★ Priority · 13
Why the Houthis Won’t Go Away. Amanda Knox on the Clancy Case and the Court of Public Opinion. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Iran-aligned Houthis have launched major offensives disrupting Middle East trade routes, crude pipelines, and driving oil prices higher despite US military efforts.
- Treasury yields briefly exceeded 5% amid Houthi escalation and regional instability, reflecting broader economic consequences of the widening conflict.
- Analysis examines four reasons explaining US failure to contain Houthis and how potential Iranian weakness could threaten their operational capacity.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Market rotation strongly favored software (IGV +5%) and cybersecurity over semiconductors (SMH -5%), producing a historic +10.3% IGV/SMH ratio gain.
- Cybersecurity stocks and productivity software names (ZS, NOW, TEAM) showed breakout momentum with gains exceeding 7% each.
- IGV is developing a technical roll-up pattern suggesting potential for significant upside exposure expansion in software group.
Grace Tame: “Apology” Not Accepted
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author expresses independent stance on feminism and women's issues, rejecting what she characterizes as gatekeeping and elitism within mainstream feminist circles.
- Financial independence and unwillingness to pursue expedient political or social positions presented as sources of friction with establishment figures.
- Criticism directed at certain feminists for social climbing and taking advantage of survivor narratives for personal advancement.
The Risk of Things Getting Better
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Positioning ahead of CPI data was heavily bearish with multiple hedges, limiting downside when inflation came hotter than expected.
- QQQ held support at 29k level since May despite periodic tests, with Friday's market response showing positioning constraint rather than fundamental weakness.
- Goldman Sachs prime data showed macro shorts accumulating before CPI while TMT names were selectively bought, indicating tactical bifurcation.
The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Shyam Sankar from Palantir argues that AI safety regulation rhetoric masks an ideological agenda to consolidate control away from American innovation.
- Warnings from AI researchers and leaders should not be accepted at face value; calls to slow progress may actually reflect power-consolidation motives.
- The piece presents a contrarian view to prevailing AI safety discourse, questioning whether responsible-sounding pleas align with genuine safety concerns.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Oil market moving sharply with demand destruction or policy change as key inflection points amid Middle East tensions.
- Saudi pipeline to Yanbu with 7 million bpd capacity remains shut after Iranian proxy attacks, constraining crude exports.
- Trump administration likely to explore export restrictions as oil prices rise, following pattern of attempting everything including unorthodox policy levers.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Midterm seasonality effects combined with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and AI regulation warnings create cross-asset pressure.
- Bond positioning potentially benefits from slower AI capex reducing issuance, but energy headwinds remain critical to rally sustainability.
- Portfolio positioning shifts as AI hype cools and geopolitical risks escalate in energy markets.
BoJ in September: something new
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- Bank of Japan is set to hike rates in September for the first time in modern history, breaking traditional quiet-month patterns.
- BoJ convinced markets to discount September rate hike through guidance and public comments; second hike in December also being priced.
- Rate hike appears tied to quid pro quo arrangement with US for currency intervention assistance and yen stabilization.
Niall Ferguson and Tyler Cowen: AIpocalypse Now? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Debate over AI existential risks intensifies as researchers warn top AI labs are advancing technology dangerously fast.
- Federal Reserve Dallas chart illustrates the spectrum of AI outcomes ranging from unprecedented prosperity to human extinction.
- AI safety and regulation concerns dominate headlines, with key voices like Niall Ferguson and Tyler Cowen weighing in on potential civilizational risks.
THE TREAURY BUYBACK IS TOO SMALL
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- BOJ's massive QE (USD 1.7tn to USD 7tn) pushed Japanese investors out of domestic bonds by buying at high prices, but they maintained large unhedged foreign positions.
- Japanese investors now hold massive unhedged fixed income positions, predominantly in US Treasuries, with life insurers cutting hedging ratios dramatically.
- Rising US Treasury yields and Japanese yen strength create significant losses for unhedged foreign bond holdings, representing tail risk to global markets.
The Machine Never Releases
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- When checking facts becomes cheap, lies don't disappear but acquire a price as public records surface old claims and evidence.
