Substack Dashboard

Updated Tuesday, September 08 2026 · 06:18 AM CDT · 71 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 7

Spencer Cox: The Day Charlie Kirk Died. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Charlie Kirk was assassinated on September 10, 2025, by a 31-year-old shooter at Utah Valley University in front of millions.
  • Utah Governor Spencer Cox was present within hours and led the effort to find the shooter, becoming a voice for mending broken American politics.
  • Kirk's death did not serve as the unifying wake-up call some hoped for and instead unleashed further political derangement.
Sep 08, 05:04 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Macro Charts

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • WTI crude oil is pushing above July highs near $95 with resistance at $99-100, with daily RSI near July's peak of 71.
  • Copper is rallying out of consolidation into range of new all-time highs while yields and precious metals show muted reactions.
  • An open gap remains at $107-108 for WTI crude oil, representing potential upside resistance.
Sep 08, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

Being Jewish is Punk

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • Jewish identity is framed as an active choice to question, build, thrive, and resist rather than a passive assigned status.
  • Jews represent 0.2% of global population yet face persistent historical persecution despite being Holocaust survivors and establishing rights to homeland and self-defense.
  • Jewish resilience and refusal to be silenced is portrayed as the true source of ongoing obsession and fixation from others.
  • The piece asserts Jewish people have asked for thousands of years simply to exist peacefully, a request persistently denied.
Sep 08, 03:12 AMRead on Substack →

IS IT THE END OF THE ROAD FOR GLD/TLT?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • GLD/TLT trade strategy may be ending as long-dated treasury returns have deteriorated worse than 1970s levels due to lower coupon duration.
  • 10-year commodity returns have strengthened, questioning whether sustained bearish positioning on treasuries remains optimal.
  • Political shift back to fiscal conservatism would signal the end of this trade setup.
Sep 07, 08:32 AMRead on Substack →

I Was a Workaholic. Quitting Changed My Life.

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Reformed workaholic author challenges cultural glorification of relentless grind, particularly after recognizing darker patterns in pursuit of perseverance.
  • Quitting is reframed as courageous decision-making and path to something better, not a failure of resolve.
  • Essay examines generational shifts in work meaning and sustainability as economic structures around employment continue evolving.
Sep 07, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

The Quiet Turning

PRIORITY
Michael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
  • Market participants have internalized that grifting behavior goes unpunished, making bets on fraud a rational market strategy.
  • Exaggeration and deception are now normalized in pitching to tech companies, treated as ordinary marketing rather than fraud.
  • Truthful data loses competitive advantage when inflated claims are accepted without audit or consequence.
  • Common knowledge of institutional weakness enables moral hazard to become a dominant strategy in capital allocation.
Sep 06, 10:10 AMRead on Substack →

STRAP YOURSELF IN...

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Barron's cover declaring 'death of safe haven' in bonds echoes previous market proclamations after decade-long asset class performance drought.
  • Positioning extremes across markets create dangerous conditions: S&P at 92nd percentile long, VIX near all-time short extreme, SOFR at record short.
  • Treasury yield rises pose portfolio risks but may represent bond recovery rather than permanent obsolescence of the asset class.
  • September marks one of the most important macro weeks with significant market positioning risks and potential history-making moves ahead.
Sep 06, 06:49 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 18

Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Global liquidity supported by benign funding conditions but underlying liquidity creation remains weak with negative SMB growth.
  • Investor risk appetite remains strong, increasingly favoring select developed markets and commodity-related emerging markets.
Sep 08, 05:30 AMRead on Substack →

The Bond Vigilantes Hold the Keys

Andrew Sarna
  • Bond vigilantes are revolting with rising global yields creating a serious problem for markets and policymakers, trapping US policy between rate hike and fiscal worsening.
  • Fed Governor Waller's dovish stance pushed yields down but strong payroll data increased September rate hike probability, with CPI next week critical.
  • Hyperscaler capital spending continues pushing yields higher while fiscal restraint faces political obstacles and entitlement reform remains off the table.
Sep 08, 04:44 AMRead on Substack →

Weekly Macro Note: Another Day, More Inflation and Around the Globe We Go

MacroEdge Research
  • Labor Day marks a seasonal turning point where market participants lock focus through year-end amid robust economic changes ahead.
  • Energy price movements and yields matter more than Fed rate decisions; fiscal dominance and compromised macro data require reliance on alternative signals.
  • Whether Fed moves 25 basis points or stays put will have minimal immediate effect—yields will either rise (if no hike) or remain rangebound (if hike).
  • The critical question for Q4 is interpreting low-quality macro data through energy and yield dynamics rather than FOMC headline moves.
Sep 08, 01:32 AMRead on Substack →

