★ Priority · 16
What My Exorcist Friends Tell Me About Halloween. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Rod Dreher explores why he stopped celebrating Halloween after befriending working exorcists who shared concerns about Satanist rituals.
- Catholic priests and Louisiana exorcists claim Halloween is a significant date for devil-worshippers, sometimes involving dangerous rituals in rural areas.
- The essay contrasts urban skepticism with rural reality, suggesting city dwellers dismiss supernatural threats due to environmental certainty.
(Idea) SLB - The Recovery Is Already Priced In
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- SLB is a $35.7B oilfield services company positioned better for next 10 years than previous decade, but historical track record raises execution concerns.
- Over past 20 years, SLB returned 1.5% including dividends, badly lagging S&P 500's 11.1% due to poor execution and capital allocation.
- Pessimistic view on ability to sustainably grow intrinsic value per share over full cycle given repeated historical underperformance.
Casey Neistat: Why I Run the New York City Marathon Every Year
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Personal narrative of overcoming orthopedic limitations through running after a serious motorcycle accident.
- Reflection on the democratizing nature of marathon running and personal achievement over professional competition.
- Exploration of the New York City Marathon as a manifestation of individual determination and collective human resilience.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Proposes a tactical trade bet against Tesla based on potential Democratic midterm gains and Elon Musk's political positioning.
- Executes a long-dated put option on Tesla at a low cost as speculative positioning.
- Highlights Tesla and SpaceX as beneficiaries of Republican policy, making them vulnerable to blue wave outcomes.
IS OIL A BETTER INFLATION HEDGE THAN GOLD?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Questions whether the GLD/TLT ratio trade (gold to long-term Treasuries) has exhausted its 500% gains since 2020.
- Analyzes the breakdown in expected correlation between gold and bonds as inflation dynamics shift.
- Notes Chinese foreign reserve diversification away from Treasuries and into gold as structural support for precious metals.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Apple has outperformed Nasdaq by 16% YTD but faces headwinds from elevated memory costs and foldable iPhone technical issues.
- Options traders are positioning bearish bets on Apple given valuation extremes despite concentrated Mag7 positioning.
- Apple's November puts trading at low prices suggest minimal upside disappointment priced into options market currently.
The First State to Undo Legalized Weed? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Massachusetts Question 8 would repeal recreational marijuana legalization, marking the first major anti-legalization ballot measure.
- A cultural shift against legal cannabis is underway despite 24 states currently permitting recreational use.
- Similar repeal measures are expected to appear on ballots in other states like Maine in coming years.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Oil rallied over $2 overnight on Asia-driven buying of 10k WTI lots despite months of headline-driven suppression.
- Multiple geopolitical catalysts active including Ras Tanura shutdown, port of Jask bombing, and Strait of Hormuz tanker incidents.
- Algos appear to be suppressing moves with limited volume followthrough.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Intel down 25% on poor results; AI hype cycle appears broken as buyback pitches disappear.
- Russell 2000 outperformed Nasdaq by 8% in October, signaling rotation away from mega-cap tech.
- Weyerhauser trades at 40% discount to NAV despite strong generational assets.
TGIF: Fake & Gay
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- US dominance in AI infrastructure and data center capacity emerging as primary measure of national industrial power and geopolitical competitiveness.
- AI capacity and compute capabilities now central to economic and strategic advantage comparable to historical manufacturing and infrastructure metrics.
- Investment in AI infrastructure represents new frontier of American economic productivity and competitive positioning.
(Idea) Enterprise Products Partners - Reexamining My Investment Thesis With Treasuries Yielding 5%
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.14% in October, over 100 basis points above February levels, forcing reassessment of midstream equity valuations.
- Enterprise Products Partners' 6.1% distribution yield no longer attractive premium over 5.1% risk-free Treasury rates despite strong financial fundamentals.
- Author maintains existing EPD holdings for income but halts new purchases at $39 price, highlighting tension between yield and credit risk in rising rate environment.
Douglas Murray: Bibi Derangement Syndrome Is Spreading
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Netanyahu's popularity consistently underestimated in polls despite serving as prime minister for 19 of last 30 years.
- Bibi Derangement Syndrome causes systematic vision impairment in assessing Israeli political reality and election outcomes.
- Netanyahu has survived multiple political cycles while other world leaders from his era have long departed office.
Ross Douthat: The Meaning of the Midterms
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Ross Douthat compares 2024 Democratic midterm strategy to 2006 approach, noting reliance on moderate candidates over progressive candidates.
