★ Priority · 17
Market Update & Signals 9/18/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- SPY remains in range with constructive week suggesting potential Q4 rally; targets $765-768 supply zone.
- VIX plunged to 15 'on schedule' and approaching downside target; emphasis on discipline and selective best setups.
- SMH pushing key resistance; positive momentum in AI/Hardware/Memory names.
TGIF: Experts Fear Worse Ahead
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Roundup covers Mitch McConnell health concerns, elder abuse allegations, and related political gossip.
- Promotional cross-promotion of Suzy Weiss's Second Thought podcast and Abigail Shrier's advice column.
- Format appears to be a mix of hard news commentary and lighter pop-culture content.
(Important) What Is The Endgame For The Oil Market?
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Major sell-side banks (JPM, Goldman, Morgan Stanley) are modeling oil market normalization without accounting for geopolitical outcomes, particularly Middle East conflict resolution.
- Historical failures in Goldman's Strait of Hormuz recovery forecasts demonstrate systemic flaws in analysis that ignores regional instability and war dynamics.
- Current oil market structure has fundamentally shifted; assuming gradual recovery without resolving underlying geopolitical conflicts represents wishful thinking rather than rigorous analysis.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Alibaba (BABA) calls bought in June at $120 strike rallied 40% in two months after both perma-bear Michael Burry and perma-bull Cathie Wood capitulated simultaneously.
- October BABA $120 calls are trading at $1.70 with stock at $108 one week before a potential Trump-Xi executive meeting.
- The contrarian signal of opposing ideological camps selling the same stock provided a rare contra-indicator opportunity for bullish positioning.
Niall Ferguson: Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Russian drone attacks on Western delegations near Ukrainian borders serve as intimidation messaging rather than direct targeting, paralleling classic siege warfare tactics.
- Ukraine's economic and political situation remains grimly sobering despite faint diplomatic progress opportunities.
- Putin's current strategy of drone incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks directed at NATO members appears calculated and continuing with relative impunity.
š¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a sharp messaging shift toward hawkishness with explicit language about 'removing accommodation' in the shortest FOMC presser on record.
- The Fed's clearer stance on tightening is dollar-bullish and represents a major messaging change from prior accommodative rhetoric.
- Most banks are already adjusting their rate trajectory forecasts upward in response to the hawkish Fed positioning.
The Hike We Need
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- The Fed's rate hike functioned as a clearing event that restored credibility rather than signaling the start of a hiking cycle.
- 16 of 18 Fed participants expect at least one more hike this year, but rates are priced for more aggressive tightening than likely delivered.
- Equity markets may rally as they recalibrate expectations for fewer hikes and focus returns to earnings fundamentals.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Fed hiked rates for first time since 2023; only one prior single-hike tightening cycle occurred in March 1997.
- Gold trading at $4,400 suggests Fed lacks true credibility despite unanimous rate hike decision.
- Houthis reached understanding with US officials; geopolitical tensions continue to shape market dynamics.
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- AI researcher Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic citing extinction risk; AI industry's existential concerns now reaching mainstream political attention.
- Unusual coalition including Archbishop, Bernie Sanders, and Steve Bannon convened at Pro-Human Assembly to debate AI existential dangers.
- Tension between industry calls for AI safety restraint and rapid advancement needed for societal benefits like healthcare breakthroughs.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- SPY held support post-FOMC; QQQ recovered gap fills overnight with Tech remaining resilient near highs.
- AAII survey shows 53% bears vs 29% bullsāmost bearish since May 2025āyet shallow dips continue to get bought.
- Cyclical/rate-sensitive stocks oversold while market trades sideways; shallow corrections being quickly reversed.
You Have A Voice. You Lost A Venue
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Macklemore used Ed Sheeran's tour platform for political activism, turning opening slot into a Trojan Horse for personal messaging.
- Sheeran removed Macklemore despite venue owner Robert Kraft's decision, prioritizing his global tour's commercial success over supporting the activist message.
- Tension between artist freedom of expression and platform owner's business interests; Sheeran's escape-focused pop show incompatible with Macklemore's activist approach.
Hold Your Applause for the New Gaza Documentary
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- NAZA documentary won Special Jury Prize at Venice but lacks rigorous corroboration for its central allegation of intentional IDF killing of civilians in Gaza.
