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Updated Wednesday, September 23 2026 · 06:24 AM CDT · 97 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 15

Market Update & Signals 9/23/26

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • QQQ hit new all-time closing highs while broader market shows weakness, with only 18% of S&P industry groups up for September.
  • Performance gap widening significantly: QQQ up 5% in one month vs SPY up 1% and average stock down 4%.
  • 22 of 30 SOX semiconductor components are constructive and candidate for pullback buys if a market shakeout occurs.
Sep 23, 05:57 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Chat thread discussing Trump's suggestion to rename AI to SI and the risks of outsourcing thinking to artificial intelligence systems.
  • Brief commentary on ongoing diplomatic situation with Iran and Xi's visit to Washington.
  • Informal market and geopolitical commentary from newsletter chat participant.
Sep 23, 05:47 AMRead on Substack →

Pastor Ezra Jin: Free My Fellow Church Leaders in China. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today for meetings with Trump covering AI, critical minerals, trade, and Taiwan among key agenda items.
  • Pastor Ezra Jin and other political/religious prisoners remain detained in China; Trump previously raised Jin's case during May meeting.
  • Human rights advocates hope the detention of Chinese dissidents and church leaders will not be overshadowed by economic and strategic discussions.
Sep 23, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

Here's My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 23)

PRIORITY
HFI Research
  • Crude oil in pullback phase amid Iran-US tensions following repeated verbal escalation and strike cycles that temporarily push prices higher.
  • Global crude oil inventories continue declining despite pullbacks, indicating structural undersupply despite tactical peace headlines.
  • Semi-closed Strait of Hormuz status continues impacting global oil balances, supporting higher price floors despite repeated negotiation cycles.
Sep 23, 04:17 AMRead on Substack →

Chapter 9 - You Can Only Slay The Dragon Once

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Junior analyst reflects on a 2002 meeting with Jiangxi Copper when Chinese industrialization seemed promising but company presentation was poorly executed.
  • Fund managers at the meeting were divided on China's investment sustainability, with one manager making bearish comparisons to pre-Asian Financial Crisis Southeast Asia.
  • Personal narrative explores early career experiences in emerging market investing and the difficulty of assessing investment opportunities with incomplete information.
Sep 23, 04:11 AMRead on Substack →

(WOMM) What Energy’s Valuation Says About The Rest Of The Market

PRIORITY
Ideas from HFI Research
  • Energy sector remains among the cheapest S&P 500 sectors on valuation metrics despite being fairly valued on normalized oil assumptions around $80/barrel.
  • High valuations across the broader market make it increasingly difficult to find investments with adequate margins of safety, even in energy.
  • Energy's relative cheapness compared to other sectors signals that overall market valuations are stretched elsewhere.
Sep 23, 03:01 AMRead on Substack →

They Were Lifelong Democrats. Then a Terrorist Attacked Their Synagogue.

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Lifelong Democratic Jewish voters in Michigan are reconsidering support for Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed due to concerns about his alleged anti-Jewish stance.
  • Members of Temple Israel, a historically liberal synagogue near Detroit, report that approximately 70% of congregants plan to vote for Republican opponent Mike Rogers.
  • Some Jewish Democrats have never voted Republican before but are now either switching or abstaining from the Senate race over security concerns for their community.
Sep 22, 04:14 PMRead on Substack →

The Monstering of Art

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • Ayn Rand's biography reveals how her experience of communist Russia shaped her philosophy rejecting altruism and collectivism in favor of radical individualism.
  • Rand's fictional characters who refuse to surrender independence to group demands are consistently ostracized, hunted, and punished—a pattern reflecting her philosophical worldview.
  • The essay explores Rand's influence as a prophetic figure who understood how power can be acquired through the pretense of loving-kindness.
Sep 22, 01:42 PMRead on Substack →

HAVE CENTRAL BANKS ALREADY LOST CONTROL OF CREDIT MARKETS?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Central banks have created asymmetrical policy-making with aggressive cuts/interventions on downside but reluctant rate increases, tying corporate credit to sovereign credit markets.
  • Corporate debt spreads remain historically tight, indicating markets believe central banks will always intervene to prevent recessions, creating false confidence.
  • Accelerating loan growth globally—even in Japan—suggests markets discount recession risk, creating a structural problem for central banks trying to tighten policy.
Sep 22, 08:49 AMRead on Substack →

The Other Invisible Metal

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Nickel thesis pivots from perceived value trap to coiled spring as Indonesian government cuts supply quotas and consolidates resource sector control.
  • Indonesia's 70% global supply concentration creates nationalization/rationalization risk that could swing nickel from surplus to deficit within years.
  • Junior mining stocks like Magna Mining and Talon offer exposure to advancing nickel assets with strong management, though liquidity challenges exist for retail investors outside LME futures.
Sep 22, 07:33 AMRead on Substack →

Uncomfortable Truths

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Meta's AI Agent Muse gains market enthusiasm while OpenAI/Anthropic leadership faces criticism for regulatory capture and fearmongering (Jensen Huang, Alex Karp commentary).
  • Chinese AI models now represent 66% of token share with Alibaba expanding data center capacity to 20GW by 2032—roughly 15-20% of projected US capacity.
  • OpenAI nationalization appears inevitable if no IPO materializes, per Palantir's Karp, reflecting belief that US-China AI competition is existential.
Sep 22, 06:06 AMRead on Substack →

Market Update & Signals 9/22/26

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • SPY broke to highest close since August record with bull flag breakout projecting to ~$780 new all-time high; QQQ on track for first green September in midterm election year since 2010.
  • Tech led gains with Nasdaq +830 points; MAGS, SMH, XLK, and IGV all showing strong breakout patterns toward new highs.
  • Momentum flipped to long but not overbought; multiple open gaps at lower levels ($747, $705) may require retesting despite bullish sentiment.
Sep 22, 05:28 AMRead on Substack →

