★ Priority · 13
How American Politics Became a Tower of Babel
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Conservative influencer Candace Owens attracts young audiences through unapologetic combative rhetoric and conspiracy theories.
- Right-wing media ecosystem provides platforms for figures promoting conspiracy narratives about Jews, Disney, and historical events.
- Young attendees at conservative summits are drawn to personalities willing to offend and challenge mainstream narratives.
Lessons in life will be repeated until they are learned
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Companies beating EPS estimates underperform in tech/TMT (-0.76%) but outperform in other sectors (+1.72% median).
- Earnings provided clarity on demand but investors seek more detail on shareholder value creation, particularly for Mag 7 stocks.
- Broadening trend continues; if not for AI names, S&P would have been green in October despite 406 names closing positive Thursday.
I Interviewed Haley Stevens at 11 PM on Her Fiancé’s Couch. Here’s Why She Broke with Abdul El-Sayed.
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Congresswoman Haley Stevens withdrew support from Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed days before the election in Michigan.
- Stevens cited El-Sayed's refusal to condemn Iran's IRGC and evasion on Israel-Iran threat comparison, plus controversial PAC ads, as breaking points.
- Interview conducted late September reveals internal party fracture on foreign policy in pivotal swing-state race.
ARE TIPS SAYING TLT IS A BUY?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Current real yields at 2.6% appear historically attractive, but TIPS data only exists since 1997 during a falling yield environment.
- Market-based real yields derived from TIPS may not accurately reflect true investment value across different economic cycles.
- TIP ETF share price performance does not confirm the inflation-hedge promise despite seemingly attractive real yield levels.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- BLDR stock up nearly 30% since AI Slop of Hope II Trades publication, with November $60 calls up 5x.
- Le Shrub booked profits on both the stock and remaining call options.
- Position highlights the importance of profit-taking throughout a trade lifecycle.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Iran's Supreme Leader granted government authority for diplomatic talks, reducing geopolitical tension and supporting oil price pressure below $100.
- Oil market positioning shows speculators heavily rinsed above $100 Brent, with financial markets hollowed out.
- ORCL filing for stock offering amid broader market movements on first day of November.
OCTOBER REVIEW
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Russell Clark's thesis on upside yield surprises is challenged by October's reversal, with 30-year Treasury and JGB yields falling back to 200-day moving averages.
- Dollar strength may be ending despite year-long DXY appreciation, contradicting expectations for further weakness.
- Equities face headwinds from offsetting benefits of rising revenue growth against rising costs and yields in an inflationary environment.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Nasdaq bounced weakly from 200-day moving average while Brent crude fell 5% since Friday, suggesting potential US military action against Iran.
- Chinese equities rallied on state intervention support despite ongoing structural weakness in markets.
- QURE received FDA priority review acceptance for biologics license application with May 1, 2027 PDUFA date; stock surged 20% then retreated to +5%.
Haley Stevens’ Election Eve Surprise. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed after El-Sayed refused to condemn a PAC ad blaming Israel for rising US grocery costs.
- Stevens' last-minute endorsement on election eve reveals deep fissures in Democratic coalition that run counter to normal party allegiances.
- Article argues Stevens represents principled political choice rather than betrayal, reflecting broader tensions within Democratic base over Israel-Palestine issues.
CAPITULATION.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- October saw historic sector rotation with equal-weight S&P outperforming Nasdaq by the largest margin since 2002, and value significantly outperforming growth for the first time in 34 years.
- Tech stocks experienced extreme volatility with XLK, QQQ, and SMH posting their worst months in years as the market showed signs of classic capitulation sequencing.
- Author identifies core risk as top chart to watch with no clear bottom yet formed; awaiting further setup before positioning for the opportunity phase.
Californication
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Tyler Cowen commissioned an AI audit of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman's research, claiming to find 2,035 alleged problems across 138 papers with 147 significant enough to change headline results.
