★ Priority · 12
đŹ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SOXX down 3% with SK Hynix declining 16% amid broader semiconductor weakness.
- Brent crude up 3% as geopolitical tensions escalate with potential US action at Hormuz.
- Meme bottoms and tops framework being applied to track extreme market reversals across asset classes.
A Violent Market Pretending to Be Calm
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- SPX at 7,575 nearing 7,700 target with 125 handles remaining; momentum breadth deteriorating despite index strength.
- Multiple momentum factors down 20+ percentage points while SOX normalized from 80% above 200-day MA to 46%.
- Mag7 suffered ~15% correction indicating disconnect between index performance and underlying market health.
The Meme-rithmic Scaleâ˘
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Meme-rithmic Scale tracking extremes: BABA 'Burry Wood' bottom triggered at $93 now $113 (3x gain); Crude 'Economist' bottom at $72 now $78.
- SOXX 'SK Hynix ADR' meme top at $600 level signals key risk-off indicator; NASDAQ 'Buffett' meme top reflects major valuation reversal.
- Systematic tracking of meme bottoms and tops helps identify extremes across asset classes as traditional metrics become unreliable.
The Secret to Lindsey Grahamâs Success. The Professor Who Has Had It with All the AI Cheating. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Lindsey Graham's death sparks debate on his legacy, ranging from Trump/Netanyahu praise to criticism over principle abandonment.
- Coverage explores whether AI can think amid broader cultural themes including Maine Democrats and Wikipedia misinformation.
- Punditocracy divisions reveal ongoing partisan tensions regarding Graham's alliance with Trump despite prior opposition.
đŹ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacroâs Substack
- Long USD positioning has risen sharply while the USD itself has failed to confirm the move, indicating potential divergence in currency flows.
- Bank of America's bull/bear indicator is at 9.5/10 extremes alongside surging panic indices, option skews, and megacap tech call volume, signaling high leverage and positioning risk.
- South Korea's KOSPI has halted trading seven times this year with an -8% overnight swing, suggesting semiconductor cyclicality concerns are intensifying in Asian markets.
Tough Love: I Canât Talk to My Wife About Money
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- 20-year marriage stalled by money conflicts: husband prioritizes saving for future expenses while wife spends without budget constraints.
- Wife maintains separate accounts and resists joint financial transparency, randomly transferring money between accounts and withholding contribution commitments.
- Husband's anxiety about bonuses and future obligations clashes with wife's spending habits and mother's advice on financial independence, creating recurring fights.
You Can Lead a Horse to Water
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Prize-winning research confirms passive flowsânot vanishing skillâcompress active manager returns and distort valuations.
- Six independent literatures identify the same mechanism: passive index ownership inflates largest names, reduces research production, and shifts price discovery to market makers.
- The 'poker table' thesis fails to explain the observed sign flip in Active Share timing or alpha compression patterns.
- Retail noise trading reaches record highs while correctors starve and market makers post historic profits, creating a casino dynamic.
SENTIMENT CAPITULATION.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Institutional investors are capitulatingâfund closures and strategy liquidations mark a rare signal comparable to Buffett's 1969 partnership closure at peak bubble.
- Historical precedent shows these capitulation moments coincide with unsustainable valuations and exhaustion of alpha-generating opportunity sets.
- Current analysis examines correlated factor risks across semiconductors, MAG7, China tech, metals, and FX that could dominate asset allocation through 2026.
- A new thematic long position is presented as a diversification opportunity amid the broader sentiment capitulation and factor realignment.
present tense
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Author is taking 12+ year-old students through a hands-on investment lab to buy their first real portfolios, covering fundamentals from business analysis to stock picking.
- Course materials explain how investment returns are generated, the importance of time horizon, portfolio construction, and practical rules for selecting individual stocks.
- Investment Beginnings course includes recap guide covering businesses, compounding, risk, market mechanics, valuations, fees, and three starter portfolio templates.
The Gay Cruise
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- A 2000-passenger gay cruise was denied docking rights in both Turkey and Egypt due to religious and cultural opposition to LGBTQ+ travelers.
- Turkish authorities explicitly stated the passengers' behavior conflicted with national values and moral standards, rejecting even tourism revenue.
