused a market squeeze that reversed into a 'rug pull' decline, following a repeating pattern.
- The 10-year Treasury at 4.68% approaches the critical 4.75% level that has historically triggered stock market declines, signaling increased bond market stress.
Information Timing and Release: The Gaming of Guidance!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- SEC proposal to replace quarterly with semi-annual reporting and Fed chair's preference for reduced market guidance both reduce information frequency, affecting price volatility and market efficiency.
- Less frequent information disclosure can increase skew and jumps in stock prices, with implications for market structure and investor protection.
- Timing and frequency of information release fundamentally shape market dynamics and should be carefully evaluated for unintended consequences.
You might soon be able to buy futures and options on your favorite sports team
Bob Pisani
- CME plans to launch futures and options on FutureSports Performance Indexes (FSPI) tracking team and athlete performance as tradeable assets.
- FSPI indexes convert official league statistics into rules-based benchmarks with base values starting at 7,500, moving real-time based on game results.
- New derivatives market will allow retail and institutional investors to trade sports team performance similar to equity indexes.
Note:
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Federal Reserve decision and Kevin Warsh's news conference warrant comprehensive analysis of policy implications.
- Market recap and economic outlook require assessment of Fed messaging and its impact on asset valuations.
- Geopolitical factors like South Korea tensions may influence market positioning and risk management strategies.
Culture · 15
4 in 10 Cancers Are Preventable: Here Is How
Zenith Within by Dr.Ā Sara Redondo
- The WHO's cancer research arm published data showing approximately 4 in 10 cancer diagnoses worldwide are traceable to modifiable risk factors.
- New analysis from 185 countries and 36 cancer types ranks specific exposures by their actual impact on global cancer burden.
- This diagnostic approach provides clearer prioritization than previous bundled prevention advice, enabling more targeted interventions.
A ship called Dignity
Roger Mitchell from As In The Lake
- Author laments the commercialization of football and argues that treating sport as an asset class inevitably leads to financial market dynamics.
- The industry celebrated World Cup commercial success but is now 'shocked' at the natural progression of financialization and PE involvement.
- The piece critiques the industry for failing to learn lessons from NCAA disruption and the failed European Super League about unbridled capitalism's consequences.
Akhenaten's hips, the dawn of the ... post-oral society !?, medieval people loved their children, the wisdom of Diā¦
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Author explores whether society is becoming 'post-oral' with declining daily speech, not just post-literate as commonly discussed.
- Research from multiple countries shows people are talking significantly less each day, measured through randomized audio sampling devices.
- The emerging post-oral society has implications for culture and politics that extend beyond the well-known post-literate trend.
In praise of the Midwest
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- The Midwest offers an underrated quality of life with affordable leisure activities, clean natural environments, and accessible local amenities.
- The American Dream is functioning more equitably in the Midwest for both upper and working classes compared to other U.S. regions after decades of decline.
- The region provides relaxed contentment and economic balance that has become rare across the broader United States.
Vivid Thoughts from an Outback Steakhouse
Garrett Baldwin
- Restaurant chains face severe headwinds with dramatically reduced foot traffic; Outback Steakhouse and Bonefish locations show alarming lack of customers and staff.
- Thin margins and high fixed costs in casual dining create unsustainable math for many establishments to survive current market conditions.
- Restaurants are forced to do significantly more with less staffing, raising questions about operational viability.
How to Substitute Cilantro
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Cilantro substitution works by matching its core flavor profiles: pungent, citrusy, and slightly crunchy.
- Scallions plus lemon or lime zest effectively replaces cilantro while avoiding added liquid from juice.
- Understanding ingredient flavor components allows substitution even when you dislike the original ingredient.
Privilege isn't recognized here
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Human fairness instincts are deeply rooted and operate beyond rational economic calculation, as demonstrated by ultimatum game experiments.
- People punish unfair behavior even when it costs them money, revealing an innate commitment to societal norms over personal gain.
- Understanding that life involves repeated games and reputation matters is only part of the explanation; a deeper sense of justice motivates enforcement of fairness.
Myth vs. Science: What Really Relieves Body Tightness
Zenith Within by Dr.Ā Sara Redondo
- Body tightness is primarily a fascia problem, not a muscle problem, analogous to how wood quality matters as much as strings in a violin.
- Common claims about stretching and foam rolling reversing tightness overstates what research actually demonstrates.
- Understanding fascia mechanics requires rethinking conventional approaches to flexibility and body tension.
Your belly fat isn't a willpower problem
Parent Fit Club
- Belly fat retention is primarily a cortisol/stress hormone problem, not a calorie deficit or willpower issue.
