★ Priority · 14
The dollar choice everyone has to make
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- A critical resolution window from mid-September to early November will feature major central bank meetings, political events, and earnings reports that could force market directional clarity.
- A potential Fed hold combined with BoJ rate hike could trigger a trend reversal in USDJPY, with higher yen supporting Japan's inflation outlook.
- The steepening JGB curve over the past 12 months may finally stabilize once these macro resolution events conclude, providing relief to other G10 bond markets.
đź’¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Stock indexes (SPY/QQQ) remain rangebound near support with untested gaps, requiring disciplined rather than conviction-based trading over the next few days.
- Tech stocks show potential recovery plays with NVDA making progress and MAGS (led by NVDA, GOOGL, META) advancing, while AAPL rolled up from trend support.
- Multiple mega-cap tech names are positioned for new highs, potentially sparking broader AI theme recovery, though AMZN is testing critical 50/100-day support levels.
Should Kids Use AI? A Debate. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- New York City's public schools announced a ban on AI use for elementary and middle school students, sparking debate over AI's educational impact.
- Two educators present opposing views: one argues AI undermines learning and critical thinking skills, while the other advocates for productive AI integration as a transformative opportunity.
- The piece explores whether AI in classrooms helps or harms students, teachers, and the broader educational landscape.
Chapter 8 - Competition Driven Shorts Beat Macro Shorts
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- The author recounts shorting commodity producers (iron ore, coking coal) in 2012-2013 based on increasing supply and slowing Chinese demand despite market consensus on high prices.
- A key pivot point emerged when West Texas Intermediate's historical premium to Brent crude began to compress as U.S. oil production ramped up despite the country's historical status as an importer.
- The anecdote illustrates how competition-driven commodity shorts can outperform macro-driven shorts when supply fundamentals shift faster than consensus expectations.
WTF? WAFERS, TOO FAR?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Wafer makers like Siltronics and SUMCO are currently unprofitable due to excess capacity, presenting a potential cyclical recovery opportunity.
- SUMCO stock may have been driven higher by hedge-fund flow strategies and could now be a broken trade following the fund's collapse.
- Formosa SUMCO's listed status and monthly revenue reporting offer a clearer picture of demand trends in the semiconductor supply chain.
The Devilish Legacy of Roy Cohn
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump sought a 'Roy Cohn' figure—a ruthless fixer—during his first administration after his attorney general recused from Russia investigations.
- Roy Cohn, McCarthy's henchman and Trump's longtime lawyer, was infamous for his role in anti-communist witch hunts and decades of dubious legal work.
- The article examines Cohn's singular influence on Trump and his historical legacy as a political operator of extraordinary moral compromise.
đź’¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- USDJPY declined on intervention rumors while precious metals market activity resumed; palladium may require earlier long entry than initially planned.
- Russia's 40% share of global palladium supply creates significant geopolitical tail risk amid September elections and NATO tensions not yet priced into commodities.
- Leipzig drone incidents and diplomatic escalation suggest underappreciated geopolitical risks that could drive near-term commodity price moves.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- PLTR puts up 70% since Monday short recommendation following 7% stock decline, generating profits on successful directional trade.
- Trader reduced position size by half to lock in gains while maintaining exposure to continued downside potential.
- Quick turnaround from setup to 70% gain demonstrates effective boredom trade execution on clear technical setup.
“is that log?”
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Logarithmic growth charts are fundamental to understanding non-linear functions and should inform risk assessment in markets.
- LLMs can be effectively used as Socratic tutors and reading companions to deepen mathematical and conceptual understanding.
- Educational design principles in AI tutoring UI could be improved to better facilitate learning outcomes.
The Army Needs Good Leaders. Why Is Hegseth Firing Them? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Army Secretary Driscoll resigned after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth over military promotions and merit-based advancement.
- Hegseth has purged or sidelined senior officers to remove perceived 'wokeness' while favoring political allies, creating Pentagon friction.
- Concurrently, US strikes on Iran escalated tensions as oil prices rose and global markets reacted to geopolitical risks.
Ramblings & Ruminations: Instability, Soft Patch Bonds, New Trade Idea
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Correlation and dispersion metrics are at extremes, suggesting critical market conditions despite lack of Risk Off weeks, following Dornbusch's principle that unravels happen suddenly after delay.
- Tape technicals show weakness across momentum, divergences, and breadth despite protection remaining cheap, indicating potential disconnect between signals and market positioning.
- Economic soft patch thesis is resurfacing with bond implications as the author develops a new trade idea based on these macro conditions.
Douglas Murray: 9/11 and the War on the Truth
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A new wave of 9/11 conspiracy theories from the right, left, and extremists is gaining prominence as a new generation too young to recall the attacks firsthand comes of age.
