★ Priority · 11
Midterms & The Midas Touch
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Nasdaq volatility pattern mirrors AI hype cycle with repeated -5% to +3% swings since mid-October.
- Post-midterm seasonality shows S&P 500 gains in 21 consecutive periods averaging +16.6%, but historical precedent may not apply given current market dislocations.
- Hedge fund de-grossing at 8% largest since 2017 signals major portfolio rotation out of AI trades into beaten-down stocks.
- Intel's >50% monthly decline mirrors 2000 crash, suggesting AI-driven market may face significant corrections.
BoJ risk assessment inconsistent with Outlook report
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- Bank of Japan remained on sidelines despite being furthest behind the curve in removing monetary accommodation, awaiting Fed and ECB action.
- Central banks globally lack inflation-fighting backbone and may face higher terminal rates if AI disinflation doesn't materialize.
- BoJ Governor Ueda showing more resolve in discussing upside inflation risks but structure of G3 policy coordination limits independent action.
- Slow monetary tightening increases risk of painful inflation-driven hiking cycle later rather than timely near-term medicine.
What My Exorcist Friends Tell Me About Halloween. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Rod Dreher explains why friendships with working exorcists led him to abandon Halloween celebrations despite his desire to remain 'cool' about the holiday.
- Catholic priests and exorcists recount claims that Satanists view Halloween as their major religious holiday and conduct rituals including alleged human sacrifice.
- The essay balances folklore and anecdotal testimony from law enforcement against urban skepticism, questioning what city dwellers dismiss as rural superstition.
(Idea) SLB - The Recovery Is Already Priced In
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- SLB's positioned for better next 10 years than the past 10, but the company's 20-year track record (1.5% return vs S&P's 11.1%) raises execution concerns.
- Poor capital allocation and repeated execution failures have plagued SLB's stock performance despite favorable industry tailwinds and diversified oilfield services portfolio.
- Recovery prospects already priced into the stock; structural issues in management and capital discipline suggest limited upside potential over a full cycle.
Casey Neistat: Why I Run the New York City Marathon Every Year
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Casey Neistat has run the NYC Marathon 10 times after doctors said he'd never run again following a motorcycle accident.
- The NYC Marathon represents the ultimate expression of running as accessible, rule-free personal achievement requiring no membership or permission.
- The real appeal is watching ordinary people overcome personal limits, not the professional elite—the collective pursuit of seemingly impossible individual goals.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trader explores potential "Blue Wave" trade scenarios ahead of midterm elections, noting Tesla and SpaceX would lose under Democratic governance.
- Elon Musk's recent anti-Democrat tweets prompted purchase of Tesla November $380 puts as a speculative position despite TSLA trading near highs.
IS OIL A BETTER INFLATION HEDGE THAN GOLD?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Gold/TLT ratio has broken below 200-day moving average for first time since 2020 after returning 500%, suggesting the trade may be correcting.
- Long-dated treasury yields fell back to lower levels despite earlier breakthrough above 5%, creating divergence where gold and bonds aren't moving together as expected.
- China's continued shift from Treasury holdings to gold purchases and yuan appreciation suggest long-term demand for inflation hedges despite short-term trade weakness.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Apple has outperformed Nasdaq by 16% YTD and trades at all-time highs, driven by investor flight to the only Mag7 stock not burning cash on data centers.
- Apple faces headwinds from elevated memory prices and foldable iPhone production issues despite market consensus, creating tactical put opportunities.
- Le Shrub identified November 6 $320 puts at $1 premium as a low-cost bet against crowded long positioning and operational challenges.
The First State to Undo Legalized Weed? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Massachusetts Question 8 would repeal recreational marijuana legalization from a decade ago, marking the first anti-pot measure of its kind.
- A cultural shift against marijuana legalization is underway despite legal status in 24 states, with similar ballot measures likely coming to Maine.
- The post explores personal and broader consequences of legalized cannabis policy as midterm election issues beyond traditional political contests.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- WTI oil surged over $2 overnight driven by large Asian buyer activity (10k lot purchase), then suppression algorithms walked price back down.
- Multiple geopolitical catalysts including Ras Tanura shutdown, Iran port bombing, and Strait tanker strikes were initially ignored by markets.
- Month-end positioning and potential algorithmic trading dynamics are shaping oil price action despite significant fundamental supply disruptions.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Intel reported abysmal results declining 25%, with AI hype-driven buy-the-dip pitches suddenly disappearing from the market.
