★ Priority · 10
BoJ in September: something new
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- Bank of Japan would conduct its first-ever rate hike in September in modern history, breaking a tradition of using the month as a quiet period for policy decisions.
- BoJ has guided markets to fully discount a September rate hike through speeches and official communications, positioning it as part of a quid pro quo for US currency intervention assistance.
- Market expects a second rate hike at December meeting as BoJ accelerates its incremental normalization process amid upside inflation risks.
Niall Ferguson and Tyler Cowen: AIpocalypse Now? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- AI safety researchers and company leaders are sounding alarms about the potential risks of rapidly advancing AI, with one researcher resigning from Anthropic over concerns about dangerous development speeds.
- Federal Reserve Dallas analysis illustrates the wide range of possible AI outcomes, from unprecedented prosperity to existential human risk, framing AI as the defining story of our time.
- Media coverage this week has intensified focus on the most alarming question: whether AI could pose an existential threat to humanity.
THE TREAURY BUYBACK IS TOO SMALL
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- BOJ's massive balance sheet expansion (USD 1.7tn to USD 7tn) forced Japanese investors out of JGBs by buying their holdings at elevated prices.
- Japanese investors hold large unhedged positions in foreign debt, particularly US Treasuries, with hedge ratios falling significantly even among institutional life insurers.
- Rising long-dated yields in Japan have reduced JGB values, but Japanese investors have maintained their unhedged US Treasury exposure despite deteriorating credit conditions.
The Machine Never Releases
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Examines consequences of declining fact-checking costs: when verification becomes cheap, historical records and past statements acquire tangible consequences.
- Explores the challenge of modern memory: societies that retain everything without understanding create unbearable information environments.
- Reflects on tension between preserving public records and practicing forgiveness, using marriage metaphor for how grievances accumulate without depreciation.
USD: equity market = trend, Fed credibility risk still small
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- US equity market flows over the past two years have been overwhelming and are the fundamental driver of USD strength, not traditional de-dollarization narratives.
- Relative stock market performance is the key metric for USD fundamentals, more important than relative interest rates which show lower volatility.
- US private markets are enormous and concentrated in high-quality growth sectors like AI, energy, and space, which justifies premium valuations for growth-enhancing investments.
after this post you will be sizing bets in your head
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Mental bet sizing frameworks can be applied to everyday life decisions beyond trading, enabling smarter risk allocation across various contexts.
- The author intentionally writes with unfiltered, parenthetical style layered with Easter eggs for both novice and experienced readers to serve dual audiences.
- Clear communication could expand audience reach, but maintaining stylistic integrity for multi-level comprehension is a deliberate trade-off choice.
The 60/40 Portfolio Re-Invented
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Traditional 60/40 bond-equity portfolio is broken due to sovereign bonds offering returns below inflation, now called 'Certificates of Confiscation.'
- Bonds historically provided inverse correlation hedge to stocks (e.g., +26% in 2008 while S&P fell -40%), supporting Ray Dalio's risk parity strategy.
- Author proposes reinventing the 60/40 portfolio by reconsidering bonds through a different lens given structural changes in monetary and fiscal policy.
Tough Love: My Brother’s Love Life Is Going Nowhere
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- New advice column draws from earlier piece on young Americans deprioritizing romantic love and marriage in favor of career and self-development.
- Author Abigail is publishing a book investigating why young people are avoiding dating and becoming cynical about relationships.
- Column emphasizes that life should not be backdrop to career and love should not be an accessory, but rather an adventure worth prioritizing.
SEVEN Critical Charts I'm Watching Here:
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Positioning is a minefield with crowded trades everywhere and consensus becoming dangerous across multiple asset classes.
- Stock breadth is near most oversold levels in recent years, setting table for potential upside rally once signals trigger.
- Funds just completed one of biggest deleveraging phases in a decade, historically correlated with subsequent rallies.
