★ Priority · 15
Market Update & Signals 9/24/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Global bond yields surged to multi-decade highs with TLT at lowest price since 2002 launch; markets now pricing 100bps of Fed hikes over next 12 months.
- Historical analysis shows 10 of 13 prior comparable yield spikes led to buying opportunities or more upside, with average time-to-bottom around one week.
- SPY indicated gap down to 763 with support at 760; bond sentiment in capitulation range suggests potential reversal opportunity despite current volatility.
SHORT SELLING IS HARD
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Short selling progresses through three stages: initial belief it's easy, painful realization it's hard (Nvidia, Bitcoin, Tesla all destroyed short sellers), and mature view of shorting as a targeted tool.
- Index shorting is inherently flawed since indices are structurally designed to appreciate while individual stocks can fall; recent dispersion between index and stock performance unprecedented.
- Successful short selling requires expressing specific opinions on individual stocks rather than broad market bets, with careful position sizing and risk management.
Ferg’s Finds
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- JPMorgan analysis highlights China's imbalanced economy and persistent mercantilism as structural headwinds for Chinese tech holdings.
- Michael Howells framework on debt and liquidity cycles provides key lens for understanding macroeconomic drivers of market performance.
- Curated links to webinars and podcasts on cyclical investing and offshore rig markets relevant for tactical positioning.
Dollar trading in October
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- October historically brings volatility and bear market risks due to earnings disappointments, tax harvesting, and political uncertainty.
- Historical October crashes have never occurred during midterm election cycles, suggesting political calendar may dampen volatility.
- 2026's Q3 earnings outlook is strong and tax-loss harvesting opportunities limited, potentially reducing classical October crash catalysts.
who are the rich people, factorio in print, 9 scary words
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Study identifies ~3 million 'Main Street Millionaires' (private business owners) with average wealth of $25M, largely hidden through pass-through business structures since 1986 tax reforms.
- This wealthy class has substantial influence on US economy and politics but remains obscured from traditional wealth measurement methods.
- Income inequality rise correlates with the proliferation of pass-through businesses as wealthy individuals use accounting structures to minimize tax visibility.
Market Update & Signals 9/23/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- QQQ hits new all-time closing high while SPY trails, creating 5% divergence between tech/AI and broader market with S&P down 4% for month.
- Only 18% of S&P's 160+ industry groups are positive for September; weakness concentrated outside tech raises rotation or correction questions.
- 22 of 30 SOX semiconductor components constructively positioned with pullback buy opportunities identified if shakeout materializes.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Commentary on Trump's suggestion to rebrand AI as 'SI' (Super-Intelligence), with author humorously countering as 'Stupid Intelligence' given outsourcing risks to cognition.
- Notes ongoing Iranian delegation visit and Xi's arrival in Washington with geopolitical implications for US-China-Iran relations.
- Casual observations on current geopolitical tensions and cultural commentary mixed with personal anecdotes.
Pastor Ezra Jin: Free My Fellow Church Leaders in China. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Xi Jinping is meeting with Trump in Washington with AI, critical minerals, trade, and Taiwan on the agenda, with human rights concerns including detained pastor Ezra Jin.
- Trump previously raised Pastor Ezra Jin's detention case during a May meeting with Xi, signaling continued diplomatic focus on Chinese political prisoners.
- The Free Press has published investigative coverage of the CCP's long-running persecution of pastor Ezra Jin and his Zion Church.
Here's My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 23)
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Crude oil is in a pullback after a pattern of verbal Iran escalation followed by strike-driven price spikes and de-escalation headlines.
- Despite repeated cycles of the 'TACO' trade phenomenon, crude continues moving higher while global onshore inventories decline.
- The semi-closed Strait of Hormuz status continues impacting global oil balances, supporting higher prices even during pullbacks.
Chapter 9 - You Can Only Slay The Dragon Once
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- A 2002 meeting with Jiangxi Copper illustrates how early-stage China investments can be overlooked despite obvious secular tailwinds.
- The presentation quality and management communication were poor, yet the fundamental thesis of Chinese industrialization and mining demand was sound.
- The chapter explores how investors can miss obvious opportunities through overweighting presentation quality and near-term skepticism versus macro fundamentals.
