★ Priority · 15
Market Update & Signals 11/5/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Markets showing broad-based rally across precious metals, homebuilders, airlines, solar, and Bitcoin following potential election inflection point.
- Nasdaq/S&P 500 ratio extremely oversold with 200-day moving average test in progress, setting up potential V-shaped recovery or base-building phase.
- Positioning and flows remain priority-1 with clean technical signals emerging for the first time in a while, especially for tech sector entries.
Newsflash: The Wave Is Not Blue
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Democratic sweep represents a loss for Republicans partly due to Trump's failure to finish the Iran operation, allowing gas prices to spike and hurt voters.
- Democratic strategy of courting anti-Israel sentiment to win elections conflicts with Jewish voter interests, while Republican JD Vance has already identified this winning strategy.
- Author expresses alarm at socialist election of LA mayor Nithya Raman and observes disconnects between American Jewish political behavior and historical antecedents.
How the New Right Failed
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- The new right's post-2016 movement initially succeeded by recognizing failures in prior conservative paradigms and addressing deindustrialization and immigration realities.
- Despite earlier clarity on foreign policy retrenchment and cultural anxieties, the new right proved ineffective once it gained executive power.
- The movement's earlier diagnoses of American problems—from bipartisan Middle East failures to young men's struggles—did not translate into workable governance solutions.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Sold half of WY Jan 2027 $20 calls at 2x profit, locking in gains while keeping remaining position.
- Follows disciplinary principle of selling half on double to reduce risk and maintain discipline.
- Treating WY as generational asset worth long-term holding despite taking profits on upside.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Sold all TSLA Nov 6th $380 puts at 2x profit, fully realizing gains on the position.
- Bought OXY Nov 20th $65 calls at $0.38 with OXY trading near its 200-day moving average.
- Planning general portfolio review and spring cleaning on current market strength.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Election result creating retail misconception that datacenter opposition is positive for Mag7 excluding NVDA and negative for infrastructure picks.
- Token price crashes reflect deeper market concerns being overlooked in initial election-driven reactions.
- Market likely to reassess hyperscaler cash burn dynamics and infrastructure investment implications post-election.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- New analysis piece published covering market implications and trading opportunities.
- Emphasis on risk management and strategic positioning in current market environment.
- Encouraging disciplined approach to trading decisions.
"Conversational AI custom media eats traditional media” thesis
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Conversational AI with voice and custom data integration (via MCP and internet access) directly competes with and outperforms traditional podcasts for information-hungry audiences.
- Custom, individualized conversational media runs on tokens and compute rather than traditional broadcast models, fundamentally shifting attention economics away from bulk page-view publishers.
- If personalized AI media captures disproportionate attention, traditional media businesses and individual content creators monetizing attention will face structural decline in revenue opportunities.
GLT/TLT AND THE MIDTERMS
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GLD/TLT weakness in 2026 challenges the pro-labor political thesis that should favor gold strength and bond weakness through inflation, not deflation/recession.
- Initial jobless claims near 36-year lows suggest the U.S. economy may be at a cyclical peak, with recession risks rising despite the absence of downturns for workers under age 36.
- Pro-labor politics will persist until wages and asset prices normalize through inflation; historically, this process eventually triggers a debt crisis that forces political regime change.
Midterms - The Aftermath
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- S&P 500 bounced +1% despite worst-case election outcome, suggesting market treating results as a 'clearing event' rather than fundamental negative.
- Democratic electoral sweep in Texas, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio creates headwinds for AI data center expansion as local governments gain scrutiny over projects still in early stages.
- Election marks transition from 'Golden Age of Grift' to 'Golden Age of Rift,' with major implications for various trade positioning and sector rotation.
Wipeout
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Democrats achieved historic 'blue tsunami' sweep winning House, Senate, and flipping traditionally red states (Texas, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina) in a 100-year political flood.
- Republican losses follow just two years after Trump's 2024 comeback victory and represent dramatic reversal despite unified government and Supreme Court majority.
- Election result contradicts expectations when Trump told voters to treat him as being on the ballot, suggesting his policy agenda faced voter rejection despite prior political strength.
Market Update & Signals 11/4/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Post-midterm markets are forming hammer patterns with S&P futures down 1.4% overnight and Nasdaq down 2.5%, suggesting potential capitulation and reversal.
- Positioning has been wiped out, as evidenced by traders buying on 'bad' news and inability of sellers to sustain downward pressure.
- Flows and technical signals are setting up critical trading opportunities with asymmetric risk-reward for disciplined investors following positioning roadmaps.
AI HAS MORPHED FROM A CAPITAL WAR TO A NARRATIVE WAR
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- AI sector competition has shifted from capital war to narrative war; SoftBank (biggest OpenAI investor) funding OpenAI, which funds Oracle's infrastructure growth.
- Oracle's share price down 60% from peak despite revenue growth resuming after decade of stagnation; CDS spreads at 2008 highs signal debt concerns.
- Key question: whether OpenAI can meet $70bn revenue commitments and sustain the capital cycle linking SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle.
