★ Priority · 16
The Founder Building an Actual Unicorn. Plus . . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Josie Zayner's bioengineering company is developing fluorescent hypoallergenic cats, hardier cattle breeds, and faster racehorses through genetic modification.
- The company previously distributed public frog genetic engineering kits, raising safety and ethical concerns about accessibility to powerful biotechnology.
- Reporter investigates whether Zayner's whimsical projects like creating dragons are scientifically sound and ethically justified.
(Idea) Tamarack Buys Headwater At An Attractive Price
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Tamarack Valley Energy acquires Headwater Exploration at one-for-one stock exchange, reversing analyst expectations that Headwater deserved a premium.
- Headwater management team moves to new exploration company rather than leading the combined entity, suggesting confidence in alternative opportunity.
- Combined company shares appear overvalued despite Tamarack's solid Clearwater assets, with deal structure favoring Tamarack over shareholders.
9/11 and the Work to Be Done
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- 25 years after 9/11, American unity has fractured into deep divisions over national identity and the attacks' meaning.
- Public figures have distorted 9/11 history, complicating efforts to collectively honor victims and first responders.
- The nation remains polarized even on fundamental questions about responsibility and the lessons of the tragedy.
OBSERVATIONS ON CURRENCIES
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Strong-performing economies like Korea and Taiwan have weak currencies that don't reflect fundamentals, likely suppressed by external policy factors.
- Weak currencies that should be strong (like the Mexican Peso) remain overvalued, creating asymmetric opportunities in currency markets.
- Currency markets have broken down as a reliable investing tool due to structural policy interventions distorting natural pricing mechanisms.
Ferg’s Finds
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Pessimistic narratives are intellectually seductive and command attention more effectively than optimistic ones, shaping market psychology.
- Fed policy is a tail wagging the dog—inflation drives real interest rates, and the Fed has limited control over inflation dynamics.
- Tracking Fed moves without understanding inflation trends provides little insight into actual market direction.
The Day the World Changed
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- September 11 marked an epochal break between eras, fundamentally changing the world and launching the War on Terror.
- Dr. Kristina Jones, a psychiatrist at St. Vincent's Hospital closest to the WTC, worked 13 hours on 9/11 and documented her firsthand account of the tragedy.
- The Free Press publishes essays from columnists and military leaders examining 9/11's legacy 25 years later and its contested meaning today.
TGIF: I Am Not Satisfied That the Appellant Is Bisexual
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Multiple young professionals are resigning from AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic after short tenures.
- The Free Press is hosting supper club events and author events including historian Simon Sebag Montefiore on October 1.
- September 11 anniversary coincides with other significant historical dates, highlighting how major events shape cultural memory.
(Idea) GeoPark’s Venezuela Deal Creates More Upside—And A More Difficult Valuation
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- GeoPark's acquisition of Venezuela's Bare Block dramatically expands company upside, with potential to grow EBITDA from ~$280M in 2025 to ~$1.2B by 2030 at $75 Brent.
- Bare Block represents massive, already-producing resource with straightforward path to materially higher production over several years, adding new dimension to company's value creation.
- Previous $21 valuation estimate using 3x EV/EBITDA multiple no longer applies as company composition shifts from Vaca Muerta-focused growth to broader international portfolio, requiring new valuation framework.
Return
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Teshuva means both repentance and return—returning to one's truest self rather than becoming someone entirely new.
- Author describes a year of difficult silence and learning to carry an absence while performing a facade of 'moving on.'
- Moving forward differs from moving on; one can progress while still carrying pain and grief without abandoning it.
- True return involves strapping oneself to pain and vulnerability rather than performing external progress and change.
Douglas Murray: Who’s Afraid of the ‘Far Right’?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- AfD's first-place finish in Saxony-Anhalt with 44% vote share is framed as 'far-right' by English media despite nuanced political reality.
- Douglas Murray argues AfD is not actually a far-right party but rather represents mainstream opposition driven by mass immigration concerns.
- English-language media coverage of AfD lacks analytical care and precision, using sensationalist framing rather than substantive analysis.
- Mass immigration, both legal and illegal, is the core driver of AfD's rise as opposition party, not extremist ideology.