- Democratic success depends on modified version of moderate candidacy strategy, with mixed results from progressive bets.
- Analysis suggests Democratic primary voters rejected pure progressive 'Tea Party' approach in favor of broader coalition building.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Le Shrub discusses rotation trade strategy results, with beaten-down stocks like BLDR gaining +18% and calls nearly tripling.
- Emphasizes taking profits on winning trades to lock in gains and maintain mental well-being while compounding returns.
- Applies 'Rotation Trade' playbook from 'AI Slop of Hope II' framework to capture gains in undervalued equities.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Google fell 10% on Q3 earnings showing search revenue growth slowed to +12% YoY from +17-19% in prior quarters, signaling LLM disruption threat.
- ServiceNow dropped 20% despite Q4 guidance miss being modest (18.5% vs 19.7% consensus), reflecting market panic and volatility in high-growth tech.
- The 'AI Slop of Hope' meme is collapsing as reality checks hit mega-cap tech valuations that peaked on Buffett's Google reversal trade.
are the options market's odds any good?
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Moontower's Verticals workflow sizes directional moves by each stock's implied volatility, making 1-SD rallies comparable across different securities.
- Fair payout for a 1-SD move should be ~5.25 to 1 (84 to 16 odds), since upside 1-SD moves occur ~16% of the time in lognormal distribution.
- If the market prices a spread at 20% probability but you assess it higher, the spread offers edge; the screener sorts by payout to identify favorable risk-reward setups.
Politics · 14
Voter Engagement Hits Record High
Demography Unplugged
- Voter engagement reaches record high with 56% of Americans giving significant thought to midterms, up 7 points from 2022.
- Democrats hold 10-point enthusiasm advantage (58% vs 48% Republican), positioning them better than 2018 when GOP matched their fervor.
- Perceived stakes of midterm elections have steadily risen throughout generational cycles, now peaking during Fourth Turning.
Friday Five & Mailbag (October 30, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Analysis of media appearances by political figures in hostile environments and their strategic value.
- Discussion of cross-partisan dialogue and willingness to engage opposing viewpoints.
- Exploration of productive discourse in polarized media landscape.
“Pro-Palestine” Jewish Comedian Accosted By Antisemite
John Aziz
- Demonstrates how antisemitic rhetoric has escalated across mainstream and fringe platforms despite pro-Palestinian political positioning.
- Documents the normalization of anti-Jewish conspiracy theories through social media and mainstream media personalities.
- Argues that pro-Palestinian activism does not inoculate against antisemitism and may enable broader hateful ideologies.
When History Rhymes, and the US Strikes
Open Insights
- Predicts potential US military escalation against Iran post-midterms, drawing parallels to 1972 Linebacker II bombing campaign.
- Notes Iranian demands for Strait of Hormuz control as non-negotiable sticking point amid diplomatic stalemate.
- Emphasizes Trump administration's need to dismantle Iranian nuclear program as core policy legacy justification for military action.
Criminal
Scott Galloway
- America's entrepreneurial advantage stems from the rule of law protecting business creation from criminal prosecution and seizure.
- Trump's second term exhibits patterns of corruption including government-funded vanity projects and CEO gift-giving that erode institutional guardrails.
- Extractive governance models that prioritize leader enrichment undermine the inclusive systems that made America economically competitive.
Part Deux
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- Canadian regional elections in October 2026 had divergent outcomes: Alberta rejected separation while British Columbia elected a Conservative government.
- Political decisions regarding energy infrastructure and pipelines can reshape regional economic direction for generations.
- Provincial leadership choices determine whether billions in natural resource investments proceed and which markets benefit from exports.
Independents Are Mostly Apathetic About Politics. Will It Affect the Midterms?
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Independent voters are predominantly apathetic about partisan politics and elections, preferring to discuss non-political topics.
- Independents maintain patriotic commitment to country but find little meaning in congressional partisan warfare and electoral contests.
- Independent voter engagement patterns may significantly impact midterm election turnout and results.
Violent Populism in Paris: Dry Brush, One Spark
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- France faces elevated risk of urban violence on Halloween with 68% of public supporting protest movement over prices and policing.
- Two weekends of protests have resulted in 2,200+ arrests and 267 injured police officers, demonstrating scale of 'violent populism' phenomenon.
