★ Priority · 10
The Next AI Trade Is Getting Cheaper
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Software basket from March positioning is up 47% as market underestimated AI's software applications.
- Semiconductor and memory positions now warrant reconsideration after summer unwinding improved valuations and positioning clarity.
- Index dispersion remains high (SPX +4% vs equal-weight S&P +7% May-August); author maintains 8000+ SPX target for year-end.
š¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- Market correlation hit lowest levels in recent period, signaling increased dispersion across asset classes.
- Multiple geopolitical events unfolding simultaneously: AI hype/Anthropic IPO, AFD victory in Germany, Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
- Jensen Huang claims AGI achieved; Anthropic walking away from $6bn Decart acquisition ahead of IPO.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Iran-US tensions escalated over weekend; Germany's far-right continues gaining political momentum.
- Barron's bearish bond cover signals potential shift in fixed income sentiment.
- Wall Street will aggressively push AI narratives to ensure success of upcoming Anthropic IPO; Treasury Secretary Bessent managing Yen lower at 154.
Claudificationā¢ļø Overdrive
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Jensen Huang's AGI proclamation met with skepticism; mirrors hype cycle needed for Anthropic and OpenAI IPO success.
- Claudification concept describes concentration of investment decisions into AI systems favoring their own ecosystem self-interest.
- AI ecosystem requires massive capital; Wall Street and LLMs will saturate market with bullish AI narratives to ensure IPO success.
Spencer Cox: The Day Charlie Kirk Died. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Utah Governor Spencer Cox reflects on the assassination of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University and its aftermath.
- The tragedy prompted hopes for political reconciliation, but divisions in America have deepened rather than healed.
- Cox shares behind-the-scenes account of the immediate response and his reflections on the nation's political direction.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- WTI crude oil pushing above July highs near $95, with key resistance at $99-100 and daily RSI approaching July's topside level of 71.
- Yields, dollar, and precious metals showing muted reaction to oil's move, which is constructive for market stability.
- Copper rallying out of consolidation toward new all-time highs alongside broader commodity strength.
Being Jewish is Punk
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Jewish identity is defined by active choice and defiant resilience rather than passive religious categorization.
- The author argues that antisemitism persists because Jewish people refuse to assimilate or disappear, challenging global power structures.
- Being Jewish is framed as inherently 'punk'āa refusal to accept prescribed roles and a commitment to survival against historical odds.
IS IT THE END OF THE ROAD FOR GLD/TLT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GLD/TLT trade may be ending as long-dated treasuries now have worse 10-year returns than the 1970s due to very low coupons extending duration.
- 10-year commodity returns have been strong, but political shift toward fiscal conservatism could reverse the GLD/TLT trade's viability.
- Best time to short an asset is when it transitions from being good to bad, raising questions about continuing bearish TLT positioning.
I Was a Workaholic. Quitting Changed My Life.
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Former workaholic and New York Times writer argues that quitting is often a courageous choice rather than failure of resolve.
- Personal essay explores the dark side of relentless ambition and the pursuit of perseverance as a cultural value.
- Reflects on work meaning and sustainability in modern economy where alternative paths to success are increasingly available.
The Quiet Turning
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Michael Green reflects on a conversation about exaggerating technological capabilities as standard 'pitchcraft' in modern finance and tech.
- The anecdote highlights a cultural shift toward normalizing deception and misrepresentation as ordinary business practice.
- Green contrasts genuine proprietary data value (1TB of security flow information since 2013) with inflated claims designed to impress investors.
- The piece explores how 'common knowledge' that grifters will grift without consequence shapes market behavior and deal-making culture.
Macro · 16
YWR: How to get a free lunch.
PAIDErik@YWR
- Stocks outperformed bonds by 395x over 210 years ($700k vs $1,778), yet markets still classify bonds as 'risk-free' despite inflationary erosion.
- Rational markets should show stampede into equities given centuries of data, lower inflation-hedge risk, and superior long-term returns versus bonds.
- Behavioral and structural factors prevent optimal capital allocation despite clear historical evidence favoring equity positioning.
