★ Priority · 14
TGIF: No Fatties, No Beardos, No Weirdos
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- US government launches America.gov, an AI-powered search tool designed to help citizens navigate government services.
- Publication highlights curated news and analysis from the week with focus on policy and cultural issues.
Market Update & Signals 10/2/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Risk-reward setup described as classic asymmetric opportunity heading into Q4 earnings season.
- Corporate buyback window reopens October 15 with record $1.3 trillion authorized through September, 8% ahead of 2025 pace.
- Breadth ticked up yesterday; levels approaching 2022 bear market bottoms suggest potential inflection point.
The Double Standard Of Proof
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- FlyDubai flight FZ1073 co-pilot attempted crash after stabbing captain; passengers subdued attacker and Israeli passenger helped level aircraft during 14,000-foot plunge.
- Off-duty Israeli pilots and Israeli dentist on-board assisted in saving pilot's life and safely landing all 174 passengers in Tel Aviv.
- Media initially downplayed incident as 'altercation' or 'clash' rather than terrorism attempt despite evidence of hijack code and stabbing attack.
I Questioned Transgender Ideology. Now I’m Facing Prison in France.
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A French feminist activist was convicted of 'public insult' for expressing concerns about gender identity law and women's safety on live television.
- Criminal prosecution over speech deemed hateful is creating a chilling effect on free expression in parts of Europe, particularly around gender ideology debates.
- The case illustrates the collision between identity law frameworks and classical free speech principles in contemporary democracies.
THOUGHTS FROM SWITZERLAND
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- TLT (long-duration Treasuries) suffered significant losses in September after 30-year yields rose from 1% to 5.6%, continuing a multi-decade trend.
- Historical context shows 1970s-80s yields exceeded 10%, suggesting current 5.6% levels may have further to rise under certain policy scenarios.
- The GLD/TLT trade framework requires both mathematical yield analysis and assessment of political/policy willingness to maintain or normalize rates.
Market Update & Signals 10/1/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Tech leadership continues with Micron and Alphabet (Gemini 4 rollout) driving gains; Nasdaq futures strong.
- Yield curves steepening sharply across major economies with US 10-year at 5.33% and UK 30-year hitting 6% for first time since 1998.
- September proved choppy but disciplined trend-following strategy kept portfolio sheltered; Q4 momentum assessment underway.
Falsely Accused of Being in the ‘Cornell 7.’ Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Social media mob dynamics wrongly accuse individuals through viral clips and mistaken identity, destroying reputations without due process.
- Bipartisan AI policy initiative from senators McCormick and Fetterman addresses competitive positioning in AI race.
- Coverage of Nixon historical recordings and Middle East geopolitics through various contributor perspectives.
(Idea) Scorpio Tankers - Testing The Bull Case From A Diesel Export Ban
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- U.S. diesel export ban would create logistical effect: lost Gulf Coast barrels must be replaced by longer-distance Asian shipments, potentially offsetting rate pressure.
- Scorpio Tankers' 75-vessel fleet (36 MRs, 25 LR2s, 14 Handymaxes) faces near-term headwinds from certain voyage losses but potential long-term gains from replacement voyages.
- U.S. distillate exports averaged 1.56M barrels/day (four weeks to Sept 18); roughly three-quarters were diesel, making export ban material to tanker demand.
- Bull case depends on whether longer replacement voyages create enough offsetting demand—uncertain outcome favors cautious near-term stance.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- HOV6 (diesel Oct26) contract exhibited unusual +11% spike before expiration on low open interest (~1600 lots on 2k volume), suggesting forced liquidation.
- Trader references 2022 February natural gas contract (NGG22) as historical precedent: last trading day saw dramatic move after main volume rolled to March.
- Low liquidity in expiring contracts creates vulnerability to sharp rallies when trapped positions forced to cover intraday.
- Pattern suggests diesel futures market structure risk in final trading days, parallel to energy complex dynamics observed in prior commodities cycles.
Douglas Murray: Israel Is Winning
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- An attempted hijacking of a Flydubai flight to Tel Aviv was thwarted by passengers and crew, including passenger Yaniv Hayoun who stormed the cockpit.
- Douglas Murray argues that despite constant threats, Israel has thoroughly outmatched its enemies over the past three years, positioning it as a winning side in the broader conflict with Islamic radicals.