- The incident exposes the contradiction when LGBTQ+ travelers assume they can visit countries where homosexuality is illegal or severely punished.
FROM THE ARCHIVE - IS GOLD BUYING A LEADING INDICATOR OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Historical analysis shows elevated gold buying frequently precedes financial crises, particularly from depositors fearing bank failures.
- Gold buying in India surged before the country's currency and financial crisis, with gold falling first and then rising in rupee terms.
- Consumer gold demand patterns can serve as a leading indicator of financial distress across different economies and time periods.
FROM THE ARCHIVE - PEAK OIL PRICE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Current global energy spending as a percentage of GDP matches levels from the late 1970s oil shock when crude reached $35/barrel.
- China exhibits severe energy inefficiency compared to Japan and South Korea, consuming more energy per GDP dollar despite having abundant coal resources.
- Oil prices rising from $10 in 1999 to $119 in 2008 represent a sustained multi-decade bull market with limited press coverage at recent highs.
Macro · 16
Australian Rates: The Market Is Too Relaxed About Sticky Inflation
Global Macro Method
- Australian rate markets are pricing in too benign an inflation path, underestimating sticky services and domestic cost pressures.
- RBA unlikely to declare victory early given persistent underlying inflation despite potential headline moderation.
- Short-rate curve offers attractive risk-defined positioning opportunity ahead of CPI data and RBA meetings.
Rising Yields, Weak Yen, and AI Demand
Andrew Sarna
- 10Y U.S. yields rose 8bp as Energy and Tech outperformed; Middle East tensions continue pressuring commodities.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic declining as U.S.-Iran strikes escalate; little evidence China's fossil fuel consumption is actually falling despite oil price softness.
- Micron earnings highlight AI competition risk despite strong H100 GPU demand, questioning whether windfall profits can persist.
Liquidity, Commodities and Bond Stress: The Next Market Sell-Off Risk?
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- High equity valuations alone rarely end bull markets; the real risk is whether global liquidity can continue supporting leverage and collateral demand.
- Bond and commodity markets are emerging as the clearest pressure points where liquidity stress could manifest.
- The sustainability of the current market cycle depends more on macro funding conditions than valuation levels.
Mythic Atlas Report â Issue 02
Mythic Market Research from Mythicâs Substack
- The Growth Engine signals Stage 4 Constructive with full allocation to non-US equities, supported by labor, global, markets, and business indicators.
- The Economic Momentum Index at 1.59 shows an expansion that is cooler and later-cycle than headlines suggest, running 46% below its 15-year average.
- Weakness concentrates in Consumer, Liquidity, and Housing categories while strength derives from labor and global indicators, creating a fragile Stage 4 signal.
The Maradona Theory of Interest Rates
Substack - Alf (The Macro Compass)
- Mervyn King's 'Maradona approach' to central banking involves signaling hawkish and dovish positions while ultimately maintaining steady rates without significant movement.
- US real consumer spending and cyclical hiring plans are running below historical averages, suggesting limited room for rate changes despite Fed communications.
- The framework suggests Fed Funds may remain stable for an extended period despite rhetoric shifting between hawks and doves.
Hyperscaler Debt Appetite Widens Credit Spreads
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Escalating US-Iran military exchanges, including fourth-wave airstrikes and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have not triggered broad market panic.
- Markets are treating the Persian Gulf conflict as a persistent structural condition similar to the 1980s Tanker War rather than a binary crisis event.
- Oil continues flowing through guarded corridors and alternative routes while Brent crude rose modestly to $79, reflecting a 'live with it' market mentality despite geopolitical risk.
Weekly Macro Note: War Resumes (Again), Hormuz Traffic Analysis, Why War Is Bullish, A Look at Asian Markets Part 3
MacroEdge Research
- Iran is escalating control of the Strait of Hormuz because oil prices have fallen too far, with Tehran targeting $85/bbl Brent crude to satisfy economic needs.
- Hormuz traffic has fallen almost to zero by mid-July while global strategic petroleum reserves (excluding China) are at near-bottom levels, creating supply vulnerability.