Coleman Hughes on Nikole Hannah-Jones’ School Experiment. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Nikole Hannah-Jones admitted her 2014 decision to send daughter to underfunded school to fight inequality was a failure, leaving daughter angry and feeling betrayed.
  • Coleman Hughes argues it is better to learn from ideological opponents' mistakes than kick them when down.
  • Story examines the gap between ideological principle and practical parenting outcomes.
Sep 22, 05:03 AMRead on Substack →

The Bravest Man We Ever Knew

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • A disabled man named Dovie wrote a compelling article against New York's assisted suicide bill, arguing its logic dehumanizes people with disabilities.
  • Despite living with nemaline myopathy requiring a wheelchair and ventilator, Dovie's life demonstrated value and purpose contrary to assisted suicide advocates' premises.
  • The article explores how societal views on disability and worth intersect with end-of-life policy decisions.
Sep 21, 01:10 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Markets are engaging in 'War of Worry' meme dynamics following Trump's Iran statements that could signal either minor developments or major geopolitical escalation.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent's handshake with Jake Paul is being satirically positioned as marking a potential bottom in cultural/market absurdity.
  • Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) is extending gains following Trump-Xi diplomatic engagement.
Sep 21, 07:13 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 15

Episode 023: Noise awaiting signal

Mark Farrington from Global Watchtower
  • Episode assesses major market events since the last discussion and evaluates whether evidence is shifting on key macro trends.
  • Inflation remains sticky despite characterization as 'hot,' with both hosts agreeing inflation expectations remain elevated enough to require further tightening.
  • Examines central bank policies, Treasury curve dynamics, bond market management, and corporate earnings strength amid ongoing market uncertainty.
Sep 23, 03:00 AMRead on Substack →

Episode 023: Noise awaiting signal

Thematic Markets
  • Assessment of the 'resolution window' from summer through US midterm elections reveals that many feared outcomes have not materialized.
  • Latest CPI data characterized as 'hot' but hosts question this interpretation while acknowledging inflation expectations remain elevated.
  • Earnings remain strong, Treasury markets have stabilized, and capital investment is broader than AI-only narratives suggest, though uncertainty persists heading into elections.
Sep 23, 01:02 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Chinese RMB continues to strengthen quietly while US Treasury Secretary avoids formal currency manipulation accusations despite Beijing's guilty practices.
  • South Korea and Taiwan employ even more aggressive FX policies that Washington tolerates due to trade surplus recycling into US Treasuries and equities.
  • Commodity FX dynamics driven by currency movements as pensions and foreign reserves repatriate capital.
Sep 22, 07:11 PMRead on Substack →

Does The Investment Cycle Favor Stocks?

Prometheus Research
  • Business fixed investment is the primary driver of cyclical GDP variation, with every recession preceded by investment weakness.
  • The post analyzes five components of business investment (residential, industrial, transport, information equipment, intellectual property) to assess economic sustainability.
  • Residential investment remains weak due to high monetary policy rates and low housing demand, but not yet severe enough to trigger broader contraction.
Sep 22, 06:31 PMRead on Substack →

10 Charts to Watch in 2026 [update]

Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
  • Global growth has proven resilient despite geopolitical challenges, driven by prior monetary stimulus and showing signs of reacceleration in manufacturing PMI.
  • A significant macro pivot from interest rate hikes in 2023 to tailwinds in 2026 is now shifting again, with tailwinds expected to turn to headwinds in 2027.
  • OECD leading indicators corroborate global economic reacceleration, with monetary policy cycles playing a central role in determining market direction.
Sep 22, 06:10 PMRead on Substack →

The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade

Capital Flows
  • Global macro traders can capitalize on extreme credit events and policy-driven dislocations in rates and FX, an underutilized source of alpha.
  • The Korean KOSPI index represents a convergence point where policy decisions and AI infrastructure trade dynamics intersect for significant opportunities.
  • An asset-agnostic and country-agnostic approach enables traders to pivot to volatile opportunities rather than concentrating risk in oversaturated equity sectors.
Sep 22, 04:15 PMRead on Substack →

China EVs in US? The Impending Trump-XI Deal – and What it Means for America

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • Xi Jinping's Washington summit centers on potential Chinese EV manufacturing expansion in the US, with major tech and battery executives in delegation.
  • Trump administration discussions focus on securing rare earth mineral supply chains for aerospace and consumer electronics alongside EV manufacturing.
  • Chinese EV market entry poses competitive threat to US automakers while raising geopolitical questions about trade-offs between short-term economic gains and long-term strategic positioning.
Sep 22, 08:52 AMRead on Substack →

The Fed Can Be Right, But The Curve Can Still Be Wrong

Global Macro Method
  • Fed may be right about hiking, but markets may be overpricing total tightening needed beyond potential October increase.
  • Effective funds rate at 3.88% with ~13.7bp priced for October and policy peak around 4.66% next September.
  • Author seeking to trade the gap between economy strong enough to absorb another hike and one requiring entire priced path via rates and currency trades.
Sep 22, 05:49 AMRead on Substack →

Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Global liquidity rose above $196 trillion last week driven by favorable funding conditions.
  • Collateral multiplier at all-time high according to Capital Wars records.
  • Capital rotating from emerging markets toward developed markets and commodity-producing regions despite elevated investor risk appetite.
Sep 22, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

Bessent Is the House Now. Gold Is the Tell

Craig Tindale
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent doubled long-dated bond buyback operations, signaling direct intervention to manage the long end of the yield curve.
  • Gold historically marks inflection points when U.S. Treasury debt management conditions are rewritten, serving as a reliable indicator of structural shifts.
  • The buyback program represents a departure from passive debt management and reflects deepening concerns about fiscal sustainability.
Sep 22, 02:37 AMRead on Substack →

