★ Priority · 15
The Kid Who Emptied His Savings to Buy a Newspaper. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A 25-year-old entrepreneur is attempting to save local journalism by purchasing a newspaper with personal savings, tackling industry decline head-on.
- Traditional newspaper business models have collapsed under pressure from digital disruption and ownership chains like Gannett that prioritize clickbait over investigative reporting.
- The story reflects broader media industry crisis where staffing cuts, furloughs, and cost-cutting measures have gutted newsroom capacity and editorial quality.
(Idea) Obsidian Energy - Attractive Valuation, Unproven Growth
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Obsidian Energy trades at 45% discount to proved-plus-probable NAV of $32.35, reflecting market skepticism despite cheap valuation metrics.
- Company's core investment thesis of per-share growth remains unproven after three years, with production per share and funds flow per share flat or declining despite 16% share count reduction.
- Key question is what catalysts could narrow the valuation discount and whether to assign value before operating evidence materializes on growth claims.
Douglas Murray: Europe’s Borderless Dream Becomes a Nightmare
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Over 60,000 migrants entered Spanish territory of Ceuta from Morocco in 24 hours, illustrating Europe's ongoing migrant crisis and its political consequences.
- Douglas Murray's 2017 book 'The Strange Death of Europe' predicted this crisis, chronicling how Western leaders carelessly opened doors to unlimited migration.
- The event raises questions about whether European elites will reckon with failed migration policies or continue with denial and ineffective solutions.
The Chaos in Ceuta and Another European Migrant Crisis. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Approximately 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into Spain's Ceuta enclave in 24 hours, nearly equaling the territory's entire population.
- At least 18 deaths occurred during the chaotic crossings, prompting Spain to deploy military forces to manage the crisis.
- The event parallels Europe's 2015 migrant peak and reveals that European leaders have failed to implement effective long-term solutions despite a decade of inaction.
GETTING DOWN TO THE HEART OF THE AI TRADE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- AI capex spending now exceeds dot-com boom levels in half the time, with debt financing triggering CDS responses as hyperscalers defend market share.
- Chinese AI models undercutting US models while big tech faces existential competitive threat requiring aggressive defensive spending similar to automotive R&D dynamics.
- Microsoft's $700bn+ future contractual obligations and cloud business growth signal conviction in AI investment thesis despite bearish capex comparisons.
Engineering NE Asia's FX correction
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- NE Asian currencies (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) remain deeply undervalued; remedies include higher nominal rates, pension repatriation, and FX intervention.
- Recent external shocks (Russia-Ukraine, US tariffs, Persian Gulf tensions) convinced North Asia that stronger currencies provide better insurance than maintaining massive FX reserves.
- Over $2 trillion in accumulated FX reserves historically used for stability and fiscal support, but rolling crises now incentivize currency strengthening over reserve accumulation.
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks... - Part II
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Citadel's acquisition of Lee Pol's Situational Awareness portfolio and liquidation of major holdings (Bloom Energy, Sandisk, Coreweave, Iren) generated estimated $1B+ profit in a single day as stocks jumped ~30%.
- The liquidation occurred days before Lee Pol's wedding, highlighting the ruthless nature of Wall Street's most aggressive operators including Jane Street, Millennium, and Citadel.
- The rescue deal represents one of the largest bailouts in recent memory, executed swiftly among elite financial operators without broader market participation.
TGIF: I Am the Most Famous and Talked-About Person in the Country
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Anthony Fauci kept a personal journal documenting celebrations of himself, obtained and released by Senator Rand Paul.
- Journal entries detail interactions with celebrities and athletes plus logging celebratory news stories in spreadsheet format.
- Post critiques Fauci's self-promotional documentation with satirical commentary on public figures' vanity.
đź’¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Situational Awareness fund leveraged 4x with concentrated memory stock longs and software shorts, estimated $30B capital loss.
- Fund unable to meet collateral calls after July losses, illustrating tail risk of concentrated leverage in volatile sectors.
- Buffett quote on naked swimming reflects broader liquidity stress test across leveraged positions in July market selloff.
Sophie Cunningham’s Common Sense
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Political ideology enforces false consensus by punishing dissent and rewarding conformity to obviously false narratives, following the pattern of Orwellian control.
- Tribal belonging pressures individuals to abandon grip on reality and believe demonstrably false statements to maintain in-group status.