(WOMM) What Energy’s Valuation Says About The Rest Of The Market
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Energy remains the cheapest major S&P 500 sector on expected earnings despite becoming less attractive at normalized $80/barrel WTI assumptions.
- High valuations across the broader market make it difficult to find energy companies offering sufficient margins of safety.
- Energy's relative cheapness compared to other sectors signals extremely elevated valuations elsewhere in the market.
They Were Lifelong Democrats. Then a Terrorist Attacked Their Synagogue.
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Lifelong Democratic Jewish voters from Michigan's Temple Israel are splitting from their party due to concerns about Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed's stance on Israel and Jewish safety.
- Approximately 70% of Temple Israel congregants are expected to vote for Republican opponent Mike Rogers despite decades of Democratic allegiance.
- Some Temple Israel members are choosing not to vote in the Senate race rather than support either candidate, illustrating a significant breach in traditional voting patterns among liberal Jewish constituencies.
The Monstering of Art
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Ayn Rand's biography reveals how her experience with Soviet collectivism shaped her fierce individualism and rejection of altruism.
- Rand's literary characters embody the struggle of independent minds against group conformity and social punishment for nonconformity.
- The author draws parallels between Rand's historical moment and contemporary cultural dynamics around individual rights and group demands.
HAVE CENTRAL BANKS ALREADY LOST CONTROL OF CREDIT MARKETS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Central banks have created asymmetrical policy-making, cutting aggressively during downturns but raising rates only gradually during expansions.
- Corporate credit spreads remain historically low as markets believe central banks will intervene if recession occurs, tying corporate to sovereign credit.
- Accelerating loan growth signals market confidence that central banks will prevent recession, potentially removing their ability to control credit cycles.
The Other Invisible Metal
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Indonesian supply controls announced in December sparked a 30% nickel rally after the author previously identified it as an undervalued opportunity despite consensus surplus forecasts.
- Risk to nickel supply concentration (70% from Indonesia) created a coiled spring for investors, with potential government rationalization or nationalization capable of shifting metal from deficit to balance.
- Junior producers and advanced explorers like Magna Mining and Talon provided limited listed alternatives for retail investors to gain nonfutures nickel exposure.
Politics · 14
United Nations: UNited In Hate 🪂 🤸♀️ Guterres Has No Guts
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- UN General Assembly 2026 features Antonio Guterres using final political capital to vilify Israel before assembly.
- Emmanuel Macron and Masoud Pazeshkian play prominent roles as torchbearers in annual Israel bashing tradition.
- Conversation features military expert Andrew Fox discussing opening days of UNGA and key speech highlights from geopolitical perspective.
TEXAS IS BORDERLINE
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is polling as a near 50/50 toss-up, an unusual competitive position for a traditionally Republican stronghold.
- Author dismisses the race as narratively boring despite its historical significance, noting prediction markets have already priced in the uncertainty.
- The fundamental tension centers on competing candidate caricatures: Talarico as an unconventional liberal versus Paxton as a scandal-plagued incumbent.
This Is How Women In Gaza Who Do Not Wear A Hijab Have Been Treated
John Aziz
- Palestinian social media influencer in Gaza was detained on October 7 by radicalized Palestinians who mistook her for an Israeli settler due to not wearing hijab.
- Incident reveals how dehumanization and hatred in conflict can turn violent internally against a society's own marginalized members, particularly women.
- Case illustrates the paradox that regimes promoting hatred toward external enemies often weaponize it against their own populations and minority viewpoints.
Iran’s Back Door Into America
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Iranian regime is systematically penetrating American institutions through financial injections, front companies, diaspora networks, and recruitment at universities.
- Post-9/11 focus on overseas terrorism allowed Iranian asymmetric warfare infrastructure to develop largely undetected within U.S. borders.
- Tehran employs strategy of identifying and exploiting existing societal fractures rather than requiring direct military dominance to inflict damage on open societies.
The Next Big Deadly Fire Nightmare is Being Incubated Right Now by the State of California
Michael Burry
- California's dangerous urban development practices are creating conditions for catastrophic wildfires similar to the 2018 Camp Fire that killed 85 people.