- Resolution requires either military escalation to control Hormuz or acceptance of higher oil prices; either path is inflationary and Trump administration faces a difficult choice.
Running Out of Runway
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Consumer credit contracted in May 2026 for the first time since November 2024, contrary to Wall Street expectations of growth.
- Falling credit balances can signal either household deleveraging or inability to borrow further due to over-leverage.
- Media narrative of healthy balance sheets may mask deteriorating creditworthiness beneath identical surface data.
Walk in the Pines #405
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Weekly brief curates charts, Seneca quote on wisdom of rejecting excess, and cross-publication reads on macro themes.
- Highlights Japan's pension fund investment policy, China helium export ban, and Iran geopolitical strategy as key reads.
- Format emphasizes curated insights and philosophical perspective on navigating prosperity and adversity.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Gold weekly close at $4,119 needs to hold $3,768 support or faces larger correction; central banks added 14.93 tonnes in June alone.
- Silver quarterly shows past bull markets took 14-31 years to reach new highs; AI-driven data center power demand up 5,200% since 2000 in deficit.
- US gold ETFs total $239B versus Nvidia's $4.71T; gold market liquidity reached record $488B daily; China's largest fund is now a gold ETF.
Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 12, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Oil rebounded 4% weekly after three vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, breaking a long losing streak and reigniting inflation fears.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1% led by Nvidia (+4%) and Meta (+6%), while the Dow slipped 0.5% as tech outperformed industrials and financials.
- The tape flipped from the prior week when Dow set records and tech faltered, now showing tech-led momentum and renewed AI trade strength.
- SK Hynix's U.S. listing debut tested the AI memory sector amid a split market between crude's inflation rally and technology's continued strength.
Life Support
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Existing home sales in June hit 4.09M (seasonally adjusted annualized), below 2008 financial crisis levels on a per-household basis despite population growth.
- Median existing home price reached an all-time record $440,600 for the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.
- The simultaneous crisis-level volume and all-time-high prices signal a market with a pulse but struggling transaction health and momentum.
- Market health is measured by whether anything is actually moving, not by the latest price printâcurrently the patient shows declining activity despite record valuations.
Turning Point
Macro Musings by Danny D
- This week marks a turning point with major CPI/PPI inflation data and retail sales that will determine if July rate hikes are live or delayed.
- A data-heavy calendar includes Fed speakers and congressional testimony from Warsh, plus geopolitical risks in Hormuz as a ceasefire MOU expires.
- Technical indicators suggest multiple trading opportunities across positioning; author uses charts to highlight key levels across assets.
Count Binface & The Rise of Economic Statecraft
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- U.S. bombed Iran sites while claiming ceasefire talks continued; SK chipmaker posted 19x profit jump then lost $100B market cap; Fed gave central banking future to venture capitalist and retail executives.
- 'HyperNormal' describes how broken systems continue performing old rituals and forecasts as performance theater while everyone privately knows it isn't working.
- Economic statecraft and systemic breakdown are masking themselves through the continuing performance of normalcy in geopolitics, markets, and institutions.
Alpha Extraction Hiding in Rotation
Global Macro Method
- U.S. market prices a resilient economy sustaining earnings and credit while Fed stays restrictive, creating difficult outcome profile with front-end rate hike risk and long-end term premium.
- Investors rotating from cash-rich AI/platform companies into financials, healthcare, and utilities while staying cautious on housing and financing-sensitive discretionary demand.
- CPI data will determine whether equity barbell broadens into healthier rally or concentrates further; Treasury curve signals both tightening risk and higher nominal neutral rate compensation.
Six Guys and a Yacht
The Brawl Street Journal
- A London High Court ruling on Nord Stream AG v Lloyd's Insurance exposed the second-order economic consequences of asset freezing policies.
- The case highlights how moral satisfaction from sanctions can backfire commercially, with insurers denying claims for war-related pipeline damage.
- Policymakers often fail to consider how confiscation of foreign assets undermines trust in financial systems and future lending willingness.
Markets · 15
The Death of Investment. The Sequel. (Money Printer Pro)
Garrett Baldwin
- Passive indexing has rendered individual stock picking nearly pointless, fragmenting markets and destroying price discovery mechanisms.
