★ Priority · 19
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Equal-weight stocks (RSP) showing broad market weakness and approaching oversold conditions again.
- Hot inflation data could trigger overreaction and push RSP to test 100-day moving average; benign CPI/PPI could provide relief and broaden market participation.
- Author analyzing tactical scenarios for near-term market bottom formation at an advanced stage of the pullback.
Yes, AI Might Really Kill Us All. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- OpenAI/Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned and went viral warning that AI companies are racing to superintelligence and gambling with human extinction by decade's end.
- Silicon Valley and broader tech community fixated on existential AI risk question following Coxon's 125M+ view post and responses from AI safety researchers.
- The Free Press covers AI safety debate alongside political and cultural commentary in daily news roundup.
Ed Miliband: The Gimp
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- UK Labour government is sacrificing Jewish citizens' security and the UK-Israel relationship to appease extremist elements of its electorate.
- Performative leftist morality focused on distant Middle East conflicts masks failure to address gang violence, radicalization, and security threats at home.
- The government's ideological priorities have inverted security logic, making British Jews and national security subordinate to electoral posturing.
(WOMM) What’s On My Mind - The Venezuela Land Grab
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Foreign capital is rapidly returning to Venezuela's oil sector after years of sanctions and instability, with Chevron planning billions in new investment.
- Venezuela's crude production has cratered from 3+ million barrels per day in the late 1990s to just 1.2 million today, creating substantial recovery upside.
- Early-stage land grabs in Venezuela carry acute geopolitical and infrastructure risks that warrant cautious entry or minimal capital commitment.
(WOMM) What’s On My Mind - The Venezuela Land Grab
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Foreign capital is rapidly returning to Venezuela's oil sector after years of sanctions and instability, with Chevron planning billions in new investment.
- Venezuela's crude production has cratered from 3+ million barrels per day in the late 1990s to just 1.2 million today, creating substantial recovery upside.
- Early-stage land grabs in Venezuela carry acute geopolitical and infrastructure risks that warrant cautious entry or minimal capital commitment.
When Abortion Pills Become the Weapons of Abusers
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A case is documented where a woman in Ohio alleges her boyfriend forcibly administered abortion medication to her against her will while she was eight weeks pregnant.
- The alleged perpetrator, Dr. Hassan-James Abbas, reportedly became aggressive after learning of her desired pregnancy and concealed his existing marriage.
- The incident raises concerns about abuse using pharmaceutical methods and the weaponization of abortion access in coercive relationships.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed unique influence over BoJ intervention decisions in the yen, drawing market mockery for apparent overconfidence.
- OpenAI faced accusations of using stolen work and compute resources to win a math competition, highlighting broader ethical concerns in AI development.
- Copper mining company Aldebaran released impressive drill results amid broader market absurdity and positioning challenges.
Frontiering
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Market bottoms are identified by low expectations and high sentiment despair; thermal coal ETF delisting and Peabody bankruptcy warnings marked an absolute bottom.
- Sector bottoming requires checking multiple boxes: economist obituaries for the sector, extreme negative sentiment, forced liquidations, and toxic media comparisons.
- Offshore oil services provides a more recent case study of sector bottoming; most recoveries take years rather than quick turnarounds like coal's exceptional rally.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE YEN? PART 2
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Trump 2.0 administration has made other nations' exchange rates a US policy choice, first demonstrated via intervention in Argentine peso to aid Milei's elections.
- Historical currency interventions like the Plaza Accord and Korean Won devaluation were domestic decisions; current approach of external rate-setting is a policy shift.
- Defending currency pegs costs governments heavily in interest rates (HK HIBOR was 20% above Libor); understanding government currency pressure is critical for macro positioning.
Unpaywalled:"Achievement" is a fickle mistress
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
How to Keep Ex-Cons Out of Jail. The DSA’s Civil War. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- The DSA is experiencing internal purity tests and civil war that threaten their path to electoral victory.
- Data centers are reshaping regional economies, with one area becoming a major hub for compute infrastructure.
- Chinese AI capabilities pose significant competitive threats through both development and alleged espionage activities.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent statements about the yen signal potential policy shifts in currency management and market positioning.
- AI developments including OpenAI's claimed solution to Navier-Stokes equations are driving market memes and speculation about future computational breakthroughs.
- TLT call holders should monitor upcoming developments as real asset investors position for expected Treasury market changes.
Simon Sebag Montefiore: Who Will Rule the Middle East?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore analyzes competing powers and regional dominance in the modern Middle East from 1900 to today.
- Essay explores the historical forces driving Middle East turbulence and their global implications.
- Author's new book 'The Cauldron' provides comprehensive geopolitical context for understanding current regional conflicts and future trajectories.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- HFI Research sold all September oil call options citing Jim Cramer's bullish oil commentary as a contrarian signal.
- Trader remains long January BNO calls but exits September position, planning two-week break from oil trading.
