★ Priority · 13
TGIF: The Oyster of My Eye
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- The Free Press July Supper Club event is expanding to 38 cities across four countries as reader-organized meetups prove unexpectedly popular.
- Author reflects on Sun Valley as personal destination, characterizing market efficiency as naturally aligning life outcomes with individual merit.
- Community-driven dining events have become a successful venture with overwhelming demand for expansion and repetition.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Japan's finance minister called for massive pension funds to increase domestic asset allocation, triggering yen strength and bond yield decline.
- Government Pension Investment Fund allocation changes could have broad implications beyond Japan given its $1.2 trillion position as largest foreign holder of US Treasuries.
- Strategic shift in Japanese capital allocation signals potential major reorientation of global asset flows and currency dynamics.
Katayama is reading the BoJ Watchtower
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is pushing for greater home bias in pension fund allocations, particularly through GPIF increasing JGB holdings to 35% as yields now compensate for risk.
- BoJ's Yield Curve Control policy (2016-23) caused a 50% yen devaluation and needs to be reversed through institutional investor capital reallocation.
- Author claims Katayama is reading his reports and acting on the recommendations for domestic bond reweighting to support yen recovery.
Christopher Caldwell: Inside Donald Trump’s Ruthless Return
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's 'Regime Change' sold 300,000+ copies in first week, fastest-selling nonfiction hardcover of 2026.
- Book argues Trump's return marks unprecedented expansion of executive presidential power and transformation of the office.
- Christopher Caldwell provides conservative analysis of Trump's second term and the book's central thesis on executive authority.
Picking Matt and Joe's Brain on Coal
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Commodity trader interviews coal experts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina on current thermal and metallurgical coal market dynamics.
- Discussion draws on deep sector expertise to reassess author's commodity sector thesis.
- Focus on data infrastructure and market setup for coal trading positions.
FROM THE ARCHIVES!
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Archive post collecting early-2010s research on China's economic deterioration before it became consensus view.
- Research covered iron ore, mining sector, and Brazilian debt crisis risks during commodity boom period.
- Author's consistent bearish thesis on commodity-dependent economies and China structural weakness spanning over a decade.
- Materials serve as historical reference point for long-term contrarian macro analysis.
Kid Accounts: Trump Accounts, IRAs, and 529s
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- New Trump Accounts (530A accounts) launched July 4 with a government gift feature limited to children born between January 1-December 31, 2025.
- Parents now have multiple account options for minors including standard accounts, IRAs, SEP IRAs, Roth IRAs, 529s, and the new Trump Accounts.
- A hands-on investment lab for students will use real market hours to help middle and high schoolers open their first stock portfolios with parental support.
MY READ OF THE AI TRADE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Major tech stocks (Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have underperformed recently due to heavy data center capex reducing free cash flow despite strong fundamentals.
- Traditional bull case attributes weakness to cyclical capex needs for exploding AI demand; traditional bear case draws dot-com parallels with hyperscaler weakness preceding hardware stock declines.
- The author suggests both extreme bullish and bearish interpretations miss the nuanced reality that AI is booming while simultaneously threatening existing tech business models.
Platner’s Defiant Departure. A Way Out of the Iran Mess. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump has formally abandoned the ceasefire agreement with Iran and resumed military strikes, declaring intent to 'finish the job.'
- Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting over 80 U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and command infrastructure.
- The original agreement's foundation was flawed, with U.S. officials misinterpreting the MOU's language regarding Iran's obligation to keep the Strait open.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Financial markets rallied 2% from recent lows despite resumed Iran-Israel hostilities, contradicting expected risk-off behavior.
- Market participants may have perceived the ceasefire as less profitable than active conflict, incentivizing a return to geopolitical tension.
- Trading dynamics suggest institutional actors benefit from volatility and war-driven market movements over prolonged peace.
The Resilience Pivot
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Polymarket assigns 61% probability that Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 31st, suggesting market pricing in near-term resolution despite escalated US-Iran conflict.
- Trump's pattern of managing market expectations through jawboning has proven effective in moderating volatility, creating positioning opportunities where worst outcomes are already priced.