- The incident echoes historical hijackings and reflects ongoing security challenges, but also demonstrates the resilience and bravery of Israelis and Western allies against terrorist threats.
‘I Ran Toward the Cockpit’: An Exclusive Interview with the Israeli Dad Who Stopped a Hijacking
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Yaniv Hayoun, a maintenance worker with no security background, led passengers in storming the cockpit to overpower an attacker who had stabbed the pilot and hijacked the aircraft.
- The co-pilot's attack caused the plane to plummet over 17,000 feet toward Saudi Arabia; the swift action by civilians prevented catastrophic loss of life.
- Hayoun describes his instinctive decision to act when he heard screaming and realized his family's lives were at risk, highlighting ordinary civilians rising to extraordinary circumstances.
Negative Convexity is Oddly Invisible
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Mortgage negative convexity creates a feedback loop: higher long rates reduce refinancing, forcing mortgage investors to short longer-dated Treasuries for duration hedging, which drives yields higher.
- Weekly mortgage applications are down 6% again, reducing prepayment speeds and requiring more duration hedging from MBS holders.
- The mortgage refinancing index is significantly down this year as homeowners remain locked in at lower rates.
- Quarter-end rebalancing dynamics are being complicated by this MBS duration hedging pressure, offsetting expectations of pension bond-buying flows.
Election Special - Brazil Edition
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Brazil's pension funds have record-low equity allocation at 5-8% (85% in fixed income) despite strong 14% bond yields, signaling potential for equity rotation.
- Brazilian Real has lost one-third of its value since 2019 while carrying 9% real yields (14% nominal minus 5% inflation)—the highest in emerging markets.
- Brazil ETF (EWZ) rallied 50% from 2024 lows to 2026 highs on recovery play, dollar debasement, and rates beneficiary thesis.
- Upcoming October elections (Round 1 Oct 4, Round 2 Oct 25) provide a catalyst for potential rebalancing from fixed income into equities.
How Oct meeting becomes live
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- October BoJ rate hike probability sits at ~20% despite September hike, driven by upcoming inflation data and Q3 tankan survey results.
- Global central bank tightening cycle (Fed and ECB) is the key factor that could force BoJ into action at October meeting.
- Domestic factors like upward growth revisions and modest inflation expectations unlikely to trigger hike absent external tightening pressure.
Macro · 17
China’s Next Phase
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- China entering prolonged balance-sheet adjustment with large debt stock, insufficient liquidity, and persistent deflation pressures.
- PBoC liquidity exerts disproportionate influence on commodities, energy, and real economy versus Fed's impact on financial markets.
- US and Chinese liquidity cycles currently out of phase, creating portfolio distinction: use US equities for beta management, China for alpha generation.
Disorderly Conditions
Hypernormal Times
- France's 10-year OAT yields near 5%, highest since 2002, with spreads over German bonds widening to 140bp—widest since 2012.
- Bond market stress spreading globally: US 10-year Treasury broke 2007 peak at 5.34%, Britain's 30-year gilt crossed 6% for first time since 1998.
- Advanced economies paid $3.3 trillion in annual interest on government bonds, exceeding global spending on AI, defense, and clean energy combined.
Metallism’s Mendacity
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Widespread collapse narrative about U.S. dollar system rests on flawed metallism assumptions about money and financial systems.
- Claims of unsustainable 'Ponzi scheme' and imminent financial collapse span political spectrum but share identical misleading monetary premises.
- Federal debt surpassing $40 trillion reflects systemic risks in financialized production, not currency collapse mechanics.
Burning Down the House
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Top 0.1% wealthiest Americans doubled total wealth since end of 2019, gaining $14.5 trillion with $10 trillion from stock market gains.
- Ultra-wealthy are diverging from other rich Americans; top 0.1% now controls $28 trillion or 15% of nation's total wealth.
- Wealth concentration accelerated starting 2020 pandemic period driven primarily by equity market appreciation.
More to go in Treasury yields
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Treasury yields (2-year and 10-year) are likely heading to 5.5%-6.0% range, contrary to fintwit consensus of peak yields.
- Historical parallel to 1994-2000 cycle shows similar pattern of mid-cycle slowdown followed by renewed inflation and rate hikes.
- Yield curve tells richer story about global macro regime and business cycle position than single yield data points.