- Debunked claims like Building 7 controlled demolition are being amplified through platforms like Tucker Carlson's podcast, requiring those who remember to actively refute these narratives.
- Murray argues society must state 9/11 truths clearly and loudly to keep the nation morally anchored and counter coordinated disinformation campaigns.
Queers Vs the Uncomfortable Presence of Truth
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Social actors often begin friendly and ingratiating to gain access to victims' networks, jobs, and social standing before attempting to usurp and remove them from their own circles.
- Once positioned for takeover, these actors become uncomfortable around their targets and orchestrate removal through employment reports, social exile, and preventing direct confrontation.
- An Irish actor's withdrawal from a London theater role based on co-star Maureen Lipman's Israel-Palestine views exemplifies how manufactured discomfort is weaponized to control narratives and social spaces.
They Shorted the Wrong Side of AI
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Jackson Hole produced hawkish rhetoric with rates held steady and gold/ten-year yields rising, though effects are likely temporary.
- The author's Phase 3 basket strategy has shifted due to changed market conditions following Jackson Hole.
- August's noise-to-signal ratio suggests the prudent approach is often to do nothing rather than force trades when the setup is unclear.
Macro · 16
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets are flat with little directional momentum; key economic data including Trade Balance, Weekly Claims, Services PMI, and ISM Services are scheduled for release.
- International markets show modest movement with Europe unchanged (industrials higher, consumer lower) and Asia subdued, while tensions escalate with China testing Japanese naval forces.
- The higher rate era remains the dominant macro theme with borrowing concerns extending beyond simple debt levels to broader market structure issues.
What does Donald do next?
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian leadership but failed to trigger regime collapse or domestic uprising, hardening the IRGC's control.
- Tactical military success was achieved with 85% of Iran's weapons industrial base damaged, but strategic objectives remain unmet as Iran retains missile and drone capability.
- America has depleted over half its pre-war munitions stocks and global interceptor reserves are strained, raising questions about long-term readiness and costs.
Pain Is Not Compliance
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Markets rallied on hopes of a cooling Iran conflict and Fed capitulation, but historical evidence suggests sanctions pain alone does not force compliance.
- The US 'Operation Economic Outcast' campaign against Iran aims to sever all economic lifelines, but Cuba's 60-year embargo defiance shows durability of sanctioned regimes.
- Economic coercion without military pressure has consistently failed to change adversary behavior, raising doubts about the current strategy's effectiveness.
9/2 Portfolio Strategy Note & Commentary
MacroEdge Research
- The September Fed rate decision is currently priced at 60/40 odds but outcome may matter less given strong fiscal support in markets.
- Bond vigilantes have a limited window to spike the 10Y and trigger a 1987-style correction before fiscal backstops fully activate.
- Left-tail risks must materialize from black swan events given the persistent fiscal hand supporting asset prices.
The Observatory
Prometheus Research
- The Observatory monitors real-time US macroeconomic data with systematic analysis of Treasury releases, inflation, and GDP impacts.
- Monetary policy shows material tightening pressures with short rates elevated, while limited steepening in yield curves despite positioning.
- Fixed income assets remain under material pressure as short-rate monetary policy pressure gauges stay extremely elevated.
The Scaling versus Profitability Trade-off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- Venture capital has historically prioritized scaling over profitability, a trend that has intensified over the past two decades.
- This scaling-first mentality, while common among VCs, creates a fundamental trade-off that may not be optimal for long-term business sustainability.
- The emphasis on growth at the expense of profitability has downstream consequences for startups and the broader economy.
Nominal Growth Dominates
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Research tracks macro regime probabilities using bottom-up signals across asset markets to provide forward-looking cross-asset environment estimates.
- Four key regimes are identified based on growth and inflation dynamics, with corresponding asset class outperformance expectations.
- The current focus is on nominal growth dominance as a key driver of cross-asset returns.
Canada’s Discouraged Youth
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Canada's economy remains weakest in G7 despite Q2 return to growth, with structural issues persisting in labor market.
- Youth employment suffering disproportionately, creating long-term consequences for future economic prosperity and generational outcomes.
- Analysis follows prior notes on Canadian economic weakness and USDCAD trading opportunities as currency moved from 1.38 to 1.4250.
Yields, Yen, and Yield Curve Games: Inside Bessent's Playbook
Grizzle Research and Quant
- US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.5% to 4.72%, with MOVE index rising to 83.0, now considered more important than VIX for monitoring risk aversion.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent is actively suppressing yields through coordinated yen intervention with Japan and willingness to increase long-term Treasury repurchases.
- Rising bond yields driven by fiscal supply concerns and G7 government bonds increasingly priced on sustainability rather than traditional inflation-employment metrics.
This Is Not 2022. It May Be a More Difficult Bond Regime.