Niall Ferguson: 9/11 Did Not Doom the American Empire
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Historian Niall Ferguson examines whether America qualifies as an empire 25 years after 9/11, challenging both left-wing and neoconservative interpretations of US global power.
- The post contextualizes debates about American imperial ambitions in light of current geopolitical tensions including the ongoing Iran war and Trump's annexation fantasies.
- Ferguson's new history book provides framework for distinguishing between America's self-perception as a liberating power versus its actual imperial actions and their consequences.
Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear
PRIORITYLe Shrub and PauloMacro from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Shrub operator commentary on market conditions with Bessent as Treasury chief and Trump distributing $5,000 cheques creating a 'bull market in memes.'
- Post frames current market environment as satirical financial commentary in the style of Monty Python and Spaceballs.
- Author explicitly disclaims the post as parody and not financial advice, self-deprecating about potential credentials.
Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Podcast conversation between PauloMacro (Cloudbear) and Le Shrub covers bonds, Anthropic IPO, and AI existential risk while maintaining humorous perspective on market absurdity.
- Authors argue that recognizing markets as nonsense helps traders navigate complexity and maintain resilience during volatility.
- Discussion frames current environment as 'Trump's House' with bull market conditions in memes, balancing hard trading realities with comedic irreverence.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Trump administration's fiscal stimulus proposals including $5k payouts for adults face market skepticism about defined spending limits.
- The 2026 macro environment remains volatile with multiple policy shocks testing financial market resilience.
- Federal spending proposals are orders of magnitude larger than initially whispered estimates, creating uncertainty around actual implementation.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trump's promised $5,000 'dividend' to adults if Republicans win midterms is unfunded political rhetoric similar to historical free money promises.
- Politicians routinely make unrealistic fiscal promises, demonstrating why investors should own real assets rather than rely on fiat currency stability.
- The sustainability of fiat currencies is questionable given persistent political overcommitment to unsustainable spending.
betting on direction with short-dated spreads
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Option pricing conventions treat stock movements as percentages rather than dollars, creating asymmetry where upside and downside moves have different log distances.
- Short-dated spreads can capitalize on this asymmetry, particularly when implied volatility is elevated and makes calls grow faster in value than puts.
- This pricing quirk makes it more attractive for hedgers to finance downside protection through out-of-the-money call sales during high IV environments.
Culture · 17
High Protein Pumpkin Spice Chai Latte
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- High-protein pumpkin spice chai latte recipe combines seasonal flavors with macro-friendly ingredients including protein powder and egg white foam.
- Recipe emphasizes competitive nutritional density compared to commercial alternatives like Starbucks offerings.
“We tried to make the house more itself”
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Annie Meyers-Shyer's home renovation book emphasizes meticulous attention to detail, from light switches to electrical circuits, for functional design.
- Preserving original quirks and acknowledging previous renovations creates continuity with a home's history rather than starting fresh.
- Documenting the renovation process thoroughly—including photographing outlets before walls close—provides valuable future reference material.
Rich People Fashion
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Community connections from the RPS newsletter led to an unexpected invitation to the US Open President's Suite.
- Fashion Week and major sporting events reveal patterns in luxury lifestyle and social networking among the affluent.
- Personal anecdotes about professional opportunities underscore how targeted content builds meaningful relationships with high-net-worth audiences.
Anarchy in the BA
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Severino Di Giovanni, an Italian anarchist, was executed in Buenos Aires in 1931 with his final words 'Evviva l'anarchia' before a firing squad.
- Journalist Roberto Arlt witnessed the execution and reported on it for El Mundo, with his editor cutting the opening line about the execution's brutality.
- The execution site at Palermo National Penitentiary is now Las Heras Park, a recreational space where porteños jog and socialize today.
Back on CNBC to talk about the 25th anniversary of 9-11: it’s about remembrance and resiliency
Bob Pisani
- Bob Pisani appeared on CNBC's Morning Call to discuss the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with Morgan Brennan.
- The segment emphasizes the importance of remembrance and teaching younger generations who were not born on 9/11 about the event.
- Key message focuses on broader lessons about resilience in the face of disaster and rebuilding after tragedy.
Remembering 9/11: Five Films That Shaped the West's Memory
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Five films shaped Western cultural memory and competing narratives about 9/11, heroism, and national identity.