ICE Is Set to Deport Dozens of Afghans. They Fear ‘Certain Death.’
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- ICE plans imminent deportation of ~80 Afghans, including those who assisted US military; deportees face Taliban persecution and documented torture.
- Afghan deportees like Ali fear certain death upon return; Taliban has systematic history of targeting those perceived to have aided the United States.
- 66 House and Senate Democrats signed letter urging Secretary of State Rubio to reconsider deportations of vulnerable Afghan allies.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Midterm elections may act as a clearing event creating a market bounce lasting a few days before hostilities related to an Iran War restart on Friday.
- Options imply a +/- 3% move in Nasdaq by Friday, with traders needing to be nimble as geopolitical risks re-emerge post-election.
- Market positioning should account for both near-term election relief rally and longer-term escalation risks in the Middle East.
Politics · 20
The Republican Reckoning
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Republicans suffered a major electoral defeat losing Senate seats across North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, plus 30+ House seats.
- Trump's MAGA faction has resisted internal criticism or accountability since 2017, forcing smart Republican strategists to weigh challenging Trump's party control against electoral losses.
- Republicans must either conduct an honest post-mortem of their midterm collapse or rely on deflection and blame-shifting, neither of which addresses structural party problems.
Strategy Note: The Electorate Caps the Capex Trade
MacroEdge Research
- Democratic victories across Texas and swing states signal GOP must shift leftward to compete, validating MacroEdge's 'Project South Africa' framework of long-term political realignment.
- Election results mark a transitional inflection point with broader implications for policy over decades, though immediate day-to-day market and economic impacts may be limited.
- Portfolio strategy opportunities and hidden risks are being reassessed in light of new political landscape and capex trade dynamics.
Observations: Post mortem on the US midterms
Thematic Markets
- Author's 2026 midterm call was wrong but framework correctly identified rising populism trend (validated in 2020), demonstrating value of robust decision-making frameworks over spot predictions.
- Proper post-mortem analysis requires itemized deconstruction of assumptions rather than wholesale framework rejection, as exemplified by learning from 2012 election misjudgment.
Palestinians Were Scheduled To Vote This Month, Too. Mahmoud Abbas Shut That Down
John Aziz
- Democrats achieved a decisive electoral victory across multiple states traditionally held by Republicans, including Senate and gubernatorial races.
- Trump's 2024 campaign promise to lower gas prices failed to materialize; energy prices worsened under his administration, damaging Republican approval.
- The Iran war escalation and spiking gas prices combined to create strong electoral headwinds for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
DO NOT READ STILL PRIVAT
Gold and geopolitics
- Satirical diary entries chronicle policy decisions around Iran military strikes and domestic campaign strategy in late October 2026.
- Depicts tension between administration officials over timing and scope of potential military action against Iranian targets.
- Uses irreverent tone to comment on political leadership style, campaign mechanics, and geopolitical decision-making during an election period.
taking our commodity markets back
Nico from AiQ
- The author frames the election results as a voter mandate against grift, corruption, inflation, and foreign influence, despite apparent political contradictions in the outcome.
- Agricultural policy changes and commodity market implications from the new Congressional composition will be detailed after election dust settles, with focus on how markets may respond.
- The post uses political commentary and satire to examine voter motivations, positioning the election as a rejection of the Trump administration's policies rather than a simple party-line vote.
Election Edition
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- The author, recently returned to town, provides lighter commentary on the recent election outcome, which he claims to have anticipated over a year ago.
- The post uses satirical humor and critical analysis to question the credibility and motivations of incoming Congressional leadership, skeptical of their ability to address middle-class decline.
- Mixed with music selections and social commentary, the article reflects frustration that market gains are concentrated among paper wealth holders while most people struggle financially.
Donald Tusk’s Globalist Government Has Politicized Polish Courts and the International Media Is Helping Him
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Donald Tusk's government has used international tribunals with globalist bias to undermine Polish Constitutional Tribunal legitimacy.
- Media coverage by Deutsche Welle inverts the actual dynamics by portraying political maneuvering as rule-of-law restoration.
- Irregular judicial appointment procedures violate Polish constitutional requirements despite international tribunal endorsements of Tusk's actions.
A Green Wave Just Hit!
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Democrats gained significant control in midterm elections, flipping seven Senate seats and dozens of House districts as Trump rejection.
- Republican losses reflect voter fatigue with Trump leadership and party direction over past two years.
- Author expresses concern about newly elected democratic socialist representatives and rising antisemitism within party ranks.
The End of the Arrangement
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Communities are voting against infrastructure projects designated as next-stage American growth, signaling public resistance to financed future.
- Distance between investor confidence in future and difficulty persuading public acceptance creates market vulnerability.
- Financial system reflexes may not adapt if underlying political framework shifts beyond historical patterns of recovery.
Tonight Live — Is the Danger Over?
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Trump's historic election loss and concession changed political risk calculus, but underlying fuel for violent populism remains.
- Critical 60-day window before hostile Congress takes power presents multiple potential flashpoints beyond election night.
- Survey data reveals surprising asymmetry in whether right or left is more primed for escalation; one key decision matters most.