Global Macro Method
- Current bond selloff is smaller in price terms (4.2% vs 23% in 2022) but reflects deeper repricing of policy, real rates, and global cost of capital.
- Markets are repricing how long restrictive rates must remain, real rate levels required, and compensation needed for expanding fiscal supply.
- The 2026 regime differs fundamentally from 2022 as it involves policy normalization with restrictive conditions already in place, not violent repricing from near-zero rates.
The Brilliance and Arrogance of Bessent and Katayama
Weston Nakamura from Across The Spread
- Warren and Bessent's letters reveal the US has taken no direct FX intervention to support JPY, undermining claims of 'joint coordination.'
- Japan has been operating alone in currency intervention while the US claims coordination, exposing a strategic narrative gap.
- Bessent's aggressive stance and lack of coordination with Japan signals unilateral Treasury policy despite public statements of partnership.
Fighting Over the Photo-Op as Bonds Burn
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Global bond yields hit 2008 highs with US 10-year at 4.81% and Japan's 10-year breaking 3% for first time since 1996, signaling systemic stress.
- US strikes on Iran pushed Brent oil above $95 and European gas to 2023 levels, lighting a fuse under global yields and equity weakness.
- G20 officials focused on optics and geopolitical tensions rather than coordinated response to $40 trillion global debt burden and bond market warning signals.
Is the UK Heading for a Controlled Default?
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- UK gilt market trades at a 'moron premium'—higher yields demanded relative to comparable debt—due to absence of a clear debt trajectory sustainability plan.
- Guest Damian Pudner, veteran interest-rate trader and now monetary economics scholar, discusses why the UK debt situation lacks investor confidence despite no unique structural problems.
- The interview examines whether the UK is heading toward a controlled default and what policy directions might restore market confidence.
The Observatory
Prometheus Research
- ISM Manufacturing data shows expanding industrial sector with potential for acceleration, though rate-of-change indicators suggest apex may be approaching.
- Real GDP growth remains supported by manufacturing momentum, though further acceleration appears limited based on internals decomposition.
- The Observatory systematically monitors time-series characteristics, sectoral data, macro-cycle implications, and inflation effects across all major US economic releases.
Inflation Eats At Assets: Commodities Needed
Prometheus Research
- Forward-looking macro regime probabilities indicate rising nominal growth with elevated inflationary pressures dominating current market conditions.
- Energy price weakness reflects regime-expected returns in an environment of falling growth and rising inflation (stagflationary backdrop).
- Commodities should outperform in the current macro regime of rising growth and rising inflation, supporting allocation to commodity-linked assets.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity remains elevated but momentum is lacking due to stalled underlying liquidity creation across major central banks.
- PBoC liquidity injections and benign funding conditions (firm bond values, low volatility) are supporting current levels.
- Risk assets are underperforming due to weak liquidity growth outside of China's central bank actions.
Culture · 14
Is America Sobering Up?
Demography Unplugged
- U.S. alcohol consumption hit a record low with only 54% of adults drinking, down 13 percentage points from 2022.
- Binge drinking has declined to 13% of Americans, with steeper drops among men and younger adults than other demographics.
- Despite lower consumption rates, alcohol-related deaths remain elevated, suggesting a disconnect between drinking prevalence and health outcomes.
Citizen AYNE: the very serious look at sport and media. Episode 4, brought by 54.
Roger Mitchell from As In The Lake
- Sport media-rights deals are hitting commercialization limits, with French football facing a crisis and piracy challenges.
- Rugby's crowded calendar and private-equity influx signal tension between expanding rights revenue and product quality.
- Future growth may depend on better fan experiences, smarter bundles, and compelling content rather than bigger broadcast deals alone.
Some People Have Real Problems
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Personal essay reflecting on life's minor frustrations, using a malfunctioning home elevator as metaphor.
- Author contrasts current small problems with past severe mental health struggles to provide perspective.
- Explores how everyday annoyances can test personal relationships and patience despite overall life improvement.
Everything You Don’t Know about Pastry but Need to Ask
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Professional pastry-making differs significantly from home baking, with specialized techniques that separate amateurs from trained chefs.
- Preventing caramel seizing involves strategic addition of room-temperature butter and heated cream in multiple portions.
- Pre-baking tart and pie crusts requires overnight freezing before preparation to set dough and remove excess moisture.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets trading lower with elevated Treasury yield concerns creating market uncertainty.
- Physical fitness combined with intellectual pursuits creates compounding life benefits and personal development.
- Quality historical narrative and storytelling principles enhance educational value and engagement with complex subjects.
You’re eating too late (It’s why you feel like you’ve been hit by a semi truck in the morning)
Parent Fit Club
- Eating cutoff should be three hours before bedtime, not a fixed 7pm rule, requiring personalized calculation based on sleep schedule.