- Movies like United 93 and World Trade Center demonstrate how cinema constructs historical understanding across generations.
- Film analysis reveals themes of ordinary courage, vulnerability, and responsibility in response to tragedy.
9/11 Remembrance & Recollection
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Personal reflection on the 23rd anniversary of 9/11 and its profound impact on the nation's communities and survivors.
- Tribute to Derek Sword and the resilience displayed by victims, families, and first responders in the aftermath of the attacks.
- The widespread nature of 9/11's impact across thousands of communities underscores its enduring significance in American history.
Weirdness of General de Gaulle, zoonotic fever in the Indus Valley, PISA decline, Paradise Lost
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- New General de Gaulle film offers French perspective on WWII where Americans emerge as true villains and French as heroes, with Gaulle warning against American world domination.
- Essay explores theory that great leaders tend to be oddballs, arguing eccentricity rather than relatability signals genuine transformative ambition and willingness to sacrifice personal life for greatness.
- Historical and psychological analysis draws on Anthony Storr's essay on Churchill to examine how monomaniacal pursuit of greatness inherently involves derangement and detachment from reality.
Shana Tova
Jonathan Rosen from House of Rosen
- Rosh Hashanah represents a time for reflection and renewal, signaling the need for meaningful change rather than superficial reset.
- The author emphasizes personal accountability by asking 'What am I going to do about it?' when taking stock of life.
- On both religious and personal levels, the author commits to amplifying Jewish voices and deepening his engagement with Jewish identity in the new year.
The Aboriginal Issue
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Arnade opens with a visceral street-level observation of Aboriginal homelessness and alcoholism in Darwin, Australia.
- The scene illustrates systemic marginalization and social dysfunction affecting Indigenous populations.
- The narrative sets up deeper exploration of colonial legacies and contemporary Aboriginal issues through direct human experience rather than abstract analysis.
9/11 and the spirit of resilience and remembering
Bob Pisani
- Bob Pisani, eyewitness to the second tower's collapse on 9/11, reflects on 25 years of resilience and remembrance.
- A recent charitable event awarded $150k in college scholarships to six students who lost loved ones to 9/11-related illnesses.
- The piece emphasizes generational transmission of remembrance, as many survivors were not yet born when the attacks occurred.
Shea Serrano never intended to become a writer. He built a cult following as one anyway.
The Substack Post
- Shea Serrano unintentionally became a writer and built cult influence through his newsletter and new podcast despite never intending a writing career.
- He maintains a curated collection of 1,319 VHS tapes, 400 of which are his favorites catalogued alphabetically and prominently displayed.
- Serrano is a five-time New York Times bestseller and trailblazer in digital media with roots at The Ringer before launching independent ventures.
Shea Serrano did the math on podcasting. Betting on himself was the winning equation.
Substack
- Shea Serrano built a podcast and newsletter following by betting on himself rather than institutional partnerships.
- Recent Substack podcast trends include W. Kamau Bell partnering with Pushkin and Emily Sundberg's Expense Account joining the Obamas' Higher Ground network.
- Native Substack shows like Diabolical Lies have reached significant scale, returning nearly $120k in revenue directly to subscribers.
You Told The Jews To GO HOME. We Did.
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- The post addresses antisemitic tropes about Jews returning to Poland by highlighting that 90% of Polish Jews were killed in the Holocaust, making that suggestion historically ignorant and cruel.
- Author argues that Jewish historical connection to Israel, documented in Torah, Christian Bible, and Quran, is the actual origin that critics dismissively reference.
- Content is framed as a response to anti-Semitic rhetoric telling Jews to 'go back,' countering with historical facts about Jewish persecution and homeland.
Hands-on workshops, pottery studio visits, and meals that celebrate flavor, craft, and time
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Kimbap introduced the author to Korean cuisine through its bold flavor contrasts—salty, tart, rich, savory and minerally—combined with varied textures.
- Korean cuisine is fundamentally defined by fermentation, with pickled radish and soy-based sauces harmonizing the otherwise contradictory flavor profiles.
- The post previews a hands-on exploration of Seoul's markets, barbecue alleys, fermentation studios, and temple kitchens to experience Korean food craft and tradition.
