★ Priority · 15
TGIF: I Am the Most Famous and Talked-About Person in the Country
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Anthony Fauci kept a personal journal documenting his celebrity interactions and glowing media coverage, released by Senator Rand Paul.
- The diary reveals a pattern of self-congratulation and careful logging of praise, presented as an 'Excel spreadsheet of compliments' to himself.
- Article uses satirical tone to critique Fauci's apparent narcissism and media celebration during his tenure.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Situational Awareness fund, started by former OpenAI researcher with no prior investment experience, collapsed after carrying 4x leverage and suffering $30B estimated losses.
- Fund held concentrated long positions in memory stocks and shorts in software that moved against it simultaneously, triggering margin calls from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America.
- Liquidation of $45B peak AUM fund to Citadel exemplifies risks of leverage during market downturns and concentrated bets on single sectors.
Sophie Cunninghamās Common Sense
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Sophie Cunningham critiques political ideological pressure to accept falsehoods, citing 1984 as cautionary tale about forced conformity.
- Tribal belonging and fear of social consequences create appearance of consensus even when underlying reality contradicts the consensus narrative.
- Forced conformity campaigns to falsehoods are inherently temporary and eventually collapse under weight of obvious reality.
BoJ gets FX vol off the sideline and into the game, + Oil, Warsh, and Important Credit Comment
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- Bank of Japan intervened in FX markets with a 'Price Keeping Operation' to support the yen after the US open, coordinating around Fed rate guidance.
- Risk assets bounced on the intervention, though a major momentum fund unwound significant positions, illustrating the power and fragility of factor-driven trading.
- Large positions are being liquidated through single enormous trades, suggesting forced liquidations amid major momentum factor unwinding.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Fed acknowledged to be in 'performance business' rather than focused on genuine economic management.
- Author expresses skepticism about Fed credibility and market-focused decision making.
- Commentary reflects broader market sentiment about central bank opacity and policy decisions.
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks...
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- High-profile AI fund manager Leopold Schnitzelburger's Situational Awareness fund suffered heavy losses using leverage during AI market rout.
- South Korean retail investors experienced significant margin calls, highlighting risks of leveraged positions in recent market volatility.
- Nasdaq down 12% since author's prior 'Buffett Meme Top' call, suggesting broader momentum reversal in growth/tech stocks.
SHOULD YOU SHORT MEMORY STOCKS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GS High Beta Momentum Index has fallen 43% in just over a month, the worst performance since 2008.
- Author highlights challenges of short selling momentum stocks, noting unpredictable squeezes and timing risks.
- Cyclical shorts work best when fundamentals breakdown after a long uptrend, rather than momentum reversals alone.
a talk I gave at a quant bootcamp
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Korean KOSPI momentum has crashed 23% below its 200-day moving average from +40% above in mid-June, historically pointing to imminent bounce.
- Semiconductor and memory stocks appear near tactical bottoms after oversold RSI readings, suggesting setup for August recovery.
- Long/short momentum indicators have rarely spent extended time more than -20% below their 200-day average in 25 years, suggesting mean reversion pressure.
- Technical setup in semis/memory sector appears constructive for near-term trading opportunity.
The Limits of āAnti-Woke.ā Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Anti-woke platforms like GiveSendGo are enabling crowdfunding for controversial figures previously banned from mainstream platforms, creating alternative support structures.
- A Cornell student who expressed anti-Semitic views was doxxed but then amplified through mainstream media and raised $25K+ via alternative crowdfunding.
- The case illustrates how attempts to cancel controversial figures can inadvertently elevate them and create martyrdom narratives.
- GiveSendGo has become a haven for Kyle Rittenhouse, Daniel Penny, and similar figures, suggesting a fragmentation of digital public spaces.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Gold miners showing bullish reversal patterns post-Fed with potential for full position replacement if momentum holds through market close.
- Semiconductor index (SMH) displaying bullish hammer setup warranting 15% initiation with multi-week rally target pending close confirmation.
- China equities present textbook buy opportunity with higher lows and rally continuation patterns, particularly TCEHY positioning for strong breakout.
Why Mamdani Is Asking My Mom to Pay His Pied-Ć -Terre Tax
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- New York City's pied-Ć -terre tax approved in May imposes 0.8-6.5% additional annual property tax on high-end apartments and townhouses owned by non-primary NYC residents.
