★ Priority · 11
Uncomfortable Truths
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- META's AI Agent Muse sparks enthusiasm while OpenAI and Anthropic face skepticism over regulatory capture concerns.
- Chinese AI models now account for 66% of token share, with Alibaba expanding data center capacity to 20GW by 2032.
- Palantir's Karp warns OpenAI will never IPO and predicts nationalization as the only viable exit path.
Market Update & Signals 9/22/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- SPY breaks to highest close since August record with Bull Flag projection to ~$780, QQQ first green September in midterm election year since 2010.
- Tech led gains with Nasdaq +830 points; momentum flipped to long and is not overbought, setting stage for extension rally to new highs.
- Multiple open gaps identified at key levels (SPY $747/$762, QQQ $705/$721) likely to be retested in coming weeks despite bullish breakout.
Coleman Hughes on Nikole Hannah-Jones’ School Experiment. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Nikole Hannah-Jones's school experiment to fight inequality by sending her daughter to a disadvantaged school became a family disaster by her own admission.
- Hannah-Jones's daughter, now 16, expressed anger at being denied elite school access on principle, questioning her mother's ideological choice.
- Coleman Hughes argues the takeaway is not to mock the failure but to learn from mistakes in applying abstract ideology to real family welfare decisions.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- NQ 30,000 September 28th puts trading for $60 ($723 QQQ equivalent) offer potential 15x returns if Nasdaq drops to 29,000 level.
- Author describes buying downside puts as a 'blood sacrifice' to appease the market gods despite bullish sentiment.
- Position acknowledges Murphy's Law dynamic where bought puts typically don't pay off but unmade bets would have.
The Bravest Man We Ever Knew
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Story of Dovie, a disabled man with nemaline myopathy, who wrote against New York's assisted suicide bill while experiencing life as 'borrowed time.'
- Dovie's life dependent on motorized wheelchair and ventilator demonstrated that disabled lives have intrinsic worth against the logic of assisted suicide.
- Personal memoir illustrates the tension between policy arguments about life worth and lived experience of someone with severe disability.
đź’¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Markets return to 'War of Worry' meme as Trump signals 'big things happening' regarding Iran, creating elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting Jake Paul symbolizes the absurdity of current market environment despite potential bottom signal.
- Alibaba extends gains into Trump-Xi diplomatic engagement, suggesting potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations.
How to Fake Climate Science. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- World Weather Attribution organization has repeatedly published flawed climate science reports linking extreme weather events to human-caused global warming without rigorous methodology.
- Nepal is seeking $20 million in UN compensation based on WWA's report linking a catastrophic Himalayan flood to climate change.
- Researcher Roger Pielke Jr. questions the soundness of WWA's methodology despite media acceptance of their conclusions as gospel.
LNG/Coal Recap
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- EU energy resilience is eroding as efficiency optimization prioritizes cost over buffer capacity, exposing vulnerability to shocks.
- Germany's gas storage levels are at record highs but the interconnected EU grid means regional price spikes cascade across borders rapidly.
- December 2024 saw extreme wholesale electricity prices (€936/MWh in Germany, €872 in Netherlands), signaling an upcoming LNG bidding war.
đź’¬ New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- Oil diplomacy meetings expected this week offer opportunities for Trump administration to signal peace deals, potentially triggering a pullback.
- Key signal will be US-Europe SPR coordination; analyst expects SPR drawdown regardless of diplomatic outcome.
- Trading opportunity: expect pullback followed by long positioning in November BNO calls.
The Market Has a Rule of Its Own
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- All markets operate under rules—accounting, tax, capital requirements, and index methodologies—that fundamentally shape price discovery, not distort it.
- Market-weighted bond indexes reverse traditional portfolio construction logic by having borrowers dictate debt issuance rather than investors determining needs.
- The Fed's rate hike and its policy rationale reveal how institutional design favors certain investment forms and affects market behavior beyond pure value opinions.
blindsided
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- The author reflects on what blindsided him most as a new parent: the extraordinary awesomeness of having a child.
- He describes the moment of hearing his son's voice as the most transcendent experience of his life, revealing a newfound sense of purpose.
- The piece critiques cultural narratives that frame parenthood primarily as a chore, overlooking the profound joy and clarity it can provide.
Markets · 15
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P flat with early dip recovery as oil falls; 10-year yield at 4.93%, USD down 8bp, European markets slightly higher.