The Short Side of National Security

Craig Tindale
  • Government financing for industrial expansion must secure actual production capacity, not just factory announcements; Roosevelt tied public investment to preventing war profiteering.
  • Financial actors can profit by short-selling defense contractors while Washington commits public money to their factories, creating perverse incentives against national security.
  • Capital access and qualification timelines matter more than award announcements; without financing for inventory and production, factories remain mere paper commitments.
  • JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs openly profit from securities lending and short positions against strategic industrial builders, betting against US national security.
Sep 08, 01:14 AMRead on Substack →

Observations: Marking to market

Thematic Markets
  • Author's views on Kevin Warsh tightening Fed policy significantly and Trump pursuing aggressive Iran policy have been sharply challenged by recent market action.
  • While some associated market calls proved definitively wrong, time has not yet rendered final judgment on the underlying strategic positions.
  • Expectations for economy, inflation and broader market trends have held up better than specific policy and geopolitical calls.
  • Post updates published views against market feedback received over the last month to reassess positioning.
Sep 08, 01:02 AMRead on Substack →

This isn’t just about Jaguar Land Rover (or VW)

Ed Conway
  • Supply chains function like fungal mycelium underpinning modern economy; most knowledge about them comes from observing failures rather than normal operation.
  • VW/JLR troubles exemplify broader supply chain vulnerabilities; understanding how systems break reveals structural design lessons.
  • Complex interconnections in global supply chains mean localized disruptions cascade economically; Japan's 2011 tsunami wiped out critical nodes in auto production.
  • Economic systems are best understood through extreme cases and breakdowns rather than steady-state operation.
Sep 08, 12:49 AMRead on Substack →

Walk in the Pines #413

PAID
Pinecone Weekly Brief
  • Newsletter aggregates key macro reads, listens, and watches including Nazem's three-part valuation series and Norway SWF Treasury reduction proposal.
  • Includes Seneca quote warning against guiding lives by others' examples rather than reason and convention.
  • Features Must Founders podcasts on capital allocation (Henry Singleton) and Napoleon, plus PBS Frontline retrospective on Asian Financial Crisis.
  • Provides charts of the week and curated content across reads, listens, and watches categories.
Sep 07, 10:19 PMRead on Substack →

[Chart] Fed is a Go

Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
  • Fed funds rate should be at 5% based on historical reaction functions to inflation expectations and labor market; currently only at 3.75%, leaving 100+ bps of tightening work.
  • Inflation expectations have anchored into a new higher range and labor market is heating up again, signaling need for rate hikes despite recent Fed hesitation.
  • Market calm, easy financial conditions, and elevated bond yields suggest markets have already priced in rate hike expectations.
  • Over 40% of global central banks have already shifted to rate hike mode; Fed faces pressure to normalize policy or risk credibility.
Sep 07, 10:16 PMRead on Substack →

I Read All 17 BRICS Declarations. Here's What They Actually Built.

Santiago Capital Research
  • Analysis of all 17 prior BRICS declarations reveals actual institutional outputs versus hyperbolic media narratives about dollar replacement.
  • BRICS summits have produced limited concrete economic infrastructure despite longstanding rhetoric about ending dollar dominance.
  • Research relies exclusively on official BRICS documents and audited accounts rather than speculation about upcoming 18th summit outcomes.
Sep 07, 08:07 AMRead on Substack →

Money on sale

Irina Slav on energy
  • Money-printing colloquially refers to debt issuance rather than literal currency creation, which would cause hyperinflation in advanced economies.
  • Global sovereign debt markets show signs of oversaturation as evidenced by recent bond selloff headlines.
  • Understanding the distinction between stocks and bonds reveals why debt accumulation has limits before market stress emerges.
Sep 07, 07:03 AMRead on Substack →

The Eighteenth Brumaire

Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
  • Report covers 200+ slides analyzing commodities, equities, credit markets, and emerging markets through macro themes of fiscal dominance and monetary debasement.
  • Explores historical-political parallels (Eighteenth Brumaire) connected to current fiscal urgency and credit market signals.
  • Examines Chinese economic dynamics including Yuan internationalization and emerging market positioning alongside traditional asset classes.
Sep 07, 06:33 AMRead on Substack →

The Free Ride on the Dollar is Over with Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist.