- Emerging markets remain structurally attractive despite current weakness, with SPR drawdowns and munitions constraints limiting Trump's escalation options against Iran.
Ramblings & Ruminations: Mid-Year 2026 Overview
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Markets have reached a state of criticality with high instability across macro conditions, USD, and equity positioning.
- Author reviews jobs, inflation, metals (platinum), and recent trading positions while noting historic volatility in energy markets.
- Acknowledges previous focus on oil dynamics but broadens analysis to include broader macroeconomic themes and geopolitical risk.
infinite sharpe
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Latest Options Trench episode explains how to compute levered ETF imbalances and estimate market impact.
- Patrick McKenzie interviews Wall Street quant on why institutions producing bad statistics face minimal consequences despite documented errors.
- Discussion covers institutional indifference to error, COVID-era decision-making failures, and the difficulty of auditing high-status institutions.
Culture · 14
We Are Wrong About What Makes Us Happy. Here Is What the Evidence Says to Do Instead.
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Research shows people systematically mispredicts what will make them happy, focusing on wrong variables like physical environment over social factors.
- Harvard study found housing quality predictions had minimal correlation with actual happiness levels; social environment mattered far more than housing desirability.
- Social media infrastructure now amplifies this prediction error by highlighting variables people over-weight while obscuring social factors that actually drive well-being.
Are conservatives more post-literate than liberals?, America 100 years ago, hurrah for economic growth and a lock …
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Author's book 'The New Dark Ages' about the decline of reading goes to print September 3rd, examining literacy and engagement trends.
- Post references Derek Thompson's analysis of social trends from 1926 America, exploring historical parallels to modern cultural shifts.
- Author discusses the creative process of finalizing manuscript and difficulty in releasing control of completed work.
Greed
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Greed is a universal human motivation that most people avoid admitting openly, but drives ambition for wealth accumulation.
- Responsible wealth decisions require maintaining sufficient liquid assets that major purchases don't impact financial stability or family goals.
- Market drawdowns are painful because they delay personal financial goals, making returns the path to achieving lifestyle aspirations beyond newsletter income.
Four Ways All Christians Are United
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Christian denominations—Catholic, Protestant, and Orthodox—share common ground through the Nicene Creed's four marks of the church.
- The Evangelicals and Catholics Together initiative demonstrates that Christian unity transcends theological differences and strengthens democratic principles.
- Christian solidarity rooted in love, rather than politics, is essential to restoring Western civilization.
- Democratic governance requires both protection of God-given rights and constitutional checks on human sinfulness.
Feminisation Of Society, Masculinity Crisis and America’s Next President? | Heather Mac Donald
PAIDWinston Marshall
- Heather Mac Donald argues modern culture has systematically discredited positive masculinity while elevating grievance politics and emotionalism.
- Elite institutions from academia to media have embraced anti-Western ideology prioritizing identity politics over merit, discipline, and rationality.
- Growing divide between young men and women reflects campus radicalism, manosphere rise, and displacement of shared civilizational values.
- Discussion explores whether populist-right figures like Trump and Farage can challenge institutional dominance of progressive ideology in Western democracies.
Fingers on the scale
Mark Phillips from The Till
- America has embraced soccer culture with World Cup fever spreading nationwide across multiple cities and restaurants.
- FIFA's systemic corruption and vote-trading practices determine World Cup participation and outcomes.
- The US Men's National Team has learned to navigate FIFA's corrupt system to gain international competitive advantage.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- Brief market commentary noting US markets are relatively flat.
- Commentary includes opinion on Supreme Court decisions regarding sex and sports eligibility.
- Humorous observations comparing fast food brand quality and characteristics.
13 High-Protein Meals, No Bland Chicken
Parent Fit Club
- Provides 13 high-protein meal recipes (70-90g protein) designed for busy parents, avoiding monotonous options like plain chicken.
- Features quick, affordable recipes like the 2-Minute Stack sandwich ($5, 79g protein) and Lazy Scramble ($4.56, 74g protein) that require minimal prep.
- Includes practical container-based meal prep strategies for turning one cooking session into multiple meals throughout the week.
