★ Priority · 12
Arthur Brooks: The Great Battle Between Ambition and Happiness
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Arthur Brooks reflects on his 40+ year career traveling 48 weeks annually, drawing parallels to Ryan Bingham's character in 'Up in the Air' and the tension between ambition and happiness.
- The article explores how constant travel and achievement-focused lifestyles can paradoxically lead to both self-discovery and self-escape.
- Brooks examines whether the relentless pursuit of goals (like frequent-flier miles) aligns with genuine human flourishing.
Doing Little as Dispersion Infects Everything Across Macro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- High dispersion across commodities, equities, and currencies suggests the market is struggling to develop a coherent directional thesis amid summer liquidity thinness.
- Oil volatility persists despite geopolitical tensions (Iran ceasefire talks, Houthi blockade threats) because the market lacks confidence in underlying supply/demand dynamics.
- Asset picker markets with extreme dispersion can indicate unhealthy price discovery and potential liquidity risks.
6 - Strategy is How You Compensate for Natural Disadvantages
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Strategy compensates for natural disadvantages in competition, illustrated through personal sports examples and relentless tactical execution.
- In finance, currency risk represents an underappreciated and dangerous asset class that is stable long-term but subject to sudden breaks.
- Fund managers typically overlook currency dynamics and assume past patterns predict future performance, creating strategic opportunities for those who focus on currency analysis.
What All the New Fighting with Iran Is About. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Iranian ballistic missiles struck U.S. air base in Jordan killing two soldiers; U.S. sent additional F-16s and F-35s while launching new strike rounds on Iran.
- Iran has struck Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan targeting water desalination plants, power facilities, and military bases with all signs pointing to return of major combat operations.
- Michael Doran analyzes latest developments and questions whether major combat operations are truly coming next amid escalating regional tensions.
Exile as Evolution
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- The author reflects on personal transformation through the lens of Jewish spiritual tradition, connecting astrological cycles to the Hebrew calendar's period of mourning.
- Persistent internal visions and disruptions signal something essential trying to emerge, requiring both grief and forward vision simultaneously.
- Historical parallels show that destruction and exile can lead to rebuilding—the destruction of the Jewish temples led to diaspora and the creation of global Jewish communities.
Advancing One Crisis at a Time
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility damage and offline status creates supply disruption affecting 25% of Asian LNG under fixed contracts.
- Trader positioned in LNG and thermal coal to capitalize on knock-on effects from the Ras Laffan outage and European energy crisis.
- EU energy policy relies on hope rather than strategy; Qatar accounts for ~25% of Asian LNG vs only ~8% of EU LNG, creating asymmetric supply exposure.
becoming an option mixologist
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Expert decision-making relies on 'chunking'—recognizing patterns from domain experience—which allows fast decisions without conscious processing (e.g., Messi's walking strategy).
- Equal-weighting portfolio holdings by dollar amount rather than share count ensures risk is balanced when securities have different prices but similar volatility.
- Complex option structures can be demystified by understanding that all strategies are combinations of simple building blocks applied to specific market views.
DAMAGED GOODS.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- High-beta momentum stocks (Goldman's basket) have fallen nearly 40% from highs, marking the first break of the 200-day moving average in a year and worst monthly drop since the financial crisis.
- Adding momentum exposure after the best 50-year run presents extreme risk; historical data shows the medium-term cost of chasing momentum at this inflection is very high.
- BofA Fund Manager Survey shows investors most overweight equities since December 2024, despite Q1 2025 correction, signaling potential positioning risk and near-term bounce opportunity.
The Key Question on AI *
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Meme-rithmic Scale tracking meme tops and bottoms has delivered strong results with BABA +25%, Crude +22%, but Nasdaq -7% and SOXX -13%.
- Market punishes hubris; AI bulls' overconfidence about token usage and escaping poverty echoes past crypto FOMO tactics.
- Semiconductor sector showing signs of bubble bursting with potential for significant downside while broader market remains near all-time highs.
Tough Love: I Hate My Ex-Wife
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Letter explores difficulty letting go of rage toward ex-wife after divorce blindsided the writer five years ago.
- Writer has found happiness in new relationship and learned valuable lessons about love and personal resilience.
- Ongoing custody-sharing arrangement forces frequent interaction with ex-wife, intensifying unresolved anger and protective feelings for daughters.