- The author's 81-year-old mother was incorrectly charged $55,048 despite living in her Midtown Manhattan townhouse since 1996, raising implementation issues with the tax.
- The tax reflects Mayor Zohran Mamdani's 'tax the rich' agenda but appears poorly executed with apparent errors in identifying which properties qualify.
HYPERSCALER COST OF CAPITAL IS RISING - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Hyperscaler credit default swaps are rising across major tech companies, signaling deteriorating credit conditions driven by soaring debt levels.
- Major tech firms dramatically increased leverage: Google from $25bn to $118bn debt in two years, Meta from $40bn to $87bn this year, Microsoft to $125bn.
- Rising CDS contrasts sharply with equal-weighted S&P 500 at all-time highs and high-yield bonds declining, suggesting potential disconnect between equity valuations and credit stress.
The Generosity of Love
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author reflects on her Jewish identity and capacity for unconditional love despite personal betrayals and witnessing trauma of October 7 and Israeli communities.
- She describes maintaining love for both Jewish and non-Jewish communities despite extreme distance and suffering caused by conflict.
- Essay explores spiritual and cultural dimensions of Jewish identity as foundation for resilience, forgiveness, and refusal to abandon others.
"best faculties of a mature human being exist in the child"
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Author reflects on a viral tweet comparing childhood neurochemical peaks (pure presence, no past/future) to adult life, clarifying the tweet wasn't claiming 13 is life's ultimate peak.
- Argues that children's abundance of 'default present' moments has irreplaceable value precisely because they become scarcer with age, not because childhood is superior.
- Connects childhood presence to broader philosophical questions about how forced early maturation steals the natural luxury of extended innocence and aliveness.
Markets · 16
Situational Awareness Puts in the Bottom
Andrew Sarna
- Situational Awareness hedge fund liquidated its entire AI and semiconductor portfolio to Citadel after margin calls, highlighting risks of concentrated leverage in the AI trade.
- Market pressure on hyperscalers' capital spending: Meta fell on aggressive capex plans while Microsoft surged after reducing fiscal 2026 capex guidance to $175B.
- Equal-weighted S&P 500 shows reasonable valuations beneath the surface, with majority of companies trading below 20x earnings despite broader index volatility.
Robinhoodās Q2 2026: a 44% EPS beat, a $106M gain thatās already gone & why HOOD stock fell anyway š¹š; Revolut oā¦
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Robinhood delivered a 44% EPS beat in Q2 2026 but stock fell anyway, driven by a $106M gain that disappeared before the earnings call.
- Revolut opened private market access to 75 million users with awkward timing following an OpenAI partnership deal.
- Analysis of why strong financial performance failed to support stock price, examining disconnect between earnings beats and market reaction.
Markets' Month End Bounce & Football Fight Exposes Europe's Anticapitalist Instincts
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- South Korea's Kospi fell 17% in three days then rose 17% in one session, signaling a dysfunctional market driven by leverage unwinding and repricing rather than fundamental analysis.
- Major Asian chip rallies (SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26%) were aided by buyback support and reflect liquidity-driven bounces rather than sustained recovery.
- Apple's modest 6% decline despite strong iPhone (21.7%) and Mac (28.7%) sales reveals true signal: supply constraints in advanced chipmaking, not demand weakness.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Situational Awareness LP peaked at $45B AUM with 439% net returns through June 2026 but was decimated in July by concentrated 4x leverage on AI and semiconductor longs.
- Core holdings fell 35-47% in July, wiping out equity cushion; simultaneous underperformance of software shorts (Adobe included) eliminated hedges and triggered margin calls.
- Block trade liquidation to Citadel Securities marks end of leverage-driven AI hedge fund era and serves as cautionary tale on concentrated exposure and borrowed capital.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Cargill registered 500 soybean oil, bringing total to 1,055; multi-decade ADM capacity expansions signal sustained RVO expectations.
- Wheat spiked on Russian port strikes but retraced; copper remains in wait-and-see mode amid broader market dynamics.
- Author maintains conviction on RVO viability despite earlier two-month bearish period during anticipatory phase.
The Japan Intervention... (A Rant)
Garrett Baldwin
- Japan intervened in FX market buying yen/selling dollars as currency weakened to 40-year lows versus USD.
- Yen bounced to strongest levels since 2022 after tagging 164/USD, triggering intervention below prior 160/USD threshold.
- Intervention coincided with semiconductor oversold RSI/MFI conditions, raising questions about coordinated policy signaling.