- Recent 2025 fires (Palisades and Eaton) killed 31 people and destroyed over 16,000 structures due to inadequate evacuation routes and poor urban planning.
- A city report showed potential for deadly outcomes, yet the city approved a problematic development project anyway, prompting litigation.
Why We Started The Long View
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- The Long View launched as successor to The Liberal Patriot, attracting 30,000+ readers in its first month with empirical, non-tribal political analysis.
- American politics shows unprecedented instability with 10 of the last 12 federal elections producing shifts in party control of House, Senate, or presidency.
- Both major parties prioritize coalition satisfaction over building durable majority coalitions, preventing either from establishing lasting political dominance.
Colorado Cannot Have It Both Ways
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- St. Mary Catholic Parish case at Supreme Court tests whether states can offer public benefits to religious institutions while prohibiting religious practices.
- Colorado's own exceptions to its preschool program rules undermine its claim of general applicability, strengthening the religious institution's case.
- The case revisits the tension between Employment Division v. Smith and First Amendment protections for religious exercise in modern policy.
CRUSADESMAXXING
PAIDWinston Marshall
- England experiencing cultural shift with Crusader symbolism gaining prominence at political rallies and through digital media algorithms.
- Historical Crusader heritage sites and symbolism are being revived as reference points in contemporary political discourse.
- Author traces physical locations of Templar and Hospitaller foundations in modern London and Europe, noting how medieval military-religious history informs current geopolitical messaging.
Palestine After the Two-State Solution
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- The two-state solution is dead as an immediate political project and repeating it offers no path forward for Israelis or Palestinians.
- Israel's 2005 Gaza withdrawal and subsequent Hamas takeover in 2007 demonstrates to Israelis the risks of similar West Bank withdrawal.
- Only 17% of Palestinians support the two-state solution according to Pew's September 2026 polling, reflecting widespread despair on both sides.
Nobody Knows, Donald
Hypernormal Times
- Trump made competing statements to the UN about Iran—threatening annihilation while envoy Witkoff conducted constructive diplomatic talks, creating market confusion.
- Markets priced the diplomacy angle with Brent crude falling for a sixth straight session toward $98 as investors bet on de-escalation.
- Iran rejected Trump's UN rhetoric as propaganda and promised severe retaliation, while officials suggested they could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade.
America Is Scared of AI. China Isn't.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Macron claimed Hamas has never been proactive in the West Bank, a demonstrably false statement requiring factual correction from a major world leader.
- Hamas has maintained political presence and activity in the West Bank at various points, despite not governing the territory.
- Distorting the distinction between Hamas governing and Hamas being active enables false narratives about Palestinian political dynamics.
King Abdullah Described Jordan at the UN and Called It Israel
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Jordan's 2016 census classified 634,182 Palestinians as stateless non-citizens without national ID numbers, contradicting King Abdullah's UN criticism of Israel's policies toward Palestinians.
- The author argues Jordan's own management of Palestinian populations mirrors the very policies Abdullah criticized Israel for at the UN General Assembly.
- Historical discrepancy between Jordan's stated position on Palestinian rights and its actual treatment of stateless Palestinian residents challenges the credibility of regional criticism.
On Dogmas, Heterodoxy, and Supermajorities
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democratic strategist Adam Jentleson argues the party must embrace 'heterodoxy' allowing candidates to deviate from party orthodoxy to win in their specific districts.
- Ruy Teixeira's Wall Street Journal review agrees with Jentleson's critique of purity tests but argues the book falls short in key analytical areas.
- The debate centers on whether Democrats can build a durable supermajority without imposing ideological conformity on candidates.
Americans don’t like extremists
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Both woke left and woke right movements share similar operating systems despite different messaging: obsession with identity, desire for government power, and authoritarian impulses.
- The woke right is spiritually leftist rather than genuinely conservative, using different rhetoric to advance the same collectivist goals as the far left.
- Americans reject extremism across the political spectrum, creating an opportunity for centrist positions to address voter discontent with both radical movements.
Macro · 13
TACO Time?
Andrew Sarna
- U.S. 5Y and 10Y yields reached uncharted territory not seen since July 2007, with PMI surging to five-year highs and employment reaching four-year peak.
