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Updated Wednesday, October 14 2026 · 06:23 AM CDT · 81 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 14

Market Update & Signals 10/14/26

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Summation Index has triggered a buy signal as earnings season unfolds, with potential for stocks to respond positively if the CPI report confirms the signal.
  • SPY remains coiled near all-time highs while SMH found support at the 50-day moving average, setting up a tactical trading opportunity with roughly 3x risk-reward asymmetry.
  • Deutsche Bank expects mega-cap growth and tech earnings to surge approximately 55% year-over-year, providing tailwinds for continued market strength.
Oct 14, 05:18 AMRead on Substack →

Who Will Govern Israel? Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Israeli voters will elect a government for the first time since October 7, 2023, with Benjamin Netanyahu facing challenger Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff who lost a son in Gaza.
  • The election serves as a verdict on Netanyahu's 19 years leading Israel and represents a critical fork in the road for the Jewish state amid ongoing multifront conflict.
  • Polls show a tight race with enormous stakes, forcing Israeli society and international observers to cut through noise and bad-faith arguments to evaluate the candidates' competing visions.
Oct 14, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

(WOMM) No Bargains

PRIORITY
Ideas from HFI Research
  • Professional value investor reports difficulty finding stocks trading at substantial discounts to intrinsic value despite years of searching neglected companies and unexplored angles.
  • Current market conditions produce few attractive investment opportunities despite disciplined search process, creating tension between subscriber expectations and honest investment assessment.
  • Author prioritizes investment integrity over subscriber retention, refusing to force ideas artificially to meet service demands.
Oct 13, 05:07 PMRead on Substack →

Douglas Murray: The International Criminal Court Is a Sham

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • The ICC has functioned as a political tool since its 2002 founding, repeatedly targeting Israel while ignoring other conflicts.
  • The U.S. has consistently refused ICC jurisdiction over American officials, viewing domestic justice as sufficient and rejecting foreign court authority.
  • European institutions like the ICJ and UN Human Rights Council show similar politicization, with disproportionate focus on single countries.
  • The ICC's selective prosecutions and apparent bias undermine its legitimacy as a neutral arbiter of international justice.
Oct 13, 02:23 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Le Shrub warns that the AI trade attracts inexperienced investors who lack understanding of current market dynamics.
  • Price action around headlines reveals current market regime; close observation required to navigate AI trade volatility.
  • Recent NASDAQ puts purchased October 9th doubled in value, allowing position reduction for risk management.
Oct 13, 08:25 AMRead on Substack →

END OF THE AI TRADE?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Author reflects on short Nvidia call in 2025 following DeepSeek LLM model announcement, which proved incorrect; questions validity of recent CXMT memory chip concerns versus DeepSeek methodology.
  • Frames AI competition as 'capital war' to keep Elon Musk out of AI/data center business; monitors SpaceX weakness and DRAM pricing as key indicators rather than headline news.
  • Equities forward-looking; key question whether Musk's mission to 'destroy OpenAI' (with SoftBank as proxy) represents meaningful competitive threat to AI trade thesis.
Oct 13, 07:02 AMRead on Substack →

The AI Slop of Hope™️

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Nasdaq sold off on confusion between net vs gross OpenAI revenues; reveals investor knowledge gap on AI holdings, with Broadcom CEO warning investors act 'like they are in a casino.'
  • Shifts market characterization from 'Wall of Worry' (bull market) to 'Slope of Hope' (bear market), where selling occurs despite optimism and good news.
  • AI-dominated cycle producing 'AI Slop' content that pollutes information environment, raising risks of upcoming bear market phase.
Oct 13, 06:44 AMRead on Substack →

Market Update & Signals 10/13/26

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • KOSPI fell 6% breaking below 200-day MA for first time since July; Korea halted program trading as SK Hynix fell 10% and Samsung 7%, signaling Asian weakness.
  • SPY closed near all-time highs while SMH (semiconductor weakness) becoming concern; rotation into Health Care (IHI medical devices) showing strength; bonds bid on falling rates.
  • US market holding pattern until CPI release; portfolio strategy emphasizes 'watering flowers and cutting weeds'—rotating into strength away from lagging sectors, particularly semiconductors.
Oct 13, 05:12 AMRead on Substack →

Don’t Livestream the Death Penalty. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Pete Hegseth announced livestreaming of Nidal Hasan's firing-squad execution for 2009 Fort Hood massacre, claiming public transparency demonstrates consequences for terrorism.
  • Raises concerns about government competency after Tennessee's failed pentobarbital execution of Christa Pike; tensions between public transparency and execution dignity.
  • Death penalty implementation now central national debate balancing justice communication, government capability, and human dignity considerations.
Oct 13, 05:03 AMRead on Substack →

Tech & Energy, or Tech vs Energy?