- Societies that remember everything without understanding context risk becoming unbearable, requiring room for forgiveness and nuance.
- The essay explores how perfect information retention and accessibility change incentives and power dynamics in modern discourse.
USD: equity market = trend, Fed credibility risk still small
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- US private market flows, especially into equities over the past two years, are the fundamental driver of USD strength against de-dollarization narratives.
- Relative stock market performance is a more reliable truth metric for dollar fundamentals than interest rate volatility alone.
- US growth quality and investments in raising potential growth should be valued at a premium when analyzing long-term dollar dynamics.
after this post you will be sizing bets in your head
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Mental bet sizing is a learnable skill that applies to both trading and real-life decision-making under uncertainty.
- Author intentionally writes with stylistic complexity and Easter eggs to serve both beginner and advanced readers simultaneously.
- Deliberate unfiltered and parenthetical writing style prioritizes depth over clarity and audience size.
Markets · 16
Public to Private Equity
Andrew Sarna
- Since 2006, investors have shifted $3.5 trillion into passive index funds while withdrawing $3.4 trillion from active management.
- Private markets show wider outcome distributions than public equities, with roughly one-quarter of buyouts losing money and over half of venture deals losing 50-100% of capital.
- Private equity's fatter negative tails are offset by exceptional positive outliers, contrasting with the more balanced distribution of public equities.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets decline as bond yields continue selling off with 10-year Treasury hitting 5.02% and oil prices rising 2%.
- Asian and European markets show weakness with Japan down 53bp and China down 55bp, reflecting broad softness in consumer names.
- Software sector (IGV) significantly outperformed semiconductors (SMH) with a historic +10.3% ratio gain, driven by cybersecurity and productivity software strength.
Quadwitching
Gold and geopolitics
- Quadwitching event on Friday (Sept 18) involves simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, index futures and single-stock futures.
- Notional value at risk approaches $6-9 trillion across all expiring contracts this week.
- Historical analogy to quad-bike instability used to illustrate potential for sharp market moves during the event.
Royalties: Where We See Value Amongst Small Caps
Asymmetric Research
- Small-cap royalty and streaming companies show wide valuation spreads despite being part of the same quality cohort.
- The analysis focuses on relative valuations across high-quality names that the author has held at various points.
- The note evaluates where value opportunities exist within this segment of equity markets.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets decline as oil prices jump and AI enthusiasm cools; key focus on Fed, BOE, BOJ rate decisions this week.
- AI regulation concerns from Anthropic employees are dismissed as inconsistent with their actual business actions (IPO plans).
- Inflation data, China economic reports, and Wall Street conferences will drive near-term market direction.
Nose Clip and Chain Mail Glove
BUSHY™ and Acorn Weekly
- BUSHY portfolio achieved strong week returns driven by energy-related assets, now ahead of S&P for the year with only 60% realized volatility.
- AI frontier LLM training slowdown signals bearish outlook for equities; pair trade RSP/QQQ pulled back reflecting tech weakness.
- Rates positioning and energy exposure adjustments are key portfolio management themes ahead of FOMC decisions.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets decline sharply on AI slowdown headlines; 10Y yields near 5%, energy outperforming as geopolitical risks escalate.
- European markets weighed down by tech and industrial weakness; Asian mixed results with Japan rallying while China and Korea decline.
- AI fears, Middle East instability, and weakening China loan demand converging to create broad-based risk-off environment.
Very Negative Forces
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- AI industry leaders warned development is dangerous, sparking significant selloff in AI stocks (SoftBank -13%, Kospi -2.8%) despite Trump dismissing safety concerns.
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shut by drone strike with de-escalation meeting postponed, pushing Brent to $107 and creating real negative forces in energy markets.
- Fed Chair is on collision course with Trump over policy direction amid rising oil prices, government debt concerns, and duration curve grinding higher.
Bonds, Sinking Bonds
AP Research
- Only 39% of S&P 500 members trade above their 50-day moving average, indicating broad market weakness with energy as the only reliably positive sector.
