★ Priority · 7
Spencer Cox: The Day Charlie Kirk Died. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Charlie Kirk was assassinated on September 10, 2025, by a 31-year-old shooter at Utah Valley University in front of millions.
- Utah Governor Spencer Cox was present within hours and led the effort to find the shooter, becoming a voice for mending broken American politics.
- Kirk's death did not serve as the unifying wake-up call some hoped for and instead unleashed further political derangement.
đŹ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- WTI crude oil is pushing above July highs near $95 with resistance at $99-100, with daily RSI near July's peak of 71.
- Copper is rallying out of consolidation into range of new all-time highs while yields and precious metals show muted reactions.
- An open gap remains at $107-108 for WTI crude oil, representing potential upside resistance.
Being Jewish is Punk
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Jewish identity is framed as an active choice to question, build, thrive, and resist rather than a passive assigned status.
- Jews represent 0.2% of global population yet face persistent historical persecution despite being Holocaust survivors and establishing rights to homeland and self-defense.
- Jewish resilience and refusal to be silenced is portrayed as the true source of ongoing obsession and fixation from others.
- The piece asserts Jewish people have asked for thousands of years simply to exist peacefully, a request persistently denied.
IS IT THE END OF THE ROAD FOR GLD/TLT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GLD/TLT trade strategy may be ending as long-dated treasury returns have deteriorated worse than 1970s levels due to lower coupon duration.
- 10-year commodity returns have strengthened, questioning whether sustained bearish positioning on treasuries remains optimal.
- Political shift back to fiscal conservatism would signal the end of this trade setup.
I Was a Workaholic. Quitting Changed My Life.
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Reformed workaholic author challenges cultural glorification of relentless grind, particularly after recognizing darker patterns in pursuit of perseverance.
- Quitting is reframed as courageous decision-making and path to something better, not a failure of resolve.
- Essay examines generational shifts in work meaning and sustainability as economic structures around employment continue evolving.
The Quiet Turning
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Market participants have internalized that grifting behavior goes unpunished, making bets on fraud a rational market strategy.
- Exaggeration and deception are now normalized in pitching to tech companies, treated as ordinary marketing rather than fraud.
- Truthful data loses competitive advantage when inflated claims are accepted without audit or consequence.
- Common knowledge of institutional weakness enables moral hazard to become a dominant strategy in capital allocation.
STRAP YOURSELF IN...
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Barron's cover declaring 'death of safe haven' in bonds echoes previous market proclamations after decade-long asset class performance drought.
- Positioning extremes across markets create dangerous conditions: S&P at 92nd percentile long, VIX near all-time short extreme, SOFR at record short.
- Treasury yield rises pose portfolio risks but may represent bond recovery rather than permanent obsolescence of the asset class.
- September marks one of the most important macro weeks with significant market positioning risks and potential history-making moves ahead.
Macro · 18
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity supported by benign funding conditions but underlying liquidity creation remains weak with negative SMB growth.
- Investor risk appetite remains strong, increasingly favoring select developed markets and commodity-related emerging markets.
The Bond Vigilantes Hold the Keys
Andrew Sarna
- Bond vigilantes are revolting with rising global yields creating a serious problem for markets and policymakers, trapping US policy between rate hike and fiscal worsening.
- Fed Governor Waller's dovish stance pushed yields down but strong payroll data increased September rate hike probability, with CPI next week critical.
- Hyperscaler capital spending continues pushing yields higher while fiscal restraint faces political obstacles and entitlement reform remains off the table.
Weekly Macro Note: Another Day, More Inflation and Around the Globe We Go
MacroEdge Research
- Labor Day marks a seasonal turning point where market participants lock focus through year-end amid robust economic changes ahead.
- Energy price movements and yields matter more than Fed rate decisions; fiscal dominance and compromised macro data require reliance on alternative signals.
- Whether Fed moves 25 basis points or stays put will have minimal immediate effectâyields will either rise (if no hike) or remain rangebound (if hike).
- The critical question for Q4 is interpreting low-quality macro data through energy and yield dynamics rather than FOMC headline moves.
The Short Side of National Security
Craig Tindale
- Government financing for industrial expansion must secure actual production capacity, not just factory announcements; Roosevelt tied public investment to preventing war profiteering.
- Financial actors can profit by short-selling defense contractors while Washington commits public money to their factories, creating perverse incentives against national security.
- Capital access and qualification timelines matter more than award announcements; without financing for inventory and production, factories remain mere paper commitments.
- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs openly profit from securities lending and short positions against strategic industrial builders, betting against US national security.
Observations: Marking to market
Thematic Markets
- Author's views on Kevin Warsh tightening Fed policy significantly and Trump pursuing aggressive Iran policy have been sharply challenged by recent market action.
- While some associated market calls proved definitively wrong, time has not yet rendered final judgment on the underlying strategic positions.
- Expectations for economy, inflation and broader market trends have held up better than specific policy and geopolitical calls.
- Post updates published views against market feedback received over the last month to reassess positioning.
This isnât just about Jaguar Land Rover (or VW)
Ed Conway
- Supply chains function like fungal mycelium underpinning modern economy; most knowledge about them comes from observing failures rather than normal operation.
- VW/JLR troubles exemplify broader supply chain vulnerabilities; understanding how systems break reveals structural design lessons.
- Complex interconnections in global supply chains mean localized disruptions cascade economically; Japan's 2011 tsunami wiped out critical nodes in auto production.
- Economic systems are best understood through extreme cases and breakdowns rather than steady-state operation.
Walk in the Pines #413
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Newsletter aggregates key macro reads, listens, and watches including Nazem's three-part valuation series and Norway SWF Treasury reduction proposal.
- Includes Seneca quote warning against guiding lives by others' examples rather than reason and convention.
- Features Must Founders podcasts on capital allocation (Henry Singleton) and Napoleon, plus PBS Frontline retrospective on Asian Financial Crisis.
- Provides charts of the week and curated content across reads, listens, and watches categories.
[Chart] Fed is a Go
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Fed funds rate should be at 5% based on historical reaction functions to inflation expectations and labor market; currently only at 3.75%, leaving 100+ bps of tightening work.
- Inflation expectations have anchored into a new higher range and labor market is heating up again, signaling need for rate hikes despite recent Fed hesitation.
- Market calm, easy financial conditions, and elevated bond yields suggest markets have already priced in rate hike expectations.
- Over 40% of global central banks have already shifted to rate hike mode; Fed faces pressure to normalize policy or risk credibility.
I Read All 17 BRICS Declarations. Here's What They Actually Built.
Santiago Capital Research
- Analysis of all 17 prior BRICS declarations reveals actual institutional outputs versus hyperbolic media narratives about dollar replacement.
- BRICS summits have produced limited concrete economic infrastructure despite longstanding rhetoric about ending dollar dominance.
- Research relies exclusively on official BRICS documents and audited accounts rather than speculation about upcoming 18th summit outcomes.
Money on sale
Irina Slav on energy
- Money-printing colloquially refers to debt issuance rather than literal currency creation, which would cause hyperinflation in advanced economies.
- Global sovereign debt markets show signs of oversaturation as evidenced by recent bond selloff headlines.
- Understanding the distinction between stocks and bonds reveals why debt accumulation has limits before market stress emerges.
The Eighteenth Brumaire
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- Report covers 200+ slides analyzing commodities, equities, credit markets, and emerging markets through macro themes of fiscal dominance and monetary debasement.
- Explores historical-political parallels (Eighteenth Brumaire) connected to current fiscal urgency and credit market signals.
- Examines Chinese economic dynamics including Yuan internationalization and emerging market positioning alongside traditional asset classes.
The Free Ride on the Dollar is Over with Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist.
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio of 8% far exceeds peers (Canada 2.5%, Europe 2.5-3%, Japan 2%), contradicting decades of fiscal responsibility rhetoric.
- American market dominance over past 20 years resulted from willingness to run large deficits attracting global talent and capital, not superior companies or investors.
- Shifting tariff policies and fiscal dynamics suggest the structural conditions supporting U.S. exceptionalism and market concentration may be ending.
The ECB Can Hike... But....
Global Macro Method
- Market pricing shows 99.6% probability of September ECB 25-basis-point hike, with deeper tightening priced through 2027 reaching near 3% rates.
- Opportunity lies in distinguishing between whether Europe faces a durable inflation cycle or absorbs a front-loaded shock that weakens demand.
- Inflation swaps, wage data, and German yield curve signals suggest market may be overpricing the extent of future ECB tightening.
The Uninsured Dollar
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Foreign holders of US assets have reduced currency hedges to only 41% of exposure, the lowest since 2015, betting the dollar remains strong.
- Recent strong August payroll data (162k vs 56k forecast) temporarily firmed the dollar but masks underlying structural support mechanisms that are shifting.