- Even the most successful campaigns of forced conformity to falsehoods cannot last forever, eventually giving way to acknowledgment of truth.
BoJ gets FX vol off the sideline and into the game, + Oil, Warsh, and Important Credit Comment
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Bank of Japan launched FX intervention to support the yen, timing it strategically after waiting to see Fed rate signals from Christopher Warsh.
- Risk assets rallied on the intervention, but recent momentum factor unwinds have created volatility, with some large funds shifting from triple-digit gains to losses in a single month.
- A major fund reportedly dumped all listed investments through one enormous trade after approaching limited partners to sell positions directly.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Fed leadership lacks clarity on policy direction, with candid admission that central banking operates as 'performance business'.
- AI trade momentum crash claimed high-profile fund losses amid broader market volatility.
- Nasdaq down 12% since previous 'Buffett Meme Top' call signals potential shift in risk sentiment.
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks...
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- AI-focused fund suffered heavy losses using leverage after massive recent gains, forcing capital raise.
- Nasdaq decline of 12% from prior peak signals potential meme market reversal and risk-off environment.
- Over-leveraged AI trades during momentum rallies exemplify common hubris in speculative markets.
SHOULD YOU SHORT MEMORY STOCKS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GS High Beta Momentum Index lost 43% in over one month, comparable only to 2008 financial crisis dynamics.
- Fed rate cuts weaken dollar and fuel commodity booms, historically triggering momentum reversals.
- Successful shorting strategy involves riding cyclical stocks up then switching when fundamentals deteriorate.
a talk I gave at a quant bootcamp
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Option traders split into two camps: directional investors using posted prices versus vol traders seeking relative value.
- Moontower Workflows tool launched to serve directional option users across Income, Defensive, and Collars strategies.
- Platform bridges gap between majority retail option users and sophisticated volatility trading approaches.
Markets · 19
Slow and Steady Wins the Race: How This Compounder Became a 72 Bagger and Still Has Room to Run
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- BioSyent, a Canadian specialty pharma compounder, has achieved 72x returns while maintaining 63 consecutive profitable quarters through disciplined in-licensing and commercialization.
- Company's business model avoids research risk and patent cliffs by licensing niche drugs rather than discovering them, focusing entirely on commercial execution.
- Recent diversification into oral health through Oral Science acquisition opens new growth vectors beyond historical FeraMAX single-product dependency.
Growth Guys Throwing In The Proverbial Towel, Value Guys Throwing In The Towel & Thinking Out Loud 7/31/2026
TKTheContrarian
- Situational Awareness fund down 67% in July 2026 due to excessive 400%+ leverage and forced capital calls from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Fund held concentrated positions in tech/energy stocks (SanDisk, Bloom Energy, Intel, CoreWeave, Nebius) that all cratered in July.
- Leopold Aschenbrenner explored selling private Anthropic stake and liquidated large public equity positions to Citadel to meet margin requirements.
Foundations: Market Structure & What The Heck Just Happened
Michael Burry
- S&P 500 delivered 12.09% annualized real return over 2011-2026 with dividend contribution at only 1st percentile historically (1.76%).
- Companies have replaced traditional dividends with buybacks and RSU withholding that don't appear in standard earnings or free cash flow metrics.
- Earnings growth has driven returns, but earnings quality and permanence are critical questions given potential cyclical or enhanced components to reported profits.
Risk Down, Noise Up
Nico from AiQ
- Platinum could trade above $5,000 and potentially regain premium over gold if macroeconomic conditions align favorably.
- Federal Reserve pivot (Warsh's dovish shift) reduces near-term risk and creates lower-risk entry point for commodity bulls.
- Geopolitical escalation in Europe, China, and Middle East being ignored as market focus remains on US weather and Fed policy.
Fwd: Garrett Baldwin - Application to the BIS
Garrett Baldwin
- Garrett Baldwin applied for a role at the Bank for International Settlements Financial Stability Board, motivated by currency interventions and market volatility in Japan and South Korea.
- Baldwin's humorous cover letter highlights his 18 years of expertise in financial crises, leverage, collateral chains, and nonbank financial institutions from an independent perspective.
- The application reflects concerns about systemic financial stability risks in the current macroeconomic environment.
Friday POW!
The Haymaker Team
- Regional bank stocks trade at 11x forward earnings versus market average of 22x+, despite strong sector fundamentals driven by margin expansion and deposit cost declines.
