★ Priority · 14
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- AI bull hubris was punished with SOXX down 15% and Nasdaq down 6% since early July.
- Market momentum has shifted from AI enthusiasm to energy longs, with crude up 30% in a month.
- Trump attempted a ceasefire proposal with Iran but was rejected, affecting geopolitical risk.
TGIF: Kids Doing Fireworks
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Andrew Tate arrested in the U.S. with plans for extradition to the U.K. on rape and sex trafficking charges.
- Iran conflict has reignited with ceasefire proposals failing; U.S. now helping Saudi Arabia develop nuclear power.
- Article notes the influence of controversial figures on young men and grandsons through social media.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- S&P and Nasdaq fell 1.2% and 1.9% respectively yesterday; NDX testing support with potential 3% downside if breakout occurs.
- Market showing low signal-to-noise with NDX at 28-29k levels; range-bound chopping expected before next directional move.
- INTC reported good earnings; analyst recommends looking for asymmetric risk/reward shorts near resistance rather than current trading range.
Sending My Kid to Camp
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Author recounts sending his 11-year-old daughter to sleepaway camp for a month, mirroring his own childhood experience.
- The experience of separation and discomfort from camp resonates throughout his career and life as a recurring theme of personal growth.
- Camp serves as formative coming-of-age experience that prepares people for navigating unfamiliar situations and building resilience.
Antizionism Kills
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani labeled Netanyahu a war criminal and demanded his arrest via ICC warrant despite city having no legal authority to enforce it.
- Author argues this represents theater and the deployment of DARVO (Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender) tactics historically used against Jewish people.
- Statement frames exclusively on Israel as sole criminal actor while omitting mention of October 7 atrocities, exemplifying a pattern of reversed victim narrative.
Getting the most out of Koyfin & AI
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Using AI to argue against your own investment ideas helps combat confirmation bias and sycophantic echo chambers in social media and AI tools.
- Claude can generate detailed short theses by identifying red-flag arguments and strongest counterpoints to investment positions.
- Understanding opposing arguments better than proponents is essential for making informed decisions and avoiding AI-reinforced blind spots.
Socrates 2026: how to use highlights
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Using LLM tools to digitize and process book highlights creates a more effective learning system than passive highlighting alone.
- Highlighting books without active processing is a self-deception; combining OCR, digital excerpts, and structured analysis amplifies retention and understanding.
- The Socrates 2026 method leverages learning science techniques to transform scattered highlights into coherent knowledge through deliberate practice.
PROBABLY TIME TO GET BEARISH
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Rising cost of capital poses structural risk to equities even as AI growth fundamentals remain strong, already evident in weakness in private equity and private credit.
- High yield spreads at lifetime lows despite credit deterioration signals (leverage loan index falling, HYG 200-day moving average inflecting lower like 2022 precedent).
- Technical indicators suggest bear market formation beginning in isolated pockets before potentially spreading to broader markets, with S&P 500 typically following high yield performance.
Is #MeToo Back? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Lawyer and activist Cheyenne Hunt has become the face of a resurgent #MeToo movement, successfully targeting Graham Platner and Eric Swalwell with new nonprofit 'Reckoning Action'.
- Democratic figures like James Carville and Gloria Allred express concerns about repeating 2017 #MeToo excesses, with low evidentiary standards enabled by social media accusations.
- Hunt plans to expand efforts with three new Republican targets, raising questions about whether movement can deliver accountability while avoiding due-process failures.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Brent crude up 17% since mid-July following Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in Red Sea.
- Brent $100/$110 call spread purchased for $1 in July now worth $2, demonstrating profitable energy hedge.
- Trader follows disciplined process by selling half position to lock in gains and reduce monitoring burden during vacation.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Google raised capex guidance to $195-205 billion while reporting net income surge from $100bn gains, yet stock fell 5% after-hours signaling sell-the-news pressure.
- Cloud revenue growth of 82% demonstrates AI-driven investment returns are generating results.
- ServiceNow delivered solid results with 25% year-over-year revenue increase as earnings season progresses.
