★ Priority · 17
uncovering the laws of nature
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Taleb's lecture discusses the difficulty in grasping dynamics and stochastic processes, particularly in understanding geopolitical and historical trends.
- Growth differentials compound over time and errors from ignoring them can be massive when projecting future states.
- Option traders develop intuitive comprehension of random processes that can inform broader understanding of world dynamics and unpredictability.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- South Korea banned new single-stock leveraged ETF listings and will triple minimum deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs effective August 5.
- The Bank of Korea raised rates in its first hike since January 2023, citing 3.2% June CPI driven by AI and chip-boom structural demand.
- Receding liquidity in the Korean market combined with poor global equity seasonality in August could create a negative backdrop for markets.
In Defense of Data Centers. The Vulgar Questions About Lindsey Graham. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- New York became the first state to ban new data center construction, with Governor Hochul implementing a yearlong moratorium citing power supply and energy cost concerns.
- Data center construction is facing political headwinds despite being essential infrastructure for the AI revolution, with public opinion polls showing opposition.
- Venture capitalists argue that data centers enable AI technology that democratizes advanced capabilities to people with below-average means, but infrastructure barriers threaten this outcome.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Market dispersion dominant with momentum severely hurt, semis declining as levered ETFs beginning to blow up.
- Lucid 2x levered fund imploded Tuesday after -60% intraday stock decline on restructuring speculation, experiencing 'Volmaggeddon' scenario.
- Korean Financial Services Commission temporarily halts listings of new single stock levered ETFs.
- Tape described as sloppy with structural risks emerging in leveraged derivative products.
(Idea) Occidental Petroleum - Recent Deleveraging Strengthens The Investment Case
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Occidental Petroleum's description as heavily indebted company becoming obsolete as long-term debt fell to $13.3B from $28.9B peak.
- At mid-$70+ oil prices, OXY should reach $10B debt target within months, accelerating timeline for larger buybacks and dividend increases.
- Market pricing orderly Strait of Hormuz reopening and quick risk premium disappearance, an assumption the analysis deems too complacent.
- OXY valued as one of cheapest large-cap names despite strengthened balance sheet and improved investment case.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SK Hynix ADR listing presents arbitrage opportunity with significant premium to South Korean shares due to conversion restrictions until July 29.
- BABA September $120 calls up 5x with partial profits taken; CCXI SPAC merger with Agility Robotics showing strong gains from $12.50 entry.
- Portfolio highlights profitable trades across semiconductor and robotics sectors with disciplined profit-taking strategies.
The Death of History
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Algorithms and AI are fundamentally changing how antisemitism spreads by prioritizing spectacle over truth, making traditional historical refutation ineffective.
- Modern technology enables Holocaust denial and hateful myths to reach mainstream audiences faster than historians can debunk them.
- Historians have lost the battle against technologically-amplified antisemitism and must acknowledge the limits of truth-based responses in the algorithmic age.
In-Fungibility
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SK Hynix ADR trades at +35% premium to South Korean shares due to closed conversion mechanism, creating textbook arbitrage opportunity opening July 29.
- US ADR currently trades at all-time highs in USD equivalent despite 30% correction in South Korean shares, reflecting artificial pricing inefficiency.
- Arbitrage mechanism allows purchase of Korean shares, conversion to US ADRs, and sale to capture the premium spread once two-way conversion opens.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trump's 'Aya-toll' alternative (Gulf State investments in the US) is replacing explicit tolls on Hormuz but still faces cheaper geopolitical alternatives.
- Weak dollar trades like Platinum and Brazil maintained gains despite oil strength, while Alibaba (BABA) surged 4% on Apple's approval to integrate BABA's Qwen AI into iPhones in China.
- Chinese AI dominance efforts are undercutting Western AI infrastructure CAPEX with cheaper models and chips, while Pentagon scrutiny continues on Chinese tech companies.
the iron butterfly
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Matthew Clifford argues modernity represented variance reduction through institutions, while the internet is a 'variance amplifying' force that selects and amplifies outliers.