Toxic Positivity
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- The Raygun (Rachael Gunn) documentary exposes how toxic positivity from coaches, family, and federation members masked her lack of actual skill until her public failure at the Olympics.
- The core cruelty was not internet backlash post-failure but years of flattery from people who knew the truth, allowing her to walk toward a stage that would expose them.
- The pattern illustrates how dishonest support can be more damaging than external criticism because it prevents genuine self-awareness and growth.
Hot Sauce MacGyver
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Hot sauce fermentation requires a precise three percent saline solution (30g salt per liter of water) to trigger beneficial lactic acid bacteria from pepper skins.
- Critical technique is keeping all peppers submerged below waterline to prevent bad yeasts and molds; author engineered a custom plastic screen to replace standard fermentation weights.
- The post demonstrates practical problem-solving and experimentation in home fermentation, with detailed technical guidance on achieving consistent results.
Politics · 16
Road Rage
environMENTAL
- Senator Mike Lee's attempt to open 2-3 million acres of Western public lands for private development faced backlash from both Democrats and Republican outdoors enthusiasts.
- The provision aimed to address housing crisis but alienated hunting, fishing, and recreation constituencies that typically support Republican candidates.
- Political leaders risk eroding their own voter base by pursuing policies that go too far on core issues, even when fulfilling campaign promises.
From Reckoning to Joy
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Jewish tradition structures the new year with judgment first (Rosh Hashanah), atonement (Yom Kippur), and then joy (Sukkot), creating meaningful progression.
- This ordering differs from Western secular New Year celebrations that often collapse within weeks due to lack of foundational reckoning.
- Historical context of 9/11 marks a quarter-century since civilization faced existential threats, reinforcing the importance of honest self-reflection before celebration.
War of the Worlds
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Personal 9/11 recollection captures the generational moment when the author learned the world had fundamentally changed.
- The 2001 Durban Conference shifted from anti-racism focus to anti-Israel and anti-Western rhetoric, promoting the 'Zionism = Racism' narrative.
- Historical context shows how geopolitical crises reshape public discourse and policy priorities in real time.
Friday Five (September 11, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Friday Five is a new feature highlighting five perspectives or analyses from the past week and beyond to help readers navigate media saturation.
- The post acknowledges the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and its lasting impact on American life and geopolitics.
- Featured analysis includes Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib's piece on Hamas and Gaza recovery, among other curated perspectives.
25 Years After 9/11, America Has FORGOTTEN Who the Enemy Was
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Author recounts her personal experience learning about the 9/11 attacks while running at dawn in Santa Monica, listening to multiple radio stations covering the unfolding event.
- She reflects on the surreal experience of knowing critical information before others around her and questioning whether she was overreacting.
- The piece explores how the event was perceived and processed in real-time by those who witnessed it unfold live.
25 Years After 9/11, The Event Is Being Distorted Into Anti-Jewish Propaganda
John Aziz
- Author shares personal memories of visiting the World Trade Center in April 2001, including staying in a hotel within the Marriott building that was destroyed.
- He recalls the significance of 9/11 being serious enough for teachers to interrupt class instruction in England, marking it as a rare geopolitical event that commanded immediate attention.
- The post examines how 9/11 and subsequent geopolitical narratives are being distorted and politicized in contemporary discourse.
I’ve finished the book. What a shambles I’ve come back to.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Britain announced sanctions against Israeli settlements including restrictions on settlement goods and wider business targeting powers.
- International coordination from France, Canada, and other nations signals sustained pressure through multi-country sanctions strategy.
- Economic impact of immediate sanctions measures may underestimate their eventual geopolitical significance over time.
As the Summer Fades, Energy Begins to Heat-Up
Open Insights
- U.S. military strategy relies on declaring victory while preserving optionality to continue operations post-election, masking deeper strategic failures.
- Iran is winning strategically, tactically, and in information warfare despite U.S. efforts to manage perception around the conflict.
- Defense Department rebranding and institutional pressure toward conflict have created a self-perpetuating cycle of military intervention.
British Israeli terror victim blasts UK Sanctions. The battle over Israel’s disputed territory, and how one man de…
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- A British-Israeli terror victim's family questions UK sanctions on Israel and whether British taxpayers should fund families of convicted terrorists.