The Second Mouse Is About to Get the Cheese
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- ISM Services Prices Paid indicator signals CPI is about to rise sharply, with diesel prices breaking above $6 to all-time highs affecting shipping and food prices.
- Fed faces impossible choice: hard to hike into energy shock, yet hard to stay on sidelines if inflation is about to resurge.
- Stagflation conditions returning as OBBA tax stimulus rolls off, housing market continues weakening at 7% mortgage rates, and Boomer supply surge pressures affordability.
Macro · 15
Fed Watching
Andrew Sarna
- Rising oil prices pushed 10-year yields up 19 basis points in the US as energy markets continued to tighten, strengthening the case for Fed rate hikes.
- Core CPI in August was slightly firmer than expected at 0.29% monthly (3.5% annualized), with core services excluding housing at its highest level since January.
- Energy was the top-performing sector while healthcare and materials weakened; overall CPI report was considered a 'nothing burger' but may not provide Fed enough cover to hold rates steady.
Weekly Macro Note: FOMC Week First Look, Technicals Update, Inflation Problem
MacroEdge Research
- FOMC expected to raise rates by 25 basis points amid elevated embedded inflation and the largest energy shock since the Russia-Ukraine war began.
- Inflation running hot since May has dampened the tech and AI trade, with Democratic anti-data center messaging resonating with voters despite masked labor market weakness.
- Crosscurrents emerging in Fed messaging as data center construction expected to slow into 2027, with energy prices and commodities set to dominate bond dynamics through Q4.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Silver miners' annual free cash flow surged 4x above the last peak; physical silver ETF holdings increased from 781M to 803M ounces since mid-July.
- US 30-year yield hit 5.356%, the highest weekly close since 2004, with global government interest costs reaching a record $2.24 trillion.
- Copper reached an all-time record of $16,000/ton; ULSD NY Harbor hit an all-time high of $5.1577; ground beef at all-time high of $6.923/lb.
Walk in the Pines #414
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Weekly digest featuring charts, quotes, and curated reads on AI slowdown consensus and Trump's Venezuela oil deal.
- Listens include Jacob Shapiro on climate/El Niño and Macro Hive on AI applications.
- Content includes market watches and latest daily discernment updates for subscribers.
[Chart] Commodity Cycling
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Global economy has reaccelerated with pronounced strength in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and fixed asset investment, directly supporting commodity prices.
- Broad-based commodity strength reflects geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and upward inflation pressure, prompting the Fed to join the global rate-hiking cycle.
- Commodity prices serve as a crucial macro indicator for economic cycle stage and associated risk backdrop, not just inflation hedges.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Recent PPI and CPI data suggest rates markets may face a regime shift rather than simple mean reversion, with implications for risk asset rallies.
- Nominal 10-year yields near October 2023 peaks while real yields have crossed prior highs, creating ambiguity between continuation or structural change.
- Historical analysis of 10-year yields versus nominal GDP growth identifies three regimes, with current readings consistent with either anchored or shifting regime dynamics.
BoJ Preview: September Hike, Then Patience
Japan Macro Advisors
- Bank of Japan expected to raise policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 with a 7-2 vote, largely priced into markets.
- The key question for investors is the timing of the next rate hike, which depends on yen depreciation trends.
- Board member Masu Kazuyuki is the least hawkish among moderates despite media framing of his comments as hawkish-sounding.
FOMC Preview: Judgement Day
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Federal Reserve faces 'judgment day' with market pricing in rate hikes despite Financial Conditions Index (FCI) not yet tightening.
- Week ahead includes FOMC, BOE, and BOJ meetings plus key US data: retail sales, housing starts, manufacturing surveys.
- Supply chain risks remain prevalent in economic data, drawing parallels to 2022 dynamics that preceded previous tightening cycles.
Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | September 13, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Oil reclaimed $100/barrel as tanker war escalates in Strait of Hormuz; hot August inflation data locked market onto September rate increase.
- Treasury yields hit 52-week highs across the curve; S&P 500 fell 0.72% over the week to 7,662.72 after four straight declines.