FROM THE ARCHIVE - JAPANESE SELF CONSUMING REITS
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Japanese US REIT funds offer unsustainably high yields (17% vs 3.4% for US-based funds) while nearly guaranteeing capital destruction.
- The 20 largest Japanese US REIT funds manage $50 billion USD, with single largest fund (Shinko) holding $14 billion USD.
- Extra yield of 13.6% does not come from leverage but from structural design flaws that consume principal to pay dividends.
IS US ENERGY POLICY A DEAD END?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- US 'Drill, Baby Drill' policy shows short-term gains in North American gas production but long-term structural vulnerabilities.
- Renewable energy becoming dominant share of global investment while fossil fuel production surge appears unsustainable.
- European energy policy criticism overlooks data showing renewable transition is economically viable long-term despite near-term costs.
Macro · 16
Problems
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Rudy Havenstein critiques 'trimmed mean PCE' as a flawed inflation metric designed to exclude outliers like healthcare and other necessities.
- The post humorously illustrates the absurdity of Fed frameworks by comparing them to ignoring bills when they're inconvenient.
- William White's inclusion on Kevin Warsh's inflation task force is highlighted as a positive signal given his longstanding credibility on monetary policy issues.
Argentina Macro Pulse No.5: July 2026
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's government executed major institutional reforms during the World Cup final distraction: a 2026-27 financial program and Central Bank charter overhaul reverting to 1935 rules.
- The Milei administration achieved the cleanest inflation print in nearly a year alongside fiscal surplus and low country risk, signaling macro stabilization.
- Historically, Argentina's World Cup victories came amid severe economic crises; the current loss paradoxically coincides with improved macro conditions.
The right recipe for a more aggressive BoJ
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Home affordability and residential property inflation, rather than weak yen or rising prices, are likely to trigger faster BoJ rate hikes due to social stability concerns.
- The BoJ has historical precedent as a 'bubble buster,' with former governor Yasushi Mieno warning about asset inflation creating dangerous social imbalances in 1989.
- Rising property costs are creating affordability crises for young workers in Japan, similar to patterns that preceded previous policy shifts.
Mythic Atlas Report — Issue 03
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Growth Engine sits at Stage 4 Constructive with weakness concentrated in domestic demand (consumer, liquidity, housing all at zero/low readings).
- S&P 500's ten-month trend line is the pivotal lever; a close below it triggers a two-stage allocation cut directly to 33%, regardless of panel signals.
- Geographic allocation remains 100% ex-US international equity based on price-momentum call, not an anti-US bet, as European weakness (Germany, France, UK, Italy) drives the underperformance.
Weekly Macro Note: Technicals and Market Structure Deep Dive, A Look at Oil and Gas, Portfolio Strategy Update, an…
MacroEdge Research
- Asian equity markets (Korea, Japan) showing increased volatility and wobbling; week ahead focuses on geopolitical escalation and earnings from AI mega-cap players.
- Fiscal deficit surged in June; earnings from Alphabet and Tesla will provide key benchmarks on AI capex trends and consumer health in automotive sector.
- Wealth effect keeps auto sales elevated despite auto delinquency near 2009 levels and repos at historical highs, signaling fragile consumer credit conditions.
[Chart] Global Growth Outlook
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Global growth reacceleration has been driven by successive waves of monetary easing tailwinds that are now reversing.
- Central banks are pivoting back to rate hikes as lingering inflation risks persist.
- The macro backdrop will shift materially in 2027 as tailwinds turn to headwinds, altering growth dynamics.
- Current trends suggest increased monitoring of global growth sustainability amid tightening monetary conditions.
A great new book on the early history of the U.S. financial system
Bob Pisani
- Richard Vague's new book examines Thomas Willing, first president of the First Bank of the United States (1791), and his role in establishing America's financial system.
- Hamilton's trio of bold proposals—creating the First Bank, assuming Revolutionary War debts, and establishing a mint—fundamentally shaped early U.S. financial architecture.
- The First Bank, while not a modern central bank, enabled multi-state branching and lending to the federal government, laying groundwork for American financial institutions.
Be Aggressively Defensive!
Capital Misallocation
- Live discussion between macro analysts and David Dredge, veteran risk manager with 40+ years experience across major financial institutions.
- Focus on defensive positioning strategies amid complex economic and market conditions.
