★ Priority · 8
Haley Stevens’ Election Eve Surprise. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed on the eve of Michigan Senate elections, citing El-Sayed's refusal to condemn an antisemitic PAC ad.
- The endorsement reflects party loyalty tensions over Israel criticism and the willingness of some Democrats to prioritize principle over party affiliation.
- Michigan Senate race outcome could determine control of Senate, making Stevens' move potentially consequential for national balance of power.
CAPITULATION.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- October saw extreme volatility with 9 of 11 S&P sectors advancing but tech (XLK, QQQ) posting worst months since March 2025.
- Equal-weight stocks massively outperformed Nasdaq by the largest margin since 2002, with Value outperforming Growth by the most in 34 years.
- Author sees potential capitulation sequence and historic opportunity ahead, emphasizing patience for proper market setup before positioning.
- Focus on monitoring Core Risk chart for initial bottom signal with critical setup needed before additional selling occurs.
Californication
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Tyler Cowen published AI audit of Saez and Zucman research finding 2,035 alleged problems across 138 papers, prompting call for radical reassessment.
- Gabriel Zucman responded with accusations that exercise was politically timed attack and grotesque misuse of AI; Jason Furman argued many 'errors' were methodology disagreements.
- Debate highlights emerging conflicts over AI's role in auditing economic research and potential shifts in academic credibility and policy influence.
- California's Proposition 40 vote provided political context for timing of research critique, raising questions about politicization of scientific review.
Re-release: Pay Attention to Our Privates
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- A significant HY fund drawdown signals the start of an incipient credit event, exacerbated by the Fed's failure to monitor available market data.
- The post was originally pulled because it revealed proprietary work that became Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, now being republished for professional investors only.
- Market participants continue to miss obvious signals beyond headline noise, demonstrating persistent situational awareness gaps in credit management.
Tough Love: Is Having a Disabled Kid Making Me Bitter?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A parent of a severely disabled child struggles with becoming bitter and losing empathy for others' problems while managing enormous ongoing stress.
- The parent experiences seasonal intensification of burden, during which they lack patience with others and feel righteously angry at the wider world.
- The advice column explores strategies to maintain emotional balance and perspective while carrying the weight of a child's severe disability without losing humanity.
Midterms & The Midas Touch
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- The Nasdaq has experienced volatile swings mirroring the 'AI Slop of Hope' meme, with hedge funds de-grossing by 8% (the largest since 2017) amid sector rotation concerns.
- Intel's >50% monthly decline parallels its 2000 crash despite being bolstered by technical support at the 200-day moving average.
- Historical seasonal strength from November through June post-midterm elections (21 consecutive winning periods) may prove unreliable given current market dislocations and credit issues.
Digging into Uranium, Brazil, and Coal with Nick Jones
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Discussion with Nick Jones covers three investment themes: uranium, Brazil, and coal sectors.
- The piece highlights actionable investment strategies across commodity and regional markets.
- Content includes references to relevant traders and capital management firms for further research.
BoJ risk assessment inconsistent with Outlook report
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- Bank of Japan reluctant to hike rates independently despite being furthest behind the curve on removing accommodation, awaiting Fed and ECB action.
- Global central banks lack inflation-fighting backbone and are increasing terminal rates by moving too slowly, risking either AI-driven disinflation or another inflation-driven hiking cycle.
- Governor Ueda has become more vocal about upside inflation risks in press conferences, signaling a tougher stance on policy communication.
Markets · 12
Black Monday?
BUSHY™ and Acorn Weekly
- BUSHY portfolio weathered October volatility but remains only 5% off all-time highs despite market turbulence and worst day for mega-cap tech.
- Despite scary headlines, S&P 500 was down only 56bps on the week, contradicting doomsday narratives about another Black Monday.
- Portfolio performance tracked closely to Vanguard 2035 Target Date Fund, showing resilience in a challenging period for risk assets.