- Conventional approaches of eating less and exercising more actually worsen cortisol levels and perpetuate the problem.
- Sustainable fat loss requires addressing what foods are eaten and training duration rather than pursuing caloric restriction.
The plastic in your morning routine is quietly lowering your testosterone (Dr. Shanna Swan's 30-year warning)
Strong After 40
- Sperm counts in Western men declined 52.4% between 1973 and 2011, with global decline now accelerating at 2.6% annually.
- Chemicals in modern plastics are identified as the primary driver of reproductive biology changes through daily exposure.
- Morning routine products likely represent highest single-source chemical exposure in typical male daily exposure patterns.
No, Then Yes
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- The author was invited to both speak and DJ at a financial conference but experienced poor communication and was eventually ghosted by organizers.
- After expressing initial enthusiasm, the author adopted a philosophical perspective that things happen for a reason and prefers clear communication over being ignored.
- The author reflects on how being upfront rejected would have been preferable to being silently ignored after initial interest.
The $12 Cup of Nothing
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Consumers repeatedly fall for luxury branding experiments, perceiving ordinary products as premium when packaged with appropriate marketing language and presentation.
- Famous examples include Erewhon's $12 tap water garnering luxury reviews and Payless shoes selling for $200-600 under the fake 'Palessi' brand.
- The psychology reveals how perception and narrative override actual product quality in consumer valuation decisions.
How the Creator Economy Took Over Media
The Prof G Pod
- 57% of Gen Z aspire to be creators, but only a tiny fraction achieve real income sustainability in the creator economy.
- High-profile successes like Derek Thompson and Oliver Darcy demonstrate that the top tier of independent writing can exceed traditional media salaries.
- The creator economy has fundamentally altered media structure, though distribution and monetization remain highly concentrated at the top.
Roman Holiday
Primal Gourmet
- Rome delivers magical travel experiences with centuries-old monuments, cobblestone streets, and world-class cuisine across three memorable days.
- Summer heatwaves require practical planningābring water bottles and fansābut the city's food scene justifies enduring the heat.
- Curated restaurant recommendations with Google Maps integration help travelers avoid overhyped Instagram traps and discover authentic Roman dining.
This Israeli Doctor Flew All Night to Rwanda to Save a Babyās Life
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Gerard Misago's uncle inspired his medical career through a single malaria treatment encounter in rural Rwanda, demonstrating influence of mentorship.
- An Israeli pediatric cardiologist flew to Rwanda to save Misago's patient's life, illustrating international medical collaboration and humanitarian commitment.
- Misago's path from rural health center to pediatric cardiology fellowship showcases persistence and the critical impact of medical professionals in underserved regions.
Macro · 11
Everyone's Invited This Morning (Money Printer Pro) to Learn How the "Market Game" Works
Garrett Baldwin
- Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in currency markets, fueling a rebound in equity momentum on Thursday.
- The live briefing at 8:30 AM will discuss how Japan's intervention relates to broader market plumbing and finance mechanics.
- Full morning market report with momentum readings remains behind a paid subscription paywall.
The New Fed
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is abandoning the old playbook of forward guidance and press conferences in favor of letting market forces do tightening work.
- The Fed strategy relies on steeper yield curves and higher bond volatility while keeping short-term rates anchored via repo liquidity.
- US Treasury yields appear 100-200 basis points too low given the overheated economy, and a realignment could eventually hammer stocks despite near-term rate pause benefits.
Midweek Macro Note: The Dead Cat Dragon...?, a JPY Puck Save, BoJ Decision
MacroEdge Research
- KOSPI and Nikkei rallied hard off oversold technical levels after South Korea announced $14bn sovereign wealth fund injection into AI, data center, and tech equities.
- Market bounce exhibits classic 2000/2022-style countertrend rally characteristics driven by liquidations and short squeezes rather than fundamental recovery.
- Bank of Japan rate decision pending; broader market structure remains challenged by parabolic topping patterns despite recent relief rallies.
How Long A Durable Thing Stays Durable?
šļø Polymath Investor
- J. Richard Gott's principle estimates the lifespan of structures like the Berlin Wall using the random timing of observation and simple statistical logic.
- The principle predicted the Wall would stand 3-24 more years with 50% confidence when observed in 1969; it fell in November 1989, validating the approach.
- This framework applies to understanding durable competitive advantages and how long business moats persist in changing markets.
The Family Fight
Peruvian Bull
- The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents demanding rate hikesāthe first hawkish dissents since September 2016.