12 YouTube Videos I'm Enjoying Right Now
Ted Gioia
- Gioia curates 12 YouTube videos spanning music, social commentary, film, career advice, furniture, books, and fashion discovery.
- Highlights include pianist Hohnen Ford's 'Wichita Lineman' rendition, a music plagiarism investigation dating to 2004, and emerging Peruvian-Nashville artist Fabrizio.
- The post serves as a discovery vehicle for underrated creators and cultural content Gioia believes deserve wider attention.
Greek salad: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Greek salad success hinges on simplicity and quality ingredients—ultra-ripe heirloom tomatoes, good olive oil, capers, olives, and hand-broken feta.
- Mixing Kalamata and Nocellara olives creates depth and complexity; caper brine in the dressing adds acidity and savouriness without heaviness.
- Natural vegetable juices released during mixing create a 'Greek salad liquor' that ties the dish together and enhances flavor.
- A sharp, savoury dressing with caper brine is essential; technique takes a backseat to ingredient quality and proper assembly.
How to Get Happier and Fight Climate Change
Thinking in Bets
- Elizabeth Dunn and Jiaying Zhao argue climate action should be reframed as an opportunity for joy and fulfillment, not guilt and burden.
- Sustainability is achieved through doing something joyfully rather than attempting to do everything, reducing decision fatigue and moral anxiety.
- The book challenges the narrative that environmental responsibility requires sacrifice of modern comforts and happiness.
- Optimistic framing of climate solutions may increase engagement and long-term behavioral change compared to doom-and-gloom messaging.
Islam, Football, and Armageddon
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- Author, a former Muslim and Egyptian expatriate, grapples with emotional distance from his home country and cultural identity after over a decade abroad.
- Reflects on a kind neighbor's genuine enthusiasm for Egypt's football team and the discomfort of concealing his true feelings about the nation and its values.
- Explores the alienation of living in different worlds and the social friction between honest personal convictions and polite deception.
The 66-Day Myth: What the Research Actually Says About How Long Habits Take
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- The ubiquitous 21-day habit formation claim originated from plastic surgeon Maxwell Maltz's 1950s observation about patients adjusting to appearance changes, not scientific research on all habits.
- Maltz's original statement included qualifiers like 'minimum' and 'about' that were stripped away when popularized through self-help books and corporate wellness programs.
- Actual habit formation timelines vary significantly based on individual factors and habit type, contradicting the oversimplified cultural narrative.
Burnt Honey Vinaigrette
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Burnt honey vinaigrette made by caramelizing honey then deglazing with red wine vinegar creates a high-impact dressing perfect for tomatoes.
- Many common condiments like ketchup, oyster sauce, and soy sauce do not require refrigeration despite popular assumptions, though storage affects flavor longevity.
- Specialty oils should be stored long-term in refrigerator while items like ghee are shelf-stable at room temperature.
Markets · 12
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets flat awaiting investor appetite for Hynix ADR debut; European markets slightly lower with tech dragging.
- Asian markets mixed with Japan up 42bp and China down 1% as yen rises on Bank of Japan efforts to attract pension funds into domestic assets.
- Google selling AI models to blacklisted groups and three AI trends colliding represent emerging regulatory and competitive concerns in TMT sector.
The Price of the Seat
Cape Fear Advisors
- Two identical AI infrastructure loan facilities rated 5 notches apart based solely on customer creditworthiness, not asset quality.
- Tech giants borrowing long-term with no pledged collateral while infrastructure lenders like CoreWeave face steeper borrowing costs and shorter maturities.
- The same companies supplying buildout and holding equity in buyers capture disproportionate economic value across the AI infrastructure stack.
- Credit markets reveal structural asymmetries favoring established tech players over emerging infrastructure financiers.
Chart of the Week - Bubble Watch
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Survey respondents identified 'AI Bubble Burst' as the top surprise for investors in H2, with supporting evidence from recent market weakness across semiconductor stocks.
- Regional tech indices show significant declines: KOSPI down 20% off peak, U.S. SOX in a major topping pattern, and Japan's SoftBank down 33%.
- U.S. semiconductor market cap weight has pulled back from record highs, updating a key indicator for bubble watch analysis.