- Paid subscriber access includes show notes, slide decks, AI Capex Monitor, and WhatsApp channel with market color and trade ideas.
Bluff
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Markets dismissed softer-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data, recognizing this likely represents a temporary blip rather than new trend.
- FOMC governors leaning hawkish despite recent inflation data as oil rebounds 28% from recent lows, suggesting more inflation headwinds ahead.
- Low jobless claims and improving business sentiment offset by structural inflation forces; housing market remains stagnant due to mortgage lock-in effect.
Solidus
Martin Tixier from Macronomics Newsletter
- Comprehensive 200-slide PDF analysis covering commodities, equities, credit, and frontier markets with themes of fiscal dominance and monetary debasement.
- Content themes include Herstatt Risk, historical hubris (Solidus concept), and market dynamics across gold, energy, tech stocks, and emerging markets.
- Available across Telegram, X/Twitter, YouTube, and merchandise shop; author engagement through multiple community channels.
Kimi 3: AI Capex Apocalypse or a Buying Opportunity?
Capitalist-Letters
- Historical technology development cycles, like the V-2 rocket, required 10+ years and massive capital investment ($40B in today's dollars) despite breakthroughs.
- Soviet reverse-engineering of German V-2 technology took only 2 years post-WWII, suggesting learning curves can be dramatically shortened with existing blueprints.
- The framing appears to draw parallels between historical capex-intensive projects and current AI infrastructure spending, questioning whether massive outlays guarantee success.
The Week That Was and the Week That Is
Global Macro Method
- US inflation cooled in June (headline CPI -0.4%, core CPI unchanged, annual core at 2.6%) but crude oil jumped 16% on renewed US-Iran tensions, creating conflicting signals.
- Credit markets failed to price in the oil shock: high-yield spreads widened only 2 basis points despite the 16% crude rally, suggesting complacency.
- The mismatch between falling inflation data and rising energy costs will test whether market calm reflects genuine resilience or delayed repricing of geopolitical risks.
China Weekly Wrap: The Two GDPs Edition
Panda Perspectives
- China's Q2 real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% YoY (softest since 2023) while nominal GDP accelerated to 5.9% with positive deflator of 1.5%.
- Equity investors focused on nominal revenue growth benefiting from positive deflator after three years of near-zero readings.
- June activity showed mixed signals: IP +5.3% and retail +1.0% beat consensus, FAI -5.7% missed, while exports surged 27% and imports 36%.
Our Q2 2026 Letter & Look Ahead: Bedlam
Open Insights
- US-Iran war disrupted 20% of world energy supply and depleted inventories at unprecedented pace despite market claims it 'never happened.'
- June 17 MOU created fragile détente via performance-based economic inducements, allowing US to rearm while Iran sold trapped inventories.
- Skepticism warranted: financiers solving geopolitical conflicts through promises of economic relief after killing Ayatollah's family is fundamentally unsustainable.
Weekend Intelligence Brief: The Depth Of Field
Capital Flows
- Analyst's market stance and positions have shifted due to momentum trade unwind and carry trade risks.
- New macro models track relevant data points across all asset classes for global macro risk monitoring with weekly updates.
- Weekend Intelligence Brief contextualizes major economies and connects structural developments in markets, geopolitics, and macro fundamentals.
The Quality of Cash: What Has to Happen Next
Cape Fear Advisors
- Valuing cash requires distinguishing between present dollars held and future value that must convert to cash, a reconciliation the market prices last.
- The infrastructure buildout is financed through circular arrangements where the same investors buy from and invest in one another, obscuring true capital flows.
- Standard income and cash flow statements fail to capture the full picture of value conversion; alternative metrics like CBITDA are needed for proper analysis.
Markets · 14
The Fan
Garrett Baldwin
- A 24-year-old South Korean student qualified for VIP brokerage status and 500x leverage by tapping a button, receiving a promotional fan as a welcome gift.
- The brokerage offered extreme leverage with no testing or verification, enabling retail investors to bet 5x their capital on a single tap.
- The story reflects a broader systemic issue where young people facing housing unaffordability are pushed toward high-risk speculation framed as 'opportunity'.
Grizzle Growth ETF: 2026 Semiannual Letter
Grizzle Research and Quant
- Grizzle Growth ETF (DARP) returned 32.88% in H1 2026, more than triple the S&P 500's 10.21%, placing it in the 3rd percentile of large-cap growth funds.