- Russell 2000 outperformed Nasdaq by 8% in October, signaling rotation away from mega-cap growth and AI-heavy indices.
- Weyerhauser trading at 40% discount to NAV offers generational asset value despite quarterly earnings relevance being secondary to valuation opportunity.
Politics · 10
Six-Chart Sunday – November Waves
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- Record voter engagement but historic dissatisfaction with own Congressional members heading into midterm election.
- Prediction markets and expert models forecast Democratic gains in Senate, but polls could miss significantly in either direction.
- Unusually narrow battleground and unpredictable swing voters make outcome difficult to predict despite polling consensus.
- Early returns to watch include races that could signal broader national trends before polls fully close.
Palestinian Radicalisation Is Real (But Not Universal)
John Aziz
- Some young Palestinians exhibit severe political and ideological radicalization, including hate speech and calls for violence against Jewish people.
- Radicalized youth are prime recruitment targets for militant groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
- Palestinian armed groups historically organized military training camps for children as recruitment events, with documented use of child soldiers.
- While radicalization is a serious concern, the author emphasizes it is not universal among Palestinians and contrasts it with those seeking peace.
Fifty Convictions, Fourteen Hundred Children
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Britain's grooming gangs inquiry beginning in December will document how authorities systematically avoided recording or discussing perpetrators' ethnicity due to fear of appearing racist.
- The Alexis Jay report found 1,400+ children were sexually abused in Rotherham between 1997-2013, with officials deliberately silencing discussion to avoid inflaming racial tensions.
- Eleven years later, Baroness Casey's findings show that in two-thirds of cases, suspects' ethnicity still goes unrecorded, revealing persistent institutional cowardice.
- The author argues the real question is not why warnings were ignored, but what those in power are prepared to do about it now.
Civil War in Poland? The Third Ingredient Just Arrived
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Poland's President forced his way through constitutional court doors at 1am Saturday with riot police and judges blocking the entrance, calling it a seizure of state by force.
- Violent populism in NATO's frontline state has split the country, with two ambassadors resigning and former justice minister claiming a coup d'état is underway.
- Moscow has provided a third ingredient to accelerate the court conflict into potential civil war, arriving within hours of the Saturday incident.
- The U.S. midterms raise stakes for this more dangerous situation than Ukraine faced in 2020, with a critical window for action closing.
Heiling Hitler In The Hallways
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- A seventh grader in Ohio experienced antisemitism during Cultural Awareness Day, highlighting ongoing hostility toward Jewish students in schools.
- The author reflects on the gap between parents' hope for acceptance and the reality of prejudice when children publicly display their religious identity.
- The essay addresses institutional failures to protect Jewish students and questions whether cultural awareness initiatives create vulnerability rather than safety.
Voter Engagement Hits Record High
Demography Unplugged
- Voter engagement for midterms hit a record high with 56% of Americans giving the elections significant thought, up 7 percentage points from 2022.
- Democrats hold a substantial 10-point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans (58% vs 48%), a stronger gap than existed before the 2018 blue wave.
- Record engagement reflects the Fourth Turning era's rising perceived stakes in midterm elections, with Americans viewing them as increasingly consequential.
Friday Five & Mailbag (October 30, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Discusses why public figures like Matt Yglesias appear on ideologically hostile media platforms and the value of engaging with unsympathetic audiences.
- Praises politicians from both parties (Buttigieg, Jennings) who regularly cross partisan lines to face tough questioning.
- Argues for more cross-partisan media engagement despite knowing participants will face hostile questioning and potential bad faith arguments.
“Pro-Palestine” Jewish Comedian Accosted By Antisemite
John Aziz
- Pro-Palestinian stance provides no protection against antisemitism, as demonstrated by a Jewish comedian being confronted with explicit anti-Jewish hatred at a show.
- Years of social media-driven radicalization have normalized increasingly toxic antisemitic tropes ranging from media control claims to comparisons of Israel to Nazi Germany.
- Antisemitic rhetoric has spread from fringe extremists through mainstream platforms and creators like Hasan Piker, reaching millions of young followers.
When History Rhymes, and the US Strikes
Open Insights
- Historical parallels suggest a major US military escalation against Iran is likely post-midterms if diplomatic talks fail, similar to the 1972 Linebacker II campaign.
- Iran insists on controlling the Strait of Hormuz while the Trump administration demands Iranian nuclear materials as a legacy centerpiece, creating an impasse.