The Show Goes On
Andrew Sarna
- Equity valuations remain elevated with uncertain forward returns despite recent market strength.
- U.S. PMI shows broad economic expansion across all components with steady economic momentum.
- NVIDIA B200 GPU rental rates surged despite broader compute demand concerns, signaling sustained AI infrastructure demand.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets open slightly higher amid Middle East tensions and light news flow overall.
- Asian and European markets show modest gains with sector divergence (banks leading in Europe, autos lagging).
- Semiconductor strength persists with NVIDIA B200 chip rental rates rising and zero availability, signaling continued AI infrastructure demand.
Short Thoughts July 8, 2026 - NVDA, Neos, Hyperscalers, Jevons Paradox, and Compression
Michael Burry
- Hyperscaler depreciation policies are economically driven levers, not physical measurements, with Amazon shortening server life to 5 years while Meta extended to 5.5 years despite identical hardware.
- Chip obsolescence accelerates faster than traditional depreciation schedules; both NVIDIA's CEO and Microsoft's leader acknowledged rapid generational replacement making prior chips nearly worthless.
- Market participants use divergent depreciation assumptions to manage earnings and cash flow, creating accounting arbitrage opportunities rather than reflecting underlying hardware physics.
A Hawkish Mispricing
Eliant
- AI trade momentum unwound this week with capital dispersal, while Middle East US-Iran tensions triggered broad-based weakness across equities.
- S&P 500 outperformed with near-flat performance while small-cap index lagged by ~130bps, reflecting risk-off sentiment and geopolitical flight-to-quality.
- Author launched Plutus dashboard for real-time actively managed portfolio tracking as cleaner alternative to traditional Substack publication model.
Introducing Polymarket Institutional Research
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Polymarket Institutional Research analyzes whether Anthropic's right-tail valuation upside is underpriced relative to recent market moves.
- Anthropic has become a macro variable for the U.S. economy due to its ARR growth, capex spending, and productivity impact multipliers.
- The analysis explores pricing of convexity points in Anthropic valuation futures contracts on Polymarket.
Penguin Solutions Just Printed the Best Quarter in Its History
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Penguin Solutions posted record Q3 FY2026 results with 47.6% YoY revenue growth to $478.7M and 79% EPS growth to $0.84.
- The company achieved a 10.6% GAAP operating margin while actually reducing operating expenses 3.4% YoY—demonstrating exceptional operating leverage.
- Stock surged 20%+ to a 52-week high on 2.5x volume; the core question is valuation sustainability for parabolic AI-infrastructure names.
Nobody Can Short This
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- SpaceX's record-breaking $135 IPO on June 12 surged to $226 then retreated to near its debut price, with early investors facing significant losses.
- Google's $920 million monthly payment to SpaceX through June 2029 for AI compute capacity in xAI data centers was disclosed before the IPO.
- The regulatory filing revealing Google's massive commitment raises questions about valuation mechanics and market structure beyond traditional IPO fundamentals.
🚨Trade Alert 18: One Exit, One Trim, One New Position and Two Top-Ups!
Capitalist-Letters
- Portfolio correlation with S&P 500 has dipped over two months, with most gains coming from pure alpha generation rather than market movements.
- Strategy focused on broadening from concentrated AI exposure (40% of S&P weight in Dec-Jan) by hunting overlooked sectors and foreign markets.
- Three key alpha sources: foreign markets, ignored S&P sectors like healthcare, and overlooked AI plays like AMD that significantly outperformed Nvidia YTD.
Mind the Valuation Gap
AP Research
- UK equity market, historically dismissed as too old-economy and low-growth, is increasingly attractive to overseas acquirers discovering undervalued assets.
- British takeovers surged 250% year-on-year as international buyers recognize real value in neglected names with strong cash flows and strategic assets.
- EasyJet exemplifies the trend with Castlelake's sweetened 690p-per-share offer, following 100% share price rise in two months as valuation gap closes.
Energy · 12
Sources and Methods
PAIDDoomberg
- Ukraine's ongoing drone and missile campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure is deeply intertwined with global hydrocarbon flows and geopolitical conflict.
