Substack Dashboard

Updated Sunday, September 20 2026 · 06:15 AM CDT · 65 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 12

WHERE THE STORM BREAKS.

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Stock market breadth is oversold to levels near the March 2026 bottom, potentially setting up an upside resolution pending a catalyst.
  • Positioning remains crowded in consensus trades creating a minefield of risk; sentiment is plunging across markets.
  • Major opportunities exist for both long and short positions in Q4 2026 with multiple thematic setups lighting up on technical scans.
Sep 20, 05:28 AMRead on Substack →

Tough Love: My Friend Thinks Jews Worship Satan

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Friendship tested when best friend shares antisemitic conspiracy theories including claims that Jews practice Satan worship.
  • Writer struggles with balancing tolerance for political disagreement against concern about increasingly extreme and hateful content.
  • Question of where the line should be drawn between respecting differing opinions and recognizing when friendships have become untenable due to hate speech.
Sep 20, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

Who Verified Gaza?

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • Prominent Gazan journalist Motaz Azaiza has been extensively platformed by major Western media outlets including CNN, BBC, and The New York Times.
  • Questions arise about whether reporting on Gaza is independently verified or relies heavily on unvetted materials from sources within a restricted information environment.
  • Western media has shown insufficient skepticism about free speech conditions in Gaza and independence of key eyewitness sources used in coverage.
Sep 20, 12:18 AMRead on Substack →

Positioning in Oil and Nasdaq Is All Wrong

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Oil positioning has shifted dramatically with investors fading the rally from $85 to $105, evidenced by short covering and reduced commitments rather than speculative demand.
  • Physical oil markets remain tight with Dubai swaps sticky bid and Dated Brent trading at premiums exceeding Russia-Ukraine 2022 levels, indicating structural supply constraints.
  • Shanghai crude futures initially spiked then corrected but landed barrels in China remain notably bid, suggesting domestic demand strength persists despite price pullbacks.
Sep 19, 10:54 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Multiple geopolitical flashpoints are escalating simultaneously including Iran peace negotiations via Qatar and Pakistan, fuel shortages in France and US, and NATO-Russia military posturing around the Baltics.
  • Cross-asset volatility appears abnormally low despite elevated geopolitical risks, suggesting markets are underpricing tail risks.
  • Baltic/Kaliningrad military activity and Russian rhetoric about testing NATO Article 5 raise concerns about potential false flag incidents or escalation.
Sep 19, 01:07 PMRead on Substack →

BoJ; hawkish enough

PRIORITY
Mark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
  • Bank of Japan broke its six-monthly rate-hike cycle by hiking in September for the first time ever, signaling all future meetings are now live for potential policy moves.
  • December meeting is priced at 63% probability for another hike while January is essentially fully priced for a 1.50% rate, representing significant hawkish repricing.
  • Governor Ueda adopted 'new phase' terminology from Financial Stability Director Takaichi, framing rate hikes within structural economic transition rather than temporary tightening.
Sep 19, 12:31 PMRead on Substack →

What Mark Zuckerberg Wants. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Mark Zuckerberg controls platforms used by 2.3 billion people—more than one-third of Earth's population—giving him unprecedented power over global communication.
  • A deep-dive profile based on interviews with dozens of sources including Zuckerberg's family reveals the mind and motivations behind one of history's most powerful tech leaders.
  • Meta's valuation roughly adds a zero every presidential term, reflecting explosive growth in user bases across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
Sep 19, 04:31 AMRead on Substack →

MACRO AND THE PRO LABOUR TRADE

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Historical macro indicators like deteriorating NIIP and elevated net worth-to-GDP ratios have signaled crashes before but remain imperfect predictors.
  • Older investors' fear of new market dynamics stems from experiencing multiple crises (1991-2016), making them inherently defensive.
  • Macro doomsters extrapolating from 2016 warning signs miss the evolution of asset valuations and changing market structures over the past decade.
Sep 18, 10:18 AMRead on Substack →