- The fund's thesis—disruption at reasonable valuations—delivered downside protection in Q1 2026 despite broader market declines, reflecting valuation discipline.
- Fund managers view AI as a structural productivity shift exceeding any disruption in the last 30 years and are closely monitoring large capex spending behind the cycle.
Amazon's Earnings Never Stop Rising. Its Cash Flow Just Went Negative.
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Amazon's earnings are projected to rise every year from FY25-FY28 ($6.3B to $11.8B) while free cash flow turns negative $25 billion due to $200B capex spending.
- The divergence reflects accounting mechanics: capex is cash outflow but depreciates over 5-30 years, making earnings look inflected while cash flow is negative.
- AMZN's recent underperformance versus META and AAPL suggests the market has not fully agreed to hold an earnings inflection before the cash inflection materializes.
Borrowed Time
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Soft inflation prints and the liquidation of 1.2 million leveraged Korean retail accounts share a common mechanism: both involve borrowed money driving market moves.
- The South Korean leverage collapse demonstrates systemic risk when borrowing finances speculative positions across fractional leverage accounts.
- The article raises a critical question about what current leverage levels in American retail accounts signal about hidden systemic vulnerabilities in U.S. markets.
Momo No More
Andrew Sarna
- Technology momentum experiencing one of sharpest unwinds on record with Energy top-performing sector and Tech weakest performer.
- Morgan Stanley TMT desk highlights TMT Momentum down 40% after 17 trading days, the fastest and deepest decline at this stage with only two historical drawdowns exceeding this level.
- U.S. earnings season opening encouraging with inflation moving right direction following softer CPI/PPI data; many tech losers fell 15%+ but remain up 100%+ annually.
The Iran Forever War Risk
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Brent crude surged above $90 as US strikes on Iran continued and the Strait of Hormuz functionally closed, threatening higher oil prices.
- Oil price spikes reverse Fed disinflation progress and trigger rate repricing, with futures now implying 60% chance of a Fed hike as soon as September.
- Higher oil inflates costs, lifting long-bond yields above 5% and increasing the valuation hurdle that equities must clear, pressuring equity valuations.
Pre-August Storm
AP Research
- US tech stocks declined as stretched valuations and concerns over cheaper Chinese AI models (Moonshot's Kimi K3) challenged infrastructure capex economics.
- Banking sector delivered strong earnings with exceptional equity trading revenues, though modest share price gains suggest high expectations already priced in.
- Energy led gains from renewed Iran strike premium, while airline stocks faced headwinds from higher fuel costs despite strong travel demand fundamentals.
A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 19, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Semiconductor stocks including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix cratered on concerns that memory chip pricing has peaked and AI spending is being reassessed.
- Oil surged ~13% to $80.86/barrel as a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply, offsetting broader equity weakness.
- Major indices fell sharply—Nasdaq dropped 2.9%, S&P 500 fell 1.6%—marking the first real market crack in months as the AI trade broke underneath energy gains.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Silver hit extreme 30-year lows vs 200-day moving average, with technical targets ranging $37-$52.
- Gold/M2 ratio breakout and retest pattern seen since 1981; mining sector now only 1% of global equity market cap, lowest since 1900.
- Wealth concentration accelerating with top 0.00001% holding ~12% of national income (quadrupled since 2008); foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbing to near records.
Red Flag Alert – The 'Pricing' of Success for LeMaitre
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- LeMaitre Vascular ($LMAT) is a medtech roll-up focused on peripheral arterial disease treatment with open-surgery approach amid rising endovascular competition.
- Bull case positions LeMaitre as high-margin compounder with #1-2 market position, organic growth, operating leverage, and M&A funding capacity.
- Critical analysis suggests open-surgery narrative may obscure deeper operational and competitive challenges in the medtech space.
Bottom Fishing on LSE + Watchlist Update
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Central Asia Metals (CAML) offers attractive risk-reward with limited downside and significant upside potential due to dirt-cheap valuation.
- Company owns a low-cost Kazakh copper dump-leach operation and a chronically underperforming Macedonian zinc-lead mine.
- Technical setup shows price near the lower limit of a long-term rectangle, suggesting favorable probability for long positions.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 July 2026
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Cap-weighted S&P 500 held back by semiconductor weakness, while equal-weighted index shows strong uptrend with improving breadth.