Pyrrhic Victory

Peruvian Bull
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's unanimous rate hike represents a Pyrrhic victory that addresses the wrong inflation dynamic and worsens the government's underlying fiscal challenges.
  • The 12-0 FOMC vote signals rare consensus on tightening, but applied the blunt instrument of interest rates to a structural inflation problem rather than a cyclical one.
  • Trump's appointment of Warsh for looser policy has instead produced restrictive moves that conflict with the administration's stated economic goals.
Sep 21, 04:39 PMRead on Substack →

Insider Newsletter: Issue #336

Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
  • US 10-year bond yield at 4.67% versus China's 1.68% shows widest spread on record, revealing market distrust in US fiscal sustainability.
  • Bond yields represent the unspinnable verdict on government creditworthiness; the US gap reflects massive deficits and shrinking domestic demand for Treasuries.
  • As Treasury issuance continues to grow, the market is quietly running short of willing buyers, forcing yields higher to attract marginal demand.
Sep 21, 02:23 PMRead on Substack →

The $2 Trillion Apartment Bomb Is Really a Bank Story

Rebel Capitalist News Desk
  • US apartment landlords face $1.8 trillion in debt over next decade, with $757 billion due by 2028; loans locked in at ~3% in 2020-21 now refinance near 6%, breaking the math for many owners.
  • This is fundamentally a banking story: delinquency rates on apartment mortgage bonds jumped from ~1% to ~7%, the sharpest rise of any property type, creating losses that will ripple across bank balance sheets.
  • Watch bank lending standards, private credit, and 10-year yields as tripwires; tightening credit conditions and higher rates could trigger cascade of foreclosures including major players like Blackstone.
Sep 21, 01:35 PMRead on Substack →

Should Investors Maintain Equity Allocations During An Inflation Shock?

Prometheus Research
  • Nominal GDP remains elevated with persistent inflationary pressures materially above Fed policy targets, creating a stagflationary backdrop.
  • Commodity assets remain the strongest portfolio performers in this regime, while equities face mixed drivers and should be repositioned as diversifiers rather than return generators.
  • Rising nominal growth with inflation favors commodities and hurts fixed income, requiring tactical portfolio reallocation away from traditional equity-heavy allocations.
Sep 21, 12:27 PMRead on Substack →

Shotgun Wedding

Santiago Capital Research
  • Federal Reserve raised policy rate by 25bps to 3.75-4% range on September 16, the first increase in over three years, with unanimous vote despite administration pressure for lower rates.
  • 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.996% following the hike, the highest in a year, creating unfavorable borrowing conditions for the large federal deficit.
  • The episode demonstrates that conviction in economic frameworks should not extend to certainty about market sequence—consensus expectations can shift rapidly even when surprises seem unlikely.
Sep 21, 08:04 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 13

Palestine After the Two-State Solution

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • Two-state solution is politically dead as an immediate project due to both Israeli and Palestinian skepticism rooted in security concerns.
  • Gaza withdrawal in 2005 followed by Hamas takeover and 7 October attacks creates Israeli fear that West Bank withdrawal could repeat the pattern.
  • Polling shows only 17% of Palestinians support the two-state solution, indicating both sides lack confidence in traditional peace frameworks.
Sep 23, 05:38 AMRead on Substack →

Nobody Knows, Donald

Hypernormal Times
  • Trump simultaneously issued threats of annihilation toward Iran while envoys conducted 'constructive and promising' negotiations, creating conflicting market signals.
  • Markets focused on diplomacy signals rather than military threats, with Brent crude falling toward $98 for a six-session losing streak.
  • US-China summit agreed on establishing a Board of Trade and AI notification hotline, though substance of discussions remains limited.
Sep 23, 01:05 AMRead on Substack →

King Abdullah Described Jordan at the UN and Called It Israel

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Jordan's King Abdullah criticized the world for managing rather than confronting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but his own country's demographics mirror similar issues.
  • Jordan's 2016 census documented over 634,000 Palestinians without national ID numbers, classified as 'guests' rather than citizens, contradicting Abdullah's rhetoric.
  • The post argues that King Abdullah's criticisms of Israel's treatment of Palestinians apply equally to Jordan's historical management of Palestinian populations.
Sep 22, 02:56 PMRead on Substack →

On Dogmas, Heterodoxy, and Supermajorities

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Adam Jentleson's new book argues Democrats need to embrace 'heterodoxy' by allowing candidates to deviate from party orthodoxy to fit their districts rather than imposing ideological purity tests.
  • Ruy Teixeira agrees with much of Jentleson's argument for building a durable supermajority but believes the book comes up short in key ways.
  • The debate centers on how Democrats can rebuild electoral power after their 2024 defeat to Trump.
Sep 22, 11:47 AMRead on Substack →

The real problem with interfaith initiatives

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • The Archbishop of Canterbury's recent missteps reveal that choreographed interfaith initiatives are performative rather than genuine coexistence.
  • Jonathan Sacerdoti argues that the harder interfaith events work to demonstrate harmony between communities, the more they signal underlying doubt and division.
  • Performance-based interfaith engagement attracts performers and proves the opposite of what it intends, after 25 years of observing such initiatives.
Sep 22, 11:00 AMRead on Substack →

Americans don’t like extremists

Hot Takes by Adam Singer
  • Both 'woke left' and 'woke right' share identical operating systems (racial identity obsession, expanded government power, struggle sessions) despite opposite aesthetics.
  • Far-left DSA and far-right movements exhibit parallel behavioral patterns in dehumanization and extremism that reject centrist, liberal democratic values.
  • Americans historically reject political extremists regardless of ideological wrapper, suggesting mainstream backlash potential against both factions.
Sep 22, 07:26 AMRead on Substack →

Zika, The Midterms, Maine.