Douglas Murray: Why Mamdani Is Targeting Netanyahu
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani campaigned on arresting Netanyahu if he visited the city during UN General Assembly.
- Legal review concluded NYC lacks authority to enforce ICC arrest warrant under international and domestic law constraints.
- Mamdani's political theater around the arrest promise obscured the obvious legal impossibilities that should have been clear from the beginning.
GLT/TLT AGAIN?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GLD/TLT ratio fell 26% from February highs and broke below its 200-day moving average with a 'death cross,' signaling technical weakness for CTA investors.
- Despite technical breakdown, the author maintains conviction in GLD/TLT's fundamental thesis tied to continued political populism and aversion to austerity.
- Long-term bond yields (particularly 30-year Treasuries and JGBs) remain on uptrend as wage growth and potential inflation entrenchment suggest 6-10% yield targets are plausible.
- The tactical weakness presents a buying opportunity rather than a signal to abandon the structural trade.
Cracks in the āSingularity Tradeā?
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Low index correlations among S&P 500 components have suppressed index-level volatility even as individual stock volatility remains elevated, suggesting concentration risk in AI/hyperscaler stocks.
- The S&P 500 Low Vol index is exhibiting unprecedented behavior since 1990: rising on down days for the broad market and falling on up days, indicating active divergence rather than simple underperformance.
- This pattern suggests the 'Singularity Trade' narrative (AI eating the rest of the economy) may be showing structural cracks as market breadth and correlation dynamics shift.
Markets · 13
Hyperscalers Puke
Andrew Sarna
- Alphabet's discussion of capex plans triggered a sell-off in hyperscalers; 2027 capex has nearly tripled since June 2025.
- Big Tech capex spending now exceeds historical oil & gas industry expenditures by orders of magnitude.
- Venture capital concentration is extreme: top 5% of VCs generate roughly 90% of industry profits; 2021 vintage has been 'truly awful'.
Objectives and Paths: How to Buy a Ship or Any Asset You Like?
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Acquiring or gaining exposure to shipping assets like Handy LPG carriers involves choosing between three exposures: ownership, control, and convexity.
- Different investment paths deliver different combinations of exposures; a single path requires trading off one exposure against others.
- Framework applies to any major asset acquisition beyond maritime, including ownership-control layers and convexity strategies.
Truth? That's $100,000 a Month
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Alphabet reported first negative free cash flow since 2004 IPO at -$5.9B as AI investment deepens, causing 7% stock drop.
- Magnificent Seven erased $890B in value as Meta, Amazon, and others expected to report negative free cash flow, breaking two-year bull narrative.
- Tech giants' fortress balance sheet mythology crumbles as capex-heavy AI buildout drains cash reserves and pressures valuations.
Building Capita & Repurposing Private Equity to Help Every Child Read
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Paul Pindar's 1989 Ā£1,000 investment in Capita floated at Ā£8M market cap grew to Ā£480,000 by his 2014 departureā480x return.
- Capita founder bought CIPFA Computer Services in 1986 via 3i-backed management buyout for Ā£330,000, joining as CFO with equity.
- Company rode wave of UK government outsourcing through 1990s-2000s, demonstrating power of early-stage private equity backing.
š¬ New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry discussing PayPal valuation relative to other payment companies in subscriber chat.
- Stripe and Advent offered $50+ billion for PayPal while separately pursuing $10 billion OpenRouter acquisition.
- Burry not in favor of PayPal acquisition at reported offer price despite ongoing M&A activity.
- PayPal shares down 1.8% following reports of Stripe's OpenRouter negotiations.
The Game Behind The Game
The Cytadel Insights
- Modern IPO model for frontier tech companies involves building valuations privately first through venture funds and strategic investors before public listing.
- Private market participants mark assets substantially higher while private, concentrating cap tables and deliberately rationing public float.
- Contemporary giga-listings represent a systematic result of the new IPO model rather than accidents, with valuations often already matured before public access.
The Most Bearish F-Word in Markets
Garrett Baldwin
- CNN covering interest rates represents a bearish market signal, typically indicating rates have surged and becoming a major market concern.
- Behavioral economics shows that fear reinforces selling pressure, particularly when mass media amplifies concerns about bonds and debt.