- Nominal GDP growth at 6.6% (highest since 2005 ex-Covid) suggests yields are normalizing toward historical spread of ~70bps above nominal growth.
- Trump TACO/Pressure indexes at highest levels since March, raising risk of policy intervention as highly-leveraged financial system faces yield pressure.
The Waypoint & The Walk Back
Hypernormal Times
- U.S. 10-year Treasury breached 5% for first time since 2007 after weak bond auction and strong PMI data convinced markets Fed isn't finished hiking.
- Trump's casual comment on diesel export ban caused European diesel futures to spike 7% before Energy Secretary walked it back, highlighting market sensitivity to policy uncertainty.
- Bond selloff spread overnight to Japan, Australia, and New Zealand with suggestions that 6% 10-year yields may be the next target; Xi Jinping skipped UN Assembly for Washington Trump meeting.
Midweek Macro Note: A Little Bit of 87 Freestyle, Bond Market Bonanza, Flagship Macro Portfolio Strategy Update
MacroEdge Research
- US bond market showing stress with 10-year yields elevated and 5-year auction underperforming, reminiscent of 2007 crisis dynamics.
- Equity market breadth remains disproportionate with narrow leadership, raising concerns about market sustainability.
- High-yield credit market showing deteriorating conditions, signaling potential stress in leveraged segments.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Xi's arrival signals pivotal 24-hour window with binary outcome: either nothing-burger or massive sweeping agreement on commodities and trade.
- Potential China deal pricing includes diesel export bans and their commodity market implications, with significant upside for Nvidia if agreement reached.
- Setup positions for either rip higher across commodities or potential groundwork for cross-strait reunification path between China and Taiwan.
Twas the Night Before the Summit
Nico from AiQ
- China summit negotiations on agriculture and tariffs likely hinge on unresolved Taiwan security commitments from Beijing's perspective.
- Diesel export bans and agricultural pricing pressures (soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton) are creating commodity market uncertainty ahead of potential trade deals.
- Hard asset and inflation expectations are rising amid fiscal stimulus uncertainty, with yield curves breaching 5% and policy tensions between officials like Bessent and Warsh.
In 1989, five of the ten biggest companies on earth were banks
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- U.S. government debt now costs 4.67% for 10-year borrowing versus China's 1.68%, a historic gap suggesting fundamental economic instability.
- The AI boom is transitioning from a chip-focused narrative to a credit-driven crisis, mirroring the 1989 Japanese bubble where five of ten largest companies were banks.
- Rising bond yields and credit stress pose systemic risks to mortgages, pensions, and equity valuations despite limited media coverage.
Grains of Wrath - Anger Grows Where Grain Does Not
Santiago Capital Research
- Fertilizer shortages from geopolitical events create agricultural lag that appears months later in yield data, not immediately in futures prices.
- Wheat and corn were significantly underpriced in spring despite predictable supply shock because markets mispriced the timing of the shock.
- December grain contracts offered highest conviction opportunity as that month aligns with when fertilizer-related yield shortfalls manifest in supply data.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's pivot from pause to neutral to tightening have validated May thesis on rising 10-year yields driven by labor market acceleration and expanding earnings.
- Market successfully anticipated August volatility window and continued theme of elevated rates pressure on risk assets.
- Analysis separates signal from noise in recent Fed communication and market repricing following policy clarification.
Episode 023: Noise awaiting signal
Thematic Markets
- Markets are separating noise from signal ahead of US midterm elections, with earnings strong and Treasury markets stabilized despite initial fears.
- Inflation remains sticky despite some hopeful interpretations of recent CPI data; central banks still have tightening work ahead.
- AI-driven capital investment is broader than 'only-AI' narratives suggest, though regulatory and geopolitical risks around US-China competition persist.
Does The Investment Cycle Favor Stocks?
Prometheus Research
- Business fixed investment drives cyclical variation in US GDP and is crucial for sustaining corporate profits and predicting economic downturns.
- Residential investment remains weak due to monetary tightening and low housing demand, but not yet enough to trigger broader contraction.
- Tracking composition of investment growth across five major components—residential, industrial, transport, information equipment, and intellectual property—is essential for equity allocation decisions.