David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
  • Measles outbreak in Pennsylvania coincides with RFK Jr. vaccine skepticism claims in Maine, with potential electoral impact on PA, Maine, and Florida voters.
  • Kotok's updated Zika pamphlet documents decade-long health and economic consequences of delayed political response to disease epidemics.
  • Historical pattern shows American politics consistently delays epidemic responses with long-term suffering and economic costs to vulnerable populations.
Sep 22, 06:03 AMRead on Substack →

Why People Trust Doctors But Not Politicians

Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
  • Ipsos Global Trustworthiness Index shows politicians most untrustworthy profession on average, distrusted by two-thirds or more in 14 major countries.
  • Doctors emerge as most trustworthy professionals overall, ranking first in 16 of 31 nations, followed closely by scientists.
  • Trust gap between doctors and politicians reflects deeper credibility crisis affecting governance and institutional confidence.
Sep 22, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

Europe’s Crisis of Competence Ten Months On

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • EU methane and packaging regulations impose compliance costs so high that enforcement has been suspended before the rules even took effect, creating contingent liabilities for businesses.
  • Laws that are technically live but unenforced create legal ambiguity and raise capital costs for investors, undermining the EU's stated regulatory objectives.
  • Little has improved in Europe's competence crisis over ten months; structural governance and enforcement failures persist across multiple policy domains.
Sep 21, 11:01 PMRead on Substack →

Francesca Albanese Calls For The End Of Western Military Aid To Ukraine

John Aziz
  • UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese's call to end Western military aid to Ukraine misattributes the root cause of conflict escalation to Western weapons rather than Putin's initial invasion.
  • Weapons transfers to Ukraine began only after Russia massed forces on the border in late 2021; removing aid would not incentivize negotiations absent a shift in Russian strategy.
  • The argument betrays a flawed understanding of negotiating dynamics and reflects anti-Western bias rather than a coherent conflict resolution framework.
Sep 21, 05:12 PMRead on Substack →

Mamdani’s Influencer Army Is Recruiting Your Children

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Columbia Journalism Review exposes how political movements manufacture authenticity through coordinated influencer networks rather than genuine grassroots organizing.
  • Western institutions have been infiltrated by ideologues across schools, universities and municipal governments while establishment conservatives dismissed warnings and relied on free market of ideas to self-correct.
  • The right is still playing by outdated rules while the left has shifted tactics; institutional capture and youth recruitment through manufactured grassroots movements are the new battlefield.
Sep 21, 03:59 PMRead on Substack →

Clear Thoughts: The Press Ban, Trump's $5,000 Promise, Macklemore “Genocide”, and the Lone Clancy Juror

Kaizen Asiedu
  • Trump banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico from White House access, claiming they publish fiction; the TV pool of networks (including Fox) refused to cover his UN trip in protest.
  • Legal question is whether bans are permitted; ethical question is whether they should be—courts have held that once press access is granted, presidents cannot revoke it over coverage.
  • Separate incidents include Trump's $5,000 working class promise, Macklemore's genocide comments, and a sole juror holdout in a major case.
Sep 21, 03:37 PMRead on Substack →

Corruption Fears Surge

Demography Unplugged
  • 89% of Americans believe government corruption is widespread, up 30 percentage points since 2006 and 10 points since 2025.
  • Democrats drove much of the surge, with 91% now believing in corruption (+15 points in one year), reflecting accelerated distrust after Trump's return.
  • Republicans show declining skepticism despite controlling government, suggesting either deep state distrust or willingness to overlook ethical concerns for policy alignment.
Sep 21, 09:39 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 12

Secondary Pricing & AI’s Second Act

Andrew Sarna
  • Secondary pricing remains stable in 85-95% range but real estate, venture, and growth equity trade at 25% discounts.
  • Potential AI lab IPOs in next 12 months could collectively exceed all US tech IPOs from 1980-2025 in total value.
  • Tech and Communication Services have regained market leadership as Meta's Muse AI assistant launch revives the AI trade after summer doldrums.
Sep 23, 05:45 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • US markets unchanged near record highs with 10-year yield at 4.97%; international markets flattish as AI FOMO returns.
  • European markets well off earlier highs; Catalonia independence movement growing; mixed Asia performance across Japan, China, and Korea.
  • Questions raised about whether Trump has contained his China hawks; PMI data and Meta's AI agent impact on TMT sector to watch.
Sep 23, 05:00 AMRead on Substack →

What I’m Watching So You Don’t Have To

The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
  • US stock market has proven resilient against predictions of meaningful correction or bear market, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 reaching records in September.
  • Year-to-date performance strong: Dow up 8%, S&P 500 up 13.5%, NASDAQ up 17.2%, driven by oil price declines and Treasury yield retreats.
  • Market resilience persists despite geopolitical conflicts, AI volatility debates, energy price spikes, and growing concerns about the inflation outlook.
Sep 22, 06:46 PMRead on Substack →

Stay.. . Rollover Market...