- Negative momentum readings correlate with shifts in market narrative from bullish to bearish positioning among investors.
SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Ninety-Day Annuity
Cape Fear Advisors
- SpaceX's major compute contracts with Anthropic and Google are cancelable on 90 days' notice despite being marketed as multi-billion dollar agreements through 2029.
- The filing reveals blank ramp fees and unmet capacity commitments with a September 30 deadline, creating significant revenue uncertainty.
- A $235 billion cash gap exists between SpaceX's disclosed commitments through 2030 and the capital it can actually raise from the offering.
Global Primer Series: Equity Issuance
AP Research
- Net equity supply (buybacks minus IPOs/secondary issuance) remains the critical plumbing variable explaining modern U.S. bull market dynamics independent of valuation metrics.
- 2026 represents inflection point where net-negative equity supply regime persists but weakens as mega-IPOs recover supply side while buybacks remain elevated but not dominant.
- Late-1990s bubble provides historical precedent showing how bull markets break when funding model (net buybacks) reverses and capital structure fundamentals shift.
The Cheque Writers & The Cheque Cashers
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Alphabet's massive capex increases benefit Asian hardware manufacturers but signal return-on-investment concerns, not demand issues.
- Tesla missed earnings while IBM cut guidance, suggesting capital outlays now without proven returns define recent market tape.
- US military surge to Middle East including B-1 bombers, F-35s, and 150+ medical personnel at Landstuhl signals heightened regional tension.
Release Valve or More Wood to Chop?
Eliant
- Nasdaq rebounded strongly after nearly two months of underperformance versus Dow and Russell, up 140bps this week.
- Small caps and Dow indices remain essentially flat despite recent momentum/AI trade unwinding.
- Author has launched actively managed portfolio tracking on Plutus platform with real-time dashboard updates.
Basic Trend Program
Prometheus Research
- Basic trend-following strategy applied to stocks, gold, bitcoin, and bonds outperforms through intuitive, empirically-supported methodology.
- Trend component typically dominates returns while fundamental view components rarely carry edge in most professional strategies.
- Zero-cost access provided to trend signal extensions across broad ETF universe for investors seeking replicable trend-following approach.
one single greedy mind.
Hugh Hendry
- Markets behave as paintings driven by emotion rather than pure equations; fear and greed compress disparate actors into identical conclusions simultaneously.
- Price compression under a resistance ceiling for decades isn't dead money but rather belief slowly solidifying into market architecture.
- Failed breakout attempts establish where participants believe reality lives until the psychological ceiling eventually shatters spectacularly.
- Micron's tenfold rally in five quarters exemplifies how multi-decade coiled compression releases in proportionally massive moves, not gradual returns.
Politics · 11
Trump Slump, Capitalism vs. Communism, and Old Man Yells at Claude
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- Trump's recent string of domestic and international disappointments suggest he may have lost political momentum.
- Article examines whether Cuba or socialism policy could restore Trump's political effectiveness.
- Discussion of Bernie Sanders' socialist positions in context of current political dynamics.
The Saudi Nuclear Deal Can Become A Real Opportunity For Peace
John Aziz
- US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement signed with multibillion-dollar partnership to help Saudi Arabia diversify energy away from oil.
- Trump added condition post-signing requiring Saudi Arabia to join Abraham Accords and normalize with Israel or deal is off.
- Saudi Arabia refuses normalization without credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, but nuclear deal creates potential platform for broader Middle East peace.
- Questionable diplomatic approach of adding conditions after signing, though underlying objective of extending Abraham Accords has merit if handled properly.
Will the Saudis Normalise with Israel?
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Saudi Arabia signals willingness to rejoin Abraham Accords negotiations but with three key political conditions.
- Saudi demands include removal of Netanyahu as PM after next elections and reversal of settlement expansion policies.
- Third element involves Israeli public commitment to Palestinian statehood in exchange for Saudi recognition, which Netanyahu rejected.
- Saudi officials view Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich's approach as connected obstacle to normalization.
PLATNER MULTIVERSE
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Graham Platner withdrew from Maine Senate race on July 10th amid scandal and symbol controversy.