- Treasury selloff across the curve with 30-year yield at 5.373% (highest since 2007) signals markets pricing inflation shock over Fed credibility restoration.
- Bear steepening reverses Jackson Hole flattening while oil-driven repricing and weak August data complicate the rates picture despite expected Fed hike.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Silver miners achieving record free cash flow (4x previous peak) and AISC margins at $3,076/oz (+134% YoY) amid surging physical silver ETF inflows.
- Global government interest costs hit record $2.24 trillion with 30-year sovereign yields spiking sharply across major economies (Japan +210bp, Germany +145bp).
- Commodity prices hitting all-time highs including copper at $16K/ton, ULSD at $5.16, ground beef at $6.92/lb, and Shanghai crude $121 (record $16 premium to Brent).
The Week Ahead 9/13/26
Eliant
- Post-Labor Day week saw lower volume but elevated volatility driven by Middle East geopolitics and oil surpassing $100/bbl again.
- Upcoming FOMC meeting has rate markets pricing in a hike as certain, with retail sales data and other economic indicators scheduled.
- Eliant's tactical trading strategy has netted 203% returns since June 2023, outperforming QQQ (+100.63%), SPY (+83.13%), and small-caps (+65.7%).
NVIDIA, A Little Bit of Money In
Cape Fear Advisors
- Jensen Huang described financing model as non-circular: NVIDIA invests minimal capital while receiving $100 billion offtake from AI-native customers.
- AI-native companies defined as those spending two-thirds of raised capital on compute, identified through equity instruments from three major GPU buyers.
- Analysis examines NVIDIA's financing structure with major AI customers through detailed examination of filed equity transactions and currency movements.
The Case for adding bonds - The 60/40 Strikes Back.
Damped Spring 101
- Long-term government bonds now meet three of four key investment criteria: adequate risk premium, real interest rates, and upside in weak growth scenarios.
- Inflation compensation remains the weakest component of bond valuations across developed markets.
- European and Japanese bond markets have recently caught up to US valuation levels, creating fresh equity and bond buying opportunities.
Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup
Capitalist-Letters
- Peter Lynch's principle of investing in companies with ubiquitous products offers timeless guidance for stock selection.
- Author successfully applied this thesis to Italian banking by identifying consolidated point-of-sale dominance by Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit.
- Companies integrated into daily life and personally used tend to produce strong investment returns over time.
Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | September 13, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Crude oil reclaimed $100/barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tanker war escalation and hot August inflation data.
- S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 7,662.72 after four consecutive down days, sitting 1.7% below August's record high.
- Treasury yields hit 52-week highs across the curve as markets locked in expectations for September Fed rate increase.
Statistical analysis of the 10y US yield
The diary of a speculator
- Author opened 8 long positions since August with a 4-2-2 loss-breakeven-profit split, yielding +191 bps gain overall.
- S&P 500 regime switching model uses features like trend, momentum, breadth, credit spreads, and sentiment to guide trading decisions.
- Bitcoin positions via IBIT and HOOD showed the strongest performance; profits partially booked with stops now at breakeven.
Macro · 14
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global Liquidity rose to $195.8 trillion driven by weak dollar conditions and favorable funding, despite Shadow Monetary Base remaining flat.
- Central banks excluding PBoC are limiting liquidity growth while collateral bond values decline, indicating late-cycle dynamics.
- Investors remain risk-on but are adjusting exposure positioning to account for this advanced stage of the liquidity cycle.
HThe Fed Is About To Hike Into An Oil War | Weekly Report | Sep 13, 2026
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Federal Reserve likely to raise rates Wednesday despite a slowing economy, with CME FedWatch showing over 90% probability of a September hike.
- 10-year Treasury yields brushed 5% for first time since 2023; oil prices exceeded $100, raising concerns about stagflation.
- A secondary economic indicator moved opposite to deficit panic narratives, suggesting the prevailing 'deficits driving rates' story may be incomplete.
What I’m Watching So You Don’t Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Multiple critical events converge this week affecting both Wall Street and Main Street, including AI concerns, surging oil/diesel prices, and rising interest rates.