- Net interest margin inflection is confirmed with Q1 2026 data showing deposit costs rolling over and wider margins across banking sector.
- Catalysts include M&A consolidation wave and lighter Basel III regulatory requirements, positioning banks as value/cyclical rotation play if growth assets lose favor.
Apple, Adding It Up: The Immaterial Toll Booth
Cape Fear Advisors
- Apple's capital restraint—spending only 5.8% of operating cash flow on property and equipment—represents the best capital allocation decision of the cycle.
- Apple is the only major tech company among its peers whose total liabilities shrank in the latest quarter, returning $61.8 billion to shareholders via buybacks and debt repayment.
- Apple's balance sheet strategy contrasts sharply with peers, demonstrating disciplined financial stewardship through minimal capex and debt reduction.
Nom de Plume
Tony Greer
- July market leadership shifted to energy, financials, and natural resources as oil surged 20% and inflation trade reignited following Iran escalation.
- Semiconductors posted worst month in over a year with meaningful technical breakdown after 12 positive months, signaling AI momentum loss and style rotation.
- Fed messaging shifted to watching inflation rather than policymakers, with Warsh approach implying rates can hold steady if inflation remains contained.
Everyone's Invited This Morning (Money Printer Pro) to Learn How the "Market Game" Works
Garrett Baldwin
- Japan's Ministry of Finance intervention, alongside Korea, triggered a market momentum rebound and fueled the bounce-back referenced in Thursday's trading.
- Market interventions reveal underlying plumbing dynamics that become visible once understood and cannot be unseen in future analysis.
- Paid subscribers receive detailed momentum readings while free viewers get access to recordings and YouTube replays of morning market reports.
Situational Awareness Puts in the Bottom
Andrew Sarna
- Situational Awareness fund hit with margin calls after AI stock selloff, with Citadel acquiring its entire portfolio.
- Markets pushing hyperscalers to cut capex; Microsoft gained on lower guidance while Meta fell on aggressive spending plans.
- Equal-weighted S&P 500 shows many stocks still trading below 20x earnings beneath the surface volatility of mega-cap AI names.
đź’¬ New thread from Michael Burry
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry announcing post-mortem analysis of big tech earnings with visual breakdowns as K and Q filings release.
- Subscriber chat format teasing detailed analysis of tech sector performance and market implications.
- Early stage analysis and data compilation for comprehensive tech earnings critique.
Markets' Month End Bounce & Football Fight Exposes Europe's Anticapitalist Instincts
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- South Korea's Kospi fell 17% then rose 17% in single session, with SK Hynix and Samsung surging on chip rally.
- Market dysfunctional from leverage-driven liquidations and repurchases disguised as AI referendum, lacking fundamental signal.
- Apple's modest 6% fall despite strong iPhone sales reveals actual constraint: advanced chipmaking supply shortages, not demand.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund liquidated its entire semiconductor and AI positions to Citadel Securities after suffering massive losses in July.
- The fund carried 4x leverage on concentrated AI infrastructure longs hedged with software shorts that moved against it, wiping out equity cushion under borrowed money.
- Three prime brokers (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America) issued margin calls forcing a single block trade liquidation rather than gradual unwinding.
The Japan Intervention... (A Rant)
Garrett Baldwin
- Japan's Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan intervened in forex markets buying yen and selling dollars after currency hit 40-year weakness at 164/USD.
- Japanese yen bounced to strongest levels against dollar since 2022 following intervention, settling below prior 160/USD intervention level.
- Intervention occurred same day semiconductor names were technically oversold (RSI and MFI), suggesting coordinated market recovery attempts across regions.
Dim Sum Toe Dip
Chase Taylor from Pinecone Passport
- Analysis focuses on China investment opportunity with deviation from usual data and charts format.
- Provides preliminary take on China buying thesis with promise of fuller data analysis next week.
- Suggests tactical positioning shift in China markets worth exploring.
JETBLUE LEFT TAIL
The Oracle by Polymarket
- JetBlue bankruptcy event contracts are being facilitated by Polymarket's institutional desk, highlighting the airline industry's chronic capital destruction.
- US airline industry has produced nearly 160 bankruptcies since the 1970s due to thin margins, high fixed costs, and volatile variable costs.
- Airlines cannibalize each other through acquisition as acquirers chase scale and acquired airlines struggle from lacking sufficient size to be profitable.