- US faces similar test three days after Paris events as votes are counted and wildfire season peaks, requiring monitoring of focal point events.
A Duty of Care
Craig Tindale
- Australian Federal Police report nearly 800 protective security incidents for federal parliamentarians in first half of 2026.
- Essay argues that public figures with large audiences owe a duty of care in how they discuss political opponents.
- Political rhetoric directly correlates with threats and harassment against public officials across party lines.
Just Like Everything in Israel, Elections Are Complicated Too
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Israeli elections achieved 77.7% turnout, highest since 1999, with nearly 5.7 million voters casting ballots.
- Despite record participation, election produced gridlocked result with no bloc achieving the 61 seats needed to govern.
- Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, opposition 48 seats, and Arab parties 19 seats with potential complications from ongoing Iran tensions.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Cultural Blind Spot
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali critiques Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio governor campaign ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother as culturally tone-deaf.
- Ad fails to recognize American cultural values protecting abuse victims after mother chose to stay with husband who raped daughter.
- Ramaswamy's decision reflects cultural attitudes toward shame and family from his Indian upbringing misaligned with Western understanding of abuse and accountability.
The Questions Democrats Still Need to Answer
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democrats are experiencing high spirits after an electoral victory but may misattribute success to endorsement of their agenda rather than thermostatic reaction against Trump.
- Author questions whether the party is genuinely resolving underlying structural problems or merely benefiting from opposition fatigue.
- The post raises critical questions about Democratic understanding of their victory's true sources and implications for future governance.
Britain, as a Nation and Government, Chooses Poverty
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Britain's current poverty and decline stem from a post-WWII mindset prioritizing comfort over meaning and purpose.
- The author argues Britons and their government have avoided accountability by blaming external factors rather than acknowledging poor choices.
- Poverty is presented as primarily a psychological and cultural condition rooted in a victim mentality rather than mere economic circumstances.
BOOTS ON THE GROUND
The Oracle by Polymarket
- A former military supply chain security director who uses logistics-based open source intelligence estimates an 85% structural probability of US ground invasion of Iran before 2028.
- The critical trigger for escalation would be significant US military casualties, which would shift public opinion toward demanding faster and harder military action.
- The analyst believes current indicators—blood supply logistics, draft law changes, and troop movements—all point toward escalation.
Markets · 13
YWR: Global Factor Model
PAIDErik@YWR
- Global Factor Model ranks 10,000+ stocks on earnings revisions, valuations, and momentum, with October rankings and data app now available.
- Semiconductor supply chain (Taiwan/Japan) shows strongest estimate revisions globally, driven by AI and chip demand.
- Energy sector (shipping, refiners, integrated oil) represents second major earnings trend that investors are reluctant to discuss or own.
Tidewater: More Cash From the Same Assets
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Tidewater Midstream offers compelling value with recovering earnings and government fuel credit support.
- Company benefits from contracted margins and expanding aviation fuel business funded by operational cash.
- Falling debt and more cash from existing assets provide earnings insulation from broader market weakness.
Postcards: Valuation and Compounders
Postcards From the Edge of the World
- Examines the relationship between valuation metrics and compounder stock performance.
- Analyzes how growth rates and market multiples interact in long-term wealth creation.
- Provides framework for identifying sustainable compounding opportunities in equity markets.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Investors tolerate upside volatility while fearing downside volatility, creating asymmetric market dynamics.
- Brazilian stock market rallied after right-wing electoral win but faced reversal following final presidential election results.
- Election outcomes can dramatically reshape capital flows and market sentiment in emerging markets.
The October Kidney Shot (Live at 8 am ET)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Market volatility increasing with FNGD pushing above 20-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling potential weakness similar to past selloffs.
- Current selloff driven by regulatory pressure, earnings concerns, and lack of Fed market confidence, distinct from previous November 2025 and April 2026 declines.
- Despite underlying instability, central banks and governments continue financial engineering and accommodation efforts to prop up markets.
Pockets of Pain
Andrew Sarna
- CCC-to-BB credit spread ratio reached 5.4x in October, near record levels, indicating severe stress in lower-quality corporate debt despite index remaining near highs.
- Gap between B and CCC spreads at nearly 8% signals forced liquidations in illiquid credit markets by distressed funds.
- Mega-cap earnings disappointment spreading with Alphabet and Amazon experiencing significant drawdowns, raising concerns about mega-cap valuation sustainability.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Tech earnings disappointment from Intel, Google, and ServiceNow pushing Nasdaq toward 10% decline from highs.