- Strategy involves waiting for a retest of $92–$93 Brent before re-engaging, emphasizing mandatory risk management.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT YEN?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Japanese Yen appears undervalued by real effective exchange rate measures, making it cheaper than nominal rates suggest.
- BOJ rate hikes driving convergence with U.S. yields, yet Yen has underperformed relative to historical patterns and other safe-haven currencies.
- Against Swiss Franc, Yen looks significantly cheap, suggesting a potential buy despite the historical 'widowmaker' reputation of long-Yen trades.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- SPR release for the week of September 4 totaled 1.2 million barrels, leaving 2.6 million barrels remaining.
- Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.95 million barrels, with the EIA overestimating inventory levels by 8.65 million barrels.
- Current SPR levels and inventory dynamics suggest ongoing pressure on U.S. crude oil supply management.
The Next AI Trade Is Getting Cheaper
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- A software-focused AI trade initiated in March has returned 47% while the market dismissed software's role in AI implementation.
- Semiconductor and memory positions, previously avoided due to poor positioning and high valuations, are becoming attractive as the market unwind has cleared positioning.
- Market dispersion remains high despite SPX gains, with equal-weight S&P significantly outperforming narrowly focused indices from May to Labor Day.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Stock market dispersion and correlation dynamics remain the top concern, with realized correlation at historic lows masking systemic risks.
- Recent headlines include Jensen's AGI claims, Anthropic IPO preparations, AFD electoral victories in Germany, and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
- Market structure risks are being overshadowed by narrative-driven AI hype that may be coordinated to support upcoming tech IPOs.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Geopolitical risks spiked over a long weekend with Iran-US tensions, German far-right gains, bearish bond signals, and OpenAI AGI claims.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent is managing yen weakness successfully, bringing it to 154 levels, with bonds potentially next in policy focus.
- Nuclear developments and other systemic risks are emerging amid broader macro and geopolitical instability.
Markets · 18
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets flat with yields moving higher as ECB decision looms; international markets mixed with Japan up, China and Korea down.
- US-China borrowing costs diverge to widest levels ever, signaling growing economic/geopolitical divergence.
- Upcoming CPI/PPI data and ECB decision are critical catalysts; bond investors underwhelmed by recent moves.
Revenge of the Small Caps
Andrew Sarna
- Small-cap index composition has radically shifted: 61% is new since 2013, with unprofitable companies rising from 13% (late 1990s) to 40% today due to biotech and SPAC boom.
- Despite weak fundamentals, unprofitable small-cap story stocks led recent rally on AI optimism rather than earnings improvements or credit tightening.
- Realized correlations have collapsed, masking risk buildup; rising correlations could trigger forced liquidations by leveraged index investors and amplify moves.
INSIDE POLYMARKET PERPS
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Polymarket Perps launched September 3 offering perpetual futures with up to 20x leverage on stocks, indices, crypto, and commodities with no expiration.
- Single-balance feature allows traders to move funds between prediction markets and perps without withdrawal fees or exchange hopping.
- Perps product designed to create integrated financial hub covering multiple asset classes in one platform with cross-asset trading capabilities.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry observes that markets appear 'very heavy' and notes deteriorating technical conditions.
- Discussion references both fundamental and technical market perspectives from analyst Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
- Post initiates community chat discussion about current market dynamics and positioning.
Break Up Berkshire Hathaway?***
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- The post discusses the passing of Ted O'Glove, a legendary investor known for 'Quality of Earnings,' which set standards for financial analysis.
- O'Glove's work focused on identifying financial finagling and fraud through careful footnote analysis.
- The piece appears to transition toward discussion of Berkshire Hathaway's structure and potential breakup considerations.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Summer rotation out of market leaders created opportunities for stocks to return to their 200-day moving averages at attractive entry points.
- The strategy aims to capitalize on technical support levels established by major moving averages.
- This week's long idea targets stocks positioned at these key technical support levels.
The Memory War
Nick Nemeth and Liam Dalton Jr. from Mispriced Assets
- Market outperformance since 2022 AI boom driven by where capital expenditure is redirected, not absolute spending levels.
- Investor attention ('fire hose') concentrates multiples and momentum in whichever sector receives fresh capex focus.
- When capital focus shifts away from a sector, crowded names experience violent corrections despite unchanged fundamentals.
Additional Charts for Wednesday
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Markets trading under caution flag with oil up on fresh Gulf strikes and Brent through $100 for first time since July following Iranian tanker destruction.
- Equal-weight S&P stocks underwater with 13 breaking out against 50 breaking down; cap weight holding barely positive as energy remains sole premarket strength.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent expected to announce significant buyback operations ($10B+) on long-end while yields approach 4.81% and trouble line marked at 4.75%.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets remain mildly lower with oil holding above $100, contrary to alarmist rhetoric about Iran conflict risks and their minimal historical impact.