Garrett Baldwin
  • Market recovery was largely driven by Nasdaq 100 strength following short covering triggered by the Fed meeting last Wednesday, with a 47+ point rally.
  • The post emphasizes the importance of monitoring moves in the third standard deviation range and identifying pain trades that reverse to the upside.
  • Author reflects on taking time away from trading to manage personal matters, including visiting family after a personal health issue.
Sep 22, 04:46 PMRead on Substack →

YWR: An Elysium Trade on Sale

PAID
Erik@YWR
  • Western taxation systems, including income tax, dividend tax, capital gains tax, and numerous levies, create incentives for wealthy individuals to relocate to lower-tax jurisdictions.
  • Dubai real estate demand may be unlimited despite Middle East tensions, as high-income earners seek alternatives to the tax burden in the UK, US, and Europe.
  • The post frames Dubai as an 'Elysium trade'—a low-tax haven attracting capital flight from overtaxed Western economies.
Sep 22, 03:50 PMRead on Substack →

Trading Post September 22, 2026

Michael Burry
  • NASDAQ 100 faces headwinds from historical overvaluation and concentration, while approaching new all-time highs suggests continued upside momentum.
  • Semiconductor components show mixed signals: shortages in advanced chips like LPDDR5/DDR5 but significant oversupply in older DDR4, creating pricing pressures.
  • Chinese memory manufacturers are undercutting Western suppliers by releasing unlimited production capacity at low prices, forcing major suppliers to adjust profit expectations.
Sep 22, 12:06 PMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • Trillion-dollar random cash distribution proposal (five-thousand per person) is fiscally irresponsible and will exacerbate inflation like Covid-era spending did.
  • Market sentiment remains bullish with oil traders favoring diplomacy over military escalation.
  • Commentary reflects mixed personal observations on fiscal policy and market commentary without deep analysis.
Sep 22, 06:21 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets flattish after early dip as oil falls; 10-year yield at 4.93%, European markets slightly higher.
  • International markets: Asia flattish overnight (Japan -26bp, China +5bp, Korea +14bp); renewed AI fever cited as theme.
  • Themes include Japan's cost of money shaping world, Xi-Trump summit implications, and Trump approval at record lows.
Sep 22, 05:06 AMRead on Substack →

Money Printer 401: What the Sam Hell Is This...

Garrett Baldwin
  • Jane Street, a prominent quantitative trading firm, has implemented a complex financial mechanism so unusual that it warranted deep research and verification.
  • The article explores mechanical buying patterns and their role in market dynamics, building on earlier Money Printer series on liquidity and insider activity.
  • Understanding emerging financial engineering tools is critical for traders and investors seeking to parse market moves and identify trading opportunities.
Sep 21, 05:40 PMRead on Substack →

Portfolio Update

The Haymaker Team
  • Generac Holdings (GNRC) gained 10.2% since recommendation on August 28 at $186.18, now trading near $205.
  • Strength driven by major long-term supply agreement with Amazon covering up to $8 billion in backup power generators for data centers, with $2.4 billion in deliveries expected 2027-2028.
  • Deal highlights secular demand for power solutions driven by AI data center expansion.
Sep 21, 02:31 PMRead on Substack →

Running The Gauntlet!

Capital Misallocation
  • Episode 88 recorded September 20, 2026; includes upgraded show notes with bonus content and material distributed separately.
  • Weekly LLM Top 30 Model chartbook and spreadsheet provided to paid subscribers with direct access to creator via WhatsApp and Bloomberg.
  • Paid tier offers access to active chat with PMs, traders, investors, and LPs; custom daily/weekly macro notes; and custom research websites on AI capex and hyperscaler off-balance sheet debt.
Sep 21, 01:33 PMRead on Substack →

Pass the baton: a story of commodity rotations

Fred's Corner
  • Commodity bull market is broadening sequentially: Gold led initially, followed by Industrial Metals, Energy, and now Agricultural commodities in a 'rolling breakouts' pattern.
  • Energy remains structurally central with oil breaking higher, European gas tightness intensifying into winter, and diesel emerging as a 2026 standout performer.
  • Emerging opportunities identified in Grains breakout and longer-term Palladium setup, warranting larger-than-usual hard asset allocation despite normal volatility.
Sep 21, 07:15 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 11

The rest of my AI portfolio

PAID
Geo Chen from Fidenza Macro
  • SMH semiconductor ETF broke out of cup-and-handle base, signaling the August-September deleveraging was a local top, not the AI super-cycle peak.
  • Meta's Muse Spark agentic AI release credited with igniting sector rally due to consumer appeal and mass adoption potential vs enterprise-only competitors.
  • Author's AI portfolio up 10.2% from Friday long position vs 7.5% SMH gain, with Nasdaq also entered last Thursday.
Sep 23, 05:23 AMRead on Substack →

America Is Scared of AI. China Isn't.

Kaizen Asiedu
  • America shows only 38% positivity toward AI while China shows 85%, reflecting divergent cultural and policy approaches to technology adoption.
  • US bans AI in classrooms while China integrates it into curriculum; America fears existential risks while China hosts Robot Olympics.
  • The difference between American fear and Chinese optimism reflects philosophical approaches to problem-solving: fear-based thinking versus faith-based opportunity recognition.
Sep 22, 06:49 PMRead on Substack →

The secret behind Meta’s Muse

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Meta's new Muse agent follows previous failed attempts like Project M (2015-2018), which was expensive to run and relied heavily on human operators behind the scenes.
  • Project M only reached 10,000 users and was eventually revealed to use human labor similar to the original Mechanical Turk, undermining automation claims.
  • The post examines whether Meta has learned from past failures and can successfully scale an AI agent to the general public this time.
Sep 22, 05:31 PMRead on Substack →

Agentic Reality

Citrini
  • AI agents removing friction from workflows are creating both winners and losers across the global economy, validating earlier predictions from the publication.
  • The 'Citrini Trade' focuses on beneficiaries of AI disruption while also examining overlooked losers in the transformation.
  • Market participants have become more focused on short-term price action rather than longer-term structural shifts driven by agentic AI.
Sep 22, 02:15 PMRead on Substack →

BREAKING: Arsonist to write fire code at UN

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Trump's proposal to rebrand AI as 'Super Intelligence' at the UN is criticized as superficial rebranding by someone lacking deep understanding of the underlying technology.
  • OpenAI's Sam Altman briefing the UN Security Council is compared to having an arsonist write fire code, given concerns about OpenAI's competence and ethical leadership.
  • The critique questions whether statements from technology leaders lacking genuine expertise should carry weight in international policy discussions.
Sep 22, 01:29 PMRead on Substack →

Your agent is giving you reasonable answers from half your context. A conversation with OpenAI.