- British sanctions proposals targeting Jews in the West Bank raise humanitarian concerns about who actually suffers from such measures.
- The article raises tensions between international sanctions policy and the specific impact on civilian populations in disputed territories.
The Emptiness of Contemporary Politics
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Contemporary politics has become an empty spectacle where both parties recycle failures and whip up voter anxieties about China, AI, manufacturing, healthcare, and housing affordability.
- Democrats and Republicans deploy emotional activism, fantastical policy proposals, and villain narratives while lacking substantive solutions to structural economic problems.
- The political cycle prioritizes short-term election gains over addressing the legitimate crises voters care about, creating a cycle of disappointment regardless of which party wins.
The Problem With Cheering For The Underdog In Geopolitics
John Aziz
- Aziz criticizes British PM Andy Burnham's defense of Palestinian interests based solely on 'underdog' status rather than legal fairness.
- Underdog culture pervasive in British sports and politics can cloud judgment on complex geopolitical issues requiring law-based analysis.
- The author argues that power dynamics should not determine support for policies; rule of law and fairness must be the guiding principles.
- British political discourse often prioritizes rooting for the weaker party over evaluating rights and legal merit objectively.
Hating America and Blaming the U.S. for 9/11
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali reviews a 2002 progressive critique of America that rehashes shopworn anti-American stereotypes while disavowing violence.
- The book insinuates that America's foreign policy and cultural insularity justify hatred, ultimately appearing to rationalize 9/11.
- Ali critiques the dishonesty of progressive intellectuals who condemn terrorism while advancing arguments that implicitly excuse it.
Anniversary Update: Charlie Kirk's Most Misunderstood Messages
Kaizen Asiedu
- Kaizen Asiedu marks one year since Charlie Kirk's assassination, noting plans to disrupt his memorials reflect misunderstanding of his actual message.
- Kirk's critics labeled him hateful for race-related comments, but the author argues it was speech that critics hate, not hate speech itself.
- The post emphasizes that Kirk's death should have prompted societal consensus that violence is never acceptable in response to speech.
Democrats, the DSA, and the Working Class
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Ruy Teixeira argues DSA represents a 'vanguard of radical professionals' rather than a takeover of the Democratic Party, distinguishing between class composition and actual party control.
- Interview transcript covers Democrats' relationship with the working class, culture wars, and electoral strategy for 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential race.
- Teixeira reassesses his influential 'Emerging Democratic Majority' thesis a quarter century later against current political realignment and socialist influence within progressive movements.
The first man to die on 9/11 was an Israeli commando
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Danny Lewin, an Israeli commando and Akamai founder, was the first person killed on 9/11, stabbed by hijackers on American Airlines Flight 11.
- Lewin's company's content delivery network infrastructure held during the massive traffic surge on 9/11 despite unprecedented demand.
- A major Muslim advocacy group's 2026 curriculum attributed the 9/11 attacks to Israel, omitting Lewin's sacrifice and the actual historical facts of the attacks.
The Ghost of 1991: How Europe Got Addicted to the US ‘Unipolar Illusion’ -- and Can Build a Better Future
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Western policymakers have been trapped by the 'Unipolar Illusion' since the 1991 Gulf War, falsely assuming technological superiority alone can solve geopolitical problems.
- Operation Desert Storm's swift tactical victory created a dangerous precedent that precision airpower could resolve any political conflict without deeper strategic preparation.
- Europe and the West entered 2026 structurally unprepared for prolonged attrition because thirty-five years of military doctrine was built on an intellectually flawed foundation.
Energy · 13
Apricity or Bust
PAIDDoomberg
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces severe political pressure with 15% approval rating after his party's electoral losses in regional elections.
- European Union's misguided energy policies—including losing heavy industry and raising costs—have fueled populist backlash across member states.
- Energy policy failures upstream drive multiple downstream crises: economic pain, industrial decline, and voter rejection of foreign policy adventures.
Oil Context Weekly (W37)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Weekly oil market summary covers flat crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning across global markets.
- Keystone XL resurrection and North American pipeline infrastructure face competition between private and strategic capacity amid changing crude sourcing.