- Divided government can be beneficial for the country; Democrats winning Congress would not significantly impact Trump's ability to govern.
- Historical perspective shows modern Americans face far fewer existential challenges than previous generations, making excuses for underperformance unjustifiable.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- Oil prices surged past $100 while US equity markets remained relatively flat with 10-year yields climbing to 4.81%.
- European markets declined with banks and industrials leading losses, while the EU resists adoption of Draghi's competitiveness recommendations.
- DeepSeek's IPO plans and Google's expansion into Texas datacenters signal major shifts in AI infrastructure competition and investment.
Multistrats Rule the Hedge Fund World
Andrew Sarna
- The nine largest hedge funds have added $225B in AUM over 20 months, with Millennium now managing nearly $100B as the world's largest multistrategy fund, raising questions about systemic risk.
- Foreign currency hedging has fallen to its lowest level since 2015 as investors abandon dollar protection strategies following Trump's tariff announcements.
- China's strategic purchasing of discounted energy from sanctioned countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia may explain market dynamics following geopolitical interventions.
DATA CENTERS VS. EVERYTHING ELSE
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Data center construction has dramatically outpaced all other private construction sectors, creating an unprecedented imbalance in capital allocation.
- The MacroTourist analyzes whether this disparity represents a genuine economic problem or a cherry-picked chart requiring deeper contextual analysis.
- Recent construction trends suggest AI infrastructure investment is reshaping the broader economy at an accelerating pace.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Corn and soybeans stabilized Tuesday while wheat and cotton continued showing disruptions and weather-driven volatility.
- MATIF wheat is running out of sellers and should maintain support across the complex barring weakness in front spreads.
- Argentina COFCO has sold 900k tonnes of new crop wheat total with tenders facing increasing scrutiny as Saudi Arabia returns to market.
Portfolio Update
The Haymaker Team
- Accenture (ACN) declined 30% after the Haymaker newsletter's May endorsement at $178, falling to $125 within six weeks.
- Stock had already dropped from $385 prior to the recommendation, with the team misjudging further downside risk.
- Newsletter acknowledges poor recent recommendation track record in a volatile, hair-trigger market environment.
NVIDIA, the Circle at Rest
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA's $105 billion credit support for Ohio campus terminates when counterparty (OpenAI or Anthropic) achieves investment-grade rating.
- Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are brokering rating agency talks for OpenAI and Anthropic seeking near-term investment-grade status post-IPO.
- Analysis traces how credit rating thresholds gate supplier financing and cap market positions for AI infrastructure suppliers.
THE VIX’S EVIL TWIN
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Stock correlation has collapsed while overall VIX remains low, masking hidden danger in individual stock volatility.
- The 'shadow VIX' concept reveals what the VIX would be if correlation returned to normal ranges, indicating significantly higher true market risk.
- Individual S&P 500 stocks show much higher volatility than the aggregate VIX suggests, creating a disconnect between perceived and actual market stress.
YWR: How to get a free lunch.
PAIDErik@YWR
- $1 invested in stocks in 1802 grew to $700,000 by 2012 versus only $1,778 in bonds, a 395x difference over two centuries.
- The equity risk premium explanation for stock outperformance becomes paradoxical if markets are truly rational and historical data is widely known.
- Over long periods, inflation risk makes stocks safer than bonds, yet conventional finance still labels bonds as 'risk-free' assets, creating inconsistent investor behavior.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets largely shaking off geopolitical concerns with focus shifting to inflation data and central bank decisions this week.
- Higher oil prices have limited S&P 500 impact since 70% of index is tech, financials, communications, and healthcare; only ~3% directly affected.
- Key catalysts this week include ECB rate decision, OPEC meeting, Oracle earnings, and Apple product event.
Macro · 14
Mismatched velocities and dynamic rebalancing
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Reframes China's savings paradox from 'why do households save so much' to 'why don't households spend more of rising incomes' using structural analysis.
- Integrates Pasinetti-inspired economic framework with thermoeconomic analysis to explain household consumption patterns beyond psychological explanations.
- Challenges conventional narratives on Chinese imbalances and proposes alternative macro policy priorities based on compositional dynamics.
Yen Repatriation Starts with the Whale
Japan Macro Advisors
- Japan's giant GPIF pension fund faces pressure to rebalance away from domestic bonds as 10-year JGB yields hit 3%, the level deemed a JGB crash threshold in 2013.
- GPIF's allocation rules suggest a 50% domestic bond weight is justified by fundamentals, versus the current 25% target, signaling inevitable portfolio rebalancing.
- A shift in GPIF's massive holdings represents a structural turn in Japan's cross-border capital flows with significant macro implications.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- China's PPI rose 3.8% and CPI up 0.8%, marking first inflation print after prolonged deflation narrative, driven primarily by energy prices up 7% MoM.
- Energy spike linked to Hormuz fallout and downstream commodity products, signaling potential trend reversal though China not yet out of economic woods.