Start Here: A Guide to My Research on Japan
Japan Macro Advisors
- Author is career economist since 1997 with focus on Japan, motivated by witnessing high unemployment in 1990s France.
- Japan undergoing regime change finishing deflation era, with geopolitics as critical lens for understanding economic dynamics.
- Post serves as comprehensive index to author's free research covering Japan-focused macro analysis and global geopolitical connections.
[COPY] Missing the Target
The Credit Strategist
- Federal Reserve's below-inflation interest rates create incentive for speculative borrowing and unproductive activities rather than investment in productive capacity.
- Kevin Warsh, as new Fed official, is organizing five task forces to revisit Fed policy fundamentals and correct decades of monetary policy errors.
- Warsh's determination to establish positive real rates and intellectually robust monetary framework is likely underestimated by those betting against rate normalization.
The deflation Wolfman is the endgame of this manic market cycle!
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- Fed tightening amid $3.5 trillion global sovereign debt crisis creating deflation risk; 10-year yields at 5.3% with further hikes expected.
- Property markets and REITs pricing in deflationary scenario; GCC vulnerable as dollar peg forces regional central banks to tighten during consumer distress.
- AI capex debt of $400 billion positioned to trigger credit crisis in 2027 as leveraged positions face margin pressure and forced selling.
The BoJ Is in No Hurry for the Next Hike
Japan Macro Advisors
- BoJ unlikely to hike before end of 2026; analyst expects next hike in March 2027 as executives show increased caution.
- Key swing voters Masu Kazuyuki and Koeda Junko remain aligned with cautious stance, with Masu explicitly stating no need to hurry rate increases.
- BoJ Policy Stance Indicator median fell in September for first time since May 2025, signaling dovish shift in board composition.
- Market still prices 1.02 hikes by December despite analyst's contrarian view of continued BoJ patience.
The AI Freight Train’s Growing Debt Bill
Hypernormal Times
- 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.9 percentage points in Q3, largest quarterly jump since 1994; Brent crude +42% for quarter.
- Extreme equity concentration: S&P 500 +2% but mega-cap tech (MSFT, META, NVDA, AAPL) each gained >10%, obscuring broader weakness.
- AI-linked debt now comprises 6.3% of U.S. investment-grade bond market versus 29-year average of 2.6%, per KKR warning on systemic risk.
- Nasdaq and S&P 500 on pace for fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains—pattern last seen in late 1990s bubble era.
Brakes, Not Speed: David Dredge on a Year of Broken Promises
Hypernormal Times
- Treasury Secretary Bessent's 3-3-3 plan (3% deficit, growth acceleration, 3M bbl/day oil production) failed on all counts; deficit larger than start.
- Bessent now intervening directly in forex markets (selling euros for yen with BoJ), effectively doing Fed's job outside formal policy channels.
- Japan's bond market under stress from indefensible peg; gold and Bitcoin trades resurged amid macro uncertainty and currency intervention cycles.
- Core problem: ever-larger deficits feed inflation, higher rates, and larger deficits—structural dynamic unresolved despite policy attempts.
Macro Research Portfolio Strategy Update - 9/30
MacroEdge Research
- MacroEdge expanding oil/gas operations and beginning North Texas small operator search; author emphasizes real-world expertise from 50+ contributor network.
- Unique positioning combines deep practitioner knowledge outside Wall Street and academia with macro forecasting track record over 3+ years.
- Transition period in Q4 with team recalibration; emphasis on maintaining unique competitive advantage amid increasingly cloudy market landscape.
- Commentary reflects growth phase of research operation balancing internal expansion with content quality and forecasting accuracy.
173 Million Bushels That Weren’t Ate
Nico from AiQ
- USDA cut 2025 corn crop by 57M bushels from area, while finding 177M bushels above trade expectations in inventory.
- Demand miss of +230M bushels versus USDA's own estimate ranks second-largest in 30 years, following a similar +207M miss the prior year.
- Back-to-back significant demand misses suggest structural changes in corn usage rather than random volatility.
The Fourth Spring
Peruvian Bull
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, marking the first hike since July 2023, signaling tightening financial conditions.
- Bitcoin rallied 42.8% from June 30 to September 29 (from $58,586 to $83,637), reaching its highest level in eight months despite the Fed's tightening cycle.
- Bitcoin is on track for three straight green months for the first time since 2012, suggesting decoupling from traditional monetary policy headwinds.