- Venezuelan heavy crude's return to U.S. markets poses competitive pressure against Canadian barrels in North American refining.
The Sahara Feint
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- The EU's proposed 'green supergrid' carrying solar power from North Africa to Europe via Mediterranean cables is presented as mostly cover for continued energy subsidies rather than genuine market-based renewable transition.
- Since the 1990s, European governments have deployed policies nominally promoting renewable energy while actually derisking business revenues and maintaining state control through market-adjacent mechanisms.
- Projects like Desertec promise transformative capacity (powering one-fifth of Europe by 2050) but face structural political and economic obstacles that make such visions primarily rhetorical.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Premium low-vol coking coal held flat at $284.30/t fob Australia while second-tier hard coking coal eased slightly.
- SGX coking coal futures dropped sharply with September contracts falling $10 and longer-dated positions under pressure.
- Buyer sentiment weakened as market participants awaited clearer directional signals before committing to positions.
Guilt-tripping on a new level
Irina Slav on energy
- Nepal is demanding that major carbon emitters (China, US, India) pay climate reparations for damages from catastrophic floods despite contributing minimal global emissions.
- The author criticizes the victimhood mentality underlying climate reparations demands as unsustainable policy.
- Distinguishing responsibility for emissions from causation of specific weather events is critical to evaluating climate reparations claims.
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/10
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Houthi capture of key Red Sea areas and attacks on Saudi infrastructure triggered Saudi Arabia's largest production drop since 1990, reducing output by more than half despite backup mechanisms.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure threat represents critical geopolitical leverage point affecting global oil markets and energy infrastructure rerouting strategies.
- MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research expanding focus with organizational changes and increased resources dedicated to energy sector coverage through 2027.
(Public. No Paywall) When a Chart Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Oil Exports from Western Ports
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Article examines Saudi oil exports from Western ports with a chart-based analysis providing key market insights.
- Focuses on visual data representation to convey complex energy market dynamics.
- Offers public access content without paywall to broad readership on energy market trends.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 9-4-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- EIA inventory data shows total stock build of 6.3 MMB, with crude down 0.4 MMB and SPR drawn by 1.2 MMB.
- WTI spot price of $104 now exceeds estimated fair value based on inventory-derived pricing models, signaling caution for long exposure.
- US crude storage at lowest levels since 1984 when combining commercial inventories with SPR; SPR releases scheduled to end in September.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Trader Nico adopts a bearish stance into Friday's WASDE report, citing distrust in USDA figures which he views as politically influenced.
- Cash markets show weakness, providing fundamental support for bearish positioning ahead of yield and disruption data.
- September WASDE will update corn and soybean yields and potentially address Black Sea supply disruptions.
- Market will trade the WASDE data regardless, making it a key event for commodity traders.
Ontario’s Nuclear Plan Is The Right Way To Go
jaberwock from jaberwock’s Newsletter
- Ontario's nuclear expansion plan represents the correct approach to meeting future electricity demand in the province.
- Environmental Defense Foundation's anti-nuclear advocacy, which influenced the Toronto Star opinion piece, has historically damaged energy policy in New York.
- Non-experts without electrical systems knowledge are promoting misleading anti-nuclear arguments funded by ideological NGOs.
- Nuclear power expansion is superior to alternatives for addressing decarbonization goals while maintaining reliable electricity supply.
Oil Shockwave: Diesel Crisis, $122 Asian Crude, and the SPR Draw That Barely Moved the Needle
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Asian crude oil prices reached $122 as diesel crisis impacts global energy markets and supply chains.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw shows limited effectiveness in addressing current oil market pressures.
- Diesel shortage represents a critical supply shock with downstream economic implications.
- Oil market experiencing significant volatility with multiple disruption factors impacting prices globally.
OPEC+ Data Deck (September 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Saudi crude production plummeted to 6,238 kbpd in August 2026—the lowest since Desert Storm in 1990—due to Houthi attacks and Red Sea disruptions.
- Overall OPEC+ output rose 627 kbpd in August, with Iraq driving gains through aggressive discounting and heavy shuttle trade.
- The 50-page OPEC+ Data Deck tracks quota compliance, exports, and production reconciliation across member states for subscribers.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatility coal firmed with Argus assessing prices up $3/t to $284.30/t, driven by two major trades above prior survey ranges.