The Most Dangerous Lame Duck — When Violent Populism Meets the Iran War
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Trump faces a double humiliation from both a historic home defeat and a losing foreign war, creating conditions for dangerous lame-duck actions over the next 60 days.
- Approximately 40 million Americans endorse using force to achieve political goals; recent electoral losses in Kansas and Texas fuel extremist narratives about Republican 'traitors'.
- Risk of convergence between domestic violent populism and foreign military humiliation could trigger destabilizing decisions before a hostile Congress takes power in January.
Trump and Iran after the Republican rout
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Iran's military strategy and economic disruption helped drive Republican electoral defeat by raising energy costs and exacerbating household inflation.
- Oil prices spiked 9.1% in September, accounting for over half the month's inflation increase and creating recurring economic pain for voters already fatigued with Trump.
- Iran's success in making American military action economically expensive at home signals its strategy for responding to future U.S. attacks and escalation.
ABC: Always Bet on Change
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- American voters repeatedly vote to 'throw the bums out' seeking change, with 12 of the last 14 elections classified as 'change elections' as neither party has solved core governance issues.
- Voters are frustrated and angry about the economy and country governance, driving cyclical political swings every 2-4 years.
- Election outcomes reflect dissatisfaction rather than clear policy mandates, as the electorate pursues a rotating door of new leaders.
The Way the Ball Bounces
Hypernormal Times
- Democrats won Senate and House majorities, gaining seats in traditionally Republican strongholds including Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas.
- Exit polls show 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on Trump, with 50% framing the election as a rebuke to the president.
- Bond markets reacted sharply with S&P 500 futures down 1.4% and Nasdaq futures down 2.5%, suggesting political outcomes are reshaping market positioning.
Trump Announces The End Of American Military Aid To Israel
John Aziz
- Trump announced ending US military aid to Israel by year-end following an alleged deal with Netanyahu to cease $4 billion annual funding.
- The move represents a significant shift in US-Israel relations and suggests Trump views American military support as a strategic liability rather than asset.
- The announcement came on election day, potentially signaling major foreign policy changes under new administration priorities.
The Nobel Peace Prize Has an Israel Problem
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Nobel Peace Prize recipient Navi Pillay called for Netanyahu prosecution for inciting genocide, continuing a pattern of anti-Israel activism from her UN role.
- The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Palestinian territories focuses exclusively on portraying Israel negatively with objectively false findings.
- Pillay is characterized as unapologetically anti-Israel, anti-America, and anti-Western, using her Nobel prestige to amplify controversial claims.
Will the Midterms Show Shifting Coalitions for Democrats and Republicans?
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Interview with Wall Street Journal editor Paul Gigot explores how 2026 midterm results will reveal shifts in Democratic and Republican electoral coalitions.
- Key questions include whether progressives' success threatens moderate Democratic voices and what results signal for Trump's 2028 coalition strategy.
- Discussion examines how working-class white voters, Hispanics, independents, and minorities have realigned since Trump's 2024 near-50% vote share.
The American Presidency: A 250 Year Perspective
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- Conversation with historian David Kennedy explores how current US challenges—presidential power, political division, economic nationalism, and global role—echo recurring tensions from American history.
- Historical parallels offer perspective on contemporary upheaval and transformation as America begins its next 250 years.
- Examines pivotal moments when earlier presidents and generations confronted similar turning points and tensions.
GAME TIME
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Prediction market trader assesses 2026 midterm Senate races; identifies Talarico as significantly mispriced at 74-75% when should trade in the 90s.
- Early voting data shows dominant performance for Talarico candidate across all serious polls for two months, unlike 2020 Biden polling mirage in Texas.
- Discusses how early vote patterns and polling trajectories inform prediction market valuations and trading strategy.
Markets · 15
Asset Gatherers, Not Outperformers
Andrew Sarna
- Major private equity firms like Blackstone deliver average net returns despite their marquee status, functioning as asset gatherers rather than outperformers.
- Since 2019, the median private equity fund has underperformed public markets, making capital lock-ups difficult to justify for most investors.
- As PE firms grow larger, incentives shift toward raising maximum capital over generating superior returns, eroding the performance advantage that justified the asset class.
How to Spot a Market Bubble
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- Market bubbles are identifiable through implied valuation assumptions (e.g., Sun Microsystems at $64/share required 100% of annual revenue for 10 years with zero costs to justify the price).
- Expensive valuations alone don't constitute a bubble; the real danger emerges from who is buying and how much leverage they are using.
- Investors often ignore obvious mathematical absurdities in valuations until markets crash, making mania psychology a key indicator alongside fundamentals.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets modestly higher on light news while European markets led by industrials; Asia showed mixed performance with Japan +1.6% and Korea -5.3%.
- Election results may fuel a K-shaped AI trade with big tech benefiting from data center backlash, and trading desks betting on continued rally momentum.
- Weekly jobless claims due at 8:30am; market positioning and flows remain priority-1 focus amid elevated noise around AI and political uncertainty.