- Regional Fed presidents from Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas believe current policy is insufficiently restrictive for inflation control.
- Fed Chair's resistance to rate hikes suggests a different policy philosophy than the explicitly hawkish successor many predicted, positioning the chair as Volcker-like.
July 2026 - A turning point in the AI supercycle
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- July 2026 represents a significant market turning point comparable to March 2000, March 2008, and January 2020, with the equity bull market likely topped.
- Convergence of AI deceleration, Iran tensions, and Fed policy are creating stagflationary conditions that will drive increased market turbulence.
- AI-led earnings growth that sustained the bull market is stalling, leaving equities vulnerable without this primary fundamental driver.
Japan & India: The China Variable
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Japan and India share a unique 1,400-year relationship free of territorial disputes or historical grievances, making them a rare partnership with significant economic potential.
- The partnership combines complementary strengths: Japan's abundant capital and manufacturing expertise with India's labor resources and software capabilities.
- China's strategic actions and regional power dynamics significantly shape the future trajectory and success of Japan-India economic and geopolitical alignment.
Real yields should be higher
Macro Is Dead
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as non-negotiable, rejecting market perceptions of Fed tolerance for higher inflation.
- The Fed is moving away from forward guidance, reducing the need for extensive communication schedules and relying more on market discipline.
- Warsh's strategy emphasizes allowing markets to price-discover rather than using Fed communication to guide expectations.
The Importance of Being Obsolencent
Craig Tindale
- Western economists misinterpret China's state-directed strategic competition as market distortions, viewing excess capacity and low returns rather than long-term capability acquisition.
- The fundamental paradigm shift: China treats production as power, scale as leverage, and technological capability as sovereignty, while the West assumes markets moderate geopolitical rivalry.
- Mainstream economic models based on market-centric assumptions and trade integration fail to explain a system of continuous strategic competition where commercial and national strategy are inseparable.
The Bond Bear Market Isn't Over
Prometheus Research
- Persistent monetary policy pressures suggest the Fed may need to hike rates despite stable economic conditions, as labor markets tighten and inflation measures rebound.
- Treasuries face continued headwinds with yields under pressure to drift higher; hiking cycles historically offer worst risk-adjusted returns for fixed income.
- US fixed income likely to deliver negative or poor returns unless disrupted by equity sell-offs or oil price-driven demand destruction.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Fed held rates unchanged despite three 'Heartland Hawks' voting to hike, citing bond market tightening as doing monetary policy's work.
- 10-year Treasury yields jumped to near 4.7% and 30-year hit 5.22% after FOMC announcement; stock markets suffered largest decline since April 2025.
- Fed's reliance on market-driven tightening rather than rate hikes appears insufficient as financial conditions deteriorate post-announcement.
Politics · 11
By Popular Demand: The End of the American Empire? Why the Iran War Is Slipping Beyond Washingtonās Control
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran war is shifting away from Washington's direct control as regional actors pursue independent strategic agendas.
- Oil markets remain under pressure and Saudi Arabia has announced a new multinational Red Sea maritime coalition.
- The strategic center of gravity in the Middle East is fundamentally shifting, potentially redefining America's dominant military position.
Geopolitical Checkers
PAIDDoomberg
- Political leaders in Washington, London, and Brussels are navigating geopolitical crises without adequately considering how opponents will respond.
- The article compares sound strategic thinking (like chess) to current political decision-making, which dismisses careful analysis of adversary responses.
- Leadership appears to disregard how their moves might trigger counterresponses, operating with a flawed understanding of strategy.
Paris Was Trashed After Winning A Championship. Madrid Wasn't. And The Difference Is Immigration.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Madrid's 2-million-person World Cup celebration resulted in only 7 arrests and no serious incidents, while Paris's Champions League victory sparked riots, 890 arrests, and widespread looting.
- The stark difference in public behavior between the two cities is attributed to differences in immigration and social integration patterns.
- Spain's organized, peaceful celebration contrasts sharply with France's need for thousands of police officers to manage expected violence.
Anthony Fauci Owes Americans the Truth
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Dr. Anthony Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment 111 times before a Senate subcommittee investigating federal spending.
- Fauci played a central role in pandemic policies that closed businesses, disrupted education, and restricted family access to dying patients.
- His invocation of constitutional protection against self-incrimination suggests potential criminal liability for his actions during the pandemic.
How the WHO used Hollywood in their COVID Cover-Up
PAIDWinston Marshall
- WHO coordinated a centralized campaign during COVID using celebrities for positive publicity, contradicting claims of organic grassroots movement.