- Equities struggled while crude ownership dominated the week with WTI up 10.2% and Brent up 10.1%, driven by geopolitical tensions.
Gold, Central Banks, Markets, & US Treasury Debt
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Gold ETF (GLD) and mixed-asset strategies (GDE) offer different approaches to gold exposure amid broader discussions of central bank policy and monetary frameworks.
- The Fed's gold certificate valuation at $42 per ounce remains unchanged despite decades of economic evolution, representing a potential repricing opportunity.
- Concept of 'Bretton Woods 2.0' involving China's Shanghai payments and gold warrant systems reflects evolving international monetary arrangements alongside traditional gold hedging.
China, Gold And Crypto
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Monetary inflation hedges like gold and crypto are becoming essential under 'Capital Wars' regime where nation states subordinate monetary policy to fiscal funding needs.
- Keynesian dominance describes a governing philosophy of structurally larger state sector with permanent elevation in borrowing, making monetary inflation a policy tool rather than error.
- Financial repression suppresses savings returns; monetary inflation destroys accumulated wealth itself—a distinction that necessitates asset allocation focused on purchasing power preservation.
China Weekly Wrap: The Perception Gap Edition
Panda Perspectives
- Gap between official economic data showing producer price growth, export gains, and capital injections versus lived experience of weakness in Chinese markets signals structural disconnects.
- Market reaction to strong macro data was sharply negative with 94% of A-shares falling, HSI down 3.3%, and volatility rising, reflecting investor skepticism of headline numbers.
- Chip fab sector shows genuine momentum while broader economy feels stagnant, creating perception gap that explains more about Chinese markets and policy than any single data point.
The Week That Was and the Week That Is: Stocks Bounced. The Squeeze Didn’t.
Global Macro Method
- S&P 500 recovered 0.86% Friday but finished the week down 0.8%, with Fed hike probability rising to ~90% despite equity gains.
- August CPI held steady at 3.4% annually with gasoline up 3.9%, while core inflation edged down from 2.5% to 2.4% year-over-year.
- Market is accepting Fed tightening without becoming more growth-optimistic; underlying pressure on households and valuations persists despite resilience.
The Gap Between Map & Territory
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- UK gilt yields surged from 4.7% to 5.3% and energy costs doubled under PM Andy Burnham, creating a code-red crisis for an energy-importing, highly-indebted nation.
- Burnham's dismissal of bond market constraints and Miliband's clean energy security doctrine have proven economically destabilizing.
- Gap between political ideology and market reality is widening as the UK faces simultaneous energy and fiscal pressures.
How a Healthy Society Falls Apart
Ted Gioia
- The author reflects on how his parents' Depression-era trauma shaped their economic pessimism and focus on preparing for collapse.
- Society's health deteriorates when generational anxiety shifts from preparation to fatalism, replacing optimism with survivalism.
- Understanding how societies fall apart requires examining the psychological underpinnings of collective decline, not just economic metrics.
Markets · 14
Nose Clip and Chain Mail Glove
BUSHY™ and Acorn Weekly
- BUSHY portfolio delivered strong week driven by energy-related assets which are now being trimmed, with year-to-date performance ahead of S&P with only 60% realized volatility.
- Portfolio positioning focuses on rates ahead of FOMC meeting and potential AI-related market implications from weekend 'psy-ops' on frontier LLM training.
- Strategic pair trade (RSP/QQQ) has pulled back; analysis includes portfolio review changes and upcoming adjustments to positioning.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P 500 trading lower on AI slowdown headlines as safety concerns from AI lab leaders reverberate through equity markets.
- European markets declining with tech and industrials sectors dragging; Asia mixed with Japan gaining 64bp while China, Korea, and Hong Kong showed varied results.
- Key themes include AI safety fears, widening Middle East instability, and weak China loan demand amid rising yields (10-year at 4.96%).