- Regional mediation efforts by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have produced minimal progress as both sides dig in on non-negotiable demands.
Criminal
Scott Galloway
- America's entrepreneurial advantage stems from rule of law protecting business builders from criminal prosecution and violent seizure common in other nations.
- Trump's second term exhibits corrupt acts including $1.8 billion in vanity projects and an endless parade of CEOs bearing gifts, eroding institutional norms.
- Extractive governance models that prioritize personal enrichment over inclusive institutions undermine the foundational advantage that attracts entrepreneurs and capital to America.
Markets · 10
Ghost Liquidity... and an Offer...
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Ghost liquidity in modern electronic markets is conditional and illusory—apparent market depth can evaporate during stress events.
- Market depth (ability to buy/sell near current price without moving it significantly) differs from trading volume and is critical to understanding true liquidity.
- March 2020 serves as a historical example of how phantom liquidity disappears during real panic, exposing systemic fragility.
- The issue is a post-GFC structural problem, not an AI bubble, affecting how price discovery actually works on Wall Street.
The Week Ahead 11/1/26
Eliant
- Mixed earnings and disappointing tech results reversed early-week gains, with QQQ down ~200bps and small caps up 130bps by week end.
- Anthropic's S1 filing provided relief to growth and momentum sectors amid Middle East resolution hopes.
- Upcoming week is data-heavy with midterm elections and QRA, with Friday's jobs report being the most critical economic indicator given softer prior readings.
- Factor volatility was elevated but small caps showed relative strength despite broader tech weakness.
Token Talk, Trash Talk, and the Hostile React-O-Meter™ Spins Again
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Anthropic's IPO filing mentioned the word 'token' only 14 times despite tokens being central to the company's business model, with most mentions relegated to the glossary.
- GFL, USA Rare Earths, and Covista updates reveal suspicious metrics and filings that may indicate earnings manipulation or undisclosed material information.
- ASTS SpaceMobile's recent activity shows characteristic patterns that trigger the author's Hostile React-O-Meter, suggesting market concerns worth investigating.
- The report uses SEC filings and specialized research tools to identify red flags that mainstream financial media overlooks in popular tech stock coverage.
Anthropic and SpaceX: One Relationship, Two Records
Cape Fear Advisors
- SpaceX's largest customer is Anthropic under a 180-day lease with mutual 90-day termination rights, an arrangement recently amended at one of the two companies.
- SpaceX told the SEC that Anthropic contracts fall outside ordinary-course filing requirements because compute capacity could be easily redeployed to other AI customers.
- The short-term lease structure was SpaceX's request, not Anthropic's, per Elon Musk's statement, indicating SpaceX's preference for flexibility over long-term commitment.
- The SEC questioned whether the agreement should be filed as a material contract upon which the company's business is substantially dependent.
Primer: The Cross-Currency Basis
Conks
- Cross-currency basis has tightened as stress from French fiscal concerns reveals global dollar funding pressures, particularly at the 3-month tenor.
- Euro/USD XCCY basis remains the premier gauge of relative funding conditions between US and European markets, currently showing negative pressure.
- Historical trend since the GFC shows frictions in dollar funding markets have slowly unwound, with future opportunities emerging from fiscal mismanagement across multiple economies.
YWR: Global Factor Model
PAIDErik@YWR
- Global Factor Model ranks over 10,000 stocks on earnings estimate revisions, valuations, and price momentum to identify attractive combinations.
- AI, semiconductors, and supply chain companies (Micron, Lenovo, Taiwan/Japan-based firms) show strongest estimate revisions globally.
- Energy sector (shipping, refiners, integrated oil) represents underappreciated trend with strong estimate revisions that markets are reluctant to discuss or own.
Spooky Speedbrake on the Way to the Singularity?
Campbell
- NASDAQ weakness signals caution despite being within bullish AI trade range; the steepness of recent gains warrants reassessment of entry points.
- Portfolio positioning shifting toward hedges: equity puts are generating returns while gold positions (despite weak technicals) and minerals provide diversification.
- Credit market cracks, higher rates, stronger dollar, and Intel's 30% drop indicate broader economic stress beyond equity volatility in technology sector.
Tidewater: More Cash From the Same Assets
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Tidewater Midstream offers compelling value at C$23 with recovery in earnings and government support for domestic fuel production.