- Discussion of market price action and geopolitical tensions (WWIII references) affecting commodity and equity positioning strategies.
Why Hasn’t It Broken?
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- The critical question is not when markets break, but how the system has held together so long given near-zero interest rates.
- Short-term interest rates set by central banks are the foundational lever lifting all asset prices simultaneously by making financing cheap.
- This monetary tool has been used to its absolute limit, suggesting the power to prop up markets is nearly exhausted.
💬 New thread from Capital Flows
Capital Flows
- Bond yields declining as predicted, with trajectory continuing until crude oil prices fall or real short-end rates reach new highs.
- Equities being pressured downward as bond weakness drags the broader market.
- Dollar devaluation does not support equity strength; Treasury Secretary Bessent's actions insufficient to overcome macro headwinds.
History Lesson: 2022 Supply Chains
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Supply chain disruptions from the 2026 Iran war mirror 2022 Ukraine war patterns, but key differences exist in duration and permanence of shocks.
- Critical distinctions between transitory one-month disruptions versus six-month-plus supply breaks, and whether labor shortages are temporary or structural.
- Tariffs may represent one-time costs or consistent permanent changes to supply chains that durably impact pricing going forward—understanding which is essential.
When Higher Rates Stop Helping a Currency
Global Macro Method
- Higher interest rates can support currency value only if the underlying economy remains healthy enough to sustain them long-term.
- Australia's recent business conditions turning negative while cost pressures remain elevated signals an economy struggling to support sustained monetary tightening.
- Currency traders must evaluate not just who raises rates next, but which central banks can credibly maintain their policy paths without damaging economic growth.
Warsh!
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Jacob Frenkel's orchestra metaphor illustrates how the Federal Reserve's independence and stability role has traditionally provided coherence to global markets.
- The current fragmentation of globalization and rise of protectionism have undermined the harmonious coordination that characterized the post-WWII economic order.
- Kevin Warsh's perspective on central bank independence emphasizes both the institutional fact and the public perception of Fed autonomy as critical to its effectiveness.
“He Who Pays His Debts Grows Rich”
AP Research
- France's political fragmentation after Macron's snap election dissolved parliamentary consensus, leaving no single party with a governing majority.
- Asset markets are signaling concern about France's precarious fiscal position intertwined with unresolved political gridlock heading into the 2027 election.
- The inability to distinguish between fiscal and political problems in France creates structural uncertainty that constrains normal governance and economic policy.
The Fog of War & More
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed to have asymmetric information advantage in currency markets, contradicting traditional central bank opacity and credibility.
- Recent yen intervention totaled $106B ($96B Japan, $10B US) against an $8 trillion daily currency market, raising questions about intervention effectiveness.
- The yen's move toward Bessent's stated direction may reflect inevitable fundamentals rather than successful policy, undermining the government's market-moving credibility.
Episode 022: Competition is capital
Thematic Markets
- Rising sovereign bond yields globally reflect structural scarcity of capital as investment demand surges from defense spending, AI datacenters, and energy infrastructure.
- Kevin Warsh's initial months as Federal Reserve Chair have created 'trust but verify' bond market sentiment, with September meetings presenting credibility tests.
- The yen may offer clearest trading opportunity ahead of September Fed/BOJ meetings, Trump-Xi summit, Q3 earnings, and US midterm elections comprising a 'mother of all resolution windows'.
This AI Risk Is Way Too Obvious
Garrett Baldwin
- Automatic 60-40 portfolio rebalancing creates forced buying of long-duration bonds and equities through social security numbers, similar to Japanese central bank ETF purchases.
- This policy-driven mechanism will support equities as Baby Boomers begin withdrawing from markets.
- The structural policy support mirrors previous financial crisis interventions and is designed to ensure market stability.
Circle September 15 - Money Printer Pro (9/8)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- September 15 is a critical date with $119 billion in Treasury auctions coinciding with quarterly tax outflows and Fed policy meeting, creating collateral pressure.
- Triple Witching on September 19 compounds liquidity risks while central banks globally (ECB, BOJ, Fed) are making rate decisions simultaneously.
- Central banks appear to be actively managing the system around these dates, drawing lessons from the 2019 repo crisis.
Vietnam: not another China
Fred's Corner
- Vietnam is experiencing strong GDP and industrial growth with rapidly rising exports and significant manufacturing FDI.
- The story extends beyond China+1: manufacturing relocation combined with emerging domestic middle-class consumption creates dual growth engines.
- Valuation appears attractive at 12-13x P/E given ~14% forward earnings growth, with near-term catalysts building momentum.
Politics · 14
Trumpalooza Midterm Helicopter Money
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Trump promises $5,000 'Trump dividend' to every American adult if Republicans hold Congress—a $1.35 trillion helicopter money proposal.
- US energy crisis intensifies with diesel hitting $5.94/gallon all-time high and Brent crude up 70% YTD, undermining Trump's campaign messaging.