- Energy companies surge as Brent crude trades above $116 following resumed Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries.
- Month-end dynamics collide with geopolitical tension as Putin threatens suspension of talks over Ukrainian strikes.
Indonesia: Crisis Investing at Its Best
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Dutch East India Company (VOC) pioneered modern corporate finance, global branding, and stock exchange models that set templates for contemporary markets.
- VOC ruled Dutch East Indies (modern Indonesia) with its own army and currency, establishing Jakarta as capital and dominating Eastern Hemisphere trade.
- Recent Indonesian market debacle prompts strategic reassessment of crisis investing opportunities in historically important but currently troubled region.
💬 New thread from Capital Flows
Capital Flows
- Downside put positions in META and GOOGL are generating significant returns based on earlier regulatory outlook report.
- Pairing tech downside puts with Russell 2000 long positions amplifies gains across different market segments.
- Trade thesis details available in prior research report on midterms and AI regulatory environment.
Just a Reminder... Nothing Good Happens Here...
Garrett Baldwin
- Inverse leveraged FANG+ ETN momentum failing to hold above 20 and 50-day moving averages, signaling weakness.
- Market at inflection point where bull trap could transition to deeper selloff if Nasdaq 100 breaks key support.
- Hedge fund shorting positioning amplifying downside risk in current market environment requiring careful monitoring.
Haymaker Daily - Special Edition, Cont.
The Haymaker Team
- Part III of 'Qualified Defense of Investment Bubbles' explores positioning ahead of potential bubble deflation driven by AI build-out slowdown.
- Recommends taking profits on vertical-moving equities like memory companies if data-center proliferation decelerates.
- Applies John Templeton framework of bull market progression from pessimism through euphoria to investment strategy decisions.
Anthropic, Adding It Up: The Growth Gap
Cape Fear Advisors
- Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation requires extraordinary future growth that current filings cannot yet demonstrate.
- Revenue growth projections from the S-1 range from $82 billion to $193 billion next year, but the company's third-quarter slowdown creates uncertainty about which trajectory will materialize.
- The 'growth gap' represents the distance between what the valuation demands and what historical records of trillion-dollar companies can support over the following decade.
Build-A-Bear (BBW) Part II: The Scion Capital Analyst Tempate and the All Map
Michael Burry
- Build-A-Bear (BBW) is a deeply discounted micro-cap retailer with ~$300M market cap, no debt, and $80M EBITDA that Wall Street largely ignores.
- The stock faces a perfect storm: 25% short float with 9 days to cover, weakening consumer discretionary spending, and AI hype overshadowing its potential.
- Burry applies his original Scion Capital analyst template from 2006 to evaluate the company, suggesting it has been undervalued despite surviving multiple existential threats (GFC, smart devices, AI).
Macro · 11
Redeye Macro Note: “Situational Awareness - Surfing the Plateau”
MacroEdge Research
- Markets finished Friday volatile; prediction markets suggest Trump may face electoral setback, potentially prompting escalated Middle East campaign.
- Restructuring of military leadership over 8 months of conflict suggests Trump may lash out at Iran if perceived as cause of defeat.
- So-called mediator headlines serve as effective market manipulation tools; oil/gas report to follow on war front, Strait of Hormuz, and inventory levels.
Weekly KAOS - The Bullwhip & The Canary
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- AI trade volatility and tech selloff reveal bullwhip effect in capital-intensive upstream infrastructure buildout.
- Shift from equity to debt financing in chip, server, and power infrastructure creates vulnerability to credit tightening.
- Credit market signals and bond rally suggest early warning of growth deceleration in AI investment cycle.
Follow the Money
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
- Maps AI as a financing story with ecosystem players including labs, lessors, and compute guarantors like Nvidia.
- Highlights private markets as increasingly critical infrastructure for institutional and retail capital deployment.
- Examines the credit cycle and banks' continued lending despite record low consumer sentiment, flagging potential AI-driven financial risks.
Blacklion Daily Den Final Friday October 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Energy price weakness is cooling future growth expectations rather than feeding inflation, impairing demand elsewhere.
- NDX 100 back-to-back breakout failures suggest AI mania trade being questioned due to financing pressures and slowing growth.
- Market pricing out Fed rate hikes as growth cools; decline in long-end yields driven by lower growth expectations, not deflation.