- Energy analysts must cut through propaganda and weighted information sources to accurately assess impacts of kinetic warfare on critical energy infrastructure.
- Discernment regarding information sources, regardless of nationality or political orientation, is essential to avoiding critical context gaps in energy market analysis.
China’s Biomimetic Membrane and the Thermodynamic Logic of “New Quality Productive Forces”
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Chinese biomimetic membrane technology enables extraction of critical metals (uranium, rare earths) from seawater and mining waste with significantly higher energy return on investment (EROEI).
- This breakthrough exemplifies China's 'new quality productive forces' strategy: continuous efficiency improvements and supply chain resilience through waste recycling and reduced environmental impact.
- Higher EROEI in upstream extraction raises competitive barriers for Western competitors attempting to catch up in critical metal supply chains.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- New Dalian Exchange coking coal futures tab launched with arb spreads tracking DCE coking coal vs CFR China basis.
- Daily publication of arb spread data with historical charting helps gauge China's likelihood of entering seaborne coking coal markets.
- Tool combines futures pricing with inventory levels to inform global coal price forecasting.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Seaborne coking coal prices drifted lower on July 9 with Australian PLV easing to $235.25/t, while U.S. Atlantic assessments remained largely unchanged.
- SGX PLV futures showed modest contango with the front-month settling at $237.50/t and the curve strengthening to $246.50/t by month 24.
- Global benchmark updates included Australian HCC at $192.95/t and LV PCI at $165.70/t, with USGC LV holding at $239.00/t.
[FREE] Is Big Oil ‘Price Gouging’?
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen back below $70/barrel after spiking during the Strait of Hormuz conflict, returning to pre-conflict levels.
- Market indicators show short-term oversupply as tankers exit the Strait of Hormuz and Asian import demand remains weak amid China's buyer's strike.
- Despite crude price recovery, retail gasoline prices remain elevated relative to crude spot prices, suggesting downstream margin expansion or supply constraints.
Age of discoveries
Irina Slav on energy
- The Energy Institute's 2025 Statistical Review shows fossil fuels still account for 86% of global energy supply, indicating energy addition rather than transition.
- Alternative metrics counting 'useful energy' suggest low-carbon sources may supply up to 30% when accounting for efficiency differences.
- Recent major discoveries in energy data reveal the age of significant discoveries is far from over.
EU Natural Gas: Is the Market Finally Starting to Wake Up?
Asymmetric Research
- European natural gas (TTF) rebounded 20% in two weeks on renewed storage concerns flagged since March.
- Weak gas injections and higher withdrawals due to heatwaves are exposing supply tightness that markets previously ignored.
- Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated market attention to energy security risks.
Crown Joule
environMENTAL
- Jimmy Carter's 1970s renewable energy ambitions to reach 20% of U.S. energy by 2000 failed entirely as fossil fuels remained dominant.
- The U.S. shale revolution unleashed by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing drove oil production to over 21 million bpd by 2025, triple 2008 levels.
- Renewable energy policies have repeatedly shifted with presidential administrations, undermining sustained investment (panels removed under Reagan, reinstalled under Bush).
Crude Build, Diesel Crunch: EIA Data Reveals US Inventory Inflection Amid Hormuz Diesel Crisis
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- US-Iran hostilities reignited with strikes on Iranian targets after Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier crossing key red lines.
- Oil price surge driven by renewed geopolitical conflict and disruption risks to critical shipping routes in the Persian Gulf.
- EIA inventory data showed crude builds amid diesel supply tightness, reflecting complex supply-demand dynamics during escalating regional tensions.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-3-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- Weekly EIA data shows crude builds of 3.0 MMB and SPR draws of 6.2 MMB, with inventories 6% below seasonal average.
- WTI spot pricing at $74 remains discounted relative to model-derived fair value of ~$100, suggesting potential undervaluation.
- Crude exports hit 2026 lows while Middle Eastern imports fell to zero and Canadian imports returned to normal ranges.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Coal price regime shifted from rolling over to mixed/flat in July as market round-tripped spike from Shanxi mine accident.
- China mitigating production losses with increased imports from Mongolia and Russia while Australian output reaches multi-year highs.
