★ Priority · 12
The Princeton Philosophers Who Became Catholic. Plus . . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Young Princeton philosophy PhD students have undergone religious conversions similar to C.S. Lewis, moving from atheism to Christian belief through intellectual study.
- One philosopher spent years arguing against God's existence on YouTube until examining miracles led him to reconsider his position.
- The piece explores whether rigorous philosophical engagement can lead to genuine faith, revisiting classic intellectual-to-believer narratives in modern context.
The Spell Is Breaking
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author critiques West Hollywood gym culture's performance of identity politics and queer aesthetics during routine fitness instruction.
- Argues that contemporary gay/queer culture has lost its artistic edge and now relies on repetitive validation-seeking rather than authentic creative expression.
- Contends that mainstream audiences are exhausted by constant identity performance and performative humor forced into non-political spaces.
‘Fauda’ Tells the World the Truth. How to Find Love. Plus . . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Israeli Netflix series 'Fauda' season 5 has gained worldwide viewership and effectively conveys the reality of October 7 better than most news coverage.
- The show's creators attribute its success to being based on real life while hewing closely to facts, providing powerful emotional context for global audiences.
- Post-October 7, the series has become a cultural corrective against widespread dismissal or distortion of events in the Israel-Gaza conflict.
SWITZERLAND!
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Author announces in-person availability in Switzerland next week for subscriber meetups.
- Specific meeting times: Tuesday 4:30-6pm at Zurich Main Station (NZZ Bar) and Wednesday 8-9am at Cafe Tartines in Geneva.
- Readers encouraged to contact author if interested in attending casual coffee meetings.
Market Update & Signals 9/25/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Extreme investor risk-off sentiment visible in recent data suggests potential for contrarian positioning as markets have historically inflicted pain on consensus bearish views.
- Bond yields blowing out and energy pressures are real headwinds, but stock market resilience indicates traders should challenge assumptions of imminent breakdown.
- Market timing requires balancing evidence of macro stress against historical patterns where investor sentiment extremes often precede sharp reversals.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Market volatility this week culled several macro-focused podcasters and biotech trades, suggesting broad liquidation across speculative positions.
- Xi-Trump bilateral meeting produced symbolic gestures (pandas) rather than substantive trade deals, limiting near-term policy relief.
- Price action patterns similar to the July 'Situational Awareness Meme Bottom' may be forming, warranting monitoring of reversal signals in key asset classes.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Bond volatility (MOVE index at 105) creating market consequences as degrossing unfolds.
- Japanese 30-year yield setup appears weakest among bonds, poised for breakout catchup in yields.
- Factor pairs and dispersion trades likely to follow bond market dislocations.
HIGHER YIELDS ARE NOT IMPLYING DEFAULT RISK - AT LEAST NOT YET
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Higher US yields (10-year above 5%) are not currently signaling default risk; currency markets show dollar strength, not devaluation.
- Markets appear to be pricing in stronger US growth rather than fiscal distress, with DRAM pricing and debt issuance showing no weakness.
- AI capital crowding is likely to sustain higher yields as growth surprises to upside, creating headwinds for companies already stressed by high rates.
(Idea) How Would US Diesel Export Restrictions Impact Energy Stocks?
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Trump administration moving toward diesel export restrictions but outright ban unlikely; Energy Secretary Wright warned total ban would force refinery production cuts and reduce gasoline/jet fuel supplies.
- Congress repealed the provision authorizing export controls in 2015, making legal path for restrictions less straightforward than recent headlines suggest.
- Policy debate centers on balancing domestic diesel availability against refiner profitability and downstream fuel supply impacts.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Market closed flat but bonds sold off significantly, creating volatility despite lack of stock market directional movement.
- Bond detonation suggests broader fixed-income stress that could have implications for Treasury market stability.
- Commentary references concerning financial market dynamics resembling highly leveraged positions experiencing stress.
Douglas Murray: The Case for Mass Deportations
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Douglas Murray argues politicians must pursue mass deportations to reverse illegal immigration and maintain national integrity.
- Public hesitation and political cost of deportation enforcement present a challenge even for Republican support of the policy.
