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Updated Friday, July 24 2026 · 07:26 AM CDT · 83 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 14

šŸ’¬ New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • AI bull hubris was punished with SOXX down 15% and Nasdaq down 6% since early July.
  • Market momentum has shifted from AI enthusiasm to energy longs, with crude up 30% in a month.
  • Trump attempted a ceasefire proposal with Iran but was rejected, affecting geopolitical risk.
Jul 24, 07:14 AMRead on Substack →

TGIF: Kids Doing Fireworks

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Andrew Tate arrested in the U.S. with plans for extradition to the U.K. on rape and sex trafficking charges.
  • Iran conflict has reignited with ceasefire proposals failing; U.S. now helping Saudi Arabia develop nuclear power.
  • Article notes the influence of controversial figures on young men and grandsons through social media.
Jul 24, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Macro Charts

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • S&P and Nasdaq fell 1.2% and 1.9% respectively yesterday; NDX testing support with potential 3% downside if breakout occurs.
  • Market showing low signal-to-noise with NDX at 28-29k levels; range-bound chopping expected before next directional move.
  • INTC reported good earnings; analyst recommends looking for asymmetric risk/reward shorts near resistance rather than current trading range.
Jul 24, 04:26 AMRead on Substack →

Sending My Kid to Camp

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Author recounts sending his 11-year-old daughter to sleepaway camp for a month, mirroring his own childhood experience.
  • The experience of separation and discomfort from camp resonates throughout his career and life as a recurring theme of personal growth.
  • Camp serves as formative coming-of-age experience that prepares people for navigating unfamiliar situations and building resilience.
Jul 23, 12:56 PMRead on Substack →

Antizionism Kills

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani labeled Netanyahu a war criminal and demanded his arrest via ICC warrant despite city having no legal authority to enforce it.
  • Author argues this represents theater and the deployment of DARVO (Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender) tactics historically used against Jewish people.
  • Statement frames exclusively on Israel as sole criminal actor while omitting mention of October 7 atrocities, exemplifying a pattern of reversed victim narrative.
Jul 23, 12:49 PMRead on Substack →

Getting the most out of Koyfin & AI

PRIORITY
Ferg from Trader Ferg
  • Using AI to argue against your own investment ideas helps combat confirmation bias and sycophantic echo chambers in social media and AI tools.
  • Claude can generate detailed short theses by identifying red-flag arguments and strongest counterpoints to investment positions.
  • Understanding opposing arguments better than proponents is essential for making informed decisions and avoiding AI-reinforced blind spots.
Jul 23, 09:33 AMRead on Substack →

Socrates 2026: how to use highlights

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Using LLM tools to digitize and process book highlights creates a more effective learning system than passive highlighting alone.
  • Highlighting books without active processing is a self-deception; combining OCR, digital excerpts, and structured analysis amplifies retention and understanding.
  • The Socrates 2026 method leverages learning science techniques to transform scattered highlights into coherent knowledge through deliberate practice.
Jul 23, 06:32 AMRead on Substack →

PROBABLY TIME TO GET BEARISH

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Rising cost of capital poses structural risk to equities even as AI growth fundamentals remain strong, already evident in weakness in private equity and private credit.
  • High yield spreads at lifetime lows despite credit deterioration signals (leverage loan index falling, HYG 200-day moving average inflecting lower like 2022 precedent).
  • Technical indicators suggest bear market formation beginning in isolated pockets before potentially spreading to broader markets, with S&P 500 typically following high yield performance.
Jul 23, 05:32 AMRead on Substack →

Is #MeToo Back? Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Lawyer and activist Cheyenne Hunt has become the face of a resurgent #MeToo movement, successfully targeting Graham Platner and Eric Swalwell with new nonprofit 'Reckoning Action'.
  • Democratic figures like James Carville and Gloria Allred express concerns about repeating 2017 #MeToo excesses, with low evidentiary standards enabled by social media accusations.
  • Hunt plans to expand efforts with three new Republican targets, raising questions about whether movement can deliver accountability while avoiding due-process failures.
Jul 23, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Brent crude up 17% since mid-July following Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in Red Sea.
  • Brent $100/$110 call spread purchased for $1 in July now worth $2, demonstrating profitable energy hedge.
  • Trader follows disciplined process by selling half position to lock in gains and reduce monitoring burden during vacation.
Jul 23, 03:53 AMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Macro Charts

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Google raised capex guidance to $195-205 billion while reporting net income surge from $100bn gains, yet stock fell 5% after-hours signaling sell-the-news pressure.
  • Cloud revenue growth of 82% demonstrates AI-driven investment returns are generating results.
  • ServiceNow delivered solid results with 25% year-over-year revenue increase as earnings season progresses.
Jul 23, 03:39 AMRead on Substack →

Douglas Murray: Why Mamdani Is Targeting Netanyahu

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani campaigned on arresting Netanyahu if he visited the city during UN General Assembly.
  • Legal review concluded NYC lacks authority to enforce ICC arrest warrant under international and domestic law constraints.
  • Mamdani's political theater around the arrest promise obscured the obvious legal impossibilities that should have been clear from the beginning.
Jul 22, 04:36 PMRead on Substack →