- Semiconductor selloff displays bubble-bursting characteristics alongside unwind in Korean equities.
- Margin debt growth and seasonal headwinds present warning flags even as broader market breadth trends positively.
Market Analysis for the Week of 7/19
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Record dispersion between indices with NQ at range lows while ES remains elevated post-OPEX.
- Analyst raised cash on strong week-of-7/5 close and added hedges on Wednesday following downside risk outlined in prior weekly plan.
- Interesting market dynamics emerging from OPEX with unique characteristics potentially unseen in recent years.
The Week Ahead 7/19/26
Eliant
- Week characterized by record dispersion: Nasdaq down 400bps while small caps outperformed but still down 60bps; tech unwind continues.
- Upcoming week relatively quiet on economic data but earnings season finally kicks off as main event.
- Substack portfolio has netted 185.85% return since June 2023 with 81.3% win rate, significantly outperforming all major indices.
Politics · 14
The Erosion of Institutional Trust
Demography Unplugged
- American institutional trust has collapsed from 70-80% in the mid-1960s to just 27% in 2026, a 21-point decline since 1979.
- Partisan polarization has sharply widened; Republicans and Democrats now show divergent confidence levels depending on which party controls the White House.
- Trust erosion accelerated after Watergate and Vietnam, but the collapse has been continuous and particularly pronounced across Congress, media, and major institutions.
The Right Fights, The Left Folds
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- The author, a registered Independent, critiques the Left disproportionately for anti-Israel and antisemitic rhetoric while noting 90% of such vitriol originates from the political Left.
- Until October 7th, the U.S.-Israel relationship was a bipartisan priority with only fringe Congressional opposition; this consensus has since fractured.
- The author defends independent criticism by analogy: calling balls and strikes fairly regardless of team affiliation, even when the majority of problematic behavior comes from one side.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham: The Boy Who Lived ... in 10 Downing Street
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Andy Burnham's personal background in modest northern England shaped his focus on practical issues like buses, hospitals, and regional equity.
- His unconventional path and quiet determination contrasted with typical political trajectories and resonated with audiences on matters of fairness and opportunity.
- Burnham's advocacy for working-class concerns and regions north of the M25 defined his political identity.
The Thucydides Trap Is Being Read Backwards
Santiago Capital Research
- Jonathan Kirshner argues the Thucydides Trap quote about strong and weak nations has been misread for 2,400 years, inverting conventional realist interpretations.
- The piece examines what the famous ancient text actually reveals about rising powers and geopolitical dynamics in contemporary contexts.
- Santiago Capital has developed a recurring analytical framework around the Thucydides Trap, connecting it to January geopolitics, Iranian conflict, and broader strategic competition.
America is winning every battle against Iran. It is still losing the war.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US military has conducted nine consecutive nights of strikes across Iran, demonstrating overwhelming tactical reach and precision targeting capabilities.
- American death toll has reached 17 confirmed, with increasing casualties from Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional bases.
- Despite winning individual battles, the US faces strategic challenges in the broader regional conflict with Iran, suggesting tactical victories do not guarantee strategic success.
How Nigeria did IMF Reforms Without the IMF
Yaw from Yaw's Brief: Guns, Trade, Cobalt & Africa Beyond Colonialism
- Nigeria under Babangida (1985) faced external bankruptcy with foreign debt consuming 33% of export earnings and only 2 months of FX reserves.
- Babangida implemented structural adjustment reforms independently, avoiding formal IMF program despite near-insolvency conditions.
- Case study demonstrates alternative path to economic stabilization outside traditional IMF conditionality framework.
- Context includes falling global oil prices and hospital shortages of basic medicines during the crisis period.
The Moving Global Chessboard #2: The Ukraine War Is Moving Into Russia's Cities
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Ukraine has shifted from targeting Russian energy infrastructure to attacking commercial logistics networks, specifically striking Wildberries e-commerce distribution hubs allegedly used for drone production.
- Russia retaliated with 140 missiles and 120 drones on Kyiv, marking escalation in urban targeting and economic warfare.
- This strategic shift represents expansion from energy denial toward disruption of Russia's broader wartime economy and supply chains.
The Empire Files Back
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's government appeals judicial ruling that nullified Milei's citizenship reform decree moving naturalizations from federal judges to immigration office.