Circle September 15 - Money Printer Pro (9/8)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- September 15 represents critical coordination point: tax outflows drain banking reserves while ~$119B Treasury auctions occur simultaneously.
- Fed meeting, triple witching, and potential higher yields create perfect storm for collateral stress similar to 2019 repo spike.
- Central banks actively managing around September 15 threat via buyback program doubling and persistent Fed reserve support.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity supported by benign funding conditions, but underlying liquidity creation remains weak with SMB growth still negative.
- Investor risk appetite remains strong, increasingly favoring select developed markets and commodity-related emerging markets.
- Weekly liquidity monitoring highlights disconnect between surface-level funding ease and underlying money creation challenges.
The Bond Vigilantes Hold the Keys
Andrew Sarna
- Rising global bond yields are becoming a serious problem for markets and policymakers, with US officials trapped between avoiding rate hikes (fiscal concerns) and not cutting (market revolt).
- Strong nonfarm payroll report and Fed Governor Waller's dovish comments created conflicting signals on September rate hike probability, keeping markets uncertain.
- Hyperscaler capital spending continues pushing yields higher, but higher financing costs unlikely to slow AI buildout near-term, creating structural pressure on rates.
Weekly Macro Note: Another Day, More Inflation and Around the Globe We Go
MacroEdge Research
- Fed rate-hike decisions matter less than energy price movements and yields, which are being driven by fiscal dominance and will determine economic outcomes regardless of the 25bps decision.
- Macro data quality is so compromised that investors must rely on alternative signals and energy/yield metrics to assess true economic conditions.
- Fourth quarter is shaping up as critical with significant changes ahead, requiring focus on these alternative indicators rather than traditional employment and inflation data.
Walk in the Pines #413
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Author curates weekly charts, quotes, and recommended reads including analysis on valuation and debt dynamics.
- Features curated listens and watches including content on capital allocation and historical economic crises like the Asian Financial Crisis.
- Provides actionable market commentary and thematic macro insights drawn from third-party research and media.
[Chart] Fed is a Go
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Fed funds rate should be around 5% based on standard models of inflation expectations and labor market conditions, implying 100+ bps of tightening ahead.
- Inflation expectations have anchored to a new higher range while the labor market is heating up again, creating dual pressure for rate hikes despite recent market hesitation.
- Global central banks have broadly pivoted to rate-hike mode (40%+ in hike cycle), making Fed action likely and raising questions about market correction risks given current easy financial conditions.
I Read All 17 BRICS Declarations. Here's What They Actually Built.
Santiago Capital Research
- Analysis of all 17 BRICS declarations reveals limited concrete achievements despite frequent media narratives about ending dollar dominance.
- BRICS summits produce audited documents and official statements that often fall short of revolutionary claims made in mainstream coverage.
- A critical sentence in an audited footnote from BRICS' own publications settles debates about the bloc's actual economic impact.
Money on sale
Irina Slav on energy
- Money-printing misconception: what people call money-printing is actually debt issuance, not literal currency creation which causes hyperinflation.
- Global sovereign debt market may be approaching oversaturation, evidenced by recent bond selloff headlines and market stress.
- Understanding the difference between stocks and bonds is essential for evaluating whether to be a shareholder or bondholder in current conditions.
The Eighteenth Brumaire
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- Combines historical and political metaphors with fiscal warnings and credit market signals to analyze late-cycle risks.
- Comprehensive multi-asset coverage across commodities, equities, credit markets, and emerging markets with 200+ slides in accompanying PDF.
- Examines fiscal dominance, monetary debasement, and Chinese currency internationalization as key macro themes.
The Free Ride on the Dollar is Over with Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist.
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- US ran 8% deficit-to-GDP in 2024, triple that of Canada, Europe, and Japan despite years of fiscal responsibility rhetoric.
- US market dominance over past two decades driven primarily by willingness to run large deficits that attracted global capital and talent.
- Tariff policy and potential fiscal changes may end the structural advantage that enabled US exceptionalism in equity markets.