- Zucman responded with outrage, calling the AI audit a grotesque misuse of technology and politically timed attack, while Furman argued many alleged errors were methodological disagreements rather than true errors.
- The debate highlights how AI audits could revise past economic research and policy implications, with potential significant shifts in academic and policy influence.
Re-release: Pay Attention to Our Privates
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- A significant high-yield fund drawdown signals the beginning of an incipient credit event, driven by Federal Reserve inattention to available market data.
- The post re-releases previously pulled analysis about private credit markets and reveals connections to Tier1 Alpha Asset Management's investment strategy.
- Active managers continue to struggle with situational awareness, missing signals beyond obvious headline narratives in credit markets.
if it feels good you’re too late
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Psychological motivation for gambling (and investing) is the thrill of the chase, not the actual wins, as illustrated by Norm MacDonald's gambling memoir.
- Market timing feels good only when you're already too late, suggesting contrarian positioning requires psychological resilience against comfort.
- Volatility scaling geometry provides a framework for understanding the temporal dynamics of market sentiment and risk-taking behavior.
Politics · 22
Divided Government Is Better Than One-Party Control
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Americans have consistently voted for divided government over the past 18 years, breaking unified party control within one to two election cycles.
- Voters appear to distrust both Democrats and Republicans with exclusive control, suggesting a structural preference for checks and balances.
- If current polling holds, 2027 may bring another divided government as Americans cycle through single-party dominance repeatedly.
Iran: two weeks of bombing to achieve what?
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US bombing campaign against Iran reportedly scheduled to begin November 5th and potentially last two weeks, with preliminary strikes already underway on Qeshm Island.
- Washington and Jerusalem lack clear strategy articulating what Iran should do when bombing stops and why Tehran would prefer that outcome to continued response.
- Sustained 'mowing the grass' strategy requires committing American resources every six months indefinitely, as Iran adapts between bombing cycles without political concessions.
We Won
Hypernormal Times
- Trump claims US won an undeclared war with Iran, with recent limited strikes on Qeshm Island marking latest escalation.
- Oil market rallied sharply on perception of reduced war risk; Brent crude fell 8% as Iran signaled openness to negotiations.
- US conducting secretive campaign of strikes while publicly downplaying intentions to resume major combat operations.
Midterms. Finally!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- POTUS 47's approval rating sits at ~30%, a record-low level as midterms approach.
- Republican political ads avoid major policy issues like tariffs, deficits, disease, and trade war impacts.
- Defense Secretary Hegseth's handling of alleged classified leaks reveals confusion about basic facts regarding military personnel.
Will Abdul El-Sayed Win In Michigan?
John Aziz
- Michigan Senate race features Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 5 points in current polling.
- Democratic primary opponent Haley Stevens unexpectedly endorsed Republican Rogers despite earlier pledge to support El-Sayed.
- Race outcome hinges on Arab-American voter turnout and the impact of recent endorsement flip.
What Will Democrats Learn in Victory?
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democrats are positioned for strong midterm performance with Trump's approval matching George W. Bush's 2006 level before Republican losses.
- Voter dissatisfaction centers on foreign policy (Iran war) and domestic economy, particularly high gas prices and cost of living.
- Democratic victory margins depend on avoiding major polling errors that could swing results.
‘Twas the Night Before Midterms
Scott Galloway
- Independent media outlet hosting week of free livestreams covering midterm election with real-time analysis and commentary.
- Programming includes Raging Moderates and Raging Perspective shows with multiple hosts across five consecutive days.
- Initiative reaffirms commitment to providing unfettered access to high-quality news and analysis during election season.
The local reporter who took the government to court twice
The Substack Post
- Laura Belin, Des Moines-based reporter and part of Iowa Writers Collaborative, pursues accountability journalism ahead of close midterm elections.
- Belin's reporting spans election security, early voting trends, and live radio, demonstrating independent local news persistence.
- Profile highlights the resurgence of regional reporting as a counterweight to national media consolidation.
We Cure Them. They Hurt Us.