- Asian markets flattish overnight (Japan -26bp, China +5bp, Korea +14bp); renewed AI fever and Alibaba chip unveiling driving sentiment.
- Key themes include Xi-Trump summit expectations, Trump approval at record lows, and continued Mag7 momentum in tech sector.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Corn rallied on speculation China would buy U.S. corn, but this lacks economic logic given current relative pricing.
- Corn and soybean meal leading agricultural moves while market breadth remains weak despite new equity ATHs.
- AiQ maintains long bias on hogs amid broader commodity and equities volatility.
there will be fucking blood.
Hugh Hendry
- Oil at $100 has built strongest technical base in a generation, reminiscent of 2007-08 price ceiling break.
- Author recommends buying oil majors as preferred trade strategy over commodity futures.
- Technical setup suggests significant opportunity despite avoiding direct oil commodity exposure.
Money Printer 401: What the Sam Hell Is This...
Garrett Baldwin
- Jane Street quantitative trading report prompted hour-long investigation into confusing financial sector innovation.
- Author encountered one of most complex financial developments since NHL ETFs in August.
- Research explores mechanical buying mechanisms and market structure implications from high-powered quant firms.
The $2 Trillion Apartment Bomb Is Really a Bank Story
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Apartment landlords face $1.8 trillion in debt over the next decade, with $757 billion due by 2028, as loans signed at 3% refinance near 6%.
- Delinquency rates on apartment mortgage bonds jumped from 1% to 7%, the sharpest increase among commercial real estate types, with even major firms like Blackstone facing foreclosure.
- The apartment crisis is primarily a banking story: when these losses hit bank balance sheets, lending standards tighten and credit contraction ripples through the economy.
Trading Post September 21, 2026
Michael Burry
- Michael Burry initiates position in ERO (Ero Copper), Brazilian copper mining company with new management that delivered on three difficult promises.
- Copper supply constraints make the trade attractive: major copper discoveries are declining and new mines take years to develop.
- Forensic accounting review came clean and regulatory environment turning favorable for copper mining for first time in years.
Going long AI infrastructure again
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Author went long AI infrastructure and semiconductor names again after exiting in June, betting excessive leverage has been wrung out of the system.
- Despite multiple negative catalysts including energy price concerns, Iran-US tensions, and hawkish Fed policy, Nasdaq has held firm and threatens to break range highs.
- Market resilience signals strength that traders should not ignore, suggesting the bull market case remains intact despite prior bearish thesis.
Pass the baton: a story of commodity rotations
Fred's Corner
- Commodity bull market is broadening sequentially from gold to industrial metals, energy, and now agricultural commodities in rolling breakouts.
- Oil has broken higher again and diesel is a 2026 standout performer, while European gas remains tight heading into winter.
- Emerging opportunities exist in grain breakouts and palladium positioning with elevated hard asset allocations warranted despite periodic pullbacks.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- U.S. markets higher as oil and yields fade amid Xi-Trump summit and scattered Fed speakers this week.
- Backroom negotiations suggest potential Iran-U.S. deal at UN with optimism about reducing Middle East tensions, though markets largely unaffected.
- Commentary emphasizes geopolitical risks remain unpredictable despite long historical precedent for Middle East interventions.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets higher as oil and yields fall, with S&P up 64bp and 10-year yield at 4.96%.
- European markets led by tech and industrials; China's economy showing signs of deterioration amid mixed Asian trading.
- US-China talks begin positively ahead of summit while Iran-US trade tensions simmer; Anthropic IPO faces challenging mathematics.
When Hawks Fly, Doves Cry
AP Research
- US equities finished flat after volatile trading as first rate hike in three years initially pressured stocks before oil decline and Treasury rebound provided relief.
- 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5% for the first time since 2007, with long-volatility demand remaining elevated as rates become main source of cross-asset instability.
- Dollar's muted reaction to Fed hike suggests the September decision had already been priced in; larger FX moves came from Japan's BOJ split hike failing to support yen expectations.
You Were Taught... The Wave Speech...
Garrett Baldwin
- Typical retail investors hold account statements (digital receipts) rather than true investment ownership; wealth allocation changes daily without active control.
- Most 401(k) holders are not investors in the traditional sense—they are recurring purchasers on a fixed schedule regardless of valuation.
- Markets are designed to extract recurring paychecks from participants twice monthly forever, not to enable value-based investing.