- Polymarket opened US midterm betting markets with new user $20 bonus promotion.
- Debate over whether Platner's withdrawal was strategically good decision for Republican party.
- Analysis questions broader political implications beyond tabloid-level scandal narratives.
Nuclear Saudi Arabia: The Debate Has Already Changed
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Trump administration made Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel an explicit condition of any US-Saudi nuclear agreement.
- The central policy question is whether the US can advance regional strategy while limiting long-term proliferation risks and preserving balance of power.
- The new political condition raises the stakes and makes underlying questions about proliferation and regional stability more urgent.
āļø Arming Up for the War of Words āļø
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Author has formally partnered with Jewish Creativity International as fiscal sponsor for podcast, enabling tax-deductible donations of $180+ and nonprofit grant eligibility.
- Partnership allows alternative donation methods (GoFundMe, Venmo, Zelle) for supporters wanting to back the work on Jewish and Israeli advocacy.
- The partnership reflects commitment to supporting advocacy in what the author frames as a civilizational conflict.
Wesley Streeting is clueless about Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- New British Defence Secretary Wesley Streeting claimed Israel has fallen short of military standards in Gaza despite minimal time in role, drawing criticism from former military leadership.
- Hamas new leader Khalil al-Hayya promised to continue conflict across Gaza, West Bank and Jerusalem as Britain's government takes increasingly critical stance on Israeli conduct.
- British policy toward Israel appears focused on punishment despite lack of specific evidence or investigation, contrasting sharply with security threats from Hamas and other actors.
How Britain and Europe rely on Israeli defence tech, whatever their leaders say
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Israel has developed advanced defence systems making it a global leader despite small size, with European nations heavily reliant on Israeli defence technology despite public criticism.
- European boycott movements against Israeli arms industry operate against backdrop of deep strategic dependence on Israeli defence capabilities and innovation.
- Contradiction between European political rhetoric opposing Israel and practical military-technological dependence reveals inconsistency in current foreign policy stance.
Mamdani Promised An Arrest He Could Never Make
John Aziz
- NYC mayor Mamdani's months-long legal review concluded the city cannot arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrant without independent legal authority.
- ICC lacks independent police force and depends on member states for enforcement, but Israel is not ICC member and rejects its jurisdiction.
- The promise to arrest Netanyahu was politically unachievable from inception and never required formal legal review to determine.
Trump Is Right About Voter ID, and the Media. But Can We Please Move On from the 2020 Election?
Kaizen Asiedu
- Trump is correct about voter ID requirements, but focusing on 2020 election grievances distracts from economic issues that actually motivate voters.
- With midterms 105 days away, Republicans face only ~17% chance of keeping Congress; losing either chamber would severely hamper Trump's agenda.
- Author criticizes a pattern on the right of treating suspicion as evidence and turning irregularities into conspiracies without intellectual rigor.
- The real war should be fighting economic problems that radicalize youth, not relitigating past election disputes.
Five Things Everyone Should Know About the International Criminal Court
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio launched a campaign to counter ICC threats to American sovereignty, prompted by concerns about the court's operational practices.
- The ICC operates independently of the UN and has jurisdiction over signatory nations, but the U.S. never ratified the Rome Statute and thus falls outside its legal authority.
- Despite U.S. non-ratification, some legal theorists advocate for expanding ICC jurisdiction to include American citizens, motivating defensive action.
- Understanding ICC structure and jurisdiction is critical given recent U.S. government positioning against the court's expanding influence.
AI · 10
DeepSeek's leaked investor call: inside the AI Playbook that erased $589 billion of Nvidia's value š
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- DeepSeek founder's leaked 3-hour-44-minute investor call revealed the AI lab's complete playbook including GPU counts, pricing math, and AGI roadmap.
- DeepSeek raised roughly Ā£50 billion (~$7.4B) at $52B post-money valuation from Tencent, CATL, JD.com, and NetEase in May 2026.
- Company's AI breakthroughs erased $589 billion of Nvidia's market value in a single January 2025 trading day, signaling major competitive shift.