- Celebrity selfie videos and late-night show appearances were part of WHO's deliberate high-profile strategy to win public favor.
- Author Winston Marshall, who was behind the scenes during the pandemic, documents that the WHO explicitly coordinated celebrity participation.
Boy George Sings: "You Say Genocide, I Say War"
John Aziz
- Boy George's song 'We Will Dance Again' addresses October 7 and Gaza war, stating 'You say genocide, I say war' and concluding 'I stand with the Jews.'
- The song faced accusations of being pro-war and genocide denial from publications like The Guardian and The Independent.
- Remembering October 7, supporting Israel, and recognizing the conflict as a war are not inherently contradictory to humanitarian concerns or Palestinian support.
How to Undermine Religious Freedom While Singing Its Praises
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Progressive organizations claim patriotic devotion to religious liberty while simultaneously undermining Trump's Religious Liberty Commission efforts.
- The contradiction between praising First Amendment religious freedom and denigrating good-faith safeguarding mechanisms appears unconvincing or despotic.
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali critiques the Center for American Progress's position as inconsistent with its stated commitment to religious liberty protections.
China Deepens Military Support for Iran
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- China is reportedly supplying Iran with 300-400 advanced shoulder-fired air defense missiles during active regional conflict.
- This marks a shift from China's historical preference for quiet military support to visible transfers during wartime.
- Advanced surface-to-air missiles threaten both military aircraft and commercial aviation plus U.S. regional logistics networks.
The End of the American Empire? Why the Iran War Is Slipping Beyond Washingtonās Control
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Iran conflict is expanding beyond U.S. control with Saudi Arabia, Houthis, and Ukraine all independently shaping operations in the region.
- America's post-Cold War strategic assumptionsāforward bases, air superiority, precision strike, and technological dominanceāare being tested and found insufficient.
- Regional actors are increasingly making autonomous decisions, fundamentally changing the nature of American power projection in the Middle East.
Suddenly, Jews Are To Blame For Climate Change?
John Aziz
- Author documents viral antisemitic conspiracy theories blaming Jews and Israel for climate change.
- False claims that Israeli-funded data centers and nuclear programs cause climate change, ignoring that nuclear energy is carbon-neutral.
- Compares modern social media antisemitism to medieval anti-Jewish pogrom rhetoric, highlighting dangerous spread of unhinged narratives online.
Our Civic Martyrs Deserve to Be Remembered
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Western civilization has lost the institutional practice of remembering martyrs killed for embodying its values, unlike the Catholic Church's formalized beatification process.
- Terrorist attacks in Europe are increasingly treated as isolated crimes rather than ideological threats, enabling collective amnesia about victims and perpetrators.
- A civilization that cannot remember those murdered for its cultural inheritance gradually loses confidence to defend either, weakening civilizational resilience.
AI · 8
The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund collapsed amid hubris-fueled over-leveraging and failed predictions.
- OpenAI slashed prices 80% under competitive pressure while Anthropic faced cybersecurity breaches and researchers discovered new jailbreaking vulnerabilities.
- A U.S. government map mislabeled every African country and was created using OpenAI tools, highlighting AI deployment risks in government work.
Intelligence is Not The Bottleneck
Taylor Pearson
- Intelligence is not the primary bottleneck in business value creation; the challenge lies in escaping entrenched ways of thinking.
- AI implementation for executive recruiting focuses on streamlining fulfillment and enabling firms to handle more clients per employee.
- Building an 'AI Business Brain' requires rethinking operational processes rather than simply acquiring more processing power or intelligence.
Cowork comes to the Cloud
Khe Hy
- Claude's Cowork desktop feature lacks cloud accessibility, limiting collaboration when away from laptop.
- Evolution of AI progresses from MapQuest-style search through Maps-style chat toward ambient collaboration.
- Cowork represents new paradigm where AI actively collaborates on projects rather than just answering questions.
The Beheading of Books and the Humanitarian Problem
Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast
- LLM builders are physically destroying rare and out-of-print books using guillotine cutters to rapidly convert ink into digital assets for AI training.
- Digitizing rare books without preserving the physical originals represents centralized control rather than true preservation of human knowledge.
- Ink on paper serves as an unhackable, decentralized, offline backup of information that cannot be censored or manipulated by centralized systems.
Model Behavior: Taylor Lorenz
Substack
- Substack launches 'Model Behavior' series interviewing writers and creators about their AI use and creative practices.
- Taylor Lorenz discusses adjusting writing style to avoid sounding AI-generated and defending her use of adverbs and common phrases.
- Series explores range of perspectives from anti-AI purists to power users, examining how AI impacts creator identity and livelihoods.