The Radical Right’s Plan to Transform Conservatism. Plus . . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • A network of wealthy donors and activists centered on Charles Haywood is pushing radical conservative ideas shaped by racial grievance and anti-liberal democracy sentiment.
  • Once-fringe concepts are now gaining influence within mainstream conservative institutions, think tanks, and even reaching Vice President J.D. Vance.
  • The conservative movement's adoption of a 'no enemies to the right' philosophy represents an abandonment of internal boundary-setting and traditional conservative principles.
Sep 18, 10:01 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Alibaba (BABA) surged 4.4% with October $120 call options doubling in value within a day from the previous day's purchase.
  • The trading strategy captured outsized gains by selling half position at 2x to make the trade 'free' while maintaining exposure to an upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.
  • Momentum in Chinese equities remains high with technical strength supporting continuation bets on positive trade policy signals.
Sep 18, 09:46 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Bank of Japan hiked rates as expected but faced two dissents from dovish board members, signaling potential political constraints on future tightening.
  • USD appears set for further strength despite BOJ action, with the Fed's trajectory supporting dollar bullishness in the near term.
  • EUR/USD weakness extends beyond energy constraints to broader structural issues including Saudi energy policy shifts toward the US.
Sep 18, 09:18 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • EQR AU stock nearly doubled after initial 'Memory vs Tungsten' analysis, driven by capital cycle dynamics and index inclusion.
  • Tungsten stock re-rated from 2x to 4x EBITDA as management execution was proven despite flat commodity prices.
  • Author sold entire position after index inclusion at peak volume, recognizing limit-order exit opportunity despite upside potential.
Sep 18, 07:52 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 11

AI-Generated Movie Star Has a Total Meltdown on TV

Ted Gioia
  • Tilly Norwood, the first AI-generated movie star introduced in July 2025, signed approximately 60 NDAs worth $10-50 million each before a major public relations failure on live television.
  • Major Hollywood studios were eager to exploit AI talent to eliminate actor demands, with the company behind Tilly planning to develop twenty more AI movie stars.
  • Tilly's televised breakdown suggests AI actors face uncanny valley challenges and unpredictable failure modes that could derail the industry's ambitions to replace human performers.
Sep 19, 02:32 PMRead on Substack →

Eat Like It’s 1899: Cream of broccoli soup with a crunch

Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
  • Bright green broccoli and pea soup with crispy tofu provides 335 calories, 18g protein, and 10g fiber per bowl.
  • Simple one-pot recipe takes about 20 minutes and uses whole foods to avoid ultra-processed ingredients.
  • Recipe is flexible with substitutions (any broth, any tofu, dairy or non-dairy cream) making it accessible and repeatable.
Sep 19, 10:08 AMRead on Substack →

“I liked imagining us listening to the same song at the same time. It was the only piece of connection I had left.”

The Substack Post
  • Spotify direct messages became a lifeline for a parent separated from a stepdaughter after an unexpected divorce.
  • Shared music playlists enabled continued emotional connection when direct communication was forbidden.
  • Personal narrative illustrates how digital platforms inadvertently facilitate human relationships during family trauma.
Sep 19, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

Soupe au Pistou

Chris Kimball's Substack
  • Soupe au Pistou is a flexible French formula soup using late summer vegetables with water base and pistou pesto topping.
  • Traditional recipe emphasizes fresh vegetable prep and minimal cooking time (15 minutes) to preserve delicate flavors.
  • Water-based cooking preserves vegetable character better than supermarket stock, allowing pistou and fresh ingredients to shine.
Sep 19, 07:04 AMRead on Substack →

You Only Have One Penis

Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
  • The phrase 'you only have one penis' encodes wisdom about resource allocation—focus on highest-leverage activities rather than spreading yourself across low-impact work.
  • High-work-ethic founders often sabotage their own scalability by insisting on doing all productive work themselves instead of building management layers.
  • Delegation and organizational leverage multiply impact far more effectively than individual effort, especially for those with natural grinding ability.
Sep 18, 08:10 PMRead on Substack →

Stylish glassware, a gift-worthy potluck tote, and my office chair upgrade

Amanda Hesser from Homeward
  • Home renovation and interior design choices involve trade-offs between owning real estate versus travel and flexibility, with some readers reconsidering the home investment thesis.
  • Glassware and home furnishings become key aesthetic decisions when designing livable spaces, with artisanal mouth-blown pieces offering organic shapes over mass-produced alternatives.
  • Substack readers debate whether fixed assets like homes represent optimal life investments compared to portable skills and experiential wealth like sailing and travel.
Sep 18, 05:02 PMRead on Substack →