- Societe Generale quantitative research argues indexing 'broke the markets' by making fundamentals irrelevant versus momentum flows.
- Strategy advocates using momentum signals for market entry and hedging as traditional investment thesis framework has become obsolete.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Key focus this week: Warsh Congressional testimony, U.S./EU CPI data, and earnings from Netflix, TSMC, and major banks.
- Author observes Americans thriving despite political dysfunction; inconsistency in immigration enforcement narratives across administrations.
- Markets slightly lower amid geopolitical tensions; bonds and oil marginally higher.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- Markets slightly lower amid U.S.-Iran tensions with tech sector weakness dragging equities; Europe up given lack of tech exposure.
- Geopolitical risk-off mode with Korea down 9%; China decline outpacing AI tailwinds despite strong AI adoption.
- Oil rallied 2% on Strait of Hormuz concerns; crypto soft with BTC down 1.7% as growth assets struggle.
Calmer Indices, Wilder Stocks
AP Research
- The S&P 500 finished higher despite early-week geopolitical stress around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, as dip buyers returned to tech late-week.
- Samsung's disappointing earnings initially rippled across the semiconductor complex, but SK Hynix's successful US debut (largest foreign IPO) provided sector reassurance.
- Information technology, energy, and communication services led gains while materials, healthcare, and staples lagged, showing a reversal of recent defensive rotation.
Plumbing Notes: The Equity Repo Mania
Conks
- Equity repo funding rates have surged and contracted sharply as dealer balance sheets experienced massive demand swings.
- Rising leverage, soaring stock prices, IPO booms and AI meltup temporarily overwhelmed primary dealers' capacity to finance equity positions.
- Shift from rate cut expectations to rate hike potential has reduced demand for U.S. sovereign assets, affecting dollar funding market rates.
CoreWeave, Twenty-Seven Years
Cape Fear Advisors
- CoreWeave's Q1 2026 operations generated $968M in cash but spent $7.7B on equipment, requiring constant refinancing at 9.1% average cost.
- Machines generate only 99 cents per dollar invested and depreciate in 6 years, with 44-78 cents still owed at end-of-life while book value hits zero.
- All company debt matures by October 2032 requiring money to be raised 4.5+ times over before profitability, each time at market-set rates.
The Next Farm Crisis
Nico from AiQ
- John Deere stock is increasingly decoupled from farm fundamentals and now depends on aggressive buybacks and taxpayer subsidies to maintain valuation.
- Higher rates, lower corn prices, and reduced subsidies are catalysts that would reconnect Deere to underlying farm economics and collapse multiples.
- Chinese competitors dominate global agricultural equipment with cost-effective tractors and drones, while Americans remain locked into anticompetitive Deere due to repair restrictions.
The Fed's Message to Congress is On Brand as We Kick Off Sunday's Chart Party...
Garrett Baldwin
- Professional funds hold near-zero cash while systematic strategies add risk, creating low-precedent complexity with rising reversal probability.
- Individual stocks swing violently beneath calm index surfaces; semiconductors rallied 16% but Korea's AI chip suppliers face cracking demand and disappearing free cash flow.
- Key moving average breaks combined with continued selling could trigger a market 'Danger Zone' entering week of critical earnings and inflation data.
- Fed testimony, Bank of Japan news, and earnings season present multiple catalysts in a momentum-dependent environment on edge.
The Mega-Cap Opportunity: Meta & Microsoft!
Capitalist-Letters
- Only 3% of firms generated all US stock market wealth since 1926, making buying and holding exceptional companies the key to wealth creation.
- Exceptional businesses are rarely undervalued because their quality is well-known; this gap closes only during general market crashes, industry recessions, or technological revolutions.
- Meta and Microsoft represent the rare combination of exceptional business quality and attractive pricing in the current AI-driven technology shift.
- Value investing requires patience to wait for moments when the market underprices transformative technology leaders.
YWR: China is getting cooler. Trip takeaways.
PAIDErik@YWR
- Author's family infatuation with South Korean culture led to discovering memory trade opportunity during Samsung selloff after presidential coup in December 2024.