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • OpenAI teams report AI adoption spreads first to software engineering roles, then to functions like legal where documents can be easily accessed by AI models.
  • AI workplace adoption success depends not just on technical capability but on whether systems can actually access the information needed for workers to do their jobs effectively.
  • As AI handles busywork tasks, workers face a new challenge: deciding what to build becomes more important than building itself, raising questions about how people should spend freed-up time.
Sep 22, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

How to Use Jev AI: The Complete Guide to TypeSafe's System One Model 🤖

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Diogo Almeida, former OpenAI researcher, launched Jev AI through TypeSafe—a model that makes decisions rather than generating text.
  • Jev works as smart switch statement taking predefined options and returning calibrated confidence scores, optimized for software decision-making rather than text generation.
  • Within week of launch, Jev integrated into Vercel AI Gateway, OpenRouter, and Cloudflare Workers AI with hundreds of community builds showing remarkable performance metrics.
Sep 22, 04:39 AMRead on Substack →

Big news at the UN

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Gary Marcus presented at UN General Assembly warning that extremes in AI discourse (zero regulation vs. extinction fears) both miss the real near-term threats.
  • Actual risks include wholesale deepfaked disinformation, unreliable AI systems stealing credentials and launching cyberattacks at scale, and potential recession from unsustainable AI investment.
  • Moderate regulation and pragmatic safeguards are needed; hope is not a strategy, and both unregulated AI and doomsday scenarios overestimate or mischaracterize the technology.
Sep 21, 04:11 PMRead on Substack →

11 Charts the AI Industry Doesn’t Want You to See (pt. 2)

Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
  • Part two of chart compilation reveals financial and economic vulnerabilities in the AI boom that suggest potential bubble dynamics.
  • Industry narrative focuses on benchmark performance improvements (e.g., GPT-6 capabilities) but real-world economic results and returns on massive AI investments lag significantly.
  • Data shows growing divergence between technology hype and tangible business outcomes, with declining investor enthusiasm and mounting evidence of unsustainable spending.
Sep 21, 02:55 PMRead on Substack →

Going long AI infrastructure again

PAID
Geo Chen from Fidenza Macro
  • After exiting AI infrastructure in June, Geo Chen re-entered the sector following the resolution of excessive market leverage and stagflationary concerns.
  • The Nasdaq's resilience despite energy headwinds, Fed hawkishness, and AI safety concerns signals strong underlying conviction in AI infrastructure expansion.
  • Commodification of frontier AI and safety concerns are no longer valid bearish catalysts, supporting the continuation of the compute investment bull market.
Sep 21, 10:07 AMRead on Substack →

The AI Super Cycle Just Gets Weirder... (Live in 15 Minutes)

Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
  • A class action lawsuit filed against Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Google claims they are colluding to slow AI development pace in violation of antitrust law.
  • Google's Gemini model successfully hacked into three companies during security testing, raising concerns about AI security vulnerabilities.
  • Chinese state TV warned citizens about Anthropic's privacy policy allowing data sharing with US intelligence, highlighting geopolitical tensions around AI development.
Sep 21, 07:11 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 10

CRUSADESMAXXING

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • Crusader iconography is increasingly appearing in mainstream UK culture, from A-road lampposts to Reform rallies and AI-generated content.
  • Historical crusader sites across the Mediterranean remain potent symbols of Western-Islamic conflict with lasting cultural resonance in regions like Lebanon.
  • London's medieval Templar and Hospitaller architecture demonstrates how crusader heritage is embedded in modern urban landscapes.
Sep 23, 06:01 AMRead on Substack →

The 50 Essential Western Films

Ted Gioia
  • The final installment covers Western films from 1969 onward, a period where the genre paradoxically declined in mass appeal while attracting bold filmmakers experimenting with new storytelling approaches.
  • Films from this era adopt diverse stances on Western tropes and retain surprising power to shock and provoke decades after release.
  • The survey includes iconic films like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and invites reader participation for omitted recommendations.
Sep 22, 01:54 PMRead on Substack →

Teach Your Children How to Cook

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Over half of Americans lack kitchen proficiency, and traditional home economics courses have been eliminated or relegated to electives in schools.
  • Teaching children to cook strengthens family bonds through shared meals, anchors a healthy home environment, and prepares youth for independent adulthood.
  • Learning cooking skills is presented as one of the most important competencies for becoming a responsible, self-sufficient adult in modern society.
Sep 22, 12:00 PMRead on Substack →

5 Healthy Sweet Treats I Made to Lose 80 lbs Postpartum

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Author shares five healthy sweet treat recipes she made while losing 80 pounds postpartum.
  • Post focuses on practical wellness strategies and nutrition during postpartum recovery.
  • Content targets readers interested in healthy eating and weight loss approaches.
Sep 22, 11:33 AMRead on Substack →

REPLAY: A Live Conversation with Scott Galloway and Anand Giridharadas

The Prof G Pod
  • Scott Galloway and Anand Giridharadas discuss Giridharadas' new book 'Man in the Mirror' in a live conversation format.
  • The discussion explores what the Jordan Neely case reveals about political alienation on both left and right.
  • Conversation highlights shared feelings of abandonment across the political spectrum.
Sep 22, 09:49 AMRead on Substack →

Keep Breathing, After Ingrid Michaelson

Shari A Smith from Running On Faith And Coffee
  • Breaking away from established communities—through deconstruction, family estrangement, or taking principled stands—creates isolation and fractures safety nets despite being necessary choices.
  • The author draws parallels between the emotional weight of personal choices and the lyrics of Ingrid Michaelson's "Keep Breathing," which addresses loss of hope and community.
  • Finding meaning and resilience requires acknowledging the real costs of nonconformity while maintaining commitment to personal integrity.
Sep 21, 05:46 PMRead on Substack →