The 1/1000 Year El NiƱo Almanac: 2026ā2027 Chokepoints
Craig Tindale
- Current El NiƱo event is unprecedented in 1,000-year baseline records, with eastern-Pacific temperatures 36.5% above pre-industrial levels, exceeding engineered tolerances of global supply chains and power grids.
- NOAA forecasts >90% probability of very strong El NiƱo through Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, with potential for millennium-grade physical extremes.
- No historical precedent exists for understanding impacts on modern global civilization, requiring novel frameworks for analyzing 2026-2027 economic chokepoints.
The Great Monetary Escalation
Capital Flows
- Public sector monetary crises now threaten the global financial system, contrasting with the private sector focus of the 2008 financial crisis.
- Policymakers face a forced choice between increasing fiscal spending for defense against China and maintaining fiscal discipline amid falling tax revenues.
- Germany's industrial decline from Chinese competition exemplifies how geopolitical shifts are pressuring government revenues and forcing tax increases on consumers.
Passivity
Macro Musings by Danny D
- 'Passive Easing' continues monthly through financial condition relief when the Fed doesn't hike, adding tightening pressure despite some FOMC dissent.
- Strong economic data (Redbook Sales, ISM, NFP) contrasts with political pressure against rate increases and declining foreign investor appetite for US Treasuries.
- Core CPI at the second decimal level may become the deciding factor for rate policy due to divided FOMC credibility, particularly regarding Waller's shifting position.
The right answer to the wrong question?
Rishi Mishra from On Another Note
- August payrolls beat expectations significantly, but may reflect artificial volatility from low labor force growth rather than true labor market strength.
- Unemployment rate at 4.1% sits between the Fed's longer-run projection (4.2%) and its lowest-ever projection (4.0%), indicating a healthy labor market.
- Author questions low odds of a Fed rate hike in September despite persistent inflation overshoot and Fed Chair Warsh's previous commitments to the 2% target.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Gold miners' all-in sustaining costs rose 16% year-over-year with 28 consecutive annual increases while global drilling hits lows.
- Global bond yields have reached highs not seen since 2008, with Japan's 10-year hitting 3% for the first time in 30 years.
- Multiple macroeconomic pressures emerging: record US diesel prices, data center power demand at 7% of US total, and Norway's oil fund cutting $80B in US Treasuries.
Politics · 14
The Secular Religion Thatās Eating the Democratic Party
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democratic Socialist faction (DSA) has grown from primarily urban primaries to near-victories in statewide races (Wisconsin governor, Michigan Senate).
- Socialist left wing operates with religion-like fervor and represents Democratic Party's response to institutional distrust, mirroring MAGA's rise on the right.
- While currently limited in electoral wins, DSA's energy and influence on party direction creates internal struggle for moderate establishment Democrats.
ANNOUNCING THE 2ND WASHINGTON, DC STRATEGY SEMINAR ā SEPTEMBER 14
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Second Strategy Seminar in Washington DC on September 14 focuses on Iran war and midterm political implications.
- Community expanded beyond Substack with seminars held in Washington, Chicago, New York, and Brussels.
- Event timing critical as Iran war enters new dangerous phase potentially intensifying domestic political conflict.
The Tyranny of the Tiny Majority
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- America's winner-take-all two-party system enables control of government with near-bare majorities (Trump won with 46-49.8% of popular vote), creating governance instability.
- Recent electoral history shows repeated power swings between Republicans and Democrats despite narrow popular vote margins and near-split legislative chambers.
- Tiny majorities produce governance dysfunction as narrow winners impose agendas without bipartisan consensus, a structural problem endemic to the current political system.
GLOBAL BRIEF LIVE: ROBERT PAPE & ADM JOHN KIRBY
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Iran has shifted from absorbing US strikes to taking military initiativeāattacking naval forces, threatening shipping, and using Strait of Hormuz as leverage.
- Central strategic question is whether the US can translate military superiority into desired political outcomes or if Iran can raise costs of escalation to unsustainable levels.
- Global Brief Live event featuring retired Admiral John Kirby explores whether the US can restore deterrence in an increasingly dangerous Iran conflict phase.