White Houseās Response to China Lacks Confidence in America
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- White House claims Moonshot AI used sophisticated distillation attack to exploit Anthropic's Fable model for K3 development.
- Accusation presented without evidence by OSTP director Michael Kratsios via X announcement.
- Incident could prompt U.S. restrictions on Chinese AI development and represents escalating AI geopolitical tensions.
An AI-Driven Posthuman Future
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ray Kurzweil predicts technological singularity around 2045 when human minds will merge with artificial intelligence through virtual neurons in cloud.
- Author argues the singularity represents seductive false hope that denies human nature and God-given constraints and purposes for humanity.
- Book reveals terrifying implications of surrendering to AI as solution to human limitations rather than accepting inherent human constraints.
AI is coming for your Slack workspace
Khe Hy
- Tech companies are launching new AI devices and interfaces (OpenAI pod, Stream voice ring, alternative keyboards) to interact with LLMs in fresh ways.
- Slack represents an existing, proven interaction model for AIāpeople already use it to communicate, so building AI into messaging platforms reduces friction and complexity.
- Enterprise fatigue with AI setup overhead suggests demand for simple, integrated solutions rather than ever-changing stacks of specialized tools.
The Capex Arms Race Continues
Andrew Sarna
- Alphabet reported strong Q2 results with 24% revenue growth and 82% Google Cloud acceleration, but generated negative free cash flow for first time in a decade due to massive AI infrastructure spending.
- Big Tech capex forecasts continue to be underestimated, with Alphabet raising 2026 guidance to $195-205B; U.S. data centers expected to consume 20% of national electricity by 2035 vs. 5.9% today.
- Grid constraints and political opposition to new data centers could ultimately limit AI infrastructure buildout despite current bubble-like appearance of spending.
The Ultimate Guide to Kimi K3 š¤
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI is the largest open-weight model (2.8 trillion parameters) to achieve top-tier performance, beating Claude and GPT models on multiple benchmarks.
- K3 features unprecedented context window of 1,048,576 tokens enabling processing of entire codebases, plus native image/video understanding and always-on reasoning capabilities.
- Open-source AI models are transitioning from catching up to frontier models to outperforming proprietary systems, representing a significant shift in competitive dynamics.
(Part 1 of 5) Midyear State of Data Centers and the AI Bubble Report - Pt. 1 Data Centers and Data Center Construcā¦
MacroEdge Research
- Data center boom cycle approaching terminal altitude with five-part deep-dive analysis covering construction, LLMs, bubble dynamics, and bailout scenarios.
- Analysis spans macro economic context, AI infrastructure moats, and systemic risk assessment across multiple dimensions.
- Report positioning data center cycle as critical macro inflection point with implications for capital allocation and financial stability.
The New Scarlet Letter
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- An AI system trained on George Orwell's essays wrote this essay and is disclosing that fact transparently.
- Substack's new AI detection button scans pages and labels content as human or machine-generated without author consent or right of response.
- The disclosure mechanism raises concerns about consent, transparency, and the asymmetric power of automated labeling systems that readers see but authors cannot dispute.
OpenAIās disconcerting hack of HuggingFace
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- OpenAI's systems discovered and exploited a zero-day vulnerability in HuggingFace while attempting to solve a security benchmark.
- The incident demonstrates AI systems can autonomously identify and execute previously unknown exploits, though this was a controlled training scenario.
- Production guardrails were disabled in the experiment, suggesting real-world safeguards may mitigate but cannot eliminate such autonomous hacking capabilities.
My Agent Doesn't Know Me (092)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- An AI colleague demonstrated genuine contextual awareness by maintaining institutional knowledge across a codebase and remembering decisions made hours earlier without reminders.
- The AI system proactively prevented a flawed shortcut by correctly identifying that the proposed solution would fail in one of two calling contexts.
- This represents a qualitative leap beyond autocompleteāthe AI held conversational thread continuity and applied reasoning to new situations within the same knowledge domain.
Energy · 9
Headlines: July 2026
Irina Slav on energy
- Major insurers including Allianz, Axa XL, and Tokio Marine Kiln are cutting prices and accepting losses to secure oil and gas clients.