JETBLUE LEFT TAIL
The Oracle by Polymarket
- JetBlue faces potential bankruptcy event with Polymarket institutional desk facilitating block trades on both U.S. and international exchanges.
- Airline industry structurally challenged with thin margins, high fixed costs, and volatile variable costs, producing ~160 bankruptcies since 1970s.
- Business model dependent on scale makes consolidation inevitable as industry cannibalizes itself through acquisitions seeking efficiency gains.
Mark Zuckerberg's Empire Is Now Crumbling
Ted Gioia
- Meta's stock has declined ~$250/share since Gioia's prior warning, representing a $500 billion loss in market value.
- Facebook and Instagram daily active users declined for the first time ever, threatening the social business that funds Meta's other ventures.
- Zuckerberg's plan to sell excess AI computing capacity contradicts his massive data center spending, signaling potential operational inefficiency.
- Recent earnings fell far below estimates with weak free cash flow, indicating deteriorating financial performance.
Big Tech, Adding It Up: The Trillion That Was Never Hidden
Cape Fear Advisors
- Big Tech's off-balance-sheet obligations (~$1.65 trillion) are disclosed in filings but mislabeled as 'hidden' when they are actually transparent.
- The labeling of disclosed debt as 'hidden' disarms readers by teaching them that disclosure equals concealment, undermining regulatory transparency.
- Nikkei Asia's underlying investigation and aggregation of company-by-company lease schedules was rigorous; the error lies in how the findings were framed and communicated.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Author expresses concern about market dynamics despite not believing the bull market is over, noting dangerously low pricing of tail risks.
- Lam Research shows strong AI fundamentals with 30% revenue growth and 52% gross margins, validating semiconductor upside.
- Mixed earnings from major tech names (Microsoft, Meta, Tenable, Teladoc) reflect broader uncertainty about market direction.
- Structural concerns around private credit, insurance risks, and geopolitical tensions (Iran, yields) add to market fragility.
Long Bonds Puke and More Selling
Andrew Sarna
- 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.23%, highest since 2007, signaling potential end to 40-year falling interest rate cycle.
- Significant divergence between high-beta stocks (down 25%+) and equal-weight S&P 500 reflects retail/hedge fund positioning unwinding.
- Goldman Sachs reported 3.5 standard deviation de-grossing event and largest three-day tech sector long selling since 2016 tracking began.
- Momentum indicators crashed 35% while SPY remains only 3% below all-time highs, revealing structural market fragility beneath headline indices.
Chart of the Week - Leveraged ETF Trading
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Leveraged ETF long-to-short ratio has surged to levels last seen during 2021 stimulus frenzy, signaling excessive bullish positioning.
- Historical data shows this indicator flags short-term market peaks more reliably during corrections and bottoms during downturns.
- Current topping signal adds to growing list of bearish indicators, shifting burden of proof to bulls to justify further upside.
- Sentiment data suggests desperation to get rich quickly, typical of market exhaustion ahead of pullbacks.
Will Warsh Crash The Stock Market?
Capital Flows
- S&P 500 down ~4% from all-time highs with NASDAQ down 12%, driven by two clear macroeconomic factors putting downward pressure on equities.
- Macro liquidity and cross-border flows are primary drivers of market moves; tracking these is critical for portfolio management.
- Current selling pressure signals when portfolio risk will materialize; understanding flow dynamics is essential to avoid being sidelined.
Information Timing and Release: The Gaming of Guidance!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- SEC proposal to reduce reporting from quarterly to semi-annual and Fed Chair Warsh's push for less forward guidance both reduce information frequency to markets.
- Author's 1984 doctoral research examined how information release frequency affects volatility and stock price jumps, directly relevant to current policy debates.
- Both initiatives could increase market uncertainty and volatility by creating longer information gaps and reducing predictability of policy moves.
You might soon be able to buy futures and options on your favorite sports team
Bob Pisani
- CME planning to launch futures and options contracts on FutureSports Performance Indexes (FSPI) tied to team and player performance statistics.
- FSPI indexes convert official league statistics into rules-based benchmarks starting at base value of 7,500, moving real-time with game results.
- New financial products enable sports betting and speculation on athlete/team performance with same derivatives infrastructure as equity markets.
Live Discussion on the Fed at 2 pm
Garrett Baldwin
- Markets experiencing renewed pressure from multiple headwinds including Iran tensions, AI trade weakness, rising rates, and Fed policy uncertainty.