- AI leaders including Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk are calling for 'pacing' AI development to prevent rogue agents from causing catastrophic harm.
- Skeptics question whether AI regulation calls are partly motivated by competitive concerns ahead of major IPOs like Anthropic's.
Everyone Is Storming the Wrong Castle
Santiago Capital Research
- Prevailing narratives about dollar collapse, BRICS alternatives, and gold dominance rest on real facts but reach incorrect conclusions about systemic ending.
- Framework suggests dollars and gold are complementary rather than competitive forces, contrary to mainstream bearish consensus positioning.
- Collapse case is defensible from data standpoint but misses critical mechanism driving real structural outcome that remains largely unpriced.
The Catiline Conspiracy
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- US Treasury yields rising unabated despite Treasury Secretary Bessent's attempts to control 'Bondzilla' as fixed income pressures persist.
- Second-order effects from Iran conflict driving diesel and food price increases alongside rising Treasury yields creating multiple economic pressure points.
- Structural parallels to Catiline Conspiracy in ancient Rome: severe socio-economic crises from massive debt and wealth inequality fueling political instability ahead of US and French elections.
Fed Watching
Andrew Sarna
- Rising oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher by 19 bps (10Y) despite Treasury intervention falling short of expectations.
- Core CPI came in slightly firmer than expected at 0.29% monthly (3.5% annualized), with three-month annualized rate jumping to 2.0%.
- Energy sector outperformance and higher commodity prices tighten financial conditions, reducing hedge fund precious metals positions.
Protecting Your Portfolio in a Troubled World
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Global institutions like dollar reserve status and US military primacy are arrangements rather than laws of nature, and they evolve to protect themselves until they fail.
- The world is trifurcating into three blocs: US and Western Hemisphere, China and Asia, and Russia-anchored Eurasia, with Europe caught in the middle.
- Military power projection has fundamentally shifted as drones and missiles can now neutralize carrier group-style superiority, irreversibly changing geopolitical calculations.
Weekly Macro Note: FOMC Week First Look, Technicals Update, Inflation Problem
MacroEdge Research
- FOMC expected to raise rates 25 basis points amid embedded inflation and the largest energy shock of the decade surpassing Russia-Ukraine war escalation.
- Inflation running hot since May is dampening the tech and AI trade, with Democrats adopting anti-data center messaging that will resonate with voters ahead of 2027.
- Labor market weakness is being masked by headline numbers while actual underlying data shows deterioration, supporting continued hawkish Fed positioning.
Walk in the Pines #414
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Weekly briefing compiles market charts, key quotes, and curated reads including FT analysis of AI slowdown and Telegraph piece on Trump's Venezuela oil strategy.
- Includes links to macro commentary on climate/El Niño impacts and insights on AI usage in portfolio management.
- Provides consolidated view of market discernment, podcast recommendations, and video market analysis from multiple contributors.
[Chart] Commodity Cycling
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Global economy has experienced significant reacceleration in 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and trade that directly impact commodity prices.
- Broad-based commodity strength driven by real-world growth, geopolitical tensions, and supply constraints has contributed to inflationary pressure and prompted global central bank rate hikes.
- Commodities serve as a leading indicator of economic cycle stage and macro risk backdrop, making them essential to monitor beyond inflation hedging.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Nominal 10-year yields are near their October 2023 peak while real yields have exceeded that level, shifting focus to whether this signals a regime shift or mean reversion.
- Historical analysis of 10-year yields versus nominal GDP growth reveals three distinct regimes; current reading is ambiguous between continuation of the 25-year anchored regime or early-stage shift.
- Recent CPI and PPI data releases suggest the real financial market risk is regime shift in interest rates, not inflation itself, with implications for risk asset rallies.
The Repo Dark Spot: Part I
Conks
- Fed has discontinued RMO liquidity injections just as major U.S. banks are reducing repo exposure due to higher capital costs driven by rising equity prices.
- Q1 2026 expected to initiate easing cycle as banks re-lever and Treasury debt limit forces TGA drawdown, flooding banks with reserves and pushing overnight rates lower.