- Similar pattern emerging with daughters now interested in China; author following the 'artists' (cultural trends) to identify cooling markets before mainstream adoption drives prices up.
- China may be the 'new cool neighbourhood' for stock market investment, representing one of the most important market indicators for this currently hated market.
đŹ New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry expanded his analysis of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with new sections on ERCF buffers and related risk factors.
- The piece examines the health of the GSEs through a detailed CUSIP-by-CUSIP analysis of their most risky business segments.
- Discussion focuses on the interaction between Trump administration policies and housing market dynamics affecting the Twins.
China Weekly Wrap: The CXMT IPO Edition
Panda Perspectives
- Chinese offshore equities surged with HSI +3.53%, HSTECH +4.95%, and strong southbound capital inflows of USD 5.0bn, the largest weekly print in months.
- BABA led the MSCI China index with +17.11% gain as mainland investors pivoted from sellers to buyers of the Internet sector.
- Onshore mainland indices declined while STAR50 gained +4.5%, signaling a divergence between offshore strength and domestic weakness.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 12 July 2026
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Speculative leverage has surged with leveraged ETF long/short ratios entering warning territory after Q2 buy-the-dip confidence.
- Investor portfolio allocations to stocks are near record highs despite surveyed sentiment remaining only mildly bullish, signaling actions exceed words.
- Multiple risk flags are emerging for both tactical and longer-term horizons as July-October historically enters a more volatile period.
[Abridged Version] Fannie, Freddie, Trump & the Housing Crisis
Michael Burry
- Fannie and Freddie's profits are accumulating in the Senior Preferred Stock Liquidation Preference, not flowing to Treasury as commonly believed.
- If the Treasury affirms the SPS LP, common shares fall to low single digits; if deemed paid-off, shares could rise 3-4x initially and 6-7x longer-term.
- Executive Order 14393 (March 2026) and warrant expiration in September 2028 create timing pressures likely to resurface the GSE issue before the next presidential election.
The Week Ahead 7/12/26
Eliant
- AI trade momentum unwound through the week before finding a bottom mid-week, with Nasdaq finishing as the best-performing major index.
- Key economic data ahead includes CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, and Retail Sales Thursday.
- Substack has delivered 191.26% returns since June 2023 with 81.6% win rate, significantly outperforming all major indices.
Politics · 10
Iran update: the bombing expands. The deadlock holds.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US strikes expanded to 300+ targets across three nights targeting Iranian air defense, missiles, and naval capabilities.
- CENTCOM explicitly focused on dismantling Iran's ability to attack shipping through Strait of Hormuz with no indication of broader operational scope.
- Targets included military bases, airports, and oil/gas infrastructure with confirmed secondary detonations at munitions sites.
Postcards from the Edge of the World: Vol. "250"
Postcards From the Edge of the World
- Author relocated from Florida to a new location and is shifting from state-of-mind thinking to political economy analysis.
- Argues that summer months and election season amplify noise around economy and costs, requiring a non-partisan lens.
- Promises an up-and-down argument examining political economy rather than left-right commentary.
Mostly peaceful warmonger
Gold and geopolitics
- Author acknowledges uncertainty about a major political event while critiquing confident speculation from media and podcasters.
- Uses satirical tone to highlight how conflicting theories from credentialed sources are spread without supporting evidence.
- Describes Lindsey Graham as 'mostly peaceful,' criticizing his hawkish foreign policy despite his lack of direct military action.
Lindsey Grahamâs Sudden Passing (WiFi fixed)
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly, shocking the nation.
- The author speculates about potential foul play involvement from Russia or Iran.
- No confirmed evidence or official cause of death has been disclosed.
The Death Of Lindsey Graham
John Aziz
- Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly at 71 after returning from Ukraine where he advocated against Putin.
- Graham had been threatened by Iranian leadership days before his death, prompting speculation about assassination despite no evidence of foul play.
- The most likely explanation remains a natural cardiac emergency, though his geopolitical activities and recent threats create uncertainty around the cause.
Armor Piercing
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- North Korea has quietly become strategically important to Russia, deploying troops in Ukraine and supplying major munitions and artillery.