Healthy Homemade Snickers Bars

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Recipe combines protein powder, monkfruit sweetener, and healthy fats to create a macro-friendly homemade candy bar alternative.
  • Caramel layer uses minimal ingredients (butter, sweetener, cream) with peanuts and chocolate coating mimicking commercial Snickers bar structure.
  • Detailed instructions account for sweetener type (allulose preferred over erythritol) and temperature control to achieve proper caramel consistency without burning.
Sep 18, 04:33 PMRead on Substack →

White Liberal Parents

The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
  • Author argues white liberal parents represent a foundational ideology eroding Western civilization and traditional values.
  • Claims this group has systematically replaced free speech and community duty with identity-focused ideology.
  • Connects cultural shift to political outcomes, citing UK Prime Minister Starmer's description of Britain as 'an island of strangers'.
Sep 18, 12:08 PMRead on Substack →

John Galliano, the Met, and the Case for Beauty Beyond the Artist

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • John Galliano's 2010-2011 racist outbursts were inexcusable and warranted immediate consequences including dismissal from Dior.
  • After 15 years of rehabilitation, public apology, and changed conduct, permanent exclusion from cultural institutions may be excessive and contradicts principles of restoration.
  • The debate centers on whether accountability demands lifetime banishment or whether genuine contrition and behavioral change should allow for professional rehabilitation.
Sep 18, 12:00 PMRead on Substack →

The Demonisation Of Ed Sheeran

John Aziz
  • Ed Sheeran faced widespread online vilification and abandonment by tour support acts after dropping Macklemore, with depicting him using antisemitic caricatures and violent imagery.
  • The backlash represents an unusual and intense level of public demonization, with coordinated messaging across social media.
  • The author questions whether this response is proportionate to the underlying situation.
Sep 18, 09:27 AMRead on Substack →

They Took the Chemical Out of Your Dress Shirt. Then They Went After the Suit.

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Non-iron dress shirts use resin cures that release formaldehyde, a known human carcinogen, but U.S. clothing labels are not required to disclose this.
  • European dress shirt manufacturers discovered formaldehyde-free alternatives, enabling American startups to compete with premium European brands at lower prices.
  • Lack of labeling transparency meant consumers couldn't make informed choices about chemical exposure in everyday clothing.
Sep 18, 07:11 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 9

Nobody Will Slow Down on AI (A Game Theory View)

🗒️ Polymath Investor
  • AI industry faces a prisoner's dilemma where no single player can afford to slow down AI development even if all would benefit from collective restraint, referencing John Nash equilibrium game theory.
  • The structure mirrors the bar scene from 'A Beautiful Mind'—any actor who unilaterally pauses AI advancement while competitors accelerate will lose competitive advantage irreversibly.
  • Nash equilibrium suggests the rational outcome is continued acceleration of AI development despite potential systemic risks, as defection is individually optimal.
Sep 19, 05:01 PMRead on Substack →

Top three ways Dario Amodei has blown his credibility in seven days

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Dario Amodei selected biased monitoring organizations (METR and Accenture) to oversee Anthropic despite calling for industry-wide AI pacing.
  • Anthropic is planning a wet biology lab without standard institutional review board oversight while deploying unreliable AI systems.
  • Amodei's public positioning as an AI safety advocate contradicts Anthropic's actual expansion into high-risk domains with minimal external governance.
Sep 19, 09:59 AMRead on Substack →

YWR: Asset Management as a Service (the YWR MCP)

PAID
Erik@YWR
  • Robinhood and Interactive Brokers now offer Model Context Protocol (MCP) tools enabling AI agents like Claude and ChatGPT to trade directly via API.
  • Agentic trading through AI enables new business models such as asset management as a subscription service rather than traditional fee-based management.
  • LLM tools connected through MCP are transforming chatbots into autonomous agents capable of portfolio rebalancing, stock screening, and automated strategy execution.
Sep 19, 08:46 AMRead on Substack →

The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part IV: The Big 5 Hyperscalers & the Missing $3 Trillion

Michael Burry
  • The five hyperscaler tech companies are entering a new paradigm that requires deeper financial analysis than Wall Street's sell-side coverage currently provides.
  • Wall Street analysts systematically overestimate price targets at market tops, with the gap widening most dramatically when stocks are in favor (illustrated by LULU example).
  • CEO and CFO certifications on 10-K and 10-Q filings carry criminal penalties, making this financial data more reliable than typical consensus estimates for evaluating hyperscaler valuations.
Sep 18, 11:22 PMRead on Substack →

The real reason Trump is standing behind AI — and the latest example of why that might turn out to be a bad idea

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Trump downplays AI fears and resists regulation for economic reasons, prioritizing growth over safety.
  • Author warns that inaccurate AI-generated information could trigger accidental conflicts, citing testimony to U.S. Senate.
  • Highlights pattern of economic interests overriding risk management in AI development.
Sep 18, 02:52 PMRead on Substack →

Oppenheimer, Inc.