10 Charts to Watch in 2026 [update]
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Global growth has proven remarkably resilient in 2026 despite geopolitical events, with policy pivoting from tailwinds to rate hikes that will weigh on growth in 2027.
- Economic reacceleration is visible in both global PMI improvements and OECD leading indicators, reversing prior macro stagnation.
- Monetary policy trajectory—from 2020 tailwinds to 2023 tightening to current tailwinds—sets the framework for understanding the macroeconomic path ahead.
The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade
Capital Flows
- Global macro traders exploit policy-driven dislocations in rates and FX markets where extreme credit cycle events occur, offering better alpha potential than oversaturated equity/venture capital spaces.
- South Korea's KOSPI represents a convergence point where policy intervention meets the AI infrastructure trade, creating significant trading opportunities.
- An asset-agnostic and country-agnostic approach allows traders to pivot to volatility opportunities globally rather than concentrating in specialized sectors.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Universal $5,000 checks funded by over $1 trillion would exacerbate inflation, repeating COVID-era mistakes.
- Memory chip supply is actually overflowing with Chinese suppliers acting as price disruptors despite public predictions of continued increases.
- Oil market traders favoring diplomatic resolution (jaw-jaw) over military escalation (war-war) supporting modest market gains.
Markets · 11
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets down 63bp on lows with 10-year yield at 5.15% as global bond selloff widens; European and Asian markets mildly lower with tech and autos dragging.
- U.S. and China extend trade truce; Norway raises rates amid broader international monetary tightening pressure.
- Rate hike cycles eventually pressure equities; market monitoring weekly claims and new home sales data releases.
Can bonds ever rally again?
Macro Is Dead
- U.S. 10-year and Bunds sold off ~13-16bp on Sept 23 with little fundamental catalyst for the selloff to reverse without Fed/ECB guidance limiting future hikes.
- Strong PMI data and potential diesel export ban comments ignited bond selling; refineries reducing runs would raise gasoline and jet fuel prices alongside diesel constraints.
- Bull steepeners are the bullish bond play in this environment; out-of-consensus view is that rising yields may not matter to risk assets if growth story remains intact.
Topdown Approach to Generating Winning Investment Ideas [Seminar]
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Seminar covers top-down investment research framework using 5-factor approach with 70%+ historical hit rate over 10 years.
- Framework includes mental models, indicator building, and practical application particularly valuable late in market cycle.
- Approach designed to identify major trends across global multi-asset markets through systematic research methodology.
5% Treasury Tantrum
Eliant
- META's 'Muse' release reignited AI trade, driving tech outperformance with Nasdaq up 270bps while small caps lag by 70bps.
- Weak market breadth persists despite tech gains, driven by rising 10-year yields amid unresolved Middle East conflict and lingering inflation concerns.
- Strong economy continues to hold despite mixed signals, with divergence between large-cap tech and broad market participation creating tactical challenges.
How to Find Mispriced Bets on Prediction Markets
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- A French trader with $30M initial position on Trump election bet grew conviction to $80M after commissioning a study revealing shy voters in swing states.
- Prediction markets can be exploited by finding novel signals (like neighbor-perception questions) that traditional polls miss.
- The trader's $85M profit came from better signal extraction rather than betting against consensus; illustrates information asymmetry in prediction markets.
Secondary Pricing & AI’s Second Act
Andrew Sarna
- Secondary private markets pricing stable at 85-95% NAV range, with real estate, venture, and growth equity under pressure at ~25% discounts.
- Potential AI lab IPOs over next 12 months could collectively exceed value of all US tech IPOs from 1980-2025, signaling massive capital markets shift.
- Public markets rotating toward technology leadership with modest hiking cycle priced in; key risk is whether recent Fed hike signals one-off or broader tightening cycle.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets remain flat near record levels with the 10-year yield at 4.97% and modest gains in energy markets.
- European markets are off their highs with mixed Asian performance; Japan down 26bp, China down 40bp, Korea up 89bp.
- Key themes include AI FOMO returning, Iran-US diplomatic talks resuming, hawkish Fed commentary, and Meta's AI agent gaining traction.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Chinese RMB continues to strengthen quietly while US Treasury Secretary avoids formal currency manipulation labels despite Beijing's aggressive FX policies.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tolerates similar aggressive FX policies from South Korea and Taiwan because their trade surpluses are recycled into US Treasuries and equities.