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Energy bulls and AI skeptics show strong correlation on social media, but this heuristic may indicate both are wrong about their respective positions.
  • AI demand remains robust despite higher oil and interest rates, with AI crowding out capital and resources from other sectors including government spending.
  • Potential resolution to Iran tensions and AI return materialization could reshape the energy vs. tech narrative, though AI players face restructuring challenges if balance sheets deteriorate.
Oct 12, 01:26 PMRead on Substack →

Niall Ferguson: Why Europe Is Burning

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • French high school students are protesting and burning schools, claiming desire for education investment while clashing with police and blocking streets.
  • Recent protests in France echo broader European unrest, with similar demonstrations occurring in Madrid and across the continent.
  • Niall Ferguson characterizes youthful European street activism as a ritualistic rite of passage, comparing modern protesters to historical revolutionary movements.
Oct 12, 12:31 PMRead on Substack →

IS SHORT TLT DONE?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • The Economist's cover story on rising yields reflects good news for short TLT positioning, as US and Japanese growth remains solid.
  • German 10-year yields remain near 15-year highs while French-German spreads have widened to Eurocrisis levels, signaling potential debt concerns in France.
  • Unlike the previous Eurocrisis, German bond yields are not falling, suggesting structural differences in the current European dynamics.
Oct 12, 09:24 AMRead on Substack →

So This Is the End?

PRIORITY
Lord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
  • S&P hit new all-time high with the 'pain trade' favoring upside; author still targets 8,000 this earnings season but remains uncertain beyond.
  • Goldman Sachs prime data shows US fundamental L/S net at record low 46.9% while Mag7 concentration at 22% of US prime exposure reaches record levels.
  • Author reconsidering phase 2 AI basket addition but finds current price action unconvincing; QQQ trades maintained and bonds showing new appeal.
Oct 12, 09:06 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • S&P is near all-time highs but market participants are nervous ahead of midterms, with more anxiety around the AI trade than elections.
  • Poor market breadth despite new highs represents a warning sign, with historical precedents showing 10-20% rallies preceding spectacular crashes.
  • An inaugural piece on 'Shrubtivism' explores new trading ideas despite the uncertain technical setup.
Oct 12, 07:16 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 16

Is America Abandoning the Endless Frontier?

Prof G Research Team
  • Nearly $200 billion in federal funding has been cut or disrupted across 17 policy sectors since Trump returned to office, affecting long-term research with future breakthroughs potential.
  • The Golden Goose Awards highlight cases like GLP-1s from Gila monster venom research, showing how obscure federally-funded science often leads to major medical breakthroughs.
  • Federal research funding is being redirected away from foundational science toward administration priorities like AI and quantum computing, raising concerns about what life-changing treatments won't emerge in 20 years.
Oct 14, 06:03 AMRead on Substack →

Can we trust the polls this year?

Seriously, Marvin?!
  • Democrats average an 8-percentage-point margin in generic-ballot House polls with eight Republican Senate seats rated as toss-ups versus only two Democratic-held seats, shifting consensus from House swing to potential landslide.
  • Persistent polling errors in recent elections cast doubt on the reliability of polls as election forecasts, despite growing Democratic polling advantages.
  • Midterm elections historically favor the party not in power, and narrow Republican majorities in both chambers compound the headwinds facing the Trump agenda.
Oct 14, 01:01 AMRead on Substack →

Peace Derangement Syndrome

John Aziz
  • Calling for Arab-Israeli coexistence in the Levant triggers abuse from both antizionist extremists who deny Jewish legitimacy and Kahanist fringes advocating Arab expulsion.
  • Peace advocacy becomes impossible when counterparties reject coexistence premise, equating Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Hitler vs. Jews rather than recognizing decades of jihadism and October 7.
  • Both extreme positions—viewing conflict as genocide with no path to peace, or advocating ethnic cleansing—prevent meaningful dialogue despite reasonable middle ground existing.
Oct 13, 04:10 PMRead on Substack →

Macron Has Failed France

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Emmanuel Macron's approval rating collapsed to 18% amid fuel crisis, political discontent, and national security concerns, enabling Marine Le Pen's National Rally surge.
  • Macron's failure to deliver on promises to make France safer and stronger has opened political space for Le Pen, whose support now leads latest polling.
  • Over 80% of French reject Macron's leadership, representing historic loss of confidence in his presidency and administration.
Oct 13, 04:01 PMRead on Substack →

Democrats Are Gaining Ground Ahead of November. But with Which Voters?