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio of 8% far exceeds peers (Canada 2.5%, Europe 2.5-3%, Japan 2%), contradicting decades of fiscal responsibility rhetoric.
  • American market dominance over past 20 years resulted from willingness to run large deficits attracting global talent and capital, not superior companies or investors.
  • Shifting tariff policies and fiscal dynamics suggest the structural conditions supporting U.S. exceptionalism and market concentration may be ending.
Sep 07, 05:32 AMRead on Substack →

The ECB Can Hike... But....

Global Macro Method
  • Market pricing shows 99.6% probability of September ECB 25-basis-point hike, with deeper tightening priced through 2027 reaching near 3% rates.
  • Opportunity lies in distinguishing between whether Europe faces a durable inflation cycle or absorbs a front-loaded shock that weakens demand.
  • Inflation swaps, wage data, and German yield curve signals suggest market may be overpricing the extent of future ECB tightening.
Sep 07, 05:20 AMRead on Substack →

The Uninsured Dollar

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • Foreign holders of US assets have reduced currency hedges to only 41% of exposure, the lowest since 2015, betting the dollar remains strong.
  • Recent strong August payroll data (162k vs 56k forecast) temporarily firmed the dollar but masks underlying structural support mechanisms that are shifting.
  • Rising US rates and the carry trade have supported the dollar, but these drivers may not be sustainable if economic conditions change.
Sep 07, 03:19 AMRead on Substack →

The Great Monetary Escalation

Capital Flows
  • The current global monetary crisis centers on public sector imbalances and real purchasing power erosion, forcing policymakers to choose between fiscal constraints and geopolitical needs.
  • Rising defense spending demands due to China threat are pushing governments into fiscal corners, evidenced by Germany's industrial decline and subsequent consumer tax increases.
  • The conflict between fiscal spending requirements and funding constraints is creating unprecedented pressure on the global monetary system across multiple countries.
Sep 06, 11:37 PMRead on Substack →

Passivity

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Passive easing continues monthly as Fed maintains rates, with strong economic acceleration in Redbook Sales, ISM, and NFP data creating tightening pressure.
  • FOMC credibility is undermined by inconsistent signaling, particularly Fed Waller changing policy stance three times in consecutive speeches with no clear framework.
  • Political pressure against rate increases and loss of appeal for US Treasuries among foreign investors may override data-driven policy decisions, with CPI becoming the deciding factor.
Sep 06, 06:24 PMRead on Substack →

The right answer to the wrong question?

Rishi Mishra from On Another Note
  • Labor force growth constraints mean payroll data will swing wildly month-to-month, reducing its reliability as a single indicator.
  • The unemployment rate at 4.1% is the most meaningful labor metric—slightly below the Fed's 4.2% long-run projection and above their 4.0% floor.
  • Low odds of a September rate hike seem inconsistent with persistent inflation overshoot, despite Fed Chair Waller conditioning hikes on achieving 2% inflation.
Sep 06, 02:03 PMRead on Substack →

Weekend thoughts

Gold and geopolitics
  • Gold miners' all-in sustaining costs rose 16% YoY for the 28th consecutive year amid grade depletion and reduced drilling.
  • Global bond yields hit highest levels since 2008; Japan's 10-year yield crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years, signaling major shift in fixed income.
  • Multiple structural shifts emerging: silver production deficits, record diesel prices, all-time low oil inventories, and data centers consuming 7% of US electricity.
Sep 06, 01:31 PMRead on Substack →

Politics · 11

The Tyranny of the Tiny Majority

Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
  • America faces a 'tyranny of the tiny majority' where closely divided elections enable control of government with sub-50% popular vote support.
  • Recent electoral history shows repeated narrow mandates: Trump won with 46.1% in 2016, Biden with 51.3% in 2020, and Trump again with 49.8% in 2024.
  • Winner-take-all, two-party system dynamics produce unstable governance that fails to serve interests of both parties or independents.
Sep 08, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

THE SUM OF ALL EUROPEAN FEARS: THE COST OF RESOLVE

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • Russia is using drone and missile campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure to induce financial exhaustion and political collapse rather than military defeat.
  • European leaders face escalating costs of supporting Ukraine as precision strikes and oil chokepoint threats reshape strategic calculations.
  • Moscow is betting Western resolve will fracture before Russian economic resilience; history suggests Ukrainian resistance may harden instead and Europe may accept higher costs as preferable to failure.
  • The widening conflict across Iran-Gulf-Ukraine demonstrates how modern warfare chains transcend borders and force allied commitment decisions.
Sep 08, 03:46 AMRead on Substack →