BoJ's Ueda Keeps Both Doors Open
Takuji Okubo
- Bank of Japan will more than double ETF sales to ¥2.5 trillion annually starting January 2027, representing moderate tightening of financial conditions.
- BoJ maintained policy rate at 1.25% but kept options open on December hike, with Ueda denying fixed quarterly hiking pace.
- Faster ETF sales help maintain BoJ P/L in positive territory while signaling gradual policy normalization.
The Fed’s ‘Third Way’
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity cycle rolling over through unconventional mechanism: real economy absorption via fiscal expansion and AI-capex boom rather than demand destruction.
- Fed shifting from aggressive financial tightening toward Treasury market stability and balance-sheet capacity to handle expanding government debt.
- Policy mix preserves financial plumbing liquidity for Treasury refinancing and private capex while real economy itself absorbs excess liquidity.
Gas and Brakes
Peruvian Bull
- Federal Reserve holding rates steady while simultaneously purchasing Treasury bills with newly created money, creating conflicting policy signals.
- Kevin Warsh promising price stability while colleagues advocate for additional rate hikes, masking underlying monetary expansion via hidden standing orders.
- Metaphor of simultaneous gas and brake pedal illustrates policy contradiction between rate stability rhetoric and continued money creation.
Lael Brainard on Why Groceries Cost So Much
Kyla’s Newsletter
- Kyla's newsletter features interview with Lael Brainard discussing solutions to rising grocery costs.
- Announcement of new career advice show 'Best of Luck' launching on Vox Media with host Kai Ryssdal.
- Focus on how economic advice must adapt as traditional employment structures and career paths continue to evolve.
Slowdown in GDP and AI capex
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Growth and inflation are decelerating from elevated levels as the reflationary regime exits, with leading indicators diving lower.
- AI capex spending is falling short of expectations as rising yields and capital constraints squeeze funding for data center expansion.
- Meta and other firms are shifting from debt to equity financing as the cost of capital and insurance on AI-related debt has become prohibitively high.
Blacklion Daily Den Thursday October 29, 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Thursday brings key economic data (GDP, inflation) that should have come before the Fed meeting; Treasury 7-year note offering expected to go smoothly.
- ECB and BOJ both expected to hold; Fed's recent FOMC performance described as 'disgraceful,' with Chair apparently successfully steepening the yield curve.
- 2-year note futures trading in 102-102'010 range with intraday targets higher (lower yields); PCE data could break the range.
Monetary Medicine My...
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Fed held rates in 3.75%-4.00% range with two members voting for a hike; market moved as Baldwin predicted, with SPY $772 calls doubling twice for readers.
- 'Monetary medicine' refers to tightening financial conditions post-hike, but the real signal is the Fed's implementation note to the NY Fed trading desk on open market operations.
- Baldwin emphasizes ignoring Fed rhetoric and focusing on actions: the implementation note directs reserve management, overnight lending, and Treasury purchases—the true policy lever.
Culture · 8
Thoughts From A Survivor
Shari A Smith from Running On Faith And Coffee
- Personal reflection on abuse survivorship and trauma healing journey.
- Poetic exploration of self-identity and resilience in facing difficult emotions.
- Resources and support information for domestic violence awareness.
Good Taste Requires More Than Personal Preference
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Social media algorithms enable aesthetic adoption rather than genuine taste development through experience and exposure.
- Personal preference alone cannot define beauty; authentic discernment requires developing standards beyond subjective choice.
- Meaningful objects carry stories and cultural value that cannot be judged purely by visual presentation or social media impact.
Character Select
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Novels serve as ethnographic portraits revealing archetypal character roles available within specific societies and historical periods.
- National stereotypes function as folk ethnography—caricatures of most popular character selections within a culture's social hierarchy.
- Author returning to travel in November across Minneapolis, Sioux Falls, Seoul, Shenyang, and Okinawa to document cultural variations firsthand.
A love letter to the Jews of Britain, and the West
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Author reflects on time spent in Israel experiencing Jewish hospitality and community despite being an outsider.
- Personal family history of Holocaust liberation shapes author's perspective on antisemitism and Jewish safety in the West.
- Essay critiques recent focus on antisemitic attacks while celebrating the resilience and humor of Jewish communities themselves.
Healthy Pumpkin Bars with Brown Butter Frosting
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Lightened-up pumpkin bars recipe using monkfruit sweetener, applesauce, and protein powder for reduced calories.