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Democrats lead by 8.6 points on generic ballot, matching their 2018 midterm margin, but national polls don't predict individual district outcomes.
  • 2022 polling showed Republicans ahead by 2.5 points yet Democrats retained key seats due to race-specific dynamics and voter shifts.
  • Demographic and regional voter movements will determine whether Democrats' national advantage translates to actual seat gains in November.
  • Questions exist about polling accuracy and how swing voters in competitive districts will ultimately decide the midterm outcome.
Oct 13, 03:33 PMRead on Substack →

A Conversation with James V. Shuls: Restoring the Purpose of American Education

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • The Phoenix Principles propose reforming education by centering parents, character, academic excellence, and civic responsibility.
  • American public education has lost its founding purpose of forming citizens for self-government, reduced instead to workforce preparation.
  • Education should be understood as formation of the whole person rooted in tradition and history, not merely technical skill acquisition.
  • The conversation explores how educational philosophy directly shapes cultural values and the health of democratic institutions.
Oct 13, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

The children had names

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • The deaths of Shiri Bibas and her young sons Ariel and Kfir demonstrate the 'identifiable victim effect' in emotional public response.
  • Israel's government failed to provide sustained support to grieving families whose personal stories reached global audiences despite not following military briefings.
  • Named individuals generate stronger emotional and donor response than abstract statistics about mass suffering, affecting both compassion and strategic messaging.
  • The tragedy reveals both a failure of government support for hostage families and a missed opportunity in understanding public psychology during wartime.
Oct 13, 10:04 AMRead on Substack →

VIRAL -- ELI STEELE: NYC ICE Shooting Exposes How White Guilt Erases Personal Responsibility

Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
  • An NYC ICE shooting incident exposed how Democratic Socialists denied individual responsibility based on historical oppression narratives.
  • The Democratic nominee's response reflected a framework where centuries of systemic oppression override personal accountability.
  • White guilt culture can erase personal responsibility for individual actions, obscuring perpetrators' roles in incidents.
  • The viral commentary challenges how progressive politics frames personal agency within discussions of systemic inequality.
Oct 13, 09:39 AMRead on Substack →

Why the Far Right Is Winning in Germany (and Why You Should Care)

The Prof G Pod
  • The AfD's rise in Germany stems from the eurozone debt crisis and 2015 refugee wave, mirroring populist movements across Europe like France's National Rally and Reform UK.
  • Scott Galloway analyzes how far-right parties are gaining momentum with clear parallels to MAGA, with part two forthcoming.
  • Germany's far-right party now leads national polls, signaling broader European political shifts toward populism.
Oct 13, 09:26 AMRead on Substack →

‘They Tried To Jail Me’ Migrant Assault Victim Nearly JAILED for Speaking Out… - Thaïs d’Escufon

PAID
Winston Marshall
  • French activist ThaĂŻs d'Escufon discusses her sexual assault and how speaking about immigration and crime led to criminal conviction and fines.
  • The podcast covers censorship, mass immigration, and growing unrest across France.
  • Episode explores how critiquing immigration policy can result in legal consequences in France.
Oct 13, 08:22 AMRead on Substack →

Marijuana Use Rebounds

Demography Unplugged
  • Marijuana use rebounded to 17% of US adults in 2026, up 4 percentage points from 2024 and tying the 2023 peak after a 2024 decline.
  • Public perception shifting favorably: negative effects perception fell from 51% (2024) to 46% (2026), while 47% now believe marijuana has positive effects.
  • Trump administration has softened stance on marijuana, including April 2026 reclassification of state-licensed medical marijuana.
Oct 13, 07:04 AMRead on Substack →

America Is the Land of Freedom and Choice—Except in Politics

Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
  • America's founding principle of individual freedom and 'live and let live' has historically enabled pluralism and respect for diverse lifestyles.
  • Despite political conflict, Americans remain constitutionally free to choose beliefs, speech, and pursuits without government interference.
  • Capitalist system and technology platforms support millions of individual voices and niche demands reflecting American individualism.
Oct 13, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

No, Vladimir Putin Is No Friend Of Palestinians

John Aziz
  • Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled multiple Russian data centers, taking Russian government propaganda capabilities offline.
  • Putin's government is not a genuine ally of Palestinian interests despite some rhetoric alignment in anti-Western positioning.
  • Russia and Ukraine have escalated infrastructure attacks in recent months as the fifth-year war continues with no resolution in sight.
Oct 12, 04:20 PMRead on Substack →

Get off our memorials: the Britain they despise

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • Metropolitan Police arrested six protesters for criminal damage at Battle of Britain memorial after pro-Palestine demonstrators climbed the monument.
  • One arrest made for Nazi salute at same demonstration, highlighting contradiction of honoring Hitler's opponents while making fascist gestures.
  • Battle of Britain memorial represents 20 nations and one-fifth of Fighter Command aircrew were foreign-born, embodying values of diversity protecting freedom.
Oct 12, 03:01 PMRead on Substack →

Is Liberation Theology Costing the Catholic Church in Brazil?