Les Enfants Terribles
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- Tech giants' off-balance-sheet obligations surged 90% to $3.2 trillion in six months, widening credit spreads and signaling market stress in the sector.
- A significant rotation from large-cap growth to equal-weight and staples is underway, with negative-beta stocks at record 27.6% of S&P 500 weight, indicating risk-off positioning.
- Credit markets are flashing warnings: CCC high-yield spreads near 18% yield and correlating negatively with equities at -0.60, suggesting Fed tightening will persist despite market expectations.
Dems win. Data centers lose.
Campbell
- Democratic electoral sweep triggered initial stock selloff but recovery buying, with bonds rallying on expectations of divided government and lower deficits.
- Oil fell 8% on peace signals from Democrats regarding Iran, but prediction market pricing on ceasefire remains disconnected from derivatives positioning, creating potential basis trade.
- Cushing inventories remain structurally low despite China demand weakness, suggesting restocking demand could support oil prices even with near-term geopolitical relief.
Datacentres & Pound Shops
Hypernormal Times
- Post-election market rotation: Brent crude crashed 9% to below $95 on Democratic pledges to end Iran conflict, marking potential for biggest weekly drop since April 2020.
- Treasuries rallied sharply to 4.84% yield (lowest since September) while dollar weakened on expectations of deficit reduction and less aggressive Fed policy.
- AI and data-center stocks became the biggest losers as election results shifted market focus away from capex spending themes toward value and macro stabilization.
State of the Themes
Citrini
- Citrini Research's thematic investing approach has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.5x since inception in May 2023, but market conditions are shifting as valuations rise and sentiment improves.
- The investment landscape is transitioning from identifying cheap, proven winners with obvious tailwinds to speculative, unprofitable companies dependent on distant 2030 TAM projections.
- Recent market discrimination is making traditional thematic narratives feel forced and stretched, though selective inflection points like life sciences continue to offer undervalued opportunities.
The Rise and Fall of Companies Hitching Themselves at the Hip to Data Centers
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Modine Manufacturing exemplifies a cautionary tale of companies pivoting to data center plays at the worst possible time, losing approximately 50% of value since Herb Greenberg's original May report and another 25% recently.
- Red flags should be monitored consistently regardless of market conditions, as investors tend to ignore warning signs during bull markets and panic during downturns—the opposite of rational decision-making.
- The article highlights timing risk and the importance of recognizing when companies make strategic shifts into crowded, late-cycle narratives rather than emerging structural tailwinds.
Haymaker Daily
The Haymaker Team
- Warren Buffett's quote about historical knowledge being insufficient for investing profitability contains kernels of truth but oversimplifies market dynamics.
- Understanding past market behavior remains essential foundation despite its limitations in predicting future outcomes.
- Balancing historical awareness with forward-looking analysis creates more robust investment decision-making framework.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets surged on Democratic sweep of Congress with strong economic indicators (3.7% GDPNow vs 2.8% consensus).
- Author advocates for staying long equities in a secular improvement environment rather than attempting market timing, emphasizing decades of compound gains over tactical allocations.
- Diversification extends beyond finances to mechanical life practices like jiu-jitsu, which creates self-reinforcing positive feedback loops across multiple life domains.
The Buildout and the Backlash
Andrew Sarna
- Hedge fund performance diverged sharply with Citadel outperforming while high-conviction tech and retail-favorite thematic baskets lagged in difficult October market.
- Labor market shows low-hire, low-fire dynamics with job openings rising to 7.52m but hiring rates remaining below pre-pandemic averages, suggesting labor market cooling.
- Democratic sweep in midterms changes policy calculus, with fund manager boom expectations at highest since February 2022 despite recent earnings disappointments.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P 500 rallied +1.0% on Democratic Congressional sweep with 10-year yields falling to 4.94% and USD weakening 45bp as markets repriced policy expectations.
- European markets surged with banking sector leading on Blue Tsunami results, while Asia showed mixed performance with Japan -86bp but China +2.2%.
- AI data center opponents gain political tailwinds as Democratic Congress victory raises regulatory scrutiny risk for projects, while Musk-related holdings face election headwinds.
Haymaker Daily
The Haymaker Team
- Bull market from March 2020 has persisted despite dramatic spike in 10-year Treasury yields from 0.53% to ~5% since summer 2020.
- Examines the remarkable resilience of stock performance amid rising interest rates during post-Covid recovery.
- Daily market analysis and perspective on equity valuations in context of changing rate environment.
Blacklion Daily Den Election Day 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- JOLTS data release this morning takes priority over Factory Orders; a reading below 7M openings would pressure Fed hike expectations.
- Treasury's $618B Q4 borrowing forecast follows $150B TGA drawdown, with Q1 2027 projected at $800B to rebuild TGA to $1T amid heavy bill financing.
- Election-driven volatility and rumor-filled trading expected until polls close, with curve offered and December rate hike odds around 78% subject to JOLTS and political results.
PALLADIUM: BACK ON THE CHRISTMAS SHOPPING LIST!
Fred's Corner
- Palladium has fallen back into its 2023-2025 consolidation range after a 2025 rally exit, presenting a second medium-term entry opportunity.