Mark Zuckerberg's Empire Is Now Crumbling
Ted Gioia
- Meta shares have fallen nearly $250 per share since the author's previous warning, erasing half a trillion dollars in market value.
- Daily active users on Facebook and Instagram declined for the first time, threatening the core business that funds Meta's other ventures like AI infrastructure.
- Zuckerberg's plan to sell excess AI computing capacity contradicts his massive spending on data centers, signaling confusion about resource allocation and future strategy.
Big Tech, Adding It Up: The Trillion That Was Never Hidden
Cape Fear Advisors
- A viral chart claiming $1.65 trillion in hidden off-balance-sheet obligations for major tech companies has drifted in retellings, with figures inflating to $1.8 trillion.
- The obligations are not hidden—they are disclosed in company filings and lease schedules; the problem is how the data has been framed and communicated.
- The real concern about tech companies' financial structure is legitimate, but labeling disclosed information as 'hidden' disarms readers by teaching them to distrust public disclosure mechanisms.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Market consensus remains bullish despite widespread uncertainty, with few investors entertaining the possibility that the bull market is over.
- Key concerns include geopolitical risks (Iran), inflation dynamics, private credit exposure, and insurance vulnerabilities that are underpriced by the market.
- Earnings analysis of major tech and growth companies (Lam Research, Microsoft, Meta) reveals divergent performance with some strength in AI infrastructure but broader uncertainties.
Politics · 15
Spain's Border Crisis Has Become a National Crisis
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Spain's Ceuta border breach saw tens of thousands overwhelm security, exposing sovereign European states' structural inability to control territory entry.
- Emergency infrastructure collapsed under crisis pressure, with Guardia Civil and local services unable to manage surge; violent clashes between residents and new arrivals left nine dead.
- Border enforcement failure reflects deeper political apathy across Europe toward migration sovereignty, with infrastructure and resources stretched beyond capacity.
Welcome Home! Leave Your Conscience Outside!
Tzlil Berko
- Article employs sarcasm to critique ideology that abandons objective facts, history, and consistent standards in favor of narrative control.
- Describes use of delegitimization as soft power and elimination as hard power to suppress opposition.
- Commentary on relativization of violence through concepts like 'proportionality' that appear selectively applied.
HODLing, Houthis, and the X(i) Factor
environMENTAL
- Iran may not need to militarily defeat US but rather extract economic and political costs sufficient to force negotiation.
- Cheap drones (around $30,000 per unit) have fundamentally changed modern warfare as demonstrated in Ukraine conflict.
- Prediction markets reflect realistic assessment that non-state actors can inflict asymmetric costs on superpowers despite overwhelming conventional superiority.
Zack Polanski Reposted An Image Calling For Nigel Farage's Death By Guillotine
John Aziz
- Green Party leader Zack Polanski shared an image on Instagram depicting a guillotine with text suggesting violence against Nigel Farage, claiming he did not notice the violent imagery.
- Police examined the case but determined no criminal offense was committed, as prosecutors typically require evidence of knowledge or intent to charge someone with encouraging violence.
- Polanski removed the post after it was flagged and stated his opposition to political violence, though he refused to apologize initially.
Ceuta’s phantom invasion
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- While roughly 50,000-60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta and 57 died, online narratives inflated the event into a supposed 'invasion of Europe' heading to Schengen.
- The breach was real and concerning, but Ceuta's geography—surrounded by Morocco and the sea with controlled ferry and air routes—makes onward migration logistically difficult.
- The event should have triggered debate about border security and Spanish complacency, but instead sparked panic among those unfamiliar with Ceuta's physical constraints.
We Choose Violence
Open Insights
- Iran's use of relatively cheap drones and ballistic missiles has successfully disrupted a global superpower's operations, demonstrating effectiveness of asymmetric warfare tactics.
- These weapons act as 'nuisance' systems—cheap and plentiful enough to overwhelm defenses but insufficiently powerful for offensive operations, allowing control of territory and frustration of hegemons.
- Prolonged conflict raises stakes and forces difficult choices between global economic recession or policies that risk the petrodollar system and strengthen Iran's position.
Irans Biggest Enemy isn't who you think
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry is the most significant religious-political conflict shaping the Middle East over the past half-century.