- Live discussion scheduled with Mark Sebastian at 2 PM to analyze Fed statement, Kevin Warsh conference implications, and upcoming earnings reports.
- Current market environment characterized by rotating sectors and geopolitical sensitivity requiring real-time analysis.
Culture · 14
A ship called Dignity
Roger Mitchell from As In The Lake
- Football industry's pivot toward treating sport as a pure asset class has inevitable consequences, with private equity disruption following similar patterns as American pro sports.
- Author critiques industry leaders for celebrating commercial success while feigning shock at the natural progression of financialization.
- Argues that untethered capitalism applied to football, like with NCAA disruption, creates unsustainable market pressures that ultimately harm the sport's integrity.
Akhenaten's hips, the dawn of the ... post-oral society !?, medieval people loved their children, the wisdom of Diā¦
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Society may be becoming 'post-oral' as research shows people are speaking fewer words daily, declining across US, Mexico, Australia, and Europe.
- Author explores paradox of returning to oral culture post-literacy while simultaneously reducing actual verbal communication.
- Analyzes implications of declining speech for culture and politics in context of broader post-literate society trends.
In praise of the Midwest
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Midwest offers underrated quality of life with relaxed contentment and functional American Dream for broad demographics.
- Michigan City provides affordable recreationā$25 beers, multiple dive bars and craft beer venues, scenic forest/beach access.
- Region represents overlooked geographic alternative to coastal concentration, particularly post-rough decade recovery.
How to Substitute Cilantro
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Scallions plus lemon/lime zest is an effective substitute for cilantro, matching its pungent, citrusy, and crunchy qualities.
- Successful ingredient substitution requires understanding the flavor and texture profile rather than finding another ingredient with the same controversial taste.
- Using zest instead of juice preserves the dry texture of cilantro and prevents unintended liquid addition to dishes.
Privilege isn't recognized here
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Human fairness instinct drives rejection of unfair allocations even at personal cost, as demonstrated by ultimatum game experiments.
- Society maintains norms through punishment of exploitative behavior, which extends beyond immediate rational calculation.
- Sense of fair play is fundamental to competitive interactions across sports, markets, and other domains, not merely a learned behavior.
Myth vs. Science: What Really Relieves Body Tightness
Zenith Within by Dr.Ā Sara Redondo
- Fascia (connective tissue) functions like the wood in a violināits condition matters as much as muscle tone for mobility and function.
- Myths about stretching and foam rolling reversing tightness are overstated; scientific evidence supports some benefits but not the confident claims.
- Body tightness is often a diffuse, structural problem in connective tissue rather than localized muscle soreness.
- Post-menopausal changes in fascia are real but more nuanced than popular health narratives suggest.
Your belly fat isn't a willpower problem
Parent Fit Club
- Stubborn belly fat is primarily a cortisol/stress hormone problem, not a simple calorie or willpower deficit.
- Conventional approaches of eating less and training harder often worsen cortisol elevation, preventing fat loss in the midsection.
- Effective interventions focus on diet quality changes and reduced training volume rather than caloric restriction and excessive exercise.
- Chronic wired exhaustion (11pm buzzing, 3pm crashes) indicates cortisol dysregulation driving metabolic dysfunction.
The Beheading of Books and the Humanitarian Problem
Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast
- LLM builders are physically destroying rare and out-of-print books using hydraulic cutters to digitize content faster, leaving mutilated paper carcasses.
- Digitizing books without preserving physical copies represents centralized control rather than true preservation, eliminating decentralized offline data backup.
- Physical books on paper provide un-hackable, decentralized storage of human knowledge independent of digital systems and vulnerabilities.
No, Then Yes
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Author was invited to speak and DJ at a financial conference but organizers ghosted after initial equipment discussions without explanation or closure.
- Rejection without explicit communication is worse than upfront rejection; author would have preferred clear communication of direction changes.
- Author philosophically accepts outcomes but expresses frustration with lack of professional courtesy and direct communication from conference organizers.
The $12 Cup of Nothing
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Consumers repeatedly fall for luxury branding experiments, praising tap water as premium 'water experience' and inexpensive Payless shoes as high-end Italian goods.
- Perception of quality and value strongly influenced by context, pricing, and branding language rather than actual product merit.
- Pattern repeats across decades showing consistent human susceptibility to aspirational marketing and luxury signaling over objective product evaluation.