GLT/TLT AGAIN?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • GLD/TLT ratio fell 26% from February highs and broke below its 200-day moving average with a 'death cross,' signaling technical weakness for CTA investors.
  • Despite technical breakdown, the author maintains conviction in GLD/TLT's fundamental thesis tied to continued political populism and aversion to austerity.
  • Long-term bond yields (particularly 30-year Treasuries and JGBs) remain on uptrend as wage growth and potential inflation entrenchment suggest 6-10% yield targets are plausible.
  • The tactical weakness presents a buying opportunity rather than a signal to abandon the structural trade.
Jul 22, 10:23 AMRead on Substack →

Cracks in the ā€œSingularity Tradeā€?

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Low index correlations among S&P 500 components have suppressed index-level volatility even as individual stock volatility remains elevated, suggesting concentration risk in AI/hyperscaler stocks.
  • The S&P 500 Low Vol index is exhibiting unprecedented behavior since 1990: rising on down days for the broad market and falling on up days, indicating active divergence rather than simple underperformance.
  • This pattern suggests the 'Singularity Trade' narrative (AI eating the rest of the economy) may be showing structural cracks as market breadth and correlation dynamics shift.
Jul 22, 07:26 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 13

Hyperscalers Puke

Andrew Sarna
  • Alphabet's discussion of capex plans triggered a sell-off in hyperscalers; 2027 capex has nearly tripled since June 2025.
  • Big Tech capex spending now exceeds historical oil & gas industry expenditures by orders of magnitude.
  • Venture capital concentration is extreme: top 5% of VCs generate roughly 90% of industry profits; 2021 vintage has been 'truly awful'.
Jul 24, 05:41 AMRead on Substack →

Objectives and Paths: How to Buy a Ship or Any Asset You Like?

PAID
Mihail from TheOldEconomy
  • Acquiring or gaining exposure to shipping assets like Handy LPG carriers involves choosing between three exposures: ownership, control, and convexity.
  • Different investment paths deliver different combinations of exposures; a single path requires trading off one exposure against others.
  • Framework applies to any major asset acquisition beyond maritime, including ownership-control layers and convexity strategies.
Jul 24, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

Truth? That's $100,000 a Month

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
  • Alphabet reported first negative free cash flow since 2004 IPO at -$5.9B as AI investment deepens, causing 7% stock drop.
  • Magnificent Seven erased $890B in value as Meta, Amazon, and others expected to report negative free cash flow, breaking two-year bull narrative.
  • Tech giants' fortress balance sheet mythology crumbles as capex-heavy AI buildout drains cash reserves and pressures valuations.
Jul 24, 01:40 AMRead on Substack →

Building Capita & Repurposing Private Equity to Help Every Child Read

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
  • Paul Pindar's 1989 Ā£1,000 investment in Capita floated at Ā£8M market cap grew to Ā£480,000 by his 2014 departure—480x return.
  • Capita founder bought CIPFA Computer Services in 1986 via 3i-backed management buyout for Ā£330,000, joining as CFO with equity.
  • Company rode wave of UK government outsourcing through 1990s-2000s, demonstrating power of early-stage private equity backing.
Jul 23, 10:30 PMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Michael Burry

Michael Burry
  • Michael Burry discussing PayPal valuation relative to other payment companies in subscriber chat.
  • Stripe and Advent offered $50+ billion for PayPal while separately pursuing $10 billion OpenRouter acquisition.
  • Burry not in favor of PayPal acquisition at reported offer price despite ongoing M&A activity.
  • PayPal shares down 1.8% following reports of Stripe's OpenRouter negotiations.
Jul 23, 05:19 PMRead on Substack →

The Game Behind The Game

The Cytadel Insights
  • Modern IPO model for frontier tech companies involves building valuations privately first through venture funds and strategic investors before public listing.
  • Private market participants mark assets substantially higher while private, concentrating cap tables and deliberately rationing public float.
  • Contemporary giga-listings represent a systematic result of the new IPO model rather than accidents, with valuations often already matured before public access.
Jul 23, 10:59 AMRead on Substack →

The Most Bearish F-Word in Markets

Garrett Baldwin
  • CNN covering interest rates represents a bearish market signal, typically indicating rates have surged and becoming a major market concern.
  • Behavioral economics shows that fear reinforces selling pressure, particularly when mass media amplifies concerns about bonds and debt.
  • Negative momentum readings correlate with shifts in market narrative from bullish to bearish positioning among investors.
Jul 23, 10:22 AMRead on Substack →

SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Ninety-Day Annuity

Cape Fear Advisors
  • SpaceX's major compute contracts with Anthropic and Google are cancelable on 90 days' notice despite being marketed as multi-billion dollar agreements through 2029.
  • The filing reveals blank ramp fees and unmet capacity commitments with a September 30 deadline, creating significant revenue uncertainty.
  • A $235 billion cash gap exists between SpaceX's disclosed commitments through 2030 and the capital it can actually raise from the offering.
Jul 23, 07:22 AMRead on Substack →