Palestinianism continues to drag Britain down, as Burnham to fast-track sanctions on Israel

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • Britain is preparing to sanction Israel over E1 building tenders, with Ed Miliband claiming it destroys the two-state solution.
  • The author argues the two-state solution was never binding under Oslo Accords and was effectively ended by October 7, 2023 attacks.
  • The piece criticizes UK policy as appeasement to a vocal minority that damages Britain's foreign policy and reputation.
Sep 07, 07:38 PMRead on Substack →

UK Foreign Secretary releases anti-Israel video as Labour government poised to sanction Israel

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham is set to announce fast-tracked sanctions against Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria.
  • Announcement follows UK Foreign Secretary releasing an anti-Israel video and comes amid by-election threat in Sir Keir Starmer's former seat.
  • Plans face criticism from the White House and some Labour MPs despite government backing.
Sep 07, 04:24 PMRead on Substack →

We’re witnessing the start of Britain’s Civil War

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Britain experienced major civil unrest over a weekend with migrant boat crossings, road blockades, and police riot formations at Dover and Portsmouth.
  • Events marked rise of organized anti-immigration activism with tens of thousands watching protests unfold live online.
  • Author examines broader implications of the escalating tensions and civil disorder.
Sep 07, 04:03 PMRead on Substack →

“Adidas Partners with war criminals”

Roy Ben-Tzvi
  • Adidas promoted disabled Israeli athlete Shalev Biton, an amputee who lost his leg to anti-tank missile fire from Gaza, as part of its Single Shoe accessibility initiative.
  • The story highlights the tension between corporate social responsibility initiatives and geopolitical sensitivities in conflict-affected regions.
  • Article examines how companies navigate partnerships with individuals affected by military conflict and broader political narratives.
Sep 07, 06:27 AMRead on Substack →

The BBC has been up to its old tricks – again

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • BBC producer engagement with the author dropped almost immediately after October 7, 2023, despite the Middle East becoming the biggest international story.
  • Author attributes the shift to groupthink, ideological monoculture, or institutional bias at the BBC rather than explicit conspiracy.
  • Recent BBC interactions have been marked by poor treatment and perceived haughtiness toward the author, reflecting broader editorial decisions.
Sep 07, 05:32 AMRead on Substack →

US ambassador Huckabee accuses UK government of ‘Jew hate’ over Mililband’s claim Israel blocks medicine from Gaza

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • UK Foreign Secretary Miliband released unverified claims that Israel blocks medicine from Gaza, escalating tensions during a sensitive period for British Jews.
  • US Ambassador Huckabee accused the British government of 'Jew hate' over these claims, while Israeli Foreign Minister Saar warned of punitive action.
  • The controversy highlights diplomatic friction between US, UK, and Israeli positions on Gaza humanitarian access.
Sep 06, 03:46 PMRead on Substack →

BBC Radio 4 invited me on… to accuse me of ‘rage baiting’

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • BBC Radio 4 invited Sacerdoti to discuss multi-faith prayer rooms but pre-loaded criticism of 'rage-baiting' sourced from the Muslim Council of Britain.
  • The MCB has faced government refusal to engage due to concerns about links to Islamist movements and past statements on violence.
  • The incident raises questions about editorial fairness when broadcasters solicit opposing statements before air without disclosure.
Sep 06, 03:43 PMRead on Substack →

#4 A Note From Ayaan: 9/11 — Refusing to Forget

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • An entire generation of Americans has no direct memory of 9/11, placing responsibility on those who lived through it to preserve accurate historical record.
  • Western institutions often retreat into euphemism about the Islamist ideology behind the attacks, avoiding clear language about the threat.
  • Honest remembrance requires naming the attackers, their ideology, and intentions—essential for maintaining clarity about how terrorism threatens liberal democracies.
Sep 06, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

The Chicago Teachers Union is suing me

Austin Berg | The Last Ward
  • Chicago Teachers Union filed defamation lawsuit against journalist Austin Berg, attempting to suppress reporting on union leadership and political operations.
  • Berg stands by his reporting and pledges to continue investigating the union's inner workings and consequences for Chicago educators.
  • Lawsuit appears designed to silence valid criticism through legal intimidation rather than address factual content.
  • Author calls for public support through donations and reader engagement with coverage of accountability issues.
Sep 06, 09:22 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 8