- The post uses this framework to explore options trading strategies, specifically the iron butterfly, in the context of market dynamics.
- Modern technology and decentralized systems create opportunities for ambitious people outside traditional institutional tracks.
Death by Telehealth. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Investigation into death of 26-year-old dental student Conor Hylton found no physician examined him at ICU bedside during four-hour period before cardiac arrest.
- Post explores rise of tele-ICU model where critically ill patients monitored remotely from command centers sometimes hundreds of miles away.
- Article examines consequences of telehealth transformation in critical care alongside other current events and cultural topics.
Why the Left Hates the Medicine That Made Me a Mom
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Restorative reproductive medicine, pioneered by Catholic surgeons as an alternative to IVF, successfully helped one writer conceive but is characterized in mainstream outlets as conservative quackery.
- The New York Times and left-leaning media have misrepresented this medical approach, potentially deterring patients from seeking treatments that could work regardless of religious affiliation.
- Politicizing medical treatments limits access and creates barriers for people who might benefit, regardless of their personal religious beliefs or background.
Slutmaxxing
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Gen Z influencer Clavicular (Braden Peters) visited Israel promoting misogynistic content and extreme physical self-modification trends.
- Peters associates with far-right figures including Andrew Tate-style content, neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes, and antisemitic material.
- Article critiques the normalization of degrading content among young audiences and questions sponsor/donor decisions enabling such behavior.
MEMORY AND WAFER UPDATE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Memory stock volatility driven by leveraged ETFs (3x bull Korea funds, Micron funds) far exceeds underlying DRAM price moves, creating difficult holding periods.
- Memory makers requiring production expansion will need wafer supply, creating opportunity for wafer stock beneficiaries like GlobalWafers (up 300% since April).
- Pure-play wafer makers Siltronics and Sumco trade at significant discounts to GlobalWafers despite similar leverage opportunity to semiconductor supply cycle.
I Have Started Buying Protection
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Index volatility masks severe internal market stress with semis rallying while software crashes and individual stocks moving sharply independent of broad benchmarks.
- Historic low implied correlation suggests options market underpricing correlation tail risk; if all trades move together simultaneously, typical 1-2% moves could escalate.
- Summer liquidity, high leverage ETF flows, and systematic sellers could turn ordinary market moves into 5-10% air pockets once correlation reverses.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Core CPI fell to 0% versus 0.2% estimate, marking the first inflation decline since 2020 after aggressive Fed tightening.
- Weak dollar trades in Brazil (near-tied presidential election) and platinum show relative strength despite rising oil prices.
- Fed officials like Warsh and Waller appear vindicated in hawkish positioning as inflation success provides credibility cover.
Time for Japan to adopt a Strong Yen policy
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- The US established a 'strong dollar policy' in 1995 under Treasury Secretary Rubin to address trade imbalances and currency weakness.
- Japan should consider adopting a similar strong yen policy given current economic conditions and currency dynamics.
- Currency policy has been used historically as a tool to address trade imbalances alongside tariffs and market access measures.
Markets · 18
Groupon Built a Brain
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Groupon is developing an AI 'Brain' that personalizes the app for each user, with the relaunch shipping in Q3.
- The key to Groupon's turnaround is increasing user frequency rather than acquiring new users, which the AI Brain aims to achieve.
- In an inflationary economy dominated by megacorps, Groupon remains one of the few channels where small businesses can acquire new customers without gambling on creative advertising.
The LatAm Yield: How to Buy the LatAm HY Market
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- LatAm fixed income offers high yields with limited downside due to strong real interest rates and robust rate differentials against the dollar.
- Healthy balance sheets at corporate and sovereign levels in Latin America limit downside risk while providing attractive yield per unit of risk.
- Retail investors face barriers to entry in LatAm high-yield markets, but there are four 'backdoors' available to gain access to these opportunities.
A Closer Look at Private Equity
Andrew Sarna
- Private equity has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 and 10 years, raising questions about the illiquidity premium.
- The past three years have been particularly challenging for private equity, with median buyout funds underperforming global equities by more than 10% annually.