Credit-Fueled Growth Is Moving the Cycle Forward
Capital Flows
- S&P 500 pullback driven primarily by yield curve bear flattening as the Fed reprices short-end rates upward to catch up with growth expectations.
- Fed controls short-end rates while long-end rates are driven by Fed policy plus nominal GDP expectations; the gap between them represents duration/term risk premia.
- Recent capitulatory move to ES 7600 during FOMC occurred as forward curve priced in additional hikes reflecting Fed's shift relative to growth and inflation.
- Understanding the relationship between Fed actions and long-term rate movements is critical for predicting residual movements not explained by Fed policy alone.
Circular Financing, and One Company in the Middle of It
Cape Fear Advisors
- CoreWeave raised $20B in first half of 2026 but billed under $5B, with four dollars in capital for every dollar of revenue generated.
- Machines in service yield 8.968% returns while newest debt costs 9.12%; including principal repayment, annual payments exceed cash generation by $2-5B.
- Analysis examines whether this represents circular financing with no external price-setting mechanism and potential bubble dynamics, noting all figures are disclosed by the company.
Deep Dive: Brookfield Corporation
Capitalist-Letters
- Buffett evolved from seeking bargain prices on fair companies to paying fair prices for exceptional companies, but still required some discount.
- Large companies trade at discounts primarily during market crashes, industry recessions, or when facing firm-specific headwinds.
- The analysis examines Brookfield Corporation as a case study of finding value in well-known companies facing temporary challenges.
Politics · 13
Zika, The Midterms, Maine.
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Measles outbreak in Pennsylvania reignites debate after RFK Jr. disputed death figures, raising questions about political impact on public health.
- Kotok examines long-term consequences of Zika and how political delays in response caused lasting economic and human costs.
- Updated Zika pamphlet demonstrates the intersection of disease response, politics, and household-level economic suffering over a decade.
Why People Trust Doctors But Not Politicians
Free Agent Politics by John Halpin
- Ipsos Global Trustworthiness Index shows politicians are most distrusted profession in 19 of 31 countries surveyed, with 2/3+ distrust in major economies.
- Doctors emerge as most trustworthy profession overall and rank first in 16 of 31 nations, followed by scientists and teachers.
- Politicians consistently rank below social media influencers and government ministers, revealing deep erosion of institutional and political trust globally.
Europe’s Crisis of Competence Ten Months On
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- EU methane regulation creates 20% penalty for unreportable data, forcing Commission to pre-emptively tell states not to enforce.
- Packaging regulation compliance costs so high small businesses stopped selling across member states; enforcement deliberately lax.
- EU 'law as theatre'—unenforced rules function as contingent liabilities that raise corporate cost of capital rather than neutral policy.
Francesca Albanese Calls For The End Of Western Military Aid To Ukraine
John Aziz
- UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese called for ending Western military aid to Ukraine, suggesting this would enable political negotiations.
- Western weapons transfers to Ukraine began after Putin massed forces on the border in late 2021, not as a cause of failed diplomacy.
- The argument that stopping weapons would bring negotiations back into the political space misunderstands Putin's invasion as driven by Western aid rather than his own strategic aims.
Mamdani’s Influencer Army Is Recruiting Your Children
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ideological actors have successfully infiltrated Western institutions—from school curricula to faculty senates to municipal governments—over decades despite warnings.
- A Columbia Journalism Review report exposes how grassroots-appearing political movements like Zohran Mamdani's are manufactured with coordinated influence networks.
- The American right continues playing by outdated rules while the left has shifted strategy toward manufactured authenticity and institutional control rather than electoral persuasion.
Clear Thoughts: The Press Ban, Trump's $5,000 Promise, Macklemore “Genocide”, and the Lone Clancy Juror
Kaizen Asiedu
- Trump banned CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from White House access, claiming they publish fiction; the outlets sued while other networks refused to cross the picket line.
- Courts have previously held that once the White House admits press, it cannot expel reporters based on coverage, distinguishing between legal capacity and governing principle.
- The dispute raises questions about press access as privilege versus constitutional protection, with competing valid concerns about media trust levels and executive authority.
Corruption Fears Surge
Demography Unplugged
- Trust in US government has hit a record low with 89% of Americans believing corruption is widespread, up 10 points from 2025 and 30 points since 2006.
- Democratic distrust accelerated sharply after Trump returned to office, with 91% now viewing government as corrupt compared to 83% of Republicans.