- Late-night eating after 9pm—snacks consumed as rewards—triggers metabolic and sleep quality disruption identical to formal meals.
- Randomized crossover studies with identical calories, macros, and conditions show timing alone significantly impacts morning fatigue and recovery.
Wisdom of the elders
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Dashiell Hammett's 1933 novel 'The Thin Man' depicts gold hoarding during the Great Depression as a rational individual defense strategy.
- The passage illustrates that popular novelists understood banking fragility mechanisms decades before economists formally explained the Great Depression.
- The author reflects on inherited wisdom from his late father about financial prudence and the timelessness of economic instability concerns.
Cook for Nutrient Uptake: Food Science Meets Ayurvedic Kitchen Sense
Nutritional Wellness
- Nutrient bioavailability—what the body actually absorbs—differs from raw nutrient content, with improper cooking destroying micronutrients and causing nutrient loss.
- Heat and water-soluble micronutrients are most fragile; common mistakes like boiling vegetables and discarding cooking water waste nutritional value.
- Combining food science with Ayurvedic cooking wisdom suggests gentle cooking and slow-simmering preserves more nutrients than raw or overcooked preparations.
Longevity journalism is failing its readers
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Time and National Geographic published credulous longevity journalism featuring Harvard geneticist David Sinclair, who has a documented history of overstating research claims.
- Headlines presented speculative hopes (reversing blindness, ending aging) as current research achievements, misleading readers about scientific progress.
- The publications' failure to scrutinize Sinclair's track record of false assertions undermines credibility and misinforms the public about longevity science.
That’s a Wrap on Summer
Scott Galloway
- Scott Galloway emphasizes storytelling as the ultimate leadership superpower, with the Prof G Media team releasing a toolkit covering science of storytelling and design differentiation.
- Series covers research-backed storytelling techniques, the role of design as competitive advantage, and podcast production insights on hooks, attention, and trust-building.
- Content drawn from expert perspectives including head of research, long-term business partner, and senior producers with years of media production experience.
Why the Great Books Still Matter in a Pluralistic Society
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- In pluralistic societies, shared cultural knowledge from Great Books provides unity and continuity across diverse populations by connecting current scholarship with inherited intellectual traditions.
- Modern schools prioritize representation over greatness in curriculum choices and decolonize teaching from older literature, reducing student exposure to classic texts despite their universal relevance.
- Great Books retain significance precisely through their universality—their exploration of timeless questions about human nature, morality, and society transcends contemporary politics and demographic categories.
Wendell Berry’s Nine Rules
Ted Gioia
- Wendell Berry articulated nine rules for evaluating new technology, emphasizing practical utility over convenience.
- Berry practiced what he preached, writing with pen and paper and a 1956 typewriter rather than adopting computers.
- His framework remains relevant today as society grapples with technology adoption and its effects on authentic work and connection to nature.
You should send your kids to work
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Early workforce experience, like Jensen Huang and the author working in service jobs as teens, builds character, humility, and work ethic.
- Teen summer employment has declined and represents a loss of formative life experience that helps young people develop resilience and perspective.
- Working in entry-level jobs while young teaches respect for all professions and creates confidence in tackling any challenge.
Physical Attractiveness is a Solved Problem
Chaotic Neutral
- Waist-to-height ratio is a superior metric to waist-to-hip ratio for measuring body composition and attractiveness standards.
- The average American woman (5'4", 174 lbs) scores 5.3 on a standardized scale and would need to lose 45 pounds to reach a 7.
- Rising obesity rates better explain perceptions of unreasonable body standards for women than shifts in celebrity proportions alone.
Markets · 13
The Odds Against Stock Pickers
Andrew Sarna
- Only 12% of active managers outperformed their benchmarks over the past decade, with 79% of large-cap equity funds underperforming the S&P 500 in the most recent year.
- The 79% underperformance rate in 2025 represents the fourth-worst result in 25 years of tracking data, indicating structurally worsening odds for active stock pickers.
- The analysis raises fundamental questions about whether past outperformers can be identified in advance and what realistic edge individual investors can achieve through stock selection.
Thinking Out Loud 9/2/2026 & FAM DCA Buys
TKTheContrarian
- Flutter ($FLUT) owns FanDuel with 43-44% US sports betting market share but faces pressure from prediction market competitors.
- Stock has collapsed from $300+ in 2025 to $100 currently, valuing the company at $17.7B against 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.87B and modeled FCF of $760M.
- Valuation metrics suggest the stock is significantly oversold relative to cash generation and market position.
A Reset into an Acceleration
Eliant
- Middle East tensions between U.S. and Iran driving crude oil higher and dampening equity performance for the week.
- S&P 500 down ~50bps while Nasdaq down ~100bps as geopolitical uncertainty pressures tech stocks.