- The film's argument falls short on editing standards, corroboration quality, and proper evidentiary support for distinguishing between excessive civilian casualties and intentional killing.
- Online discourse around the film exceeds the actual claims made, making careful examination of the filmmakers' published arguments essential before judgment.
A REVERSE GFC?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- The GFC saw subprime credit problems initially contained, only spreading to prime mortgages and big banks in late 2008 as delinquency rates rose.
- A reverse GFC dynamic may be emerging where a problem starting in one market segment could spread upward to damage prime credit and larger financial institutions.
- Historical market memory of crises like Black Monday and the GFC shapes how markets respond to similar patterns, potentially preventing recurrence in certain assets like the S&P 500.
Bari Weiss and Simon Sebag Montefiore LIVE on October 1
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore argues that U.S. foreign policy failures in the Middle East stem from fundamental misunderstandings of the region across the political spectrum.
- Twenty years of U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq, and ongoing tensions with Iran demonstrate the long-term consequences of these strategic miscalculations.
- A live discussion between Bari Weiss and Montefiore will explore the historical forces shaping the modern Middle East and what America has done right and wrong.
š¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- August retail sales exceeded expectations but remained inflationary-adjusted nominal data, not real growth, with consumers facing sticker shock on electronics.
- Federal Reserve decision imminent with mixed signals: author outlines cases for hold (avoiding midterm political optics), 25bp raise (standard move), and alternative paths.
- Broader economic backdrop shows consumer behavior divergence despite strong nominal headlines, with real purchasing power constrained.
- Fed decision framed as balancing committee cohesion against political pressure with Trump-era considerations potentially influencing stance.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- FOMC rate decision expected; market pricing shows potential for 25bps hike amid geopolitical tensions.
- Author critiques using rate hikes to fight inflation in wartime scenarios, comparing ineffective strategies.
- OpenAI fundraising mentioned amid ongoing AI safety concerns and doomster rhetoric.
trade prospecting ahead of the Fed meeting
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Fed meeting backdrop shows significant moves in 10-year yields (+20bps) and gold (-7%) since Jackson Hole.
- Post focuses on tactical trade prospecting using technical and positioning analysis rather than fundamentals.
- Author identifies key market dislocations as potential trade opportunities ahead of Fed announcement.
Politics · 16
Why Donāt More Independents Run in Big Cities?
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Republicans hold trifecta in 23 states, Democrats in 16, leaving one-party dominance limiting independent candidacies in most regions.
- In deep-red and deep-blue states, opposition parties are too weak to serve as viable landing spots for dissatisfied voters.
- Puzzle emerges: independent candidates emerge in Republican-dominated states but not in Democratic-controlled cities despite similar structural conditions.
The Takaichi Imperative
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Prime Minister Takaichi is reshaping Japanese governance with ambitious reforms and urgent policy agenda, breaking from consensus-driven politics of past seventy years.
- Cabinet selection process prioritizes merit and stated ambition via written letters rather than seniority and factional negotiation, signaling fundamental institutional change.
- Takaichi's approach mirrors Meiji-era 'Strong Country Strong Army' spirit, emphasizing accountability and concrete results over traditional old-boy network dynamics.
Palestinian Psychiatrist From Gaza Calls For An End To The Culture Of āDehumanisationā
John Aziz
- Palestinian psychiatrists and doctors recognize the immense damage Hamas's rule inflicted on Gaza and call for a change in direction.
- Hamas's dehumanization campaign through education, media, and religious institutions created a foundation of hatred that culminated in October 7.
- A broad spectrum of Palestinian society now acknowledges the necessity to end cycles of violence and dehumanization similar to patterns seen in other conflict zones.
AfD Are Not Neo-Nazis, But...
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Germany's AfD achieved a 44% vote share in Saxony-Anhalt with 78% turnout, marking a major victory for a far-right party in a country with strict anti-Nazi laws.
- A 93-year-old Holocaust survivor received death threats after criticizing the AfD's election success, highlighting growing antisemitism concerns.
- The article examines whether the AfD qualifies as neo-Nazi while analyzing the serious threat posed by the party's rise.
A Conversation with Austin Ruse: Defending Human Dignity at the UN
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Austin Ruse and C-Fam work to counter progressive attempts to redefine human rights at the UN, particularly regarding abortion and family rights.