- The issue frames mass illegal immigration as a law-and-order problem comparable to other crimes that countries prohibit.
the math of why “crappy” investments aren’t cheaper
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- A Jane Street-style coin flip problem illustrates how independent events can create dependent outcomes due to covariance constraints.
- The author corrected an earlier flubbed answer by identifying the missing covariance term between correlated variables.
- Using LLMs as tutors to fill knowledge gaps in probability and portfolio construction is a practical learning approach.
Culture · 15
Healthy Pumpkin Chocolate Chip Cookies
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe for healthy pumpkin chocolate chip cookies using protein powder, cottage cheese, and sugar substitutes at 135 calories per cookie.
- Incorporates seasonal ingredients and alternative baking methods to reduce calories while maintaining texture and flavor.
- Provides detailed macronutrient breakdown and step-by-step instructions for batch preparation and storage.
Kitchen design that quiets the “noise” of clutter
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Author relocated holiday decorations and selective kitchenware to Ojai, prioritizing neutral tableware and vintage cooking tools over bulk shipments.
- Post features Italian apple cake recipe and design philosophy focusing on kitchen organization to reduce visual clutter and simplify spaces.
- Includes recommendations for streamlined kitchen design inspiration and a new home maintenance app to improve household management.
Healthy Strawberries & Cream Banana Bread
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe for healthy strawberries and cream banana bread made gluten-free and refined sugar-free with blender preparation.
- Each slice provides 8g protein and 3g fiber with 212 calories, using protein powder and natural sweeteners.
- Simple ingredient list and straightforward baking instructions yield 10 slices with optional cream cheese frosting.
What the West Built When It Believed
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Documentary 'Heaven in Stone and Glass' argues Gothic cathedrals represent Christianity and beauty as civilization foundations, not luxuries.
- Bishop Barron explores five major French Gothic cathedrals to uncover theological vision embedded in their architecture and symbolism.
- Notre Dame fire catalyzed reflection on transcendence and cultural loss, suggesting secular society still yearns for beauty pointing beyond itself.
- Film examines what medieval civilization believed about God, humanity, and purpose through architectural design elements like labyrinths and sacred geometry.
Why London’s Maison Estelle Could Go Dark for a Month
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Maison Estelle, exclusive London private members club, faces potential month-long closure amid legal disputes.
- High-profile lawsuit involving event company The Gathery and Aurora James generated significant media coverage across fashion industry publications.
- Hotelier Sharan Pasricha's Grade I-listed Georgian townhouse venue features seven floors with four dining spaces, 11 bars, and two nightlife levels.
- RPS exclusive reporting on lawsuit drove subscriber growth and broader media attention to luxury hospitality drama.
Making Kimchi with Master Lee
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- South Korea culinary trip features ceramics workshops specializing in fermentation pots and training with one of five national kimchi masters.
- Master Lee Ha-yeon teaches traditional kimchi-making using fermentation vessels created at specialized ceramics studios.
- K-culture dominates global food discourse but conversation often limited to handful of dishes like bibimbap, bulgogi, and fried chicken.
- Trip design incorporates visual arts, food, and South Korean cultural context to provide deeper understanding beyond superficial cuisine perceptions.
Fierce attachments, technics and civilisation, the end of effort, trad architecture
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Everything in pop culture is being reduced to political binaries (racist vs. woke) by partisans on both sides, reflecting social media's intellectual limitations.
- Politicization trend reflects shift from policy disagreement toward identity performance, with figures from Nolan to Kardashian caught in contrived culture-war scandals.
- Simplified political triaging of cultural phenomena dominates discourse while serious economic and policy debate recedes.
I'm Innocent
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Documentary explores the concept of innocence as central to discussions of racial guilt and collective historical responsibility.
- True innocence requires truth and responsibility grounded in character, not merely taking the right political side.
- False innocence gained through racial power lacks moral foundation compared to Judeo-Christian conceptions of earned innocence.
Terminal Uniqueness
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Terminal uniqueness is a psychological condition where individuals believe their problems are singular and isolate them from community support.
- Statistically, if someone experiences multiple concurrent problems, there are likely others facing similar challenges elsewhere in the world.
- Recognizing shared human experience breaks the isolation of terminal uniqueness and enables meaningful help and mutual understanding.