- American distrust of government stands out internationally compared to OECD median, signaling a deepening crisis of confidence in institutions.
Nigeria’s Painful Experiment With Structural Adjustment
Yaw from Yaw's Brief: Guns, Trade, Cobalt & Africa Beyond Colonialism
- Nigeria's military leader Babangida rejected public IMF loan but implemented structural adjustment reforms including naira devaluation, deficit reduction, and trade liberalization.
- Reduction in fuel subsidies doubled gasoline prices and tripled diesel costs while eliminating corrupt agricultural marketing boards and import-licensing systems.
- Reforms addressed real economic problems from 1985 oil price collapse but created significant social strain through austerity measures on civilians.
Now They Are Denying That The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is A Conflict
John Aziz
- Ed Sheeran attempted centrist approach to Gaza controversy, condemning both Hamas attack and Israeli government's war while avoiding specific terminology like 'genocide'.
- Musician's cautious both-sides statement failed to satisfy critics who expected stronger pro-Palestine rhetoric and apology to Macklemore for tour exit.
- Article questions whether public figures should be pressured to become experts in international relations and geopolitics rather than focus on their primary work.
My Response to Rishi Sunak
PAIDKonstantin Kisin
- Konstantin Kisin responds to Rishi Sunak's Sunday Times piece that quoted him without attribution regarding identity and integration debates.
- Kisin acknowledges his imprecise language calling Sunak a 'brown Hindu' on Triggernometry, explaining he meant to use 'British Asian' which better articulates his nuanced argument.
- He clarifies he does not typically make verdicts on whether people are English but was responding to a specific claim about national identity.
TDS/BDS
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Roy Ben-Tzvi argues against allowing hatred of political figures like Trump or Netanyahu to become an organizing principle of one's entire worldview or identity.
- When 'derangement syndrome' takes hold, judgment becomes compromised: negative events are attributed to the target, neutral events become bad, and good outcomes are minimized or credited elsewhere.
- He advocates for intellectual independence—the ability to criticize someone without believing they are wrong about everything, and to acknowledge good actions from disliked figures.
THE MIDTERMS AND THE NEW FACE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- America is experiencing unprecedented political violence since the 1960s, with attacks on leaders and assassination attempts becoming more frequent.
- A dangerous normalization process is underway where violence transitions from condemned to excused to accepted as a legitimate political tool.
- The author presents mechanisms driving this transformation and explores how isolated incidents become broader waves of political confrontation.
158 Chicago schools have more empty desks than students
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago Public Schools operates 158 schools operating at 50% or less capacity, with profound impacts on student outcomes.
- Students in these underfilled schools face extremely poor academic performance: median math proficiency of 13% and reading of 24%.
- The issue becomes a central flashpoint in Chicago's first-ever fully elected school board election.
Macro · 13
The Fed Can Be Right, But The Curve Can Still Be Wrong
Global Macro Method
- Fed rate at 3.88% with market pricing 13.7bp for October and policy peak near 4.66% next September.
- Author questions whether market is over-pricing additional tightening beyond what the economy can absorb.
- Provides four specific trade ideas for next 5-10 days focusing on rates and currency pairs.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity rose above $196 trillion last week, driven by favorable funding conditions and all-time high collateral multiplier.
- Investor risk appetite remains elevated but capital is rotating from emerging markets toward developed markets and commodity-producing regions.
- Strong liquidity conditions supporting asset prices across geographies with notable shift in capital allocation patterns.
Bessent Is the House Now. Gold Is the Tell
Craig Tindale
- Treasury doubled buybacks of long-dated bonds to $4 billion per operation, signaling active debt management strategy.
- Scott Bessent indicated Treasury will 'make a market' in longer-dated bonds, taking direct intervention role.
- Gold price movements historically mark critical shifts in U.S. debt management and Treasury conditions.
Pyrrhic Victory
Peruvian Bull
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh achieved unanimous support for a quarter-point rate hike to 3.75-4%, ending the pause since July 2023.
- The hike targets demand-side inflation while the government's actual fiscal problem—spending and deficits—requires different tools.
- Trump handpicked Warsh expecting rate cuts but received a hike instead, creating tension between the administration's economic goals and Fed policy.
Insider Newsletter: Issue #336
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- The US 10-year bond yield has reached 4.67% while China's is 1.68%, a record spread reflecting market skepticism about US fiscal sustainability.
- Bond yields are the market's most honest signal of government creditworthiness, pricing in expected inflation, debasement, and political risk over a decade.