- Company benefits from Canada's proposed fuel credits and owns diversified assets including a refinery, natural gas infrastructure, and renewable diesel stake.
- Investment thesis centers on generating more cash from existing assets, falling debt levels, and expansion of aviation fuel business.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Investors accept upside volatility readily but detest downside swings, creating asymmetric market reactions to price movements.
- Brazil's Ibovespa rallied explosively on Bolsonaro's first-round electoral win but faced sharp reversals following the final presidential election result.
- Election outcomes can rapidly reverse market momentum and capital flows, illustrating political risk's impact on emerging markets.
The October Kidney Shot (Live at 8 am ET)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Rising volatility marked by FNGD pushing above 20-day and 50-day moving averages signals potential market weakness, different from previous selloffs.
- Current market turmoil driven by regulatory pressure, earnings disappointment, and loss of trust in the Federal Reserve's credibility.
- Central banks and Treasury departments continue propping up markets through accommodation and financial engineering as markets enter the latter part of the cycle.
Macro · 9
The Week That Matters (26-30 Oct, 2026)
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- American financial markets hitting record highs on tech strength, but structural economic growth shifting toward Asia.
- Disconnect widening between Western financial narratives of US dominance and actual redistribution of global economic activity eastward.
- Asian markets showing genuine structural changes in trade relationships and strategic influence despite US technological leadership.
- Late 1990s triumphalism had some justification with Japanese capital support; today's US market rally lacks similar fundamental underpinning.
Eyes on Ireland
Chase Taylor from Pinecone Passport
- The US dollar remains above 2022-2024 lows and elevated, likely to stay strong until Iran conflict ends or Fed/Treasury provides liquidity.
- South Korea faces a 30% drawdown despite being the #2 performing market YTD, signaling severe volatility and mean reversion risk.
- October saw most countries in red (negative monthly returns), with exceptions like India staying green despite 12% YTD losses.
- Brazil's election shock triggered market losses over fears of fiscal deficit deterioration and higher-for-longer central bank rates reducing equity attractiveness.
Redeye Macro Note: “Situational Awareness - Surfing the Plateau”
MacroEdge Research
- Market volatility increased late in the week; oil and gas dynamics are shifting amid geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes.
- Prediction markets suggest Trump election outcome could trigger escalated Middle East military campaigns driven by cabinet insiders and personal grievances with Iran.
- Media headlines on conflict negotiations are serving as market manipulation tools while actual military restructuring continues over the 8-month conflict period.
Weekly KAOS - The Bullwhip & The Canary
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- AI trade cracked this week as tech tumbled and bonds rallied, reflecting the Bullwhip Effect amplifying modest upstream demand changes into large swings.
- AI companies like Anthropic sit near the front of supply chains while truly capital-intensive links (chips, servers, power) sit far upstream where small cracks become violent snaps.
- Debt financing of AI buildout means slowdowns appear first in credit markets rather than equity markets, making upstream weakness more dangerous.
Follow the Money
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest
- AI represents a financing story with a full ecosystem of labs, lessors, and guarantors requiring patient capital and new funding models.
- Private markets are increasingly replacing public markets as the primary venue for institutional and retail capital deployment with emerging risks.
- Banks maintain benign credit despite record-low consumer sentiment, while AI agents could disrupt financial services by exposing customer inattention.
Part Deux
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- Alberta rejected immediate separation from Canada while British Columbia elected a Conservative government favoring natural gas expansion, offering divergent visions for Canada's federation.
- Political leadership changes can reshape economic fortunes through decisions on pipelines, resource investment, and market access for entire regions.
- October 2026 provincial votes demonstrated how electoral outcomes can fundamentally alter the economic trajectory of provinces and their resource sectors.
💬 New thread from Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Research hosting live Q&A session with Bob Elliott on macro topics at noon.
- Chat thread format enables real-time interaction between research team and subscribers on macroeconomic questions.
- Session focuses on ongoing macro analysis and discussion within the subscriber community.
Blacklion Daily Den Final Friday October 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Energy prices are cooling future growth expectations rather than feeding inflation, with crude oil levels impairing demand elsewhere.
- NDX 100 equity weakness is driving rate impacts that the market isn't discussing, with AI mania being questioned due to financing constraints.
- Market is pricing out Fed rate hike expectations as growth cools amid declining future growth expectations weighing on the long end of the curve.
BoJ's Ueda Keeps Both Doors Open
Takuji Okubo
- Bank of Japan will more than double ETF sales to 2.5 trillion yen annually from January 2027, signaling moderate tightening in financial conditions.