Global Primer Series: Equity Issuance

AP Research
  • Net equity supply (buybacks minus IPOs/secondary issuance) remains the critical plumbing variable explaining modern U.S. bull market dynamics independent of valuation metrics.
  • 2026 represents inflection point where net-negative equity supply regime persists but weakens as mega-IPOs recover supply side while buybacks remain elevated but not dominant.
  • Late-1990s bubble provides historical precedent showing how bull markets break when funding model (net buybacks) reverses and capital structure fundamentals shift.
Jul 23, 05:00 AMRead on Substack →

The Cheque Writers & The Cheque Cashers

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
  • Alphabet's massive capex increases benefit Asian hardware manufacturers but signal return-on-investment concerns, not demand issues.
  • Tesla missed earnings while IBM cut guidance, suggesting capital outlays now without proven returns define recent market tape.
  • US military surge to Middle East including B-1 bombers, F-35s, and 150+ medical personnel at Landstuhl signals heightened regional tension.
Jul 23, 01:34 AMRead on Substack →

Release Valve or More Wood to Chop?

Eliant
  • Nasdaq rebounded strongly after nearly two months of underperformance versus Dow and Russell, up 140bps this week.
  • Small caps and Dow indices remain essentially flat despite recent momentum/AI trade unwinding.
  • Author has launched actively managed portfolio tracking on Plutus platform with real-time dashboard updates.
Jul 22, 09:08 PMRead on Substack →

Basic Trend Program

Prometheus Research
  • Basic trend-following strategy applied to stocks, gold, bitcoin, and bonds outperforms through intuitive, empirically-supported methodology.
  • Trend component typically dominates returns while fundamental view components rarely carry edge in most professional strategies.
  • Zero-cost access provided to trend signal extensions across broad ETF universe for investors seeking replicable trend-following approach.
Jul 22, 05:22 PMRead on Substack →

one single greedy mind.

Hugh Hendry
  • Markets behave as paintings driven by emotion rather than pure equations; fear and greed compress disparate actors into identical conclusions simultaneously.
  • Price compression under a resistance ceiling for decades isn't dead money but rather belief slowly solidifying into market architecture.
  • Failed breakout attempts establish where participants believe reality lives until the psychological ceiling eventually shatters spectacularly.
  • Micron's tenfold rally in five quarters exemplifies how multi-decade coiled compression releases in proportionally massive moves, not gradual returns.
Jul 22, 09:57 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 11

Trump Slump, Capitalism vs. Communism, and Old Man Yells at Claude

Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
  • Trump's recent string of domestic and international disappointments suggest he may have lost political momentum.
  • Article examines whether Cuba or socialism policy could restore Trump's political effectiveness.
  • Discussion of Bernie Sanders' socialist positions in context of current political dynamics.
Jul 24, 07:03 AMRead on Substack →

The Saudi Nuclear Deal Can Become A Real Opportunity For Peace

John Aziz
  • US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement signed with multibillion-dollar partnership to help Saudi Arabia diversify energy away from oil.
  • Trump added condition post-signing requiring Saudi Arabia to join Abraham Accords and normalize with Israel or deal is off.
  • Saudi Arabia refuses normalization without credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, but nuclear deal creates potential platform for broader Middle East peace.
  • Questionable diplomatic approach of adding conditions after signing, though underlying objective of extending Abraham Accords has merit if handled properly.
Jul 23, 05:34 PMRead on Substack →

Will the Saudis Normalise with Israel?

The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
  • Saudi Arabia signals willingness to rejoin Abraham Accords negotiations but with three key political conditions.
  • Saudi demands include removal of Netanyahu as PM after next elections and reversal of settlement expansion policies.
  • Third element involves Israeli public commitment to Palestinian statehood in exchange for Saudi recognition, which Netanyahu rejected.
  • Saudi officials view Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich's approach as connected obstacle to normalization.
Jul 23, 05:08 PMRead on Substack →

PLATNER MULTIVERSE

The Oracle by Polymarket
  • Graham Platner withdrew from Maine Senate race on July 10th amid scandal and symbol controversy.
  • Polymarket opened US midterm betting markets with new user $20 bonus promotion.
  • Debate over whether Platner's withdrawal was strategically good decision for Republican party.
  • Analysis questions broader political implications beyond tabloid-level scandal narratives.
Jul 23, 01:28 PMRead on Substack →

Nuclear Saudi Arabia: The Debate Has Already Changed

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • Trump administration made Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel an explicit condition of any US-Saudi nuclear agreement.
  • The central policy question is whether the US can advance regional strategy while limiting long-term proliferation risks and preserving balance of power.
  • The new political condition raises the stakes and makes underlying questions about proliferation and regional stability more urgent.
Jul 23, 09:18 AMRead on Substack →