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Brazil's Catholic population declined from historical dominance to 56.7% in 2022 census, while Evangelical churches grew to 26.9% by winning converts from Catholicism.
  • Liberation theology and Marxist political influence redirected the Catholic Church's focus toward politics away from spiritual community and moral foundations when Brazilians needed them most.
  • Church's embrace of liberation theology coincided with its institutional decline, suggesting that politicization alienated believers seeking faith and community rather than activism.
Oct 12, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Ring-Fencing the Atlantic

Santiago Capital Research
  • The Secretary of State's three-stop tour (Reykjavik, Athens, Lisbon) skipped major EU capitals (Berlin, Paris, Brussels), suggesting a strategic geographic pivot.
  • The timing and locations of the trip coincide with American troop movements and new US sanctions on the International Court of Justice, indicating coordinated geopolitical repositioning.
  • The pattern reflects a broader shift from a rules-based, cooperative global order toward America First unilateralism and deglobalization regardless of which administration is in power.
Oct 12, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 11

The BoJ Has Reasons Not to Hike Too Soon

Takuji Okubo
  • Japan's real-estate loans to GDP ratio has hovered near the 'overheating' threshold since the late 2010s, with property investment vehicles slowing after a 2022-23 surge.
  • A 0.5-point increase in borrowing rates would push loss-making real-estate SMEs from 21.7% to 27.0%, creating fiscal pressure on the BoJ's tightening plans.
  • The BoJ likely will hold off on rate hikes before 2027, preferring to monitor the effects of its two recent hikes on an economy facing deflation risks from labor shortages and input costs.
Oct 14, 05:28 AMRead on Substack →

Market Commentary

David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
  • Critical economic data releases over the next three weeks include CPI, PPI, FOMC decision, and earnings from major tech firms.
  • Pinebrook's CPI forecast runs above consensus, with volatility expected to continue after the inflation print.
  • Wage data (ECI on Oct 30) will test the inflation narrative and influence Fed policy expectations heading into earnings season.
Oct 13, 12:23 PMRead on Substack →

What would Jackson do?

Marvin Barth
  • Parallels between Andrew Jackson and Trump illuminate the populist framework driving current Fed policy and banking decisions.
  • Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair reflects political priorities around bank deregulation and balance sheet normalization.
  • Fed policy must address regulatory constraints and balance sheet reduction while maintaining FOMC consensus amid changing global capital competition.
  • Structural economic forces reshaping global competition and interest rates have profound implications for midterm elections and policy direction.
Oct 13, 10:31 AMRead on Substack →

Transmission

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Australia's RBA hiked rates by 100 basis points to 4.6% as unemployment rose to 4.6% and inflation fell from 4.6% to 4%.
  • Early 2025 inflation surge prompted RBA action, with the economy now responding to monetary tightening.
  • Australia theme expressed through AUDUSD positioning, with potential for additional rate hikes to complete disinflation.
Oct 13, 08:28 AMRead on Substack →

Blacklion Daily Den Tuesday October 13, 2026

Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
  • Week ahead features IMF annual meeting in Bangkok with significant central bank commentary including Chair Warsh, while FOMC speakers confirm data-dependent 'Hike and See' approach.
  • September deficit driven by tax seasonality; Treasury refunding T-Bills as receipts normalize; limited market-moving economic data this week due to Monday bank holiday.
  • Energy weakness supporting bid in rates; SOFR and petroleum data delayed to Thursday; minimal rate movement expected ahead of CPI release.
Oct 13, 07:23 AMRead on Substack →

Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Global liquidity fell for first time in three months due to weaker collateral values and stronger USD.
  • Collateral multiplier at record high; haircuts have not yet adjusted to recent volatility spike.
  • Investor risk appetite easing with flows shifting from Asian EM toward commodity producers and US.
Oct 13, 04:30 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Capital Flows

Capital Flows
  • China's massive current account surplus is creating a macro impulse flowing through different global balance sheets.
  • US and France have different balance sheets and structures; analysis focuses on macro impulse rather than direct comparison.
  • Report examines how China's external position reshapes capital flows across diverse economies.
Oct 13, 03:23 AMRead on Substack →

India's Existential Material Trap, Part Two

Craig Tindale
  • India's manufacturing share of GDP declined from 17.3% (2006) to 13.1% despite holding $734.6B in foreign reserves.
  • India cannot domestically produce seven critical inputs (rare-earth magnets, APIs) needed for its own manufacturing; Beijing's 2025 magnet license slowdown halted scooter production.
  • Western central banking rulebook financializes economy and deindustrializes nations; India's fiscal and monetary rules, not elections or armies, will determine century-long trajectory.
Oct 12, 07:11 PMRead on Substack →

Critique of “China Shock”

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • Recent econometric critique by Joseph Francis challenges the foundational methodology of David Autor's 'China Shock' research in Economic Journal Watch.
  • Growing body of academic literature questions whether the 'China Shock' adequately explains Western industrial decline and structural transformation.
  • Simple narratives about industrial hollowing out may obscure more complex economic dynamics that require deeper analysis beyond convenient explanations.
Oct 12, 07:00 PMRead on Substack →

Volcker’s Ghost

Peruvian Bull
  • Gold surged from under $200 in early 1979 to $850 in January 1980, driven by Iran/Afghanistan crises and dollar flight to commodities.
  • Hunt brothers pushed silver from $6 to $50 per ounce in early 1979, demonstrating massive speculative leverage in commodity markets.
  • Volcker's tightening policy triggered the collapse: gold crashed to $650, then $480 by March, and silver collapsed on Silver Thursday margin calls in April.
Oct 12, 03:12 PMRead on Substack →