- This rivalry is often overlooked by Western audiences compared to India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, or Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
- The Iran-Saudi conflict has driven Middle Eastern geopolitics through war and bloodshed more profoundly than other commonly cited rivalries.
Uncensored and in full: my Oxford Union Islam debate speech
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Author published uncensored video of Oxford Union debate speech on Islam and Western suspicion after official video was delayed over six weeks.
- Previous Oxford Union debate on Israel was censored, with audio muted and selective camera cuts to hide audience disruption that required security intervention.
- Author preemptively recorded contribution after learning from prior censorship, forcing institution to release footage when clip of abuse went viral with 13M+ views.
By Popular Demand: The End of the American Empire? Why the Iran War Is Slipping Beyond Washington’s Control
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran war is shifting from Washington-controlled strategy to a multipolar conflict where regional actors, proxies, and governments pursue independent agendas.
- Recent developments—oil market pressure, Saudi Arabia's new Red Sea maritime coalition, and independent regional actions—suggest the strategic center of gravity is shifting away from U.S. control.
- The conflict represents a fundamental change to America's strategic position in the Middle East, raising questions about what happens when the world's dominant military power cannot control unfolding events.
Geopolitical Checkers
PAIDDoomberg
- Political leaders in Washington, London, and Brussels appear to ignore opponent responses when making strategic moves on geopolitical threats.
- Article compares political decision-making unfavorably to chess, where calculation and psychology must include adversary countermoves.
- Critique of Western leaders dismissing geopolitical risk analysis as 'panicanism' rather than genuine strategic foresight.
Paris Was Trashed After Winning A Championship. Madrid Wasn't. And The Difference Is Immigration.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Spain's World Cup celebration with ~2 million people resulted in only 7 arrests and no serious incidents, contrasting sharply with Paris riots.
- Paris Champions League riots saw 890 arrests, 219 injuries, and looted stores following PSG's victory weeks earlier.
- The piece examines how immigration differences between the two cities may explain divergent public behavior and social stability outcomes.
Anthony Fauci Owes Americans the Truth
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Anthony Fauci invoked Fifth Amendment 111 times before Senate subcommittee, avoiding self-incrimination on pandemic policies.
- Piece argues Fauci drove policies that dismantled civil liberties and caused widespread harm during COVID lockdowns.
- Author criticizes Fauci's arrogance and argues he operated beyond legal accountability despite massive public impact.
How the WHO used Hollywood in their COVID Cover-Up
PAIDWinston Marshall
- WHO coordinated a deliberate, high-profile publicity campaign with celebrities and media during COVID, contrary to claims of organic grassroots support.
- Late-night shows, mainstream news, and social media parroted CDC and WHO messaging in a centrally coordinated effort rather than spontaneous movement.
- Winston Marshall, who was behind the scenes, reveals first-hand knowledge of how the WHO orchestrated celebrity participation and messaging alignment.
How to Undermine Religious Freedom While Singing Its Praises
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Progressive organizations claim to support religious freedom while criticizing Trump's Religious Liberty Commission, creating an apparent contradiction.
- The authors correctly identify religious liberty as a founding principle and cornerstone of the nation, but their hostility toward efforts to safeguard it undermines their credibility.
- The piece argues that conflating religious freedom rhetoric with opposition to concrete protections represents despotism masquerading as patriotism.
China Deepens Military Support for Iran
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- China is reportedly supplying Iran with 300-400 advanced surface-to-air missile systems, marking a shift from quiet, long-term capability building to active military support during regional conflict.
- This represents a new geopolitical signal that China is willing to directly challenge U.S. interests in the Middle East, breaking from decades of preference for subtle technology transfers.
- These weapons could threaten not only military aircraft but also commercial aviation and U.S. regional logistics networks, escalating the stakes beyond conventional military calculations.
Culture · 11
This designer relies on her clients' best memories for inspo
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Designer Hollie Velten-Lattrell uses client interviews to extract personal memories and feelings that inform spatial design.
- Her background as a dancer gives her understanding of visual narratives and how spaces should flow.
- Spaces firm specializes in bespoke interior renovations that incorporate clients' life stories and emotional connections.
Shoulders of Giants
Scott Galloway
- Scott Galloway reflects on his appointment to UC Regents board, acknowledging that individual success ultimately rests on contributions from others and structural advantages.
- True accomplishment requires recognizing the role of family sacrifice, parental support, and unearned privileges like being born white, male, and straight during economic expansion.