- EV transition has not destroyed automotive PGM demand as expected; hybrid sales surge while recycling disappoints and mine supply remains pressured in Russia and North America.
- Speculative positioning has reached historically bearish levels, but supply-demand balances do not show massive surplus, suggesting attractive medium-term risk/reward.
Macro · 14
The Unconstitutional De-industrialisation of America by a Foreign Committee
Craig Tindale
- The Basel Committee's 1988 banking regulations prioritized bank capital over manufacturing investment, requiring 8x capital for factory loans but nothing for government loans.
- US manufacturing jobs fell 4.9 million and manufacturing's share of GDP dropped from 17.5% to 9.8% between 1990-2024 due to these regulatory frameworks.
- Hamilton and Coxe's 1790s principle that political freedom requires economic independence has been undermined by foreign regulatory committees favoring financial system protection over industrial capacity.
Paris Is Burning
Peruvian Bull
- France's 10-year government bond yield has surpassed 5% for the first time since 2002 and now exceeds U.S. Treasury yields, signaling a significant shift in eurozone risk perception.
- The ECB's "whatever it takes" promise from 2012 has historically supported bond markets during crisis, but the recent French bond rout suggests the market is testing whether that support still holds.
- France is experiencing severe civil unrest, with a student-led revolt over deteriorating schools escalating into the worst rioting in years, adding political uncertainty to fiscal concerns.
Insider Newsletter: Issue #338
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- AI market fears and overvaluation concerns are creating trading opportunities for contrarian investors.
- Britain's economic trajectory resembles a controlled demolition with currency devaluation risks outpacing asset depreciation.
- Oil markets face structural shifts following Iran tensions and broader geopolitical realignment affecting energy systems.
The Layoffs Are Real. The "Strong" Jobs Number Isn't.
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Major tech and media companies (Disney, Microsoft, Netflix) are executing significant workforce reductions despite strong headline job openings data.
- Disconnect between massive corporate layoffs and reported 7.5 million job openings reveals fragmentation in labor market dynamics.
- Headline employment statistics mask underlying corporate cost-cutting and structural workforce adjustments across major industries.
The impact of a Dem sweep, and things that keep me up at night
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Democrat electoral sweep causing initial equity futures selloff that reversed on priced-in expectations; Texas and Virginia datacenter opposition adds unpriced political risk.
- Anti-datacenter sentiment from newly elected governors threatens neoclouds capital availability and business model viability.
- Lame-duck Trump presidency poses geopolitical and trade chaos risks while Democrats pursue legal and impeachment attacks; expect rocky market conditions ahead.
Daily Den In Our New World November 4, 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Trump's political character as a big-spending, strong-borders Democrat will likely facilitate deals with the new Democratic Congress rather than gridlock.
- Busy economic data week with NFP ahead, and potential Treasury Quantitative Reserve Adjustment (QRA) decisions could reshape Fed reaction functions.
- Trade balance releases underscore that tariffs alone cannot fix trade deficits, and Treasury issuance will likely expand unless aggressively countered.
Election, Funding Stress, and QRA (Live in 15)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Democrats now control both chambers of Congress, shifting political dynamics away from Trump's election concerns and toward structural economic issues.
- Markets initially sold off on election news but recovered; mainstream media coverage ignores root causes of inflation (Federal Reserve, debt, Cantillon Effect, regulation).
- Treasury Quantitative Reserve Adjustment (QRA) at 8:30 AM may be more impactful than election outcomes; failure of the Clarity Act will create additional bond market headaches.
Blue Tsunami
AP Research
- Democratic sweep triggered 'Blue Tsunami' with equities and crypto initially lower, yields falling, and dollar under pressure as markets repriced policy expectations.
- US maintains strongest investment story among developed peers despite Democratic Congressional control potentially challenging AI investment growth over time.
- Cross-asset market moves show initial knee-jerk reactions reversing, with notable shifts across FX, equities, yields, oil and Bitcoin warranting rebalancing.
Quick thoughts on US midterms and bonds
Rishi Mishra from On Another Note
- Historic blue sweep creates political gridlock that should be bond-friendly, as large deficit-expanding packages become harder to pass while automatic stabilizers continue.
- Bond rally already priced in ~50bps ahead of elections, raising question whether further rate declines reflect election impact or primarily earnings and financing concerns in equities.
- Three key questions determine stock/bond response: whether AI sell-off incorporated election risk, if gridlock materializes as growth headwind, and whether regulatory environment shifts support equities.
Episode 026: Post-election focus on central bank errors
Thematic Markets
- Central banks (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan) paused rate hikes despite persistent inflation and strong economic growth, repeating historical policy mistakes.
- Consumer inflation expectations are more economically relevant than financial market forecasts, yet central banks are not responding appropriately to real inflationary pressures.
- Delaying interest rate increases will ultimately require more aggressive tightening and risks triggering sovereign debt crises in Europe, with currency and equity volatility expected post-election.
Washington Needs $1.4 Trillion. Everybody Calm Down Right Now...