- Lack of exposure to AI-related businesses is a primary driver of recent private equity underperformance, and investors should carefully scrutinize illiquid allocations.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly lower with semiconductors indicated red; S&P down 15bp, 10-Year Yield at 4.58.
- Asian markets significantly lower overnight (Japan -1.2%, China -1.9%, Korea -6.4%) with European markets tracking S&P weakness.
- Wall Street traders having best year ever amid geopolitical tensions including Iran-US skirmishes and shutdown fears.
- Retail Sales, Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, and Pending Home Sales data releases scheduled; TSMC raising sales and spending forecasts.
The Pound Strengthens & The Hurt Endures
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- AI and memory semiconductor trade fell overnight with Asian markets declining; JPMorgan notes extremely high bar for semiconductor earnings.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 7.6% (down 60% YTD) with SK Hynix -11% and Samsung -8%; Japan's Nikkei dropped 3%.
- TSMC expected to post fifth consecutive record quarter but market may have already priced in success, requiring more to sustain momentum.
- US conducted fresh airstrikes on Iranian missile sites; Trump considering escalatory options amid Strait of Hormuz tensions.
Country Risk: Determinants, Measures and Implications - The 2026 Edition!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Annual 2026 update on country risk measures, determinants, and their implications for investing and corporate finance decisions.
- Continues multi-year tradition of integrating data, research, and analysis to assess how risk varies across countries and affects valuation.
- Companion to author's March equity risk premium update and broader annual data suite on investing fundamentals.
The Missing Bid from the Every Buyer Restraint
Garrett Baldwin
- Corporate buybacks forecast to hit record $2 trillion in 2026 but actual execution significantly lags announcements, threatening the 'permanent bid' narrative.
- Reduction in buyback activity from major 'Every Buyer' participants could destabilize market math supporting the Top 20 stocks currently 60x larger than median stocks.
- Stock buybacks reduce share count by using company cash to repurchase shares, but execution gaps create hidden weakness in equity support mechanisms.
VIX 16.38... Are You Paying Attention Yet?
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Real yields on 30-year TIPS have reached November 2008 crisis levels while markets remain near all-time highs with a VIX of 16.38, signaling massive suspension of reality.
- Multiple systemic pressures are building simultaneously: war driving oil up, gold cratering, 10-year yields at dangerous 4.62%, record single-stock volatility, and hawkish central banks worldwide.
- Institutions may be hiding AI debt in opaque wrappers and Japan signals potential capital repatriation, creating tail risks that traditional valuation metrics (EV/EBITDA) fail to capture.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- AI represents the most important economic lever of lifetime that could democratize entrepreneurship and economic opportunity.
- Legal immigration drives economic growth with immigrant-founded companies generating 43% of Fortune 500 revenue in 2024.
- Author criticizes illegal immigration policies and advocates for stronger border enforcement as democratic priority.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly higher on ASML earnings beat and PayPal bid providing tech momentum.
- International markets mixed: European tech rallying while industrials drag; Asia shows divergence with Japan +93bp, China -30bp, Korea +6.2%.
- Coming economic data includes PPI, Empire State PMI, and Fed Beige Book; themes include Fed breathing room, shrinking options to end war, and economist commentary.
Stripe & Advent bid $53B for PayPal, but Advent’s payments empire is the real story 💳👑; Revolut just gave AI Age…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal, with the real story being Advent's growing payments empire through acquisitions.
- Revolut deployed AI agents to its trading platform, representing a shift toward autonomous financial services.
- Both moves highlight the intersection of fintech consolidation and AI integration reshaping payment and trading infrastructure.
Short Thoughts July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
Michael Burry
- PayPal's $60.50/share bid from Stripe and Advent is undervalued; true intrinsic value ranges from $75-$115 with proper control premium factored in.
- IBM suffered its worst single day since 1968, declining 26% amid broad market concerns about the company's prospects.
- Current valuations present opportunities in quality businesses trading below intrinsic value, particularly in the payments sector.
[Chart] sunset or silver-lining?
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Software stocks have swung from trading at a premium to a significant discount versus broader tech, driven by fears AI makes coding easier and disrupts the sector.