THE SUM OF ALL EUROPEAN FEARS: THE COST OF RESOLVE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- War in Middle East and threats to Strait of Hormuz are reshaping European strategic calculations, forcing Europe to reassess cost of defending versus preserving order.
- Russia's strategy aims to outlast Western resolve through sustained drone and missile campaigns against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure to cause financial exhaustion and political division.
- Historical precedent suggests terror from air may harden rather than break resistance, and rising costs of inaction may persuade Europe that acting defensively is necessary.
The Short Side of National Security
Craig Tindale
- Industrial readiness requires not just factory announcements but actual financing to operationalize equipment and qualify output for national security purposes.
- Financial institutions are profiting by shorting US defense contractors while government money subsidizes their factories, creating misaligned incentives against national security.
- Roosevelt's 1940 principle that public sacrifice for preparedness should preclude war profiteering is being violated by modern capital markets betting against strategic industrial capability.
Palestinianism continues to drag Britain down, as Burnham to fast-track sanctions on Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Britain is preparing sanctions on Israel over E1 building tenders, framed as protecting the two-state solution which the author argues was never a binding Oslo outcome.
- The author contends that whatever remained of two-state viability was destroyed by October 7, 2023 attacks, not current settlement policy.
- The piece criticizes British foreign policy as capitulating to a vocal minority and warns that appeasement signals weakness without satisfying demands.
š¬ New thread from Winston Marshall
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Winston Marshall is interviewing independent YouTuber Wesley Winter, who has faced multiple physical confrontations while filming protests in UK and Europe.
- Winter recently launched legal action following an assault in France by far-left activists during protest coverage.
- The subscriber chat invites audience questions for the upcoming interview discussion.
UK Foreign Secretary releases anti-Israel video as Labour government poised to sanction Israel
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- UK PM Andrew Burnham planning fast-tracked sanctions against Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria despite White House criticism.
- Announcement follows scheduling of by-election in Keir Starmer's former Holborn seat where Labour faces Green Party threat.
- Foreign Secretary releases anti-Israel video amid broader government shift toward Israel sanctions policy.
Weāre witnessing the start of Britainās Civil War
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Britain experiencing civil unrest with hundreds of protesters blocking roads at Dover and Portsmouth amid another migrant boat crossing.
- Police deployed with riot shields as organized anti-immigration movement gains visibility and online engagement.
- Weekend protests signal escalating tensions around immigration policy and social stability.
Is Islam compatible with the West?
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Winston Marshall hosting live debate on whether Islam is compatible with the West on 25th anniversary of 9/11.
- Debate features Maajid Nawaz and Raymond Ibrahim representing sharply different perspectives on Islam and Western values.
- Event tackles profound tensions between certain Islamic interpretations and Western traditions of free speech, secularism, and individual liberty.
US ambassador Huckabee accuses UK government of āJew hateā over Mililbandās claim Israel blocks medicine from Gaza
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- US Ambassador Mike Huckabee accused the British government of antisemitism over Foreign Secretary Miliband's claims that Israel blocks medicine from Gaza.
- Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar warned of punitive action against Britain if it moves against Israel.
- The accusation comes as British Jews mark the anniversary of a terrorist attack on a Manchester synagogue.
BBC Radio 4 invited me onā¦ to accuse me of ārage baitingā
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- BBC Radio 4 invited the author to discuss multifaith prayer rooms, then read a pre-prepared accusation of 'rage-baiting' sourced from the Muslim Council of Britain.
- The MCB has been shunned by successive UK governments due to concerns about links to Islamist movements and past positions on violence.
- The author details his original article and podcast discussion with Dr Andrew Crompton on the same topic.
#4 A Note From Ayaan: 9/11 ā Refusing to Forget
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Ayaan Hirsi Ali emphasizes the responsibility to remember both the attacks and what they revealed about Islamist ideology.
- An entire generation has no memory of September 11, placing the burden on those who lived through it to pass on accurate historical accounts.