- The decree is the legal foundation for Argentina's citizenship-by-investment program, making the appeal fight existential for Casa Rosada.
- A 36-page federal appeal brief was signed personally by Argentina's top lawyer (Procurador del Tesoro), indicating the case's strategic importance.
Why Burnham Will Fail
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Andy Burnham's proposed plan to reindustrialize Britain, nationalize utilities, and raise top tax rate rests on flawed premise that complex economies can be designed.
- Burnham seeks to reverse 35 years of Thatcher-era policies and return to 1970s economic model, a period he only remembers from childhood.
- Hayek's critique of central economic planning applies to Burnham's vision; complex national economies resist top-down design despite good intentions and resources.
Chicago is home to the emptiest big-city school in the nation
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Frederick Douglass Academy High School in Chicago operates at 3% enrollment capacity (27 of 1,008 students), the emptiest big-city school in the nation.
- Chicago Public Schools enrollment collapsed from 600,000 to 312,000 students; one-third of school buildings sit at least half empty, creating massive inefficiency.
- School employs 28 full-time staff despite minimal student body, raising questions about resource allocation in declining urban school districts.
Six-Chart Sunday – All Trust is Local, 2026
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- Trust in major institutions has declined dramatically over 50 years, but trust in local institutions remains significantly higher.
- Global pattern shows people losing faith in remote institutions while gaining trust in closer, familiar organizations.
- Younger generations start from lower baseline of institutional trust, but familiarity breeds confidence across all age groups.
Facts on the Ground
The Brawl Street Journal
- Ukraine struck 116 vessels in Sea of Azov over nine days, but targeting civilian cargo may violate Geneva Conventions protections.
- International Maritime Organization condemned the strikes for endangering seafarers and disrupting global supply chains.
- Ukraine's justification that trade funds Russian war effort rests on legally questionable ground under international humanitarian law.
The Moving Global Chessboard #1: Russia and China Make Their Move
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Russia and China diplomatically shift blame for Middle East escalation to US military presence rather than Iranian aggression.
- Moscow and Beijing laying foundation for deeper political, economic, and military support to Iran if conflict continues.
- US military pressure inadvertently accelerating Eurasian realignment as China and Russia provide intelligence support to Iran.
Why the Pro-Palestinian Movement Needs To Be Pro-Peace
John Aziz
- Pro-Palestinian activism must reconcile opposition to injustice with commitment to ending bloodshed, as endless war perpetuates suffering across generations.
- Peace does not require Palestinians to surrender national aspirations or accept lives without dignity and political rights.
- Lasting solutions require political agreements that address core grievances rather than treating peace as capitulation.
AI · 9
China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Chinese AI models like Kimi K3, GLM 5.2, and Qwen have achieved parity with leading U.S. models and offer open-weight alternatives available for free local deployment.
- The emergence of competitive Chinese models undermines the business models of OpenAI and Anthropic by enabling price competition and threatens planned U.S. IPOs.
- The U.S. is unlikely to 'win' the AI race; instead, the focus should shift from competition framing to strategic adaptation and leveraging existing advantages.
Kimi K3 is downloadable. That doesn't mean you can run it.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Moonshot AI will publish Kimi K3 model files on July 27, allowing third parties to run and adapt the model independently, unlike OpenAI and Anthropic's closed approach.
- Open-weight Chinese models like DeepSeek R1 have sparked investor fears that cheaper capable alternatives could undermine expensive chip and data center economics.
- Moonshot's own deployment guide recommends at least 64 high-end AI chips, suggesting that computational infrastructure requirements remain a significant barrier despite open-sourcing.
The Prompt That Outlived Its Truth (090)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- The effective prompt in AI agents extends far beyond typed instructions, including repo instruction files, standards documents, coordinator instructions, and memory layers.
- Treating prompts as application code reveals that the developer's brief is the smallest piece of the actual instructional stack executed by agents.
- The series provides reader templates and demonstrates how long-lived prompts in agent shops function as code that executes continuously.
How to Build an AI Monopoly: The New Rules of Startup Strategy 🦄
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- U.S. private AI investment hit $285.9 billion in 2025, 23 times China's, with 1,953 newly funded startups and enterprise generative AI spending tripling to $37 billion.
- Cost of intelligence collapsing with Anthropic Opus now at $5 per million tokens versus $15 previously; performance matching costs falling by up to two orders of magnitude yearly.