A Few Thoughts About Alex Gibney’s Musk Documentary

Lawrence from Lawrence Fossi’s Substack
  • Documentary filmmaker Alex Gibney interviewed the author for a forthcoming Musk documentary after initially declining participation.
  • Gibney is known for critically acclaimed documentaries on Enron, Elizabeth Holmes, and Lance Armstrong, consulting with Tesla critic Ed Niedermeyer.
  • The original story focused on Musk's attempt to get the author fired over critical Tesla financial reporting and business practice investigations.
Sep 07, 07:19 PMRead on Substack →

After racist comments about Andi Peters, Miriam Margolyes moves on to “fat people” and “cripples”

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • Miriam Margolyes made offensive, patronizing, and racist remarks about ITV presenter Andi Peters on This Morning.
  • The author argues Margolyes' pattern of controversial provocations should be met with indifference rather than outrage.
  • The piece suggests ignoring attention-seeking behavior through provocative comments is more effective than amplifying offense.
Sep 07, 05:42 PMRead on Substack →

Healthy Pumpkin Cinnamon Roll Bars

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Healthy pumpkin cinnamon roll bars combine fall flavors with nutritional benefits: 6g protein and 3g fiber per bar.
  • Recipe uses gluten-free oats, refined sugar-free sweeteners, and optional dairy-free substitutions for broad dietary accommodation.
  • Three-component construction features oat base, date-cinnamon swirl, and cream cheese frosting all blended together.
Sep 07, 04:59 PMRead on Substack →

Is Islam compatible with the West?

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Winston Marshall addresses the enduring question of Islam's compatibility with the West 25 years after 9/11 with live debate.
  • Debate participants include Maajid Nawaz and Raymond Ibrahim representing sharply different perspectives on the topic.
  • Event interrogates definitions of 'Islam,' 'the West,' and 'compatible' rather than reducing the question to slogans or social media clips.
Sep 07, 12:01 PMRead on Substack →

The Church That Survived Ground ZeroThe Sanctuary America Still Needs

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • St. Paul's Chapel's miraculous survival at Ground Zero symbolizes need for spiritual and transcendent meaning beyond material security.
  • Author argues civilizations cannot withstand tragedy through material or technological responses alone; they require faith and meaning.
  • Twenty-five years after 9/11, the essay reflects on how modern Western society's reliance on financial prosperity and technology fails to address deep existential needs.
Sep 07, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Who Goes to Heaven?

Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
  • Study of near-death experiences shows 80% are positive (white light, peace) and 20% negative (hell-like visions), suggesting religious teachings may have empirical foundation.
  • Paradoxically, some death-row murderers report positive NDEs while devout church members report negative ones, challenging conventional Christian doctrine about salvation criteria.
  • Author questions whether traditional belief formulas (believe in God/Jesus, repent) fully determine heaven/hell outcomes based on inconsistencies in NDE data.
Sep 06, 07:26 PMRead on Substack →

Amazon is Polluted

Ted Gioia
  • Amazon's marketplace is degraded by counterfeit goods and low-quality sellers, despite the company's early promise of unlimited inventory.
  • Author's early Amazon investment (1997 at $0.11 post-split) would have yielded massive returns if held longer, illustrating the cost of premature selling.
  • Amazon's platform quality decline reflects the broader challenge of maintaining marketplace integrity at scale.
Sep 06, 02:19 PMRead on Substack →

Roasted Mustard Chicken with Boulangère Potatoes & Tarragon Jus: a recipe

Notorious Foodie
  • One-pan roasted mustard chicken with boulangère potatoes minimizes kitchen effort while building complex flavors through integrated cooking.
  • Potatoes release starch into the stock beneath the chicken, naturally thickening juices that become the base for a tarragon jus.
  • Quality ingredients—particularly free-range chicken—compensate for minimal technique requirements in this straightforward roast dinner approach.
Sep 06, 12:01 PMRead on Substack →

AI · 7

How to Use GPT-6 Astra, the OpenAI Model Jensen Huang Called AGI 🤖

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra matched Claude Fable 5's coding performance at less than half the cost per task, directly challenging Anthropic's market dominance.
  • Jensen Huang's AGI claims lack credibility and faced immediate pushback from researchers and analysts within hours.
  • Cost efficiency on coding tasks represents the meaningful metric for evaluating Astra's market impact over AGI proclamations.
Sep 08, 05:20 AMRead on Substack →

What Is Artificial General Intelligence?