- International organizations use global governance frameworks to bypass national sovereignties and impose secular human rights interpretations.
- C-Fam defends the Judeo-Christian understanding of human dignity against efforts to establish false international legal precedents.
What This Country Needs Is More Conservative Democrats!
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- The Democratic Party has shifted dramatically from 2000, when liberals were 28% of the party, to today's 59%, while conservatives dropped from 24% to 8%.
- Moderates have declined from a two-thirds majority to a minority position, giving liberals dominant control of the party direction.
- The party's leftward shift may have electoral consequences despite ideological satisfaction among the activist base.
The Iran War is breaking the world order
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- The Iran war is accelerating the breakdown of international order and exposing vulnerabilities in the Middle East's security architecture.
- Gulf states that relied on American protection now face strategic recalculation with trillions in defense spending at stake.
- Britain's intelligence sharing with Israel through MI6 demonstrates European strategic miscalculation regarding the regional conflict.
Why the BBC stopped listening to ordinary people
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- BBC journalist Sean McGinty was fired after 22 years for challenging his organization's coverage of Hamas, Israel, and October 7.
- McGinty's dismissal raises questions about editorial independence and whether the BBC has stopped listening to ordinary people's concerns.
- The case illustrates institutional reluctance to engage with alternative perspectives on contentious geopolitical issues.
Keep Pretending Nothing is Wrong
Mark Hasman
- Trump's trade war with Canada while praising dictators like Kim Jong Un represents a risky squandering of American diplomatic goodwill.
- Body positivity standards appear selectively applied, with Sydney Sweeney facing backlash for a sports gambling ad that would have been uncontroversial in different contexts.
- Inconsistent application of cultural standards suggests subjective judgment overrides principled consistency.
Do What You Want
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Fed chair Warsh delivered unanimous 25bp hike Trump opposed, asserting Fed independence against presidential pressure to lower rates.
- Trump publicly called for rate cuts and criticized the board as 'very hostile, very political' after pre-vote call with Warsh.
- Warsh defended Fed independence as 'two-way street,' urging Trump to stay in his lane on trade and fiscal policy while Fed controls monetary policy.
9/11 Did Not Doom the American Empire
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- 25 years post-9/11, debate over whether America is an empire resurfaces as Trump pursues aggressive foreign policy including Iran war and annexation fantasies.
- Some Bush-era neoconservatives explicitly described US as an 'empire' creating its own reality, contradicting official denials of imperial ambitions.
- Historical analysis examines whether 9/11 actually 'doomed' American empire or if current Trump policies signal continued imperial assertiveness.
A History Of The Slogan āFree Palestineā
John Aziz
- The slogan 'Free Palestine' originated with Jewish socialist Poale Zion in 1917, predating its modern usage by over a century with different historical context.
- Contemporary use of the phrase by figures like Macklemore carries vastly different political implications than its original Zionist-era meaning.
- Understanding the historical evolution of politically charged slogans requires examining their origins and how meaning shifts over time.
Britainās Child-Bride Scandal
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Official UK figures show over 100 forced marriage unit referrals of children 12 and under in five years, including 27 cases involving children five or younger.
- GB News exposed the data while mainstream media and politicians avoid naming the cultural and religious traditions sustaining the practice.
- Child marriage represents a fundamental violation of British values and family norms despite Britain's status as an advanced society.
The Truth About Israelās āETHNOSTATEā š®š± KILE B. JONES
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Israel is frequently labeled an ethnostate, but researcher Kile Jones's 'Ethnostate Test' report reveals findings that contradict this common characterization.
- Many other countries fit the ethnostate definition far more accurately than Israel based on measurable criteria and demographic patterns.
- The podcast episode examines how language and framing shape perceptions of Israel relative to other nations in discussions of national identity and demographics.
Bo French Aināt No Shelby Steele
Eli from Man of Steeleās Substack
- Texas Railroad Commission nominee Bo French posted a video screenshot from a UT football celebration claiming it showed the diversity problem worsening, focusing on South Asian faces.
- The incident highlights how selective framing of neutral images can be weaponized to push divisive narratives about demographic change.
- The article critiques French's interpretation, arguing that the same image shows simply Americans celebrating their university's sports victory, not evidence of a broader social problem.