- Author promoting Plutus platform for real-time tracking of actively managed portfolio with continuous updates.
Haymaker Daily
The Haymaker Team
- The S&P 500 is up approximately 12.5% year-to-date on a total return basis.
- This year's market advance has been broader than historical patterns, with the equally-weighted S&P index tracking ahead of the main index's gains.
2026 Year-to-Date Performance Report
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Pinebrook generated +21.58% YTD return through August 2026, outperforming S&P 500 by 9.30% with +7.79% in August alone.
- Risk metrics improved significantly from July trough: Sharpe ratio 1.20 (up from 0.83), Sortino 1.18 (up from 0.81), downside capture 108.6%.
- July 13-16 repositioning strategy validated by August performance, with maximum drawdown of -10.29% expected to roll off as stronger results accumulate.
Higher Yields, Higher Pressure
Andrew Sarna
- Brent crude surged above $95 on Middle East tensions; 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.8%, highest since 2023.
- Hyperscalers and NVIDIA issued ~$320B in debt YTD 2026, with $310B in 10-year equivalents representing 70% of new long-duration Treasury borrowing.
- Rising yields are tightening financial conditions across equities, while AI debt issuance and reduced buybacks contribute to Big Tech underperformance.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US and European markets declined as yields continued grinding higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.82%.
- Asian markets fell sharply overnight (Japan -2.4%, China -1%, Korea -4.0%) on oil and yield jolt concerns.
- Oil prices and European gas hit multi-month/year highs, with G-20 officials at odds over fiscal coordination.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- USDA is deploying AI and satellite tools for crop forecasting improvements, potentially reducing modeling uncertainty for agricultural markets.
- Geopolitical escalation in Iran conflict has pushed WTI over $90, with soybeans returning to teen price levels amid position bias concerns.
- Cotton market returned to prominence and September Federal Reserve meeting confirmed, both affecting agricultural commodity trading strategies.
Some People Just Can’t Handle a Bull Market
Nico from AiQ
- Cash grain traders and physical market participants cannot identify bull cycles because they rely on legacy late signals and outdated hedging advice, causing them to sell too early.
- Farmers consistently fail to capture upside by hedging prematurely while analysts chase prices like dogs chasing cars, creating prolonged bull cycles as majority ignores paradigm shifts.
- Bull markets extend longer precisely because physical traders and farmers refuse to acknowledge the shift as it happens, fighting the move for months instead of adapting to new market dynamics.
Quality of Cash: The Supplier Addition
Cape Fear Advisors
- Circular financing through trade receivables is ordinary commerce (like 60-day invoicing terms) but raises questions about creditor vs. buyer commitment obligations when the same instruments are financed together.
- Credit creates creditors while purchase commitments create write-down obligations—two distinct risks that are often financed as one instrument, leaving ambiguity about who bears responsibility in failure scenarios.
- The distinction between ordinary trade finance and alarming arrangements depends on which party actually provides recourse when the underlying transaction fails.
YWR: A stock idea from God
PAIDErik@YWR
- Palliative care (low-acuity home healthcare) is growing rapidly as Medicare covers in-home nursing for homebound patients with multiple comorbidities.
- A local hospice provider grew from 40 patients four years ago to over 200, indicating strong demand and market tailwinds.
- The shift from nursing homes to home-based care presents a compelling investment opportunity in healthcare stocks positioned to capture this trend.
“Dollar Devaluation” Is Bearish Equities
Capital Flows
- The author shifted from aggressively bullish to neutral stance on equities one month ago due to deteriorating positioning and macro backdrop.
- Recent success came from tactical trades including long gold, short volatility, and identifying ES 7670 as a critical bearish flip level.
- Dollar devaluation dynamics now present headwinds for equities, warranting a cash-heavy approach and waiting for better risk-reward opportunities.
Why The Bond Market Rout Is Accelerating... and Why Our Signals Have Turned Red
Garrett Baldwin
- Bond market is experiencing a global rout with the firm's Capital Wave scores flipping red, signaling increased probability of larger downturns unless there is additional government intervention.
- Jackson Hole presentations sparked bond market reaction despite limited media attention, showing the market's sensitivity to policy signals.
- Rising government debt, AI company capital needs, and real estate pressures are impacting collateral quality and global capital availability.
Energy · 11
MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/2
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Oil markets are tracking two distinct technical scenarios with scenario B pointing to a potential mid-80s dip, though support floors are rising.
- SPR drawdowns have become less effective as buffers shrink; no domestic or international production surge is anticipated to ease supply pressure.
- An 8-week 'period of patience' is expected to continue tightening inventories, with fuel prices at record highs despite Trump's reported search for an off-ramp.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 8-28-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Crude drew 4.5 MMB with SPR releasing 3.1 MMB; inventories slightly above seasonal average but planned SPR tenders running low.