China Weekly Wrap: The Patient Recovery Edition

Panda Perspectives
  • China recorded 826 million domestic trips over Golden Week with Rmb894 spent per trip, slightly less than the prior year, indicating gradual activity recovery.
  • Home sales improved in select cities but high inventory remains, suggesting housing market remains challenged despite some positive signs.
  • Beijing's policy focus on patient capital, dividends, and buybacks aims to build a larger domestic shareholder base, though profitability and discipline remain key challenges.
Oct 12, 08:21 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 9

Localized Pain 🧬

Andrew Sarna
  • Biotech sector has experienced the largest dollar reduction in gross exposure among U.S. subsectors since mid-August, with cumulative decline over eight weeks marking the largest in over five years.
  • Specialist biotech investors' portfolios have been hit harder than speculative biotechs, suggesting forced selling through degrossing events rather than fundamental deterioration.
  • Evergreen private credit funds continue facing redemption queues with structural barriers to liquidity, though a crisis appears unlikely.
Oct 14, 05:45 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets slightly higher ahead of inflation report with yields fading; 10-year yield at 5.20% as investors await CPI data.
  • European markets outperforming with consumer and tech bid, while Asian markets lower as China and Japan face headwinds despite China's soaring exports.
  • AI trade showing signs of stress with IPO failure sending tremors through the sector, though ASML signals AI chip demand to exceed supply for two more years.
Oct 14, 05:05 AMRead on Substack →

The Calmest Casino Since 2020

Hypernormal Times
  • S&P 500 has gone 53 trading sessions without a 1% decline, longest streak since January 2020 eve-of-pandemic period, despite 10-year yield at 24-year high of 5.364%.
  • Broadcom CEO warns many AI investors 'have no clue what they're investing in' and are in a casino-like environment, yet markets absorbed this reality check with minimal reaction.
  • Current tranquility amid elevated geopolitical risk (US-Iran conflict), elevated oil ($105+ Brent), and bank fund manager surveys showing maximum tech overweight since 2020 appears unsustainable.
Oct 13, 08:08 PMRead on Substack →

Adding It Up: The Asset Stays, the Owner Changes

Cape Fear Advisors
  • Fiber infrastructure built during the dot-com boom remained valuable despite 95% going unused, eventually enriching later buyers at bankruptcy prices.
  • Asset values persist through ownership changes; companies that overbuild collapse while later acquirers profit from discounted infrastructure carrying growing traffic.
  • The AI buildout is now comparable in scale to telecom in 2000, raising questions about whether demand will match the massive infrastructure investment.
  • Historical patterns suggest if AI spending outruns demand, physical assets will survive while today's builders face restructuring, benefiting future owners.
Oct 13, 01:15 PMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • US markets flat as investors await earnings from major banks; market sentiment requires catalysts from corporate results.
  • Contrasts Trump and Woke ideologies in behavioral terms: Trump is optional consumption choice, while Woke operates as mandatory institutional framework.
  • Brief observations on personal wellbeing (exercise efficacy vs therapy) and political engagement, with mix of technical and philosophical commentary.
Oct 13, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

The Rally Remains Narrow

Andrew Sarna
  • Market breadth improved last week, but Russell 2000 fell for five consecutive weeks despite healthy earnings growth; major divergence between index and individual stock volatility.
  • Concentration risk at extreme levels: only 29% of S&P 500 companies outperformed index in 3 years (near dot-com lows); 10 stocks drove 70% of S&P 500's 23% rally since March.
  • Bank earnings and Wednesday CPI report represent critical catalysts; Utilities outperformed, Tech underperformed; 10Y yields fell 3-7 bps supporting fixed income and commodities.
Oct 13, 05:45 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • US markets flat with yields plunging; S&P +3bp, 10-Year Yield at 5.20%.
  • European markets mildly higher despite consumer weakness; Asia mixed with Korea down 5.5%.
  • Big bank earnings expected premarket; chip stocks slide after Broadcom commentary; massive deficits across global economies.
Oct 13, 04:57 AMRead on Substack →

Portfolio Update

The Haymaker Team
  • Brazilian 10-year government bonds have delivered ~25% total returns for investors who bought one year ago at 15% yields.
  • Current yields have declined to 12.5% due to price rallies, though early December 2023 purchasers achieved ~6.8% net returns despite capital losses.
  • Portfolio update highlights the attractiveness of Brazilian fixed income investments despite recent pullback in yields.
Oct 12, 02:08 PMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • US markets are flat with key drivers this week being CPI data and Fed speakers.
  • Earnings season begins with banks, ASML, and TSMC reporting amid uncertain market direction.
  • Author illustrates the gap between theoretical trading models and real-world execution costs through a cautionary anecdote about a high-profile fund manager.
Oct 12, 06:21 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 8