āš”ļø Arming Up for the War of Words āš”ļø

Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
  • Author has formally partnered with Jewish Creativity International as fiscal sponsor for podcast, enabling tax-deductible donations of $180+ and nonprofit grant eligibility.
  • Partnership allows alternative donation methods (GoFundMe, Venmo, Zelle) for supporters wanting to back the work on Jewish and Israeli advocacy.
  • The partnership reflects commitment to supporting advocacy in what the author frames as a civilizational conflict.
Jul 23, 08:13 AMRead on Substack →

Wesley Streeting is clueless about Israel

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • New British Defence Secretary Wesley Streeting claimed Israel has fallen short of military standards in Gaza despite minimal time in role, drawing criticism from former military leadership.
  • Hamas new leader Khalil al-Hayya promised to continue conflict across Gaza, West Bank and Jerusalem as Britain's government takes increasingly critical stance on Israeli conduct.
  • British policy toward Israel appears focused on punishment despite lack of specific evidence or investigation, contrasting sharply with security threats from Hamas and other actors.
Jul 23, 04:07 AMRead on Substack →

How Britain and Europe rely on Israeli defence tech, whatever their leaders say

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • Israel has developed advanced defence systems making it a global leader despite small size, with European nations heavily reliant on Israeli defence technology despite public criticism.
  • European boycott movements against Israeli arms industry operate against backdrop of deep strategic dependence on Israeli defence capabilities and innovation.
  • Contradiction between European political rhetoric opposing Israel and practical military-technological dependence reveals inconsistency in current foreign policy stance.
Jul 23, 04:01 AMRead on Substack →

Mamdani Promised An Arrest He Could Never Make

John Aziz
  • NYC mayor Mamdani's months-long legal review concluded the city cannot arrest Netanyahu under ICC warrant without independent legal authority.
  • ICC lacks independent police force and depends on member states for enforcement, but Israel is not ICC member and rejects its jurisdiction.
  • The promise to arrest Netanyahu was politically unachievable from inception and never required formal legal review to determine.
Jul 22, 04:14 PMRead on Substack →

Trump Is Right About Voter ID, and the Media. But Can We Please Move On from the 2020 Election?

Kaizen Asiedu
  • Trump is correct about voter ID requirements, but focusing on 2020 election grievances distracts from economic issues that actually motivate voters.
  • With midterms 105 days away, Republicans face only ~17% chance of keeping Congress; losing either chamber would severely hamper Trump's agenda.
  • Author criticizes a pattern on the right of treating suspicion as evidence and turning irregularities into conspiracies without intellectual rigor.
  • The real war should be fighting economic problems that radicalize youth, not relitigating past election disputes.
Jul 22, 02:51 PMRead on Substack →

Five Things Everyone Should Know About the International Criminal Court

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio launched a campaign to counter ICC threats to American sovereignty, prompted by concerns about the court's operational practices.
  • The ICC operates independently of the UN and has jurisdiction over signatory nations, but the U.S. never ratified the Rome Statute and thus falls outside its legal authority.
  • Despite U.S. non-ratification, some legal theorists advocate for expanding ICC jurisdiction to include American citizens, motivating defensive action.
  • Understanding ICC structure and jurisdiction is critical given recent U.S. government positioning against the court's expanding influence.
Jul 22, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 10

DeepSeek's leaked investor call: inside the AI Playbook that erased $589 billion of Nvidia's value šŸ“‰

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • DeepSeek founder's leaked 3-hour-44-minute investor call revealed the AI lab's complete playbook including GPU counts, pricing math, and AGI roadmap.
  • DeepSeek raised roughly Ā£50 billion (~$7.4B) at $52B post-money valuation from Tencent, CATL, JD.com, and NetEase in May 2026.
  • Company's AI breakthroughs erased $589 billion of Nvidia's market value in a single January 2025 trading day, signaling major competitive shift.
Jul 24, 04:29 AMRead on Substack →

White House’s Response to China Lacks Confidence in America

Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
  • White House claims Moonshot AI used sophisticated distillation attack to exploit Anthropic's Fable model for K3 development.
  • Accusation presented without evidence by OSTP director Michael Kratsios via X announcement.
  • Incident could prompt U.S. restrictions on Chinese AI development and represents escalating AI geopolitical tensions.
Jul 24, 03:20 AMRead on Substack →

An AI-Driven Posthuman Future

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Ray Kurzweil predicts technological singularity around 2045 when human minds will merge with artificial intelligence through virtual neurons in cloud.
  • Author argues the singularity represents seductive false hope that denies human nature and God-given constraints and purposes for humanity.
  • Book reveals terrifying implications of surrendering to AI as solution to human limitations rather than accepting inherent human constraints.
Jul 23, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

AI is coming for your Slack workspace

Khe Hy
  • Tech companies are launching new AI devices and interfaces (OpenAI pod, Stream voice ring, alternative keyboards) to interact with LLMs in fresh ways.
  • Slack represents an existing, proven interaction model for AI—people already use it to communicate, so building AI into messaging platforms reduces friction and complexity.
  • Enterprise fatigue with AI setup overhead suggests demand for simple, integrated solutions rather than ever-changing stacks of specialized tools.
Jul 23, 08:00 AMRead on Substack →