- Market consensus treats software as a sunset industry, but this extreme valuation shift may present an opportunity if software companies can leverage AI to improve efficiency.
- Incumbent software firms retain powerful competitive advantages in brand and distribution that new startups using AI-assisted coding cannot easily overcome.
𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚖𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚗𝚜𝚏𝚘𝚛𝚖𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.
Hugh Hendry
- Large one-day market moves (like $60 billion in IBM market cap disappearing) rarely signal the beginning of major trends but rather occur halfway through genuine transformations when old explanations fail.
- When intelligent investors confuse market movement with meaning, they misinterpret sharp declines as containing new information when uncertainty has simply reached a breaking point.
- The critical question for IBM is not short-term software revenue or AI adoption rates but rather what the company is fundamentally becoming, as transformation and deterioration appear identical halfway through reinvention.
Don't Let the AI Trade Distract you from Opportunity in the Land of the Rising Sun
Grizzle Research and Quant
- AI capex spending remains the market focus, but returns and monetization risks are growing as hyperscaler stocks decline significantly from peaks.
- Korea and Taiwan stock market capitalizations have nearly tripled since AI boom began in 2023, reflecting wealth redistribution to North Asia via semiconductor supply chain.
- Upcoming earnings seasons will be critical test of whether markets should worry about AI capex returns as valuations compress across mega-cap tech stocks.
NVIDIA, The Fourth House
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA collected $81.6 billion in revenue at 75% gross margins in latest quarter while customers collected payments 45+ days before their machines generated returns.
- NVIDIA holds $82 billion equity portfolio in customers with $27 billion more committed, creating significant exposure concentration risk alongside product demand.
- Company's equity and customer financing arrangements indicate direct financial interest in success of AI infrastructure buildout beyond just selling chips.
Atlas Engineered Products TSXV:AEP – Catching the bottom, Charlie Brown?
CanadianValueInvestors Substack
- Atlas Engineered Products may be reaching a bottom after significant decline, with analysis of entry points for value investors.
- Two existing holdings (Seneca Foods and NFI Group) have appreciated but no longer represent compelling value relative to other opportunities.
- Portfolio review focuses on relative valuation and identifying when previously cheap securities become fairly priced.
This Company Compounded Revenue at ~13% for 18 Years, Trades at ~4× EBIT, and Has Customers Who Almost Never Leave
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- Healthcare compounder achieved ~13% revenue CAGR over 18 years with consistent profitability and recurring-revenue contracts.
- Company trades at ~4x EBIT multiple with net cash equal to one-third of market value, creating a margin of safety.
- Hidden gem analysis reveals core business generates superior margins after stripping out thin-margin pass-through revenue representing ~50% of sales.
Macro · 14
Avoiding the Takaichi trap
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Prime Minister Takaichi launching 'Takanomics,' a break from 40 years of fiscal conservatism through Y370 trillion public-private partnership investment.
- Policy shift links fiscal strategy to industrial policy and national economic security, favoring METI over Ministry of Finance priorities.
- Takanomics expected to be more inflationary than Abenomics and empower BoJ to hike more aggressively.
- The 'Takaichi Trap' for investors is underestimating her success in rebuilding Team Japan Inc. and misreading market implications.
The Re-Industrialization Of The USA Powerhouse
Capital Flows
- US re-industrialization of defense and manufacturing hardware is the primary reason interest rates remain elevated rather than declining.
- US simultaneously retooling hardware (manufacturing, defense, energy) and software (AI), with convergence defining investment backdrop.
- Defense prime contractors' post-Cold War consolidation created structural inefficiencies; Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX broke old model.
- Hundreds of defense and manufacturing startups now funded across the stack using first-principles vertical integration approaches.
Sticky Forces
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Fiscal policy and demographic trends are the two core forces keeping inflation sticky, and neither is reversing in the near term.
- The Fed and markets have failed to properly acknowledge or quantify how demographics impact inflation, the neutral rate, and fair value for bonds.
- Demographic analysis provides significant predictive edge for future economic cycles if properly quantified into models.