Diesel of Discontent

PAID
Doomberg
  • European buyers purchased 136 of 140 LNG cargos from Russia's Yamal plant during H1 2026, generating approximately $7 billion in revenue that potentially funded Putin's war machine.
  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer carved out a sanctions exception allowing imports of Russian crude refined in India to address diesel and jet fuel shortages, causing London's financial establishment to erupt in protest.
  • European hypocrisy on Russia sanctions is undermined by quiet LNG imports and refined fuel exceptions, creating a disconnect between public rhetoric and private energy diplomacy.
Oct 14, 04:02 AMRead on Substack →

War Note: Walking a Tight Rope, CPI Look

MacroEdge Research
  • Diesel prices are at all-time highs heading into midterm elections with WTI at $95 and Brent at $110, creating political pressure on the party in power.
  • Trump is showing restraint on Middle East escalation with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia to avoid broader conflict before midterms, though post-election escalation with Iran remains a risk.
  • Emergency measures under consideration include diesel/oil export bans, additional SPR releases, and Defense Production Act expansion, which may escalate further once midterms conclude and Strait of Hormuz flows face disruption.
Oct 14, 01:54 AMRead on Substack →

Notes from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
  • 25th World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh emphasizes infrastructure redundancy and diversification for energy security.
  • Three recent crises support renewable and EV growth while making coal, oil, and gas more entrenched in energy systems.
  • Despite social media reports of attacks, Riyadh remains vibrant with strong conference attendance demonstrating city resilience.
Oct 13, 12:09 AMRead on Substack →

3 WASDE question marks

Nico from AiQ
  • Post examines WASDE agricultural report with three key question marks requiring deeper analysis.
  • Includes Bobby Knight video commentary on traders working through state-by-state NASS data changes and global figures.
  • Announcement of weekend weather reports and AI-powered research tools to automate analysis that traditionally required full research teams.
Oct 12, 04:09 PMRead on Substack →

Russian Diesel: Real or Flimflam?

David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
  • POTUS 47 claims agreement with Russia to supply 4.8M tons of diesel fuel to U.S. and global markets to lower prices.
  • Author questions the feasibility of the deal given that American refineries are at record capacity and profitable, with no apparent supply constraint.
  • Russian refinery output is reportedly vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks, raising doubt about Russia's ability to deliver promised volumes.
Oct 12, 02:26 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Australian premium low-volatility coal eased modestly to $268.50/t fob, with tier-two HCC holding at $228.90/t amid thin trading described as 'slow, not weak.'
  • Indonesian coke suppliers are reselling Canada-origin HCC while domestic producers operate at only 50-55% capacity due to severe water shortages.
  • SGX curve reshaping shows the front end losing ground with October, November, and December contracts all declining.
Oct 12, 08:56 AMRead on Substack →

Josh Young On CNBC

Bison Insights
  • Oil prices are positioned as a 'coiled spring ready to snap back' with multiple factors supporting higher prices ahead.
  • Recent market trends and news events continue to reshape expectations for oil market direction and volatility.
  • Analysis provides perspective on current market dynamics and catalysts for potential oil price appreciation.
Oct 12, 07:42 AMRead on Substack →

Massive net-zero win. For coal and oil.

Irina Slav on energy
  • Coal demand is forecast to hit a record 8.94 billion tonnes this year, driven partly by expensive natural gas from Middle East tensions.
  • COP31 climate discussions have quieted while Asian governments boost oil reserves and heating season coal demand surges.
  • EU climate policy discussions highlight social justice concerns, but real-world energy trends show fossil fuels strengthening rather than renewables replacing them.
Oct 12, 06:57 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 7

Don’t Trust People Who Talk Like This

Ted Gioia
  • David Ellison, now Hollywood's most powerful figure after $111B Warner Bros acquisition backed by his father Larry Ellison's $40B guarantee, speaks in corporate jargon ('verticals', 'profitable linear portfolio') rather than creative vision.
  • The shift in Hollywood leadership language reflects how financial engineering and scale metrics have replaced discussion of artistic merit or audience entertainment.
  • This corporate lexicon obscures rather than illuminates strategy, exemplifying how tech money is reshaping creative industries away from storytelling principles.
Oct 13, 10:17 PMRead on Substack →

Born This Way

Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
  • Jared Dillian discloses managing Bipolar 1 disorder, an extremely rare condition affecting ~200,000 Americans with poor prognosis (jails, institutions, or death for most).
  • His sustained professional success despite this severe mental illness represents statistical anomaly, as most Bipolar 1 patients cannot maintain employment, marriages, or avoid criminal involvement.
  • Exploring nature vs. nurture factors in bipolar disorder development, including genetic markers identifiable through DNA testing.
Oct 13, 08:23 PMRead on Substack →

The Art of Getting What You Want

🗒️ Polymath Investor
  • Benjamin Franklin negotiated a deal with his brother to manage his own board, saving money for books while both parties benefited financially.
  • The story illustrates win-win negotiation tactics through Franklin's creative approach to dietary preferences as an apprentice in 1722.
  • Franklin's ability to get what he wanted through clever negotiation contributed to his later success in diplomacy and business.
Oct 13, 08:01 AMRead on Substack →