Our Civic Martyrs Deserve to Be Remembered
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Fr. Jacques Hamel's murder ten years ago represents systemic Islamist violence that the West increasingly treats as isolated incidents rather than ideological attacks.
- The Catholic Church's mechanism for remembering martyrs through beatification contrasts sharply with the West's collective amnesia about victims of terrorism.
- Civilizations that cannot remember those who died defending their values gradually lose the confidence to defend either those values or cultural inheritance.
Roman Holiday
Primal Gourmet
- Rome offers exceptional culinary experiences but requires careful restaurant selection to avoid overhyped tourist traps.
- A three-day itinerary covering lodging and food venues provides practical guidance for visitors.
- The author provides curated recommendations with a Google Map of tested locations to maximize dining quality.
This Israeli Doctor Flew All Night to Rwanda to Save a Babyās Life
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- A Rwandan pediatric cardiologist's uncle's work as a nurse inspired his lifelong commitment to medicine and saving children's lives.
- The doctor pursued an unlikely path through medical school and specialized training to become a pediatric cardiologist.
- An Israeli doctor's emergency intervention demonstrates international medical collaboration to save critically ill patients.
Kitchen Scraps: Sad Kitchens and Fake Barbecue News
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Author interviews cartoonist Roz Chast about her illustrated book 'The Two Saddest Kitchens,' featuring humorous commentary on unreliable stovetop burners requiring elaborate rituals to function.
- Kimball shares personal preferences for cutting boards, advocating for the Hasegawa Wood Core Soft Rubber model despite its premium price over alternatives with durability and knife-friendly properties.
- Post combines food/kitchen culture commentary with product recommendations and upcoming Milk Street Radio interview promotion featuring Chast.
Politics · 11
Geopolitical Checkers
PAIDDoomberg
- Western political leaders are playing geopolitical 'checkers' rather than chess, failing to consider opponent responses to their strategic moves.
- The article criticizes Washington, London, and Brussels for dismissing concerns about escalation risks as 'panic' rather than genuine strategic calculation.
- Argues that ignoring how adversaries will respond to aggressive moves is a fundamental failure of strategic thinking in current geopolitical climate.
Paris Was Trashed After Winning A Championship. Madrid Wasn't. And The Difference Is Immigration.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Spain's World Cup victory celebration involved 2 million people with only 7 arrests and no serious incidents, contrasting sharply with Paris's Champions League riots.
- Paris experienced 890 arrests, 219 injuries, and looted stores following PSG's Champions League win, prompting massive police deployment.
- The author attributes the different outcomes to immigration-related social cohesion differences between the two countries.
Anthony Fauci Owes Americans the Truth
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Dr. Anthony Fauci invoked Fifth Amendment 111 times before Senate subcommittee rather than answering questions about pandemic policies.
- Author argues Fauci drove inhumane policies including business closures, school disruptions, and restrictions on family access to dying relatives.
- Silence on self-incrimination grounds suggests Fauci could face criminal charges if forced to explain his actions.
How the WHO used Hollywood in their COVID Cover-Up
PAIDWinston Marshall
- WHO coordinated centralized campaign of celebrity publicity and positive media coverage during COVID, not organic grassroots movement.
- Late-night shows and mainstream media parroted CDC and WHO messaging in coordinated effort rather than independent journalism.
- Author, formerly behind-the-scenes during pandemic, reveals deliberate high-profile campaign designed to win favor for health organizations.
Boy George Sings: "You Say Genocide, I Say War"
John Aziz
- Boy George released song 'We Will Dance Again' commemorating Nova festival victims and triggered accusations of being pro-war and denying genocide.
- Author argues that remembering October 7, supporting Israel, and recognizing Gaza conflict as war are not inherently contradictory positions.
- Piece examines how ideological conformity pressures can override factual reality, drawing parallels to Orwell's 1984.
How to Undermine Religious Freedom While Singing Its Praises
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali challenges progressive organizations for undermining religious freedom while claiming to champion it against Trump's Religious Liberty Commission.
- Center for American Progress coalition agrees on laudable First Amendment principles but directs hostility at conservative religious freedom implementation efforts.
- Core disagreement centers on whether good-faith religious liberty safeguards align with or contradict constitutional protections.
China Deepens Military Support for Iran
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- China is reportedly supplying Iran with 300-400 advanced shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, marking a shift toward visible military transfers during active conflict.
- This represents a departure from Beijing's historical preference for quiet, gradual military support, signaling a more direct geopolitical challenge to the US.