What Kind of Returns Can We Expect in This Macro Regime?
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Research's Macro Regime Probabilities continue to indicate rising nominal growth outcomes, but odds of stagflationary conditions are increasing.
- The framework uses bottom-up signals across asset markets to forecast which regime (+G-I, +G+I, -G-I, -G+I) will dominate and drive cross-asset returns.
- Current synthesis suggests caution as growth-inflation dynamics shift, with commodities and equities under pressure if stagflation materializes.
The Cap Is Gone
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's Supreme Court threw out the case protecting Cristina Kirchner's 15% cap on foreign rural land ownership, ruling that territorial sovereignty belongs to the state.
- President Milei's December 2023 decree repealing Law 26.737 is now fully in force after the court decision reinstated the repeal on jurisdictional grounds rather than constitutional merits.
- The ruling restores Federico Sturzenegger's sweeping emergency decree eliminating restrictions on foreign ownership of Argentine agricultural land, a major policy reversal achieved in just 13 months.
Interest Rates Just Hit a 2002 High. It Is Not the Debt That Should Scare You.
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.6% (highest since 2002), but the real issue is weak economic growth not debt—nominal GDP grew 8.5% while real GDP grew only 2.2% last quarter.
- Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, with AI capital spending the main prop preventing worse real growth.
- Rising rates threaten to push borrowers across the investment-grade/junk boundary, potentially triggering forced selling in private credit, pensions, and banks.
- Leaked Anthropic prospectus shows a $42 billion loss and Oracle walked away from a data center deal, signaling shakier AI spending fundamentals.
Politics · 14
The Biggest Hole in the American Health Care System
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Individual health insurance marketplace characterized by high premiums combined with massive deductibles and out-of-pocket costs.
- Author critiques metal-tier labeling system (Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum) as misleading marketing for expensive catastrophic coverage.
- Millions of Americans lacking employer-sponsored or government healthcare face purchasing insurance on dysfunctional individual exchanges.
The Media Is Dishonest About Islamic Terrorism
Kaizen Asiedu
- FlyDubai flight was attacked by co-pilot attempting to crash the plane; passengers and off-duty pilots subdued attacker and landed safely.
- New York Times framed the stabbing attack as an 'altercation between pilots' rather than 'suspected terror attack' despite public evidence of hijack signal and stabbing.
- Media language choice sanitizes serious incidents; terminology like 'distress signal' vs 'hijack signal' and 'clash' vs 'stabbing' shape public understanding of events.
An Irish Refinery Is Supplying Metal For The Russian War Machine
John Aziz
- Irish alumina refinery owned by Russian company Rusal exports over $650 million of metal to Russia since 2023, circumventing EU sanctions.
- Metal supplies Russian aluminum traders connected to EU-sanctioned weapons manufacturers despite 21 EU sanctions rounds against Russia.
- Refinery claims materials are not military-use and operations remain compliant with sanctions despite documented supply chain to defense sector.
Iran's Problem Is Bigger Than Israel
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Iran's currency crashed to 1.4 million rials per dollar, triggering the largest uprising the Islamic Republic has faced and a brutal military response.
- The regime is attempting to sustain two unsustainable projects simultaneously: buying domestic obedience and maintaining regional power, straining finances.
- Coverage of Iran focusing on military exchanges with Israel obscures the deeper economic and political crisis destabilizing the state from within.
Sweden’s Right Cut the Numbers and Lost the State
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Sweden's right-wing coalition won the 2022 election on migration policy but failed to implement stricter citizenship rules effectively due to bureaucratic resistance.
- Changing election outcomes and statutory policy differs fundamentally from controlling how state agencies, courts, and local governments actually execute those policies.
- The Sweden case raises broader questions about whether democratic elections meaningfully change how the state governs or merely replace names on government letterhead.
Andy Burnham Will Save Britain — He Just Has to Destroy It First
PAIDKonstantin Kisin
- Andy Burnham's Labour conference speech resonated because he communicated directly on substantive policy concerns rather than relying on focus-grouped messaging.
- Public support for left-wing policies (higher taxes on top earners, NHS funding, water nationalization) contradicts right-wing claims that Britain is fundamentally Thatcherite.
- Burnham's success demonstrates that voters want specific, tangible policy solutions—higher taxes for the wealthy and expanded public services—when asked concretely rather than in the abstract.