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Author recounts anecdote of Palestinian mother whose child was healed in Israeli hospital expressing hope her son becomes a martyr to kill Jews.
- Essay highlights moral dissonance between Israeli medical care and stated intent of patient's family to commit violence.
- Reflects broader geopolitical conflict through intimate narrative lens.
The Method to Trump’s Foreign Policy Madness
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- Historian Niall Ferguson argues apparent contradictions in U.S. foreign policy under Cold War II framing mask coherent strategy despite inconsistent ally treatment.
- Editor's critique: if China, Russia, North Korea, Iran form an Axis, why do Democratic allies oppose Iron Dome aid to Israel while voting for Ukraine weapons?
- Ferguson examines tensions between stated Axis doctrine and messy geopolitical reality (Turkey in NATO but Russian-aligned, NATO allies importing Russian gas, etc.).
“They Nearly Killed Me!” The Truth About Converting from Islam to Christianity in Britain
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Nissar Hussain, a convert from Islam to Christianity, endured nearly two decades of brutal attacks and death threats in Britain.
- Police allegedly failed to protect Hussain and his family despite documented persecution and intimidation.
- The case raises questions about institutional responses to religious conversion and minority protection in the UK.
Les Enfants Terribles
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- European unrest spreading across multiple countries echoes 1848 revolutionary patterns following Paris events.
- Western European elites form closed, self-referential networks from same schools and institutions with insular worldview.
- Elite order built on light immigration and multicultural accommodation is brittle and collapses when external pressures intrude.
What America Can Learn From Brazil’s Election
The Prof G Pod
- Brazil's leftist President Lula won reelection against initial polls showing him trailing Bolsonaro's son by three weeks before the runoff.
- Reporter Laura Janer interviews Brian Winter, editor-in-chief, from São Paulo about lessons from Brazil's election for America.
- The analysis explores how an aging incumbent defied expectations in a polarized political environment.
Blacklion Daily Den Monday, November 2, 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Friday market action was brutal with below-average overnight futures volume bouncing this morning; resolution may not come until Wednesday post-midterms.
- Midterm elections historically favor opposition party, but Trump's disapproval from his own right flank combined with Democratic weakness could defy normal patterns.
- Polling this cycle may underestimate Republican turnout by focusing on Trump's poor approval rather than voter preference versus Democratic alternatives.
it starts at the voting booth
Nico from AiQ
- Federal and state spending represents 34% of US economic activity, making winning elections the ultimate political prize.
- Government costs force families and businesses to spend more daily, creating voter discontent heading into elections.
- Author warns political conditions can worsen significantly, with countries risking deterioration similar to UK, Brazil, or Argentina trajectories.
Shotguns at the Door: Why Tomorrow’s Polls Could Be Wrong
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Democrats lead generic ballot by 9 points but party panic over Haley Stevens' endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers suggests internal doubts about polling accuracy.
- Door-to-door canvassers report encountering hostile MAGA voters with shotguns and dogs, representing shy voters who view pollsters as Democratic agents and refuse phone surveys.
- Hostile Trump voters are systematically undercounted in traditional polling, potentially understating Republican support in tomorrow's midterm elections.
The Missionaries
Craig Tindale
- Australian Greens under new leader David Shoebridge treat political opinions as moral absolutes and condemn disagreement, using guilt as a disciplinary tool ('silence is complicity').
- The party uses moral framing and personal condemnation to enforce conformity on issues like Gaza, creating a cult-like dynamic that penalizes dissent.
- Shoebridge's rhetoric conflates political disagreement with moral failure, exemplifying how ideological movements can weaponize shame to maintain party discipline.
The Quiet Exodus
Jonathan Rosen from House of Rosen
- Jewish emigration from Western Europe is accelerating: French aliyah roughly doubled from 2023 to 2024 and rose another 45% in 2025 to ~3,300-3,360.
- Over 36,000 French Jews have moved to Israel in the past decade, with approximately 20,000 opening aliyah files since October 7th.