Statecraft & Cool Inflation
Andrew Sarna
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals administration goal to bring more industry back to America through policy initiatives.
- June CPI inflation came in at 3.5% (below 3.8% expectations) with month-over-month decline of 0.4%, largest drop since May 2020.
- Market priced 35% probability of July rate hike before CPI; those odds largely disappeared after cooler print, though food inflation remains elevated.
Cooler CPI Bought Time. It Didn’t End the Cycle.
Global Macro Method
- Softer CPI print pushed immediate Fed hike timeline further out but hasn't removed need for future tightening.
- Deferred rate curve still embeds ~45bp of tightening into next spring, with neither US nor Australia signaling all-clear.
- Current market signals show misalignment with clean disinflationary path; broader dashboard signals suggest harder-to-slow economy than rates narrative implies.
Let's Look At What You Could Have Won!
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- US inflation fell for the first time since 2020, triggering expectations of central bank rate cuts and broad market relief.
- Oil prices surged despite inflation decline, with Brent crude reaching $85 amid US naval blockade resumption, signaling inflationary pressure ahead.
- Market rallies in Asia-Pacific and US equities appear premature given geopolitical tensions pricing in oil upside that contradicts disinflation narrative.
War Note: War is Inflationary, Latest War Updates, Energy Markets Review, Asian Volatility is Accelerating
MacroEdge Research
- The US-Iran conflict resumption is expected to continue for at least 60 days, driving inflationary pressures through oil prices and nominal asset appreciation.
- War-driven inflation may be intentional policy to mask softening consumer economy in lower income brackets ahead of midterm elections.
- Energy markets have rebounded sharply with Brent near $88/bbl and WTI above $80, offsetting earlier disinflation gains and supporting nominal wealth effects.
Pink slips for the New Keynesian Synthesis
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's task force appointments signal institutional reform and rejection of New Keynesian Synthesis orthodoxy.
- The wholesale exclusion of New Keynesian thought leaders from advisory roles indicates a major shift in Fed policy framework philosophy.
- Warsh's emphasis on epistemic humility suggests the Fed will move away from conventional macroeconomic consensus in its future policy direction.
The Winner Take All AI Race Between The US and China
Capital Flows
- AI IPOs are functioning as clearing mechanisms for macro liquidity and behaving like FOMC events, with specific IPOs marking tops and bottoms in indices like NVIDIA.
- The US-China AI race is winner-take-all with no prize for second place; Chinese open-source models already capture 46% of US enterprise usage and OpenAI lost its lead to Anthropic in six months.
- Record foreign buying of US equities is driven not just by AI enthusiasm but by China's refusal to revalue its currency, creating excess dollar liquidity flowing into American stocks at historically high valuations.
Real Yields Just Voted. (So, That's Cool)
Garrett Baldwin
- Real yields on the 30-year Treasury have reached historically high levels, signaling a significant shift in the fixed-income landscape and inflation expectations.
- Michael Hartnett's macro commentary continues to identify critical trends that mainstream media and economists often miss, including the broader implications of real yield movements.
- The personal editor's note underscores the human cost of market cycles and life's uncertainties beyond financial data.
We're Not Out Of The Woods Yet
Prometheus Research
- Latest CPI data came in materially colder than expected, with headline inflation driven lower by softness in shelter costs and transportation services.
- Market interpretation that disinflationary trends will continue may be premature, as inflation breadth remains pervasively elevated across categories.
- PCE inflation estimates suggest a -0.14% headline print for June with 6-month trend at 4.4%, less disinflationary than headline CPI alone indicates.
Maradona Theory
AP Research
- Weakest CPI inflation print since 2020 arrived with headline prices down 0.4% MoM and core CPI unchanged, undershooting consensus expectations.
- Federal Reserve's credibility challenge is presenting its reaction function as flexible policy-making rather than pre-committed strategy.
- Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony on inflation credibility was reinforced by favorable CPI data, reducing need for immediate hawkish signaling.
Japan's "Bring It Home" Moment?