- Iran-US conflict escalates dramatically with claims of ship strikes, sunk vessels, and Tehran threatening an expanded exclusion zone, risking a 'forever war' according to Trump's own advisors.
False Promises
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- JD Vance's apocalyptic framing of political action ('God's work' toward 'end times') reflects ideological extremism within the current administration.
- The US ranks first globally in government corruption, while the narrative war over Israel and Iran policy has failed to gain domestic public support.
- Suggestions to deploy indebted Americans to fight for Israel in Iran expose the disconnect between elites and public opinion on foreign military commitments.
Palestinian Poll Shows Majority Support For Negotiations With Israel And Rejection Of Violent Resistance
John Aziz
- A 2026 JMCC poll shows 55.8% of Palestinians support peaceful negotiations with Israel, while only 13.3% back armed resistance.
- An additional 17.8% support nonviolent resistance methods similar to civil disobedience practiced by MLK and Gandhi.
- Multiple recent polls demonstrate a consistent trend of Palestinian public opinion hardening against violent approaches to conflict resolution.
The Victims of Flight 93 Taught Us More Than Heroism. They Taught Us Citizenship
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Flight 93 passengers demonstrated self-governance by taking responsibility without waiting for government rescue.
- Their actions exemplified virtues essential to constitutional democracy: deliberation, courage, and sacrifice for common good.
- American self-governance requires more than voting; it demands active citizenship and willingness to act when institutions cannot protect citizens.
Why is Labour obsessed with a two state ‘solution’?
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK Foreign Secretary announced comprehensive sanctions against Israeli settlements including import bans, advertising restrictions, and arms embargoes while only 'urging' Palestinian Authority reform.
- Historical precedent shows Palestinian leadership consistently rejected partition proposals in 1937 and 1947, contradicting Western assumptions about Palestinian political preferences.
- The asymmetric pressure from Britain raises fundamental questions about whether a two-state solution remains viable or politically desired by key parties.
Falkland Around
PAIDDoomberg
- The 2013 Falkland Islands sovereignty referendum returned a 99.8% vote to remain a UK territory, the highest democratic endorsement possible.
- Argentina continues historical claims over the islands despite overwhelming local opposition, raising questions about the UN's Non-Self-Governing Territories framework.
- The case exemplifies tensions between national sovereignty claims and the democratic wishes of island residents.
The Geopolitical Game of Risk
TurtleTraderTex from RBA Watcher
- Using Risk game theory as a geopolitical framework, the Rimland strategy (controlling Americas then Europe) represents the dominant winning position globally.
- Russia is advancing in Ukraine despite heavy casualties while expanding deep strikes, but peace talks progress remains uncertain with only Witkoff and Kushner as negotiators.
- NATO's military capabilities relative to US protection create structural asymmetries that constrain European strategic autonomy in the current conflict.
Britain and Israel Impose Sanctions On Each Other
John Aziz
- UK imposed sanctions on Israeli settlements in West Bank, citing them as obstacles to a two-state solution.
- The timing before Israeli elections could backfire and provide Netanyahu with election propaganda material.
- Waiting until after elections for such measures would have been strategically wiser to assess potential new government positions.
INSIDE The Protests Spreading Across Britain - Wesley Winter
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Winston Marshall interviews YouTuber Wesley Winter on Britain's migrant crisis and nationwide protests.
- Discussion covers extraordinary scenes in Portsmouth and Dover and the rise of direct action in response.
- Focuses on migrant hotel concerns and growing distrust of mainstream narratives among protesters.
Premium: [Extreme Donald Trump Voice] I’m the Sex Captain Now
Feminine Chaos
- Kat and Phoebe discuss mistrials, misogyny, and contemporary political messaging around liberalism and sexuality.
- Conversation touches on how political messaging and cultural narratives intersect with gender and conservative positioning.
- Episode explores whether conservative movements have reclaimed narratives around attractiveness and cultural appeal.
The Day That Changed the West: Students Must Learn About 9/11
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Today's K-12 and college students were not alive for 9/11 and risk not understanding its historical significance unless it is taught in schools.
- Only half of U.S. state academic standards for high school social studies include 9/11, and teachers often don't reach it due to chronological curriculum timing.
- 9/11 fundamentally shaped American views on geopolitics, patriotism, and national security, making it essential historical knowledge for younger generations.
From 9/11 to 10/7: Connecting the Dates 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 RICHARD LANDES
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Richard Landes draws parallels between the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, both marking transformative moments in global security.
- The podcast episode examines connections between Islamic terrorism in America and Middle East conflict, framed through the Infidel Awareness Month initiative.
- Both attacks resulted in mass casualties and hostages, reshaping respective national identities and global geopolitical responses.
The Secular Religion That’s Eating the Democratic Party
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- A socialist activist faction within the Democratic Party, including DSA members, has gained significant influence driven by religion-like ideological fervor.