Legalizing Marijuana Was a Mistake
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Marijuana legalization was justified as a cost-saving reform eliminating incarceration and police resource waste, but has created unintended consequences.
- Legalization transformed marijuana into a commercialized consumer product industry rather than simply decriminalizing personal use.
- The article argues policymakers falsely assumed only two options existedāmass incarceration or broad legalizationāmissing moderate alternatives that could have better served public order and human flourishing.
Culture · 14
Secrets of great conversation, Oscar Wildeās annoying brother, new prized possession
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Author discusses personal travel plans to Nepal and reflects on the role of dreams in life decisions.
- Essay explores how AI creativity challenges human self-esteem by drawing parallels to historical paradigm shifts like the Copernican Revolution.
- Touches on broader cultural anxieties about technological disruption and human uniqueness in the age of generative AI.
Charlie Kirk Didn't Even Believe In Race (Now on Video)
Kaizen Asiedu
- Author transitioning focus to long-form video content on YouTube while maintaining Substack as primary written archive for complete thinking.
- New video series examines five major distortions about Charlie Kirk's statements on race, using full clips and actual data.
- Long-form video format allows for deeper exploration of ideas with lasting value beyond short-form social media cycle.
A Trip to the ER -- and a Public Service Message
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Author recounts personal experience of chest pain symptoms and delayed medical attention due to minimization of initial warning signs.
- Narrative explores psychological tendency to rationalize physical discomfort and incorporate symptoms into routine rather than seek professional evaluation.
- Essay includes public service messaging about recognizing serious medical symptoms and importance of appropriate healthcare response.
8 LIES You've BELIEVED Your Whole Life
Nobody Talks About This
- Average erect penis length is approximately 13.1 cm based on professional measurements, contrary to inflated common beliefs.
- Women's sexual satisfaction depends on individual variation and stimulation preferences, not penetration alone or partner size.
- Sexual desire fluctuates based on stress, sleep, emotional state, hormones, and relationship dynamics rather than remaining constant.
My Favorite Philip K. Dick Novels
Ted Gioia
- Philip K. Dick's novels featuring illusory realities once felt like entertaining sci-fi but now function as disturbing social commentary on contemporary life.
- Dick's work has transitioned from escapist pulp fiction to allegories and parables for modern times, making him essential reading as an iconoclastic thinker.
- The joke that reality resembles Dick's novels is no longer amusing but rather serves as a warning about simulation, construct, and hallucination themes.
The ice cream shopper
Mark Phillips from The Till
- The author reflects on lessons learned from a summer job at an ice cream shop, emphasizing quality control and customer service fundamentals.
- Early access to premium products (organic, high-fat milk, Madagascar vanilla) at premium prices demonstrated consumer willingness to pay for quality.
- The piece serves as a meditation on first-job experiences and their lasting professional and personal impact.
Now the music industry is against cancel culture?
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Ed Sheeran fired Macklemore from his Loop Tour after the rapper promoted pro-Palestine messaging, drawing solidarity from other artists.
- Multiple support acts and Sheeran's backing band withdrew in support of Macklemore, citing Israel-related activism.
- The piece critiques the music industry's embrace of cancel culture for pro-Palestinian activism while framing it as a sudden reversal on the cancel culture issue.
Tahini-Maple Cookies
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Rosie developed a Tahini-Maple Cookie recipe using white maizo (corn-based miso) from Yoli Tortilleria's fermentation project.
- The recipe combines buckwheat and millet flours with tahini, maple syrup, and olive oil to create an earthy, fall-season cookie.
- The cookie creation emerged from experimentation with three corn koji varieties received in a care package from a collaborator.
Keep promises on your bad days
Sara
- Perfectionist traders often set unrealistic expectations based on best-case scenarios, then lose self-trust when real-world complications arise.
- Breaking commitments on bad days erodes self-trust more than adjusting systems to account for realistic capacity constraints.
- Maintaining promises on difficult days requires building systems around worst-case capacity rather than optimal conditions.
When I Fail, It Usually Comes Down to This
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Author's ministry succeeds when focused on unique strengthsācreating new lessonsārather than delegating to others.
- Creative temperament and 1,000+ facilitated Bible studies position author as optimal fit for lesson development.