- Brown butter frosting made with browned butter and powdered sugar alternative keeps indulgence minimal.
- Final bars contain 79 calories without frosting and 148 with frosting, providing macro-balanced treat option.
No Thank You, I Don't Want to Join Your Parasite Club
Chaotic Neutral
- Speculative fiction piece exploring a society where 'parasites' (babies/children) are a optional lifestyle choice people can acquire.
- Friend Cass describes having a parasite as the first thing that felt truly real compared to rest of her life experiences.
- Story examines attitudes toward parenthood, life purpose, and societal value through lens of metaphorical parasitism.
How to Blend Your Own Spices
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Guide to blending custom spice combinations, using popcorn as testing medium to evaluate flavor profiles.
- Movie popcorn preparation with butter/oil, salt, and sugar enables tasting spice flavors and helps them adhere to kernels.
- Fat-soluble spice compounds become more apparent when suspended in heated fats, making this a practical kitchen technique.
The doppelgängers
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Author experiences three cases of mistaken identity within three days while traveling for business and leisure.
- Each encounter involves strangers believing he is someone else—a wine distributor, a repeat customer, or an acquaintance.
- Author explores the folkloric concept of doppelgängers and questions whether he resembles someone else or is experiencing coincidence.
AI · 7
The Average of Zero and Infinity is...
The Blind Squirrel
- Venture capitalists justify extreme AI startup valuations using 'average of zero and infinity is infinity' logic, but the expected value argument breaks down with unbounded tail scenarios.
- Even assuming a $120 trillion equity valuation (roughly global GDP), rational investing suggests buying only 1 share, which won't fund enough infrastructure.
- Anthropic finally filed its S-1, dispelling investor concerns about revolt over early financial statement reviews.
Spooky Speedbrake on the Way to the Singularity?
Campbell
- NASDAQ remains in middle of bullish AI trade range since 2022, though steep gains raise questions about entry points for new buyers.
- Portfolio maintains short equity via puts while allocating to mineral stocks; gold position expanded with June 2027 broken flies after buying March call spreads.
- Multiple headwinds emerging: higher rates, tighter credit conditions, stronger dollar, and Intel's 30% drop signal cracks flowing from credit to equities.
Y Combinator Just Showed You What to Build. Here Are 33 Startup Ideas Worth Building Now 🚀
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Y Combinator Winter 2027 RFS emphasizes that AI model bottlenecks have shifted to physical infrastructure, supply chains, and regulatory constraints rather than pure compute.
- Key opportunities identified in robotics supply chains, data center equipment, government benefits verification, city permitting, and specialized AI services.
- AI received $102B of $159B global venture funding in Q3 2026, with hyperscalers investing ~$1T in capex, creating demand for infrastructure gap-filling startups.
A Tale of Two AI Monetisers
AP Research
- Google missed earnings forecasts across most metrics and dropped 13% after revealing AI Mode in search has lower monetization.
- Search ad revenue hit five-quarter low as AI-generated overviews reduce need for users to click through to websites.
- Company's own AI features cannibalizing core search advertising business, undermining years of executive claims about AI coexistence with traditional search.
GPUs are the Rigs, Tokens are the Oil
Grizzle Research and Quant
- GPUs and ASICs function as 'oil rigs' while AI tokens serve as 'oil' in an energy extraction analogy for the AI buildout.
- High GPU rental rates and token price crashes can occur simultaneously, similar to oil rig profitability during oversupply.
- GPU shortage is not necessarily a positive signal for AI demand and could presage future token price collapses from overproduction.
New Study: Anthropic Just Gave You a Reason to Stop Working With AI
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI systems suffer from 'mode collapse' where outputs concentrate around narrow subsets of possible answers, ignoring natural human variation.
- When asked open-ended questions like favorite number or color, AI disproportionately defaults to popular choices (7, blue, Shakespeare) rather than distributing across options as humans would.
- This behavior fundamentally limits AI's ability to generate diverse outputs and suggests users should reconsider relying on AI for tasks requiring genuine variation and uniqueness.
Steal this “relationship intelligence” system
Khe Hy
- Personal AI agents have improved significantly at scanning and processing email, enabling notification-based workflows rather than manual inbox management.
- Email and calendar data contain rich relationship intelligence that can be extracted and organized by AI systems to surface critical contacts and meeting preparation needs.
- A Claude Plugin is offered to help users build relationship intelligence systems from their existing email and calendar without abandoning traditional email workflows.