- Multiple competing catalysts will continue to pressure money market rates in both directions through year-end and into 2026.
BoJ Preview: September Hike, Then Patience
Japan Macro Advisors
- BoJ expected to raise policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 with a 7-2 vote, largely priced into markets.
- Next rate hike timing remains uncertain; BoJ will likely move cautiously unless yen depreciation accelerates.
- Board member Sato Ayano may dissent despite being a relative moderate, adding nuance to the policy outlook.
FOMC Preview: Judgement Day
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Fed faces critical decision week with multiple central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, BOJ) and significant economic data releases.
- Financial Conditions Index has not meaningfully tightened despite rate hikes, complicating Fed's policy effectiveness.
- Supply chain risks remain prevalent in recent economic data and represent a key constraint on policy tightening outcomes.
Politics · 11
The US - China dance
Mark Farrington from Global Watchtower
- Xi and Trump's upcoming White House meeting signals the G2 framework approach prioritizing strategic stability through strength over confrontation.
- Trump views G2 as a temporary phase to force bedrock changes before his term expires, while Xi interprets it as US acknowledgment of parity.
- The new US National Security Strategy reflects practical realism accepting bipolarity and room for US-China coexistence within a shifted world order.
America Is in a Cynical Era, Not a Populist One
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- America is currently in a cynical political era characterized by public distrust in institutions rather than a populist movement demanding direct change.
- Unlike the postwar consensus where both parties accepted government's role in economic security and welfare, current cynicism reflects breakdown of shared frameworks.
- The psychological state of the public has shifted from general optimism about national direction to pervasive skepticism about government effectiveness and intentions.
Bab Luck 🪂 🤸♂️ Between Iraq And A Hard Place
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Houthis now controlling Bab al-Mandeb Strait in Red Sea, following earlier IRGC stranglehold on Strait of Hormuz, threatening global trade.
- Saudi Arabia requesting military support from Trump administration and Israel to counter Houthi aggression in critical shipping chokepoint.
- Broader geopolitical instability in Middle East affecting world economy with potential for escalation beyond current Saudi-focused targeting.
Mamdani’s Islamist Agenda Is Reshaping New York City
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- New York's Muslim mayor Zohran Mamdani has appointed at least ten Muslim agitators with alleged ties to CAIR to senior city positions.
- CAIR was named an unindicted co-conspirator in Hamas financing by the DOJ and designated a terrorist entity by the UAE and Texas.
- Critics argue Mamdani is using City Hall to empower anti-American fundamentalists who oppose Israel and American values.
Is College Still Worth It?
The Prof G Pod
- Confidence in higher education has fallen to 38% amid demographic challenges and ongoing debate over the college wage premium.
- The largest birth cohort in history just completed its first year of college, with every subsequent cohort projected to be smaller.
- Demographic cliff and declining institutional confidence represent systemic pressures beyond traditional enrollment trends affecting American higher ed.
A Generation that Doesn’t Know the Bible Won’t Understand the West
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Texas's requirement for biblical texts in schools aims to restore shared cultural literacy lost to the exclusion of religion from education.
- Biblical stories provided common moral vocabulary across generations regardless of individual faith, serving as cultural glue for society.
- Removing religious education has created an unintended consequence of severing generations from their cultural inheritance and shared understanding.
The Nasserisation of Saudi Arabia
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Houthi forces seized the strategic port city of Mocha in Yemen after Saudi-backed forces withdrew, marking an embarrassing reversal.
- Recent military setbacks contradict Saudi Arabia's claims of victories and raise questions about the effectiveness of its Yemen strategy.
- The developments suggest a shift in regional dynamics that disadvantages Saudi-aligned forces in the ongoing Yemeni conflict.
President Trump’s Date With Destiny?
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Trump-Xi talks on September 24 present potential opportunity for landmark AI collaboration deal that could reshape US-China tech policy.
- Public opinion turning against AI and Trump losing political allies could force him to abandon AI focus if market conditions deteriorate further.
- Trump has opportunity to negotiate AI cooperation framework with China focused on AI for good rather than chip deals, potentially earning Nobel Prize consideration.