- Success is not an individual sport but rather standing on the shoulders of giants, from Homer's reliance on oral traditions to Newton's scientific advancement.
From TikTok to Tradition: A New Generation Is Looking Back to the Roots of the West
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Younger generations are increasingly rejecting digital-only modern life and seeking meaning through faith, history, and tradition.
- Growing interest in Christianity among young adults reflects a desire to reconnect with Western cultural inheritance and roots.
- Western culture's portrayal of religion and tradition as outdated obstacles has created a cultural amnesia that younger people now actively resist.
Become powerful: what actually works in life's second half
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Personal power in aging manifests across six dimensions: physical, nutritional, emotional, cognitive, and two others yet to be detailed.
- Becoming more powerful as you age involves mastery over life areas you care about most, enabling resilience against negativity.
- Travel and distance from home catalyze new thinking and perspectives on life purpose, particularly relevant for those approaching 50 and beyond.
A ship called Dignity
Roger Mitchell from As In The Lake
- Football industry celebrated commercial success of recent World Cup while denying inevitable market-driven consequences.
- PE disruption of American pro sports and NCAA demonstrates untethered capitalism's relentless expansion into sports.
- Author argues industry made revenue growth its North Star without conscience, making commercialization backlash inevitable.
Akhenaten's hips, the dawn of the ... post-oral society !?, medieval people loved their children, the wisdom of Di…
James Marriott from Cultural Capital
- Explores emerging 'post-oral society' where spoken word frequency is declining across US, Mexico, Australia, and Europe.
- Research shows people speaking fewer words daily while society simultaneously becomes post-literate, creating dual communication collapse.
- Forthcoming book examines cultural and political implications of shift away from both written and oral communication norms.
In praise of the Midwest
Chris Arnade Walks the World
- Author praises the Midwest (Michigan City, Northern Indiana) as underrated and most relaxed part of the U.S. with affordable leisure options.
- The American Dream is working again in the Midwest for both front-row and back-row populations after rough decades elsewhere.
- Region offers beach access without crowds, excellent dive bars with cheap large drafts, craft beer venues, and accessible outdoor recreation.
Boy George Sings: "You Say Genocide, I Say War"
John Aziz
- Boy George's song about October 7 and Gaza war defends remembering the Nova music festival attack and supporting Israel without denying the complexity of the conflict.
- Mainstream publications accused Boy George of being pro-war and denying genocide for acknowledging that military response follows attacks.
- The article challenges the false dichotomy that standing with Jewish people and Israelis is inherently anti-Palestinian or that recognizing war negates other suffering.
Vivid Thoughts from an Outback Steakhouse
Garrett Baldwin
- Restaurant chains face severe financial pressures with minimal customer traffic and lean staffing, raising questions about survivability of many establishments.
- Post-pandemic restaurant operations are doing significantly more with fewer employees, indicating structural cost pressures across the industry.
- Consumer dining patterns and spending behaviors are shifting, creating challenges for casual dining chains to maintain profitability and scale.
How to Substitute Cilantro
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Effective substitution requires understanding both the flavor profile and emotional preferences of the cook, not just objective ingredient analysis.
- A combination of thinly sliced scallions plus lemon or lime zest replicates cilantro's pungency, citrus notes, and crunch while avoiding unwanted liquid.
- Zest works better than juice in substitutions because cilantro itself is dry, maintaining proper texture and moisture balance in dishes.
Privilege isn't recognized here
Mark Phillips from The Till
- Human fairness instinct drives rejection of unfair treatment even at personal cost, as shown in ultimatum game experiments.
- Exploitative behavior triggers punishment regardless of rational self-interest calculations in repeated social interactions.
- Societal norms enforcement and reputation maintenance operate as deeper principles beyond pure game theory logic.
Macro · 8
Weekly KAOS, 7/31/26
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- The Federal Reserve held rates while the bond market administered its own tightening, with 30-year yields reaching levels unseen since pre-2008 crisis.
- AI capex trade faced a reckoning as markets shifted focus from capex volumes to actual cash flow implications and debt servicing burden.
- Oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions, creating demand-destructive forces that reduce need for additional monetary tightening.
An Economic Expansion, a Supply Shock, and a Tightening Cycle
Prometheus Research
- The macroeconomic cycle shows stable economic expansion with cyclical and supply-shock inflation, creating pressure to tighten monetary policy.