AI Is Good, but Not Good Enough
Andrew Sarna
- AI-focused hedge funds suffered significant losses as valuations compressed despite hyperscalers averaging 21% revenue growth at only 20.7x P/E.
- Tech sector experienced the largest degrossing event in a decade with names like ServiceNow down 34% and double-digit declines across S&P 500 tech.
- Market skepticism about AI capex ROI has created valuation disconnect, with defensive stocks like Costco trading at 40x P/E on minimal revenue growth.
Combined Event Risk
AP Research
- Anthropic's $16.3B first-half revenue lifted semiconductor stocks 3-3.6% but couldn't sustain rally as Alphabet ($500B loss) and Amazon cash-burn concerns weighed markets.
- Nasdaq entered technical correction as heaviest mega-cap names reversed gains, with 403 stocks rising despite S&P 500 decline showing dispersion.
- Healthcare, Materials, and Utilities led defensively while Communication Services and Technology lagged, signaling sector rotation away from growth.
Rebel Capitalist Weekly Report | Nov 1, 2026
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Oil surged 15% for October to near $104/barrel while 10-year Treasury yields fell 30 basis points, breaking their historically reliable correlation.
- Alphabet had its worst public trading day ever, Intel suffered its worst day since 1974, and Nasdaq dropped 2.1% as AI trade unwinds amid market weakness.
- Treasury yield decline contradicts traditional oil-rate relationship, suggesting major macro regime shift as Middle East tensions persist.
A Lower Floor
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Author recognizes systemic risk and delusion in markets but maintained long bias due to market unpredictability and participant irrationality.
- Flipped to long positioning despite Iran war concerns, believing market was underpricing upside risk and buying into names like Kaspi.
- Warsh Fed appointment signals end of Powell Put protection, creating different risk dynamics for asset prices going forward.
Make or Break Markets into Mid Terms
Benny and The Squirrel
- Episode 100 covers market dynamics into midterms, analyzing why Google and Amazon got hammered while Oracle rallied despite tech weakness.
- Discusses Anthropic IPO and the single trade holding the market together since June amid broader equity weakness.
- Focuses on make-or-break technical and fundamental levels for markets heading into critical midterm election period.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Fed silence under incoming Warsh leadership creates uncertainty requiring traders to infer policy reaction function from data rather than guidance.
- References Margin Call's soliloquy to frame current market moment: music has stopped but apparatus keeps running while central bank stays silent.
- AI capex funding squeeze and disappearing Fed Put create new regime where front-running policy becomes harder without traditional Fed signaling.
Do or Die Time
Nico from AiQ
- Inflation-adjusted price comparisons embed faulty assumptions and should be dismissed; FERPs (fake futures experts) use this tactic without understanding price determination.
- Wheat prices below $6 represent critical 'do or die' territory with new shorts piling in at lows; question is whether fundamentals have truly flipped.
- US agricultural competitiveness improving but farmers increasingly dependent on Washington subsidies, creating 2028 political and economic risk.
- P&L destruction has driven market to current levels; earnings cycle lows expected for ag companies but sustainability of rally uncertain.
Finishing October: Our Portfolio Outperforms S&P 500 by 6% YTD, Here Is What We Own!
Capitalist-Letters
- Portfolio outperforming S&P 500 by 6% YTD (up 16% vs. 10% for index), with emphasis on risk-adjusted returns over headline performance.
- Author argues maximizing risk-adjusted returns by controlling downside is key differentiator, not just chasing sentiment-driven gains.
- Risk-limiting discipline prevents portfolio from suffering extreme reversals common in high-risk speculation strategies during market corrections.
- Detailed portfolio heatmap analysis provided to demonstrate positioning strategy during volatile market environment.
Ghost Liquidity... and an Offer...
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Modern electronic markets create 'ghost liquidity'—apparent deep liquidity on screen that is actually conditional and can evaporate during stress.
- Market depth (ability to buy/sell at current price without moving it) differs significantly from trading volume, creating hidden fragility in seemingly liquid markets.