TLP, Revisited: Life in America Feels Unsettling Right Now. Can Democrats Offer a Compelling Answer?
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Americans express significant anxiety about rapid AI advancement (63% say too fast) and job displacement concerns.
- Recurring 21st-century instability theme from tech crashes to pandemics creating sustained economic uncertainty.
- Democrats face political challenge in offering compelling narrative addressing pervasive American unease about technological and social change.
A Terrorist Tried To Hijack A Plane Flying From Dubai To Tel Aviv. The Passengers Subdued Him.
John Aziz
- FlyDubai pilot from Oman stabbed co-pilot and attempted to crash plane flying Dubai to Tel Aviv; heroic response from stabbed pilot reopened cockpit door.
- Aircraft plummeted 17,000 feet before recovering and diverting safely to Saudi Arabia; alleged hijacker arrested and questioned by Saudi authorities.
- Israeli leadership characterized incident as attempted jihadist terror attack while BBC notes lack of official motive confirmation from police and emergency services.
The Third-Worlding of the West Accelerates
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Progressive commentators downplay the Muslim majority among global refugees, obscuring the reality that Syria, Afghanistan, and Sudan drive large refugee flows shaped by radical Islam and tribal conflict.
- The author argues that immigrants from dysfunctional states bring deeply ingrained cultural conditioning and contempt for liberal norms that do not disappear upon arrival in Western countries.
- The piece questions the capacity of Western institutions to absorb millions from societies with fundamentally different value systems, framing it as a vital question requiring serious answers.
Flight FZ1073: A Second 9/11 was Just Stopped
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Flydubai Flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv was subject to an attempted hijacking on September 30, 2026, when a co-pilot tried to bring down the aircraft with 180 people on board, including 27 children.
- Passengers and crew successfully overpowered the attacker, prevented the planned attack, and safely landed the plane in Saudi Arabia before returning everyone to Tel Aviv.
- The incident is framed as a near-repeat of 9/11-scale terrorism that was prevented by the decisive action of Israeli civilians and crew members.
Constitutional Rights Cannot Depend on Government Favor
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Two recent court cases—Mahoney v. U.S. Capitol Police Board and Cable News Network v. Trump—both establish that government cannot use control over federal spaces to reward allies and punish opponents.
- The Presbyterian minister case ruled that organizing a prayer service on Capitol steps without sponsorship is constitutionally protected; the CNN case restored press access denied by the White House.
- The rulings affirm that while government can legitimately regulate public access to federal institutions, it cannot weaponize that authority based on viewpoint or political alignment.
Why Is Israel So Bad at Genocide?
Kaizen Asiedu
- Author argues that Israel's documented actions—pausing strikes for vaccine campaigns, warning civilians before attacks, and allowing food access—contradict claims of genocide which has a specific legal definition.
- Genocide requires intent to destroy a group as such and is a distinct charge from war crimes, collective casualties, or disproportionate civilian deaths in warfare.
- The piece challenges the use of 'genocide' as an emotional descriptor rather than a precise legal term with specific evidentiary requirements.
He Wanted a 9/11. He Got a Plane Full of Israelis
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- An Omani co-pilot attempted to hijack flydubai FZ1073 bound for Tel Aviv with 174 passengers including 27 children, mostly Israelis.
- The co-pilot stabbed the captain with a knife while in the cockpit an hour from Ben Gurion Airport.
- This was the first attempted hijacking of a plane bound for Israel in over 20 years.
- Israeli passengers responded by moving toward the threat rather than away, ultimately preventing a successful attack.
Disaster Averted at 34,000 Feet
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Flydubai co-pilot apparently hijacked Boeing 737 en route from Dubai to Tel Aviv, causing dramatic altitude loss from 34,000 to 17,000 feet.
- Transponder briefly broadcast 7500 hijacking code, triggering Israeli Air Force fighter jet scramble and Netanyahu-led emergency response.
- Israeli passengers and crew averted potential disaster; all 174 passengers including 27 children landed safely in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.
Culture · 12
The fascination of Papua New Guinea, the curse of the AI bore, high brow versus low brow,
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Author critiques the 'AI bore' phenomenon: self-important professionals obsessively repeating singularity clichés and dismissing skepticism.