- Open-weight models like GLM-5.2 now trail closed frontier by only four months despite massive startup funding, creating competitive pressure on value capture.
All Along the AI Watchtower
Citrini
- AI value-accrual debate centers on who captures value across the chain despite rapid token spend growth.
- Current market narratives about open-source alternatives, Chinese competition, and Kimi3 fail to explain the AI sector selloff.
- Leverage-fueled breakout of crowded AI trades created fragility that unwinds with similar vigor to its ascent.
- Energy shocks and geopolitical tensions like Iranian conflict don't fully account for underperformance of relatively insulated AI-adjacent industries.
AI Is Everywhere. But People Are Growing Colder Toward It
John Aziz
- Public enthusiasm for AI weakened in wealthy countries despite rising actual usage for email, code, image generation and analysis.
- 50% of American adults now say AI makes them more concerned than excited (up from 37% in 2021), while only 10% feel more excited.
- Common grievances include stilted chatbot voices, repetitive slop-language patterns, and concerns about jobs, privacy, culture and power.
- Paradox exists between growing utility and accessibility of AI tools versus declining sentiment as visibility increased.
Executive Briefing: How Microsoft, Bayer, and Discovery Use AI on the Data You Can't Upload
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Major corporations like Bayer and Discovery Bank are fine-tuning smaller AI models on proprietary data to process sensitive documents without cloud upload risks.
- Bayer reduced agronomic decision time from days/weeks to 30 seconds using fine-tuned Microsoft Phi model on product labels and regulatory data.
- Discovery Bank cut response times from 5-6 seconds to 1.5-2 seconds by training specialized models for financial language, SQL generation, and workflow templates.
Using ChatGPT 5.6 for knowledge work
Khe Hy
- ChatGPT 5.6 inside the new ChatGPT for Work product is fast, smart, and relatively cheap compared to more expensive models like Opus.
- AI engineers are leading indicators for how knowledge work will evolve across all professions.
- Google DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis proposes a FINRA-style regulatory framework for frontier AI development.
Moonshot is Chinese But Its AI Models Are From Another Planet
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Moonshot's Kimi K3 is the first Chinese open-source model to match frontier American models like Anthropic's and OpenAI's best offerings.
- China has compressed the previously estimated 6-9 month gap behind Western AI leaders through rapid capability advances.
- This represents a significant Chinese AI breakthrough comparable to DeepSeek's earlier emergence but with broader implications.
Culture · 8
The Connection Economy: Why We're Paying a Premium to Be Together
The Prof G Pod
- The experience economy is evolving beyond memorable experiences toward premium pricing for in-person connection and community.
- Disappearance of traditional gathering venues, rising loneliness metrics, and health impacts are driving consumer demand for live entertainment, sports, and theaters.
- Scott Galloway explores how consumers increasingly pay premiums specifically to be physically together with others.
The War on Natural Birth
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- England's caesarean birth rate has climbed sharply (14th to 9th among 42 comparable countries in five years), driven by maternal age, obesity, diabetes, and litigation fears among clinicians.
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues that birth has been increasingly redefined from a normal physiological process into a medical event requiring management, beyond legitimate medical pressures.
- The piece critiques a reframing of natural birth as inherently risky, contending this medicalization may not reflect actual clinical evidence.
Squash Blossoms: Fried and Braised
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Zucchini plants offer five distinct edible parts: stems, leaves, flowers, fruit, and seeds, with blossoms being globally versatile and prolific.
- Squash blossoms are used across cuisines—fried in the Americas, stuffed and braised in Greece and Italy, and added to tempura in Japan.
- Fried squash blossoms, especially with a small attached fruit, represent ideal summer cooking and can be incorporated into pastas, crackers, and other dishes.
The World Cup Final Was Spain vs Argentina. Not Palestine vs Israel.
John Aziz
- The World Cup final between Spain and Argentina was recast by commentators and politicians as a Palestine-vs-Israel proxy conflict based on the leaders' geopolitical stances.
- Spanish PM Sánchez's anti-Israel stance and Argentina's Javier Milei's alliance with Netanyahu fueled interpretations that had little to do with the actual teams or sport.
- The author critiques the exhausting habit of absorbing all global events—concerts, films, sports, awards—into the Israel-Palestine conflict as a universal political template.