- The post-GFC electronic market structure has masked liquidity risks similar to those that emerged in March 2020.
The Week Ahead 11/1/26
Eliant
- Markets rallied early in the week on Middle East resolution hopes and Anthropic's S1 filing, but momentum faded following mixed tech earnings.
- Small caps outperformed with gains of 130bps while Nasdaq surrendered 300bps gains to close down 200bps, indicating factor rotation.
- Upcoming week features midterm elections and jobs report, with labor data and economic indicators suggesting continued volatility.
Anthropic and SpaceX: One Relationship, Two Records
Cape Fear Advisors
- SpaceX's largest customer is Anthropic, with a 180-day lease arrangement featuring mutual 90-day termination rights.
- SpaceX told the SEC that its Anthropic agreements do not require filing as exhibits because the contracts fall outside ordinary-course categories and the capacity is easily redeployable.
- The short-term lease structure was SpaceX's request, not Anthropic's, according to Elon Musk's public statement.
Culture · 11
Emerging Mania
Derek Wallis
- Author explores mania as a controlled tool for creative ideation, describing how elevated noradrenaline can enhance idea generation when later reviewed and edited.
- Personal narrative uses New York bar culture anecdote to illustrate managing manic episodes and maintaining composure in social situations.
- Reflects on using psychological states strategically for writing and creative work while maintaining editorial discipline.
Viral Kendall Jenner Brownie Cookie Dough Bars
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Viral recipe combines brownie and cookie dough layers in single-bowl dessert with gluten-free and monk fruit sweetener options.
- Recipe features minimal ingredients and quick 15-20 minute bake time with flexibility for different nut butters and chocolate chip brands.
- Marketed as healthier dessert alternative that maintains indulgent taste and texture appeal.
Thanksgiving Menu pt 3: Mac n Cheese
Notorious Foodie
- Mac and cheese using 4-5 cheese blend creates rich, velvety sauce that clings to al dente pasta.
- Key techniques: use freshly grated cheese (not pre-grated), low-moisture mozzarella, cook pasta al dente, and reserve pasta water for sauce.
- Dish serves 4-6 people with goal of creamy sauce and crispy golden top for ultimate comfort food.
- Recipe is customizable and 'dangerously addictive' when properly executed with attention to ingredient quality and technique.
Thai Curry Chicken Broth Bowls
Primal Gourmet
- Thai curry chicken broth bowls built by marinating bone-in chicken thighs in red curry paste, lime, ginger and garlic, then searing and finishing in oven.
- Technique emphasis: marinated chicken seared to golden perfection then finished in oven to maintain tenderness while building aromatic curry broth in same pan.
- Dish combines juicy chicken with intensely flavored spicy broth, jasmine rice, and cooling cucumber/lime garnish for balanced flavors and textures.
- Recipe requires 45 minutes total time (including 1-6 hours marinating) and serves 4 people; ingredient quality and technique are critical to success.
Generational Arguments Are Bullshit
Mark Hasman
- Generational blame cycles (Boomers blaming Millennials, Millennials blaming Gen Z) lack fairness without accounting for different contextual conditions each generation faced.
- Sports comparisons illustrate generational bias: people declare their era's icons greatest without changing minds, similar to 'best everything was when I was a teenager' nostalgia.
- Psychological 'reminiscence bump' explains why memories from teenage years feel especially vivid and skew perceptions of generational superiority.
- Statistical analysis methods exist to make generational comparisons fairer by removing recency and nostalgia bias from evaluations.
My 10 Rules for Public Speaking
Ted Gioia
- Author's public speaking journey began at age 13 when his mother offered a record player as incentive to enter a local speaking contest.
- Early competition wins in high school speech contests built confidence and competence in public communication skills.
- Personal experience competing against older students demonstrates that age and experience gaps can be overcome through preparation and determination.
Darren
Derek Wallis
- Friend Darren joined jiu-jitsu academy around the same time as founding Leading Edge in response to personal burnout and midlife realignment.