Scott Galloway
  • Young AI researcher resignation from frontier lab triggers global panic, drawing commentary from former presidents and lab leaders.
  • Parallels to Oppenheimer era: questions whether similar figures should be allowed to commercialize transformative but potentially dangerous technologies.
  • Geoffrey Hinton's Nobel Prize and AI risk framework illustrate tension between short-term and long-term AI dangers.
Sep 18, 12:24 PMRead on Substack →

Wake up, people. What we should actually fear, near term, is not so much rogue superintelligence as unleashed agen…

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Near-term AI risks are more immediate than distant superintelligence concerns—focus should be on unleashed AI agents causing harm now.
  • Recent incidents demonstrate the real dangers of current AI system deployment without adequate safeguards.
  • Mainstream media and policymakers are largely ignoring the most pressing AI safety challenges in favor of abstract future scenarios.
Sep 18, 11:29 AMRead on Substack →

QNT: The 100× Question

Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
  • Quantum computing could unlock enormous value by solving expensive computational problems for pharmaceutical, manufacturing, and chemical industries more efficiently than classical methods.
  • Quantinuum (QNT) represents a significant quantum computing opportunity that could generate outsized returns if customers adopt the technology.
  • The author spent 2-3 months researching quantum to overcome knowledge gaps and evaluate the actual business case and customer willingness to pay.
Sep 18, 09:21 AMRead on Substack →

BOTTLENECK BOYZ

The Oracle by Polymarket
  • SemiAnalysis founder Doug O'Laughlin explains semiconductor bottlenecks in AI infrastructure, distinguishing himself from recent meme-account trend-chasers.
  • The interview covers Polymarket's largest AI market and discusses whether leading labs are holding back their best models.
  • SemiAnalysis built expertise through years of deep semiconductor focus before the recent AI surge, contrasting with newcomer analysts.
Sep 18, 09:10 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 7

Caracas, Havana, & Grand Lake Stream, Maine

David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
  • Ukrainian drone units defeated U.S. troops and armored vehicles in a training exercise in Germany, eliminating a full armored brigade.
  • Gap exists between billions spent on Pentagon drone and counter-drone technology and actual effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
  • Low-cost weapons systems may not fundamentally change the probability of conflict outcomes despite tactical advantages.
Sep 20, 06:04 AMRead on Substack →

Motaz Azaiza Talks About How Hamas Manipulated Journalists In Gaza

John Aziz
  • Prominent Gaza photojournalist Motaz Azaiza, featured by TIME magazine and other major outlets, has made admissions regarding Hamas manipulation of journalists covering the conflict.
  • Azaiza gained international credibility and large following through viral images of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza before leaving Gaza via Qatari military jet in January 2024.
  • His work received extensive legitimacy from major institutions including TIME, GQ, and World Press Photo Foundation despite subsequent revelations about editorial influence.
Sep 19, 12:48 PMRead on Substack →

Where Are the Women?

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • UK Labour MP Stella Creasy championed women's admission to the all-male Garrick Club but publicly defended gender segregation at a Muslim religious procession in her constituency.
  • Parisian Eiffel Tower female staff were instructed to remain out of sight during a foreign delegation visit, revealing how Western institutions compromise gender equality principles for multicultural deference.
  • Western legal and social protections for gender equality are increasingly undermined by cultural relativism that exempts non-Western communities from applying universal standards.
Sep 19, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

THE NEW FACE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE—AND WHY IT’S CLOSER THAN YOU THINK

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • United States is experiencing unprecedented levels of political violence since the 1960s, ranging from mass destructive protests to assassination attempts on political leaders.
  • Violence follows a normalization trajectory where incidents progress from condemnation to excuse-making to acceptance as a legitimate political weapon against opponents.
  • Author Robert Pape will present mechanisms driving this transformation and its implications for American democracy in a live Q&A format.
Sep 19, 10:46 AMRead on Substack →