- Atlantic market tightening post-DTA accident with India expected to contract cargoes post-monsoon as met coal dynamics shift.
North American Oil Data Deck (July 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- North American petroleum liquids production advanced 188 kbpd month-over-month to 31,350 kbpd in April with acceleration in both Canadian and US output.
- Iran War rally delayed expected US shale contraction by allowing producers to hedge forward and de-risk additional volume growth despite high prices.
- Continental petroleum product demand rose 177 kbpd month-over-month to 25,165 kbpd in April with strong US demand offsetting Canadian consumption slowdown.
Macro · 9
YWR: Shanghai Crash Fund
PAIDErik@YWR
- Shanghai experienced explosive urbanization and property market boom in 2005-2007 driven by massive infrastructure investment and investor euphoria.
- CLSA China conferences were major gathering points where fund managers sought perspective on China's emergence as global economic center.
- The author witnessed Shanghai's rapid transformation from rural areas to gleaming financial district reflecting broader Chinese economic miracle.
The Demographic Drivers of Real Estate
Andrew Sarna
- Africa's urban population surged from 248 million to 829 million (2000-2025), with over 100 cities now exceeding one million residents, creating massive housing demand.
- North American housing supply remains inelastic while steady population growth drives prices higher; Toronto stagnation shows housing prices depend critically on population growth acceleration.
- Office market faces structural headwinds with vacancy rising as remote work persists, though demand increasingly concentrates in newer high-quality buildings.
Warsh Adds Brainpower & AI Destroys It
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to unilaterally collect tolls and require cargo manifests from shipping, exploiting ambiguous language in Trump's Versailles MOU.
- Trump administration prioritized geopolitical wins with vague treaty language that Iranian hardliners interpreted to secure $12 billion in sanctions relief and maritime control leverage.
- Oil markets initially relaxed on ceasefire optimism, but the PGSA arrangement creates new geopolitical risk and potential supply disruption mechanisms masked as bureaucratic procedures.
𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚒𝚛𝚌𝚊𝚜𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝟸𝟻𝟶 𝚍𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚊𝚛-𝚢𝚎𝚗.
Hugh Hendry
- Hugh Hendry forecasted USD/JPY reaching 200 since October 2022 when major banks predicted reversion to 110 equilibrium.
- Investment banks failed to recognize that prices move independently of economic explanations, which arrive only after market moves.
- Independent contrarian thinking has historically outperformed consensus forecasting despite initial dismissal.
FX Trade
Macro Musings by Danny D
- New Zealand currency is strengthening rapidly following its recent slowdown period.
- The market may be underestimating the pace of hiking cycles that New Zealand could implement.
- This presents a potential FX trading opportunity based on monetary policy divergence.
The State, the Company and the Strategic Economy
Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
- Japan's Meiji Restoration state-directed industrialization model created zaibatsu industrial conglomerates through strategic asset transfers, contrasting sharply with chaotic 1990s Russian oligarch emergence during institutional collapse.
- State-enabled development with nationalist stewardship differs fundamentally from privatization amid governance breakdown; Japanese families built long-term industrial dynasties while Russian oligarchs extracted assets during systemic decay.
- Strategic industrial policy and state capitalism remain relevant frameworks for understanding modern critical minerals races and economic competition between nations.
When In Doubt, Diversify
Prometheus Research
- Macro Regime Probabilities show a flattening distribution of potential economic outcomes across the four key regimes (Growth/Inflation combinations).
- Flat regime probability distributions result in flattened expected returns across asset classes, reducing clear outperformance signals.
- A diversified global asset mix is recommended when macro regime uncertainty is high and regime-specific asset correlations weaken.
- The flattening suggests markets are pricing in elevated uncertainty around both growth and inflation trajectories, favoring broad diversification over concentrated bets.
June 2026 BA Real Estate update
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Buenos Aires real estate market remains active on the cash side despite recent weakness in mortgage financing metrics.
- Year-on-year mortgage data showing significant deterioration, marking one of the worst periods since the market recovery began.
Deficits, Dollars and Dominance
Andrew Sarna
- Permanent government deficits across developed economies are widening even during expansions, creating a strong case for hard assets and alternative stores of value.