- Darren was experiencing severe burnout from overwork and a sedentary lifestyle that conflicted with his identity as an athlete and competitor.
- Physical training and martial arts participation became part of a broader personal recovery addressing mental health, values alignment, and lost competitive spirit.
The Explorers Club Went to London. Now the Lawyers Are Involved.
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- The Explorers Club's planned London outpost remains unopened with operator owing £710,000 in unpaid fees and the Soho clubhouse in receivership.
- One venture backer is accusing the New York institution's leadership of contributing to the debacle amid contested corporate filings.
- The dispute involves possible criminal proceedings and claims of involvement by the New York Attorney General.
Pomodoro con Riso
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Pomodoro con Riso, a Roman dish of tomatoes stuffed with risotto, uses the tomato shell as a flavorful container rather than just a side ingredient.
- Beefsteak tomatoes significantly outperform vine-ripe tomatoes for this dish, developing thicker edges that cook down sweet and soft.
- The dish can be served at room temperature or cold, making it ideal for refrigerator storage or rosticeria takeout during hot weather.
Healthy Homemade Butterfingers
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Healthy homemade Butterfingers require only 5 main ingredients and take 15 minutes to prepare.
- The recipe uses crushed cornflakes mixed with nut butter, maple syrup, and sugar alternatives, then dipped in sugar-free chocolate.
- Each candy bar contains 296 calories with 9g protein, providing a healthier treat alternative for cozy season.
"For all things, including crisis, there should be a season”
The Substack Post
- An advice column explores the balance between patience and naïveté in a relationship where one partner exhibits frequent anger and cynicism.
- The writer seeks guidance on how to better meet their boyfriend's emotional needs while maintaining their own sensitivity and values.
- The piece touches on fundamental differences in temperament and how two people with aligned values can navigate contrasting ways of being.
Macro · 10
Warsh and Bessent Are Building a New Treasury-Fed Accord to Revalue America’s Gold
Craig Tindale
- US Treasury and Federal Reserve are implementing a plan to revalue gold and reduce national debt by holding savers' returns below inflation.
- Key officials Warsh and Bessent have authored the technical frameworks for gold revaluation, drawing on 1961-62 precedent and legal mechanisms involving Treasury gold certificates.
- The strategy involves managing foreign Treasury holders and leveraging the Fed's balance sheet to execute a coordinated debt reduction program.
Weekly Macro Note: Plateau Surfing & Updating our 'Powell's Valhalla' Framework
MacroEdge Research
- Energy prices reaching critical cycle levels require Trump Administration decision on comfort with significantly higher oil and gas prices.
- Global inventory drawdown accelerating into winter amid TTF front-curve tightening, with conflict escalation likely adding 2-3 months lag to price realization.
- De-risking strategy advised into year-end given combined geopolitical, energy, and macro uncertainty despite near-term tech sector rebound.
A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger – Week Ending October 30, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- S&P 500 fell 0.6% for third consecutive weekly loss, breaking below 100-day moving average for first time since April as big tech dragged indexes lower.
- Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1% with 9.1% downside from October 6 record as Alphabet and Intel collapses dominated market narrative.
- Russell 2000 outperformed with 1.3% gain for second straight week while VIX jumped to 21.41 amid Friday's broad selling and AI spending concerns.
The Safest Asset on Earth Is in Intensive Care
Garrett Baldwin
- US Treasury bond market surrounded by massive borrowed money, derivatives, and collateral agreements creating an Intensive Care Unit for the financial system.
- Single Treasury bond flows through repo markets and hedge fund basis trades with complex balance sheets and Fed machinery required to prevent systemic failure.
- Entire retirement systems and financial trust rest on fragile engineering apparatus around debt markets rather than fundamentals like valuations or earnings.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- COMEX gold inventory down 20.87% in six months while gold ETFs now hold more gold than Germany's reserves, signaling supply tightness.
