★ Priority · 9
Tear Down This Museum! Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Critical theory's rejection of hierarchical value judgments has infiltrated art institutions, causing the newly renovated LACMA to abandon its encyclopedic mission.
- The Western canon's devaluation as a product of racism and colonialism, rather than objective aesthetic truth, represents an ideological orthodoxy among art elites.
- Columnist Caitlin Flanagan argues that dismissing artistic merit in favor of ideological purity has fundamentally compromised major museums' cultural function.
A Vicious Double Standard in Publishing. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Simon & Schuster maintains a double standard by supporting Palestinian American novelist Susan Abulhawa despite her antisemitic rhetoric while canceling events for Jewish writers.
- Jewish authors report facing pressure to downplay their identity and encountering a publishing industry reluctant to defend them.
- Publishers must apply free expression principles consistently or abandon the claim of defending free speech over endorsement.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Weak NFP data (-23k vs 80k expected) is fueling dovish Fed expectations and market upside momentum.
- Chinese robotics leader Unitree's $9 billion IPO next week may catalyze broader robotics sector interest.
- US government support for domestic robotics industry combined with IPO activity could ignite retail investor enthusiasm.
TGIF: With the Exception of Pearl Harbor
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Newsletter contains humor about West Coast vs. East Coast differences and innovation attitudes.
- Free Press is crowdsourcing their first Forum Book Club pick among three literary classics.
- D.C. statues are being regilded after decades of patina, sparking commentary on the current administration's aesthetic priorities.
đź’¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Software sector rotation accelerating with massive earnings reactions; Atlassian (TEAM) skyrocketed 40% in after-hours with record enterprise deals.
- CEO emphasized AI as transformational for the company, reiterating same message from previous quarter suggesting potential messaging fatigue.
- Market rotation into software signals strong confidence in enterprise AI adoption and digital transformation trends.
đź’¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Initial claims remain low but other data suggests downside risk to upcoming employment print despite being unpredictable.
- Softer jobs data could give Federal Reserve Chair Warsh rationale for rate cuts, potentially supporting metals if odds shift.
- Iraq emerging as potential next geopolitical flashpoint with 20 million Arbaeen pilgrims heading there, adding to oil market complexity.
(Idea) Suncor Energy - Strong Q2 Results Despite Operational Challenges
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Suncor Energy generated $5.329B adjusted funds from operations in Q2, matching 2022 record despite 50,000-60,000 bpd production loss from weather.
- Extreme precipitation in Fort McMurray (wettest quarter in 30+ years) tested operational resilience while margins remained strong.
- Adjusted FFOE per share reached record $4.52, demonstrating efficient capital deployment despite operational headwinds.
Douglas Murray: Tucker Carlson’s 10-Point Plan Is All About One Thing
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Tucker Carlson has promoted forming a third political party with figures like MTG, Thomas Massie, and Joe Kent, spending 98 minutes on a 10-point 'plan to save America.'
- Carlson's framework emphasizes vague ideals—fairness, sovereignty, beauty, health, honesty, optimism, wisdom, decency, unity—that lack substantive policy detail.
- Douglas Murray suggests Carlson may be testing political viability rather than seriously pursuing office, given his documented lack of discipline and patience.
Ferg’s Finds (PGM issue)
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- PGM markets show declining above-ground stocks combined with steeply declining mine life across major platinum producers, signaling supply tightness.
- WPIC projects platinum deficits of 966 koz in 2025 and 297 koz in 2026, reducing above-ground stocks to cover only three months of global demand.
- Hand-to-mouth platinum supply dynamics (excluding China) indicate potential structural supply constraints ahead.
Politics · 14
Tolerance, surrender, and Britain’s dangerous blind spot for Islamic extremism
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Liberal tolerance cannot mean surrendering the principles of democracy, pluralism, and equal citizenship when confronted by ideologies that reject them.
- Western progressives' alignment with movements hostile to Jews, Christians, women, LGBTQ individuals, and liberal democracy deserves greater scrutiny than it receives.
- Britain has been dangerously reluctant to engage in honest conversation about Islamic extremism and its incompatibility with progressive values.
The Oxford Union debate clip that broke the internet — and what happened behind the scenes
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- An Oxford Union debate on 'The West Should Be Suspicious of Islam' generated millions of views after selective clips leaked and the full footage was released.
- The debate sparked global conversation about Islam, with the Oxford Union initially withholding the release before full videos became available.