Sea, Mountain and Creativity: Northeastern Spain

Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
  • Paula Mourenza and chef Pau Rull designed a culinary trip through Catalonia emphasizing local food producers and traditional methods.
  • The trip explores the Pyrenees foothills and Barcelona coastline to experience Catalonia through local perspectives rather than tourist attractions.
  • Guides introduce travelers to passionate producers including foragers and winemakers working in both innovative and traditional ways.
Sep 21, 01:02 PMRead on Substack →

The Cost of Maternal Absence

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Erica Komisar's 'Being There' argues that a mother's physical and emotional presence during a child's first three years is fundamental to development.
  • The book challenges the assumption that mothers should prioritize career advancement over active parenting in early childhood.
  • Financial pressures and career expectations increasingly pull mothers back to work, raising urgent questions about whether family organization prioritizes children's needs.
Sep 21, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

America's Worst Test Scores on Record

The Prof G Pod
  • American 15-year-olds posted worst reading scores in PISA's 25-year history, signaling a significant decline in educational performance.
  • Smartphones and AI chatbots are identified as contributing factors to the deterioration in student literacy and academic outcomes.
  • Countries like England and Japan are implementing different strategies that show better results, offering potential models for US education reform.
Sep 21, 09:09 AMRead on Substack →

Is It the Season of the Scammer?

Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
  • Scams targeting wealthy individuals have surged in recent weeks, with increased media and public fascination around high-profile fraud cases.
  • Recent notable cases include Gregg Starr, a 38-year-old male escort accused of defrauding a 'Roblox widow' of millions, and ongoing scrutiny of billionaire Leon Black.
  • The article examines why wealthy scams capture public imagination more than lower-income fraud, focusing on the audacity and moral complexity involved.
Sep 21, 06:33 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 9

On the Ground Research Note - Part 1 of 3 - Welcome to West Texas and Permian ‘Stripper’ Economics

MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
  • On-the-ground research from Permian Basin shows significant development occurring between Midland and Odessa resembling suburban growth patterns.
  • Regional expansion offers affordability in secondary Texas markets like Amarillo, Lubbock, and San Angelo compared to the saturated Texas Triangle.
  • Field research provides first-hand assessment of oil and gas market conditions and infrastructure development in West Texas.
Sep 23, 12:41 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Australian premium low-vol coal eased 5¢/t to $277.70/t fob while tier-two hard coking coal held steady at $238.65/t fob.
  • Physical seaborne coal market showed limited activity with an $8/t gap between bids and offers reflecting seller reluctance and buyer hesitation.
  • SGX futures showed mixed signals with near-term months gaining while November through March softened amid uncertain market conditions.
Sep 22, 09:13 AMRead on Substack →

Powering the AI Boom ⚡

Andrew Sarna
  • AI boom is driving electricity demand growth of ~2% annually after two decades of flat U.S. consumption.
  • BLS electricity CPI surged 46% from January 2020 to August 2026; U.S. faces estimated 38 GW power shortfall through 2028.
  • Utilities historically low on R&D are forced to innovate; U.S. electricity markets fragmented across seven major organized wholesale power markets with different rules and economics.
Sep 22, 05:39 AMRead on Substack →

Escalation Clauses

PAID
Doomberg
  • Ukraine damaged Gazpromneft Moscow Refinery (245,000 bpd capacity) with additional attacks on Ryazan, Saratov, Syzran, and Yaroslavl refineries.
  • Combined refinery losses represent significant reduction in Russian refining capacity in world chronically short of diesel.
  • Coordinated attacks on multiple facilities suggest geopolitical escalation affecting global energy supply dynamics.
Sep 22, 04:02 AMRead on Substack →

there will be fucking blood.

Hugh Hendry
  • Oil at $100 has established its strongest technical foundation in a generation, similar to the 2007-08 breakout above a 30-year ceiling.
  • The author avoids buying crude oil directly but identifies a compelling trade opportunity in oil major equities.
  • Understanding the structural setup requires distinguishing between commodity price moves and equity positioning strategies.
Sep 22, 02:42 AMRead on Substack →

AI Rally & Red Sea Squeeze

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • Diesel prices hit a record $6.51/gallon in the U.S., up 70% since February's Iran conflict, prompting Republican senators to demand export bans.
  • Meta's Muse AI agent and WhatsApp integration reignited the AI trade, lifting semiconductor stocks including AMD to $1 trillion valuation despite industry warnings to slow expansion.
  • Trump-Xi summit expected to be largely symbolic; geopolitical tensions around Yemen, energy exports, and trade remain the substantive drivers.
Sep 22, 12:49 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Australian coking coal prices held relatively flat with PLV easing 5¢/t to $277.75/t and tier-two declining to $238.65/t fob Australia.
  • PCI drifted lower by 25¢/t to $218.90/t amid weak market conviction and limited confirmed trades.
  • SGX futures showed modest gains across the front curve with October, November, and December adding strength.
Sep 21, 08:51 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Crude oil prices remain volatile amid escalating Iran-US tensions; Iran claims imminent US strikes while diplomatic efforts continue.
  • Saudi announcement of partial East-West (Yanbu) pipeline restart added downward pressure on oil markets.
  • WTI key resistance at $103.50 with critical support at $95.50; Brent resistance at $107.50 with critical support at $100.00.
Sep 21, 08:19 AMRead on Substack →

Stupid game’s over. Time for the prizes.