- Kim Jong Un's regime is expanding uranium enrichment capacity at Yongbyon with major new construction confirmed by the IAEA in April.
- North Korea receives far less media attention under Trump than during his first term despite playing a more active geopolitical role.
World Cup Riots Aggravate Europeâs Deepening Social Divide
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- World Cup riots across London, Brussels, and the Netherlands involved Moroccan fans turning violent after France's elimination, with police deploying riot units.
- Violence revealed deeper anti-Western and antisemitic attitudes beyond sports fandom, including antisemitic chanting in Dutch cities.
- Recent escalation in Netherlands represents pattern of violence, with Thursday's riots occurring days after previous July 5 outbreaks.
The CPS Excellence Agenda: A platform for Chicago school board candidates
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago's first fully elected school board election (Nov 3) comes as CPS faces junk credit rating and is the nation's largest junk-bond issuing municipality.
- Student outcomes have deteriorated sharply: CPS fourth-grade math and reading fell faster than peer districts 2017â2024, and enrollment dropped from 600k to 316k.
- Only 17% of Chicagoans grade CPS schools A or B, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with preparation and performance.
- Board candidates must address structural financial distress alongside academic decline in the nation's fourth-largest school district.
Learning the Wrong Lessons
Mark Hasman
- Trump's reported $2 billion in 2025 earnings, with half from UAE investments in his crypto company, creates perception of foreign influence contrary to presidential service.
- Both Republican and Democratic parties are mislearning lessons from recent elections by doubling down on failed strategies.
- Trump's intolerance for dissent contradicts constitutional values, while the presidency should be about serving the country, not personal enrichment.
Andy Burnham Says Britain "Got It Wrong" On Gaza
John Aziz
- Andy Burnham, Labour's presumed next PM, apologized for Britain's insufficient response to the Gaza war.
- The author argues Britain's main failure was not calling for a ceasefire early enough, though ceasefire calls would have been largely symbolic given Israeli hostage recovery priorities.
- Earlier British ceasefire demands likely would not have influenced Israeli or Hamas policy without addressing the hostage situation.
Culture · 10
The 90-Minute Rule: The Strength-Training Sweet Spot for a Longer Life
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Harvard 30-year study of 147k adults shows 90-120 minutes weekly resistance training reduces all-cause mortality by 13%.
- Neurological disease mortality drops 27% with 90+ minutes weekly resistance training, the most significant but underreported finding.
- Benefits plateau above 120 minutes per week, establishing a concrete dose-response ceiling for strength training.
Parallel Structure: The Pickup in Eddie Van Halenâs Frankenstrat on Van Halenâs First Album
Michael Burry
- Eddie Van Halen repaired and rewound a broken Gibson PAF pickup by hand to make it hotter for Van Halen's debut album rather than discarding it.
- The rewinding used thinner wire wound tighter to achieve more power and cut, representing an early example of pickup modification.
- The modified pickup became a key component of the legendary Frankenstrat guitar used on the album, combining experimental design with technical skill.
Negotiating with momentum
Derek Wallis
- Control and influence come from proximity and proximity, not restrictionâlike dog training, good parenting relies on closeness and guidance rather than distance management.
- True mastery develops by giving freedom when consequences are low, allowing subjects to internalize lessons independently.
- Sometimes the most effective teaching is letting life itself deliver the lesson rather than intervening directly.
Short & Thankful: 300
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry's Cassandra Unchained community reached 300,000 subscribers in under eight months.
- The platform has grown to 346,680 followers with 52% of subscribers based outside the United States across 212 countries.
- The community is characterized by substantive daily discussions and strong mutual respect among members.
The 10 Greatest Failures of Orson Welles
Ted Gioia
- Artists should be judged not only by hits but by their willingness to pursue bold visions despite risk of failure.
- The indie economy and collapse of legacy institutions have made failure a common experience for freelancers, forcing continuous iteration.
- A lifetime of misses reveals an artist's true passion and resilience more authentically than hits alone.
Spicy Tuna Beignets: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Spicy tuna beignets combine crispy potato pillows made with Maris Piper or Yukon Gold potatoes with fresh sushi-grade tuna.