- Discussion includes BBC's Gaza documentary scandal and the UK's two-tier approach to law and media enforcement.
UN data shows: no famine in Gaza. Barely any reporting in mainstream news publications
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UN Gaza nutrition survey data shows acute malnutrition in under-fives at 0.2–0.8%, contradicting widespread famine narratives and below pre-war baseline levels.
- Gaza's acute malnutrition rate is significantly lower than neighboring countries (Egypt 2.9%, Jordan 2.0%, Syria 12%), disproving claims of regional humanitarian crisis.
- Politicians and campaigners continue describing Gaza as facing starvation and announcing aid while UN nutrition data shows no population-level acute malnutrition.
Will Israel Elect A Mizrahi Prime Minister?
John Aziz
- Israel's October 27 election features an unusually fragmented Knesset with Netanyahu's Likud competing against Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, with recent polls showing competitive or varying results.
- The electoral system's full proportional representation makes coalition-building unpredictable and could represent a tipping point for Israel and Palestinian relations.
- The question of whether a Mizrahi prime minister will emerge suggests demographic and identity shifts within Israeli politics.
Why A Democratic Socialist in the White House Is No Longer Unthinkable
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- 62% of Americans aged 18-29 now hold favorable views of socialism, a dramatic shift from historical dread of such ideologies.
- The Democratic Socialists of America have evolved from shunning communists five years ago to embracing them, signaling ideological drift.
- History's most catastrophic political failures tied to socialism and communism are being repackaged as solutions to contemporary problems among younger generations.
Why Washington had to Save Tokyo
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- U.S. Treasury intervention to stabilize the yen at 40-year lows reveals Washington now underwrites both military and financial stability for allies.
- Japan's currency crisis exemplifies how geopolitical escalation is reshaping global economics beyond traditional conflict domains.
- The move signals broader questions about sustainability of U.S. financial guarantees and potential feedback loops into Treasury yields and borrowing costs.
This Just Happened
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Syrian President al-Sharaa's meeting with Iraqi Kurdistan president in Damascus signals potential political settlement reshaping Kurdish nationalism in the Levant.
- The diplomatic event occurred with minimal international attention despite potential consequences for regional geopolitics.
- Understanding requires parsing multiple competing Kurdish movements and interests across Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran.
A career journalist covering spies and national security was hit with a $1 million defamation lawsuit. He turned t…
Substack
- Substack Defender successfully defeated a $1M defamation lawsuit against national security reporter Jeff Stein over reporting on Trump official Keith Bass.
- Case dismissal with prejudice reinforces legal protection for journalists publishing sources-backed reporting on public figures.
- Highlights platform-provided legal support as growing tool for independent press against litigation threats targeting investigative journalism.
ICE Age
Scott Galloway
- Trump administration's ICE operations constitute American secret police apparatus with documented extrajudicial killings and concentration camp-like detention conditions.
- Mass deportation campaign targeting immigrants, journalists, and academics as 'enemy within' distraction from real threats like geopolitical adversaries and inequality.
- Deportation-driven labor chilling will likely prove more inflationary than tariffs by destabilizing agriculture, services, and construction sectors.
Dear Europe: It's Not Racist to Have A Rational Immigration Policy
Kaizen Asiedu
- Spain faced a historic mass migration surge with 50,000-60,000 people crossing into Ceuta over three days, with at least 72 deaths recorded.
- Spanish authorities rapidly deployed military and physical barriers, returning nearly all arrivals within days, demonstrating effective border management.
- Kaizen argues Western discourse on immigration is intellectually deficient and that rational, security-based immigration policy should not be conflated with racism.
The Weird Effect Of Claiming To Speak On Behalf Of A Whole Group Of People
John Aziz
- Western leftists frequently attempt to speak on behalf of Palestinians and the working poor despite being well-educated and financially stable themselves.
- This creates cognitive dissonance when highly educated advocates claim to represent groups they do not belong to, mirroring historical tensions in Marxist movements.
- The phenomenon reflects broader contradictions in how privileged groups claim representational authority over marginalized populations.
A Conversation with Avi Abelow: Israel is on the Front Lines Defending the West
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Avi Abelow argues Israel is on the front lines of a civilizational war against Iran, its proxies, and allies.
- Defending Israel is positioned as key to restoring pro-Western consensus and defending the West against hostile actors.