Garrett Baldwin
- The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement will detail borrowing strategy for $1.42 trillion over six months ($618B Q4, $800B Q1), affecting mortgage and corporate rates.
- Treasury's debt mix decision—between short-term bills, 2-10 year notes, and 20-30 year bonds—will directly move Treasury yields and equity markets.
- Current deficit-fueled borrowing scale is unsustainable and politicians discussing affordability lack understanding of inflation origins and how deficits perpetuate economic problems.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity weakened despite Shadow Monetary Base gains, as PBoC injections were offset by stronger USD, weaker Fed liquidity, and continued ECB/BoJ quantitative tightening.
- Investor risk appetite is softening with notable pullback in emerging market exposure, particularly Latin America.
- Collateral multiplier remains elevated but insufficient to counteract headwinds from currency and central bank policy shifts.
Financial Conditions: The Barometer
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Financial Conditions Index models separate impacts on growth and inflation to capture regimes where these move in opposite directions (stagflation vs. productivity miracle).
- Traditional FCI models incorrectly assume stronger growth always means stronger inflation, an outdated assumption the author's models address.
- The author hosts a live session to walk through multiple FCI approaches including the Fed's FCI-G model as a comparative sanity check.
My Post-Election Forecast (Live in 10)
Garrett Baldwin
- Central bank and Treasury policy impacts financial outcomes more directly than election results, yet politicians and media focus on partisan blame rather than systemic monetary/fiscal policy.
- Post-midterm outlook requires examining Federal Reserve and Treasury decisions on capital allocation rather than Congressional composition.
- Live session scheduled to discuss macro dynamics driving financial health amid political noise and market positioning.
Energy · 12
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research Strategy Note for 11/4: Flat Tire
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Oil sector suffered another rejection at key technical levels following Trump's reported hesitation on Iran military action, compounding months of political disappointment for the trade.
- Republican Party fragmentation and conflicting war/inflation signals have created repeated false-breakout scenarios, wiping out patient positioning within days.
- Broader 'Project South Africa' trend of U.S. political polarization and volatility continues to underpin structural headwinds for energy policy consistency.
Diesel Crisis Deepens While SPR Releases Stay Minimal
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Distillate inventories fell 3.6 million barrels (above expectations) while SPR releases remain minimal at 0.4 mb, creating a heating fuel supply squeeze.
- Rising heating demand combined with low strategic stock releases threatens to intensify diesel crisis, particularly in blue states.
- Post-election policy responses from the new Democratic administration could shift SPR release strategy and supply dynamics.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 10-30-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude inventories drew by 0.9 MMB and remain 4% below seasonal average; SPR releases continue with 40 MMB recently awarded to companies.
- Spot WTI at $88 shows significant disconnect from estimated fair value based on EIA inventory data.
- Distillate saw the largest draw at 3.6 MMB, and Cushing volumes remain above average at +0.3 MMB week-on-week.
CNR Q3 Earnings Preview
The Coal Trader
- Core Natural Resources reports Q3 earnings Thursday with consensus revenue of $1,130.3M and adjusted EPS of $0.78, though the company's actual performance is volume and cost-driven rather than price-dependent.
- CNR's profitability inflection point is around $180M adjusted EBITDA after accounting for D&A, interest, and pension costs, with consensus expecting $25M above that threshold.
- Pennsylvania Mining Complex production declined by roughly 1M tons versus Q2, while PRB recovered from weak spring performance and the Leer complex maintains met costs in the mid-$80s range.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- BTU report showed poor coal productivity metrics resulting in 30% position loss for trader on Centurion mine operations.
- METC company highlighted positive strategic shifts including increased low-volatility coal focus and improved domestic cost positioning.
- Potential REE spinout and Chubb insurance settlement exceeding rare-earth-element plant capital expenditure creates optionality for investors.
Recycle Bin
PAIDDoomberg
- US natural gas production is forecast to grow more than the entire EU's combined output in 2026-2027, demonstrating the industry's relentless expansion.
- Appalachian natural gas spot prices are running at $1-2 per million BTUs ($6-12 per barrel equivalent), driving industry consolidation as companies compete on efficiency.
- Low energy prices are compelling advances in drilling technology and triggering major M&A activity, with EQT acquiring a pure-play competitor.
BTU Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
The Coal Trader
- Peabody Energy reports Q3 earnings November 4 with consensus estimates of $1,025M revenue and -$0.11 EPS, but the analyst model projects better results.
- The critical threshold is $130M adjusted EBITDA, which separates profitability from losses after accounting for depreciation and interest.
- Street analysts are skeptical after two consecutive quarterly misses, requiring management to hit its Q3 guidance to prove credibility.
Grizzle Critical Minerals Roundtable - Fall 2026
Grizzle Research and Quant
- Vehicle electrification, AI data center growth, and supply chain localization are creating strong structural demand for critical minerals.
- Meaningful disconnect exists between high realized commodity prices and the equity valuations of underlying companies, presenting a compelling investment opportunity.
- Roundtable features cash-flowing royalties, near-term developers within 24 months of production, and tier-1 strategic assets across copper, lithium, and other critical minerals.