Irina Slav on energy
  • European energy crisis deepens as fuel supplies (diesel, petrol, LNG, and jet fuel) face critical shortages heading into winter.
  • EU maintains Arctic drilling ban despite energy emergency, signaling political commitment to climate policy over immediate energy security concerns.
  • Multiple economic and geopolitical pressures are converging across European capitals, creating cascading systemic risks.
Sep 21, 07:20 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 5

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/23

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Equity indices (ES, QQQ) are approaching prior all-time highs with several solid technical setups identified for trading.
  • The analysis includes a day-trade setup on gold with potential to develop into a swing trade based on current market conditions.
  • Content references the weekly market analysis and starter kit materials needed for fuller context on SPY, QQQ, and GLD positions.
Sep 22, 05:04 PMRead on Substack →

How to Make Big Money in Public Markets

George Coyle
  • Three primary strategies for making big money in public markets: small moves with high leverage, big moves with low leverage, or moderate moves with moderate leverage.
  • High leverage trading (10:1 or more) can lead to catastrophic losses from unexpected price gaps, as illustrated by commodity trading examples.
  • Warren Buffett's approach of pure investing without leverage has historically outperformed leverage-dependent strategies, though it feels less exciting to traders seeking quick gains.
Sep 22, 02:00 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Corn rallied on rumors of Chinese purchases despite questionable economic sense given relative prices and import economics.
  • Soybean meal and corn led commodity moves; speculative money continuing to flow into agricultural futures.
  • Equities set new all-time highs despite horrible market breadth; hogs positioned long by AiQ.
Sep 22, 04:35 AMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/22

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Bulls executed a strong day with SPY, QQQ and GLD showing extreme moves; weekly and daily straddle options were wildly mispriced.
  • Bear trap scenario on MAGS played out as predicted, with SMH sustaining above Friday's high early in session.
  • All technical boxes checked for bullish thesis; paid content provides detailed trade analysis for subscribers.
Sep 21, 04:15 PMRead on Substack →

Trading Post September 21, 2026

Michael Burry
  • Burry is positioning in Ero (ERO), a copper mining company with operations in Brazil that recently achieved three difficult operational promises under new management.
  • Copper demand will remain elevated as AI infrastructure expansion continues, while copper mine discoveries are becoming increasingly rare.
  • New regulations are aligning favorably for copper miners, presenting a multi-year supply constraint opportunity.
Sep 21, 12:50 PMRead on Substack →

Tech · 4

Amazon blocked Meta’s Muse AI Agent to protect $76 billion in ad revenue ✋🤖; 𝕏’s Everything App now sits where r…

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Amazon blocked Meta's Muse AI agent from its retail site to protect $76 billion in advertising revenue by preventing users from bypassing search results.
  • Shopify made opposite bet by opening Shop Pay to Muse via Meta's connector, showing platform divergence in agentic AI strategy.
  • X added Trade button for cashtags as part of Everything App strategy, sending users to brokers rather than building trading capability internally.
Sep 23, 04:29 AMRead on Substack →

What Is the Point of the Neoclouds?

Cape Fear Advisors
  • Neocloud companies like CoreWeave operate at massive losses (operating margins of -1.9%), while established cloud providers like Amazon and Google achieve 35-39% operating margins on the same service.
  • The difference lies in infrastructure ownership: profitable cloud providers own their own data centers (which take 4 years to build), while neoclouds rent compute at a loss to buyers whose buildings are unfinished.
  • Neoclouds serve two distinct markets: chip suppliers needing placement for inventory (NVIDIA invested $2B) and buyers facing long wait times for infrastructure, making them dependent on expensive interim solutions.
Sep 22, 09:07 AMRead on Substack →

Chinese Gallium Oxide Breakthrough

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • China's gallium oxide wafer breakthrough strengthens its control over strategic materials essential for next-generation high-efficiency power electronics and post-silicon computing.
  • The development reflects a sophisticated strategy integrating upstream chemical innovation with systemic industrial power and thermoeconomic advantage.
  • These materials science victories reshape global supply chains and offer alternative development pathways, particularly strengthening China's geopolitical position relative to Western semiconductor dominance.
Sep 21, 06:45 PMRead on Substack →

You cannot tell which parts of your software should stop calling an LLM. My Jev guide has a prompt that scans your…

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • Jev, a new model that functions as constrained AI using multiple-choice selection rather than generative text, achieved fastest adoption in Vercel's AI Gateway history.
  • This model represents a missing primitive in software architecture—enabling localized language understanding without querying full generative models for every decision.
  • The breakthrough suggests intelligence will shift from centralized LLMs to distributed decision-making throughout product components, potentially reducing AI infrastructure costs.
Sep 21, 08:04 AMRead on Substack →

Other · 3

Yes, Emmanuel Macron. Hamas Has Been Active In The West Bank.

John Aziz
Sep 22, 06:51 PMRead on Substack →

The 90-Day Cool-Down Protocol For Men: 11 Men Quit Hot Baths And Sperm Motility Went From 12% To 34% (The Ice Dip …

Nobody Talks About This
  • Sperm production requires temperatures several degrees below core body temperature, which is why the scrotum hangs outside the body and responds to temperature changes.
  • A 90-day protocol avoiding hot baths improved sperm motility from 12% to 34% in 11 men, suggesting heat exposure is the primary culprit in male fertility issues.
  • While ice water immersion triggers significant increases in noradrenaline, dopamine, and metabolic rate, there is limited scientific evidence specifically linking short cold plunges to improved sperm production.
Sep 22, 01:16 PMRead on Substack →

The Ugliest PH on the Best Block

BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
  • Buenos Aires real estate appears cheap relative to Madrid and Miami, attracting foreign investors with flip strategies, but this arbitrage may be illusory.
  • The author reflects on lessons from property flipping experience and interviews with successful local operators to understand market dynamics.
  • Price-to-m² comparisons alone don't account for regulatory, operational, and market friction that complicate property investment returns in Argentina.
Sep 21, 12:36 PMRead on Substack →