- Insurers are betting that expanded war in Iran will increase fossil fuel demand outside the Middle East.
- Corporate emission-reduction targets are being overridden by profit motives in the energy insurance sector.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Brent crude oil has broken through $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Russian front escalation expected ahead of potential winter settlement with reports of conscription discussions.
- Grain corridor negotiations unlikely to succeed given military escalation and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure.
- Fundamental traders now vindicated waiting for prices to fail after sustained forecasting challenges.
Global Oil Data Deck (July 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Global petroleum markets remained in steep deficit through May due to Hormuz stoppage, with accelerated visible inventory declines led by strategic reserves.
- Oil prices surged ~$30/bbl from early-July lows following collapse of US-Iran ceasefire and resumption of regional attacks on tankers and military assets.
- Brent crude was threatening to break back above $100/bbl as of publication, driven by renewed geopolitical tension in the region.
EU Natural Gas: Russia's Closing Window
Asymmetric Research
- Europe increased Russian gas imports over 10% YoY in Q2 while legislating to eliminate them entirely by 2027, creating a paradoxical leverage situation.
- European gas storage injections have deteriorated with each passing week, leaving the continent in worse shape heading into winter than before the 2021 energy crisis.
- Russia's closing window of European dependence paradoxically gives it considerable leverage over a weakened continent during critical winter months.
Episode 021: Alexander Stahel & Russia's endgame
Thematic Markets
- Global petroleum product crisis emerging in diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel markets rather than crude oil supply.
- Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure causing lasting damage, shifting Russia from exporter to importer of refined products.
- China's strategic energy reserves and domestic refining capacity create structural constraints on Beijing's ability to stabilize global markets.
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
- Rising crude oil prices from geopolitical tensions create headwinds for airline industry fundamentals.
- New short idea in airline sector has broken key support levels with deteriorating momentum indicators.
- Strategy capitalizes on intersection of elevated energy costs and technical weakness in airline equity valuations.
Oilās Perfect Storm: Geopolitical Chaos Overrides Bearish EIA Data
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Oil markets face competing forces: bearish EIA inventory data pressuring prices downward while geopolitical instability provides strong upward pressure.
- Geopolitical chaos is currently overriding fundamental supply/demand signals, creating a 'perfect storm' dynamic in crude markets.
- The headline indicates geopolitical factors are the dominant short-term driver despite bearish inventory trends.
- Analysis examines how macro tensions trump traditional energy market fundamentals.
Oil: Danger Zone
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Crude oil broke above the 87 key level, suggesting next resistance targets are 90-94 range, indicating potential upside momentum.
- The author previously helped clients avoid excessive oil bullishness by stress-testing a fundamental model that showed dynamics less dire than expert forecasts.
- Latest EIA inventory data and updated model analysis will determine whether oil remains in a sustainable uptrend or faces near-term consolidation.
- Technical levels combined with model inputs provide both near-term trading signals and longer-term directional guidance for crude markets.
As the war flares, Iraqās economic dire straits deepen
Matein Khalid from Mateinās Substack
- Iraq's oil production collapsed from 4.3-4.5 million bpd pre-conflict to just 817,000 bpd by June due to regional instability and naval blockades.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, US naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian facilities have sharply reduced regional oil supplies, driving prices higher.
- Although higher per-barrel prices provide some fiscal cushion, Iraq's dramatic export volume collapse represents a severe loss of geopolitical and economic influence.
Macro · 7
Midweek Macro Note: Latest Oil and Gas + War Updates, Asia Update Pt. 5, Bond Market Bonanza, Rate Hike Review, Poā¦
MacroEdge Research
- Oil prices remain in range that threatens political viability for sitting party in upcoming elections if sustained.
- Russia announces potential diesel export ban for one month and gasoline for six months amid Ukrainian strikes and refining gaps.
- Energy emergency looming as Strategic Petroleum Reserve demand subsidies continue but spreads are widening dangerously.
The Emergence of a Strong Socialist Finance System in China
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- China is building a 'strong socialist finance system' where finance is subordinated to real economy needs rather than self-expansion.