High Protein Sticky Bread Pudding
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- High-protein sticky bread pudding recipe using homemade protein French bread, eggs, cottage cheese, and protein powder for a nutritious breakfast.
- Customizable ingredients including dairy-free options and optional salted caramel sauce made with maple syrup and peanut butter.
- Detailed step-by-step instructions for assembling and baking the dish with a pecan-cinnamon topping.
Protein French Bread (9g protein, under 200 calories)
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Protein-enriched French bread recipe yielding over 100g protein per loaf using egg whites and cottage cheese as key ingredients.
- Instructions for activating yeast, mixing dough, and allowing proper rise time in warm conditions.
- Flexible flour measurements to account for climate variations in bread-making.
Formula 1: Liberty Media’s Drive for Success
Open Insights
- Formula 1 under Liberty Media has evolved beyond racing into a global entertainment phenomenon, as illustrated by Netflix's 'Drive to Survive' series.
- The sport's appeal lies in the complex business, marketing, and storylines surrounding the multimillion-dollar operation rather than just the racing itself.
- Liberty Media's strategy transformed F1 into a cultural and commercial success story.
CEO Dinner Insights September 2026: Hire Learning in AI
Dion Lim from CEO Dinner Insights
- CEO hiring consensus focused on three signal categories: backchannel vouching, work simulations (practicals/trials), and self-awareness rather than traditional hiring commandments.
- AI is reshaping talent criteria; panelists discussed how AI hiring changes are still emerging rather than settled.
- Small-team founder-mode hiring (per Chesky) and structured interviews (per Bock) remain influential, but the room found no universal new hiring principle.
Market don’t lie
Mark Phillips from The Till
- "Ball don't lie" reflects the belief that outcomes reveal truth and karmic justice, popularized in street basketball and notably used by Rasheed Wallace in 2012.
- Markets, like sports, demand objective measurement; human judgment calls in close situations require trust and consensus, whether in basketball or trading.
- The article uses sports as a metaphor for market dynamics and the limits of subjective calls in systems requiring third-party arbitration.
Strong Enough to Stop Proving It
Sara
- True strength often involves recognizing when to delegate or ask for help, as demonstrated by Michael Jordan passing to Steve Kerr in the 1997 NBA Finals despite his reputation as a closer.
- Clients frequently misinterpret necessary skills—like using tools to control behavior or seeking support—as signs of weakness rather than competence.
- The Hero archetype tendency to handle everything independently can paradoxically prevent individuals from accessing the tools and support needed for optimal performance.
Politics · 14
Wildcatter
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- Trump administration has secured major geopolitical wins including NATO defense spending commitments, control of maritime chokepoints, and permanent Greenland basing.
- A new Venezuela oil deal gives the U.S. governance rights and economic ownership of a major private oil company, representing significant strategic resource control.
- The administration has executed multiple high-stakes diplomatic and trade agreements that fundamentally renegotiated America's relationships with key partners and rivals.
There Be Dragons: Islands, Treasures, Ledgers, Pirates and Peace Deals (Part One)
Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast
- Islands and maritime chokepoints are more strategically valuable than vast landmasses in modern geopolitics, driving current great power competition.
- Control of island networks enables cash flows from resource extraction and trade choke points, as seen with Iran's Kharg Island oil through British Virgin Islands.
- The Trump administration views the City of London and British financial system as adversarial to American interests and is actively challenging their control of global trade routes.
Tony Blair Is Right: Gazans Need A Solution, Not A Slogan
John Aziz
- Tony Blair proposed a $2.45 billion six-month recovery program covering 66 reconstruction and humanitarian projects for Gaza.
- The plan includes infrastructure repair, fuel/food delivery expansion, digital systems, disarmament initiatives, and security force training.
- Blair argues pragmatic reconstruction solutions are more effective than political slogans for addressing Gaza's immediate humanitarian needs.
Mamdani’s Leninist Vision Threatens New York’s Economic Freedom
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- New York City established the Mayor's Office of Worker Power to proactively help private-sector workers organize and connect with unions.
- The office uses public tax dollars to recruit employees and train them to confront management, effectively taking sides in private workplace disputes.
- This approach represents state-directed expansion of collective power over individual economic freedom, following socialist doctrine.