- Rising US rates and the carry trade have supported the dollar, but these drivers may not be sustainable if economic conditions change.
The Great Monetary Escalation
Capital Flows
- The current global monetary crisis centers on public sector imbalances and real purchasing power erosion, forcing policymakers to choose between fiscal constraints and geopolitical needs.
- Rising defense spending demands due to China threat are pushing governments into fiscal corners, evidenced by Germany's industrial decline and subsequent consumer tax increases.
- The conflict between fiscal spending requirements and funding constraints is creating unprecedented pressure on the global monetary system across multiple countries.
Passivity
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Passive easing continues monthly as Fed maintains rates, with strong economic acceleration in Redbook Sales, ISM, and NFP data creating tightening pressure.
- FOMC credibility is undermined by inconsistent signaling, particularly Fed Waller changing policy stance three times in consecutive speeches with no clear framework.
- Political pressure against rate increases and loss of appeal for US Treasuries among foreign investors may override data-driven policy decisions, with CPI becoming the deciding factor.
The right answer to the wrong question?
Rishi Mishra from On Another Note
- Labor force growth constraints mean payroll data will swing wildly month-to-month, reducing its reliability as a single indicator.
- The unemployment rate at 4.1% is the most meaningful labor metricâslightly below the Fed's 4.2% long-run projection and above their 4.0% floor.
- Low odds of a September rate hike seem inconsistent with persistent inflation overshoot, despite Fed Chair Waller conditioning hikes on achieving 2% inflation.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Gold miners' all-in sustaining costs rose 16% YoY for the 28th consecutive year amid grade depletion and reduced drilling.
- Global bond yields hit highest levels since 2008; Japan's 10-year yield crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years, signaling major shift in fixed income.
- Multiple structural shifts emerging: silver production deficits, record diesel prices, all-time low oil inventories, and data centers consuming 7% of US electricity.
Politics · 11
The Tyranny of the Tiny Majority
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- America faces a 'tyranny of the tiny majority' where closely divided elections enable control of government with sub-50% popular vote support.
- Recent electoral history shows repeated narrow mandates: Trump won with 46.1% in 2016, Biden with 51.3% in 2020, and Trump again with 49.8% in 2024.
- Winner-take-all, two-party system dynamics produce unstable governance that fails to serve interests of both parties or independents.
THE SUM OF ALL EUROPEAN FEARS: THE COST OF RESOLVE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Russia is using drone and missile campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure to induce financial exhaustion and political collapse rather than military defeat.
- European leaders face escalating costs of supporting Ukraine as precision strikes and oil chokepoint threats reshape strategic calculations.
- Moscow is betting Western resolve will fracture before Russian economic resilience; history suggests Ukrainian resistance may harden instead and Europe may accept higher costs as preferable to failure.
- The widening conflict across Iran-Gulf-Ukraine demonstrates how modern warfare chains transcend borders and force allied commitment decisions.
Palestinianism continues to drag Britain down, as Burnham to fast-track sanctions on Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Britain is preparing to sanction Israel over E1 building tenders, with Ed Miliband claiming it destroys the two-state solution.
- The author argues the two-state solution was never binding under Oslo Accords and was effectively ended by October 7, 2023 attacks.
- The piece criticizes UK policy as appeasement to a vocal minority that damages Britain's foreign policy and reputation.
UK Foreign Secretary releases anti-Israel video as Labour government poised to sanction Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham is set to announce fast-tracked sanctions against Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria.
- Announcement follows UK Foreign Secretary releasing an anti-Israel video and comes amid by-election threat in Sir Keir Starmer's former seat.
- Plans face criticism from the White House and some Labour MPs despite government backing.
Weâre witnessing the start of Britainâs Civil War
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Britain experienced major civil unrest over a weekend with migrant boat crossings, road blockades, and police riot formations at Dover and Portsmouth.
- Events marked rise of organized anti-immigration activism with tens of thousands watching protests unfold live online.
- Author examines broader implications of the escalating tensions and civil disorder.
âAdidas Partners with war criminalsâ
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Adidas promoted disabled Israeli athlete Shalev Biton, an amputee who lost his leg to anti-tank missile fire from Gaza, as part of its Single Shoe accessibility initiative.
- The story highlights the tension between corporate social responsibility initiatives and geopolitical sensitivities in conflict-affected regions.
- Article examines how companies navigate partnerships with individuals affected by military conflict and broader political narratives.