- Surveys show roughly half of French Jews have considered leaving, with higher percentages among younger respondents citing safety concerns.
- Anti-Semitic incidents and targeting of Jewish shops and synagogues during protests are driving the exodus across France and UK.
Polygamy Is Never Just a Private Arrangement
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Polygamy systems historically enabled severe double standards where women faced severe punishment for infidelity while men faced none.
- Even in theoretically equal modern polygamous arrangements, systemic power imbalances and social structures typically disadvantage women.
- Polygamy is fundamentally a political and social arrangement with consequences beyond individual consent, not merely a private matter between adults.
4 local results Chicagoans should be watching on election night
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago will hold its first fully elected school board election with 20 district seats plus citywide presidency, potentially shifting control away from Mayor Johnson and the Chicago Teachers Union.
- The article highlights four key local races that directly impact Chicagoans' lives, with the school board election drawing significant outside spending and special interest group involvement.
- Author will provide live election night analysis on Fox32 Chicago starting at 6 p.m. CT on Election Day.
RFK Measles Again
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Pennsylvania is experiencing a measles outbreak with deaths since September, reversing decades of eradication achieved before recent public health policy shifts.
- The RFK Jr.-Trump-Bhattacharya-Oz alignment is linked to disruptions in America's public health infrastructure and disease control efforts.
- Historical public health interventions show that addressing epidemics requires addressing root causes like education, employment, and living conditions, not just treating individual cases.
Iran declares Britain’s Royal Navy and RAF “terrorist organisations”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Iran formally designated Britain's Royal Navy and RAF as terrorist organizations and MI6 as a hostile group in retaliation for British designations of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
- The accusation is particularly brazen given Iran's decades-long history of sponsoring terrorism, arming proxies, and destabilizing regional conflicts.
- British authorities are simultaneously handling an alleged Iranian intelligence operation targeting RAF Fairford, a US Air Force base, indicating active espionage operations.
Macro · 18
Update: Improvement to GMM
Global Macro Method
- Global Macro Method connects economic developments with market pricing to identify actionable trades.
- Research hub on Substack will feature macro deep dives and trade ideas, while Discord becomes the community forum for discussion and analysis.
- New dedicated models section on the GMM website will help readers translate research insights into practical trading tools.
The gold plans can lower the dollar, but the Basel rules will still keep bank credit away from factories
Craig Tindale
- Basel capital rules assign 0% risk weight to gold and government bonds but 100% to factory loans, discouraging manufacturing investment.
- US industrial decline stems from two structural forces: foreign reserve demand for Treasuries keeping the dollar strong, and Basel rules raising credit costs for factories.
- Gold-backed currency plans alone cannot restore factory investment without simultaneous reform of capital requirement rules that penalize productive lending.
Decarbonisation: The Fantasy upon which Net Zero is built.
Craig Tindale
- Net zero pathway relies on fictional 'backstop' technologies (carbon capture machines) without assessing material availability constraints.
- Decarbonization models use economic sleight-of-hand (Nordhaus's 'if it exists' assumption) to skip critical questions about copper, steel, and resource sufficiency.
- Australia's net zero by 2050 target built on unsustainable foundation that ignores physical limits of global material supply.
WHAT’S REALLY HOLDING UP THE US DOLLAR
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- US dollar resilience unexpectedly strong despite record trade deficits, defying traditional economic expectations.
- Foreign Direct Investment inflows, including SoftBank's $100 billion promise, may be offsetting trade deficit pressure on currency.
- Manufacturing renaissance announcements from foreign investors could be providing dollar support through capital flows.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry launched November 2026 Thought Pad chat for curating market stories, charts, and analysis throughout the month.
- Format mirrors internal analyst communications, preserving market observations and investment theses for Cassandra Unchained subscribers.
- Chat is read-only; Burry will post unilaterally without discussion.