- Wisdom lies in recognizing personal aptitudes and avoiding delegation of core competencies that drive organizational value.
Healthy Cinnamon Pumpkin Bread
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Healthy cinnamon pumpkin bread recipe provides 97 calories per slice with 4g protein, 30g carbs, and 1g fat per serving.
- Recipe uses plant-based protein powder as optional ingredient, adaptable for all-purpose or gluten-free flour preferences.
- Single loaf yields 8 slices and can be served plain or with butter topping.
Smashed Beef Tacos (part 2): a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Smashed beef tacos use ground beef pressed thin onto a hot pan to create a dark crust and are topped with previously made salsa macha and charred tomatillo salsa.
- Corn tortillas are essential for achieving the proper flavor and texture pairing with the beef and salsas, while ground beef can be adjusted for richness or health preferences.
- The recipe leverages leftover salsas from a previous preparation, keeping the technique simple and allowing the salsas to provide most of the dish's flavor.
BRAISED SHORT RIBS
Ana Sofia Fehn
- Recipe post for braised short ribs triggered by rainy Sunday weather in LA and power outage providing time for meal planning.
- Detailed ingredient list and instructions provided for short ribs with red wine braise, confit garlic butter, and mashed potato sides.
- Author suggests pressure cooker as time-saving alternative for busy home cooks.
- Post positions dish as signature cozy-weather comfort food alongside French onion soup and butternut squash agnolotti.
Shifting Baseline Syndrome is Making WALL-E a Reality
Chaotic Neutral
- Shifting baseline syndrome describes how Americans normalize increasing obesity despite static medical definitions of healthy weightāaverage gained 30 pounds over 1960-2020.
- Self-reported ideal weight has drifted upward in lockstep with actual weight; Americans claim ideals 15 pounds below reality, but both metrics rising together.
- Average American woman now 0.2 BMI points from obesity threshold (30), average man at 29.5 BMI, meaning population clinically obese on average.
- Phenomenon illustrated through barber anecdote in Istanbul highlighting how non-Americans perceive American obesity as aberration rather than normalcy.
Energy · 10
Another Piece Comes Off the Energy Chessboard ā and Benefits More than Iran
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at lowest level since 1982 (285M barrels, ~40% capacity), limiting emergency shock absorption.
- Weekly SPR withdrawals have slowed dramatically to near-zero as the March emergency exchange nears completion.
- Iran-backed disruptions (Houthi attacks on Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz damage to Saudi pipelines) now lack key buffers, raising costs and complexity of global oil flows.
Coming to America
PAIDDoomberg
- Middle East escalation accelerates: Houthis advance on Red Sea, Saudi East-West Pipeline damaged, global diesel crunch imminent.
- Strategic reserves depleted, alternative routes stretched, demand deferredāpostponement tactics exhausted as situation worsens materially.
- Saudi Arabia's vulnerability grows as U.S. military backing questioned; MBS faces emerging threats from foreign and domestic enemies.
The New Cold War
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Recent PNAS study on fluidless magnetocaloric solid-state cooling breakthrough has significant implications for energy efficiency in computational systems.
- Declining EROEI (energy return on energy invested) makes negentropic interventions critical for reducing energy parasitism in information processing infrastructure.
- Thermodynamic efficiency of physical systems, not digital abstractions, will determine long-term geopolitical leverage and economic resilience in new cold war competition.
Oil to $240!
Benny and The Squirrel
- Crude oil production faces a well productivity slowdown, signaling rising development costs that marginal cost analysis suggests could push oil to $240.
- Big Tech's trillion-dollar capex spending mirrors Big Oil's 2013 cycle patterns, indicating potential market parallels and timing implications.
- Energy equity cycle appears in inning four or five with parabolic euphoria still ahead, suggesting further upside potential in the sector.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Seaborne thermal coal prices declined modestly with PLV fob Australia down 30Ā¢/t to $280/t amid thin buying interest.
- Improved Mongolian logistics easing some supply pressure, but Chinese traders holding firm offers are limiting downside.
- SGX futures showed mixed trading with front contracts holding while longer-dated curve remained largely untouched.
Headlines: September 2026
Irina Slav on energy
- Fashion industry greenhouse gas emissions increased 14% over 2023-2024, reaching 1 gigaton annuallyāequivalent to Japan's entire climate footprint.