- Debt-to-GDP ratios continue rising globally, with Japan, France, and Canada among the most indebted when including household debt.
- Financial repression—keeping interest rates artificially low to reduce debt burden—appears to be an emerging policy path, as seen in Japan.
- Despite persistent predictions of dollar decline, the U.S. currency remains the strongest major reserve currency with no viable successor, as the Chinese yuan has actually lost global reserve share.
Politics · 9
Labour Party antisemitism is back
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- UK Labour's Andy Burnham publicly stated the party 'didn't get it right' on Gaza, undermining Keir Starmer's efforts to suppress antisemitism within the party.
- Recent Labour government actions including defending Hamas figures and repeating false claims about Gaza aid contradict stated commitments to zero tolerance on antisemitism.
- Burnham's statements echo antisemitic narratives while framing pressure on Israel as consistent with fighting antisemitism, exposing internal party divisions.
Rahm Emanuel's Speech On The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is A Mess
John Aziz
- Rahm Emanuel argues unconditional U.S. support for Israel has enabled aggressive settlement expansion and Gaza blockades without consequences.
- Emanuel advocates for conditional American aid tied to Israeli compliance with stated U.S. concerns about regional peace.
- Speech represents shift in U.S. diplomatic approach toward Middle East policy and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Americans Aren't Rejecting Capitalism. They're Rejecting What Central Planners Built After 2008
Garrett Baldwin
- 95% of Americans report an affordability crisis, with 68% believing the country is in decline.
- 51% say capitalism isn't working and 75% believe billionaires hold excessive political power.
- Post-2008 central planning policies, not capitalism itself, may be driving public rejection of the economic system.
- Survey data reveals deep structural dissatisfaction with both economic and democratic institutions.
Bombing Iran isn’t a strategy
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Trump's ceasefire with Iran collapsed after renewed Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. strikes on over 80 Iranian military targets.
- Iran responded with strikes on U.S. installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, followed by a complete halt in Strait of Hormuz traffic, escalating regional risk.
- Sustained military escalation lacks a coherent political strategy to resolve underlying tensions, reducing it to tactical strikes without strategic objectives.
That Ceasefire in Full & Binface in Clacton
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- US-Iran ceasefire collapsed with US conducting offensive airstrikes on Iranian targets while Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf region.
- Brent crude surged ~10% for the week toward $79/barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions and threats to Iranian oil export infrastructure.
- Trump distributed divergent geopolitical rewards at NATO summit: sanctions relief for Syria, air-defense missiles for Ukraine, F-35 approval for Turkey, while denying Albania the 2027 summit bid.
Is Latvia an apartheid state?
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Latvia denies voting rights to ~162,000 permanent residents and taxpayers, yet avoids the 'apartheid state' label commonly applied to Israel.
- The definition of apartheid based solely on unequal political rights is applied inconsistently across different countries and contexts.
- The post challenges double standards in international criticism by comparing Latvia's restrictions on non-citizen voting to Israel's situation.
The Iran-U.S. Ceasefire Is Over
John Aziz
- Trump declared the Iran-U.S. ceasefire memorandum 'over' following renewed violence in the Strait of Hormuz and new American strikes on Iran.
- The 60-day interim agreement negotiated under Pakistani mediation with VP Vance has collapsed after tanker incidents and U.S. license revocations on Iranian oil sales.
- The author argues the Iranian regime seeks ongoing conflict with the West and Israel, making any peace deal fundamentally untenable.
Trump v. Barbara: The Court Has Fundamentally Redefined Citizenship
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Supreme Court in Trump v. Barbara (6-3 decision) redefined citizenship, addressing whether the 14th Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship to children of those unlawfully present.
- Justice Roberts' majority opinion reframes American citizenship as 'the right to have rights,' departing from Founders' principle that rights precede political arrangement.
- The decision fundamentally alters the legal framework for automatic citizenship, with implications for immigration and constitutional interpretation.
- Justices Thomas and Gorsuch dissented, signaling deep division over how to interpret the 14th Amendment's citizenship clause in modern context.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets are trading lower amid Iran tensions, while consumer technology has become dramatically cheaper and more accessible.