- China's gold imports up 72% YoY through August while India's imports down 81%, reflecting shifting geopolitical demand patterns.
- US debt-to-GDP ratio near 100% with record 41% of Americans expecting worse finances in coming year, creating macro backdrop for gold demand.
China Weekly Wrap: The Fifth Plenum Edition
Panda Perspectives
- China's fifth plenum ended with demand for tighter discipline and more effective officials as US markets experienced significant correction.
- ICBC gained 9.05% and PetroChina rose 12.65% on week; Hang Seng up 0.87% but ChiNext fell 10.08% amid renewed technology weakness.
- Banks showed stronger earnings with improved interest income and operating profit, though offset by weaker fees and uneven investment gains.
- Capital-markets support meeting scheduled for Monday with confirmation still pending; CSI 300 fell below 4,000 as growth indices surrendered earlier gains.
Reaction Function
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Busy economic week ahead with ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending Monday; ADP, Trade Balance, PMI services Wednesday; NFP Friday.
- Central bank reaction functions differed significantly among banks that met last week, with varying policy approaches to market volatility.
- Second-busiest earnings release week of the year compounds data-driven market uncertainty and volatility.
- Author releasing FCI model updates Tuesday with Substack live episode Wednesday at 11:30 AM for detailed analysis and Q&A with clients.
The Week That Matters (26-30 Oct, 2026)
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- Western financial markets' triumphalism around American tech dominance obscures a structural redistribution of global economic activity and influence toward Asia.
- The disconnect between Wall Street narratives celebrating US valuations and actual shifts in trade relationships and strategic influence is widening.
- Unlike the late 1990s Greenspan era, today's market performance lacks broader global support, particularly from Japanese capital recycling dynamics.
Eyes on Ireland
Chase Taylor from Pinecone Passport
- US Dollar remains strong above 2022-2024 lows and 2025-2026 highs, likely to persist until Iran conflict ends or Fed/Treasury intervenes.
- South Korea down 30% despite being the second-best performer YTD; most major economies were red in October with notable weakness in France and Brazil.
- Brazil's election shock triggered equity selloff due to fiscal deficit concerns and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates from central bank.
Primer: The Cross-Currency Basis
Conks
- The cross-currency basis in EUR/USD has turned more negative, reflecting tightened global dollar funding conditions amid French fiscal concerns.
- The 3-month tenor of the EUR/USD XCCY basis curve signals strains in European sovereign debt markets and increased relative demand for dollar funding.
- Dollar abundance and multiple governments' loose fiscal policies are expected to normalize shorter-term basis curves while creating longer-term opportunities.
Trading · 8
Trading Post November 2, 2026: Global Payments Buyout Report Juices Payments Stocks, The Retail Trade, Hong Kong C…
Michael Burry
- Clayton Dubilier & Rice and GTCR pursued take-private deal for Global Payments, sparking 18% share rally and gains across payments sector peers.
- Deal would rank among largest leveraged buyouts in history, converting Global Payments from struggling serial acquirer into PE-backed restructuring target.
- PE takeout fundamentally reshapes value proposition for minority shareholders, transforming chronically poor-ROI acquisitions into private equity optimization play.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Crude oil opened down $2 amid unconfirmed reports of Trump-Iran deal, with Ukraine continuing refinery strikes ahead of midterm elections.
- Macro weakness weighed on commodities including cattle, hogs, and soybeans as traders watch seasonal AI trade patterns.
- Opening calls expect corn and soybeans flat to mixed with focus on geopolitical headlines through Tuesday's election.
7500’s Tapped
Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
- S&P 500 index held 346 points below ATH at support level 7551-7558, closing neutral at 7614.50 after strong retracement.
- Technical analysis shows core-to-core price action pattern with calculated targets between 7571-7628 range suggesting multiple scenarios for week ahead.
- Upcoming elections cited as key catalyst that will influence market opening direction and near-term trading ranges.