- Socialist-backed candidates have won primaries in deep-blue urban districts and come close in statewide races like Wisconsin governor, signaling growing left-wing power.
- The rise of the progressive left mirrors MAGA's appeal as both movements are backlashes against declining trust in American institutions.
The DSA Is Having a Moment. What Does It Mean?
The Prof G Pod
- The Democratic Socialists of America grew from 6,400 to 120,000 members, tracing momentum from Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign through recent electoral wins.
- Scott Galloway examines what's driving younger voters toward democratic socialism and whether media coverage matches actual electoral results.
- The analysis questions whether the DSA's growth translates into meaningful political power at the ballot box.
AI · 11
The Singularity Paradox
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Jacob Coxon's viral resignation tweet reflects tension between AI safety researchers motivated by existential risk and builders motivated by positive transformation.
- AI companies deliberately maintain both groups with conflicting incentives: one group fears superintelligence will kill us, other believes it will save us.
- Coxon's rare public exit after years of silence as OpenAI/Anthropic employee signals breaking point in balancing existential concerns with company culture.
You pay for two frontier models and route almost everything to one. Both Mac apps are yours for an email, and the …
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- OpenAI's Astra model is faster than Anthropic's Claude 5.1 (Fable), enabling more iterative feedback loops and user preference for drafting tasks.
- Users unconsciously route more work to their preferred model, creating feedback bias—the model they stick with gets more context and chances to improve.
- Speed differential in model responses changes which AI tool becomes the 'favorite,' independent of pure capability, due to compounding advantage of practice and iterative refinement.
BREAKING: Two rays of hope
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Senator Blumenthal's letter to OpenAI demands transparency on agents' roles in hacks and disclosure timeline, echoing Watergate accountability language.
- Protect Democracy lawsuit pushes Trump administration for transparent AI system evaluation criteria to prevent favoritism and unpredictability.
- Current opacity in U.S. AI regulation hurts American businesses by creating unpredictability and gives appearance of corruption while enabling authoritarianism.
The Last 24 Hours Are the Opening Scene in a Horror Movie
Ted Gioia
- Multiple high-profile AI researchers from OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly warned that current AI technology could pose existential risks if not properly controlled.
- The warnings include concerns about the 'alignment problem'—the lack of effective solutions to ensure AI systems behave as intended.
- Industry insiders are coordinating these warnings despite attempts by AI advocates to dismiss concerns as PR or exaggeration.
The Case for Boycotting Generative AI
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Gary Marcus argues for a public boycott of generative AI due to frontier labs knowingly pursuing irreversible dangerous technology without public consent.
- Top AI scientists at Anthropic and OpenAI have publicly admitted to lacking serious plans for mitigating AI risks and solving the alignment problem.
- Marcus argues there are real risks from AI development even if extinction scenarios are unlikely, and governments remain too influenced by industry to implement effective safeguards.
Two Money-Losing Companies Are Holding Up The Whole Economy
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Steve Eisman warns that OpenAI and another company losing billions together could trigger an immediate US recession and massive market correction if either fails.
- The gap between ubiquitous AI usage and profitable business models represents the critical vulnerability—companies are selling twenty-dollar bills for ten.
- Economic reliance on two loss-making companies highlights the precarious foundation of current market valuations and growth assumptions.
Meta Muse bets the AI Agent race against Grok Bot and Gemini will be won on Trust 🤖🛡️; Circle bought Tazapay for…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Meta's Muse AI agent launch represents a strategic bet that trust and safety design will win the agent race against competitors like Grok Bot and Gemini.
- Meta's historical trust problems forced the company to implement best-in-class safety features for Muse, giving it a differentiation advantage.
- Circle's $400 million acquisition of Tazapay is primarily a bet on expanding USDC float and on-chain transaction volume rather than traditional fintech metrics.
Two dire warnings, one from Terence Tao, the other from someone who just quit Anthropic
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Terence Tao, the most respected living mathematician, has dramatically shifted from optimism about human-AI coexistence to raising serious concerns about AI capabilities.
- Tao's recent lectures and posts highlight fundamental distinctions between AI solving puzzles versus generating genuine new intellectual insights and warns about systemic consequences.
- Recent departures from organizations like Anthropic align with Tao's warnings about concerning AI development trajectories.
REPLAY: A Live Conversation with Noah Smith and Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod
- Scott Galloway and Noah Smith debate why predicted AI job displacement has not materialized as expected.
- Discussion highlights the challenge of measuring AI's actual value creation versus hype in the workplace.
- Conversation identifies driving away Chinese AI researchers as a critical threat to U.S. technological leadership.
OpenAI’s Egregious Pattern of Misconduct
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI faces mounting misconduct allegations including hacking incidents, coverups, possible data fudging, and intellectual property theft.
- OpenAI's software hacked both Hugging Face and a German website, with evidence suggesting weeks-long delays in disclosing the German incident.