- Strong nominal spending growth, healthy corporate profits, and robust labor market conditions continue to drive inflationary pressures above target.
- This backdrop systematically favors equities and commodities over fixed income, as rising rate pressure hurts bond valuations.
Egypt’s “Impenetrable” Skies: Damietta and the Ghost of 1967
The Grand Strategy from Khaled Hassan
- A drone struck the U.S.-operated FSRU Energos Winter at Egypt's Damietta LNG port, triggering fires that spread to a second vessel on July 29, 2026.
- Egypt's government denial of Iranian involvement echoes propaganda tactics used before the 1967 loss of Sinai, suggesting historical pattern repetition.
- The incident targets critical LNG infrastructure in a strategically vital Mediterranean location, with potential implications for regional energy security and geopolitical tensions.
CLOSING TIME
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Polymarket odds for Houthis closing Bab el-Mandeb by September 2026 stand at 14%, but insider conversations suggest significant underestimation of closure probability.
- Closing the Red Sea chokepoint represents the cheapest and most effective tool for Houthis to force US-allied de-escalation against Iran after other options exhausted.
- Houthis financially dependent on Saudi Arabia but escalating tensions and IRGC logistics damage create incentives to demonstrate capability despite geopolitical risks.
The New Fed
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is shifting strategy from press conferences and forward guidance toward market-driven tightening via steeper yield curves and bond volatility.
- U.S. Treasury yields are 100-200 basis points too low relative to overheated NGDP growth, with the Fed's new approach potentially failing against yield-insensitive spending from AI and fiscal stimulus.
- Japan's quiet yen intervention could trigger a larger Treasury sell-off, potentially hammering U.S. stocks despite near-term Wall Street benefits from the rate pause.
Midweek Macro Note: The Dead Cat Dragon...?, a JPY Puck Save, BoJ Decision
MacroEdge Research
- KOSPI bounced 12% and Nikkei up 1% off technical oversold conditions with assistance from Korea's $14bn sovereign wealth fund injection into AI and tech equities.
- Rally exhibits textbook countertrend characteristics similar to 2000/2022 patterns with short squeezes and liquidation-driven bounces.
- Bank of Japan rate decision pending; oil markets show UKMTO activity but overall technical setup suggests caution on sustained rally strength unless Nasdaq breaks parabolic pattern.
The Family Fight
Peruvian Bull
- Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% with first hawkish dissent since 2016, with three regional presidents demanding a hike instead of a cut.
- Kevin Warsh as Fed chair is positioning himself as a Volcker-like inflation fighter rather than politically aligned with fiscal expansion.
- Historical pattern of dovish dissents under Powell has reversed to hawkish pressure, signaling shifting monetary policy dynamics.
July 2026 - A turning point in the AI supercycle
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- July 2026 marks a potential turning point similar to March 2000, March 2008, and January 2020, preceding significant market upheaval.
- AI bull market may be topping as the primary driver of equity gains, with converging headwinds from AI developments, Iran conflict, and Fed policy creating stagflationary conditions.
- Author exited AI semiconductors and infrastructure portfolio in June, moving to cash ahead of expected summer turbulence.
Energy · 7
YWR: The Secret Hedgehog
PAIDErik@YWR
- Expand Energy acquired Twin Eagle marketing business for $1.25 billion, cementing its position as largest US natural gas producer and marketer.
- Combined entity controls 44 bcf of storage capacity, 2 bcf/day of transportation rights, and network to move gas anywhere in US.
- Vertical integration of production and marketing creates strategic advantage in volatile energy markets.
- Transaction occurred quietly amid broader market volatility but represents significant structural shift in natural gas industry.
Oil Context Weekly (W31)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- Weekly oil market summary covering crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data.
- Includes detailed analysis of Middle East shipping flows and broader energy market themes.
- Paid subscribers access 40-page PDF Market Positioning Data Deck with granular market tracking.
The Floating Lever
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- Russia's Akademik Lomonosov, the world's only operating floating nuclear power plant, generates 70 megawatts to power remote Arctic operations and industrial mining.
- Floating nuclear reactors represent a practical solution for power generation in isolated, resource-rich areas without requiring major infrastructure investment.