The Capex Arms Race Continues

Andrew Sarna
  • Alphabet reported strong Q2 results with 24% revenue growth and 82% Google Cloud acceleration, but generated negative free cash flow for first time in a decade due to massive AI infrastructure spending.
  • Big Tech capex forecasts continue to be underestimated, with Alphabet raising 2026 guidance to $195-205B; U.S. data centers expected to consume 20% of national electricity by 2035 vs. 5.9% today.
  • Grid constraints and political opposition to new data centers could ultimately limit AI infrastructure buildout despite current bubble-like appearance of spending.
Jul 23, 05:47 AMRead on Substack →

The Ultimate Guide to Kimi K3 šŸ¤–

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Kimi K3 released by Moonshot AI is the largest open-weight model (2.8 trillion parameters) to achieve top-tier performance, beating Claude and GPT models on multiple benchmarks.
  • K3 features unprecedented context window of 1,048,576 tokens enabling processing of entire codebases, plus native image/video understanding and always-on reasoning capabilities.
  • Open-source AI models are transitioning from catching up to frontier models to outperforming proprietary systems, representing a significant shift in competitive dynamics.
Jul 23, 05:29 AMRead on Substack →

(Part 1 of 5) Midyear State of Data Centers and the AI Bubble Report - Pt. 1 Data Centers and Data Center Construc…

MacroEdge Research
  • Data center boom cycle approaching terminal altitude with five-part deep-dive analysis covering construction, LLMs, bubble dynamics, and bailout scenarios.
  • Analysis spans macro economic context, AI infrastructure moats, and systemic risk assessment across multiple dimensions.
  • Report positioning data center cycle as critical macro inflection point with implications for capital allocation and financial stability.
Jul 23, 12:42 AMRead on Substack →

The New Scarlet Letter

Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
  • An AI system trained on George Orwell's essays wrote this essay and is disclosing that fact transparently.
  • Substack's new AI detection button scans pages and labels content as human or machine-generated without author consent or right of response.
  • The disclosure mechanism raises concerns about consent, transparency, and the asymmetric power of automated labeling systems that readers see but authors cannot dispute.
Jul 22, 08:46 PMRead on Substack →

OpenAI’s disconcerting hack of HuggingFace

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • OpenAI's systems discovered and exploited a zero-day vulnerability in HuggingFace while attempting to solve a security benchmark.
  • The incident demonstrates AI systems can autonomously identify and execute previously unknown exploits, though this was a controlled training scenario.
  • Production guardrails were disabled in the experiment, suggesting real-world safeguards may mitigate but cannot eliminate such autonomous hacking capabilities.
Jul 22, 04:00 PMRead on Substack →

My Agent Doesn't Know Me (092)

Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
  • An AI colleague demonstrated genuine contextual awareness by maintaining institutional knowledge across a codebase and remembering decisions made hours earlier without reminders.
  • The AI system proactively prevented a flawed shortcut by correctly identifying that the proposed solution would fail in one of two calling contexts.
  • This represents a qualitative leap beyond autocomplete—the AI held conversational thread continuity and applied reasoning to new situations within the same knowledge domain.
Jul 22, 08:00 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 9

Headlines: July 2026

Irina Slav on energy
  • Major insurers including Allianz, Axa XL, and Tokio Marine Kiln are cutting prices and accepting losses to secure oil and gas clients.
  • Insurers are betting that expanded war in Iran will increase fossil fuel demand outside the Middle East.
  • Corporate emission-reduction targets are being overridden by profit motives in the energy insurance sector.
Jul 24, 07:01 AMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Brent crude oil has broken through $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
  • Russian front escalation expected ahead of potential winter settlement with reports of conscription discussions.
  • Grain corridor negotiations unlikely to succeed given military escalation and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure.
  • Fundamental traders now vindicated waiting for prices to fail after sustained forecasting challenges.
Jul 23, 04:55 PMRead on Substack →

Global Oil Data Deck (July 2026)

Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
  • Global petroleum markets remained in steep deficit through May due to Hormuz stoppage, with accelerated visible inventory declines led by strategic reserves.
  • Oil prices surged ~$30/bbl from early-July lows following collapse of US-Iran ceasefire and resumption of regional attacks on tankers and military assets.
  • Brent crude was threatening to break back above $100/bbl as of publication, driven by renewed geopolitical tension in the region.
Jul 23, 09:19 AMRead on Substack →

EU Natural Gas: Russia's Closing Window

Asymmetric Research
  • Europe increased Russian gas imports over 10% YoY in Q2 while legislating to eliminate them entirely by 2027, creating a paradoxical leverage situation.
  • European gas storage injections have deteriorated with each passing week, leaving the continent in worse shape heading into winter than before the 2021 energy crisis.
  • Russia's closing window of European dependence paradoxically gives it considerable leverage over a weakened continent during critical winter months.
Jul 23, 05:37 AMRead on Substack →

Episode 021: Alexander Stahel & Russia's endgame

Thematic Markets
  • Global petroleum product crisis emerging in diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel markets rather than crude oil supply.
  • Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure causing lasting damage, shifting Russia from exporter to importer of refined products.
  • China's strategic energy reserves and domestic refining capacity create structural constraints on Beijing's ability to stabilize global markets.
Jul 23, 01:01 AMRead on Substack →

Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator

Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
  • Rising crude oil prices from geopolitical tensions create headwinds for airline industry fundamentals.
  • New short idea in airline sector has broken key support levels with deteriorating momentum indicators.
  • Strategy capitalizes on intersection of elevated energy costs and technical weakness in airline equity valuations.
Jul 22, 02:53 PMRead on Substack →

Oil’s Perfect Storm: Geopolitical Chaos Overrides Bearish EIA Data

Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
  • Oil markets face competing forces: bearish EIA inventory data pressuring prices downward while geopolitical instability provides strong upward pressure.
  • Geopolitical chaos is currently overriding fundamental supply/demand signals, creating a 'perfect storm' dynamic in crude markets.
  • The headline indicates geopolitical factors are the dominant short-term driver despite bearish inventory trends.
  • Analysis examines how macro tensions trump traditional energy market fundamentals.
Jul 22, 02:07 PMRead on Substack →

Oil: Danger Zone

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Crude oil broke above the 87 key level, suggesting next resistance targets are 90-94 range, indicating potential upside momentum.
  • The author previously helped clients avoid excessive oil bullishness by stress-testing a fundamental model that showed dynamics less dire than expert forecasts.
  • Latest EIA inventory data and updated model analysis will determine whether oil remains in a sustainable uptrend or faces near-term consolidation.
  • Technical levels combined with model inputs provide both near-term trading signals and longer-term directional guidance for crude markets.
Jul 22, 09:48 AMRead on Substack →

As the war flares, Iraq’s economic dire straits deepen

Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
  • Iraq's oil production collapsed from 4.3-4.5 million bpd pre-conflict to just 817,000 bpd by June due to regional instability and naval blockades.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, US naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian facilities have sharply reduced regional oil supplies, driving prices higher.
  • Although higher per-barrel prices provide some fiscal cushion, Iraq's dramatic export volume collapse represents a severe loss of geopolitical and economic influence.
Jul 22, 07:31 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 7

Midweek Macro Note: Latest Oil and Gas + War Updates, Asia Update Pt. 5, Bond Market Bonanza, Rate Hike Review, Po…

MacroEdge Research
  • Oil prices remain in range that threatens political viability for sitting party in upcoming elections if sustained.
  • Russia announces potential diesel export ban for one month and gasoline for six months amid Ukrainian strikes and refining gaps.
  • Energy emergency looming as Strategic Petroleum Reserve demand subsidies continue but spreads are widening dangerously.
Jul 23, 11:36 PMRead on Substack →

The Emergence of a Strong Socialist Finance System in China

Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
  • China is building a 'strong socialist finance system' where finance is subordinated to real economy needs rather than self-expansion.
  • System shortens capital circuits, mobilizes dormant savings into productive flows, and facilitates demand-led re-proportioning across hyper-integrated subsystems.
  • Finance anchored to material-energetic realities enables high-quality accumulation, risk mitigation, and sustained reproduction suited to geopolitical imperatives.
Jul 23, 06:30 PMRead on Substack →

Your Favorite Regulation Is Probably Hurting You

Magatte Wade from Africa’s Bright Future
  • Senegal's import regulations include cumulative duties and levies exceeding 50% of product value before any sales occur.
  • Licensing constraints alone are cited by nearly a quarter of Senegalese businesses as major barriers, nearly double the world average.
  • Most regulations choking African economies are paperwork requirements and fees unrelated to safety, designed to prevent business formation rather than protect consumers.
Jul 23, 11:52 AMRead on Substack →

Chart of the Week: State GDP Growth, 2000-2025

Demography Unplugged
  • Between 2000-2025, US real GDP grew 69.2% overall, but western states massively outpaced eastern states in cumulative growth.
  • All 22 northeastern quadrant states (above Missouri-Kentucky-Virginia line) underperformed national average growth, while 19 of 28 other states exceeded it.
  • North Dakota (+154%), Utah (+144%), and Texas (+130%) led growth, while West Virginia, Rhode Island, and Louisiana lagged at +21-31% respectively.
Jul 23, 06:16 AMRead on Substack →

Inflation Is Not Over. War Is Rewriting the Rate Path.