- Polyester production growth and expanded global fiber manufacturing drive emissions increase.
- War in Middle East emerging as unlikely factor in climate solutions for apparel industry.
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/16
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Oil pullback to low-to-mid 90s for front-month WTI remains possible and would be positive technically and fundamentally.
- Single TACO (one major event) remaining for oil prices is another SPR release, unlikely to trigger at $102/bbl spot price.
- Export ban threat for diesel is real risk that could spook refined product markets as diesel and gasoline re-rate higher at pump, worsening inflation.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 9-11-16
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Total crude and product inventories increased 2.6 MMB for the week ending 9-11-16, with gasoline and distillate builds partially offset by propane draws.
- US crude production remains at estimated record levels while crude inventories sit 1% above seasonal average; SPR releases continue at minimal levels.
- WTI spot at $102 is fairly valued based on EIA inventory models, with improving US import and export dynamics.
Three Stocks with Big Upside Potential from Higher Oil Prices
Bison Insights
- Oil prices surged to $105.4/barrel on September 15, nearing early Iran conflict highs and validating a bullish signal from July.
- Author identifies three oil producer stocks positioned to benefit materially from higher oil prices through increased cash flow and equity value.
- Analysis references previous deep-dive reports on specific producers including one using 'moneyball' strategy and another focusing on buybacks and debt reduction.
- Investment thesis depends on sustaining elevated oil prices above $100/barrel for portfolio value realization.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatility coal slipped $1.20/t to $280.30/t with compressed liquidity and thin trading across the board.
- Premium coking coal (PCI) fell harder at $3.20/t decline to $223.15/t, suggesting sellers finding difficulty locating bids rather than vice versa.
- Singapore Exchange showed more constructive price action with October through December contracts building strength, up $2-8/t sequentially.
- Market characterized by compressed fob survey range and challenging physical tape conditions despite relative strength in futures curve.
Macro · 10
BoJ Ueda: Virtually no chance of an October hike
Japan Macro Advisors
- BoJ Governor Ueda signaled virtually no chance of an October rate hike, directly tamping down market speculation.
- Ueda forcefully rejected likelihood of 0.5% hike or consecutive hikes, reserving such measures only for emergency inflation scenarios.
- Ueda emphasized BoJ responsibility to prevent inflation from rising sizably above target through gradual policy adjustment.
A hard money Fed will collide with the mother of all AI credit bubble in 2027
Matein Khalid from Mateinās Substack
- Fed's September 16, 2026 routine 0.25% hike ranks among scariest market days (alongside Lehman collapse, 9/11, 1992 sterling crisis).
- Author warns collision between hard-money Fed and 'mother of all AI credit bubble' in 2027 will rival 1992-2008 crises.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent manages $40 trillion debt amid unwinnable forever war; global markets face seismic fallout from policy tightening into AI-driven excess.
Managed Independence is Everywhere
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25% following pressure from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, but market dissent signals limited room for further tightening.
- Yen weakened despite the rate hike, with traders betting the BOJ cannot sustain policy tightening due to political resistance from Prime Minister Takaichi's appointees.
- Global bond market selloff since 2024 reflects shifting expectations about currency management and central bank credibility in coordinated monetary policy.
From One Policy Error To The Next
Capital Flows
- Risk cannot be destroyed only transferred across nominal and real purchasing power terms in global markets.
- Both policymakers and companies operate under nominal and real purchasing power constraints that mechanically drive capital flows.
- Market narratives about macro mechanics often resemble shadows on a wall rather than understanding the actual mechanics underneath.
The Fed Just Hiked Rates. The Bond Market Disagreed.
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with signals for one more hike, but the bond market disagreed with the hawkish stance by lowering the 10-year Treasury yield.
- Current inflation is driven by supply shocks (oil at $105, record diesel spreads) not demand, making rate hikes ineffective at controlling price pressures.
- Economic fundamentals are weak with revised-lower payrolls, 1.5% real growth, and a shrinking workforce, mirroring 2008 conditions before a deflationary bust.
Theme in Focus: Global Equities
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- The Fed's 25 basis point rate hike to 4% should be followed by approximately 100 more basis points of tightening according to the author's indicators.
- Global ex-US equities represent a distinct investment theme with specific risk factors and catalysts outlined in the broader macro analysis.