PAIDSam Shiffman from Clark Street
- Japan's new leadership has proposed bringing foreign capital home through pro-growth policies, marking a potential shift after two decades of Japanese outflows.
- Wage growth and inflation above BoJ targets are creating favorable conditions for nominal earnings growth in Japanese equities.
- JGB yields have risen above German yields for the first time, attracting capital repatriation as the carry trade dynamics shift.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity momentum is slowing with PBoC tightening and US dollar strength offsetting support from Fed and BoE.
- SMB (Senior Money Bank?) has stalled, signaling the credit cycle is maturing despite low bond volatility and solid collateral values.
- Investor risk appetite remains positive but is fading, particularly across Emerging Markets, indicating weakening conviction.
Politics · 9
Andy Burnham’s Lineker interview exposes his cowardice on Gaza
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Andy Burnham takes clear position on Gaza through pre-recorded apology and Gary Lineker interview, claiming Labour previously lacked courage.
- Choice of Lineker as interviewer questioned given his controversial antisemitic imagery and rejected apology from Jewish representatives.
- Burnham avoids parliamentary scrutiny and Prime Minister's Questions for seven weeks, making media interview appear weak and calculated.
- Burnham's Gaza statement accuses Israel of ceasefire violations, territorial expansion, and inadequate humanitarian aid provision.
Gary Lineker helps Andy Burnham sell a one-sided anti-Israel narrative
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Andy Burnham's discussion of Gaza with Gary Lineker presented a one-sided critique of Israel while largely omitting scrutiny of Hamas's failures and violations.
- Choice of Lineker as interviewer raises questions about whether the platform was designed to avoid informed challenge rather than serious conflict analysis.
- Episode exposes uncertainty about Burnham's approach and the broader media pattern of imbalanced coverage on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The Impossible Republic
Santiago Capital Research
- The American Revolution narrative has been flattened into a pageant by historical winners, obscuring how improbably thin the margins were at every critical moment.
- Historical accounting reveals absurdly perilous sequences—such as ferrying 9,000 men across open river under dense fog with the entire Continental Army facing potential capture.
- Author reflects on how the 250th anniversary prompted reconsideration of the actual contingency and fragility underlying America's founding, beyond the conventional heroic telling.
Watson v. Republican National Committee: When Election Day Is Not Election Day
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Supreme Court ruled federal election-day statutes govern ballot casting timing, not receipt deadlines, allowing states flexibility in counting postmarked ballots.
- 5-4 decision creates potential for election season chaos by enabling states to count ballots received days after Election Day if postmarked on time.
- Narrow ruling grounds leave unresolved questions about ballot receipt deadlines, setting stage for future litigation over election administration practices.
Why liberalism cannot defend Britain: Melanie Phillips on the West’s “suicide note”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Melanie Phillips discusses why she shifted from London to Jerusalem, citing Britain's cultural institutions turning against support for Israel.
- The post explores whether Jews can maintain full British identity when pro-Israel positions are treated as evidence of disloyalty.
- Phillips frames the Jewish crisis as inseparable from a broader collapse of Western confidence and liberal institutions.
War Breaks Out In The Gulf Again
John Aziz
- The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended, with repeated American strikes hitting over 80 targets inside Iran and additional waves targeting Iranian capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Recent Iranian attacks on US-allied nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan) and commercial shipping, including strikes that killed two mariners and wounded 14 on UAE-associated vessels, indicate active conflict.
- The critical question is whether either the US or Iran can translate military pressure into political victory, or if renewed violence will become a protracted stalemate without clear strategic objectives.
Iran So Far Away 🪂 🤸♀️ Midterms Near
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Live discussion covers renewed US-Iran military tensions and Israel's positioning in potential conflict escalation.
- Explores whether Trump administration can achieve strategic victory and considers alternatives to regime change.
- Military expert Andrew Fox (16-year British Army veteran, Middle East specialist) provides geopolitical analysis on Strait of Hormuz security implications.
Office Hours: Professor Pape Answers Your Questions on Russia–Ukraine
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Russia unlikely to deploy nuclear weapons unless core Russian territory faces serious threat, despite weakening conventional position.