Why You Act Against Yourself (Even When You Know Exactly What to Do)
Sara
- People frequently act against their stated intentions and known plans despite understanding exactly what they should do, suggesting discipline-based approaches fail.
- Problem is not lack of knowledge or willpower but something deeper that 'takes the wheel' at key moments, causing self-sabotaging behavior.
- Examples span personal life (staying up late despite sleep goals) and trading (adding to losing positions, poor decision-making under pressure).
- Stricter rules and harsher self-critique provide temporary relief but don't address underlying mechanism driving self-destructive actions.
You're Probably Addicted to Being Right
Luke Kube
- Traders often become addicted to being right, treating market predictions as reflections of personal ability and losing trades as evidence of inadequacy.
- Attachment to being correct can lead to poor decision-making as traders make 'incredibly stupid decisions' to avoid feeling wrong, especially after significant analysis.
- Greater conviction and confidence in an analysis makes it harder to change mind when markets move against the position, increasing risk of emotional decisions.
- Accepting uncertainty about market outcomes is counterintuitive but essential; most traders underestimate how much their ego investment in predictions distorts judgment.
Market Analysis and Trades for 11/2
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Friday's liquidation was substantial but may present oversold conditions, making indiscriminate short selling as risky as catching falling knives.
- ES ended its monthly one-time framing higher while NQ traded into longer-term reference levels, both showing potential for meaningful reversals.
- Technical damage remains significant with limited repair evident, requiring disciplined trade management into the new week.
Market Analysis for the Week of 11/1
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- ES failed spectacularly at 7819.5, the critical 7815-7820 level needed for bulls to take control of higher timeframes.
- Bulls traveled a long distance only to risk turning the entire rally move into a trap; the resulting liquidation was substantial.
- Week ahead analysis focuses on ES and NQ key reference levels following the FOMC event and after-hours action.
🐍 1.4 million options contracts: Stream it all real-time with ThetaData
Jason from PyQuant News
- Live options market data historically required expensive exchange agreements and large data budgets, but ThetaData now offers real-time access to 1.4 million options contracts.
- Alternative free sources like Yahoo Finance provide delayed quotes that can be 15+ minutes stale, leading to significant slippage when backtesting trading strategies.
- The tutorial demonstrates how to pull live options quotes into Python and calculate multi-contract position prices using proper real-time market feeds.
Politics · 8
The Quiet Exodus
Jonathan Rosen from House of Rosen
- French Jewish aliyah to Israel more than tripled from ~1,100 in 2023 to ~3,300 in 2025, with 36,000+ emigrations over past decade.
- Surveys show roughly 50% of French Jews considering departure, with higher rates among younger respondents citing security concerns and social media antisemitism.
- Trend reflects broader European Jewish exodus accelerated by October 7th, with similar patterns emerging in UK and other Western European countries.
Polygamy Is Never Just a Private Arrangement
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Author draws from personal experience growing up in polygamous household to examine why Western society instinctively rejects polygamy despite difficulty articulating precise objection.
- Explores whether polygamy could be reframed as 'progressive' if both men and women had equal legal freedom and social acceptance to have multiple spouses.
- Examines the inequality inherent in polygamous systems where women faced severe punishment for infidelity while men did not.
- Argues polygamy is never merely a private arrangement but carries broader social and legal implications worth examining critically.
4 local results Chicagoans should be watching on election night
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- First fully elected Chicago school board election (20 district seats plus citywide presidency) marks historic shift in control from Mayor Johnson and Chicago Teachers Union.
- CTU remains most dominant special interest group despite outside spending exceeding their investment by election day.
- Article highlights four key local races shaping Chicagoans' lives on Nov. 3 election beyond national congressional focus.
- Author will provide live analysis on Fox32 Chicago election desk coverage from 6-10 p.m. CT election night.
RFK Measles Again
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Pennsylvania has become the epicenter of a national measles epidemic with 5 deaths since September 30, despite measles being previously eradicated in the U.S.