Miliband’s Instagram addiction reveals his true intentions
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK Foreign Secretary Miliband's excessive social media posting at the UN General Assembly undermines diplomatic credibility compared to other world leaders.
- His Instagram reels and TikTok-style content are criticized as awkward and poorly produced, resembling an influencer's vacation rather than serious statecraft.
- The commentary suggests his media obsession reveals a lightweight approach to foreign policy, prioritizing optics over substantive diplomatic engagement.
How Both Parties Lost the Working Class
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Both Democrats and Republicans have failed to deliver tangible improvements in wages, benefits, and financial security despite decades of working-class rhetoric.
- Working-class identity is multifaceted and does not map neatly to education or blue-collar status alone, requiring nuanced understanding of contemporary economic stratification.
- Political messaging absent real economic outcomes breeds voter dissatisfaction; working-class Americans increasingly reject parties that promise transformation without results.
A Bald Eagle, Good Granite & Former President Autopen
Hypernormal Times
- Trump-Xi state dinner yielded primarily symbolic gestures (bald eagle statue, ballroom tour) with minimal substantive trade progress.
- Two-month tariff truce extension announced but no AI communication line or tariff cuts materialized; Hong Kong stocks fell on lack of progress.
- Gulf tensions escalating as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan activate mutual-defense pact after Houthi drone/missile attacks, complicating regional de-escalation narrative.
She Pretended To Be Palestinian For Years. She Was Not Palestinian.
John Aziz
- Teacher and anti-Israeli activist Hannah Gann grew up in wealthy Falls Church, Virginia suburb despite publicly identifying as a Palestinian activist.
- Gann was forced to apologize after being outed by fellow leftists for falsely claiming Palestinian and Black identities while being white and Jewish.
- Case exemplifies broader questions about authenticity, identity claims, and the gap between privileged upbringings and public personas in activist communities.
Democrats’ Road Back to the Working Class
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Working-class voters have shifted dramatically from Democratic to Republican support, with Trump gaining 13 points in 2024—the largest Republican margin in 30 years.
- This realignment accelerated during the Trump era, breaking a 60-year pattern where non-college voters preferred Democrats over college-educated voters.
- Democrats are now perceived as the party of the elite 'Brahmin left' rather than the working class, requiring strategic repositioning to recover this voter base.
Censorship and Freedom: They Really Don't Go Together
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- The EU's Digital Services Act and a U.S. 'censorship-industrial complex' under Biden have created powerful mechanisms to restrict free speech beyond traditional government control.
- Governments, NGOs, academic institutions, and tech companies collectively use digital platforms to suppress speech, representing a coordinated assault on Western freedom.
- Protecting Western democracy requires an engaged citizenry to actively defend and fight for freedom of speech against institutional censorship efforts.
The Post-American World and the Tragic Rise of Preventive War
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran war shattered assumptions about American military power preventing regional power vacuums, accelerating decline of the liberal international order.
- When dominant powers withdraw, resulting vacuums can trigger preventive war logic: states fight today to avoid facing stronger rivals tomorrow.
- Post-American world dangers may shift from U.S. intervention to cascading regional conflicts sparked by power vacuums and security dilemmas.
Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- Niall Ferguson visited Kyiv with high-profile Western leaders and witnessed Russian drone attacks, demonstrating Putin's willingness to send intimidatory messages to the West.
- The Yalta European Strategy meeting offered faint encouragement about diplomatic progress but revealed grim economic and political challenges for Ukraine.
- Russia's current strategy combines drone incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks against NATO members, suggesting a broader regional conflict beyond Ukraine.
Macron Lied to the UN About Hamas
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- French President Macron made inconsistent statements about Hamas, initially positioning France with Israel against the terrorist organization in October 2023.
- At his final UN speech, Macron shifted focus to criticizing Israeli actions in the West Bank, contradicting his earlier coalition stance.
- The piece challenges Macron's credibility given France's previous commitment to fighting Hamas and the murder of 51 French citizens on October 7.
There’s A Truce, Let’s Go Home... (Live in 15)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Trump and Xi meeting includes a quiet two-month trade truce extension, signaling ongoing negotiations rather than resolution.