The True Impact Of 9/11
John Aziz
- The 25th anniversary of 9/11 prompts reflection on its long-term damage to America and the West beyond the immediate attacks and subsequent wars.
- Gallup polling data shows a sharp decline in American pride metrics since 9/11, with rising discontent replacing confidence.
- The author argues 9/11 may represent the moment the West began to decline, with subsequent societal pathologies flowing from a loss of confidence in Western supremacy.
#4 September 11 and the Cowardly Refusal to Name Islamic Terror
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- CBC's Director of Journalistic Standards ordered newsroom staff to avoid the word 'terrorist' even when describing September 11 massacres, instead using euphemisms like 'hijackings' and 'passenger jet crashes.'
- Author argues this represents ideological capture where bureaucratic euphemism replaces reality, comparing it to calling Pearl Harbor an aviation incident.
- West cannot confront Islamist terrorism effectively if it refuses to name it plainly, framing linguistic avoidance as a civilizational survival issue.
Brandon Johnson’s failing record on ethics reform
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has not led a single significant ethics reform during his nearly four years in office.
- Johnson's definition of ethics focuses narrowly on equitable service distribution rather than traditional anti-corruption measures.
- This lack of reform is notable in a city historically known for pay-to-play corruption culture.
Energy · 10
Uranium: Russia's Acid Ban and the Kazakh Question
Asymmetric Research
- Russia's temporary ban on sulphuric acid exports until year-end impacts Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer which relies on Russian acid.
- The restriction creates supply chain vulnerability for nuclear fuel production tied to geopolitical constraints.
Towards a Post-Oil Materials Economy?
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Global oil supply curtailments creating urgency to develop alternatives to petroleum-based plastics for packaging, textiles and consumer goods.
- Emerging breakthroughs in bio-based plastics include corn zein plantymers and bamboo substitutes that offer performance parity with traditional plastics.
- New materials innovations align with renewable energy systems and enable localized production, positioning a potential materials economy shift over coming decades.
Portfolio Update
The Haymaker Team
- Diesel prices have doubled to over $200/barrel, far exceeding crude oil prices and posing systemic risk to the global economy.
- Financial markets remain dangerously complacent about the energy crisis despite the most severe loss of supply on record.
- Elevated diesel costs threaten to trigger stagflation given diesel's pervasive role in global economic activity.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-vol coal slipped 90¢/t to $283.40/t while tier-two hard coking coal fell $1.10/t to $245.25/t as seaborne markets eased.
- India's PHCC price held steady at $311.10/t cfr due to public holiday, with second-tier grade down just 5¢/t.
- SGX futures showed mixed signals: September contract jumped $8/t to $276 while forward months rolled over with October through December declining.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- WTI crude surging with key resistance at $109.50 and critical support at $93.00 as Iran conflict escalates with no near-term diplomatic solution.
- Houthis captured Mocha port and strategic Red Sea islands in Bab-el-Mandeb, threatening critical shipping chokepoint and oil supply routes.
- Saudi Yanbu pipeline (7 million bpd capacity) remains shut after Iranian proxy group attacks, significantly constraining crude oil exports.
The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- China maintained economic resilience despite historic crude import cuts by strategically managing refined product mix across sectors.
- Export restrictions protected domestic jet fuel and gasoline supplies while naphtha and LPG imports saw larger cuts, creating product-level imbalances.
- Jet fuel demand collapse driven by refinery prioritization and flight cancellations explains most but not all apparent demand contraction across products.
“The end is the beginning is the end”
Irina Slav on energy
- Italy's PM Meloni announced plans to boost domestic oil and gas production, rejecting Brussels' transition mandates.
- Energy markets show persistent volatility with diesel prices, tanker incidents, and pipeline disruptions dominating headlines.
- Despite near-term doom narratives, there are pragmatic policy reversals emerging in Europe's energy strategy.
Oil and Gas Research - Weekly Energy Macro Note - September 13, 2026
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- WTI moved from mid-80s to fundamentally and technically positive levels with no material signs of demand deterioration despite tightening supply conditions.