- The RFK Jr.-Trump-Bhattacharya-Oz alignment aimed at disrupting public health has enabled measles resurgence, with forecasts predicting spread to Florida.
- Virchow's 1848 typhus analysis demonstrates that disease control requires addressing root causes like education and jobs, not just treating individual cases.
Iran declares Britain’s Royal Navy and RAF “terrorist organisations”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Iran has formally designated Britain's Royal Navy, RAF, and MI6 as terrorist and hostile organizations, effective immediately under Iranian law.
- The measure is retaliation for Britain designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under the State Threats Act and alleged British support for U.S.-Israeli operations.
- The accusation is particularly brazen coming from a state that has spent decades sponsoring terrorism and destabilizing other countries through covert operations.
Six-Chart Sunday – November Waves
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- Voters are historically sour on their own congressional members heading into the midterm, with record engagement and expectation of Democratic gains in House and Senate.
- Prediction models favor Democrats, but polls carry high uncertainty in either direction given narrow battlefields and unpredictable voter composition.
- Early indicators to watch for outcome prediction include turnout patterns in key races and specific demographic shifts that could signal either a blue wave or red riptide.
Palestinian Radicalisation Is Real (But Not Universal)
John Aziz
- Palestinian youth show signs of ideological radicalization, including expressions of extremist views, making them vulnerable to recruitment by militant groups.
- Radicalization among Palestinian youth represents a serious security concern with potential recruitment implications for Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
- While radicalization is real among some Palestinians, the author notes it is not universal, suggesting nuance in the broader Palestinian narrative.
Fifty Convictions, Fourteen Hundred Children
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Britain's grooming gangs inquiry will question officials about why warnings from Rotherham went ignored; initial hearings begin in December.
- The Alexis Jay 2014 report estimated 1,400+ children sexually abused in Rotherham 1997-2013; officials were instructed not to record perpetrators' ethnicity.
- Eleven years later, Baroness Casey found suspects' ethnicity still unrecorded in two-thirds of cases, exposing systemic institutional cowardice and racial fear-driven silence.
Energy · 6
Nigeria's Destroyed Refineries, Blackouts, and a Steel Mill That Never Made Steel
Yaw from Yaw's Brief: Guns, Trade, Cobalt & Africa Beyond Colonialism
- Nigeria's oil production collapsed from 1.9M barrels per day in 1992 to severely depleted levels due to refinery failures and infrastructure breakdown.
- Privatization paradox left citizens waiting in lines for petrol despite the nation's massive crude oil reserves and production capacity.
- Steel mill and other privatized infrastructure failed to deliver intended economic benefits, creating broader energy and power grid crises.
Bottleneck in the Energy Value Chain With 10x Potential Upside
Bison Insights
- Small energy value chain provider with supply constraints and 10x+ upside potential due to limited new supply sources through end of decade.
- Demand outpacing supply in this sector has driven prices higher, with only two major dedicated supply sources expected by 2030.
- Company's growth project has compelling economics with multiple financing scenarios, CEO has track record and is largest shareholder with recent open market purchases.
Refined Reversal
The Brawl Street Journal
- Global diesel prices have hit all-time highs exceeding $200 per barrel, nearly double crude oil prices above $100, driven by refinery supply shortages.
- The supply crunch stems from Middle East disruptions and reduced Russian diesel exports due to damaged capacity, sanctions, and export restrictions.
- European refineries are hampered by regulatory burdens that prevent them from capitalizing on favorable pricing signals, unlike competitors globally.
NESO is Playing With Fire
David Turver from Eigen Values
- NESO's Winter Outlook claims grid stability is assured through planning and balancing tools, but whistleblower allegations and Eversheds investigation raise credibility concerns.
- Ofgem has launched a consultation on proposals to strengthen the gas system amid emerging security of supply risks, indicating structural vulnerabilities.
- Electricity grid and energy system stability are receiving heightened scrutiny from regulators and independent observers.