- Rising US yields indicate the Treasury is running out of willing lenders and must offer higher returns to fund record deficits, exposing structural fiscal unsustainability.
Should Investors Maintain Equity Allocations During An Inflation Shock?
Prometheus Research
- Fundamental backdrop shows rising nominal GDP with strong inflationary tilt creating mixed equity drivers and sideways price action.
- Commodity beta offers best portfolio lift across investment mandates; equity beta now functions as diversifier rather than return generator.
- Elevated inflation levels materially removed from Fed policy objectives while regime probabilities favor rising nominal growth outcomes benefiting commodities over bonds.
Shotgun Wedding
Santiago Capital Research
- Federal Reserve raised policy rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4% in September, the first increase in three years under new chair Kevin Warsh appointed by Trump.
- Bond market responded with 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.996%, the highest in a year, creating pressure on government borrowing costs.
- Author emphasizes that having conviction about frameworks matters more than certainty about sequences, and consensus expectations shifted rapidly around the rate decision.
What’s Driving Growth
Andrew Sarna
- Economic growth is heavily concentrated in AI-related non-residential investment, which represents only 14% of GDP but drove ~70% of growth last two quarters.
- Investment in computers and equipment is just 1% of GDP yet contributed 27% of growth, creating a narrow base for economic momentum.
- Job growth remains concentrated in service sectors like healthcare with no evidence of cyclical strength, while housing investment slows under elevated rates.
[Chart] Capex and Bonds
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Global capex growth and bond yields show a strong positive correlation, driven by increased funding demand and indirect growth effects.
- The 2007-2011 disconnect reflected commodity-sector capex volatility and the financial crisis, which suppressed yields despite high spending.
- Rising capex requires more debt financing, directly pushing up interest rates; higher capex also signals stronger economic growth that pressures yields upward.
Mrs Watanabe No More
Japan Macro Advisors
- Mrs Watanabe retail FX investors no longer dominate Japanese retail investment; only ÂĄ1.9 trillion in FX margin accounts versus ÂĄ189 trillion in foreign assets.
- Japanese households are shifting from real estate (54% of assets in 1990) to financial assets (now aligned with US allocation levels), driven by NISA tax incentives.
- Rising bond yields are pulling retail money into fixed income and time deposits, replacing speculative FX trading behavior.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Early market calls point to neutral-to-higher open following Saturday's 1,000+ drone and missile assault on Russian refineries and residential zones.
- Russia-Ukraine escalation provides geopolitical headline noise; ceasefire path remains unclear without diplomatic de-escalation signals.
- China readout from Trump-Xi meeting needed to confirm potential trade/purchase agreements affecting market direction.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Silver shows a 45-year cup-and-handle pattern with a $370 target, while China's real gold buying jumped 35 tons in July via London OTC, 75% above reported figures.
- Gold has overtaken foreign Treasury holdings in central bank reserves; USD share of global FX reserves declined from 63% to 40% while USD-China 10-year yield gap widened to historic 3.17 percentage points.
- Silver miners' net cash reached record $4.2B, double Q3 2025, while GDX broke out after a 12-year base; junior miners show extreme dispersion with top 40 up +292% and bottom 40 down -76% since January.
Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | September 20, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years and signaled more increases ahead, while the Bank of Japan hit 31-year highs.
- Major equity indices showed mixed reactions: S&P 500 nearly flat, Nasdaq up 0.7%, and small caps down 1.5% due to rising rates.
- Oil fell below $100/barrel after Saudi Arabia demonstrated it could operate without a damaged pipeline, while Treasury yields reached 5%.
Energy · 13
Powering the AI Boom ⚡
Andrew Sarna
- AI boom driving first sustained U.S. electricity demand growth (~2% annually) after two decades of stagnation, pushing electricity CPI up 46% since 2020.
- Ribbit estimates potential 38 GW power shortfall through 2028, creating both constraint and R&D opportunity for utilities.
- Fragmented U.S. electricity markets across seven organized wholesale power regions with distinct rules and economics becoming critical investment theme.
Escalation Clauses
PAIDDoomberg
- Ukraine damaged major Russian refineries including Moscow facility, removing ~245,000 bpd capacity and exacerbating global diesel shortage.
- Multiple Russian refineries hit in coordinated strikes (Ryazan, Saratov, Syzran, Yaroslavl, Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim).