- Nick Clegg's observation that AI leaders are 'breathing their own fumes' resonates as commentary on Silicon Valley hype cycle saturation.
Healthy Pumpkin Spice Cookie Dough Balls
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe provides ingredients and instructions for homemade pumpkin spice cookie dough balls with chocolate coating options.
- Nutritional profile: 108 calories, 6g protein, 5g carbs, 7g fat, 4g fiber per serving with 12 servings total.
- Makes 12 servings using oat flour, protein powder, pumpkin puree, and nut butter with optional white chocolate and butterscotch dips.
Citizen AYNE: the very serious look at sport and media. Episode 6, Nick Bourne, brought by 54.
Roger Mitchell from As In The Lake
- Behind-the-scenes access and personality-driven storytelling are increasingly essential for sports media to engage modern audiences.
- Tennis's overcrowded calendar poses a structural problem requiring industry-wide solutions to balance player welfare and content production.
- Control of sports media's future will be determined by whoever manages the next major content bottleneck in the evolving landscape of sports broadcasting.
Pasta Geography
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- A Pasta Grand Tour series connects Italian regional pasta-making traditions to broader historical and geographical narratives across three sessions.
- Food serves as a gateway to understanding cultural heritage, immigration, and the intersection of culinary traditions with personal and collective identity.
- The course explores how specific pasta shapes and preparations encode regional history, tradition, and the migration stories of communities across Italy.
The 4 Behaviours That Took Women From A 65% To An 80% Orgasm Rate Across 52,588 People (And The 1 Rule In That Vir…
Nobody Talks About This
- Study of 52,588 Americans shows 30-point orgasm gap between heterosexual men (95%) and women (65%), but lesbian women reach 86%.
- Research identifies four behaviors associated with higher female orgasm rates: asking for what they want, praising partner, expressing love, and using sexy talk.
- Communication and explicit verbal engagement, not silence or commands, correlates with increased sexual satisfaction for women.
Announcing a New Resource
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Recovery-focused devotional resource recommended as gift for individuals entering addiction treatment programs.
- 87% of recovery participants desire spiritual content; 95% credit spiritual connection as recovery aid.
- Discounted pricing ($10.99) via publisher grant makes spiritual recovery resource accessible to broader addiction recovery community.
Captain Obvious
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Critiques Mel Robbins and popular self-help figures for repackaging obvious wisdom as groundbreaking insight.
- Argues that the world's most successful people build careers by articulating well-known truths in compelling ways.
- Reflects on the tension between genuine original thinking and the commercial success of conventional advice presented persuasively.
17 Observations on Chivalry
Ted Gioia
- Author presents 17 observations on chivalry as measured, cold takes grounded in biological and historical reasoning rather than contemporary hot takes.
- Opens with discussion of sex ratio dynamics and biological reproduction, challenging Rousseau's claim about male/female dependency.
- Argues chivalry is built on proper behavior rather than crowd-pleasing, positioning thoughtful discourse above viral provocation.
Premium: Saturday Night Fever
Feminine Chaos
- Kat and Phoebe discuss viral outrage around a rape claim, grifting behavior related to Palestine activism, and conflict within lesbian bar communities.
- Episode covers themes of accountability, authenticity in activist spaces, and social media-driven controversies.
- Content blends cultural commentary with personal narrative and community observation.
Hotel du Cap Has Rules for the Influencer Photo Shoot Now
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc, a legendary French Riviera property dating to 1870, has implemented strict new photography rules to combat influencer photo shoots and non-guest usage.
- The hotel's mythological status grew in the 1920s when Gerald and Sara Murphy transformed the French Riviera into an elite playground attracting Fitzgerald, Hemingway, and other cultural icons.
- Specific regulations now govern outfit changes, guest photography access, and non-hotel guests using the property as a personal photo set backdrop.
Quick Update
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Author Chris Arnade is recovering slowly from a serious illness requiring ER treatment abroad and is unable to resume international travel for the remainder of 2025.
- Medical complications from getting ill in a foreign country—particularly communication barriers in hospitals—have made overseas travel inadvisable per his doctors' advice.
- Arnade plans domestic US travel to underexplored regions including the San Francisco Bay Area, Salinas Valley, Oregon, and Washington once he receives medical clearance in approximately one month.