- Recipe uses a blend of akami and chutoro tuna for balanced flavor profile, topped with creamy spicy dressing.
- Soft yet crispy beignets puff up when fried and can be customized with beef, yellowtail, or scallop alternatives.
NYT: "Men need better fitness role models"
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- NYT op-ed by Baylor professor Sebastian Langdell criticizes mainstream fitness influencers for relying on clichĂŠd masculinity tropes rather than genuine health advice.
- Popular fitness personalities (Ferriss, Attia, Johnson, Huberman) promote extreme optimization tactics that felt hollow and disconnected from sustainable strength building.
- Author advocates for simpler, more grounded approach to building strength and flexibility habits in 2026 rather than following celebrity-driven fads.
The Skill of Making Mistakes
Sara
- The ego's defense mechanisms block growth by conflating accountability with self-blame and perfectionism.
- True responsibility is investigation and improvement without letting mistakes dictate self-worth.
- Ambitious people often collapse into 'should've known better' rather than examining what was missed, felt, and ignored at the time.
- Unblocking this ego-driven growth obstacle requires separating the mistake from personal identity.
Robert
Derek Wallis
- Public understanding of martial arts and combat is distorted by Hollywood portrayals rather than reflecting actual gym training and performance.
- Historical martial arts figures like Kano and Helio Gracie promoted fallacies about combat effectiveness, prioritizing sales over performance.
- Real martial artists train hard in gyms with rigorous methods, contrary to popular media depictions of meditation and soft approaches.
Resist the Cult of Death
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Legalization of assisted suicide across the West signals civilizational decline by codifying that human life is value-neutral and utility-based.
- Beyond religious arguments, a society that sanitizes and enables suicide as healthcare cannot sustain itself long-term.
- Framing euthanasia as 'death with dignity' obscures the fundamental devaluation of human existence it represents.
Energy · 8
The energy foundations of Fortress Russia: 1
Irina Slav on energy
- Western oil majors (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell) entered Russian energy markets in 1990s post-Soviet collapse, building extensive operations.
- Russia's energy sector became foundational to geopolitical power and economic resilience, creating 'Fortress Russia' dependencies.
- Big Oil exodus from Russia began in 2022 following geopolitical shift, dismantling decades of integrated Western energy infrastructure in the country.
đŹ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- U.S.-Iran escalation pushed oil prices 4%+ higher; Iran claims Strait of Hormuz closed while U.S. maintains Southern Oman route open.
- WTI key resistance $76.00 with support at $72.00; Brent resistance $80.55 with support at $74.60.
- Vessel attacks on Oman route indicate escalating maritime security risks and potential supply disruptions.
đŹ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Extreme heat ridge moving into Western Corn Belt with record temperatures; market complacency poses major weather risk.
- Risk profile 9/10 for soybeans and 7/10 for corn as meteorological forecasts shift commodity expectations.
- Cotton and rice testing key support levels as agricultural complex reacts to weather-driven supply concerns.
Thereâs Plenty of Scandium Oxide, Just Not At The Price Bloom Energy Wants to Pay
The Koala from Yellow Lab Life Capital
- Scandium International's CEO Peter Evensen insists that Nyngan mine FID requires free cash flow positivity at full ramp, rejecting premium pricing to offset weak economics.
- The company needs offtake partners committing to 15-20 tonnes/year at floor prices of ~$2,000/kg to move toward production, signaling limited customer willingness to pay $3,500/kg.
- As the first greenfield Western scandium operation, SCY is balancing eagerness to develop the strategic asset against protecting existing shareholder returns by waiting for acceptable market conditions.
âStraya Ruggedization Update
BUSHY⢠and Acorn Weekly
- Author is refining an Australian 'Straya Ruggedization basket of stocks designed to benefit from sovereign resilience and political focus.
- Recent political developments on ruggedization justify revisiting and refining the previously proposed stock basket portfolio.
- Related analysis of energy positioning was covered in the previous weekend flagship article with deeper dive into thesis.
The Panama Canal Trade in Practice
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Panama Canal drought is a critical catalyst disrupting LPG shipping; the Canal has become the 'aorta' of maritime LPG economy post-Hormuz crisis.