- Western institutions are criticized for retreating into euphemism rather than plainly stating that Islamist terrorists carried out the attacks and sought to destroy the West.
Markets · 13
THE VIXāS EVIL TWIN
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- VIX is artificially suppressed at 14.5% (below 4-year average of 19.2%) because collapsed stock correlation masks elevated individual stock volatility.
- "Shadow VIX" concept reveals that if correlation normalized, implied volatility would be significantly higher, indicating hidden systemic risk.
- Low correlation benefiting index volatility is a temporary condition that could reverse sharply, creating danger beneath calm surface metrics.
Vietnam: not another China
Fred's Corner
- Vietnam offers more than China-plus-one story with strong GDP growth, industrial expansion, and rapidly rising exports.
- Emerging middle class driving second growth engine via domestic consumption and financial market penetration.
- Valuation attractive at 12-13x P/E with ~14% forward earnings growth; catalyst may be imminent.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US inflation data and ECB rate decision are key drivers this week; Fed in media blackout.
- Higher oil prices have limited impact on S&P 500 since 70% is tech/financials/healthcare; only ~3% directly exposed excluding Amazon.
- OPEC meeting, Oracle earnings, and Apple product event provide additional catalysts.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly lower as oil rallies; S&P down 25bp with 10-year yield at 4.80 and dollar down 24bp.
- International markets mildly lower with Japan down 1.6%, while China tourism flourishing and export growth rebounding.
- Key themes: US-Canada trade war escalation, Houthi attacks on energy sites, and Europe's AI competitiveness gaps.
Observations: Marking to market
Thematic Markets
- Two major views for the yearātighter Fed policy under Kevin Warsh and Trump's Iran 'win'āhave been challenged by time but some market calls were definitively wrong.
- Expectations for the economy, inflation, and broader market trends have held up better than specific policy and geopolitical predictions.
- Author is updating positions based on new information received over the past month and marking published views to market.
š¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Nico's trading commentary covers firmer opening calls across agricultural markets with wheat closing up 3 euros despite concerns of repeat weakness.
- Crude oil and yen corrections provide underlying support, with diesel prices at record highs for the season amid trade war uncertainties.
- Hedge funds are increasing bets on gasoline while Congress recesses, creating potential volatility in energy derivatives.
The Silver Turnstile Illusion: Tracking the 330 Million Invisible Ounces that Prevent Delivery Failure
Craig Tindale
- Silver experienced extreme volatility in 2025-2026, rising 145.9% in 2025 from $30 to $70.99 before spiking to $121.64 in January 2026.
- CME Group's sequential margin increases (9% to 11%, then 15%, then 18%) triggered a 30% price collapse in roughly thirty hours after the January peak.
- The article examines the mechanics of how 330 million invisible ounces of warehoused silver prevent futures delivery failures despite dramatic price swings.
Both Sides of āThe Xmas Tree of Deathā
Capital Misallocation
- Episode 84 of the Benny & The Squirrel show examines the 'Christmas tree of death' pattern and how the current resources cycle differs from 2006.
- Enhanced show notes and a weekly chartbook tracking top 30 LLM models are available to paid subscribers alongside market color and trade discussion.
- The newsletter provides AI capex tracking, WhatsApp channel commentary with PMs and traders, and morning market summaries for paying subscribers.
NVIDIA, the Circle at Work
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA equity placements generate returns nearly ten times their size at filed margins, creating circular investment pattern.
- The concern is circularity: NVIDIA invests in companies that buy its chips, similar to late 1990s telecom lending risks.
- Placement returns fall to one when counterparty would need to fail before buying tenth of committed amount.
The ECB Can Hike... But....
Global Macro Method
- ECB rate hike in September is 99.6% priced; the opportunity lies in assessing tightening beyond December.
- Market is pricing 67 basis points of cumulative ECB tightening by late April 2027, implying rates near 3% by June 2027.
- Key debate is whether Europe faces a durable domestic inflation cycle or a front-loaded shock that will ultimately weaken demand.
The Uninsured Dollar
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Foreign holders of US assets have hedged only 41% of currency exposure, the lowest since 2015, as insurance costs have lapsed.