- Geopolitical framing emphasizes Israel's strategic importance alongside U.S. interests against China, Russia, and North Korea.
The Majority of Muslims and The Left Despise The Truth
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Author explores personal journey of shedding religious and cultural indoctrination from Islam to Judaism through intellectual examination.
- Reflects on how childhood teaching of patriotism and religious superiority was presented as a path to contentment rather than truth-seeking.
- Examines tension between accepting inherited identity and pursuing intellectual honesty across religious and cultural frameworks.
Is World War III Beginning? The Strategic Logic of Global War Expansion
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Ukraine's strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea raises legitimate questions about escalation pathways to global conflict.
- Regional wars become global through deliberate strategic choice rather than accident—leaders expand battlefields when they assess greater advantage than containment.
- War expansion decisions reflect calculated military judgment, not impulsive loss of control.
Markets · 14
The Week That Matters (3rd Aug-7th Aug, 2026)
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- Victor Niederhoffer's 1998 Thailand blow-up illustrates how markets don't simply reflect fundamentals but can amplify crises through reflexive feedback loops.
- Niederhoffer underestimated reflexivity and Thailand's structural vulnerabilities, failing to account for how currency weakness, falling asset prices, and capital flight compound valuation opportunities into systemic crises.
- Modern investors may be making the inverse mistake about Japan by underestimating similar reflexive mechanisms operating in that market.
July 2026 BA Real Estate update
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's Senate voted to maintain rural land caps, blocking a key door to foreign direct investment in property.
- The Central Bank refused to release reserves funding mortgages, and judges are increasingly ruling in favor of mortgage delinquents at private banks' expense.
- These three simultaneous policy decisions are diverging transaction counts from mortgage volumes, signaling structural decline in the Buenos Aires real estate market.
Wisdom of the crowds: prediction markets are more accurate than stock analysts
Bob Pisani
- Academic research shows prediction market participants on Polymarket significantly outperform professional stock analysts in forecasting earnings.
- A Federal Reserve study previously indicated prediction markets have better success rates than Wall Street pundits in forecasting outcomes.
- The wisdom of crowds approach offers superior forecasting to traditional analyst consensus, with important implications for investors.
Why Is Wall Street Surging Again?
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Chair Warsh's FOMC policy update is expected to support stocks near-term while putting pressure on bonds.
- Monday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement proved benign for markets, with deficit spending covered through bills rather than long-term coupons.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 on rising order books and lower inventories, signaling economic momentum alongside US-Japan currency intervention.
OpenAI: The Quality of Cash Ledger
Cape Fear Advisors
- OpenAI has ~$50-90B in cash against $1.4T in committed spending obligations, a 1:20 ratio highlighting extreme dependency on future funding.
- The analysis introduces 'quality of cash' framework to distinguish between actual cash, prepayments, claims, and marked valuations on balance sheets.
- OpenAI's $852B funding round valuation and $50B in marked stakes represent different accounting categories than committed obligations, presenting a complex financial picture.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Q1 2026 revenue of $6.96B (+4.4% YoY) and adjusted operating margin of 46.9% show strong underlying business despite reported GAAP loss.
- Q2 $10.5B write-down reflects acquisition integration but company raised full-year product sales guidance to $30.1B, signaling confidence in organic growth.
- HIV and oncology divisions both posting growth alongside 52-week stock range of $107.75-$157.29 at current ~$133 price.
YWR: Dirty Dividend stock thoughts
PAIDErik@YWR
- European banks are transitioning from stability to growth, with steady 15% EPS growth driven by 7% revenue growth and share buybacks.
- Bank valuations have re-rated from 6x to 10x P/E as investors recognize the model's value, with further upside from lending and capital markets growth.
- Half-year results from Unicredit, Barclays, Santander, and Glencore show the Dirty Dividends portfolio is performing as the thesis predicted.
Deeply desperate times
Irina Slav on energy
- US markets higher ahead of NFP data release with limited new catalysts from news sources.
- Post includes market commentary mixing finance casino metaphors with humorous observations on market structure.
- Brief market commentary without substantial analytical depth.
Investing in Argentina is Back in Vogue: Chart Pack for Adventurous Investors
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Argentine equities are experiencing renewed investor interest as catalysts trigger phase transitions in price action.
- LatAm remains significantly undervalued relative to the U.S. market, with Argentina among the least undervalued in the region.