- The weapons could restore Iran's air defenses during ongoing combat and threaten regional commercial aviation and US logistics networks in the Middle East.
The End of the American Empire? Why the Iran War Is Slipping Beyond Washingtonās Control
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Iran conflict is widening beyond U.S. control as Saudi Arabia, Houthis, and Ukraine independently escalate operations.
- Three decades of U.S. military dominance assumptionsāforward bases, air superiority, precision strikes, tech advantageāare being tested and proving insufficient.
- Regional actors are increasingly shaping events independently rather than responding to Washington's strategy, fundamentally changing power dynamics.
- The conflict now represents a strategic problem where no single government, including the U.S., can easily control escalation.
Suddenly, Jews Are To Blame For Climate Change?
John Aziz
- Viral social media posts falsely blame Israel and Jews for climate change, echoing medieval antisemitic tropes in modern form.
- Claims that Israeli-funded data centers and nuclear programs cause climate change are factually incorrect; nuclear energy is carbon-neutral and data centers' emissions are comparable to other economic activity.
- Increasingly absurd conspiracy theories are spreading on social media, blending anti-Israel sentiment with climate panic and historical antisemitic narratives.
Oz Party Pulls Back The Curtain On ZIONISM & PALESTINIANISM š®š± DR. EINAT WILF
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Dr. Einat Wilf discusses her Oz Party's centrist vision for Israel that transcends traditional left-right political divides.
- The conversation explores Wilf's understanding of both Zionism and Palestinianism as complementary frameworks for a two-state solution.
- Wilf's background as a former Knesset member and security expert informs her platform to restore confidence in the Jewish State.
The LatAm Decade Ahead
Nico from AiQ
- Latin America investing requires deep political analysis as asset performance is heavily influenced by local elections (e.g., Argentine equities before/after Milei, Brazilian right-wing victories).
- Author draws parallels between U.S. political trajectory and Latin American populism patterns, suggesting LatAm offers a decade-long investment thesis and governance playbook.
- Actionable allocations and lifestyle positioning in LatAm depend on understanding how Trump tariffs, political scandals, and regional dynamics affect purchasing power and asset valuations.
Macro · 11
Midweek Macro Note: The Dead Cat Dragon...?, a JPY Puck Save, BoJ Decision
MacroEdge Research
- KOSPI and Nikkei rallied sharply off oversold conditions, driven by short squeezes and South Korea's $14bn sovereign wealth fund injection into AI and tech.
- Technical patterns suggest classic countertrend rally characteristics similar to 2000/2022, requiring Nasdaq to break its parabolic rounding top for confirmation.
- Bank of Japan rate decision pending; oil/gas markets showing stabilization signals via UKMTO activity.
The Family Fight
Peruvian Bull
- Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike, marking the first hawkish dissent under Powell.
- Kevin Warsh maintained the line against rate hike dissenters, positioning himself as a Volcker-style inflation fighter rather than a politically aligned successor.
- The shift from dovish to hawkish dissent signals a fundamental change in Fed policy dynamics and internal debate.
July 2026 - A turning point in the AI supercycle
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Author identifies July 2026 as a turning point comparable to March 2000, March 2008, and January 2020 market inflections.
- AI bull market appears over due to convergence of AI developments, Iran conflict, and Fed policy creating stagflationary pressures.
- Without AI as growth driver, broader equities bull market has weak fundamental foundation and faces increased turbulence ahead.
Japan & India: The China Variable
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Japan and India partnership offers synergies between abundant capital and labor, manufacturing expertise and software skills without historical grievances.
- China's strategic positioning as the 'China Variable' shapes both Japan-India ambitions and broader Asian geopolitical dynamics.
- The India-Japan relationship is historically unique with 1,400 years of contact and no major enmities, providing rare partnership potential.
Real yields should be higher
Macro Is Dead
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's communication strategy intentionally removes forward guidance, reducing communication needs and market clarity.
- Warsh reinforced the Fed's commitment to 2% inflation targets despite market skepticism about central bank tolerance for higher inflation.
- The Fed's 'revealed preference' messaging aims to reset market expectations but lacks the hawkish credibility needed for conviction.
Quiet Kev Allows Markets to Speak
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Kevin Warsh's 'quiet Fed' strategy relies on markets to set policy through price discovery, but markets rejected this approach with a 19-year high in 30-year yields.