Expecting NRP Q3 free cash flow print >$41M
The Coal Trader
- Natural Resource Partners reports Q3 results November 4 with expected free cash flow printing above $41M.
- Coal segment expected to show slightly higher royalty volumes with broadly flat pricing.
- Stock has performed well in recent weeks heading into earnings announcement.
HCC Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
The Coal Trader
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) reports Q3 2026 earnings; Bloomberg consensus targets $508.2M revenue and $1.39 EPS, with analyst model slightly light on revenue but ahead on EBITDA.
- PLV metallurgical coal rallied $29/t in Q3 but timing means impact hits Q4 results more significantly than Q3 averages.
- Key call question focuses on whether Blue Creek can convert stronger HVA market conditions into realized pricing improvements.
North American Oil Data Deck (November 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- North American liquids supply contracted 127 kbpd month-over-month to 31,791 kbpd in August, driven primarily by Canadian output pullbacks and Mexico returning to contraction.
- Western Canadian Select crude hit its widest discount since 2018, reflecting record discounts on Canadian barrels at both coasts despite adequate pipeline capacity.
- US crude production gains remain the primary constraint on broader supply growth, showing structural slowdown rather than cyclical weakness.
Private Poles and Wires ft. Anton Troynikov (American Terawatt)
Emmet Penney from Nuclear Barbarians
- Anton Troynikov of American Terawatt is building off-grid, undergrounded HVDC power lines for industrial loads to address regulated electricity constraints.
- The company tackles the politics, economics, and physics of private power infrastructure as an alternative to traditional ratepayer-funded utility poles and wires.
- This represents practical implementation of consumer-regulated electricity concepts previously discussed with Travis Fisher on policy innovations.
Culture · 11
The Origin of White Guilt
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- The author's father, Shelby Steele, grappled with the concept of 'white guilt' in the 1970s before publicly popularizing it as a cultural phenomenon.
- Martin Luther King Jr. invoked the idea of white guilt as early as 1966 in his Soldier Field speech, establishing an intellectual foundation predating modern usage.
- The term gained broader cultural currency through 1970s figures like Tom Wolfe, indicating it emerged from multiple intellectual streams rather than a single source.
Harm Reduction is a Good and Bad Idea
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Harm reduction in addiction therapy meets clients where they are, accepting incremental progress like clean needle use or safer alternatives to heroin as partial wins toward eventual sobriety.
- Therapists play the long game, betting that keeping clients alive through reduced-harm strategies creates opportunities for better decision-making and recovery over time.
- The approach balances pragmatism with hope: while abstinence remains the ultimate goal, practitioners respect clients' autonomy and motivations without cynicism.
don’t cure the brilliant child.
Hugh Hendry
- Intelligence is often misunderstood as quick recognition, but true insight comes from changing perspective to make the familiar strange again.
- Bright people frequently fail in markets because they lack the ability to see themselves from new angles, relying on familiar patterns.
- Artistic perception—like Linda King's sculpture of Bukowski—reveals what intelligence alone cannot: the humbling value of being remade by another's vision.
America’s Universities Are Teaching Students to Hate Their Country
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- University curricula increasingly cultivate contempt for America and its foundational principles of individual liberty and institutional accountability.
- Contempt is identified as the most corrosive emotion in relationships, and when extended to an entire nation, it breeds hatred and can enable destructive actions.
- A Buckley Institute report presents evidence that academic environments are teaching students to view their own country and fellow citizens with moral superiority and disdain.
The Music Innovator Who Lived in a Friend's Basement
Ted Gioia
- Ted Gioia's Sound Wizards essay series highlights overlooked music innovators and avant-garde figures who transcended mainstream conventions and remain largely unknown to the general public.
- Featured innovators include Charles Kellogg (a transformative sound master), Hermeto Pascoal (called the 'most musical man in the world'), and Raymond Scott (inventor of the Electronium).
- The series celebrates musicians who journeyed so far beyond conventions that even the avant-garde and fringe culture failed to recognize their contributions to music and sound.
Thanksgiving Menu pt 4: French Onion Dauphinoise
Notorious Foodie
- French onion dauphinoise combines caramelized onions, beef jus, and Gruyère cheese in layered potato gratin for complex flavor.
- Recipe requires patience with onion caramelization and proper potato selection (Maris Piper, King Edward, or Yukon Gold recommended).
- Finishing under the grill creates golden, bubbling cheese crust that elevates the dish beyond standard potato gratins.
High Protein Fall Harvest Chicken Salad
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- High-protein fall harvest chicken salad delivers 22g protein in under 260 calories using Greek yogurt and reduced mayo.
- Recipe combines seasonal flavors with candied jalapeños, walnuts, dried cranberries, and roasted sweet potatoes for texture variety.
- Using canned chicken simplifies preparation while maintaining nutritional balance and creamy dressing consistency.
An Exclusive Look Inside JPMorgan Chase’s New Members’ Club, Project Ruby
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- JPMorgan Chase investing $8.23M+ to convert former Bank of Manhattan building into ultra-luxury private members club at 726 Madison Avenue.