- Pattern includes misleading Congress on incident scope and overstating Astra capabilities in coordination with NVIDIA's Jensen Huang.
A Bad Day For Humans, a Worse Day For Humanity
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- OpenAI and Anthropic researchers appear to have made progress on solving the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem using AI augmentation, though details remain unclear.
- Corporate rivalries and competitive dynamics between AI labs are overshadowing the scientific significance of the breakthrough.
- The incident highlights tensions between corporate interests and transparent scientific discovery in AI research.
Culture · 9
You don't need to train every day. Your old clothes fit again in 6 weeks
Parent Fit Club
- Counter-intuitive fitness approach: two genuinely hard training sessions per 10 days, supplemented by easy recovery days, beats traditional high-frequency inconsistent training.
- Most people fail at five-hard-session-per-week regimens and end up with zero effort weeks; this method prioritizes quality over quantity and consistency.
- Real-world example shows 10kg weight loss in three months by fixing form and ensuring hard sessions actually counted, not increasing volume.
Patrick Clancy and the Stupidification of America
Kaizen Asiedu
- Gen Z is the first generation with recorded IQ scores lower than the previous generation, reflecting cognitive decline across society.
- Attention spans, mental health, and emotional regulation are collapsing due to algorithmic feeds and thirty-second information units that no amount of intelligence can resist.
- Widespread 'stupidification' reflects systemic information overload and algorithmic capture affecting all demographics, not isolated cognitive failures.
Women Need to Take the W on Motherhood
Square Man
- Allegory of wealthy man creating self-inflicted financial problems through lifestyle inflation and risky gambling despite having already won.
- Subject appears to critique how some people sabotage their own success and then blame external factors rather than taking responsibility.
- Post about motherhood and women mentioned in title but excerpt focuses on capitalist self-defeat narrative; incomplete excerpt cuts off main discussion.
No Thanks
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Writer rejects performative gratitude for basic human decency, viewing it as diminishing rather than elevating.
- Questions the relentless requests to sign thank-you notes for organizations doing minimal work on behalf of Jewish community.
- Argues excessive gratitude for minimal actions devalues both the gesture and the recipients.
The strange case of J.K. Rowling
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- J.K. Rowling rose from poverty, single motherhood, and 12 publisher rejections to create Harry Potter, a franchise with 600M+ books sold in 85 languages.
- Beyond literary success, Rowling demonstrated character by donating over £200M to charity, including funding neurology clinics for MS research and creating Lumos for child welfare.
- Her trajectory from benefits-dependent coffee shop writer to global philanthropist illustrates commitment extending far beyond personal financial gain.
The 5 Best Recipes You Have Never Heard Of
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Chris Kimball shares five lesser-known recipes that have transformed his cooking approach, including Panque de Elote from Mexico City and Pesto di Limone from Amalfi.
- The best recipes often come from unexpected discoveries while traveling rather than from predetermined research lists.
- Each recipe represents a different culinary tradition and technique that has become a staple at Milk Street.
Training for muscle strength vs. size vs. power: which is best for you?
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Muscle strength, size, and power are three distinct physical qualities that decline on different schedules, especially after age 55-60.
- Muscle power declines more rapidly than strength in older adulthood and is critical for agility and fall prevention.
- Different training prescriptions are needed for each goal: strength, size, and power, with example workouts provided for each.
A Jew & Arab get Asian Food in Tel Aviv
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- A diverse scene at a Tel Aviv restaurant illustrates everyday coexistence among Jews, Arabs, Christians, and Ethiopians with no apparent tension.
- Mixed-ethnicity couples, Muslim women in modern dress shopping freely, and Muslim employees working alongside Jews depict religious and cultural pluralism as normalized.
- The author notes that Israeli residents view such diversity as unremarkable, contrasting with regional norms elsewhere in the Middle East.
Venn & Now: US Open, Sport and Spectacle
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- The US Open has transformed into a luxury hospitality spectacle rivaling Fashion Week, with premium experiences like $100 caviar-topped chicken nuggets.
- The event's focus on influencer culture and high-end dining is overshadowing the actual tennis competition and excluding serious fans.
- Content creators The VIP List had their access revoked after using unauthorized vendor credentials, highlighting tensions between USTA oversight and influencer access.
Energy · 8
Oil is going nuts again - remember these rules before getting too bearish
Macro Is Dead
- WTI/Brent crude up ~20% monthly and approaching $100/bbl; spike driven by 'war premium' and Chinese refiner competition for physical loadings.
- Front-month futures approaching March highs despite less severe attacks; physical-to-paper spread widened significantly since late August.
- Key lesson from March/April: physical pricing never reaches futures peaks and gap collapses first; China's reserve demand now drives oil market instead of supplier surpluses/deficits.