- SGX coal futures showed mixed signals with September rising $2/t but the curve inverting sharply with October through December declining.
- The 2027 coal strip continued to soften, reflecting longer-term market weakness despite near-term price strength.
Markets · 12
Bessent’s Gamble
Peruvian Bull
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed coordination with Tokyo gives him insider control over dollar-yen dynamics and challenged traders to bet against him.
- Japanese yen has recovered nearly 6% from July 2025 low of 163.87, touching 153.63 in a seven-month high as of writing.
- Bessent's public confidence and direct access to policy makers represent unusual leverage for a sitting Treasury Secretary in currency markets.
Free Money: A Santelli Special
Nico from AiQ
- USDA and WASDE reports showed major forecasting failures on grain and sugar balance sheets, appearing disconnected from actual market conditions.
- India is shifting ethanol production from sugar to rice and corn amid global supply pressures and extreme weather in key regions.
- Arkansas experienced record-hot flowering conditions while EU weather was worst on record, yet official supply estimates were raised across all three commodities.
Oracle, Capital Expenditure by Another Name
Cape Fear Advisors
- Oracle reported $90-95B capex with only ~$70B from its own cash; the gap is filled via customer prepayments, customer hardware, and supplier financing.
- Customer prepayment line ($11.4B, new this year) accounts for 49% of record operating cash flow and obscures true capital expenditure burden.
- Free cash flow appears positive using net cash outlay accounting but negative $5.4B when counted on actual capital spending basis, revealing accounting methodology differences.
Bonds, Treasury QE and the ‘3-3-3-30’ Policy Framework
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Rising bond yields globally are not primarily driven by investor concerns about fiscal deficits or loss of confidence in US Treasuries, contrary to financial press narratives.
- Term premia are not widening materially, which contradicts the theory that Treasury reserve status is being eroded.
- Bond markets underpin the global collateral system and determine funding conditions, making them critical for understanding all investment hurdle rates.
The Groupon Turnaround — Dušan Šenkypl & Rana Kashyap | Ep. 3
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Groupon CEO and CFO discuss turnaround strategy centered on AI-native marketplace for local experiences.
- Company is rebuilding customer trust while implementing AI infrastructure (Project Foundry) to improve recommendations and booking.
- Focus on converting single-purchase customers into repeat buyers to drive earnings and free cash flow growth.
The Five Deals That Made Apollo
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
- Bill Cohan's 'Money to Burn' chronicles Leon Black's rise from Drexel's M&A head to Apollo's founder and his ultimate downfall.
- Black's unexplained $158 million payment to Jeffrey Epstein for financial advice remains a central mystery despite extensive interviews for the book.
- Apollo's filings provide critical insight into the inner workings of the modern financial industry and alternative asset management.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets rise as yields fall ahead of CPI data; AI doomsday scenarios lack logic since software tools have no reason to develop independent illegal goals.
- Americans embrace socialist ideals because capitalism has eliminated material scarcity, leaving only prosperity itself to oppose.
- Personal well-being and joy return from simple activities like walking dogs and engaging with nature, not gaming or economic concerns.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets higher as 10-year yield pauses near 5%, with S&P up 54bp and international markets showing mixed performance across Europe and Asia.
- CPI data expected to be key focus with 10-year yield approaching 5% threshold, while geopolitical tensions including Iran ballistic missile production and Democratic polling lead shape market sentiment.
- Asian markets declined (Japan -50bp, China -1.2%, Korea -1.8%) amid broader concerns about China's global legal reach and Europe's AI policy challenges.
The Sports Ownership Boom
Andrew Sarna
- Private equity has rapidly entered sports ownership following NFL approval in summer 2024, with NBA seeing the most capital inflow including dedicated vehicles like Dyal's Home Court strategy.
- Sports franchise valuations are parabolic based on limited supply of teams and billionaire wealth concentration, with values driven by sales multiples despite minimal profit generation.
- Franchise valuations depend on greater fool theory and collectible asset logic rather than fundamental returns, as owners reinvest nearly all profits back into teams.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry discusses shorting the dollar through alternative asset allocation strategies.