- Chart analysis of Cameco and Argentine equities illustrates how catalysts drive regime changes from consolidation to trend expansion.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets closed slightly higher capping a solid week; S&P +14bp, 10-year yield at 4.67%, BTC +60bp.
- European markets mildly higher led by tech; Asia mixed with Japan +64bp, China +1%, Korea -60bp.
- Geopolitical risks include Iran's Hormuz plan and Beijing testing tech truce; employment and consumer credit data expected.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attacked Wall Street Journal Fed reporter Nick Timaros and other financial journalists as 'stenographers' incapable of real economic analysis.
- Ron Insana defends Fed coverage as a specialized discipline requiring deep knowledge of monetary policy, banking systems, and market mechanics, not mere note-taking.
- The incident reflects broader tension between Treasury leadership and financial media over the quality of policy analysis and Fed reporting.
The Yen’s Hail Mary
Peruvian Bull
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was photographed with a notepad directing the purchase of $5-10 billion in Japanese yen, executed within hours by the New York Fed.
- Japan funded its side of the yen-purchase operation using the Federal Reserve's rarely-used FIMA repo facility instead of selling Treasuries on open markets.
- Bessent publicly signaled this unconventional funding mechanism will be used again, marking a significant shift in how allied central banks coordinate currency interventions.
ZTEST Electronics Inc. (CSE: ZTE / OTCID: ZTSTF) Hitting the Reset Button
CanadianValueInvestors Substack
- ZTEST Electronics (CSE: ZTE) is a small Ontario contract electronics manufacturer specializing in low and medium-volume printed circuit board assembly.
- Company recently became profitable after years of underperformance, signaling successful turnaround execution.
- New board and management team is positioned to deploy accumulated cash capital toward growth initiatives.
It's Time To Be Bullish On Compute, Again.
Capitalist-Letters
- Great investors build mental models across disciplines and apply them to market decisions—Munger, Lynch, and Buffett exemplify this approach.
- Successful investors combine insights from history, law, and other fields to develop robust decision-making frameworks.
- Buffett adapted his strategy over time based on capital scale, demonstrating flexibility within a disciplined model-based approach.
Culture · 13
FAIR Screening: 15 Days
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- FAIR is screening '15 Days,' a documentary examining America's pandemic school closures and the ideology behind extended lockdowns.
- The film reveals evidence of manipulative bureaucratic decision-making prioritizing officials' interests over children's welfare.
- The screening directly challenges the sanitized narrative that authorities 'did the best they could' with available information.
You're not a New Yorker until the developers come knocking
Amanda Hesser and Christene Barberich from Homeward
- Amanda Hesser and Christene Barberich discuss navigating unexpected neighborhood development and home renovation challenges in New York City.
- The piece explores themes of accepting change and loss of control when facing major real estate disruptions in urban environments.
- Features insights on managing personal resilience and adaptation amid property development pressures.
An Open Letter To Peter Himmelman
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Author describes transformative spiritual experience engaging Peter Himmelman's wisdom as relief from post-October 7th existential distress.
- Reframes antisemitism from perceived jealousy/resentment toward Jewish accomplishment to deeper theological category of superhuman contempt.
- Uses Rabbi Wolpe's dual framing of Jews as simultaneously subhuman and superhuman to process contemporary hatred and spiritual recovery.
A Saint for a Restless Age: Finding God in the Desert
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Serbian-Jordanian film 'A Cross in the Desert' portrays 10th-century ascetic Saint Petka embracing radical sacrifice over material self-actualization.
- Offers counternarrative to Western cultural emphasis on comfort and personal achievement through story of purposeful suffering and spiritual devotion.
- Film exemplifies niche international production offering meaning-seeking alternative to mainstream streaming narratives.
Our Inaugural Trip to Japan
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Milk Street Cooking School conducted an inaugural culinary trip to Japan in June visiting renowned restaurants and artisanal producers.
- The journey included experiences with master chefs, knife forging, sake tasting, tea preparation, and visits to traditional fermentation and soy sauce producers.
- 2027 trip dates will be announced following the success of this inaugural experience.
Thugs, concentrated erotic insanity, benefits of coffee, educating electricians, was Freud right?
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Casual conversation in cities is declining, yet remains essential for liberal values through 'stranger exposure therapy' across class and cultural lines.
- Cities function as schools of tolerance through repeated small collisions with different people that humanize seemingly anonymous urban life.