- BoJ held policy rate at 1.25% while Takata Hajime proposed raising to 1.5%, keeping December hike possibilities open.
- BoJ Governor Ueda's non-committal stance on December hike timing, with Summary of Opinions on November 10 as the first signal point.
Culture · 9
My 10 Rules for Public Speaking
Ted Gioia
- The author learned public speaking through a childhood bargain—winning a speech contest earned him a record player at age 13.
- Early competition success in high school led to ongoing engagement with public speaking demands throughout his career.
- The piece introduces a framework of 10 rules for effective public speaking drawn from decades of personal experience.
- Music and personal motivation were catalysts that transformed an unwilling participant into a skilled communicator.
Darren
Derek Wallis
- The subject started jiu-jitsu through encouragement from a close college friend, coinciding with broader personal renewal via strength training.
- Jiu-jitsu joining and Leading Edge formation aligned with a midlife pivot—addressing burnout and misalignment with personal values.
- The shift from a sedentary, high-pressure work lifestyle to physical training and competition restored the subject's identity as an athlete.
- The practice addresses multiple life dimensions: mental clarity, physical fitness, meaningful activity, and realignment with core identity.
The Explorers Club Went to London. Now the Lawyers Are Involved.
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- The Explorers Club's planned London Soho outpost has collapsed into receivership with the operator allegedly owing £710,000 in unpaid fees.
- Disputed corporate filings and claims of involvement by the New York Attorney General have emerged from the failed venture.
- One man behind the venture is accusing the New York institution's leadership of contributing to the financial mess.
- The exclusive report details how a high-profile international club expansion turned into a legal and financial debacle.
Pomodoro con Riso
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Pomodoro con Riso (tomatoes stuffed with risotto) from Rome offers superior flavor compared to mid-century American versions, with the tomato shell serving as an edible container.
- The dish uses pureed tomato pulp in the risotto filling combined with pecorino Romano and fresh basil, roasted with potato cubes and served at room temperature or cold.
- Beefsteak tomatoes significantly outperform vine-ripened varieties for this recipe due to thicker edges that cook down sweet and soft with distinct flavor development.
- The dish is popular in Italian rosticerie as a make-ahead option that eliminates the need to use the oven during hot weather.
Healthy Homemade Butterfingers
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Homemade sugar-free Butterfingers can be made in 15 minutes with just 5 main ingredients: crushed cornflakes, nut butter, maple syrup, sugar alternative, and vanilla.
- The recipe uses a coconut oil and refined sugar-free chocolate shell to coat the filling bars, yielding 12 bars at 296 calories each with 9g protein.
- The peanut butter filling is frozen for 30 minutes to firm before slicing and dunking in chocolate, making it a practical no-bake cozy season treat.
- The dish can be made with any nut butter and chocolate preference, offering flexibility for dietary preferences and taste variations.
"For all things, including crisis, there should be a season”
The Substack Post
- A reader seeks advice on managing boyfriend's anger and cynicism while navigating differences in emotional temperament and worldview.
- The piece explores the balance between patience and naiveté in relationships when partners have fundamentally different ways of processing emotions.
- Advice column format addresses practical strategies for fostering understanding and connection across personality divides.
How this laundry pro tackles stubborn stains
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Amanda Hesser is developing a new app to transform home cooking and seeking beta testers from early subscribers.
- Recent features include Brooklyn kitchen showcase and travel recommendations from family visits to Florence and London.
- Upcoming content includes Thanksgiving ideas from contributors and a curated gift guide for the holiday season.
Thoughts From A Survivor
Shari A Smith from Running On Faith And Coffee
- Shari A Smith reflects on her journey as a domestic violence survivor and the ongoing process of working through trauma.
- The core realization explored is rejecting the internal narrative of being 'broken' in favor of recognizing oneself as someone enduring a difficult season who will survive.
- Post closes out domestic violence awareness month series with resources for those seeking help (The Hotline, crisis text line).
Good Taste Requires More Than Personal Preference
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Personal taste is shaped by experience and culture, but genuine beauty and discernment require standards beyond subjective preference.
- Social media algorithms enable aesthetic adoption without developing true taste, undermining curiosity and exposure to historical beauty.
- Meaningful objects carry stories and intrinsic value that cannot be judged by photogenic appeal alone, challenging substance-over-style culture.