- Key FX dynamics in CNH and BRL are positioned ahead of major policy meetings with commodity-driven implications.
What I’m Watching So You Don’t Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- US stock market has shown surprising resilience despite predicted corrections, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 setting records while energy prices and bond yields retreated.
- Year-to-date gains remain solid: Dow +8%, S&P 500 +13.5%, NASDAQ +17.2%, despite geopolitical tensions and AI volatility.
- Oil price decline of $10 and falling 10-year yields have been key tailwinds supporting continued equity market strength.
Stay.. . Rollover Market...
Garrett Baldwin
- Nasdaq 100 strength has dragged the broader market back up, with a 47+ point move since last Fed meeting bottom.
- Short covering triggered a pain trade toward the upside after the Fed meeting, as price action moved beyond three standard deviations.
- Personal reflection on market dynamics mixed with life priorities, emphasizing the importance of stepping away from trading to maintain perspective.
Trading Post September 22, 2026
Michael Burry
- NASDAQ 100 is historically overvalued and top-heavy but approaching new all-time highs despite sector headwinds.
- Acer CEO reports unprecedented price increases in key components with customers transitioning from complaining to scrambling to buy inventory.
- Chinese memory manufacturers' unlimited production capacity is disrupting prices globally, conflicting with the three major suppliers' strategy to maximize profits through price controls.
Culture · 8
Stop Asking Questions
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Mental health professionals often fail at listening despite training, defaulting to excessive open-ended questioning and talking too early in therapeutic relationships.
- Expert advice emphasizes complex reflections over open-ended questions; listening coaches improved clinician retention and productivity substantially.
- Effective communication requires speaking less and listening better, a foundational skill for mental health professionals that drives better outcomes.
CFDA Vice Chairwoman Aurora James is Being Sued for More Than $1 Million
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Aurora James, founder of Brother Vellies and the Fifteen Percent Pledge, is being sued for over $1 million alongside her organizations and fiscal sponsor.
- The lawsuit involves complex legal and organizational disputes related to her fashion and social justice initiatives.
- The story was held by the publication for over a month before detailed reporting.
FEMINIST ANTISEMITISM & The Betrayal of Jewish Women ✡️ KARA JESELLA
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Modern feminist theory has increasingly incorporated antisemitism and antizionism, diverging from original feminist principles of equality and sisterhood.
- Jewish women have been marginalized and portrayed negatively within contemporary feminist movements, contradicting core feminist commitments to women's solidarity.
- The conversation explores how antisemitism became embedded in academic feminist theory and intersectionality frameworks.
QAnon for Catholics
Chaotic Neutral
- Miracle apologists on Substack apply QAnon-like decoding methodologies to Catholic theology and miraculous claims, creating appearance of rigorous analysis.
- Both QAnon and miracle apologists use crowdsourced pattern-matching, cryptic interpretation, and timestamped evidence matching to validate unfalsifiable claims.
- The parallel reveals how conspiracy thinking and pseudoscientific analysis frameworks can migrate across ideological and religious boundaries.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Personal anecdotes on markets flatness, jury duty bias, and observations of Lehigh University engineering culture contrasted with broader societal trends.
- Commentary blends market analysis with cultural observations about work ethic and institutional shifts in higher education.
- Subjective personal narrative examining broader societal patterns rather than systematic market or economic analysis.
The 50 Essential Western Films
Ted Gioia
- The final installment of a 50-film Western survey covers 1969 to present, a period of paradoxical decline in mass audience appeal yet unprecedented creative reinvention.
- Bold filmmakers responded to genre decline by taking unprecedented chances and reinventing cowboy tropes for contemporary audiences.
- The era produced films with shock and provocation value that endure decades after release, contrasting with the genre's apparent commercial decline.
Teach Your Children How to Cook
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Learning to cook is a foundational life skill that prepares young people for adulthood and self-sufficiency in an era when most Americans lack proficiency.
- Family dinners centered around home-cooked meals provide essential bonding time and mental health benefits amid hectic modern schedules.
- School elimination of home economics courses has left generations without basic cooking instruction despite widespread desire to learn.