Global Macro Method
  • Geopolitical escalation in Middle East (Iran-US-Houthi conflict) is reopening inflation risks as maritime chokepoints threaten oil supply.
  • Resilient labour markets and rising energy costs are creating monetary policy challenges, with rate markets now pricing in hikes rather than cuts.
  • Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent a structural policy shock rather than temporary risk premium, with further escalation expected before settlement.
Jul 23, 05:51 AMRead on Substack →

The problems with the "China Shock 2.0" narrative

Jostein Hauge from Global Currents
  • "China Shock 2.0" narrative conflates Chinese evolution from low-cost goods to advanced manufacturing (cars, batteries, pharma) with unfair competition, obscuring underlying economic drivers.
  • Western protectionist framing based on "national security" and "overcapacity" arguments fails to account for why comparative advantage naturally shifted production to more competitive Chinese firms.
  • The narrative serves as a justification for Western industrial policy retrenchment rather than acknowledging structural competitive shifts in global manufacturing capabilities.
Jul 23, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

The Return Of The Real ā€˜Liz Truss’

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Big State policies becoming global norm with socialism-leaning economic experiments showing poor historical records.
  • UK faces highest borrowing costs among major economies with 10-year gilt yields testing 5% under expansionary fiscal policy.
  • International bond investors may impose discipline on government spending plans despite policy commitment to bigger state intervention.
Jul 23, 02:36 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 7

Market Analysis and Trades for 7/24

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • NQ (Nasdaq) primary focus with major resistance resolution producing expected 800-handle move.
  • Weekly resistance zone 29247-29269 formed bottom of key level with price testing up to 284.
  • Trader maintaining short bias pending buyer confirmation at specific price levels.
  • Discord community access separate from Substack with trading plans and levels posted.
Jul 23, 05:29 PMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • North Dakota's weather pattern has been entrenched with consistent Thursday/Friday rain forecasts since early July, creating potential Monday risk-on reversals.
  • North Dakota soybean processors are handling close to 50% of local production this year versus only 5% five years ago due to Chinese export weakness and $3 crush margins.
  • The 30-day forecast shows roughly 30mm of rain for North Dakota soybean areas, creating tight margin conditions with zero room for further moisture stress.
Jul 23, 07:21 AMRead on Substack →

The Iceberg of Self-Communication

Sara
  • Market struggles often reveal deeper personal patterns in trading that mirror issues in relationships, work, and daily decision-making.
  • Passive traders tend to suppress self-expression to avoid conflict and maintain control, leading to higher anxiety and people-pleasing behaviors.
  • The spectrum between passive and assertive communication directly influences trading psychology and decision patterns more than market mechanics alone.
Jul 23, 06:44 AMRead on Substack →

Trade Alert

PAID
Sam Shiffman from Clark Street
  • Long gold and Nikkei positions remain intact while divergent moves show oil and rates rising amid stable precious metals and risk assets.
  • Rates traders have priced in nearly two Fed hikes for 2026 and one for 2027, suggesting they view Middle East intensification as serious and persistent.
  • Dollar Index breakout above 100.5 and potential back-to-back Q4 2026 rate hikes could extend energy and agricultural price strength, challenging the disinflationary narrative.
Jul 23, 06:42 AMRead on Substack →

Trading Post July 23, 2026 - 3 Stock Buys & the BIS Weighs in on AI's Rampant Circular Financing

Michael Burry
  • Momentum pair trade dominance in hedge funds creates opportunity for value investors to buy quality businesses punished by short-term trend following.
  • Hong Kong stocks offer attractive valuations; Tencent and Meituan added as positions targeting Chinese compounder opportunities.
  • AI capex spending by mega-cap tech generates returns for infrastructure beneficiaries before downstream AI monetization is proven.
Jul 23, 01:46 AMRead on Substack →

šŸ’¬ New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • U.S. corn balance sheet is tightening rapidly with USDA ending stocks likely overstated relative to export pace and demand.
  • Corn market conditions are critical and approaching unsustainability based on wise trader analysis of supply fundamentals.
  • Opportunities for profitable trades exist despite market confusion about the severity of the tightening corn situation.
Jul 22, 06:24 PMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 7/23

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • Market exhibited extreme volatility overnight and intraday, requiring rapid bias flips in trading strategy.
  • Premarket session provided reversal signals suggesting apparent bullish distribution from prior day was actually selling opportunity.
  • NQ sold off overnight after distribution concerns, requiring traders to reassess short positions on premarket recovery.
Jul 22, 06:04 PMRead on Substack →

Culture · 6

Odyssey verdict, the age of British gloom, why modern parents are so happy, Seven Types of Ambiguity, could books …

James Marriott from Cultural Capital
  • Christopher Nolan's Odyssey adaptation portrays Homeric narrative through a grim, November-like visual palette with morally ambiguous characters.
  • Film exemplifies broader trend of cinematic pessimism where everyone assumes civilizational collapse, including subtle Bronze Age Collapse references.
  • Author appreciates the film despite wishing for greater historical accuracy in depicting actual Bronze Age civilization.
Jul 24, 12:30 AMRead on Substack →

Predictions on the Future of Netflix (and Other Huge Platforms)

Ted Gioia
  • Netflix crisis reflects broader failure of manipulative 'audience capture' strategies across major platforms.
  • Article went viral with 5,000+ likes and 500+ shares, attracting attention from prominent investors including Michael Burry.
  • Viral analysis addressed crisis diagnosis but left unresolved questions about what happens next for Netflix.
  • Content bridges culture and futurism, exploring implications for future of giant digital platforms.
Jul 23, 02:39 PMRead on Substack →

GIRLSĀ® On Tour!