The BBC has been up to its old tricks â again
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- BBC producer engagement with the author dropped almost immediately after October 7, 2023, despite the Middle East becoming the biggest international story.
- Author attributes the shift to groupthink, ideological monoculture, or institutional bias at the BBC rather than explicit conspiracy.
- Recent BBC interactions have been marked by poor treatment and perceived haughtiness toward the author, reflecting broader editorial decisions.
US ambassador Huckabee accuses UK government of âJew hateâ over Mililbandâs claim Israel blocks medicine from Gaza
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK Foreign Secretary Miliband released unverified claims that Israel blocks medicine from Gaza, escalating tensions during a sensitive period for British Jews.
- US Ambassador Huckabee accused the British government of 'Jew hate' over these claims, while Israeli Foreign Minister Saar warned of punitive action.
- The controversy highlights diplomatic friction between US, UK, and Israeli positions on Gaza humanitarian access.
BBC Radio 4 invited me on⌠to accuse me of ârage baitingâ
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- BBC Radio 4 invited Sacerdoti to discuss multi-faith prayer rooms but pre-loaded criticism of 'rage-baiting' sourced from the Muslim Council of Britain.
- The MCB has faced government refusal to engage due to concerns about links to Islamist movements and past statements on violence.
- The incident raises questions about editorial fairness when broadcasters solicit opposing statements before air without disclosure.
#4 A Note From Ayaan: 9/11 â Refusing to Forget
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- An entire generation of Americans has no direct memory of 9/11, placing responsibility on those who lived through it to preserve accurate historical record.
- Western institutions often retreat into euphemism about the Islamist ideology behind the attacks, avoiding clear language about the threat.
- Honest remembrance requires naming the attackers, their ideology, and intentionsâessential for maintaining clarity about how terrorism threatens liberal democracies.
The Chicago Teachers Union is suing me
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago Teachers Union filed defamation lawsuit against journalist Austin Berg, attempting to suppress reporting on union leadership and political operations.
- Berg stands by his reporting and pledges to continue investigating the union's inner workings and consequences for Chicago educators.
- Lawsuit appears designed to silence valid criticism through legal intimidation rather than address factual content.
- Author calls for public support through donations and reader engagement with coverage of accountability issues.
Culture · 8
A Few Thoughts About Alex Gibneyâs Musk Documentary
Lawrence from Lawrence Fossiâs Substack
- Documentary filmmaker Alex Gibney interviewed the author for a forthcoming Musk documentary after initially declining participation.
- Gibney is known for critically acclaimed documentaries on Enron, Elizabeth Holmes, and Lance Armstrong, consulting with Tesla critic Ed Niedermeyer.
- The original story focused on Musk's attempt to get the author fired over critical Tesla financial reporting and business practice investigations.
After racist comments about Andi Peters, Miriam Margolyes moves on to âfat peopleâ and âcripplesâ
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Miriam Margolyes made offensive, patronizing, and racist remarks about ITV presenter Andi Peters on This Morning.
- The author argues Margolyes' pattern of controversial provocations should be met with indifference rather than outrage.
- The piece suggests ignoring attention-seeking behavior through provocative comments is more effective than amplifying offense.
Healthy Pumpkin Cinnamon Roll Bars
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Healthy pumpkin cinnamon roll bars combine fall flavors with nutritional benefits: 6g protein and 3g fiber per bar.
- Recipe uses gluten-free oats, refined sugar-free sweeteners, and optional dairy-free substitutions for broad dietary accommodation.
- Three-component construction features oat base, date-cinnamon swirl, and cream cheese frosting all blended together.
Is Islam compatible with the West?
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Winston Marshall addresses the enduring question of Islam's compatibility with the West 25 years after 9/11 with live debate.
- Debate participants include Maajid Nawaz and Raymond Ibrahim representing sharply different perspectives on the topic.
- Event interrogates definitions of 'Islam,' 'the West,' and 'compatible' rather than reducing the question to slogans or social media clips.
The Church That Survived Ground ZeroThe Sanctuary America Still Needs
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- St. Paul's Chapel's miraculous survival at Ground Zero symbolizes need for spiritual and transcendent meaning beyond material security.
- Author argues civilizations cannot withstand tragedy through material or technological responses alone; they require faith and meaning.
- Twenty-five years after 9/11, the essay reflects on how modern Western society's reliance on financial prosperity and technology fails to address deep existential needs.
Who Goes to Heaven?