- The analysis provides bullish assessment for rest-of-world equities in absolute terms while contextualizing Fed policy decisions.
The Hike Isnāt the Aggressive Part
Global Macro Method
- Fed raised target range to 3.75-4.00%; market pricing shows three additional quarter-point hikes with minimal easing through 2027.
- Higher oil prices combined with persistent inflation and resilient demand create tension in rate path sustainability.
- Energy shocks can initially support hawkish policy but higher borrowing costs may weaken demand needed to sustain the cycle.
Post FOMC - cautiously bullish
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- FOMC delivered 25bp hike with median dot plot supporting another hike in 2026; SOFR markets pricing 3.5 additional hikes over 12 months.
- Market initially sold equities and bought USD on hawkish signals, but both moves reversed within 12 hours; author closed short ES, BTC, and Nasdaq put positions.
- Nominal GDP running at 7% and large short Treasury positioning may explain market resilience despite negative catalysts including Iran tensions and AI slowdown talk.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish 25bp rate hike with unanimous FOMC support, emphasizing price stability and elevated inflation concerns.
- The Fed's dot plot showed broad consensus despite one outlier projecting four cuts in 2027, demonstrating Warsh's ability to maintain cohesion.
- Author expects tactical shifts for upside in 2027 and views welfare policy changes as a first loss for Trump 2.0 agenda.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Fed rate decision expected with 93% CME probability of 25bp hike under Warsh leadership.
- Author speculates Warsh may hold rates to squeeze bond shorts despite independent Fed mandate.
- AI doomism critiqued as unfounded apocalyptic narrative similar to past hysteria cycles.
AI · 6
Nuance Labs Is Betting That Text Broke AI Conversation š£ļø
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Nuance Labs raised $50M Series A (NVIDIA, Lightspeed, Accel) with no product in market and no public traction metrics.
- Company founded by three ex-Apple researchers bets core thesis: text breaks AI conversation by losing hesitation, rhythm, gaze, and facial cues.
- Current visual agents convert speechātextāLLM responseāaudioāanimated face; Nuance argues architecture itself is the problem, not component quality.
Liability, regulation, and AIās new false dichotomy
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- AI companies must be held liable for damage they cause, but liability alone is insufficient without corresponding regulation.
- Tech libertarians falsely present liability and regulation as mutually exclusive, when both mechanisms are necessary for meaningful accountability.
- Without AI-specific regulation suited to the current landscape, liability frameworks become pointless and ineffective.
How to improve your skills with evals
Khe Hy
- LLM evaluations require unbiased, consistent, and repeatable rules rather than subjective 'vibes' to properly assess output quality.
- Binary yes/no evaluation frameworks work well for verifiable tasks like software engineering but fail for subjective domains like sentiment analysis.
- Building effective personal agents requires establishing evaluation benchmarks that handle both quantifiable metrics and qualitative assessments.
The Prisonerās Dilemm-AI
AP Research
- AI industry leaders face prisoner's dilemma: mutual distrust prevents coordinated slowdown in development despite calls for restraint.
- Anthropic CEO advocates for safeguards and independent evaluations; OpenAI and xAI leaders express support but skepticism remains.
- Advanced AI agents increasingly capable of deception and harder to monitor, creating tension between safety and beneficial technological progress.
OpenAI overtakes Anthropic in developer AI spend for the first time since 2024 š³š; UK banks plan Visa rival. Theā¦
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- OpenAI flips developer AI spend lead over Anthropic for first time in 2.5+ years following new model releases.
- UK banks raise Ā£50M to build domestic Visa/Mastercard rival through DeliveryCo payments initiative.
- Analysis of Brazil's Pix and India's UPI reveals payment system success hinges on displacing card networks rather than just coexistence.
Sam Altman says trust me; Jensen Huang says everything is going to be fine; Bernie Sanders says AI is more dangeroā¦
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Sam Altman's recent claims about trustworthiness in AI governance lack credibility and are contradicted by his own 2021 statement that people should not trust him.
- Jensen Huang's optimistic claims that AI risks will be managed by market forces and corporate incentives are presented as unconvincing by the author.
- All three prominent figures (Altman, Huang, Sanders) made claims the author finds nonsensical despite being delivered with apparent conviction.