- Tactical nuclear weapons in eastern Ukraine would fail to deliver decisive battlefield advantage due to intermingled populations and temporary gains.
- Strategic and political consequences of nuclear escalation likely outweigh perceived military benefits for Putin's decision-making calculus.
A Conversation with John Sailer: How to Make Universities More Accountable
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Manhattan Institute proposes model legislation to expand university governing boards' oversight of curriculum and hiring decisions.
- Public universities have failed to adequately prepare students for careers and citizenship responsibilities, requiring structural accountability reforms.
- New governance checks and balances aim to ensure universities fulfill their public obligations and serve the representatives of the public interest.
Energy · 9
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-10-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude inventories fell 1.7 MMB with SPR drawing 3.0 MMB, indicating continued depletion of strategic reserves at 1983 levels.
- WTI rallied over $10 to $80/barrel following renewed Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz restrictions, but market underprices geopolitical risk and inventory levels relative to fair value.
- Total crude inventories have declined significantly over five years; current levels are 6% below seasonal average despite recent slowdown in draw rates.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Multiple commodity markets are significantly mispriced, with wheat leading the way among agricultural products facing unrecognized risks.
- Author discusses broader market complacency regarding commodity valuations in the context of geopolitical tensions and structural supply dynamics.
- Analysis touches on energy, agricultural commodities, and currency implications of current pricing disconnects.
Canadian Oil & Gas Is Booming
Bison Insights
- Canadian oil and gas production reaching record levels through Q1 2026 despite recent commodity price pullbacks driving continued drilling expansion.
- Well economics remain compelling with improving returns across multiple production areas supporting highest Canadian drilling rig count in over a decade.
- Canadian E&P companies like CNQ and Tourmaline Oil show strong fundamentals benefiting from rising production activity and increased capital spending cycles.
Gazprom Exports Plunge 24% in June as Europe’s Gas Storage Refill Lags and Winter Risks Mount
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Gazprom exports to Europe fell 24% month-on-month in June 2026 due to maintenance, leaving gas storage at only 49.1% of capacity—the lowest late-June level since 2021.
- Weak LNG inflows from Middle East tensions and negative summer-winter price spreads are disincentivizing European storage injections ahead of winter.
- Europe faces renewed volatility and upside price risks for TTF and JKM as inventory levels remain well below five-year averages heading into winter demand season.
The energy foundations of Fortress Russia: 2
Irina Slav on energy
- Global economy remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbons despite $3.6 trillion spent on climate projects between 2011-2018.
- Sanctions on Russia's energy exports had significant seismic effects due to globally tight oil and gas supply.
- Western strategy against Russia was forced to pivot due to energy system vulnerability, reinforcing the 'Fortress Russia' narrative.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Weather forecasts showing below-normal rainfall across Illinois, Nebraska, and Kansas contradict market assumptions of improved conditions, with only 25mm expected over 12 days versus normal 25-30mm per week.
- Black Sea risks remain underpriced while canola and sugar are setting up for significant trades based on weather patterns and supply concerns.
- Many financial analysts and social media commentators lack fundamental understanding of agricultural weather dynamics and how precipitation anomalies drive commodity markets.
Episode 5: Running on Empty - The Russian Endgame Is Here to Stay
The Commodity Compass
- Russia's fuel crisis has evolved from a logistics problem to a volume crisis, with refinery throughput collapsing from 5.0mbpd in 2022 to 2.9mbpd in July 2026, creating nationwide shortages.
- Ukraine's drone campaign has systematically degraded Russia's refinery capacity, making it impossible to convert crude oil into usable fuel and forcing a shift from denial to damage control by the Kremlin.
- While Belarus and India can provide partial relief through imports, China is unlikely to help at scale, and Russia cannot overcome sanctions, economics, logistics, and maritime security constraints to close the supply gap.
OPEC+ Data Deck (July 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- OPEC+ crude production rose to 26,177 kbpd in June, highest since February 2026, driven by Persian Gulf crude loading recovery.