The real problem with interfaith initiatives
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Interfaith initiatives are performative attempts to demonstrate coexistence that often reveal underlying doubts about community relations.
- The Archbishop of Canterbury's contradictory actions—awarding then rescinding an interfaith cooperation award—exemplify how such staged events attract performers rather than foster genuine dialogue.
- Choreographed interfaith encounters tend to prove the opposite of their stated intent by highlighting rather than bridging community divisions.
AI · 8
Historic UN Security Council Briefing on AI
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Historic UN Security Council briefing featured consensus among leading AI scientists (Bengio) and major CEOs (Altman, Amodei, Delangue) on the need for immediate AI safety regulations.
- Key agreement areas include mandatory preflight safety testing, transparency auditing, liability frameworks, and global dialogue mechanisms.
- Bengio's remarks emphasized that humanity will face regret without immediate action on AI governance, signaling convergence among previously fragmented stakeholder groups.
AIpocalypse Now
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- When an issue reaches mass media saturation, rational decision-making probability drops to zero, as seen with recent AI apocalypse narratives.
- Anthropic and other frontier AI labs propose coordinated safety standards and pausing capability improvements, but these responses may be performative rather than substantive.
- Calls for international coordination on AI safety, including with authoritarian governments, raise practical and strategic questions about implementation.
Dear President Trump, here’s a deal you can actually make that will make you look great
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Instead of pursuing AI slowdowns, Trump could pursue US-China collaboration on beneficial AI applications like cancer research and cybersecurity defense.
- Cold War precedents like space race and smallpox eradication demonstrate that US-adversary collaboration on existential issues is historically feasible.
- International AI collaboration could paradoxically strengthen US technological leadership while addressing genuine dual-use AI risks.
The rest of my AI portfolio
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- The AI sector is rebounding with SMH breaking out of a cup-and-handle base, signaling the August-September deleveraging was a local top rather than the end of the AI super-cycle.
- Meta's Muse Spark agentic AI release is driving the latest rally with broader consumer appeal than enterprise tools, positioning Meta as a frontier player despite earlier perceptions of AI lag.
- The portfolio tracking AI positions is up 10.2% versus SMH's 7.5% gain, with additional long positions in Nasdaq added the prior week.
The secret behind Meta’s Muse
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Only 38% of Americans hold positive views on AI compared to 85% of Chinese, reflecting stark differences in cultural attitudes toward technology.
- America bans AI in classrooms while China integrates it into curricula; US fears existential AI risks while China hosts Robot Olympics.
- The divergence stems from whether societies view themselves as greater than their problems—a shift from American optimism to fear-driven policy.
Agentic Reality
Citrini
- The paper explores predictions from their 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis scenario and validates which AI disruption forecasts proved accurate and which were incorrect.
- Agentic AI removing friction from processes will create both winners (beneficiaries of AI adoption) and losers (displaced traditional intermediaries).
- Early evidence shows market participants are beginning to recognize the Citrini Trade thesis on AI-driven disruptions, though short-term traders were focused on 3-month price action rather than structural shifts.
BREAKING: Arsonist to write fire code at UN
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Gary Marcus criticizes Sam Altman briefing the UN Security Council on AI as inappropriate given OpenAI's track record and lack of technical credibility.
- The comparison suggests Altman leading AI policy discussions while his company creates security crises is analogous to a criminal advising law enforcement.
- Trump's rebranding of AI as 'Super Intelligence' at the UN is dismissed as another example of uninformed leadership on emerging technology.
Your agent is giving you reasonable answers from half your context. A conversation with OpenAI.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- OpenAI teams like software engineering, legal, and finance have integrated AI agents when access to relevant information improved and tools became effective at using it.
- Organizations are shifting from technical adoption barriers to deciding what work to automate, as AI makes task creation easier.
- Workplace adoption accelerates when an individual's use of AI improves other colleagues' productivity, depending on work environment and organizational authority.
Energy · 6
Oil!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Diesel prices hit $6.505/gallon on Sept 20, the highest AAA-recorded level, while gasoline remains below its June 2022 peak despite same crude supply.
- U.S. refinery bottleneck is the constraint: plants running at 96.8% capacity with distillate stocks 13% below five-year average despite adequate crude reserves.