John Aziz
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claimed OpenAI's GPT 6 Astra represents artificial general intelligence, but has significant financial incentives to hype AGI.
  • Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus critiqued Huang's claim as lacking evidence, definitions, or scientific rigor for such a major pronouncement.
  • The article examines definitional disputes around AGI and questions whether corporate leaders can credibly claim scientific breakthroughs.
Sep 07, 04:59 PMRead on Substack →

You keep reopening the same decision at midnight because checking it costs a weekend you don't have. GPT-6 Astra i…

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model reduces the investigation cost of significant life decisions by automating complex research and task completion.
  • Lower barrier to exploring alternative choices—cities, careers, services, ideas—increases practical autonomy and life richness.
  • When investigation becomes cheap, previously unaffordable possibilities transform from theoretical to actionable choices.
Sep 07, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

AI Is Creating More Jobs Than It Is Destroying

John Aziz
  • AI has created approximately 1 million jobs in America, far exceeding roughly 200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.
  • Historical technology adoption shows new industries and demands emerge to offset job destruction, with internet-era jobs exceeding those displaced by digitalization.
  • Mass automation increases individual productivity dramatically—one person with 50 robots can perform vastly more work—enabling new sectors and products to be created.
Sep 06, 05:59 PMRead on Substack →

Sad to see Jensen Huang claim that AGI has arrived, with no evidence and no definitions

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Jensen Huang's claim that AGI has arrived lacks evidence and definitions, representing an attempt to settle a scientific question through corporate assertion.
  • By conventional AGI definitions (autoformalization, reliable coding, and eight other benchmarks), Astra falls short and performs comparably to competitors like Claude 3.5.
  • Declaring victory without rigorous measurement undermines the credibility of the AGI debate and muddies legitimate scientific discourse.
Sep 06, 05:43 PMRead on Substack →

Executive Briefing: How to Check Work You Didn't Watch Get Made

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • Self-directed AI agents now complete complex multi-day tasks with minimal human oversight, shifting work from execution management to goal-setting and result validation.
  • Middle-management layers in organizations become obsolete as agents handle hundreds of intermediate decisions autonomously, compressing organizational structure.
  • Users bear legal liability for agent decisions made on their behalf, with existing delegated authority law now applying to AI systems.
  • The skill of checking unseen work—validating agent outputs before delivery—becomes the critical remaining human function.
Sep 06, 10:03 AMRead on Substack →

33 questions executives ask about AI

Khe Hy
  • OpenAI launched Astra AI system, prompting renewed executive questions about AI implementation, trust, and deployment strategies.
  • AI consultancies compile common executive concerns: from capability assessment to security and ROI measurement for AI initiatives.
  • Vertical AI software (demonstrated by Harvey in legal tech) is emerging as a viable business model built on open-source model foundations.
  • Key distinctions between ChatGPT Work, local vs. cloud deployment, and virtual machine architectures shape enterprise AI adoption decisions.
Sep 06, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 7

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • US markets slightly lower as oil moves higher; S&P down 25bp with 10-year yield at 4.80 and dollar down 24bp.
  • European and Asian markets showing mixed performance with Japan down 1.6% and China up 20bp while AfD plots path to power in Germany.
  • China export growth rebounding while US-Canada trade war heats up and Houthis continue attacks on energy sites and Saudi cities.
Sep 08, 04:57 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Opening calls are firmer across agricultural markets after a three-day weekend, with Matif wheat up 3 euros but cautiously positioned.
  • Crude oil and yen weakness provide underlying support while diesel prices hit record highs for the season amid trade war concerns.
  • Hedge funds are increasing gasoline bets and Indian vegetable oil imports are surging as commodity markets navigate broader trade tensions.
Sep 07, 06:48 PMRead on Substack →

The Silver Turnstile Illusion: Tracking the 330 Million Invisible Ounces that Prevent Delivery Failure

Craig Tindale
  • Silver traded at $66.15/oz in August 2026 after reaching $121.64 in January, representing extreme volatility in the metal's trading.
  • CME Group raised silver futures margins multiple times (9% to 15% to 18%) during the volatile rally, attempting to manage systemic risk.
  • The article explores the mechanics of the 330 million 'invisible ounces' that prevented delivery failures during the 2025-2026 price squeeze.
Sep 07, 06:22 PMRead on Substack →