- Quantum computing and AI advances by 2029 could threaten digital asset security across banking and investment systems.
- Real assets like gold positioned to outperform amid cybersecurity and digital currency risks.
- Dollar reserve status likely to accelerate decline as investors shift toward tangible assets.
Shorting the Dollar by Drinking Free First Growth Bordeaux
Michael Burry
- IBM expects to deliver large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer Starling by 2029 with unknown security implications.
- AI and quantum computing may create vulnerabilities in digital assets including bank accounts, investments, pensions, and Social Security.
- Gaps in system transitions from digital vulnerabilities could range from painful to catastrophic.
- Gold performing strongly as a hedge against potential cyber threats and dollar reserve currency decline.
The Circle at the Gate
Cape Fear Advisors
- Credit ratings are relationship-based, not company-based properties, explaining why different agencies assign different grades to the same issuer.
- SoftBank's announcement of an A-rated bond while publicly stating it has no relationship with Moody's highlights tensions between rating agencies and issuers.
- The structure of credit rating systems creates circular dependencies where lease guarantees and investment decisions influence how agencies assess creditworthiness.
Macro · 7
The Price Of Surviving Monetary Regime Change
Capital Flows
- A fundamental shift is occurring in WHERE capital originates, driven by sovereign debt risk and monetary regime change.
- Sovereign debt crises do not guarantee risk assets appreciate; returns are reduced when assets denominated in devaluing currencies face hedging costs.
- Understanding capital flows and real purchasing power changes caused by sovereign debt risk is essential for navigating current market conditions.
The Problem With “Higher for Longer”
Global Macro Method
- Futures curves price rates peaking in September 2027 with minimal 9-12 basis point declines through December 2028, reflecting persistent policy tightening.
- Markets can be correct about inflation scares but wrong about how long policy tightening needs to last, creating an important distinction for trading.
- One market stands out for requiring minimal change to validate asymmetrical trade opportunities within the yield curve.
No Regrets & The Second Strait
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Houthi forces seized Yemen's Mocha port and are advancing toward Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially creating a second chokepoint after Hormuz and entering a 'new and more dangerous phase' per UN assessment.
- US diesel reached $6/gallon for first time in history and Brent crude touched $107 (+10% since Monday) as Middle East conflict escalates and supply route alternatives face disruption.
- Bond market faces significant headwinds from geopolitical risk and inflation concerns ahead of CPI data, with thin 'reopening' story undermined by declining tanker traffic and renewed supply disruptions.
Midweek Macro Note: Portfolio Strategy Update, Natural Gas Outlook, Bond Bonanza
MacroEdge Research
- Hot PPI data triggered selling waterfall in rates with SOFR futures pricing ~25bp of tightening between now and June 2027 ahead of CPI release.
- Speculation about Houthi rebels hitting Saudi Arabia's pipeline rerouting crude exports coincided with Treasury Secretary Bessent's market-challenging rhetoric on Yen, potentially accentuating recent yield increases.
- MacroEdge flagging organizational changes and split team resources for continued effective coverage of energy and macro dynamics through end of year and into 2027.
Crackers About Caracas!
Benny and The Squirrel
- Episode 85 features interview with Herve van Caloen, veteran international investor with 40+ years of experience across markets.
- Discussion centers on Venezuela (Caracas) amid broader macroeconomic and geopolitical context.
- Show notes upgraded with bonus content now distributed separately to subscribers shortly after YouTube release.
Kotok Report Quick Take — PPI is Hot!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- August 2026 PPI showed processed goods up 1.8%, unprocessed goods up 1.1%, and services up 0.3% month-over-month.
- Processed goods surge follows a 0.6% decline in July, signaling a reversal in the disinflationary trend.
- Video commentary from David Kotok included alongside detailed PPI breakdown and analysis for subscribers.
Interest Rates and Stock Prices: An Old Debate Resurfaces!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Long-term US Treasury rates have risen to 20-year highs, driven by concerns over $40+ trillion national debt and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's uncertain policy direction.
- Interest rate movements in 2026 should be analyzed with longer-term perspective and compared to government bond yields across other currencies.
- The relationship between interest rates and stock prices, a recurring debate, resurfaces as central concern amid multiple macro headwinds including Iran tensions and recession worries.