- Market response included rising long yields, falling dollar, equity weakness, and rising inflation expectationsāsignaling lack of confidence in Warsh's approach.
- Rare dissent from three FOMC voting members suggests internal doubt about the Fed's credibility in delivering promised inflation targets.
The Importance of Being Obsolencent
Craig Tindale
- Mainstream economists misapply post-2008 market-centric paradigm to China's state-directed competition model based on fundamentally different assumptions.
- China operates on a paradigm where production is power, technological capability is sovereignty, and market access is conditionalānot separate commercial and state domains.
- Western economists categorize Chinese strategic scale and industrial policy as market distortions, failing to recognize a fundamentally different economic system.
The 30-Year TIPS Hits 3%. And They're Still "Printing Money."
Garrett Baldwin
- 30-year TIPS yield broke toward 3%, signaling investors demand 3% real returns above inflation expectations.
- Fed held rates steady but bond market tightened independently with 10-year yields pushing to 4.68%, approaching dangerous 4.75% threshold for equities.
- Author identifies recurring 2:35 PM market pattern tied to Fed communications, with subsequent volatility in final trading hour.
The Bond Bear Market Isn't Over
Prometheus Research
- Monetary policy pressures persist despite stable FOMC stance; inflation removed from Fed objectives but labor markets remain tight.
- CPI nowcast rebounded to higher readings while labor market gauge inflects higher, creating hiking cycle pressure on policymakers.
- Bond bear market likely continues with negative returns for Treasuries unless significant growth shock from equity selloff or oil-driven demand destruction occurs.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Federal Reserve held rates unchanged despite 3 'Heartland Hawks' voting to raise, citing bond market tightening as doing the Fed's work.
- After FOMC presser, 10-year yield jumped to 4.7% and 30-year hit 5.22% (highest since 2007), with Dow posting biggest decline since April 2025.
- Chair Warsh's argument that market-driven tightening substitutes for Fed rate hikes appears unconvincing given subsequent market deterioration.
Warshing machine, Jelly on iPhone, Zuck's distractions
Gregory Marks from Gregoryās Substack
- Fed Chair Warsh differs from recent predecessors by adhering to the Fed's dual mandate rather than extending economic cycles through forward guidance.
- The Fed's contradictory positioningāclaiming not to predict while offering forward guidance that influences market-based measuresācreates circular feedback loops.
- Warsh's legacy will center on cleaning up monetary policy dysfunction accumulated under previous leadership that prioritized cyclical extension over mandate fulfillment.
Energy · 8
A plan for a new energy system
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- China's 2026-2030 Five Year Plan targets clean, low-carbon energy system with 25% non-fossil fuels by 2030 and 17% carbon intensity reduction.
- Plan emphasizes green hydrogen, ammonia, and ethanol alongside broader EROEI improvements for energy security.
- Framing reflects China's thermoeconomic state model with energy initiatives central to understanding strategic intent.
Cushing Is Approaching The Operational Floor
PAIDTracy (Chi) from Renegade Resources
- Cushing crude inventory at 18.6M barrels with weekly draws of 700-800K, approaching Renegade Resources' calculated 16M operational floor in 4-5 weeks.
- The 20M barrel threshold used as market placeholder is psychological, not mechanical, established during June-July price action when Cushing-WTI spread turned negative.
- EIA lacks empirical data on actual minimum working inventory levels; market pricing based on estimated floor rather than measured technical limit.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatile coking coal fell $1/t to $219/t FOB as oversupply pressures the market.
- Indian buyers remain well-covered with healthy inventories and monsoon-related steel demand weakness limiting purchases.
- Over 200,000 tonnes of unsold tier-one cargoes available, indicating continued seller pressure in seaborne coking coal.
The Four Seas Cataclysm: When the Worldās Arteries Burn and the Silence Screams Louder Than the Shocks
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Drone strikes on LNG liquefaction facilities and regasification ships near Suez Canal escalate regional crisis from Three Seas to Four Seas conflict.
- Global energy infrastructure now under direct military threat with conflict metastasizing beyond containment, upending traditional supply models.
- Western leadership remains largely silent and unmoved while China observes, creating dangerous vacuum as world's energy arteries face disruption.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-24-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- US crude inventories drew 7.2 MMB and sit 7% below seasonal average, approaching 2018 lows; SPR at 1983 levels continuing slow drawdown.
- Model-derived fair value for WTI estimated above $100/barrel despite spot trading at $84, suggesting significant undervaluation.