- Author's forthcoming book 'The New Dark Ages' explores these themes and will be discussed at upcoming events.
Is a Multibillion-Dollar Company Smarter than a 6th Grader?
Ted Gioia
- Major corporations, including luxury German automakers, are adopting 'audience capture and control' strategies from digital platforms to lock in and monetize consumers.
- BMW's implementation of subscription and aggressive monetization features on vehicles exemplifies how traditional companies now mimic predatory digital business models.
- Ted Gioia argues this abusive approach should trigger executive accountability, but instead executives are rewarded for aggressive customer extraction schemes.
An author’s $2 million book deal was pulled over suspected AI use. Where does publishing go from here?
The Substack Post
- Jerry Falade's $2 million book deal was withdrawn by agents over unverifiable AI use allegations.
- This is the third major publishing incident involving AI accusations in 2024, with racial disparity raising concerns.
- Falade denies charges and has obtained legal counsel amid credibility crisis in publishing industry.
Slop art
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Essay explores evolution from childhood Blockbuster movie rentals to adult film appreciation and study.
- Progression from simple entertainment to complex artistic analysis through directors like Kubrick demonstrates maturation.
- Personal narrative examines how repeated viewing and director's commentary deepen film understanding and appreciation.
A Stanford postdoc's longevity lies
Inside Longevity®
- Stanford postdoc Kelly Cogan-Yoo falsely claimed board certification in neurosurgery and U.S. medical license on Substack.
- Verification by California Medical Board and American Board of Medical Specialties found no evidence of claimed credentials.
- Case highlights growing credibility crisis as doctors misrepresent qualifications in longevity and health advice content.
High-Protein Stuffed Onions
Primal Gourmet
- High-protein stuffed onions are made by blanching onion layers, filling with seasoned beef and rice, then braising in tomato broth.
- The recipe is high-protein, low-calorie, meal-prep friendly, and tastes better the next day as flavors develop.
- Cooking on a Traeger grill adds smokiness; the dish combines traditional stuffed vegetable techniques with an onion-based twist.
Your Bloods Came Back Fine. Here Are The Two Sentences For Your Next Appointment.
Nobody Talks About This
- SSRIs carry 3.28 times the risk of orgasmic dysfunction versus placebo, based on pooled analysis of 13 randomized trials covering 5,941 adults.
- Sexual side effects are underreported in clinical trials because patients often do not raise the subject, dragging reported rates below actual incidence.
- Doctors frequently miss discussions of sexual dysfunction during appointments, leaving patients without proper support or alternatives.
Communist Party Techno, The Chartbook & The Refinery
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- A visitor to China discovers a surprisingly vibrant consumer experience with efficient logistics and affordable high-end services.
- The essay contrasts expectations (boring, commercial) with reality (cultural depth, modern infrastructure, engaging nightlife).
- Detailed vignettes of Shanghai rooftop bars and Jingdezhen meals illustrate China's contemporary social and consumer landscape.
Trading · 7
Gold is on the Move
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Gold broke out of its multi-week balance range despite elevated yields and a firm dollar, signaling potential upside momentum.
- The author went long $GDX (gold miners) weeks ago and added direct gold exposure via $UGL on Thursday at key technical support levels.
- Strategy involves holding GDX longer-term while using UGL as a tactical trade to pay for profits, with careful monitoring of resistance levels to distinguish constructive dips from trade invalidation.
Trading Post August 7, 2026
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry added to Freddie Mac (FMCC) at $5.43, reinforcing his December thesis on GSE value creation.
- While not guaranteed quick gains, delays in Fannie and Freddie IPOs actually benefit long-term investors as companies grow book value by double digits.
- Current sentiment could drive further declines if IPO progress stalls in the next year, potentially creating buying opportunities for disciplined investors.
The more you trade, the less you make
Bob Pisani
- Morningstar's 2025 'Mind the Gap' report found US mutual fund/ETF aggregate returns averaged 9.9% annually, but actual investor returns lagged at 8.7% per year.
- The 1.2 percentage-point annual gap reflects investor underperformance caused by timing market entries/exits, withdrawals, and overtrading relative to buy-and-hold strategies.
- Analysis of 23,000 funds over 10 years shows investors underperformed their holdings by approximately 12% cumulatively through behavioral trading patterns.
Market Analysis and Trades for 8/7
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- NQ declined overnight with a gap down to 29269-29369 target range following failed 30069 resistance.