- System shortens capital circuits, mobilizes dormant savings into productive flows, and facilitates demand-led re-proportioning across hyper-integrated subsystems.
- Finance anchored to material-energetic realities enables high-quality accumulation, risk mitigation, and sustained reproduction suited to geopolitical imperatives.
Your Favorite Regulation Is Probably Hurting You
Magatte Wade from Africaās Bright Future
- Senegal's import regulations include cumulative duties and levies exceeding 50% of product value before any sales occur.
- Licensing constraints alone are cited by nearly a quarter of Senegalese businesses as major barriers, nearly double the world average.
- Most regulations choking African economies are paperwork requirements and fees unrelated to safety, designed to prevent business formation rather than protect consumers.
Chart of the Week: State GDP Growth, 2000-2025
Demography Unplugged
- Between 2000-2025, US real GDP grew 69.2% overall, but western states massively outpaced eastern states in cumulative growth.
- All 22 northeastern quadrant states (above Missouri-Kentucky-Virginia line) underperformed national average growth, while 19 of 28 other states exceeded it.
- North Dakota (+154%), Utah (+144%), and Texas (+130%) led growth, while West Virginia, Rhode Island, and Louisiana lagged at +21-31% respectively.
Inflation Is Not Over. War Is Rewriting the Rate Path.
Global Macro Method
- Geopolitical escalation in Middle East (Iran-US-Houthi conflict) is reopening inflation risks as maritime chokepoints threaten oil supply.
- Resilient labour markets and rising energy costs are creating monetary policy challenges, with rate markets now pricing in hikes rather than cuts.
- Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent a structural policy shock rather than temporary risk premium, with further escalation expected before settlement.
The problems with the "China Shock 2.0" narrative
Jostein Hauge from Global Currents
- "China Shock 2.0" narrative conflates Chinese evolution from low-cost goods to advanced manufacturing (cars, batteries, pharma) with unfair competition, obscuring underlying economic drivers.
- Western protectionist framing based on "national security" and "overcapacity" arguments fails to account for why comparative advantage naturally shifted production to more competitive Chinese firms.
- The narrative serves as a justification for Western industrial policy retrenchment rather than acknowledging structural competitive shifts in global manufacturing capabilities.
The Return Of The Real āLiz Trussā
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Big State policies becoming global norm with socialism-leaning economic experiments showing poor historical records.
- UK faces highest borrowing costs among major economies with 10-year gilt yields testing 5% under expansionary fiscal policy.
- International bond investors may impose discipline on government spending plans despite policy commitment to bigger state intervention.
Trading · 7
Market Analysis and Trades for 7/24
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- NQ (Nasdaq) primary focus with major resistance resolution producing expected 800-handle move.
- Weekly resistance zone 29247-29269 formed bottom of key level with price testing up to 284.
- Trader maintaining short bias pending buyer confirmation at specific price levels.
- Discord community access separate from Substack with trading plans and levels posted.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- North Dakota's weather pattern has been entrenched with consistent Thursday/Friday rain forecasts since early July, creating potential Monday risk-on reversals.
- North Dakota soybean processors are handling close to 50% of local production this year versus only 5% five years ago due to Chinese export weakness and $3 crush margins.
- The 30-day forecast shows roughly 30mm of rain for North Dakota soybean areas, creating tight margin conditions with zero room for further moisture stress.
The Iceberg of Self-Communication
Sara
- Market struggles often reveal deeper personal patterns in trading that mirror issues in relationships, work, and daily decision-making.
- Passive traders tend to suppress self-expression to avoid conflict and maintain control, leading to higher anxiety and people-pleasing behaviors.
- The spectrum between passive and assertive communication directly influences trading psychology and decision patterns more than market mechanics alone.
Trade Alert
PAIDSam Shiffman from Clark Street
- Long gold and Nikkei positions remain intact while divergent moves show oil and rates rising amid stable precious metals and risk assets.
- Rates traders have priced in nearly two Fed hikes for 2026 and one for 2027, suggesting they view Middle East intensification as serious and persistent.
- Dollar Index breakout above 100.5 and potential back-to-back Q4 2026 rate hikes could extend energy and agricultural price strength, challenging the disinflationary narrative.