- Strong August payrolls data (162K vs 56K forecast) briefly revived dollar support and rate-hike bets, but underlying structural drivers are shifting.
- Question remains whether recent dollar steadiness reflects fundamental strength or temporary reprieve before broader currency realignment.
So-Called āBessent Putā
AP Research
- S&P 500 finished slightly higher despite hawkish repricing after stronger-than-expected August payrolls (162k vs 55k consensus), with rates rising across the curve.
- AI semiconductor weakness persisted with Broadcom, Cisco, Samsung, and Nvidia falling despite strong revenue growth, as Q4 guidance disappointed.
- Energy outperformed with crude oil strengthening on US-Iran military conflict; petroleum products showed more significant price pressure than crude benchmarks.
Amazon is Polluted
Ted Gioia
- Author reflects on early Amazon investment purchased at $0.11 per share (adjusted for splits) in July 1997, now trading at $258.
- Despite holding shares for over a decade, the author sold too early and missed extraordinary long-term gains.
- The piece critiques Amazon's current state, suggesting the company has declined from its earlier mission to maintain comprehensive book inventory.
AI · 8
A Bad Day For Humans, a Worse Day For Humanity
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- OpenAI and Anthropic researchers achieved a breakthrough on the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem using AI-augmented teams.
- Corporate drama and credit disputes between labs overshadowed the actual scientific achievement and its implications.
- Tension exists between AI labs' competitive incentives and the broader value of transparent scientific progress and collaboration.
How to Use GPT-6 Astra, the OpenAI Model Jensen Huang Called AGI š¤
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra matches Claude Fable 5 on coding tasks at less than half the cost, directly challenging Anthropic's market dominance.
- Jensen Huang's AGI claims are dismissed by researchers and analysts, but the cost performance metric is the more meaningful takeaway.
- Cost efficiency in AI model performance is becoming a critical competitive differentiator beyond raw capability claims.
The Dawn of Self-Powered Neural Dynamical Systems?
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- A 2026 Peking University phase-change memristor neuromorphic chip represents a breakthrough in self-powered neural dynamical systems using triboelectric nanogenerators.
- The innovation addresses declining global EROEI by enabling distributed, ambient-energy-driven real-time edge computation with minimal external power input.
- These systems exemplify China's strategic response to thermoeconomic challenges and support complex systems sustainability in a high-exergy environment.
What Is Artificial General Intelligence?
John Aziz
- NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang declared that OpenAI's GPT 6 Astra has achieved artificial general intelligence, though his $5.5 trillion company stands to benefit enormously from such claims.
- Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus criticized Huang's pronouncement as lacking evidence and definitions, dismissing it as corporate takeover of scientific terminology.
- The article examines skepticism around AGI claims and notes Huang's obvious financial incentive to hype transformative AI capabilities.
You keep reopening the same decision at midnight because checking it costs a weekend you don't have. GPT-6 Astra iā¦
Nate from Nateās Substack
- GPT-6 Astra improves computer use and task persistence, lowering the investigation cost for major life decisions.
- Many important choices remain unexplored because the work required to evaluate them is too expensive in terms of time and attention.
- Expanded access to viable alternatives through AI capability increases real choice and potentially leads to richer life outcomes.
AI Is Creating More Jobs Than It Is Destroying
John Aziz
- The Economist estimates AI created ~1 million new jobs in America, far exceeding roughly 200,000 AI-related layoffs since mid-2023.
- Historical technology adoption patterns show job destruction is offset by unlimited human wants creating new industries and consumer demands.
- Mass automation productivity gains allow individuals with AI tools to vastly expand output, suggesting net positive employment outcomes as new AI-driven sectors emerge.
Sad to see Jensen Huang claim that AGI has arrived, with no evidence and no definitions
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Jensen Huang's AGI declaration lacks definitions, evidence, or benchmarking against established AGI criteria, appearing to be a corporate claim rather than scientific consensus.
- Astra performs comparably to competitors like Claude 5.1 in real-world applications rather than showing the quantum leap expected of genuine AGI.