Zombie Apocalypse
The Credit Strategist
- Low interest rates enabled zombie companies and venture unicorns to accumulate massive leverage; this era ended in 2022 as rates rose.
- Private equity and early-stage companies borrowed trillions despite weak fundamentals; megacap tech later joined the debt binge for AI buildout.
- Companies now face an expensive debt refinancing crisis as revenue growth lags capital spending requirements by years.
It Will Die From Strength
Santiago Capital Research
- Santiago Capital argues the dollar's strength, not weakness, ensures its longevity despite widespread BRICS-era predictions of its demise.
- Gold and dollars are complementary rather than mortal enemies; gold should anchor portfolios but not because dollars fail.
- Smart investors misunderstand why the dollar persists despite flaws—strength itself paradoxically guarantees survival.
Trillions and Trillions
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- US hyper-scaler capital expenditure is projected to approach $1 trillion in 2026 and may rise to $1.75 trillion by 2027.
- History shows large capital-spending booms often result in overcapacity, margin compression, and financial stress rather than proportionate returns.
- The AI investment cycle coincides with an unprecedented global debt refinancing cycle, creating potential liquidity constraints on the boom.
Warsh and Bessent Are Building a New Treasury-Fed Accord to Revalue America’s Gold
Craig Tindale
- US hired Treasury and Fed officials who have written plans to shrink debt by revaluing gold and holding savers' returns below inflation.
- First half of article details who was hired and Treasury-Fed positions on gold certificates and foreign holders; second half (paid only) covers step-by-step implementation plans and 1961-62 precedent.
Weekly Macro Note: Plateau Surfing & Updating our 'Powell's Valhalla' Framework
MacroEdge Research
- Global energy prices at critical cycle levels as Trump administration weighs comfort with higher prices amid geopolitical tightening.
- Global inventory drawdown accelerating into winter; TTF already pricing in tightening on expectation conflict resumes in 2-3 months.
- Macro crosscurrents warrant de-risking into year-end, particularly energy exposure, as geopolitical reality lags market pricing.
[Chart] - Macro Pulse Check
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- US PMI accelerating in 2026 and diverging from rest-of-world peak in April; pattern shows US initially decoupling before catching down to global slowdown.
- Global policy pivot from rate cuts to hikes/tightening signals growth slowdown risk in 2027; key downside risk is global growth scare.
- Mixed signals: level and direction look good near-term, but softening global ex-US divergence and policy tightening familiar precursor to slowdown.
Rebel Capitalist Weekly Report | Nov 1, 2026
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Oil +15% for October while 10-year Treasury yields fell 30bps; historic decoupling breaks most reliable macro relationship exactly as AI trade imploded.
- Alphabet worst day in public history (-$500B), Intel worst since 1974 oil shock, Nasdaq worst since June amid broader tech earnings rout.
- Macro setup being missed by mainstream: energy strength and rate decline decoupling signals broader shift in risk-on sentiment and sector leadership.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Fed policy uncertainty under Warsh creates a vacuum where market participants must infer reaction functions from data rather than forward guidance.
- AI capex funding concerns and a potential 'squeeze' are emerging as key market risks alongside persistent uncertainty over the Fed's next moves.
- The author uses Margin Call's 'music has stopped' analogy to capture the eerie silence in policy signals and the challenge of predicting what comes next.
A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger – Week Ending October 30, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Fed held rates amid hawkish dissents, but 10-year Treasury yield fell 7bps to 4.93% as mega-cap tech selloff triggered concerns over AI spending sustainability.
- S&P 500 fell 0.6% for its third straight weekly loss; Nasdaq dropped 2.1% as Alphabet and Intel experienced historic declines, pulling indexes below key moving averages.
- Small caps and commodities (WTI crude, Brent) held ground, but gold broke sharply lower (-2.9%), and VIX spiked to 21.41 amid renewed market volatility.
Walk in the Pines #419
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Weekly briefing curates charts, quotes, and reads on macro trends including China's overcapacity and self-driving electric mining trucks.