NVIDIA, the Circle at Work

Cape Fear Advisors
  • NVIDIA equity stakes in customers function as high-return financing mechanisms, with placements returning nearly 10x their size at published margins.
  • The Economist and Atlas newsletter both raised concerns about circular arrangements in NVIDIA's lending practices compared to 1990s telecom equipment bubble.
  • Analysis explores the sizing and mechanics of NVIDIA's investment circle with customers, a topic largely unexamined in mainstream coverage.
Sep 07, 01:47 PMRead on Substack →

I’ll Be Live at 12 PM Today for Markets 101

Garrett Baldwin
  • Live educational series on markets 101 covers the monetary system and how money drives asset prices.
  • Session explains how stocks can rally while economy weakens and introduces tools for reading liquidity-driven market fragility.
  • Focus on Fed policy, borrowing costs, and forced selling mechanics as drivers of portfolio impact.
Sep 07, 08:58 AMRead on Substack →

So-Called “Bessent Put”

AP Research
  • S&P 500 finished slightly higher despite Thursday gains being partly reversed Friday after stronger-than-expected payroll data sparked a hawkish repricing.
  • AI semiconductor weakness persisted with Broadcom, Cisco, Samsung, and Nvidia declining despite strong fundamentals, signaling caution on fourth-quarter guidance.
  • Energy led market performance as crude oil gained on US-Iran military conflict, while Fed guidance hinges on upcoming CPI data to determine rate trajectory.
Sep 07, 02:39 AMRead on Substack →

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

Capitalist-Letters
  • Exceptional companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have experienced severe 20%+ drawdowns multiple times before becoming massive value creators.
  • Historical mega-winners (Coca-Cola, American Express, McDonald's) suffered 69-73% declines that became incredible buying opportunities in hindsight.
  • Buffett's greatest wealth generation came from buying quality companies during crashes (Coca-Cola post-1987, AmEx post-1990, Apple at 10x P/E in 2016).
  • Key skill is distinguishing truly exceptional businesses that will recover from temporary headwinds versus those with structural problems.
Sep 06, 08:35 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 4

September Inside Ranges

Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
  • September triggered annual S&P 500 ranges at 7622-7644 area with structural support holding above the zone.
  • Current levels stalled at all-time high zone, leaving market in the middle; downside calculation of 33-34 points targets 7691 and risks 7620s-7640s.
  • Multiple timeframe reversals including 3-bar bull flags on 8D-12D intervals approaching flip dates September 21st present additional risk.
Sep 07, 04:18 PMRead on Substack →

Four Patterns I’ve Seen After Six Years Working With 100 Traders — and Why None of Them Are Really About Trading

Sara
  • After working with 100+ traders across different institutions, recurring psychological patterns emerge that transcend trading itself.
  • Trading doesn't create performance problems—it reveals deeper personal issues like relationship trauma, financial anxiety, and unmet self-expectations.
  • Understanding trader psychology requires looking beyond market mechanics to the foundational life experiences shaping decision-making.
Sep 07, 10:59 AMRead on Substack →

Autumn Hedging Plans

BUSHY™ and Acorn Weekly
  • Autumn seasonally presents elevated risk with capital markets windows and auditing calendars forcing issuers into choppy trading periods.
  • Risk management and hedging strategies are essential ahead of fall 2026 challenges including Fed meetings, mid-terms, and the Anthropic IPO.
  • BUSHY portfolio review includes single-stock ideas, thematic baskets, FX, credit, and commodity positioning for navigating seasonal volatility.
Sep 07, 06:24 AMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/8

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Market analysis covering SPY, QQQ, and GLD setups for the week of 9/8, accounting for shortened holiday session and futures trading Sunday-Tuesday.
  • Author identifies excellent trade setups on both sides of the tape across equities and commodities.
  • Comprehensive trading plan requires review of prior weekly analysis and Discord community access for full strategy details.
Sep 06, 12:31 PMRead on Substack →

Energy · 3

Two Dollars a Gallon

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • POTUS promises oil prices as low as $2-3 per gallon if America wins war against Iran, conflating crude oil with gasoline prices.
  • Six months into Operation Epic Fury, none of its stated objectives have been achieved and Iran emerges stronger while regional conflict spreads.
  • Brent crude sits at $97 (six-week high) and diesel fuel hit record $5.85/gallon (up from $3.71 year-ago), contradicting promises of imminent victory and cheap fuel.
  • Market pricing and dollar strength fail to align with claims of strong American position, suggesting disconnect between political messaging and economic reality.
Sep 08, 01:34 AMRead on Substack →