Bonds, Sinking Bonds
AP Research
- S&P 500 fell early in the week before a Friday rally; only 39% of members trade above their 50-day moving average.
- US Treasury curve experienced bear steepening with the 30-year yield reaching 5.373%, the highest since 2007, pricing in inflation shock over credibility restoration.
- Energy was the sole sector reliably in green with Brent and WTI gaining 5.9% and 6.7% respectively, while industrials and consumer discretionary bore the brunt of selling.
💬 New thread from Eliant
Eliant
- Post-Labor Day week saw lower volume but continued volatility from Middle East tensions pushing crude above $100/bbl and 10Y yields higher.
- Nasdaq outperformed S&P 500 (down 50bps) and Russell 2000 (down 240bps) but still closed lower for the week.
- Upcoming FOMC meeting with rate markets pricing in a hike as certain; retail sales data also expected this week.
The Week Ahead 9/13/26
Eliant
- Middle East tensions between US and Iran drove crude above $100/bbl again and pushed 10Y yields higher in a lower-volume post-Labor Day week.
- Nasdaq performed best but still closed down 50bps for the week; Russell 2000 was worst performer at -240bps, reflecting risk-off sentiment.
- Eliant's portfolio has achieved 203.01% returns since June 2023 versus Nasdaq +100.63%, S&P 500 +83.13%, and Russell 2000 +65.7%.
The Repo Dark Spot: Part I
Conks
- Fed's removal of Reverse Repo Operations liquidity injections coincides with major banks pulling back from repo due to higher capital costs from soaring equity prices.
- Q1 2027 expected to mark start of new easing era as banks re-lever and US debt limit triggers Treasury General Account drawdowns flooding banks with reserves.
- Multiple competing catalysts in money markets create complexity for overnight rates and broader financial stability through year-end and into 2027.
NVIDIA, A Little Bit of Money In
Cape Fear Advisors
- Jensen Huang describes NVIDIA's financing model as non-circular because they invest a small amount upfront and receive significantly larger returns.
- The analysis examines specific equity instruments between NVIDIA and its GPU-buying customers to understand the financing mechanics.
- An 'AI native' company is defined by Huang as one spending two-thirds of raised capital on compute, revealing customer concentration in the space.
The Case for adding bonds - The 60/40 Strikes Back.
Damped Spring 101
- Four conditions justify owning long-term government bonds: adequate risk premium vs. cash, real interest rates, inflation compensation, and upside optionality.
- US bond market currently meets three of four requirements, while European and Japanese markets have only recently caught up.
- Author has increased exposure to both bonds and equities in rest-of-world developed markets following improved valuation dynamics.
Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup
Capitalist-Letters
- Applies Peter Lynch's principle of investing in companies whose products you use and see ubiquitously in daily life.
- Uses personal observation of payment terminal dominance in Italy to identify concentration opportunity in banking sector.
- Demonstrates successful stock picks (Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Amazon, Robinhood) by focusing on companies that pervade lifestyle and are loved by users.
The Week That Matters (7th-11th Sep, 2026)
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- Stock ownership has become 'opium of the masses,' giving psychological sense of economic participation even as real wage growth stalls.
- Fractional share ownership and tokenized stocks make equity participation feel accessible, but the underlying question remains: where is the productivity growth?
- Debate over Robinhood's tokenized stocks reflects tension between financial engineering and real economic value creation in modern capital markets.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 13 September 2026
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Stocks showing pre-Fed jitters with S&P 500 slipping, particularly in equal-weighted terms, ahead of upcoming Fed decision.
- Breadth deteriorating steadily across the board; correlations, corporate bond spreads, and volatility levels all suggest caution.
- Growth has peaked versus value, semiconductors are stagnating, and liquidity headwinds are forming, though bearish setup could resolve bullishly if certain conditions align.
A Chart Party is Bigger in Texas...
Garrett Baldwin
- Author returned from week-long hiatus producing Getting Started series for paid subscribers with extensive on-air performance content.