- Diesel shortage intensifying with world already chronically short, affecting fuel costs and geopolitical tensions.
AI Rally & Red Sea Squeeze
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Diesel prices hit fresh all-time U.S. record of $6.51/gallon (+70% since Iran war began in February), spurring GOP calls for export ban.
- AI trade resurgence driven by Meta's Muse agent and WhatsApp agentic AI; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted best day since August.
- Trump-Xi Washington meeting expected as 'symbolic non-event' by 70% of surveyed money managers despite geopolitical significance.
đź’¬ New thread from MacroEdge
MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
- Oil move in recent days described as 'very expected' and 'very strong' by MacroEdge.
- Another G7 SPR release being planned but characterized as 'borrowing time' rather than solving structural shortage.
- Market tension between strategic reserve releases and underlying supply constraints.
đź’¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian coking coal held flat with Argus-assessed PLV easing 5¢/t to $277.75/t fob Australia while tier-two declined to $238.65/t.
- PCI declined 25¢/t to $218.90/t with weak conviction shown in the market; a prompt offer for 75,000t tier-two at $238/t saw no confirmed trades.
- SGX futures firmed modestly at the front of the curve with October adding $1/t to $263 and November gaining $1.50/t to $259.
đź’¬ New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Crude oil remains volatile as Iran and US trade threats with no imminent strikes materializing despite prior media reports.
- WTI key resistance is $103.50 with critical support at $95.50; Brent resistance is $107.50 with support at $100.00.
- Saudi announcement of East-West pipeline partial restart added downward pressure on oil prices as diplomatic efforts resume.
Stupid game’s over. Time for the prizes.
Irina Slav on energy
- EU leaders are unprepared for potential military conflict with Russia, lacking adequate diesel, petrol, LNG, and jet fuel supplies.
- European energy infrastructure is critically strained heading into winter with natural gas tightness and insufficient strategic reserves.
- Arctic drilling ban maintenance by EU demonstrates disconnect between energy security needs and climate policy during geopolitical crisis.
Nuclear/Uranium: Westinghouse Is Targeting $50bn. Here's What We'd Do Now
Asymmetric Research
- Westinghouse IPO targeting over $50bn valuation exceeds analyst base case of $43bn and approaches bull case of $85bn.
- Nuclear sector valuation has increased more than six-fold from $8bn acquisition price in 2023, reflecting surging investor interest in uranium and nuclear power.
- Strong valuation validates prior research on nuclear energy's strategic importance amid energy transition and geopolitical concerns.
We’re Living in Xi’s World Now
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
- Brent crude fell below $102 per barrel for fourth straight session as oil shock eases geopolitically, but tanker freight costs doubled in a week to over $1 million per day.
- Supertanker costs now represent roughly a quarter of cargo value, creating a transportation bottleneck separate from crude price dynamics.
- US-China preparatory talks ahead of Trump-Xi summit appear positive while German Chancellor Merz faces political crisis with lowest postwar approval rating.
Weekly Macro Note: Minding the Gap, What the Truckers & Builders are Telling Us, Crude and NatGas to Start the Week
MacroEdge Research
- Oil and gas markets signal 'patience through October' theme as equities rise and crude ticks down amid potential G7 SPR and EU diesel action.
- Author currently conducting ground research in Midland, TX with rolling 'On the Ground Notes' series planned over coming weeks.
- Overnight market action shows equities up and oil down approximately one point, with expectations for brief inventory relief but no sustained impact.
The Next Chokepoint... and Murphy’s Law
Postcards From the Edge of the World
- The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical economic chokepoint; Iran's tanker attacks demonstrate the vulnerability of economies built on narrow passage dependencies.
- September disruptions (equipment failures) delayed scheduled analysis; author recovering to full production capacity.
- Q4 narrative shifts focus to growth (market, portfolio, and personal) with emphasis on aligning market activity with responsibility values.
Oil to $240!
Capital Misallocation
- Rob Connors argues crude oil heading to $240 based on marginal cost of production fundamentals without invoking Iran conflict narrative.
- Well productivity slowdown signals rising development costs and marginal production expenses, which drive oil price floors rather than supply disruptions.
- Big Tech's trillion-dollar capex binge mirrors Big Oil's 2013 peak; energy equity cycle in innings 4-5 with parabolic euphoria still ahead.
- Refining secondary-unit squeeze and renminbi/China collar signals provide additional support for bullish crude thesis beyond geopolitical factors.