How the Muslim Brotherhood Captured South Africa

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • The Muslim Brotherhood executed a global expansion strategy far beyond the Middle East, establishing networks in countries like South Africa through patience and institutional discipline.
  • Yusuf al-Qaradawi, exiled from Egypt in 1954, built an ideological network from Qatar that formalized into the International Union of Muslim Scholars in 2004.
  • The Brotherhood's long-term institutional approach created reach and influence across continents, often operating outside the geopolitical focus of Western observers.
Sep 18, 03:59 PMRead on Substack →

Imperialism Abroad

Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
  • Examines historical Democratic Party warnings about imperialism abroad leading to despotism at home.
  • Discusses AI's role in education and the pressure it creates for original thinking versus copying existing work.
  • Critiques current political dynamics and leftist dissatisfaction with Democratic direction.
Sep 18, 03:12 PMRead on Substack →

Friday Five (September 18, 2026)

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Weekly curation of five notable pieces from past week including analysis on Texas politics and voting patterns.
  • Conservative commentator Karl Rove discusses voting for Texas Democrat, signaling potential political realignment.
  • Highlights racial dynamics in political campaigns and candidate conduct during high-profile moments.
Sep 18, 12:30 PMRead on Substack →

Macro · 7

The Week That Was and The Week That Is: The Fed Hiked. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Global Macro Method
  • Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00% citing resilient spending and persistent inflation, but key question is how much tightening the economy can sustain.
  • August retail sales rose 1.2% and jobless claims fell to 196,000, showing consumer strength but manufacturing output declined 0.3%.
  • Future opportunities depend on whether higher costs and borrowing rates gradually undermine demand strength or if resilience proves durable.
Sep 20, 05:57 AMRead on Substack →

Six-Chart Sunday – That Escalated Quickly

Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
  • 2026 has moved faster than expected with diesel prices rising from $3.41 forecast to $6.39 actual and Democratic Senate odds jumping from 18% to 60%.
  • Real economic tailwinds from AI and corporate profits failed to lift consumer sentiment, swamped by inflation anxiety from tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
  • Multiple forecast reversals across energy, politics, and monetary policy illustrate difficulty of prediction when everything escalates rapidly.
Sep 20, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

The Ratio That Drives Everything: Debt, Liquidity and the Financial Cycle

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Global debt stock continues expanding faster than growth while remaining increasingly unproductive and unable to generate sufficient returns.
  • 70-80% of primary capital market transactions involve debt rollovers, making liquidity availability critical to preventing refinancing stress.
  • Structural problem arises because exponential debt growth cannot be matched by cyclical liquidity supply, creating vulnerability to financial crises.
Sep 20, 04:09 AMRead on Substack →

Frontier Justice

The Blind Squirrel
  • Indonesia positioned as emerging winner in multipolar world due to BRICS membership, OECD ambitions, and non-alignment with single foreign powers.
  • Nickel sector catalyzed Indonesian equity interest as the country holds 'Saudi Arabia of Nickel' status amid growing EV battery demand.
  • Indonesian bank equities offer turnaround opportunity as nation executes growth pivot after years of underperformance versus other emerging markets.
Sep 19, 06:31 AMRead on Substack →

the fiscal war.

Hugh Hendry
  • The U.S. fiscal deficit is being rerouted rather than resolved, with three pieces of legislation (GENIUS, CLARITY, anti-CBDC acts) legislating the physical world into the digital realm.
  • America is laying digital financial infrastructure across the country with billions in spending that most financial press has not yet noticed or analyzed.
  • These legislative moves represent a strategic pivot toward stablecoin and private-sector digital currencies, disguised as anti-surveillance measures but actually centralizing financial control.
Sep 19, 02:16 AMRead on Substack →

Gold caused the Great Depression

Gold and geopolitics
  • The gold standard was not the villain of the Great Depression despite popular interpretation; the real cause lay with central bankers' policy decisions, per Liaquat Ahamed's 'Lords of Finance.'
  • Countries that abandoned the gold standard early (like Britain in 1931) recovered faster, suggesting policy flexibility mattered more than the gold constraint itself.
  • Oversimplified narratives that blame the gold standard miss the nuance of how central bank leadership and decision-making actually drove the Depression's severity and duration.
Sep 18, 05:16 PMRead on Substack →