- Market formed a 3-day balance above bullish RTH gap, with cover response on initial weakness.
- Technical analysis identifies key support and resistance levels for ongoing NQ price action.
Trading Post 8/6/2026 Two Shorts, 3 Earnings Reports with 1 Add & 2 Holds
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry shorted Oracle (ORCL) at $144.63 and Nebius (NBIS) at $211.77 due to off-balance sheet liability concerns.
- Companies have gorged on uncommenced leases up to 11 years with values at 18x annual sales, masking true debt.
- Multiple earnings reports analyzed including Flutter, Mercado Libre, Fiserv, and Zoetis with position adjustments made.
You’re Too Good at Rescuing Yourself So You Keep Creating Problems to Solve
Sara
- Some traders self-sabotage by recreating crisis scenarios because they perform best under pressure and stress.
- The pattern is self-reinforcing—recovery success provides no signal to change behavior, leaving fundamental habits intact.
- Stability requires different skills than crisis-solving: maintaining standards, tolerating repetition, and resisting the pull toward familiar urgency.
The Mispriced Assets Super Bowl
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Three major holdings (Groupon, Corsair, StepStone) are reporting earnings within fifteen minutes, creating significant volatility opportunity.
- Groupon's staggered release and commentary creates a unique window for price movement before full information is available.
- The post signals concentrated portfolio risk with Groupon representing 18% of model portfolio and over 50% of net worth.
Energy · 7
OXY's Plan for Financial FREEDOM
Open Insights
- Under new CEO Richard Jackson, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) continues the previous strategy of generating double 2025 cash flow while achieving debt-free status.
- The company's Q2 2026 results show a methodical approach to financial freedom, though slightly slower than preferred.
- OXY's long-term plan demonstrates how disciplined cash management can transform the company's financial position significantly.
Oil Context Weekly (W32)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Brent crude fell $8/barrel to finish around $82/barrel following Trump's cancellation of planned strikes on Iran.
- Headline promises of an imminent Hormuz deal further pressured oil contracts, though a concrete deal has yet to materialize.
- Weekly analysis tracks flat prices, calendar spreads, refined products, positioning data, and Middle East shipping flows.
China Puts a Floor Under Coking Coal
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium coking coal rose $1.70/t to $216.35/t with increased price discovery after weeks of weak offers and subdued demand.
- Coking coal futures gained across the curve with January 2027 climbing $2.50/t to $225.50/t, suggesting a floor is forming after the June correction.
- China is providing constructive signals with CFR north China PLV prices edging higher, and the contango curve pricing gradual recovery rather than immediate supply tightening.
Put Crudely, It's Refining Stupid
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Global energy crisis is fundamentally a refining problem, not crude availability—approximately 5 million barrels per day of refining capacity destroyed by war.
- Iran's bombed refineries, Russian refining losses from Ukrainian drones, and collapsed Chinese fuel exports leave U.S. as last major supplier, running at 97% capacity.
- Trump's promise of $2.50 gasoline via Hormuz deal is unrealistic; constraint is ruined refining infrastructure not the waterway itself.
Midweek Macro Note: The Energy Situation This Week, NFP Preview - July, Asia Update Part 8
MacroEdge Research
- MacroEdge launching new Oil and Gas Research division to navigate complex global energy landscape and inventory dynamics.
- Mid-week analysis notes euphoria fading as market manipulation becomes less effective; oil inventory situation in both U.S. and globally remains critical.
- July marked first time in decades for specific energy metric, signaling significant structural shift in energy markets.
Coal Gangue Recycling in China
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Coal gangue (mining waste) recycling in China's Shanxi province converts waste into high-value construction materials, exemplifying circular economy principles.
- The thermoeconomic framework views such interventions as negentropic processes that reduce disorder and improve energy return on investment (EROEI) at system-wide scale.
- China's coal gangue recycling model demonstrates replicable sustainable development practices for resource-constrained Global South economies facing legacy waste challenges.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Core Natural Resources beat EPS estimates significantly due to $88 million insurance recovery from Leer South combustion event and lower-than-expected operating costs.
- Company reported $1.14 billion revenue matching analyst forecasts, but adjusted EPS came in at $2.51 versus $1.01 estimate.
- Strong quarterly performance driven by insurance recovery, operational efficiency gains, and 200,000+ additional shares repurchased.