The 5-Part Intimacy Reset For Couples Who Both Keep Waiting For The Other To Initiate (It Starts By Changing 1 Wor…

Nobody Talks About This
  • Rosemary Basson's circular model of desire (arousal preceding desire) offers explanation for couples where both want more sex but neither initiates.
  • Commonly cited 75-85% statistic for women with responsive desire lacks primary research source; actual survey data shows more modest 29% endorsement in one study of 133 women.
  • Understanding responsive vs. spontaneous desire patterns may unlock communication barriers in intimate relationships where both partners share similar frustrations.
Oct 12, 02:36 PMRead on Substack →

Healthy Crumbl Cinnamon Swirl Cookies

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Recipe post provides step-by-step instructions for creating a healthier, macro-friendly version of Crumbl cinnamon swirl cookies using sugar substitutes and high-protein flour.
  • Includes complete ingredient list, preparation directions, and optional frosting with monk fruit sweetener for reduced-calorie alternative.
  • Targets fitness-conscious consumers who want popular dessert dupes with improved nutritional profiles.
Oct 12, 12:38 PMRead on Substack →

Who’s Getting a Michelin Star This Year? Let’s Make Some Guesses.

Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
  • Michelin Guide award announcements approaching for American South (October 21) and Northeast cities (December 14), with Philadelphia and Boston joining the guide for first time in 2025.
  • Author assembled predictions from chef and hospitality insiders about which restaurants will receive stars, based on insider knowledge rather than personal dining preference.
  • New Michelin presence in Philadelphia and Boston creates a distinction between best restaurants overall and those officially recognized by the French guide.
Oct 12, 12:07 PMRead on Substack →

“You can’t say that” 🫢

Roy Ben-Tzvi
  • Author recounts anecdote of sharing a travel story about a gypsy fair in Romanian mountains before being corrected that the terminology cannot be used.
  • Brief vignette explores social censorship around language and terminology in contemporary discourse, with group reaction illustrating taboo enforcement.
  • Post appears to be commentary on speech restrictions and evolving social norms around acceptable language.
Oct 12, 11:57 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 7

It remains “very difficult [to find] actual, materially measurable financial impacts” from spending on AI, per new…

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • New study finds no materially measurable financial ROI from massive AI spending, contradicting early 2023 hype about ChatGPT 10x productivity gains.
  • Extreme disconnect persists between trillions invested in AI and zero documented scale impact, described as 'perverse and baffling'.
  • Character.AI bankruptcy and Coreweave bonds hitting 15% signal investor skepticism about AI sector viability despite continued capital deployment.
Oct 13, 08:29 PMRead on Substack →

The Price Increase That Never Happened (128)

Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
  • AI model pricing operates on two variables—price per token and token output—allowing vendors to raise costs without changing listed price per token.
  • Anthropic kept Sonnet 5 at introductory rates ($2/$10) indefinitely instead of raising to $3/$15 on September 1, 2026.
  • Tracking AI costs in a single file can produce stale pricing data when vendors adjust token efficiency rather than per-token rates.
Oct 13, 08:32 AMRead on Substack →

Why could the same AI rebuild a 16,000-line program without seeing its code, yet fail to customize a library for M…

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • AI models demonstrate 'narrow superintelligence'—extraordinary performance in specific domains (like mathematics) without corresponding general intelligence across other fields.
  • OpenAI's 700+ mathematical research manuscripts with machine-checked proofs show models can rebuild complex code but fail at routine customization tasks.
  • Current intelligence theory assumes progress in one demanding task signals deeper common ability; evidence suggests this assumption needs fundamental re-examination.
Oct 13, 08:01 AMRead on Substack →

How to Hire a Grok Bot: Your First AI Employee 🤖

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Grok Bot from xAI reached 418,000 weekly users by mid-September; best practice is to hire AI agents incrementally like employees.
  • Model behind Grok Bot shifted twice and is transitioning to Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5.
  • Effective Bot management requires starting with single tasks, probation period, and gradual authority expansion rather than connecting all apps immediately.
Oct 13, 04:55 AMRead on Substack →

Research and chart scroll

PAID
Geo Chen from Fidenza Macro
  • Azeem Azhar's research suggests debt and leverage in AI infrastructure, not equities, are the primary market concern.
  • Open models represent approximately 35% of tokens consumed; enterprise volumes through closed models continue rising.
  • Large businesses adopt models more slowly than individual developers; AI revenue projections should cover infrastructure costs.
Oct 12, 11:59 PMRead on Substack →

Could this be the Frontier Labs’ WeWork moment?