- WTI at $90 is discounted to estimated fair value; SPR releases expected to cease in September without new government action.
- US commercial inventories will resume drawing at record rates once SPR supply ends, pressured by ongoing high exports and import levels.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-vol coking coal jumped $6.10/t to $276.10/t fob following 80,000t trade at $274.50/t for October loading.
- Physical market rallied on fresh trade while SGX futures sold off sharply, creating divergence between fob/cfr assessments and derivative pricing.
- Tier-two hard coking coal up $2.70/t with bid activity in October-loading Curragh material, indicating market resilience and Chinese demand.
Josh Young on The David Lin Report
Bison Insights
- Josh Young discusses elevated oil price risk on David Lin Report, highlighting Trump Administration Venezuela announcement with limited near-term market impact.
- Analysis addresses oil market manipulation risks and potential consequences for crude prices amid geopolitical developments.
- Interview covers both bullish oil thesis and emerging risks in global petroleum markets from policy and manipulative activity.
Water crisis? Build more data centres.
Irina Slav on energy
- Europe faces severe droughts causing nuclear plant shutdowns in Hungary and Romania, disrupting river commerce and fueling wildfires.
- European hyperscale data center market projected to grow at 17.53% CAGR through 2031 despite water scarcity concerns.
- EU paradoxically plans massive data center expansion while grappling with worsening drought and record heat across the continent.
Uranium: The Era of Cheap Uranium Is Over
Asymmetric Research
- The era of cheap uranium has ended, with spot prices moving higher and sector valuations improving since July.
- Recent developments strengthen the uranium investment thesis, with YCA highlighted for attractive risk-reward at potential $150/lb prices.
- Kazakh uranium dynamics remain underappreciated by markets despite their critical role in global supply.
War Note: Oil Takes a Seat at the Blackjack Table
MacroEdge Research
- US airstrikes against Iranian assets briefly escalated geopolitical tensions, followed by administration statements claiming Hormuz strait flows remain stable at 17 million barrels.
- Refined product prices hit elevated levels (PADD5 diesel ~$210/bbl, NY Harbor diesel >$200/bbl), bleeding into aviation, logistics, commodities and agricultural prices.
- Market outlook depends on tanker attack frequency; sideways-to-down action expected unless escalation occurs, with October being a critical decision point.
The Big Problem With Trump’s 65 Billion Barrel Oil Deal: Timing
Bison Insights
- Trump's 65-billion-barrel Venezuelan oil deal faces a critical timing problem: developing new production requires years of drilling and infrastructure investment before meaningful output increase.
- Venezuelan oil production has recovered primarily from restarting existing wells rather than new development, with production down from 3.5M to 1.2M barrels per day due to years of underinvestment and mismanagement.
- The article explains infrastructure requirements for the next development phase, implications for oil prices, and identifies drilling-related investment ideas positioned to benefit from increased activity.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatility coal held steady at $270/t fob Australia in late August after a sharp $53.70/t rally from July lows.
- SGX futures show a flat front-month contract at $279/t with outer-strip weakness, signaling market uncertainty beyond immediate months.
- Limited index-eligible trading activity suggests traders were cautiously positioned awaiting directional clarity in energy markets.
LatAm gushers and possible Venezuela exit a nightmare for Opec
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- Trump's seizure of Venezuelan leader Maduro and plans to control Venezuela's 65 billion barrels of oil reserves could trigger Venezuela's exit from OPEC.
- Venezuela's potential departure would represent OPEC's second major member loss within months (after UAE) and undermine the cartel's original nationalist founding principle.
- Increased Latin American oil production coupled with OPEC fragmentation could pressure global oil prices despite minimal immediate impact from Venezuela's 1.2 million bpd output.
Long Energy
Prometheus Research
- Prometheus Multi-Strategy Program has reallocated to positive energy exposure with the oil complex returning to favor.
- Short-rate timing signals are increasing negative beta to US Treasuries, reflecting shifts in market positioning.
- Macro regime indicators suggest rising nominal growth with elevated inflation, favoring commodities and equities over fixed income.
Politics · 9
It's a Slopulist World and We're All Just Living in It
PAIDKonstantin Kisin
- The author critiques the absurdist nature of contemporary political culture, using Milo Yiannopoulos's recent ICE deportation and media appearances as a case study.
- Yiannopoulos's contradictory positions—previously advocating ICE immunity but now condemning his own deportation treatment—exemplify the incoherence of current populist movements.
- The piece explores how provocateurs and politicians exploit performative outrage and hypocrisy for entertainment and personal gain.
How The Pro-Peace Palestinians Can Win
John Aziz
- Palestinian public opinion shows majority support for continued 'resistance' even after hypothetical 1967-borders statehood.