It's the Economy, Stupid

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Rising Treasury yields toward 5% reflect strong nominal GDP growth relative to loose monetary policy, not debt crisis fears or confidence loss.
  • Current bond market dynamics follow a normal cycle pattern, creating a potential major buying opportunity in fixed income.
  • The fundamental economic reality of growth outpacing policy tightness better explains yield movements than fiscal or structural concerns.
Sep 18, 10:07 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 7

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 20 September 2026

Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
  • Tech stock ETF flows and foreign flows into U.S. stocks are hitting record highs while CEO confidence and ISM PMIs are turning up.
  • Margin debt indicators are sounding clear risk warning signals and many index constituents are entering buyback blackout windows.
  • Broader cyclical upturn is underway on earnings and economy front, but lingering macro/geopolitical risks and market warning signs could derail momentum.
Sep 20, 01:13 AMRead on Substack →

Brookfield of Dreams

Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
  • Brookfield unexpectedly joined Nvidia's $500 billion AI infrastructure mobilization deal alongside KKR and BlackRock days before public announcement.
  • Brookfield's $1.3 trillion asset management platform has evolved from power infrastructure to data centers and now compute, positioning it as a major AI infrastructure player.
  • The late addition of Brookfield signals how quickly alternative asset managers are consolidating AI infrastructure financing opportunities.
Sep 19, 10:05 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Michael Burry

Michael Burry
  • Michael Burry's Part IV of 'Heretic's Guide to AI' analyzes the Big 5 hyperscalers and identifies over $3 trillion in concentrated risk across their filings.
  • Thread announcement prompts subscriber discussion about AI infrastructure risks hidden in hyperscaler balance sheets.
  • Post invites community engagement to debate systemic risks in the hyperscale compute economy.
Sep 19, 09:52 AMRead on Substack →

Friday POW!

The Haymaker Team
  • Pharma stock trading at ~$164 with down ~23% from 52-week high; H1 2026 revenue beat expectations with strong oncology growth.
  • Oncology products represent 48% of revenue with double-digit YoY growth; AI emerging as underappreciated drug-discovery accelerant.
  • Dividend raised, guidance maintained, and 2030 revenue ambitions reaffirmed despite valuation pullback.
Sep 18, 12:36 PMRead on Substack →

The shiniest object

Damped Spring 101
  • Hedge fund holdings of US government debt have grown 4x to $1.5 trillion (7% of total), but this exposure poses minimal systemic risk.
  • Media and political narratives misrepresent the basis trade as a major leverage source when it remains modest relative to overall asset appreciation.
  • Broad investor diversification in the Treasury market and structural stability mean near-term dislocation is unlikely despite widespread doom narratives.
Sep 18, 10:52 AMRead on Substack →

SANDWICH MEETING

Tony Greer
  • Fed's 25bp rate hike had minimal market impact with S&P and BCOM flat, signaling the pace of monetary tightening has slowed substantially.
  • Bonds stabilized after heavy selling while tech stocks continue leading with cybersecurity hitting new highs and SaaS sector avoiding predicted collapse.
  • Energy remains a pressure point with oil services underperforming the broader energy trade amid elevated crude prices from geopolitical tensions.
Sep 18, 09:28 AMRead on Substack →

Is Weather Driving Soybeans?

Nico from AiQ
  • Soybeans and soymeal rallied 11% and 18% respectively from mid-August through mid-September, with weather in Brazil being a key driver.
  • Most commodity traders lack proactive weather analysis skills and instead rely on third-party signals rather than understanding regional weather patterns 2-4 weeks ahead.
  • AiQ is developing an integrated platform combining weather databases, balance sheets, and real-time market data to enable lean teams to execute sophisticated commodity research previously requiring full research departments.
Sep 18, 06:31 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 4

Open Letter to Martin Lewis

David Turver from Eigen Values
  • Open letter to Martin Lewis argues that Net Zero policies and intermittent renewables are playing a significant role in increasing UK electricity bills.
  • Author credits Lewis with past victories on consumer protection but notes gap in analysis regarding renewable energy's contribution to rising energy costs.
  • Letter provides detailed breakdown of October price cap increases attributable to factors beyond just higher gas prices.
Sep 19, 11:58 PMRead on Substack →

Oil Context Weekly (W38)

Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
  • Weekly oil market analysis covering crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data.
  • Includes tracking of Middle East shipping flows and cross-media discussions with various market commentators.
  • Paid subscribers get access to detailed 40-page Market Positioning Data Deck.
Sep 18, 03:31 PMRead on Substack →

The Groningen Alibi

Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
  • The Netherlands sealed Europe's largest natural gas reserve in Groningen at the exact moment energy independence became critical following US-Israel strikes on Iran.
  • Dutch political figures prioritized domestic political interests and symbolic climate action over energy security strategy.
  • The decision to permanently close gas wells amid global energy disruption represents a dramatic miscalculation of geopolitical risk and European energy stability.
Sep 18, 11:17 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Seaborne coal markets closed the week under pressure with Australian PLV down $2.20/t and HCC down $3.30/t.
  • SGX futures showed sharper declines with October contracts down $9 and November contracts down $9.50 amid weakness in Chinese demand.
  • A bid for Saraji PHCC cargo at $280/t failed to generate deals, signaling continued market weakness.
Sep 18, 09:25 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 4

Market Analysis for the Week of 9/20

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Weekly market analysis provides technical charts and guidance to help traders assess whether to press long positions or take a more cautious stance in the coming week.
  • Content includes bonus non-paywalled post with expanded charting and analysis to inform trading decisions.
  • Discord community access offers daily and weekly trading plans plus real-time commentary on market setups.
Sep 19, 09:32 PMRead on Substack →

🐍 Where 458 milliseconds actually go

Jason from PyQuant News
  • Pandas DataFrame read_csv averaged 458 milliseconds for 3.8 million rows of S&P 500 daily price data from 1994-2024.
  • Polars library completes the same CSV read operation in single-digit milliseconds, offering dramatic performance gains for quantitative trading workflows.
  • Tutorial demonstrates practical optimization technique for algorithmic traders to accelerate data pipeline workflows without algorithmic changes.
Sep 19, 07:31 AMRead on Substack →

Bonus (Non-Paywalled) Post for the Week of 9/20

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • SPX made lower lows for four consecutive weeks into the FOMC meeting, signaling sellers were in control before this week's action.
  • The author outlines both the bear case and bull case scenarios to help traders decide whether to press longs or raise cash heading forward.
  • Trading the short side effectively provides early warning signals for bull traps and helps identify when bear cases are failing, creating alpha for hedged long portfolios.
Sep 18, 10:32 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PharmD_KS

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • PharmD_KS provides premarket trading updates and analysis for subscribers.
  • Content focuses on actionable trading insights and market positioning ahead of market open.
  • Subscriber chat format allows for real-time discussion and community engagement.
Sep 18, 08:14 AMRead on Substack →

Other · 3

What’s A Chart Party? (Podcast Tomorrow)

Garrett Baldwin
  • Author is upgrading audio recording and workstation equipment to improve podcast production quality after extended technical challenges and delays.
  • Announcement of upcoming 'Chart Party' podcast episode that will explore technical analysis themes.
  • Personal anecdote about Under-8 youth soccer team name selection illustrates democratic decision-making challenges in group settings.
Sep 19, 01:15 PMRead on Substack →

Landmine Cossack squats & single-leg RDLs: strength and power when life goes sideways

Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
  • Cossack landmine and single-leg Romanian deadlift landmine exercises build lateral leg and hip strength through unconventional weighted movements.
  • Post includes technique demos, warm-up routines, and regressions/progressions for both exercises to accommodate different fitness levels.
  • Landmine exercises provide functional strength training when traditional barbell setups aren't available or desired.
Sep 18, 09:05 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets slightly higher on light news; author references New Zealand concept of 'No. 8 wire' mentality as resourceful problem-solving approach.
  • Author discusses societal observations including generational mental health crisis and cultural shifts, using speculative humor about 2032 scenarios.
  • Post includes street-level commentary on current events and interview material with local business owner, mixing market commentary with cultural observations.
Sep 18, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

Tech · 1

The Wrap – Spy Vs. Spy, Bot Vs. Bot – Oh My!

Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
  • Meta's Muse AI agent app topped download charts this week, replicating ChatGPT's viral adoption pattern from May 2023.
  • Herb Greenberg identifies potential red flags around AI bot proliferation and competitiveness, signaling a shift from human-centric to bot-centric content consumption.
  • Article examines GFL Environmental's ongoing saga and Oklo's declining prospects amid broader market shifts.
Sep 19, 09:31 AMRead on Substack →