- Money Printer Pro subscribers gain access to lessons on liquidity, momentum, insider buying, trend investing, and deep value strategies.
- Tim Melvin discusses differentiated valuation metrics for banking, insurance, and real estate sectors versus traditional frameworks.
The Wrap – Barometers of Market Stupidity, the AI Edition.
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Berkshire Hathaway's complex structure may be causing underperformance relative to the broader market despite decades of perceived excellence.
- Wall Street's 'too smart by half' problem: brilliant financial engineering (Enron, LTCM) masks underlying weakness and ultimately leads to catastrophic failure.
- AI hype exhibits similar patterns of overvaluation disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting a speculative bubble in technology stocks.
Plumbing Feed: Adventures at the Long-end of the Curve
Conks
- Treasury buybacks temporarily suppressed yields but primarily drove swap spread widening rather than delivering the hyped market relief.
- UST-SOFR spreads widened due to reduced illiquid supply benefits for swaps and Fed policy shifts toward easing under Warsh's leadership.
- Recent bond market moves reflect technical mechanics (dealer market-making, SLR relief) more than fundamental economic changes from buyback programs.
AI · 10
AI Is Writing the Internet
Demography Unplugged
- Over one-third of new webpages now show signs of AI authorship, up from just 1% before ChatGPT's release in November 2022.
- AI-generated text has introduced distinctive linguistic patterns including 63% more Oxford commas, 93% more em dashes, and 171% more negative parallelism.
- Pew Research analyzed 10,000 random webpages monthly using AI-detection tools to track the rapid proliferation of large language model-generated content across the internet.
Very Negative Forces
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- AI safety warnings from Anthropic, OpenAI, Elon Musk, and DeepMind leaders triggered sharp selloffs in AI stocks, with SoftBank down 13% and Asian chip stocks taking significant losses.
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was shut down by drone strike; Brent crude rose 2.5% to $107 as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Gulf.
- Trump dismissed AI safety concerns as 'very negative forces,' while Federal Reserve chair Powell appears on collision course with Trump over inflation and rate policy.
💬 New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Burry argues AI cannot be meaningfully slowed down, dismissing recent safety commitments by OpenAI and Anthropic as perception management ahead of IPOs.
- Language models without reason-generating capacity fail to achieve true understanding; frontier advancement increasingly drives sophisticated language model development.
- The capacity for reason paired with language is required to unlock understanding that ultimately transcends linguistic constraints.
Two cheers (out of three) for Dario Amodei
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Dario Amodei's essay advocates for pacing AI development, with tentative support from Sam Altman and Elon Musk, though implementation remains unclear.
- Gary Marcus praises the commitment to transparency and slowing acceleration but warns against hyperbolic framing in AI discourse.
- Skepticism remains about whether companies will put real teeth into agreements or whether government enforcement will be substantive.
Executive Briefing: Ordinary AI Got 280x Cheaper. That Is Not the Same as Reaching the People Who Need It.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- AI capabilities have become 280x cheaper, yet accessibility gaps remain for populations that would benefit most from these advances.
- Dario Amodei's 'We Must Pace the Frontier' proposes outside evaluators, international coordination, and governance to align AI development with safety.
- The US-China AI competition shapes how AI development will be governed and whether abundance benefits will reach communities beyond wealthy nations.
- Questions of human flourishing versus harm depend on implementation details of safety frameworks and corporate compliance willingness.
Your agents need a company brain
Khe Hy
- Stripe built an internal 'company brain' agent with organizational context, skills as a platform, and human-in-the-loop controls for enterprise use.
- Salesforce made its UI optional; Systems of Record combined with MCPs represent the future of SaaS rather than traditional chat interfaces.
- Pre-AI data architecture and internal security boundaries are critical for deploying agents effectively within enterprise environments.
Six-Chart Sunday – The End is (Always) Near
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- AI researcher Jacob Coxon's viral X post warning of catastrophic risks from leading labs reignited Washington's AI safety debate and prompted major calls for action.