- VLGCs (very large gas carriers) are most Panama Canal-sensitive due to geography: export hubs concentrated in GoM, import terminals in Asia with only one tiny West Coast facility.
- Choke point disruptions like Panama Canal droughts create phase transitions that drive violent price action and trading opportunities in shipping and energy markets.
Grid Expansion Chaos
David Turver from Eigen Values
- UK grid expansion plans to support Clean Power 2030 are falling behind schedule, requiring twice the work of the past decade in just five years.
- Transmission costs are soaring out of control according to multiple sources contacted by the author, raising concerns about cost blow-outs.
- Schedule slippage offers both risks and potential benefits: lower near-term spending on grid work but unclear final cost implications.
This Energy Sub-Sector Is Soaring, But It May Crash
Bison Insights
- An energy sub-sector is trading at all-time highs despite deteriorating fundamentals and weaker forward outlook, suggesting most upside is priced in.
- Extremely bullish sentiment combined with record press coverage indicates elevated valuation risk with downside potential.
- The author is positioning to profit from downside risk in this sub-sector with limited capital at risk and multi-bagger upside potential.
AI · 6
Intelligence Can Be Rented But Taste Must Be Earned
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI is decoupling intelligence and ability from economic necessity, similar to how industrial revolution diminished value of raw physical strength.
- Three-item success formula for AI age: talent sets ceiling, intelligence determines learning rate, taste/judgment becomes the scarce differentiator.
- AI can rent out intelligence but taste and discernment must be earned individually, shifting competitive advantage to judgment and cultural understanding.
Who Actually Makes Money When AI Eats the World? đ¸
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Hyperscalers spending $700B+ on AI infrastructure in 2026 (2x telecom capex) while frontier-model cost fell 128x in one year.
- NVIDIA records $81.6B quarter (85% YoY growth); Anthropic $965B valuation; yet 95% of ChatGPT's 900M weekly users pay nothing.
- Top 15 AI models converge within 3 percentage points on benchmarks; frontier capabilities now freely available open-source, compressing monetization.
Executive Briefing: Point an agent at your calendar and your repo, and it will show you the rules your company is âŚ
Nate from Nateâs Substack
- Company operating rules historically emerged from scarcityâexpensive engineering time, slow context, costly mistakesâbut AI is dissolving these constraints.
- Existing rules now conflict with new conditions, forcing operators to identify which rules still serve purpose versus those running on inertia.
- AI agents require rules to be explicitly written and legible to non-humans; informal tribal knowledge embedded in senior employees becomes invisible to automated systems.
Chat is dead. Agents are the new default.
Khe Hy
- Multiple AI labs released major model updates and product upgrades this week, marking a 'step change' comparable to December 2025's Opus 4.5 breakthrough.
- OpenAI's ChatGPT 'work' now competes with Cowork; ChatGPT 5.6 Sol released as a cheaper, agentic daily driver; Anthropic moved Cowork to the cloud.
- Interactive audio capabilities upgraded with ChatGPT Live, and agent-based interfaces are replacing chat as the new default paradigm for knowledge work.
- Chat interfaces are becoming obsolete as autonomous agents handle tasks directly, shifting from conversational to execution-focused AI deployment.
Six-Chart Sunday â The Bonfire of the Data Centers
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- Growing public opposition to data centers powering AI reflects both local concerns (electricity, water, heat, noise) and broader anxieties about AI itself.
- U.S. leads globally in data centers and compute infrastructure, which is central to American advantage in AI race and driving significant economic growth.
- Anti-data center movement reflects populist/outsider sentiment; backlash may be amplified by political opportunists and foreign competitors despite data centers being critical to economic opportunity.
Three Houses, Three Placements
Cape Fear Advisors
- Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet each hold large positions in frontier AI labs (OpenAI/Anthropic) but use different accounting methods to record them.
- Microsoft's $4.5B OpenAI gains are excluded from headline earnings; Amazon's $36.3B unrealized Anthropic gains sit in comprehensive income; Alphabet characterizes its $40B investment as non-material.
- Three identical assets are treated as three different line items depending on the company's chosen accounting instrument, illustrating how financial presentation choices obscure true exposure.