- Features podcast and video recommendations on productivity science, historical leadership, and the compute curve driving AI economics.
- Presents a diversified digest of macro-relevant content across foreign policy, technology, and financial markets for weekly market perspective.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- COMEX gold inventory down 20.87% in six months while gold ETFs now hold more gold than Germany, signaling major portfolio rotation.
- China's gold imports surged 72% YoY through August, contrasting sharply with India's imports down 81%, suggesting geopolitical reallocation of reserves.
- CME physical gold cover ratio at 58% with US gold trade showing net outflow of -373.7T in 2026, indicating structural stress in gold markets.
- Speculative-grade debt maturity wall of ~$1.9tn and record 41% of Americans expecting worse finances within a year reflect deepening financial stress and equity-gold divergence.
China Weekly Wrap: The Fifth Plenum Edition
Panda Perspectives
- China's Fifth Plenum ended with demands for tighter discipline and more effective officials, coinciding with a US market correction ahead of the weekend.
- ICBC and PetroChina rallied strongly (9.05% and 12.65% respectively), while the CSI 300 fell below 4,000 as growth indices surrendered earlier gains.
- Chinese banks showed improving earnings with growing interest income and operating profit, though weaker fees and uneven investment gains partially offset gains.
Reaction Function
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Week ahead features major economic releases including ISM Manufacturing, NFP, and ADP, along with central bank reaction function analysis and the second busiest earnings week.
- Author will release updates on all FCI models on Tuesday and hosts a Substack live episode Wednesday at 11:30am to discuss findings in detail.
- Article previews both the economic data landscape and central bank divergences observed from last week's meetings.
Culture · 11
The Caviar Is Coming! A Tsar Nicoulai Café Heads to a New York Whole Foods, Caviar Russe Eyes Palm Beach
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Tsar Nicoulai caviar café expanding to New York Whole Foods location amid sustained caviar market demand.
- Caviar Russe targeting premium Palm Beach real estate, indicating high-end luxury food market remains robust.
- Caviar craze shows no signs of slowing despite skepticism about luxury goods trends.
From Saul Bellow to "Hitler Youth"
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Jewish students at New Trier High School have been labeled 'Hitler Youth' and 'Nazis' by community members for hosting a film discussion.
- The labeling is particularly disturbing given Jewish history and the persecution by the Nazi regime.
- Chicago's intellectual tradition includes voices like Shelby Steele addressing issues of institutional bias and ideological conformity.
Antisemitism on Campus
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Antisemitism on college campuses has surged following October 7, with protests turning to intimidation of Jewish students.
- Universities have abandoned principles by excusing harassment as political expression and ignoring persecution of Jewish communities.
- Special issue examines how antisemitism took root in higher education through essays and analysis from multiple scholars.
5 Late Night Treats That Are Secretly High Protein
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Article provides five late-night treat recipes designed to be high-protein while satisfying evening cravings.
- Treats are quick to prepare and help maintain protein intake goals without derailing fitness objectives.
- Practical resource for balancing dietary preferences with nutritional targets.
New Survey: Math Students Are Giving Up
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- New survey reveals mathematics students are increasingly giving up on the subject, signaling potential decline in a foundational scientific discipline.
- Author draws parallel to Valéry's post-WWI crisis thesis to argue that even rigorous fields like mathematics face existential fragility.
- Historical context—from Newton's alchemy to modern LLM training—illustrates how serious intellectual pursuits can persist despite civilizational uncertainty.
The Hidden Trauma Behind Britain’s Eleven Million Abortions
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Britain's 11 million abortions since 1967 have created widespread unacknowledged trauma among women who grieve their losses.
- Current culture celebrates abortion as freedom but provides no space for women to process grief and regret.
- Women sharing abortion regret stories face social disdain, suggesting cultural denial of psychological consequences.
Emerging Mania
Derek Wallis
- Author explores mania as a controlled tool for generating creative ideas and insights that wouldn't normally occur under baseline cognition.