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Peak tokenmaxxing valuations (OpenAI $1T, Anthropic $2T) now unjustifiable after Chinese open-weight model price wars and OpenAI's $20B revenue forecast cut.
  • Poorly controlled AI agents causing criminal liability issues; rogue AI fiasco and copyright court decision undermining generative AI company valuations.
  • OpenAI pushed IPO to 2027; Anthropic's IPO delayed with S-1 unreleased, suggesting mounting valuation and liability concerns.
Oct 12, 07:28 PMRead on Substack →

The Bill Came to the Wrong Address (127)

Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
  • Colorado's new law starting January 1, 2027 requires companies to disclose within 30 days when an AI tool materially influences hiring, housing, lending, insurance, health care, education, or government service decisions.
  • The deployer (company using the tool) must provide disclosure but can only reveal details the developer (tool maker) has provided, creating potential information gaps.
  • The law names two responsible parties but places the disclosure burden on the deployer, who may lack full technical knowledge of the AI system.
Oct 12, 08:33 AMRead on Substack →

Tech · 4

JPMorgan shut AI Agents out of Chase. Mercury let them in, and AI Assistants now recommend it 5 to 1 😳🏦; Stripe …

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • JPMorgan Chase blocked outside AI agents like Meta's Muse from accessing Chase accounts to protect $2.7 trillion in cheap deposits, signaling competitive concerns over AI-driven customer defection.
  • Mercury's openness to AI assistants has led them to be recommended 5-to-1 over Chase, demonstrating how AI integration strategy can become a competitive differentiator in fintech.
  • Stripe's move to bring Privy wallets to XRP Ledger raises questions about who controls the wallet layer in agentic finance and how blockchain neutrality squares with proprietary chain promotion.
Oct 14, 04:44 AMRead on Substack →

Twitter/X is thriving, its critics just won't admit it

Hot Takes by Adam Singer
  • X/Twitter continues to thrive despite media and expert predictions of failure, with critics refusing to acknowledge the platform's recovery.
  • Author cites John Gruber's recent analysis showing X has re-found its footing under Elon Musk's leadership.
  • Critics who abandoned X based on media narratives or safety concerns dismiss platform success through ideological bias rather than empirical observation.
Oct 13, 08:28 AMRead on Substack →

Israel’s Answer to the Unjammable Drone Is a Midair Collision

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Israel Aerospace Industries unveiled HawkGuard at U.S. Army Exposition, a drone-interceptor system using midair collision methodology after failed Dutch eagle experiment (2016-2017).
  • Dutch police initially trained sea eagles to intercept drones but abandoned approach due to unpredictable bird behavior and high costs; shift to technological solution reflects infrastructure reliability needs.
  • HawkGuard represents evolution of physical drone defense without explosive detonation, addressing security concerns over hostile drones near crowds.
Oct 13, 06:30 AMRead on Substack →

An Israeli Team Wants to Replace the Surgery Behind the Colostomy Bag With a Needle

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Israeli company Phantom GI is developing a needle-based device to create ostomies without surgery, eliminating the need for colostomy bag procedures that require general anesthesia and often two operations.
  • Current ostomy surgery saves lives but imposes significant burdens on patients including bag leaks, weekly nursing care, and skin damage from stool exposure.
  • Innovation aims to replace bracketing surgical operations with a minimally invasive needle procedure, potentially transforming treatment for colorectal cancer and other conditions requiring ostomies.
Oct 12, 11:42 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 4

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Nico expresses no strong trading convictions, signaling patience as South American growing season begins with cocoa showing coiling technical patterns.
  • Market focus expected on soybean fundamentals, though corn warrant attention despite wheat sector fatigue.
  • Upcoming analysis of global cocoa weather conditions will inform positioning in commodity markets.
Oct 13, 08:44 PMRead on Substack →

Haymaker Daily

The Haymaker Team
  • Buying commodities when consensus sentiment is heavily bearish is a proven contrarian strategy for generating consistent profits.
  • The approach applies directly to commodity futures and related natural-resource equities for tactical positioning.
  • Market psychology often causes traders to ignore proven contrarian principles despite their historical effectiveness in commodities.
Oct 13, 11:22 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • WASDE report delivered bearish demand for agricultural commodities with option expiration scheduled Wednesday.
  • 4-bushel-per-acre corn cut reverses stock build; South American exportable corn supplies for 2027 potentially overstated by 8-10 million tonnes.
  • USDA MENA wheat demand reconciliation remains challenging alongside broader balance sheet adjustments.
Oct 12, 08:51 PMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 10/13

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • ES tagged daily resistance at 7886-7888 while NQ failed weekly resistance at 16916-16938, triggering a 'trading lower' scenario despite low volume.
  • Market action was choppy with low volume but technical levels and analysis provided clear directional signals for trading decisions.
  • Post references weekly context for SPY, QQQ, and GLD that readers should review prior to this daily analysis.
Oct 12, 05:37 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 1

You’re losing valuable time and money every day. Here’s how to stop.

Thinking in Bets
  • Understanding when local supermarkets receive fresh food deliveries can save hundreds of dollars by enabling informed purchasing decisions.
  • Economic principles can be applied to everyday consumer behavior to optimize spending and reduce wasteful expenditures.
  • The book excerpt demonstrates how economic insights create actionable value in non-traditional domains beyond finance and business.
Oct 12, 07:01 AMRead on Substack →