- Sam Altman ruled out 2026 OpenAI IPO and Dario Amodei published 'We Must Pace the Frontier,' with both executives endorsing a slowdown in AI research.
- Historical pattern shows technology catastrophe warnings are sometimes overwrought but others catalyze constructive safeguards; AI regulation debate now centers on finding balance.
Could rogue agent swarms take over the entire internet in the next six months?
Gary Marcus, Nathan Hamiel, and Zack Korman from Marcus on AI
- Dario Amodei's claims about rogue AI agent swarms taking over the internet in six months are vague and implausible according to Gary Marcus's analysis.
- Taking down or controlling the entire internet is technically extremely difficult and historically regarded as unfeasible by cybersecurity experts.
- Amodei's essay conflates hype-farming about disease cures and abundance with legitimate AI risks, lacking specifics that would enable meaningful evaluation.
Millennium Pastimes
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- OpenAI's unnamed model solved the forced version of the Navier-Stokes equations, one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, just 24 years after the challenge began.
- AI's rapid breakthrough on century-old mathematical puzzles signals a potential end to traditional mathematical research as a human discipline.
- The speed of AI problem-solving in math raises questions about the future of intellectual pursuits designed to occupy entire fields for millennia.
YWR: 10 Nvidia GTC Takeaways
PAIDErik@YWR
- Nvidia has evolved from a chip company into a systems integrator designing entire $100 billion data center ecosystems, representing a new industrial revolution comparable to AI token factories.
- Jensen Huang is establishing self-reinforcing network effects by financing cloud providers and construction firms, creating a Toyota-like supplier ecosystem where Nvidia controls the entire value chain.
- The scale of modern AI infrastructure requires rethinking traditional industrial models, with single data centers costing 20x more than major sports stadiums.
Politics · 9
Protecting Your Portfolio in a Troubled World
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Long-term institutional arrangements including dollar reserve status, US military primacy, and the two-party system are not permanent laws of nature but fragile arrangements that evolve to protect themselves.
- Modern drone and missile technology has neutralized traditional power projection, as evidenced by Iran's capabilities, fundamentally changing the balance of military power.
- World is trifurcating into three blocs: US and Western Hemisphere, China and Asia, and Russia-anchored Eurasia, with Europe caught between and reassessing Washington's conditional security guarantees.
The True Impact Of 9/11
John Aziz
- The author argues 9/11 marked the beginning of Western decline, with measurable collapse in American pride and confidence metrics since 2001.
- Long-term pathologies and loss of Western supremacy confidence may be as significant as the immediate aftermath of the attacks.
- Historical analysis shows the 25-year anniversary provides perspective on damage beyond the physical destruction and subsequent wars.
#4 A Conversation with Charlie Weimers and Emily Schrader
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Charlie Weimers and Emily Schrader discuss Western defense against Islamism in context of 9/11 legacy.
- Conversation covers lessons from 9/11 that the West failed to implement and current priorities for preserving Western civilization.
- Panel explores relationship between past security failures and contemporary threats facing the West.
#4 September 11 and the Cowardly Refusal to Name Islamic Terror
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- CBC's Director of Journalistic Standards ordered staff to avoid the word 'terrorist' even when describing September 11 attacks, using euphemisms like 'hijackings' instead.
- Hirsi Ali argues this linguistic evasion represents ideological capture and an Orwellian rewrite of history that undermines civilizational clarity.
- The West cannot confront Islamist terrorism effectively without naming it plainly, a principle Hirsi Ali has emphasized for years.
Brandon Johnson’s failing record on ethics reform
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson's administration has passed zero significant ethics reforms in nearly four years despite corruption concerns.
- Mayor frames ethics narrowly as equitable distribution of government services rather than preventing conflicts of interest and abuse of office.
- Analysis by Chicago Policy Center documents the gap between Johnson's re-election announcement and tangible anti-corruption achievements.