Dario takes it on the chin
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing backlash for opposing open-weight AI models while company destroys rare books for data distillation.
- Most of AI industry signed letter supporting open-weight models; Amodei's resistance viewed as tone-deaf and self-serving.
- Recent events eroded goodwill Amodei had built, with critics including David Sacks calling out perceived hypocrisy and contradiction.
The Benchmark You Already Own (095)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- An AI model tasked with removing a hardcoded password from source code relocated it to a command-line flag default, which still exposed the secret via the --help output.
- The failure demonstrates how AI can technically complete tasks while creating new security vulnerabilities through unintended side effects and exposure pathways.
- Security issues with AI require precise mechanisms of failure analysis rather than dismissing errors as general messes, enabling better safety discipline going forward.
I Built The Token Saver Skill To Cut My Token Use By 90%. Here Is What It Can And Cannot Do For You.
Nate from Nateās Substack
- Author built a Token Saver skill that reduced token usage by 90% after discovering 3.77 billion tokens consumed in a single session, with 95.73% flagged as reused input.
- Reused tokens aren't necessarily wastefulāthey preserve continuity across conversations and may qualify for provider cache discounts, making context retention valuable despite the cost.
- The tool addresses the problem that AI usage meters can't distinguish between necessary context carryover and wasteful redundancy, requiring manual investigation and optimization.
Energy · 8
A plan for a new energy system
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- China's 2026-2030 Five Year Plan targets a clean, low-carbon energy system with 25% non-fossil fuels and 17% carbon intensity reduction by 2030.
- The plan emphasizes green hydrogen, ammonia, and ethanol as strategic alternatives to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon footprint.
- Key objectives include energy self-sufficiency and carbon peaking before 2030, reflecting China's thermoeconomic strategy for geopolitical resilience.
Cushing Is Approaching The Operational Floor
PAIDTracy (Chi) from Renegade Resources
- Cushing crude oil inventories are approaching 16M barrels operational floor with 18.599M barrels as of July 24.
- Weekly draws of 700K-800K barrels suggest 4-5 weeks until reaching operational minimum based on straight-line math.
- The 20M barrel threshold is a psychological placeholder; the real mechanical floor was determined from primary data analysis.
Abqaiq Damaged, Oil Price Weakness
Bison Insights
- Abqaiq oil facility damage is being discussed in context of recent oil market dynamics and potential upside surprises.
- Recent oil price weakness appears inexplicable given geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.
- Analysis explores the disconnect between market pricing and fundamental supply-demand factors in the energy sector.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Seaborne coking coal prices weakened with Australian PLV hard coking coal falling $1/t to $219/t FOB.
- Indian buyers remain well-covered with healthy inventories and monsoon-driven steel demand weakness limiting purchases.
- Over 200,000 tonnes of unsold tier-one cargoes available signals persistent oversupply in physical markets.
The Four Seas Cataclysm: When the Worldās Arteries Burn and the Silence Screams Louder Than the Shocks
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Escalating drone strikes on LNG facilities near Suez Canal signal a major energy crisis expanding from three seas to four seas.
- Global political leaders remain disengaged despite metastasizing conflict threatening world energy arteries; markets dangerously underestimating risk.
- Energy balance sheet metrics alone insufficient to assess price risk; systemic supply disruption imminent without intervention.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-24-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude inventories fell 7.2 MMB and remain 7% below seasonal average, approaching 2018 lows with potential for further 10 MMB decline.
- Fair value model estimates WTI at $100+ per barrel despite current $84 spot price, indicating market underpricing relative to fundamentals.
- SPR continues releases at slowing rate; US crude imports remain weak as Venezuelan supply cannot offset OPEC losses.
Three Great Oil Companies - and One That the Market Has Missed
Bison Insights
- Three Canadian oil producers (Tamarack Valley, Headwater Exploration, Cardinal Energy) have outperformed through scale, discovery, and low-decline production strategies.
- A fourth Canadian oil company with similar fundamentalsācomparable cash-flow margins, development costs, reserve life, and production volumesātrades at significant discount to peers.
- Market undervaluation of the unnamed producer may be rooted in past governance concerns despite current competitive positioning and strategic alignment.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Matt Warder capitalized on met coal and thermal coal selloffs, adding 60 basis points BTU and 25 basis points CNR to positions.
- Met coal prices returned to expected $220 levels, indicating no fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics despite recent volatility.
- Sub-$10 METC presents tactical opportunity but trader sees no change in underlying met or thermal market fundamentals warranting additional action.