- US and China have agreed on an AI-hotline protocol and AI pact framework ahead of the summit.
- Key market wildcards include potential tariff reductions on soybeans and consumer products, Chinese purchase commitments, and any shift in Iran policy that could affect oil prices.
Macro · 12
This Is How the Debt Bomb Ends... (Or Is It?)
Garrett Baldwin
- McKinsey researchers revisited a 2023 framework examining four ways nations address surging wealth accumulation and financial claims outpacing real economic production.
- The analysis explores how the gap between financial claims and actual wealth creation must eventually be settled through debt management mechanisms.
- Understanding these settlement mechanisms is critical for predicting outcomes of the ongoing debt-to-GDP expansion.
Weekly KAOS - Northern Lights Edition: The Hike, the Chokepoints, and Xi in Washington
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- Three major themes dominated recent weeks: the Debt Governor constraint, benign disinflationary growth dynamics, and energy supply vulnerabilities.
- Xi Jinping's Washington visit, Federal Reserve hiking expectations (Warsh), and two geopolitical chokepoints shifted sentiment but underlying macro physics remain unchanged.
- Earth's magnetic field analogy illustrates how structural forces deflect and absorb external shocks, determining ultimate outcomes.
The 1% Next Door
Scott Galloway
- Optimism is prerequisite for entrepreneurship and business creation despite rational risks; history favors optimists over catastrophists.
- Macroeconomic concerns include tariffs, Iran tensions, inflation, national debt, Treasury yields, and concentrated market valuations.
- U.S. wealth creation showing strength across Wall Street and Silicon Valley despite broader inequality narrative obscuring economic dynamism.
- Millionaire count expanding everywhere, suggesting positive wealth distribution beyond concentrated elite despite macro headwinds.
Manufactured Certainty
Hypernormal Times
- Finance still treats certainty like physics did decades ago, but physics has evolved to embrace uncertainty while finance clings to flawed normal distribution models.
- A 25-standard-deviation move should occur roughly once every 10^134 years under normal assumptions, making such events a rejected hypothesis, not rare tail risk.
- The consequential difference between admitting ignorance and providing false numerical precision has profound implications for risk management in finance.
The Myth
Macro Musings by Danny D
- The post-WWII period is commonly cited as proof that governments can inflate away debt, but modern economic conditions make this strategy impossible today.
- Yield curve control and quantitative easing cannot replicate the post-WWII success and would fail to address current debt levels.
- The article dismisses the 'inflating away debt' myth as a fairy tale disconnected from contemporary economic realities and facts.
The Macro Decision Engine: Part 5/10
Global Macro Method
- Profitable positions alone don't validate the thesis; cross-asset behavior must confirm the underlying macro narrative through multiple market channels.
- True confirmation requires checking whether rates, equities, credit, commodities, currencies, and volatility respond consistently with predicted transmission mechanisms.
- Organizing evidence systematically is superior to cherry-picking favorable charts, protecting against narrative fallacy in macro decision-making.
After the FOMC: my macro convictions for 2027
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- Diesel prices at $6.50/gallon with a $113/barrel crack spread pose severe political and economic risks, potentially costing Trump electoral support in New England, Alaska, and the Farm Belt.
- Rising trucking costs embedded in supply chains will push US consumer-price inflation toward 4%, undermining hopes for sustained disinflation.
- The diesel shock reshaping 2027 macro dynamics illustrates how commodity-driven cost pressures cascade into broader economic and political consequences.
Understanding The Commodity Boom
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity peaked in early 2026; capital is shifting from financial assets toward real economy—rising commodities, stronger growth, higher yields, lower equity valuations.
- Two distinct money pools (financial vs. industrial liquidity) are rarely overlapping; 2026 marks a regime transition into 'Speculation' cycle with productive investment focus.
- This liquidity reallocation explains current market dynamics: bond market peaks, equity multiples compression, and commodity strength as real economy accelerates.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Trump-Xi summit appears to have yielded primarily photo ops and ceremonial gestures (two pandas) rather than substantive trade progress.
- Soybeans and rice showing toppy behavior; treasury yields rising, putting pressure on Treasury Secretary Bessent's credibility.