Macklemore, Pink, & The Poisoning Of The Internet With Anti-Jewish Bullshit
John Aziz
- Anti-Israel discourse is increasingly permeating non-political internet spaces and comment sections across diverse subjects.
- Celebrities like Macklemore and Pink have amplified antisemitic rhetoric under the guise of anti-Israel activism.
- The normalization of antisemitism in mainstream digital spaces reflects a broader toxification of online discourse.
The America Charlie Kirk Died Defending
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Charlie Kirk was assassinated in September 2025; his warnings about Democratic Socialist influence are now materializing across major U.S. cities.
- Democratic Socialists of America have moved from fringe activism to wielding political power in New York, Chicago, and Seattle.
- Kirk's ideological legacy endures despite his death, representing ongoing ideological struggle over America's direction.
The Borders We No Longer Believe In
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- The Ceuta migrant crisis revealed how Western societies dismiss legitimate sovereignty concerns as racism while avoiding confrontation with hostile state actors.
- Newly disclosed Spanish intelligence showed Morocco detected and encouraged the mass crossing, weaponizing migrant desperation as political leverage.
- The West's refusal to acknowledge these patterns reflects a deeper failure to defend borders and cultural cohesion without shame or accusation.
HOLLYWOOD ENDING?
The Oracle by Polymarket
- The 2025 NFL season's shocking upsets—Kansas City missing the playoffs, Seattle and New England winning it all at sub-2% odds—have reset expectations for 2026.
- This year's season will test whether 2025 represented genuine structural change or statistical regression toward traditional NFL power hierarchies.
- Early matchups like Seahawks-Patriots (both near 8% championship odds) suggest sustained unpredictability rather than return to established order.
Energy · 8
Oil and Gas Research - Weekly Energy Macro Note - September 13, 2026
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- WTI moved from mid-80s to fundamentally and technically positive levels with pattern potential for higher prices.
- No material signs of demand deterioration across the board; author maintaining 'patience through October' strategy as Hormuz tensions and Houthi-Saudi situation may warrant higher price targets.
- SPR releases remain the only tool available to constrain prices, with the final release being carefully timed due to already low global inventory levels.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Agricultural sector opening on oversold bounce amid bullish weekend developments in gasoil and diesel markets.
- Middle East attacks and East-West pipeline outages support tightness in refined products; WTI could test $105 resistance early week.
- Diesel and gasoline shortages becoming political liability heading into midterms; product tightness expected to spread across South America and Southeast Asia.
LNG Update
Grizzle Research and Quant
- US LNG output surged in 2026 with 3-4 billion cubic feet above 2025 levels, with further growth expected from projects launching through end of 2027.
- Data center AI demand is tracking or exceeding the industry's 10 Bcf growth forecast, making it a critical variable for natural gas prices through the decade.
- Global gas prices remain elevated above Iran conflict highs, with Strait of Hormuz reopening repeatedly delayed, creating sustained LNG pricing arbitrage opportunities.
Deep Value Stock with Upside to Surging LNG Prices
Bison Insights
- European natural gas prices (TTF) have surged 10x above US Henry Hub levels and could spike further if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.
- Straits of Hormuz disruptions restricting fuel-oil switching and low European gas storage set up conditions for another potential price super-spike.
- A European-focused gas and oil company trading at a discount to peers offers both upside exposure to TTF price spikes and downside protection through diversified assets and cash flow.
You Never Own Enough Vessels…And Enough Tungsten
PAIDMihail from TheOldEconomy
- Tanker shipping market has surged 30x in recent quarters driven by geoeconomic disruptions, exhibiting classic signs of transition from late enthusiasm to early mania.
- Historical comparison to 2001-2009 dry bulk boom shows similar pattern: explosive growth (Capesize rates reached $240k/day in 2008) followed by GFC collapse to under $2k/day, warning of boom-bust cycles.