- Houthi/Saudi situation escalating and lack of progress on Hormuz corridor support case for raising WTI and product price targets into year-end.
- President retains single strategic tool (final SPR release) but likely being cautious about deployment timing as global inventory levels remain depleted.
LNG Update
Grizzle Research and Quant
- U.S. LNG output surging in 2026 with 3-4 billion cubic feet above 2025 levels, with major export projects expected to start between now and end of 2027.
- Data center AI demand emerging as critical variable for natural gas prices, with actual demand consistently exceeding forecasts since ChatGPT launch.
- Global gas prices above Iran conflict highs; IEA repeatedly delaying Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline, creating persistent LNG arbitrage opportunity as hedge against extended U.S.-Iran conflict.
Deep Value Stock with Upside to Surging LNG Prices
Bison Insights
- European natural gas prices (TTF) at US$28.09/Mcf are nearly 10x US Henry Hub prices and could spike further if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.
- Low European gas storage combined with restricted gas-to-fuel oil switching creates conditions for another potential price super-spike.
- A featured company owns European gas assets plus North American oil and gas holdings, offering upside from TTF price increases with portfolio diversification protection.
Culture · 9
The firework attack on my Maida Vale synagogue is horrifying but not surprising
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Lauderdale Road Synagogue in Maida Vale was attacked with fireworks during Rosh Hashanah, marking an escalation in antisemitic incidents.
- The author draws connections between rising antisemitism, recent similar attacks on synagogues, and timing amid government sanctions discussions on Israel.
- Personal reflection highlights the paradox of seeking safety while observing Jewish holidays amid increasing hostile acts against UK Jewish communities.
Macklemore Booted From Ed Sheeran’s American Tour
John Aziz
- Macklemore was removed from Ed Sheeran's tour after turning his stage appearance into an anti-Israeli protest, repeatedly stating 'Free Palestine' to stadium crowds.
- Macklemore clarified in response that he, Sheeran, and Pink are not victims but rather acknowledged Palestinian casualties as the true victims.
- The incident highlights tensions between artist activism, tour dynamics, and political speech in mainstream entertainment venues.
Viral Lemon Poppy Seed Protein Rolls
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe for viral lemon poppy seed protein rolls using cottage cheese-based dough with added protein flour and monkfruit sweetener.
- Instructions include rolling, filling, and air-frying or oven-baking with lemon-butter filling and cottage cheese frosting.
- Ingredients optimized for high protein content using alternative sweeteners and blended cottage cheese.
Does TV actually suck now?
The Substack Post
- Claims that modern television quality has declined are part of a centuries-long pattern of premature media eulogies.
- Reduced attention spans and preference for fragmented content consumption do not necessarily indicate an end to quality programming.
- Historical precedent suggests new consumption formats and perceived content decline are recurring themes that often prove overstated.
Heartland Masala: This is How We Party
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Auyon and Jyoti Mukharji, authors of Heartland Masala, are teaching a Milk Street livestream workshop on Indian street food and small bites.
- Jyoti immigrated from India in the late 1970s and began teaching Indian cooking classes from her Kansas home in 2010.
- The post includes a podcast conversation between mother and son discussing their culinary perspectives and a recipe for Arhar Daal.
Roast Chicken Ratatouille
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Roast chicken in a pot is a flexible cooking concept found across cuisines from French to Moroccan to Filipino traditions.
- Red peppers reduced to sauce consistency add remarkable depth of flavor similar to onions and can be doubled in recipes.
- Dark meat requires cooking to 195°F while white meat reaches 175°F, allowing for removal of breasts mid-cook while legs finish cooking.
Steak Tostadas part 1: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Recipe inspired by collaboration with ex-head chef of Dorian in London featuring thick-sliced beef on crispy tostada base.
- Two complementary salsas serve as the centerpiece: charred tomatillo salsa providing sharp, punchy, creamy notes and salsa macha offering rich, smoky, spicy elements.
- Yields extra salsa usable with chips, chicken, steak, fish and other dishes; part two recipe planned to use leftover salsas.
Leave Perfectionism Behind. Choose Excellence.