Australia Sent Machine Guns Against the Birds and Set a Quota for the Cats (121)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Part one of a two-part essay uses Australian fauna history and the 'birds are not real' satire movement as a framing device for discussing AI and surveillance.
- The piece examines Australia's historical control efforts against invasive species (machine guns against birds, quotas on cats) as an analogy for technological systems.
- Cats are presented as the household defense against bird-based surveillance, subverting traditional pet-human dynamics.
- Part two promises to reveal where AI was hiding in this historical narrative about ecological control.
AI · 8
Sequoia's Private AI Briefing: AGI Is Already Here 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Sequoia Capital believes AGI arrived in November 2025 when Claude and Opus agents demonstrated autonomous execution of complex work.
- AI opportunity should be sized against $10-20 trillion services market, not just $650 billion software market.
- Recent Sequoia portfolio startups saw average 31x valuation jumps within single months, dramatically accelerating product obsolescence cycles.
Modern AI Merlins
Benny and The Squirrel
- Episode 91 features Izabella Kaminska, founder of Blind Spot publication and former FT Alphaville editor discussing AI economics.
- Discussion covers markets, monetary policy, and economic implications of artificial intelligence.
- Show notes have been upgraded and expanded with bonus content distributed directly by Benny & The Squirrel.
There Are Bonds in the Singularity
Campbell
- Two competing market narratives dominate: the 'FOOM' thesis betting on AI/compute upside versus the 'NYC' thesis worried about capital demands, inflation, and rising discount rates.
- Rising bond yields are dragging down net present values of future cash flows, creating a headwind for growth stocks despite simultaneous equity gains.
- The tension between AI enthusiasm and bond market deterioration represents a fundamental conflict in valuation frameworks.
Building better evals for knowledge work
Khe Hy
- Evals (systematic quality evaluation) are essential for LLM outputs since they are probabilistic engines requiring objective, consistent measurement rather than subjective judgment.
- Real-world use case: evaluating AI-generated client newsletters requires designing repeatable tests for newsletter quality across multiple dimensions.
- Proper evals framework transforms vague performance concerns into measurable metrics that can guide model refinement and deployment decisions.
Robinhood Agents is live, and it earns from your trades, not the AI 🤖📈; Meta’s Muse now goes head to head with C…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Robinhood launched AI trading agents at HOOD Summit with 150,000+ agentic accounts already active, monetizing through trades rather than API fees.
- Robinhood's data marketplace exclusively serves its own agents, pulling users away from Claude and ChatGPT alternatives.
- Meta's Muse achieved ~5M U.S. downloads in 3 weeks and now competes with Anthropic's Claude for small business AI applications.
- Key questions remain around liability when AI agents lose money and how agent-exclusive data ecosystems affect AI model adoption.
Adding It Up: How to Read an AI Headline
Cape Fear Advisors
- AI announcements often conflate different types of financial commitments (ceilings, rates, conditional pledges, and total obligations), making aggregate figures misleading without careful SEC filing review.
- Akamai's September 2026 announcement of an $11.6B Anthropic deal headlines a number that obscures the actual structure: a seven-year commitment with an optional additional $9B component.
- Readers must examine detailed SEC filings (Form 8-K exhibits and press releases) to distinguish what is obligatory versus optional, as key details are often redacted or disclosed with delays.
Can companies like OpenAI keep getting away with what they are doing? An interview with Fordham law professor Zeph…
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Fordham Law Professor Zephyr Teachout argues OpenAI and similar companies have committed potentially enforceable violations that warrant investigation similar to how law enforcement handles evidence of crimes or dangerous products.
- Teachout, with two decades of tech policy experience and drafting enacted legislation, contends that regulators should not wait for complete evidence to investigate—analogous to investigating a car crash or defective product.
- Evidence of lawbreaking includes actual break-ins, deaths, and property damage that are documented but not yet formally prosecuted by authorities.
Does your work cost less on Opus 5.5 now that its tokens are 20% cheaper? My 3-prompt guide shows which jobs do be…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Claude Opus 5.5 with 20% cheaper tokens enables more efficient workflows through improved model ergonomics and easier directability compared to previous versions.
- Model ergonomics—the fit between system and user including effort to direct, understand, correct, and iterate—deserves more attention in AI development and evaluation.
- The efficiency gains suggest users can take on more ambitious tasks when the interaction model becomes easier and preserves previous decisions better.