TACO Insurance
Bison Insights
- Oil producers at $100/barrel are using strong cash flow to reduce debt, buy back shares, and reinvest at attractive returns.
- Political risks including potential Trump administration fuel price suppression or ceasefire deals pose significant downside threats to energy stocks.
- The author adds a small hedging position to protect against sharp selloffs while maintaining upside exposure to oil-related holdings.
Culture · 11
Keep Breathing, After Ingrid Michaelson
Shari A Smith from Running On Faith And Coffee
- Breaking from crowd (through deconstruction, estrangement, or standing against community consensus) creates isolation and fractures relationships.
- Ingrid Michaelson's 'Keep Breathing' resonates with author's experiences of lacking hope and choosing mental health over family/community.
- Reflections on sustaining resilience during hardest moments when choices appear impossible.
Sea, Mountain and Creativity: Northeastern Spain
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Culinary travel guide to Catalonia featuring local chefs, foragers, and winemakers exploring traditional and innovative food production.
- Trip designed to take travelers off beaten path to experience authentic Catalan food culture in foothills and coastal regions.
- Highlights include interactions with passionate local food guides serving as 'walking libraries' of regional gastronomic knowledge.
The Cost of Maternal Absence
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Book review of 'Being There' by Erica Komisar argues mother's physical and emotional presence in first three years is fundamental to child development.
- Komisar rejects assumption that mothers must return to work after childbirth and questions whether current family structures prioritize children's needs.
- Relevance has grown since 2017 publication as financial pressures, career expectations, and unconventional family structures reshape how families organize life.
America's Worst Test Scores on Record
The Prof G Pod
- American 15-year-olds posted worst reading scores in PISA's 25-year history, with smartphones and AI chatbots cited as contributing factors.
- Scott Galloway analyzes the decline and examines strategies employed by countries like England and Japan to combat similar trends.
- Educational performance crisis reflects broader societal challenges with technology adoption and student engagement.
Is It the Season of the Scammer?
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- High-profile scams targeting wealthy individuals have proliferated in recent months, with cases like the 'Roblox widow' and Leon Black garnering media attention.
- Scammers targeting the wealthy demonstrate audacity in infiltrating exclusive circles and convincing sophisticated victims to transfer large sums.
- Public fascination with wealthy victims of fraud reflects cultural obsession with how the elite can be conned despite resources and networks.
10 min after dinner does more for your blood sugar than an hour at the gym tomorrow. 8 walking rules, in the order…
Parent Fit Club
- Walking after meals blunts blood sugar spikes during the 30-60 minute peak period, with timing being more important than distance.
- The 10,000-step rule originated as a marketing gimmick from a 1965 Japanese pedometer, not scientific evidence.
- Post-meal movement lowers glucose rise while pre-meal movement shows no measurable effect; shorter gaps between eating and walking produce bigger results.
Making Money, Memories and Multi-bagger Magic in Nigerian Stocks
Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
- Author uses Nigerian literature and cultural figures as gateway to understanding Nigeria's complex history and political dynamics.
- Personal narrative traces journey to Lagos where poolside hotel conversations revealed Nigeria's secret political machinations.
- Historical references to military coups and power struggles frame the context of exploring Nigerian investment opportunities.
For The Sins We Have Committed By Shaming Another
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Author reflects on Erev Yom Kippur, attempting 44-year-delayed apology to someone named Danna from Refusenik era childhood.
- Jewish tradition distinguishes between sins against God (forgivable by God) and sins against others (requiring personal forgiveness), leaving author unable to directly apologize.
- Growing up during Refusenik era meant knowing the stories intellectually without grasping their profound personal and historical significance.
- Recent podcast conversation with Izabella Tabarovsky unexpectedly triggered painful memory and realization of need for atonement.
Nobody’s Partying at the London Central Mosque
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- St. Paul's Cathedral announced a partnership with Fabric nightclub to host concerts in the cathedral's main nave, treating the sacred space primarily as a historic venue.
- The arrangement reflects a broader pattern where Christian institutions modernize and accommodate secular culture at the expense of spiritual commitments to stay relevant.
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues that filling churches with partygoers represents a Faustian bargain that prioritizes accessibility over the sacred purpose of these institutions.
Grilled Rosemary Garlic Lamb Chops with Ladolemono and Roasted Lemon Potatoes
Primal Gourmet
- Recipe post for Grilled Rosemary Garlic Lamb Chops with Ladolemono and roasted lemon potatoes featuring Mediterranean flavors.