- Recounts personal experience using elevated noradrenaline levels strategically in social settings while practicing restraint and later reassessment.
- Discusses the importance of writing and note-taking during manic states to capture valuable thoughts while filtering out noise from excessive brain activity.
- Emphasizes the value of managing extreme states responsibly and editing ideas after the manic episode passes to extract genuine insights.
Viral Kendall Jenner Brownie Cookie Dough Bars
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe combines chocolate chip cookies and fudgy brownies ('Slutty Brownies') into a single quick dessert using one bowl and simple ingredients.
- Uses healthier substitutes like oat flour, monk fruit sweetener, and natural nut butter to create a better-for-you version without sacrificing taste.
- Preparation is fast with clear layering method: cookie dough base pressed into pan, brownie batter poured on top, chocolate chips added for topping.
- Bakes at 350°F for 15-20 minutes with reported exceptional taste quality that masks the healthier ingredient composition.
Thanksgiving Menu pt 3: Mac n Cheese
Notorious Foodie
- Mac and cheese with a blend of four to five cheeses creates a rich, velvety sauce that clings to al dente pasta.
- Use freshly grated cheese and low-moisture mozzarella to achieve smooth melting and avoid anti-caking agents in pre-grated varieties.
- Cook pasta to al dente before adding to cheese sauce since it continues cooking in the pot and oven while absorbing the sauce.
Thai Curry Chicken Broth Bowls
Primal Gourmet
- Thai curry chicken thighs marinated in red curry paste, lime, ginger and garlic are seared then finished in the oven for tender results.
- Building the spicy aromatic broth in the same pan captures fond and concentrated flavors that develop during chicken searing.
- Technique and ingredient quality are critical to achieving the balance of comfort, satisfaction and ease in this dish.
Generational Arguments Are Bullshit
Mark Hasman
- Each generation blames the next for being soft or problematic, but these arguments often reflect nostalgic bias rather than objective generational differences.
- Psychologists identify the 'reminiscence bump' as a phenomenon where memories from teenage years feel especially vivid, biasing people into believing everything was better during their youth.
- Sports comparisons reveal that generational debates about GOAT status rarely result in changed minds; people typically believe the best athlete is whoever dominated when they were young.
Energy · 7
China’s fuel cell breakthrough
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Beijing Institute of Technology developed new proton-exchange membrane fuel cell design quadrupling power output.
- Breakthrough enables hydrogen expansion from transport into heavy industry and aerospace applications.
- Development strengthens China's hydrogen infrastructure ambitions outlined in 15th five-year plan with wide-ranging negentropic implications.
Main Takeaways from First Day of ADIPEC 26 in Abu Dhabi
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- ADIPEC 26 in Abu Dhabi focusing on energy security, resilience, and diversification with heavy emphasis on AI integration.
- Energy security paradigm shifting from production-centric to delivery-centric framework.
- Conference highlighting intersection of energy policy and artificial intelligence applications in the sector.
METC Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
The Coal Trader
- Ramaco Resources (METC) reports Q3 2026 earnings tomorrow with consensus expectations of $140.4M revenue and -$0.24 EPS, materially lower than Q2 due to weak metallurgical coal markets.
- MSHA-reported production shows sequential decline, reflecting high diesel prices pressuring underground miners.
- Author's model projects margins slightly better than consensus, positioning the stock for potential upside if results meet internal forecasts.
O Germany
Irina Slav on energy
- Germany missed its EU gas storage target by nearly 20%, with storage at only 61% versus the required 80% by November 1st.
- German industrial sector has lost almost half a million jobs since 2019, with Volkswagen reporting a €5.8 billion quarterly loss.
- VW announced a salary freeze until 2030 while engineering workers prepare for strikes demanding higher wages.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- WTI crude oil prices fell 4% as Iran-Qatar diplomatic talks continued for three days without US participation.
- Iran's draft proposal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 2 days, but negotiations remain unresolved.