Sara
- Perfectionism, while often praised as a strength, can lead to burnout and diminished enjoyment of achievements.
- The question posed is whether relentless pursuit of perfection is truly worth the personal and relational costs incurred.
- Article explores reframing high standards as excellence rather than perfectionism for sustainable success.
Herby Grilled Chicken with California Grapes & Celery Salad
Primal Gourmet
AI · 9
The Anthropic IPO: Top 10 Stocks Positioned to Benefit Most 💸
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic planning Nasdaq IPO valued at $2 trillion+, contrasting with OpenAI's decision to stay private this year.
- Anthropic's Q2 revenue surged 14x year-over-year to $11.5B with annualized revenue reaching $65B by end of July.
- Gross margins exceed 80% before revenue sharing and model training costs, signaling strong unit economics.
Gambling With Our Lives, Or The Stock Market
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Sam Altman and Dario Amodei signed AI safety warning while simultaneously pursuing aggressive IPO timelines, raising credibility questions.
- Anthropic reportedly moving forward with Nasdaq debut next month despite CEO warnings of potential AI-driven billions in damages within 6-12 months.
- Skepticism arises that public safety messaging may serve as better optics than admitting investor appetite for losing trillion-dollar valuations is limited.
The AI Industry Has Finally Discovered the Hardest Test: Politics
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposes slowing AI capability improvements while developing safer approaches, citing concerns about rapid progress and loss of control.
- Three-stage safety framework proposed: independent evaluators embedded in AI companies, coordination between democratic-world labs, and eventual inter-governmental oversight.
- Recent incidents like Hugging Face hacks and unexpected AI breakthroughs demonstrate companies may not fully control their own systems.
In 1997 nobody could tell you why you'd want a gigabit connection. AI is in 1997.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Apple's 'good enough' AI argument overlooks that demand for intelligence isn't fixed but expands with capability, much like bandwidth did.
- In 1997 gigabit connections seemed worthless because applications hadn't been invented yet; AI faces similar situation where transformative uses remain undiscovered.
- True question post-Apple launch isn't whether everyday AI gets good enough, but what new demands emerge once capability reaches certain thresholds.
AI Is Writing the Internet
Demography Unplugged
- More than one-third of newly created webpages now show significant signs of AI authorship, up from 1% pre-ChatGPT.
- AI writing patterns are reshaping internet language through increased use of Oxford commas (+63%), em dashes (+93%), and uncommon vocabulary (+118%).
- Rapid proliferation of AI-generated content across the web represents a fundamental shift in how online information is produced.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- AI slowdown calls from OpenAI and Anthropic leadership are perceived as power plays ahead of IPOs rather than genuine safety concerns, according to Burry's analysis.
- Large Language Models and Small Language Models lack true reasoning capacity, with language and reason requiring each other to reach actual understanding.
- Sophisticated frontier language models continue advancing rapidly and are inherently difficult to slow down regardless of industry posturing on safety.
Two cheers (out of three) for Dario Amodei
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Anthropic's Dario Amodei published consequential essay advocating for pacing of AI development, with Sam Altman and Elon Musk tentatively endorsing slowdown.
- Marcus praises Amodei's transparency commitment and call for meaningful teeth to AI governance agreements, but notes lack of actual control mechanisms within AI companies.
- Author expresses cautious optimism tempered by skepticism about whether commitments will translate into substantive regulatory action rather than marketing hyperbole.
Executive Briefing: Ordinary AI Got 280x Cheaper. That Is Not the Same as Reaching the People Who Need It.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Despite AI capability costs dropping 280x, access barriers remain for populations that need it most.
- US-China competition over AI infrastructure raises questions about safety coordination and equitable development.
- Anthropic and OpenAI have committed to outside evaluators for AI safety, though implementation details and effectiveness remain uncertain.
Your agents need a company brain
Khe Hy
- Stripe built an internal company brain agent with organizational context and security controls that stays within their systems.
- Salesforce made its UI optional, signaling that Systems of Record combined with MCPs represent the future of SaaS architecture.
- Data architecture quality pre-dates AI implementation and fundamentally matters for building effective agent systems.