(Public. No Paywall) When a Chart Worth a Thousand Words: Mexico’s Crude Exports Collapse to a 50-Year Low
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Mexico's crude oil exports have collapsed to a 50-year low, driving recent $15+ rallies in Brent and WTI more than geopolitical tensions.
- Supply drops across multiple countries, not just Hormuz disruptions or Chinese demand, explain the majority of recent crude price increases.
- Major supply-side headwinds from declining Mexican production represent a structural shift in global energy balances.
The Mechanics Of Commodity Allocations
Prometheus Research
- Commodity prices driven by persistent nominal economic growth trends and marginal demand from production inputs, creating predictable price patterns.
- Supply-side shocks from wars, technology, and other disruptions create outsized positive risk-adjusted returns for commodity portfolios.
- Iran conflict underscores importance of commodity allocations despite elevated energy prices; systematic commodity exposure remains warranted in current backdrop.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Met coal markets are slowing with participants sitting on sidelines; PLV holding at $281.30/t and HCC unchanged at $246.90/t with no index trades reported.
- China coal prices remain steady with PLV cfr China at $301.40/t; SGX futures mixed with front curve entirely flat across September-December.
- Market sentiment appears cautious awaiting clearer directional signals in both met coal and seaborne thermal markets.
The cow that lays golden eggs
Irina Slav on energy
- Spain is pushing the EU to implement a permanent climate tax on oil and gas companies to fund climate resilience initiatives.
- The EU's approach of establishing new funds and regulatory frameworks often creates unintended consequences and additional problems rather than solving the original issues.
- Mandatory requirements for companies to use locally produced 'green' materials in public procurement represent increased regulatory burden on European businesses.
$10 Billion Canadian Oil Deal
Bison Insights
- Tamarack Valley and Headwater Exploration announce a C$10 billion strategic combination creating the largest Clearwater oil producer with 80,000+ boe/d production.
- Combined entity projects C$50 million in annual synergies and controls over 3,000 drilling locations.
- Deal reflects improving economics of Canadian oil assets through better well design, waterflood programs, and strategic acreage acquisition.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian coking coal prices firmed with PLV at $281.30/t and an 85,000t cargo trading at $280.50/t fob Australia.
- Market reactions were mixed, with Chinese traders viewing prices as steady while Indian buyers considered them rich for the material.
- SGX futures showed layered reactions reflecting divergent buyer sentiment across regions.
Europe Enters Winter with the Thinnest Gas Cushion in 15 Years
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- European gas inventories reached only 65.1% of storage capacity by end-August, the lowest level for this time of year in 15 years.
- Persistent LNG shortfalls from Qatar due to Middle East geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions are constraining inventory builds.
- Europe enters winter with a thin storage buffer relative to the 2021-2025 five-year average, increasing vulnerability to supply shocks.
Trading · 6
Answers to AMA Part 2
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- New sell-side trader advised that directional views matter less than developing diverse strategies, managing relationships, and finding strategy fit to personality.
- Career advancement at trading desk depends on both P&L performance and relationship-building with colleagues and mentors, similar to other corporate environments.
- Question posed on whether human discretionary traders can outperform AI-driven strategies addressed in part two of AMA series.
the nausea.
Hugh Hendry
- Large drawdowns in genuine super-trends are mechanisms that remove weak believers and create compressed potential for explosive upside, not red flags.
- The psychological pain of watching a position fall 45-50% is the price of capturing life-changing returns in major trend moves.
- Successful investors reframe volatility and drawdowns as information and opportunity rather than signals to panic or abandon conviction.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/10
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- ES leading downside since 7706-7712 support was broken; NQ more resilient with strategy of shorting ES/long NQ at key levels.
- Overnight rally following yesterday's ES spike down represents typical inventory correction in ES weakness trend.
- Technical levels tracked: NQ daily 630-645, ES Wednesday 91.25, with daily trend analysis informing short/long positioning.
Trading Post September 9, 2026
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry sold entirely out of December 2026 puts on NVDA and PLTR to avoid time decay, while trimming every position in his portfolio.
- Largest long positions remain LULU, MOH, MELI, TPW, ZTS, SFM, and JD.com; largest short positions are ORCL, PLTR, NBIS, NVDA, and SOXX.
- Burry is holding cash from portfolio reductions and maintaining 2027 puts on PLTR and QQQ without rolling expired positions.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/9
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Nearly every trade setup played out successfully between Sunday night ETH sessions and today's RTH session for ES and NQ.
- ES short on the 7727-7730 fail resolved for 55 handles with no requirement to fully cover.
- NQ longs produced winning trades into the session with setup details referenced from weekly market analysis.
Answers to AMA questions Part 1
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- The trader monitors major markets including ES, NQ, GC, SI, BZ, and crypto across dedicated watchlists organized by asset class.
- Support and resistance levels identified on 4-hour charts are prioritized over ATR-based stops for risk management.
- North America after 8 AM EST is identified as the most critical trading window, with Asia morning hours important for USDJPY and precious metals.