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Study of near-death experiences shows 80% are positive (white light, peace) and 20% negative (hell-like visions), suggesting religious teachings may have empirical foundation.
- Paradoxically, some death-row murderers report positive NDEs while devout church members report negative ones, challenging conventional Christian doctrine about salvation criteria.
- Author questions whether traditional belief formulas (believe in God/Jesus, repent) fully determine heaven/hell outcomes based on inconsistencies in NDE data.
Amazon is Polluted
Ted Gioia
- Amazon's marketplace is degraded by counterfeit goods and low-quality sellers, despite the company's early promise of unlimited inventory.
- Author's early Amazon investment (1997 at $0.11 post-split) would have yielded massive returns if held longer, illustrating the cost of premature selling.
- Amazon's platform quality decline reflects the broader challenge of maintaining marketplace integrity at scale.
Roasted Mustard Chicken with Boulangère Potatoes & Tarragon Jus: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- One-pan roasted mustard chicken with boulangère potatoes minimizes kitchen effort while building complex flavors through integrated cooking.
- Potatoes release starch into the stock beneath the chicken, naturally thickening juices that become the base for a tarragon jus.
- Quality ingredientsâparticularly free-range chickenâcompensate for minimal technique requirements in this straightforward roast dinner approach.
AI · 7
How to Use GPT-6 Astra, the OpenAI Model Jensen Huang Called AGI đ¤
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra matched Claude Fable 5's coding performance at less than half the cost per task, directly challenging Anthropic's market dominance.
- Jensen Huang's AGI claims lack credibility and faced immediate pushback from researchers and analysts within hours.
- Cost efficiency on coding tasks represents the meaningful metric for evaluating Astra's market impact over AGI proclamations.
What Is Artificial General Intelligence?
John Aziz
- NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claimed OpenAI's GPT 6 Astra represents artificial general intelligence, but has significant financial incentives to hype AGI.
- Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus critiqued Huang's claim as lacking evidence, definitions, or scientific rigor for such a major pronouncement.
- The article examines definitional disputes around AGI and questions whether corporate leaders can credibly claim scientific breakthroughs.
You keep reopening the same decision at midnight because checking it costs a weekend you don't have. GPT-6 Astra iâŚ
Nate from Nateâs Substack
- OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model reduces the investigation cost of significant life decisions by automating complex research and task completion.
- Lower barrier to exploring alternative choicesâcities, careers, services, ideasâincreases practical autonomy and life richness.
- When investigation becomes cheap, previously unaffordable possibilities transform from theoretical to actionable choices.
AI Is Creating More Jobs Than It Is Destroying
John Aziz
- AI has created approximately 1 million jobs in America, far exceeding roughly 200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.
- Historical technology adoption shows new industries and demands emerge to offset job destruction, with internet-era jobs exceeding those displaced by digitalization.
- Mass automation increases individual productivity dramaticallyâone person with 50 robots can perform vastly more workâenabling new sectors and products to be created.
Sad to see Jensen Huang claim that AGI has arrived, with no evidence and no definitions
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Jensen Huang's claim that AGI has arrived lacks evidence and definitions, representing an attempt to settle a scientific question through corporate assertion.
- By conventional AGI definitions (autoformalization, reliable coding, and eight other benchmarks), Astra falls short and performs comparably to competitors like Claude 3.5.
- Declaring victory without rigorous measurement undermines the credibility of the AGI debate and muddies legitimate scientific discourse.
Executive Briefing: How to Check Work You Didn't Watch Get Made
Nate from Nateâs Substack
- Self-directed AI agents now complete complex multi-day tasks with minimal human oversight, shifting work from execution management to goal-setting and result validation.
- Middle-management layers in organizations become obsolete as agents handle hundreds of intermediate decisions autonomously, compressing organizational structure.
- Users bear legal liability for agent decisions made on their behalf, with existing delegated authority law now applying to AI systems.
- The skill of checking unseen workâvalidating agent outputs before deliveryâbecomes the critical remaining human function.
33 questions executives ask about AI
Khe Hy
- OpenAI launched Astra AI system, prompting renewed executive questions about AI implementation, trust, and deployment strategies.
- AI consultancies compile common executive concerns: from capability assessment to security and ROI measurement for AI initiatives.
- Vertical AI software (demonstrated by Harvey in legal tech) is emerging as a viable business model built on open-source model foundations.
- Key distinctions between ChatGPT Work, local vs. cloud deployment, and virtual machine architectures shape enterprise AI adoption decisions.