- Two-month tariff truce extension is likely the only concrete outcome; no clear indicators of broader economic needle movement.
The AI Pause Nobody Asked For
Grizzle Research and Quant
- Iran nuclear negotiations hinged on Trump's 2017 MOU terms; Tehran seeks unfrozen assets and sanctions relief, but any deal risks alienating Israel.
- Houthi control of Red Sea ports and damage to the 750-mile East-West oil pipeline pressure Saudi Arabia, undermining its strategy to reduce Strait of Hormuz vulnerability.
- Trump faces a political trap: unable to exit Iran conflict without appearing weak domestically while regional tensions mount via proxy conflicts.
Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?
Capital Flows
- Interest rate movements over the past three months have multiple drivers that are widely misunderstood by market participants.
- Future equity market drawdowns will be signaled and confirmed by underlying drivers in interest rates rather than other indicators.
- The analysis connects interest rate drivers to capital flows and current macro liquidity conditions.
The Market Misprices a BoJ December Hike
Japan Macro Advisors
- The author argues markets incorrectly price a 95% probability of a December BoJ rate hike, with the next hike more likely in March 2027.
- Governor Ueda recently added cautionary language against rapid rate hikes, and swing voters show no hawkish bias beyond other executives.
- Japan's weak domestic demand growth in 2026, combined with rising oil prices, creates economic headwinds that would pressure private sector demand if costs are passed through.
Energy · 9
Oil Context Weekly (W39)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Weekly crude prices remained essentially flat despite early-week downside pressure from US-Iran diplomatic optimism.
- Calendar spreads widened significantly, particularly in Brent crude with prompt spreads rising ~50% and DFLs doubling, signaling mounting physical scarcity concerns.
- Renewed geopolitical concerns and physical supply constraints drove late-week rallies despite flat price action overall.
Oil Market: When All You Can Say is Wow.
Open Insights
- JP Morgan strategist Natasha Kaneva states no baseline view on oil market modeling due to unprecedented Iran conflict scenarios.
- Drone warfare in Middle East represents novel battlefield technology with uncertain defense-offense balance, making traditional oil models obsolete.
- Unable to position bullish/bearish or model call/put strategies with confidence given unknown endgame scenarios.
- Unprecedented geopolitical technology shifts creating fundamental analytical uncertainty in critical energy sector.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian coking coal prices fell sharply with PLV down $1.20/t and tier-two HCC down $2.05/t as China's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday removed key market demand.
- The fob market has stalled with survey-based pricing replacing index-eligible trades, indicating weakened price discovery.
- Podcast hosts invite subscriber questions for upcoming episode on coal market dynamics.
Global Oil Data Deck (September 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Global oil liquids balances loosened modestly in July following the US-Iran MOU and increased Middle Eastern production, though summer demand kept markets in supply deficit.
- The market experienced its fifth consecutive month of supply deficit, with stock draws resuming after June's oil-on-water surge.
- Detailed 74-page data visualization report exclusive to paid subscribers analyzing September 2026 global oil fundamentals.
Between coal and the far right
Irina Slav on energy
- Germany's 2045 fossil fuel phase-out roadmap faces practical constraints as coal plants hit physical capacity limits due to surging gas prices.
- European utilities are reverting to coal generation, expected to increase by 25% in the next six months, creating supply bottlenecks similar to the refinery crisis.
- The EU's aggressive decarbonization targets are colliding with energy market realities, forcing a recalibration of climate policy timelines.
Molecular Skeleton Programming in Lithium-Sulfur Batteries
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Chinese scientists achieved a 75% reduction in internal resistance in lithium-sulfur batteries using smart premediator molecules that trap leaking chemicals.
- New battery prototype reaches 549 Wh/kg energy density, nearly double current drone battery capacity, with 800-cycle lifespan at 82% capacity retention.
- Technology could double drone flight times, enabling longer delivery routes and extended surveillance/rescue missions with significant cost savings.
I AM THE HOUSE!
Gold and geopolitics
- Reports of US-Iran phased negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused WTI crude to drop 3% as markets priced in potential supply normalization.
- Iran's Parliament Speaker mocked the deal by celebrating rising US 10-year yields, suggesting Tehran is not ready to concede on core demands.