- Emergency crude releases cannot solve the refining capacity problem; the U.S. is also exporting crude abroad, limiting domestic fuel availability.
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/16
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- MacroEdge expanding operational presence in West Texas with 4 new LP assets, marking first Texas additions despite political uncertainty.
- Operators showing liquidity preference during favorable pricing window to escape backend liabilities, creating acquisition opportunities.
- Multi-decade outlook supports current deal activity despite price discovery dynamics in WTI, with opportunity cost of waiting significant.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 9-18-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude inventory built 3.0 MMB while SPR released 0.4 MMB, with crude currently 2% above seasonal average despite SPR drawdowns preventing deeper declines.
- Spot WTI at $93 has retreated below estimated fair value based on inventory models, signaling potential price disconnection.
- Discrepancies between EIA reported imports and independent ship tracker data suggest missing barrels, creating audit concerns for inventory accuracy.
A most peculiar development
Irina Slav on energy
- Europe's largest CO2 capture facility launches in Netherlands (owned by Yara) to liquefy CO2 from ammonia production at 50 euros/tonne annual storage cost.
- American carbon capture firm diverts captured CO2 to oil producers for enhanced oil recovery rather than permanent sequestration, creating controversy among climate advocates.
- Tension between climate goals and economic incentives in carbon capture industry as private operators pursue profitable but environmentally contested use cases.
On the Ground Research Note - Part 1 of 3 - Welcome to West Texas and Permian ‘Stripper’ Economics
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- West Texas Permian region experiencing significant development between Midland and Odessa, resembling exurban growth patterns seen in the Texas Triangle.
- Stripper economics and regional affordability are creating investment opportunities in traditionally overlooked areas like Amarillo and Lubbock.
- On-the-ground research reveals evolving demographic and economic dynamics in West Texas oil and gas heartland.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian PLV coal eased 5¢/t to $277.70/t fob while tier-two hard coking coal held steady at $238.65/t fob.
- Physical seaborne market showed reluctance to trade with an $8/t gap between bids and offers, reflecting seller hesitation and buyer resistance.
- SGX futures showed strength in near-term contracts (September +$2/t, October +$2/t) while November-March contracts softened, with February down $2/t to $248.
Trading · 5
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/24
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- QQQ/NQ reached the top of a multi-month trading range while ES struggled with nominal all-time highs despite SPX not yet breaking new highs.
- ES formed a 2-day composite P-shaped profile suggesting a potential technical reversal or consolidation pattern.
- Technical analysis highlights the importance of understanding profile shapes and range breakouts for identifying market turning points.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Mid-cap technology hardware sector currently showing the highest concentration of stocks with new technical catalysts making all-time highs.
- This week's idea focuses on a specific mid-cap tech hardware company breaking above historical resistance levels.
- Post appears to be a teaser for premium research requiring trial subscription for full analysis details.
Great Opportunity or Pulp-Fiction: Mercer International Notes and How to Capture >20% IRR
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Mercer International (MERC) exhibits extreme distress metrics: 2,388% debt-to-equity ratio and senior unsecured bonds trading at ~30 cents on dollar.
- Pulp-and-timber sector remains a dead-money trade for equity investors but presents potential >20% IRR opportunity for distressed debt investors seeking high-yield fixed income.
- Legacy forest products companies (SUZ, IP, MERC) have systematically underperformed over 5 years but offer attractive risk-reward for specialized credit investors.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/23
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Equity indices ES and QQQ are approaching all-time highs, presenting critical decision points for traders.
- Gold day-trade setups are positioned with potential to evolve into swing trades based on technical levels.
- Market analysis integrates SPY, QQQ, and GLD with Discord coordination for real-time trade execution and planning.
How to Make Big Money in Public Markets
George Coyle
- Three primary strategies for making money in public markets: small moves with high leverage, big moves with little leverage, or moderate moves with moderate leverage.
- Leverage-based strategies (especially futures) offer fastest wealth creation but carry extreme tail risk, as evidenced by potential gap-down losses on tariff news.
- Warren Buffett's approach of making the most money without leverage demonstrates the superiority of sustainable, moderate-move strategies over boom-bust trading patterns.