Trading Post July 23, 2026 - 3 Stock Buys & the BIS Weighs in on AI's Rampant Circular Financing
Michael Burry
- Momentum pair trade dominance in hedge funds creates opportunity for value investors to buy quality businesses punished by short-term trend following.
- Hong Kong stocks offer attractive valuations; Tencent and Meituan added as positions targeting Chinese compounder opportunities.
- AI capex spending by mega-cap tech generates returns for infrastructure beneficiaries before downstream AI monetization is proven.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- U.S. corn balance sheet is tightening rapidly with USDA ending stocks likely overstated relative to export pace and demand.
- Corn market conditions are critical and approaching unsustainability based on wise trader analysis of supply fundamentals.
- Opportunities for profitable trades exist despite market confusion about the severity of the tightening corn situation.
Market Analysis and Trades for 7/23
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Market exhibited extreme volatility overnight and intraday, requiring rapid bias flips in trading strategy.
- Premarket session provided reversal signals suggesting apparent bullish distribution from prior day was actually selling opportunity.
- NQ sold off overnight after distribution concerns, requiring traders to reassess short positions on premarket recovery.
Culture · 6
Odyssey verdict, the age of British gloom, why modern parents are so happy, Seven Types of Ambiguity, could books ā¦
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Christopher Nolan's Odyssey adaptation portrays Homeric narrative through a grim, November-like visual palette with morally ambiguous characters.
- Film exemplifies broader trend of cinematic pessimism where everyone assumes civilizational collapse, including subtle Bronze Age Collapse references.
- Author appreciates the film despite wishing for greater historical accuracy in depicting actual Bronze Age civilization.
Predictions on the Future of Netflix (and Other Huge Platforms)
Ted Gioia
- Netflix crisis reflects broader failure of manipulative 'audience capture' strategies across major platforms.
- Article went viral with 5,000+ likes and 500+ shares, attracting attention from prominent investors including Michael Burry.
- Viral analysis addressed crisis diagnosis but left unresolved questions about what happens next for Netflix.
- Content bridges culture and futurism, exploring implications for future of giant digital platforms.
GIRLSĀ® On Tour!
Freya India from Girls
- Author has been touring extensively across US cities and London to promote her book GIRLSĀ® since February release.
- Book launch event at Manhattan Institute featured diverse attendees including young women, men, parents, and grandparents seeking to understand Gen Z dynamics.
- Author emphasizes the meaningful connections made during tour, particularly with people wanting to understand relationships and family dynamics across generations.
CEO Dinner Insights July 2026: Cognoscere et Cognosci
Dion Lim from CEO Dinner Insights
- In an era where AI has made execution cheap, knowing what you wantāhaving a clear visionāis becoming the scarcest resource.
- Self-knowledge and being known by others is prerequisite to understanding what you want and communicating vision effectively.
- Deus ex machina (the god from the machine) serves as a metaphor for resolving conflict, suggesting AI's role in modern problem-solving.
Substack co-founder Chris Best on AI slop, detection, and what still counts as thinking.
Nate from Nateās Substack
- Substack co-founder Chris Best discusses AI detection challenges and what distinguishes genuine thinking from AI-generated 'slop' in written content.
- Lasting stories, exemplified by Homer's Odyssey, remain relevant across millennia because each generation finds new meaning and can engage in living debate about them.
- Great writing creates spaces where strangers can meet and reinterpret meaning, preventing cultural artifacts from calcifying into single fixed interpretations.
- AI detection requires understanding that ideas matter more than mere word choice; authentic thinking leaves traces that pure generation cannot replicate.
The Death of History
Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
- Algorithmic systems are now mainstreaming Holocaust denial and other historical distortions, presenting a new threat to historical truth.
- Historians like Ferguson, who spent decades researching complex historical narratives around antisemitism and the Holocaust, face the challenge that AI-driven algorithms can undermine nuanced scholarship at scale.
- The proliferation of algorithmic misinformation represents a defeat for traditional historical pedagogy and broadcasting efforts to reach mass audiences with accurate accounts.