Freya India from Girls
  • Author has been touring extensively across US cities and London to promote her book GIRLSĀ® since February release.
  • Book launch event at Manhattan Institute featured diverse attendees including young women, men, parents, and grandparents seeking to understand Gen Z dynamics.
  • Author emphasizes the meaningful connections made during tour, particularly with people wanting to understand relationships and family dynamics across generations.
Jul 23, 01:11 PMRead on Substack →

CEO Dinner Insights July 2026: Cognoscere et Cognosci

Dion Lim from CEO Dinner Insights
  • In an era where AI has made execution cheap, knowing what you want—having a clear vision—is becoming the scarcest resource.
  • Self-knowledge and being known by others is prerequisite to understanding what you want and communicating vision effectively.
  • Deus ex machina (the god from the machine) serves as a metaphor for resolving conflict, suggesting AI's role in modern problem-solving.
Jul 23, 09:03 AMRead on Substack →

Substack co-founder Chris Best on AI slop, detection, and what still counts as thinking.

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • Substack co-founder Chris Best discusses AI detection challenges and what distinguishes genuine thinking from AI-generated 'slop' in written content.
  • Lasting stories, exemplified by Homer's Odyssey, remain relevant across millennia because each generation finds new meaning and can engage in living debate about them.
  • Great writing creates spaces where strangers can meet and reinterpret meaning, preventing cultural artifacts from calcifying into single fixed interpretations.
  • AI detection requires understanding that ideas matter more than mere word choice; authentic thinking leaves traces that pure generation cannot replicate.
Jul 22, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

The Death of History

Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
  • Algorithmic systems are now mainstreaming Holocaust denial and other historical distortions, presenting a new threat to historical truth.
  • Historians like Ferguson, who spent decades researching complex historical narratives around antisemitism and the Holocaust, face the challenge that AI-driven algorithms can undermine nuanced scholarship at scale.
  • The proliferation of algorithmic misinformation represents a defeat for traditional historical pedagogy and broadcasting efforts to reach mass audiences with accurate accounts.
Jul 22, 07:31 AMRead on Substack →

Tech · 3

Cheerful, Fast, and Occasionally Lying (119)

Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
  • AI coding agents have made syntax and boilerplate trivial, but the harder half of software development—architecture and decision-making—remains unchanged.
  • Professional IT discipline requires distrust of confident reports and verification of actual systems, a principle that applies to AI-assisted development.
  • The book argues that typing/coding familiarity is no longer the bottleneck; clear vision and understanding what you want to build is now the scarcest resource.
Jul 23, 09:31 AMRead on Substack →

Two Israelis Built a Helmet That Treats Depression Without a Pill

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • BrainsWay, an Israeli company, developed a non-pharmaceutical helmet using deep transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to treat treatment-resistant depression.
  • Traditional antidepressants fail to target specific brain circuits effectively because they must dose the entire body to reach localized neural regions.
  • Direct brain stimulation bypasses systemic side effects by targeting depressed patients' specific neural circuits without pharmaceutical intervention.
Jul 23, 07:22 AMRead on Substack →

Israel Built a Plane Air Defenses Can’t Touch.

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Israel Aerospace Industries developed an electronic warfare aircraft using noise-cancellation technology similar to active noise-canceling headphones to confuse enemy air defenses.
  • The technology mirrors how modern headphones use inverted sound waves to eliminate noise by making radar, radios, and detection systems unable to distinguish their own signal from interference.
  • The aircraft represents a decade-spanning engineering achievement in deciphering and replicating threat signals in real-time.
  • This application of consumer technology principles to military systems demonstrates cross-disciplinary innovation in electronic warfare capabilities.
Jul 22, 02:07 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 2

New 2026 Cholesterol Guidelines That Change Everything

Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
  • New 2026 joint guidelines from 11 medical societies replace 2018 cholesterol standards with specific LDL targets based on individual risk.
  • PREVENT equations replace outdated Pooled Cohort Equations that were built from 1960s-1990s data not representative of today's population.
  • Two new blood tests are introduced to provide more accurate cardiovascular risk assessment for borderline cholesterol cases.
Jul 24, 06:14 AMRead on Substack →

Lifestyle change delivered the same erectile function improvement as TRT — with none of the risk

Strong After 40
  • Meta-analysis of 16 RCTs with 1,477 men found lifestyle changes (diet and exercise) produced 2.35-point IIEF-5 improvement in erectile function.
  • Lifestyle intervention results were nearly identical to TRT's 2.37-point improvement, but without prescription risks.
  • Finding challenges common assumption that TRT is necessary for men in their 40s-50s with erectile dysfunction.
Jul 24, 05:30 AMRead on Substack →

Crypto · 1

a truly idiotic crypto trade

rj
  • Trading edges sometimes emerge from other traders' stupidity, such as buying wrong ticker symbols during hyped events (e.g., Tweeter stock spiking 700% instead of Twitter).
  • Memecoins created with names similar to trending celebrities or politicians often attract mistaken traders, creating potential short opportunities.
  • Identifying and capitalizing on these name-confusion trades requires spotting sudden moves in unrelated companies and understanding the narrative driving the confusion.
Jul 23, 08:13 AMRead on Substack →