Oil and Gas Research - Weekly Macro Note - War Rabbit out of the Hat?
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Oil and gas markets show limited activity following the previous week's update, with focus shifting away from energy to headline indices and technology narratives.
- Market participants operate with significant recency bias and increasingly shorter timeframes, missing longer-term trends in commodity markets.
- Geopolitical tensions may emerge as a catalyst ('war rabbit') affecting oil and gas markets in the coming period.
This Week in Oil
Bison Insights
- Oil prices experienced high volatility during the week but ultimately settled higher after briefly dipping below $100 WTI.
- U.S. oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserves continue to decline to multi-year lows despite low rig counts, signaling potential further price pressure.
- Signs indicate an acceleration in oil drilling activity, verified through conversations at oil conferences and rising demand from service providers.
AI · 6
The AI Trade Gets tested
Hypernormal Times
- AI capex boom fueling record IPO activity: Anthropic at $1.5-2tn valuation and Meta's $95bn raise signal strain on free cash flow despite revenue growth.
- Market repricing AI trade on free cash flow metrics not revenue, with Alphabet down 13% and Amazon down 7% after disappointing cash generation despite strong growth.
- Election next Tuesday and Fed December decision emerging as key catalysts for geopolitical escalation risk, bond market dynamics, and broader capital allocation shifts.
Executive Briefing: Your AI Agent Can Pass Every Demo and Still Double-Credit a Customer. The 8 Tests to Run Befor…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Major tech companies (Salesforce, Oracle, ServiceNow, OpenAI, Anthropic) are forming partnerships to deploy AI agents across business applications.
- AI agents represent new competitive battleground as companies seek to become central platforms for customer work across multiple business functions.
- Partnerships among competitors (Microsoft Copilot Studio, ChatGPT integration) reflect efforts to reach customers and maintain market position.
- Post outlines '8 tests to run' for evaluating enterprise AI agent platforms before deployment to avoid failures despite successful demos.
McNamee’s on AI: ‘The Industry May Be Riding the Wrong Horse’
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Roger McNamee, independent tech analyst, argues AI industry may be 'riding the wrong horse' and skeptical of current AI trajectory.
- McNamee's credibility stems from independence—he works for nobody, allowing him to avoid industry pressure and speak candidly without fear of losing access or clients.
- Unlike Wall Street analysts and bankers constrained by client relationships, McNamee can critique Silicon Valley without facing professional consequences.
- Red flags around AI industry hype deserve attention in both bull and bear markets but are typically ignored during euphoric periods.
This Isn’t About An AI Bubble... Something “Bigger” Is Happening. (Chart Party)
Garrett Baldwin
- Goldman Sachs AI basket experienced its biggest selloff, but private-side activity shows major players still scrambling for power and deals.
- Anthropic's token usage surged 3.6x to 2.2 trillion per day after Opus 5.5 launch, signaling strong underlying demand despite public market pessimism.
- The real problem isn't demand or revenue—it's the capital cost of buildout, which Goldman says has no obvious solution.
Token Talk, Trash Talk, and the Hostile React-O-Meter™ Spins Again
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Anthropic's IPO filing mentions the word 'token' only 14 times despite tokens being central to the company's business model, mostly appearing in glossary definitions.
- Updates on GFL, ASTS SpaceMobile, USA Rare Earths, and Covista signal various market movements and earnings-related developments.
- The analysis flags potential red flags and inconsistencies in corporate disclosures across multiple companies in the tech and space sectors.
Five controls to set before you let an AI agent buy, pay, or cancel anything for you, so it finishes the job witho…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- AI agents need five trust controls before accessing websites for transactions; Black October showed how AI breaks into sites while legitimate agent access remains blocked.
- Companies building dependable agent acceptance will gain power as consumers and businesses both need AI to complete transactions, but some businesses refuse agent access entirely.
- Open connections between agents and services are critical—choosing a different assistant shouldn't mean losing access, and poor agent compatibility already redirects consumer spending.