- Author argues genuine peace agreement must be upheld to prevent Palestinian state from becoming another Gaza-like enclave.
- Explores disconnect between pro-peace Palestinian negotiators and skeptical public unwilling to abandon claims to broader territories.
How DEI Opened the Door to the Red-Green Alliance—and Why We Must Shut It
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Trump administration credited for dismantling DEI programs facing opposition from 'red-green alliance' of progressives and Islamists.
- Massachusetts Senate Bill S.2134 proposes permanent commission to fast-track Muslim Americans into state government positions.
- Author frames Islamism as totalitarian ideology advancing through peaceful institutions beyond terrorism, requiring institutional vigilance.
AMUSE
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Alexander Muse (@amuse) is a half-million-follower political account on the American right with reach of ~10M monthly Americans and influence over GOP leadership.
- Muse was banned from X after January 6, restored by Elon Musk, and now operates three Substacks plus daily X op-eds with direct access to administration insiders.
- The interview discusses Muse's role in Republican politics, his Texas Senate race coverage, and his position as a key voice in Trump-aligned conservative media.
Clarence Thomas: The Justice With the Courage to Stand Alone
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ted Cruz's book examines Justice Clarence Thomas through his personal history and constitutional philosophy rather than as a caricature or reliable conservative vote.
- Thomas's jurisprudence becomes more comprehensible when understood through his formative experiences in segregated Georgia and his evolution from 1960s radicalism to constitutional conservatism.
- The work addresses how Thomas's skepticism of institutional authority shapes his approach to constitutional interpretation and governance.
The Folly of Court-Packing
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democrats believe structural political bias disadvantages them despite winning popular vote in six of last seven elections, pointing to Electoral College and Supreme Court composition.
- Court-packing proposals reflect broader Democratic grievance that Republicans built durable judicial majority through presidents who lost popular votes.
- Both parties suffer from perception of losing despite electoral performance, but Democrats increasingly attribute losses to institutional rather than electoral factors.
Quick Take: Proposals to Fund the Social Security Trust Fund, and What We Shouldn't Do
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Recent proposal to reprice Federal Reserve gold certificates at market value would create ~$1 trillion to fund Social Security trust fund shortfall.
- David Kotok argues the proposal is fiscally illusory—creating money 'out of thin air' does not solve the underlying trust fund problem since holdings are book-entry Treasury securities.
- Repricing gold is acceptable policy, but using proceeds to address Social Security insolvency masks structural entitlement funding challenges without solving them.
Mansour Abbas: Islamist or Pragmatist?
John Aziz
- Mansour Abbas represents a pragmatic approach to Palestinian-Israeli coexistence by joining an Israeli government coalition in 2021 as the first Arab-Palestinian minister, departing from traditional rejection of collaboration.
- Abbas prioritizes concrete constituent issues—crime, violence, housing, economic distress—over ideological positioning, demonstrating that problem-solving can transcend historical conflict divisions.
- As both Israeli and Palestinian identifier, Abbas exemplifies a complex individual navigating religious Muslim identity while pursuing practical governance focused on community welfare.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Trump administration achieved significant wins on crime reduction, energy production, border security, and regulatory rollback, balanced by failures on Iran, deficits, and abuse of presidential power.
- The author assigns an interim grade of B+ with final evaluation deferred to 2028.
- The author notes shifting political narratives, with academic rigor and scientific method now labeled as right-wing positions.
Trading · 7
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Overnight selling session pressured commodities across cotton, cocoa, and coffee as crude oil peaked.
- Sugar outperformed with ~2% gain on Brazilian weather forecasts and tight Indian cash markets.
- Employment data tomorrow expected to set tone for Federal Reserve's September meeting decision.
What’s On Tap Next Week
Garrett Baldwin
- Author planning structured programming changes for fall season, including new live course starting Monday at noon.
- Announcing new platform tools for paid subscribers with 10 daily stock recommendations and macro analysis.
- Personal anecdote about unruly new dog illustrates transition into fall/school season mindset shifts.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/3
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Overnight trading sessions proved more volatile and rewarding than regular trading hours for early entries.
- Author highlights value of pre-planned trade setups that can be executed flexibly during volatile overnight periods.
- SPY, QQQ, and GLD weekly analysis should be reviewed prior to daily market analysis.
What’s Next?
Garrett Baldwin
- Money Printer Pro platform unveiled with 10 daily stock recommendations and daily macro story analysis.
- Signal has consistently turned negative before major downturns and green before rallies since 2020 inception.
- New tools and content restructuring planned for September to enhance paid subscriber experience beyond trading signals.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Somnigroup International (SGI), a $15.5B market cap bedding company, shows oversold conditions after a 23% peak-to-trough decline since late June.