- By conventional AGI definitions (autoformalization, reliable coding, and eight additional benchmarks), Astra still falls short despite incremental improvement over trend.
Executive Briefing: How to Check Work You Didn't Watch Get Made
Nate from Nateās Substack
- OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra enables fully self-directed agents that work toward goals for days without human intervention, fundamentally changing how computing operates.
- Users now provide imprecise goals and judge finished work containing hundreds of unseen decisions, creating liability for decisions they never directly made.
- Big organizations lose middle management layers as small firms become capable of complex work; users must shift focus to catching incorrect decisions post-completion.
Culture · 8
A Few Thoughts About Alex Gibneyās Musk Documentary
Lawrence from Lawrence Fossiās Substack
- Lawrence Fossi recounts his experience being interviewed for Alex Gibney's documentary on Elon Musk, spanning four hours of discussion.
- Gibney's credibility stems from Oscar-winning documentaries on Enron, Elizabeth Holmes, and Lance Armstrong, plus consultation with Tesla expert Ed Niedermeyer.
- The original story Gibney pursued involved Musk's attempt to get Fossi fired over his critical writing on Tesla's financials and business practices.
After racist comments about Andi Peters, Miriam Margolyes moves on to āfat peopleā and ācripplesā
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Miriam Margolyes faced backlash for racist and patronizing comments about ITV's Andi Peters on This Morning.
- Following her apology, she reportedly characterized her interests as encompassing 'black people, brown people, fat people and cripples,' drawing further criticism.
- The author suggests ignoring rather than amplifying her provocations, arguing her attention-seeking behavior depends on public outrage.
Healthy Pumpkin Cinnamon Roll Bars
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Alisa shares a recipe for healthy pumpkin cinnamon roll bars that are gluten-free, refined sugar-free, and dairy-free-optional.
- Each bar provides 6g protein and 3g fiber with ingredients blended together for a tender, gooey texture described as combining cinnamon roll and pumpkin pie.
- Recipe includes date cinnamon sauce and cream cheese frosting with monk fruit sweetener as a refined sugar alternative.
The Church That Survived Ground ZeroThe Sanctuary America Still Needs
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- St. Paul's Chapel's miraculous survival at Ground Zero symbolizes civilization's need to tend to the soul alongside material needs.
- 25 years after 9/11, the West increasingly relies on financial prosperity and technology rather than faith for security and meaning.
- Americans' turn to spiritual refuge after tragedy reveals deep human need for transcendent hope beyond material solutions.
āAdidas Partners with war criminalsā
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Examines Adidas's Single Shoe accessibility initiative and its choice of disabled Israeli athlete as brand ambassador.
- Explores the intersection of corporate social responsibility, geopolitical conflict, and brand partnerships.
- Investigates how a straightforward inclusion program became complicated by broader political narratives.
The BBC has been up to its old tricks ā again
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Details the author's experience of diminished BBC media appearances following October 7, 2023.
- Critiques BBC editorial practices and institutional decision-making around Israel-related coverage.
- Reflects on changing media dynamics and the author's shifting relationship with traditional broadcast outlets.
Who Goes to Heaven?
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Near-death experience research shows 80% positive and 20% negative accounts, with paradoxical findings that death-row murderers sometimes report heavenly experiences while devout believers report hellish ones.
- Traditional Christian doctrine linking belief and repentance to salvation doesn't align with empirical near-death experience data, suggesting alternative spiritual frameworks.
- The author's six-year investigation into afterlife experiences challenges conventional religious teachings about spiritual judgment and cosmic morality.
Roasted Mustard Chicken with BoulangĆØre Potatoes & Tarragon Jus: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Recipe for roasted mustard chicken with boulangĆØre potatoes cooked entirely in one pan to maximize flavor and minimize kitchen effort.
- Potatoes are sliced thinly without rinsing to retain starch that thickens cooking juices and creates natural body in the final sauce.
- Deglazed pan juices are combined with mustard and tarragon to create a simple sauce that ties the one-dish meal together.