The 1/1000 Year El Niño Almanac: 2026–2027 Chokepoints

Craig Tindale
  • Eastern Pacific ocean temperatures have surged 36.5% above pre-industrial levels, shattering a 1,000-year baseline with over 90% probability of a very strong El NiĂąo event.
  • Global supply chains, agricultural inventories, and power grids now face millennium-grade physical extremes that exceed their engineered maximum tolerances.
  • This El NiĂąo event is unprecedented in human civilization history and existing climate records offer limited guidance for predicting economic and infrastructure impacts.
Sep 07, 12:04 AMRead on Substack →

Episode 9: The Great Value Migration in Oil

The Commodity Compass
  • Oil price shock has materialized not in crude futures (Brent at $96) but in refined petroleum products, with European diesel trading at $191/barrel reflecting downstream scarcity.
  • Physical Brent crude peaked at $146/barrel in April 2026, with additional freight and differentials pushing effective prices near $160 for some Asian buyers.
  • A 'Great Value Migration' has shifted scarcity value and margin capture from crude production into refining, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel.
Sep 06, 07:56 PMRead on Substack →

Tech · 3

The Dawn of Self-Powered Neural Dynamical Systems?

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • A 2026 Peking University phase-change memristor chip combined with triboelectric nanogenerators enables self-powered neural computation.
  • The innovation addresses energy efficiency challenges in an era of declining EROEI by enabling distributed, ambient-energy-driven edge intelligence.
  • Self-powered neuromorphic hardware could help complex systems sustain themselves with minimal external inputs, supporting system resilience.
Sep 07, 07:15 PMRead on Substack →

Revolut won the US Bank Charter that Wise couldn’t 🏦🇺🇸; Anthropic’s $65B billing problem and Stripe’s $7B answe…

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Revolut secured conditional U.S. bank charter while Wise's application was rejected, signaling regulatory preference for certain fintech business models.
  • Anthropic's explosive revenue growth (9B to 65B annualized in 7 months) necessitates custom in-house payments infrastructure unsuitable for standard billing platforms.
  • Stripe's $7B+ counter-move via OpenRouter reflects competition for control over AI metering infrastructure and payment processing in the emerging AI economy.
Sep 07, 04:39 AMRead on Substack →

PayPal rejected Stripe at $60.50. Now it trades at $53 😬📉; Grok Bot makes SpaceXAI an agentic payments player & …

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • PayPal rejected Stripe at $60.50 valuation; Stripe now trades at $53, highlighting failed M&A strategy.
  • Grok Bot positions SpaceX/AI as an agentic payments player, while Anthropic open-sourced Claude Commerce Agents as a competitor to OpenAI's abandoned checkout approach.
  • AI agents are reshaping fintech and commerce infrastructure with persistent operating systems and merchant-side deployment models.
Sep 06, 02:33 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 2

2 Years Of Testosterone Injections Bought These 1,007 Men +40 Just 2.5 Points Out Of 30 (The 5-Number Scoreboard T…

Nobody Talks About This
  • A 2-year Australian study of 1,007 men found testosterone injections added only 2.5 points out of 30 to sexual function scores when combined with lifestyle changes.
  • Sexual function improvements tracked with age and waist circumference at baseline, not with testosterone levels.
  • The study combined testosterone therapy with a comprehensive lifestyle program including weekly meetings, food logging, and activity guidelines.
Sep 08, 05:09 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Winston Marshall

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Winston Marshall is recording with YouTuber Wesley Winter, who has faced physical confrontations while filming UK and European protests.
  • Winter is pursuing legal action following an assault by far-left activists during recent French protests.
  • The discussion will cover recent protest activity and safety concerns for independent journalists and commentators documenting civil unrest.
Sep 07, 05:35 PMRead on Substack →

Crypto · 1

Bitcoin’s Liquidity Paradoxes

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Liquidity circulates through two distinct channels—financial economy and real economy—with shifts between them affecting asset prices differently.
  • Treasury QE increasingly directs liquidity into the real economy rather than through the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, changing transmission mechanisms.
  • Bitcoin exhibits price dynamics more consistent with a real asset than a purely financial instrument when compared against Treasury QE and global liquidity flows.
Sep 06, 06:33 AMRead on Substack →