- Production gains are vulnerable to ongoing US-Iran strikes and renewed Strait of Hormuz disruptions beginning to reverse loading trends.
- OPEC+ quota increased 188 kbpd for August, leaving only one remaining monthly hike before second tranche of production cuts is fully unwound.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell $1.50/t to $229.50/t as weak buying interest and ample supply pressured seaborne markets.
- Indian steelmakers remain largely absent from the market due to weak steel margins and comfortable coal inventories.
- Recent price declines have been steeper than expected but remain consistent with broader market trends.
Culture · 8
Sabaya
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Documentary 'Sabaya' reveals the ongoing plight of Yazidi women held in al-Hol camp years after the fall of ISIS, still being bought and sold inside the facility.
- Despite the scale of the atrocity (Sinjar massacre over a decade ago), international awareness and concern about these women remains virtually nonexistent.
- The camp's Yazidi population faces conditions described as 'hell on earth' with minimal external attention or intervention.
Talking About My Generation
Ted Gioia
- Author, born at the peak of the Baby Boom (1957), arrived too late to participate in the defining 1960s upheavals that characterize the generation.
- Unlike older Boomers, the author avoided Vietnam draft risk entirely as registration was eliminated when he turned eighteen, distancing him from generational touchstones.
- Personal reflection on generational identity, noting the generation gap was already established before his cohort came of age, creating a gap within the Boomer generation itself.
Kitchen Scraps: Erling Haaland's 6000-Calorie Diet, the Best Refried Beans, and Any-Bean Hummus
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Erling Haaland reportedly consumes 6000 calories daily on an 'ancestral diet' featuring organ meats, raw honey, and minimal processed foods.
- Author shares improved refried bean recipe using chipotle, cheese, and lime juice for enhanced flavor.
- Post covers various cooking techniques and recipes for home preparation, focusing on ingredient quality and technique.
The Science-Backed Habits of People Who Never Burn Out
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- WHO 2019 reclassified burnout as occupational phenomenon driven by recovery problems, not work volume or hours.
- Research shows some people work extraordinarily hard without burning out while others collapse under moderate loads, suggesting individual recovery capacity matters.
- Burnout features exhaustion, mental distance from job, and reduced effectiveness—factors tied to recovery management rather than total work hours.
You didn't fail. You quit at 40%
Parent Fit Club
- When you quit a workout or diet early, you're typically stopping at 40% effort due to perceived risk your brain sends as exhaustion signals, not actual inability.
- The brain acts as a governor to protect you from perceived (not real) risk, treating physical discomfort the same as genuine danger and shutting down performance prematurely.
- Reframing exhaustion as a lie rather than information allows parents to push past mental barriers and unlock the remaining 60% of capacity without requiring elite military discipline.
The art of balancing work & life
Bob Pisani
- Bob Pisani discusses his approach to balancing a 35+ year career at CNBC with personal life and the daily rituals that sustain him.
- The interview explores what fuels Pisani beyond his work translating Wall Street complexities for mass audiences and his transition to a new chapter beyond daily reporting.
- The piece humanizes a trusted financial journalist by examining the person behind the microphone and his philosophy on work-life balance.
Make the Rocky Mountains Rocky Again.
Wes Flint from The Fleeting West
- Over a century of aggressive wildfire suppression has transformed Rocky Mountain forests from open, rocky landscapes into dense, fuel-loaded stands.
- Historic photographs and fire ecology evidence show frequent fire once maintained healthier, more open forests with lower crown fire intensity.
- Today's overcrowded Western forests represent an ecological recipe for increased fire intensity rather than prevention, reversing the natural landscape.
The 9 foods a urologist would eat if he wanted his testosterone back at 55
Strong After 40
- Testosterone production requires specific dietary inputs including cholesterol, zinc, selenium, magnesium, and saturated fat that have been demonized or engineered out of modern diets.
- Whole eggs (with yolks), identified nutrients, and real minerals form a three-tier food hierarchy starting with non-negotiable tier-1 items for hormone production.
- Middle-aged men's shift to processed foods and frozen meals starves the endocrine system of raw materials needed to maintain testosterone levels after 45.