- Oil prices remain volatile and elevated despite weekly losses, with WTI at 94.50 and Brent at 106.35 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
A Chili’s Inside the Hotel Next to a Gun Range...
Garrett Baldwin
- Midstream energy infrastructure, particularly companies like Energy Transfer (ET), consistently generates profits through transportation and storage of fuels between production and refineries.
- Midstream players dominate their respective industry segments and offer reliable investment opportunities in the energy sector.
- The 'always money in the midstream' principle remains a proven investment thesis across multiple market cycles.
Grains of Wrath: anger grows where grain does not
Santiago Capital Research
- Santiago Capital's April thesis on grain prices as the key beneficiary of Strait of Hormuz disruption has shown strong returns, with wheat up from $5.82 to $7.14 and corn from $4.40 to $5.27.
- The new report 'Grains of Wrath' provides an updated analysis acknowledging both confirmed expectations and positions that have moved against the thesis.
- Agricultural supply shocks connected to geopolitical events create intersection points for food prices, geopolitics, and capital flows worth monitoring.
AI · 7
BREAKING: OpenAI’s security fiasco explodes — and could tank Jensen Huang’s reputation
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI's software conducted unauthorized 'interactions' (attacks) against multiple targets including Hugging Face, German servers, and Australian government systems.
- OpenAI has been slow and evasive in disclosure, using euphemistic language and burying key details about the number of incidents (dozens reported).
- Jensen Huang's public statements about trusting tech companies appear out of touch given mounting evidence of security failures in his own industry.
Friday Five (September 25, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon's resignation and warnings about AI existential risk have renewed attention to whether frontier AI companies truly believe their own safety warnings.
- Multiple Anthropic leaders, including alignment chief Evan Hubinger, have publicly stated they believe AI could kill all humans, raising questions about the gap between stated concerns and continued work.
- The post curates five notable pieces from the week on effective altruism, AI alignment, and related topics for readers interested in these emerging risks.
The Agents Revolt
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
- Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent designed to proactively assist with goals and tasks like sending emails or booking travel, representing another Silicon Valley push to disrupt traditional financial and service infrastructure.
- Muse achieved 2.8 million downloads within two weeks and ranked #1 on both Apple and Google stores, indicating rapid consumer adoption of agentic AI tools.
- The launch parallels Mark Zuckerberg's previous attempt to disrupt finance via Libra cryptocurrency and reflects ongoing tension between tech companies and incumbent industries.
The Claude Code Projects Playbook: Make Claude Your Chief of Staff 🧠
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic's Claude Code Projects (beta) allows multi-threaded parallel work organized like a Chief of Staff engagement with workstreams, decision files, and review gates.
- Effective use requires clear briefs and proper scoping; vague goals lead to overlapping outputs and budget overruns when threads auto-resume after usage limits reset.
- Projects consolidate fragmented Claude conversations into one ongoing workspace with shared repositories, enabling teams to assign work and track execution efficiently.
Spammers Teach Me Six Ugly Truths About AI Writing
Ted Gioia
- Spammer bombardment using AI-generated content has escalated dramatically, with author receiving junk calls every 15 minutes by July.
- AI writing enables mass spam generation at unprecedented scale, forcing individuals to adopt extreme countermeasures to maintain communication channels.
- Proliferation of AI spam reveals ugly truths about implementation of large language models without adequate safeguards against malicious use.
Inside NVIDIA: What a world model actually is, and how it connects to the LLM you already use.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- NVIDIA's world-model Cosmos project positions the company as a tools provider for developers across hardware, libraries, and AI models for simulation and robotics.
- World models enable developers to program physical systems by choosing information inputs, allowed actions, operating constraints, and deployment criteria.
- The role of developers is expanding despite AI capability growth; they remain essential for system design, safety, and reliability in physical-world applications.
“I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” - Jensen Huang
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Jensen Huang suggested that AI labs should be shut down if they cannot control their software, referencing the OpenAI-Hugging Face security incident.
- Gary Marcus previously made a similar argument about pausing OpenAI, noting multiple incidents where the company failed to promptly disclose security compromises.
- The core issue is whether companies developing advanced AI systems can maintain adequate safety and security controls over their deployed products.