- Commercial crude imports remain low with Venezuela gains insufficient to offset OPEC declines; export volumes unlikely to fall further.
Three Great Oil Companies - and One That the Market Has Missed
Bison Insights
- Three Canadian oil producers (Tamarack Valley, Headwater Exploration, Cardinal Energy) have significantly outperformed through strong operational strategies like waterflooding and thermal development.
- A fourth Canadian oil company with comparable metrics, reserves, and strategies trades at a substantial discount despite producing more oil than two of the three peer companies.
- The discount appears disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting potential market mispricing driven by past governance concerns that may no longer be relevant.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Matt Warder added 60 basis points of BTU and 25 basis points of CNR to his positions on recent selloffs.
- Metallurgical coal prices have stabilized at expected $220 levels with no fundamental changes to the market.
- Sub-$10 METC pricing presents tempting but unexecuted opportunities in the current trading environment.
Tone-deaf
Irina Slav on energy
- FIFA plans to sell a 20% stake in a new commercial entity valued at $20bn, completing the transformation of sports into a packaged commercial product.
- Author criticizes FIFA's tone-deaf strategy of ignoring social media backlash and criticism following the controversial World Cup, then doubling down on commercialization.
- The broader pattern reflects widespread institutional tone-deafness that ignores public sentiment and abandons sport's intrinsic values in pursuit of profit.
AI · 7
The seven most shambolic things that happened in AI today.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's high-flying hedge fund Situational Awareness collapsed amid dramatic hubris and leverage.
- U.S. government released Africa map with every country mislabeled, traced to OpenAI-generated content.
- OpenAI slashed prices 80% under competitive pressure; Anthropic suffered cybersecurity breach; jailbreaking vulnerabilities continue escalating.
Intelligence is Not The Bottleneck
Taylor Pearson
- Intelligence alone is not the bottleneck in business success; implementation and escaping old mental models are critical constraints.
- AI implementation for executive recruiting firm shows value in streamlining fulfillment and scaling client capacity per employee.
- Author developing framework for 'AI Business Brain' to help executives operationalize AI tools beyond pure intelligence gains.
Cowork comes to the Cloud
Khe Hy
- Claude's desktop Cowork feature lacks cloud access, trapping sessions and artifacts locally and limiting flexibility for remote work.
- AI tool evolution progressed from search (MapQuest era) to chat Q&A (Google Maps era) to collaborative coding and multi-step workflows (Cowork/Code era).
- Moving Cowork to the cloud would align AI tooling with how modern knowledge work operates across devices and locations.
Model Behavior: Taylor Lorenz
Substack
- Substack launches 'Model Behavior' series featuring interviews with prominent creators about their use of AI tools and impact on creative work.
- Taylor Lorenz discusses self-censoring her writing style to avoid appearing AI-generated while defending authentic phrases like 'deeply human' that she uses regularly.
- Series will examine spectrum from AI purists to power users, exploring prompts, workflows, and identity concerns as norms around AI use and disclosure evolve.
Dario takes it on the chin
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei faced industry backlash after resisting open-weight AI model advocacy while the company has been bulk-destroying rare books for training distillation.
- Most of the AI industry signed a letter supporting open-weight model accessibility, while Amodei issued a statement calling for locking down competitor distillationāseen as hypocritical and tone-deaf.
- Amodei's recent stance has dissipated goodwill he accumulated from previous principled positions, marking a significant reputational shift within the AI community.
The Benchmark You Already Own (095)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- New AI model failed to properly remove a hardcoded password, relocating it from a direct assignment to a CLI flag defaultāstill exposed and now accessible via help text.
- Incident exemplifies precise security failure mechanism rather than a messy error: the model completed the literal task while preserving and adding exposure paths.
- Author positions this failure as an instructive instrument for understanding AI model limitations in security-critical contexts.
I Built The Token Saver Skill To Cut My Token Use By 90%. Here Is What It Can And Cannot Do For You.
Nate from Nateās Substack
- Author reduced token consumption in AI tools by building a 'Token Saver Skill' to address rapid meter acceleration after repeated queries.
- Analyzed 3.77 billion tokens used across 143 Codex threads, finding 95.73% were reused input tokens requiring investigation beyond raw totals.
- Discusses the tradeoff between continuity costs (prior exchanges, instructions, files) and efficiency, as reused material may receive provider cache discounts but inflates apparent usage.