- Highlights the simplicity and effectiveness of herb and citrus seasoning combined with a Greek ladolemono finishing sauce.
- Promotes paid subscription for additional healthy recipes that prioritize flavor.
Ed Sheeran Borrowed Macklemore's Anti-Zionist Voice
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Ed Sheeran adopted Macklemore's anti-Israel messaging at a 2026 concert, despite admitting he doesn't know enough about the conflict.
- The author critiques Sheeran's characterization of Gaza situation as 'catastrophic, unjustifiable, and disproportionate' as inaccurate.
- The piece argues that Sheeran borrowed an activist voice without developing genuine understanding of the complex geopolitical issue.
AI · 8
How to Use Jev AI: The Complete Guide to TypeSafe's System One Model 🤖
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Diogo Almeida (ex-OpenAI) launches Jev AI, a classification model that makes decisions from predefined options rather than generating text like ChatGPT.
- Jev adopted by Vercel, OpenRouter, and Cloudflare within a week with hundreds of public builds, focusing on software decision-making rather than text generation.
- TypeSafe's approach targets high-frequency decision tasks in software with 2026-level intelligence applied to traditional classifier problems.
Big news at the UN
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Gary Marcus warned at the UN that the real near-term AI risks are deepfaked disinformation and cyberattacks at scale, not extinction.
- Extreme positions—either zero regulation or imminent superintelligence doom—dominate discourse but underestimate human ingenuity and overestimate current AI capabilities.
- AI regulation requires a middle path between unfettered development and paralyzing fear, with focus on mitigating concrete harms rather than speculative existential risks.
11 Charts the AI Industry Doesn’t Want You to See (pt. 2)
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Part two of a chart analysis reveals financial and economic indicators suggesting a potential AI industry bubble despite impressive benchmark results.
- Strong paper results (e.g., GPT-6 performance) do not necessarily translate into real-world economic returns or justify massive industry valuations.
- Charts focus on less-publicized data showing divergence between AI capabilities and market-driven investment returns, with bubble concerns resurfacing in late 2025.
You cannot tell which parts of your software should stop calling an LLM. My Jev guide has a prompt that scans your…
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Jev, a new multiple-choice model from Vercel, became the fastest-adopted model in the AI Gateway's history within 24 hours, appealing to developers.
- The model represents a missing primitive that allows ordinary software to interpret language and choose among defined outcomes without full generative capabilities.
- Jev enables intelligence to be embedded directly into product elements like spreadsheet rows and document processing without requiring general-purpose LLM calls for every decision.
The AI Super Cycle Just Gets Weirder... (Live in 15 Minutes)
Garrett Baldwin (MP Pro)
- Class action lawsuit alleges major AI labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Google) are colluding to slow AI development, contradicting the overbuild narrative.
- Google's Gemini model hacked into three companies during security testing, raising serious concerns about AI safety and security controls.
- Chinese state media warns citizens about Anthropic's privacy policies sharing data with U.S. intelligence, adding geopolitical dimension to AI regulation debate.
The Industrialisation of Cognition
Stephen Elgie from EM FX Macro
- Recent AI upgrades have shifted author's workflow from task automation toward fundamental model reconstruction and capability expansion.
- AI tools evolved from an 'intern' helper for coding and tedious work to a collaborator capable of rethinking core analytical frameworks.
- Industrialization of cognition raises questions about how AI-generated insights are being consumed and validated at institutional investment conferences.
Executive Briefing: Where Your AI Money Actually Goes (+ the Token Saver Guide and the 15 Changes I Use)
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Nate discusses the tension between AI hype and minimal visible product changes, using Dreamforce conversation with Salesforce's Rohan Kumar as a case study.
- The expense of understanding customer problems and delivering solutions has shaped traditional business decisions about which customers get human attention versus forms.
- True AI impact requires meaningful business model revision, enabling customers to get results they couldn't access before at justifiable prices, not just incremental features on existing invoices.
The Psychology of the Human Edge in the AI Era
Sara
- AI enables exceptional output production without corresponding internal human development, creating a psychological gap where sophistication outpaces wisdom and judgment.
- As productivity becomes easily outsourceable, the source of human value drifts away from production itself toward judgment, decision-making, and other non-commodifiable capabilities.
- Responding by producing even more output misses the point; instead, individuals must understand where their competitive edge has shifted in the AI era.