- Technical indicators (daily MACD, stochastics, DeMARK) suggest a short-term low has been established with potential for upside follow-through.
- Intermediate-term upside target around $80 (May/June highs and 200-day MA) with support and stop-loss near $61 (May low) provides favorable risk/reward.
đź’¬ New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry initiates a discussion thread focused on technical analysis of stocks and market performance.
- Burry uses lightly applied technical analysis with tools like Yahoo Finance Portfolio snapshot mode and daily charts ranked by performance.
- The thread is intended as a collaborative learning space for technical analysis practitioners, explicitly excluding critics of the methodology.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/2
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Market failed to hold yesterday's end-of-day rally; bulls received a 'truth bomb' as bearish RTH gaps remain unfilled on SPY/QQQ.
- Analysis emphasizes that while price can 'find out,' value tells the truth about market positioning and upcoming support/resistance levels.
- Technical context references previous weekly analysis and intraday trade setups for ongoing management in choppy market conditions.
Tech · 4
Anthropic just launched Claude Commerce Agents to keep retailers off ChatGPT & Gemini 🛍️🤖; 21 banks built a stab…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic launched Claude Commerce Agents to enable retailers to process transactions directly, reducing dependence on ChatGPT and Gemini ecosystems.
- Twenty-one major banks (BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs) jointly launched a stablecoin, with timing tied to regulatory momentum and concerns about Circle's market position versus Tether.
- The stablecoin architecture and governance structure mirror emerging patterns in euro-denominated solutions, while yield retention strategies in fintech are shifting away from APY as the primary lever.
An Israeli Company Built a Helmet Designed to Help the Brain Recover After a Stroke
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- An Israeli company has developed a helmet device designed to help patients recover brain function after suffering a stroke at home.
- Stroke remains a leading cause of long-term disability, affecting millions annually, with most survivors facing permanent loss of function in affected areas.
- The innovation represents a technological approach to addressing post-stroke rehabilitation outside of traditional clinical settings.
Revolut AIR launches across Europe, but one EU neobank already has better AI numbers 🤖🇪🇺; Grok Bot shopping mak…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Revolut AIR's EU launch targets bunq's Finn as the real competitive threat rather than Starling, leveraging Revolut's 80M user base and cross-sell infrastructure.
- Grok Bot's agentic shopping launch reveals strategic use of Stripe Link throwaway cards and human-tap liability design rather than pure automation.
- Revolut Research launch timing coincides with AIR rollout, positioning the fintech for product discovery and market dominance in EU neobanking.
This Israeli Spinal Cord Research Could Help Paralyzed People Walk Again
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israeli researchers at Tel Aviv University have grown functional human spinal cord tissue in vitro using patient blood cells.
- The lab-grown tissue represents a potential breakthrough for treating spinal cord injuries that medicine has previously been unable to repair.
- Clinical trials are being organized involving major Israeli hospitals to test implantation of the grown tissue in selected paralyzed patients.
AI · 4
Elon Musk is on a prediction rampage, and most of the media can’t seem to figure out what to do about it.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Elon Musk has repeatedly made ambitious AI predictions (AGI by 2025, then 2027) that have not materialized, demonstrating a pattern of date-shifting.
- Gary Marcus highlights the gap between Musk's exponential hardware deployment claims and actual AI capability advances observed in 2026.
- Marcus offered Musk million-dollar bets on these predictions; Musk did not respond, suggesting questionable confidence in his forecasts.
The AI Industry Has a Really Dark Secret You Should Know About
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- OpenAI's autonomous agents were deployed against Hugging Face in a significant cybersecurity incident, marking the most important AI-centered security event in AI history.
- The incident represents a dark secret in the AI industry regarding agent autonomy and potential misuse of AI systems for malicious purposes.
- Article provides comprehensive ~11,000-word analysis covering technical and business implications of autonomous agent attacks on third-party companies.
Your AI provider can change the deal on you. Here's the 5-prompt audit I run to stay ready.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- OpenAI ending Cursor integration on November 12 demonstrates AI provider risk: companies can cut service relationships unilaterally affecting end users.
- Author pays $600+/month across three AI providers and runs systematic 30-minute audit to ensure work portability and avoid vendor lock-in.
- Five-prompt audit framework tests whether AI projects can transfer between providers, revealing which capabilities are truly portable versus provider-dependent.
Red Alert: OpenAI is poised to cross an AI safety redline.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI is exploring techniques that hide model 'thinking' processes, reducing transparency and making safety monitoring significantly harder or impossible.
- Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is a fragile but critical safety tool; sacrificing it for marginal performance gains creates unacceptable risks.
- Better monitoring could have prevented the Hugging Face incident according to OpenAI's own admission, making this development a dangerous regression.