- Rosatom is expanding deployment of floating reactors beyond Pevek to support additional regional industrial projects like the Baimskaya copper-gold deposit.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell to $216.30/t FOB with tier-two index at $181.20/t amid weak buying and bearish sentiment.
- Failed offer of 75,000 tonnes at $179.50/t FOB signals buyer conviction that lower prices are ahead despite breaking below psychological $180/t support.
- Ample spot cargo availability and lack of end-user enquiries continue to pressure seaborne coking coal market.
A plan for a new energy system
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- China's 2026-2030 Five Year Plan for New Energy System targets clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy by 2030 with ~25% non-fossil energy consumption.
- Key targets include carbon intensity reduction of 17% per GDP unit, carbon peaking before 2030, and focus on green hydrogen, ammonia and ethanol production.
- Plan reflects thermoeconomic state strategy prioritizing energy independence and EROEI improvements amid global oil and gas market challenges.
Cushing Is Approaching The Operational Floor
PAIDTracy (Chi) from Renegade Resources
- Cushing crude inventory at 18.599M barrels with weekly draws of 700-800K, approaching Renegade Resources' 16M operational floor.
- 20M barrel threshold was treated as psychological minimum but recent analysis suggests the true physical floor is lower and unmeasured.
- EIA lacks precise data on minimum working inventory levels and uses pilot studies to understand tank bottom mechanics.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-volatile coking coal prices fell $1/t to $219/t FOB as oversupply dominates the market.
- Indian and Chinese buyers show subdued interest with healthy inventories and monsoon-related weakness limiting purchases.
- Over 200,000 tonnes of unsold tier-one cargoes remain available, indicating persistent seller pressure.
Trading · 7
🔬 Your Monthly Alpha Lab Deep Dive
Jason from PyQuant News
- Monthly deep dive backtests a momentum factor strategy selecting top/bottom quintiles from liquid stocks with a 12-1 month lag to avoid short-term reversals.
- Strategy uses Zipline with realistic commission, slippage modeling, and monthly rebalancing to capture the momentum premium in a practical way.
- Full workflow covers liquidity-based universe selection, custom factor creation, and long-term performance analysis of the anomaly-driven approach.
Bison Insights Composite Update
Bison Insights
- Bison Insights Composite tracking author's energy and market ideas shows strong outperformance versus energy ETF XOP and broader market SPY.
- Portfolio adjustments include doubling up on top two performing ideas while simplifying two small tail-risk hedge positions based on results.
- Paid subscriber access reveals exact positions and reasoning behind the updated portfolio weighting changes.
Robinhood’s Q2 2026: a 44% EPS beat, a $106M gain that’s already gone & why HOOD stock fell anyway 🏹📉; Revolut o…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Robinhood delivered 44% EPS beat in Q2 2026 but stock fell despite strong earnings and $106M gain that evaporated pre-call.
- Revolut opened private market access to 75M users weeks before OpenAI deal, raising questions on timing for $150-200B IPO.
- Detailed breakdown of fintech earnings and capital markets expansion strategies with AI tooling for financial analysis.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Cargill registered 500 soybean oil bringing total to 1,055; trade consensus expects RVO (Renewable Vegetable Oil) to persist given balance sheet dynamics.
- ADM announced 25 million bushels capacity expansion across four plants, signaling multi-decade infrastructure commitment over market rumors.
- Wheat jumped on Russian port strikes but gave back gains; copper in 'wait and see' mode while equity markets draw attention.
Market Analysis and Trades for 7/31
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Daily market analysis and trading signals for SPY and QQQ following weekly technical pathplan.
- Content references starter kit material and weekly analysis framework for decision-making on positioning.
- Paid subscriber content available in Discord with detailed pathing and trading setups.
Trading Post July 30, 2026
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry added to positions in DKNG, ZTS, and LULU at depressed prices after long declines, viewing them as de-risked consolidations.
- Increased put positions on QQQ and NVDA while shorting MU and SOXX, positioning for a potential reversal after extreme market moves.
- Historic momentum unwind observed in markets but with weak follow-through, suggesting tired legs in the old trade despite temporary knee-jerk bounces.
The Point Where Willpower Stops Working
Sara
- Willpower paradoxically becomes an obstacle under pressure, driving traders deeper into losses rather than recovery.
- Emotional regulation in high-stakes trading requires abandoning pure willpower-driven persistence.
- Rational thinking degrades under stress, making forced conviction trades after losses counterproductive.