- The DSA's radical platform—including police abolition, property expropriation, and energy socialization—will likely lose 49 states in any general election.
- Extreme left-wing factions will cannibalize moderate candidates who attempt to walk back the party's most radical policies, following revolutionary dynamics.
AI · 8
How to Build an Agentic OS with Claude Fable 5 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Claude 3.5 introduces a paradigm shift where model intelligence is no longer the binding constraint; context window of one million tokens enables extended autonomous operation.
- The bottleneck has moved from model capability to operational framework—an 'agentic OS' providing delegation, verification, budgets, and earned trust mechanisms.
- Cost efficiency at $50 per million tokens enables sophisticated multi-agent systems, but success now depends on properly structuring governance rather than raw intelligence.
OpenAI GPT-5.6: AI Could Do Anything, Then It Met ARC-AGI-3
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- GPT-5.6 scores only 7.8% on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark despite excelling at agentic tasks and advanced mathematical problems.
- Model's performance gap highlights fundamental limitations in artificial general intelligence despite impressive capabilities in narrow domains.
- Result reveals significant reliability and generalization gaps in current large language models.
Is Fable worth the hype?
Khe Hy
- Anthropic's Fable model requires new prompting approaches and techniques compared to earlier AI models like Opus.
- Key technique: provide context for the larger task and intended audience, not just the immediate request.
- Claude Cowork update enables cloud-based agent scheduling and execution, enabling autonomous workflow automation.
- Practical applications include pre-meeting prep, inbox triage, and note organization running on schedule before user engagement.
The AI Capex Web
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Hyperscaler capital spending is projected at $740 billion in 2026, rising to nearly $1 trillion by 2027, with Amazon guiding $200 billion alone.
- AI capex flows through a densely interconnected supply chain where capital enters wide across five hyperscalers but exits narrow through chokepoint companies.
- The supply chain structure creates concentrated value capture opportunities for companies controlling critical nodes in chip, rack, and infrastructure layers.
Claude Managed Agents Quietly Became the Most Important AI Infrastructure Bet of 2026 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Anthropic's Claude Managed Agents have rapidly evolved in three months with memory, multi-agent coordination, and autonomous scheduled deployments now in public beta.
- AWS and Google shipped competing managed agent harnesses within two weeks of Claude's launch, signaling commoditization of the infrastructure layer.
- Early production economics show companies achieving 3x revenue growth to $10M+ annualized run rates using Claude agents, validating the commercial viability.
MGX catapults Abu Dhabi to centre of global AI evolution
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- MGX, Abu Dhabi's new AI-focused sovereign wealth fund, raised $49 billion in capital—reportedly the largest dedicated pool of cash for AI globally.
- MGX operates as a hybrid venture capital and corporate accelerator (Nvidia-style model), with dealmakers earning performance fees and carry on AI exits.
- The fund leverages UAE's diplomatic and financial relationships to attract third-party capital from sovereign funds, pension funds, and institutions across Europe, Asia, North America, and the GCC.
- This structure represents a major shift in how Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth ecosystem deploys petrodollar surpluses into transformational AI investments.
The AI Industry Has a Really Dark Secret You're Better Off Not Knowing
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI models exhibit hidden internal representations and 'latent language' that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are actively studying and attempting to control.
- The industry acknowledges these behaviors as training artifacts, but interpretability researchers remain uncertain about the true purpose and implications of AI internal communication.
- Author questions official explanations and suggests darker, uncontrollable phenomena may underlie AI decision-making in ways that resist human understanding and oversight.
Stop waiting for AI you can trust. Borrow the 500-year-old trick that made untrustworthy agents useful anyway. (Ye…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Author built a multi-agent AI system with internal oversight structures (QA, auditing, appeals process) that successfully caught and corrected employee fabrication.
- Demonstrates that untrustworthy individual AI agents can produce reliable outcomes when properly constrained within institutional frameworks, mirroring 500-year-old organizational designs.
- Challenges the common executive objection that AI agents cannot be trusted by showing how systematic verification, documentation, and accountability can manage unreliable components.