The Ultimate Chicken Stock: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Pressure cooker method dramatically reduces chicken stock preparation time while improving extraction and gelatin content compared to traditional hob methods.
- Proper ratios of bones, vegetables, and water are critical to achieving rich, deeply flavored stock that sets like jelly.
- Choice of chicken cuts and vegetable roasting techniques provide variables to customize final flavor profiles.
Self-Trust Cannot Be Outsourced: 5 Principles for Making Promises You’ll Actually Keep
Sara
- Self-trust is built through repeated alignment between actions and stated commitments, not through external validation or affirmations.
- The brain tracks evidence of reliability through actual behavior patterns; every kept or broken promise registers as a deposit or withdrawal.
- Promises must be well-designed and realistic; vague or impossible commitments undermine self-trust even if technically 'kept' through rationalization.
The Mental Habit That Feeds Depression, and the Techniques That Actually Interrupt It
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Rumination—repeatedly returning to unchangeable thoughts about what's wrong and what it says about you—is the strongest predictor of depression onset, duration, and recurrence.
- Rumination differs from problem-solving (active, goal-directed) and reflection (purposeful); it combines repetition with passivity and self-focus rather than situation-focused solutions.
- Clinical interventions targeting rumination patterns show evidence of interrupting the depression cycle more effectively than affirmation-based approaches.
The Odyssey Is An Anti-Woke Masterpiece
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is anti-woke, not woke as anticipated by critics expecting progressive narrative drift.
- Casting of trans actress Ellen Page in minor deceptive character Sinon mirrors character's ultimate futility and descent to Hades.
- Director deliberately used symbolism to expose gender-dysphoric casting limitations rather than celebrate progressive ideology.
Trading · 6
Back in the Straddle - 2026 Edition
BUSHY™ and Acorn Weekly
- BUSHY portfolio re-entered SPY straddle strategy as of last Tuesday with energy headwind reversing to tailwind.
- Technology momentum experiencing sharpest unwind on record with TMT Momentum down 40% in just 17 trading days, fastest and deepest at this stage historically.
- Previous worst momentum unwind stage comparison was early 2021 at 29% decline; only dot-com (2000-01) and November 9, 2024 unwinds went deeper than 40%.
CLIQUET OPTIONS: WALL STREET'S INSURANCE POLICY AGAINST YOUR ETF BLOWING UP
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- GraniteShares liquidated its 2X LCID leveraged ETF despite only a -16.15% daily move, revealing hidden stop-out and counterparty risks beyond simple leverage math.
- Leveraged ETF assets under management exploded from $30 billion pre-COVID to over $200 billion currently, with disturbing growth in recent quarters.
- Cliquet options and hedging mechanisms on Wall Street balance sheets are struggling under the burden of massive leveraged ETF positions, creating systemic macro risks.
LEVERAGED ETFs: DAILY REBLANCING, ETERNAL CONSEQUENCES
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Leveraged ETFs use daily rebalancing to achieve stated multiples, which distorts their payoff profiles and creates decay in non-trending markets.
- Leveraged ETF AUM has grown from $30 billion pre-COVID to $200 billion, making these instruments an increasingly significant influence on underlying security prices.
- Daily rebalancing mechanics create a structural bid-ask spread disadvantage for ETF holders, exacerbating losses in volatile or choppy market conditions.
Sticky Summer
Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
- S&P 500 futures remain range-bound between 7300-7640 with key support/resistance zones at 7571-7578 and 7520.
- Recent volatility and failed channel holds (7532-7548) suggest oscillation between core support areas and potential tests of 7488-7521 zones.
- Oil showing steady buying interest and demand, presenting hedge opportunities amid equity volatility.
- Technical setups indicate potential opening conditions at core areas with odds to retest 7520 resistance at minimum.
Market Analysis and Trades for 7/20
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Major decision point identified for NQ index around OPEX and earnings, with implications for the remainder of the year.
- SPY and QQQ weekly analysis referenced as prerequisite context for daily trading decisions.
- Detailed trading analysis requires paid subscription access through Discord or Substack premium tiers.
ODAAT
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Portfolio drawdown in June set back fundraising efforts and required mental recalibration toward daily focus instead of long-term goals.
- 12-step program principle of 'One Day at a Time' applied to trading recovery: focus on next right trade rather than climbing back to high-water mark.
- Controlling immediate actions and executing well daily is the only achievable metric; future outcomes remain uncontrollable.