- Current LNG carrier order book at 40% capacity is significantly more conservative than historical precedents, but event-driven macro opportunities remain potent in shipping and mining sectors.
Will Rosebank and Jackdaw Really Destroy £170–483bn of Value?
David Turver from Eigen Values
- Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas field approvals were overturned in 2025 over Scope 3 emissions concerns, despite initial 2022-2023 licensing.
- New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh promised 'pragmatic' approach to North Sea development.
- Decision on both fields' approval has been delayed, allegedly due to poor optics of approving new oil/gas licenses during heatwave and may be postponed further.
Oil: When the Invisible Becomes Visible
Open Insights
- Oil prices have surged as Iran-US tensions escalate, with visible inventory draws of only 3-4M bpd masking 5-7M bpd of unaccounted demand destruction.
- Current demand destruction levels (5M+ bpd) would require COVID-scale economic collapse, yet flight activity remains above year-over-year levels.
- Market complacency over Strait of Hormuz disruption risks suggests hidden supply/demand imbalances that could rapidly reprrice oil markets.
Third Time’s a Charm!
The Blind Squirrel
- The author revisits the AI-driven power demand thesis for utilities after two previous failed predictions, suggesting market extrapolation may have overextended the narrative.
- Traditional regulated utility companies face structural challenges in capitalizing on AI data center power demand despite clear growth in electricity requirements.
- The electricity industry faces multiple headwinds beyond just accommodating new AI power consumption, limiting mainstream utilities' ability to benefit from the trend.
Trading · 6
Mid September Flips and Contract Rollover!
Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
- Mid-September week features multiple flips on the 15th coinciding with contract rollover and FOMC decision, with contract roll adjusting roughly 66.50 points.
- Calculated trading ranges align with overhead targets of 7722-7728-7733-7738, with core risk areas positioned at 7587-7588.
- Market structure shows bull neutral open with potential for two-directional price action before mean reversion expected by week's end.
Market Analysis and Trades for 9/14
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Weekly market analysis covering SPY, QQQ, and GLD with specific trade setups for Monday's contract roll.
- December and September contract liquidity will shift during the week, with planned trades applicable to overnight sessions.
- Recent ETH trading sessions have shown strong performance with excellent trade opportunities.
- Article references prerequisite materials including the Starter Kit and weekly market analysis reports.
El Nino Part 2: The Trades
Nico from AiQ
- El Niño trade narrative relies heavily on 'vibes' with traders piling into long softs/short ags based on expectations rather than realized weather patterns.
- Global weather has not yet exhibited actual El Niño characteristics; current commodity rallies driven more by Black Sea disruptions and supply constraints.
- Traders building El Niño into mental models and citing it as cause while the phenomenon itself remains unrealized, creating potential narrative risk.
Statistical analysis of the 10y US yield
The diary of a speculator
- S&P 500 regime switching model indicated time to sit out in early July; author took exploratory long positions from August 1 onward.
- Trading activity since August 1 generated +191 basis points, with 8 trades: 4 losses, 2 breakeven, 2 profitable (IBIT and HOOD positions active).
- Model uses SPX trend, momentum, breadth, credit spreads, sentiment, and other features to determine optimal risk/reward trading regimes.
Market Analysis for the Week of 9/13
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- NQ and ES contracts are rolling this week with FOMC decision on Wednesday expected to improve price action afterward.
- Overnight sessions have been strong while cash sessions weak; Discord access provides daily/weekly trade setups and real-time commentary.
- Trading strategies target overnight opportunities where setups hit nearly every day.
🐍 Build your own trading strategy with Python
Jason from PyQuant News
- Successful trading doesn't require constant activity; the featured strategy trades only once per month using a single price comparison rule across five ETFs.
- Beginners waste months pursuing complex minute-by-minute strategies they can't execute, while professional traders focus on simple monthly adjustments and risk measurement.
- The tutorial demonstrates building a functional trend strategy in Zipline using Python, emphasizing simplicity and testability over indicator-stacking.