- WTI key resistance at 110.50 with critical support at 98.00; Brent at 118.00 resistance and 106.00 support.
Nigeria's Destroyed Refineries, Blackouts, and a Steel Mill That Never Made Steel
Yaw from Yaw's Brief: Guns, Trade, Cobalt & Africa Beyond Colonialism
- Nigeria pumped 1.9M barrels per day in 1992 but refinery failures left citizens waiting in long lines for petrol despite massive oil production.
- Official gasoline price was heavily subsidized at 70 kobo per liter (4 cents), creating massive arbitrage and black market incentives.
- Post-1992 privatization wave of refineries failed, suggesting state asset sales without proper oversight or management created infrastructure collapse rather than efficiency.
Bottleneck in the Energy Value Chain With 10x Potential Upside
Bison Insights
- Small energy value chain provider controls one of only two major new dedicated supply sources expected by end of decade, with limited future supply additions planned.
- Demand has outpaced supply in this sector, driving prices sharply higher with multi-year development timelines limiting response capacity.
- Company's growth project has compelling economics with elevated prices and constrained supply; CEO has track record of successful similar projects and is largest shareholder.
- Four scenario analysis (bear, base, bull, home run) models potential outcomes based on financing terms, dilution, and commodity price dynamics.
AI · 6
The Super-Agent Blueprint: Building an Always-On, Production-Grade AI Agent 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Current AI agents fail because the system architecture around the model is weak, not the model itself.
- Super-agents maintain continuous memory across channels, run parallel tasks, and act without prompting—overcoming human attention bandwidth limits of 3-5 concurrent sessions.
- DeepSeek has published a blueprint for production-grade always-on AI agents that solve the persistent session-isolation problem limiting agent productivity.
YWR: AI’s 2 Year Valley of Death
PAIDErik@YWR
- Massive datacenter construction wave underway with uncertain enterprise AI revenue prospects by 2028 when leases come due.
- Anthropic S-1 filing and Oracle Investor Day provided modest positive signals for AI demand sustainability.
- Key uncertainty: whether actual enterprise AI revenues will materialize to support the unprecedented infrastructure investment.
Anthropic, Amended: The Bridge and the Far Bank
Cape Fear Advisors
- Anthropic's amended registration statement reveals Q3 2026 revenue of $16.956 billion, matching prior analytical estimates within $14M margin of error.
- Filing quantifies short-term compute purchases when demand exceeds long-term capacity and identifies future compute reliant on third-party financing and approvals.
- Analysis exposes timing risk: revenue growth slowed Q3 vs. Q2, signaling potential gaps between retiring compute capacity and replacement lines arriving.
After the Click: Who Gets Paid in the New Internet Era 💸
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Alphabet and Reddit Q3 earnings wiped $500B in market value as AI answers reduce traffic to traditional websites.
- New internet value chain emerging where AI-native platforms capture monetization formerly going to publishers and advertisers.
- Five rules for post-click economy: founders and investors must adapt playbooks as traffic-dependent business models face structural disruption.
The AI Trade Gets tested
Hypernormal Times
- Major AI companies face capital crunch: Anthropic filing for $1.5-2tn IPO, Meta raising $95bn, and Broadcom securing $63bn financing amid $5tn capex demands.
- Free cash flow, not revenue growth, has become the key metric for AI trade performance as massive capex investments erode profitability.
- Tech earnings showed winners and losers: Alphabet and Amazon punished despite growth due to ballooning capex, while Intel plunged 23%.
- Next Tuesday's election emerges as critical hinge point for geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy in December, and global bond market stability.
McNamee’s on AI: ‘The Industry May Be Riding the Wrong Horse’
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Roger McNamee argues the AI industry may be pursuing the wrong technological direction despite bull market enthusiasm.
- McNamee's independence from Silicon Valley allows him to offer candid criticism without fear of losing clients or access to industry insiders.
- Red flags in AI narratives deserve scrutiny even during bull markets, especially from analysts unconstrained by financial incentives.