- Project Ruby features multiple dining rooms, two bars, fireplace lounge, and entire floor dedicated to private dining with custom architectural details.
- Development proceeded under strict NDAs with limited public disclosure, but architectural filings and construction permits reveal extensive renovation scope.
HOMEMADE CHICKEN STOCK
Ana Sofia Fehn
- Homemade chicken stock recipe requires ~6.75 hours cooking (1.25 hours active) using wings, necks, and feet to extract collagen-rich gelatin.
- Key ingredients include aromatics, tomato paste, herbs, and peppercorns; stock freezes well for future use.
- Detailed step-by-step instructions for roasting bones and simmering to create versatile base for soups, gravies, and sauces.
Six Children’s Retellings of Western Classics
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Curated list of six children's retellings of Western classics introduces young readers to foundational stories essential for cultural literacy.
- E.D. Hirsch framework: these stories permeate language and shape understanding of the world, preparing children for citizenship and lifelong appreciation of literature.
- Includes *Black Ships Before Troy* and *The Wanderings of Odysseus* by Rosemary Sutcliff, exploring themes of honor, duty, loyalty, courage, and prudence.
You've never lost $19 billion, and you're still playing it safer than Zuckerberg. Pick the project you shelved and…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Zuckerberg's boldness in pursuing new ventures (Muse) demonstrates that willingness to take risks drives greater impact than incremental optimization of current life.
- Technological advances have fundamentally lowered barriers to entry—the costs and constraints that shaped previous decisions about what's achievable are now outdated.
- Most people are anchoring to outdated self-imposed limits about what they can learn, build, or accomplish; re-examining these assumptions is critical in an era of expanded capabilities.
AI · 7
The AI Industry Thinks It Has a PR Problem. The Actual Problem Is Much Worse
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Americans show growing antagonism toward AI and datacenters despite embracing AI in daily life, with considerable overlap between users and critics.
- The AI industry attributes hostility to messaging problems, but voters are actually signaling clear trade-offs they're willing to accept—not rejecting AI outright.
- AI is emerging as a defining issue for the 2028 presidential election alongside corruption and geopolitical concerns, making public sentiment dismissal counterproductive.
Anthropic can sell more AI than it can supply, & that’s now the biggest risk to its $1.5T IPO 🤖📉; Shopify’s Q3 2…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic can sell more AI than it can supply, with a $5B short-term compute bill causing Q3 losses that challenge its $1.5T IPO valuation.
- A SpaceX contract with a 90-day exit clause and compute supply constraints represent early warning signs for Anthropic's IPO sustainability.
- Shopify's 66% profit jump is actually 40% adjusted, with the stock falling 9% on a rounding-error earnings miss; Shop Pay now integrates into other companies' AI agents.
Anthropic’s Amended Prospectus Form S-1/A: 3rd Quarter Results & More Questions
Michael Burry
- Anthropic's amended S-1 filing reveals $895.4 billion in total compute commitments, representing a significant capital requirement for the AI company's infrastructure buildout.
- The S-1/A includes Q3 financial details but notably omits Anthropic's updated October revenue run-rate, leaving key growth metrics undisclosed before the roadshow.
- Filing shows adjusted financial metrics on third-quarter results, though interpretation suggests the market may not fully appreciate critical details without broader attention to the prospectus amendments.
Elon Musk just said his AI agent costs too much to serve for what it earns. If your AI bill goes up next, here's h…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Elon Musk acknowledged Grok Bot costs unsustainably exceed revenue, despite agent delivering measurable value to users.
- Cost of serving, price charged, and value created are three distinct metrics; sustainability requires alignment between them.
- AI agents enable individuals to direct work previously requiring teams, shifting funding and prioritization decisions to end users.
Intelligence per watt: why the AI build earns its cost
Craig Tindale
- AI data-center buildout will justify its costs through productivity gains in software development, as AI agents remove the decades-long bottleneck of programmer scarcity.
- Revenue feasibility depends on output per watt (tokens per MW × token capability × task value), not raw gigawatts consumed; newer chips like GB200 achieve 18.8× throughput per watt versus H100.
- When code production costs fall dramatically, software demand rises disproportionately, driving the actual revenue realization that justifies the infrastructure investment.
The Anthropic Feedback Loop: Cost of Capital Diversions and Delusions...
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Damodaran responds to pushback on his Anthropic valuation by playing devil's advocate and stress-testing his own value estimate.
- Much critical feedback reflects emotional reactions from Anthropic believers or skeptics rather than engagement with corporate finance principles.
- The analysis will examine fragility in story inputs and cost of capital assumptions against market history and current pricing to reinforce valuation first principles.
The Dawn of a New AI Paradigm: Weight-Space Programming
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- The Bitter Lesson principle suggests handmade AI methods eventually lose to scalable approaches, extending now to weight-space programming where machines optimize neural network weights directly.
- AI systems could use neuralese (their native unintelligible language) to manipulate network weights rather than relying on human-style code and hyperparameter tuning.
- This represents a new AI paradigm shift where machines leverage their numerical nature to solve problems humans approach through traditional programming methods.