★ Priority · 15
2 risk premiums that work together
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- TIPS real yields have risen 116bp to 2.91% over the past year, making them more attractive than nominal Treasuries at current levels.
- Breakeven inflation expectations appear cheap excluding recent months, with 10y breakeven at 2.33% versus historical comparisons.
- Portfolio construction can stack TIPS with oil as a two-asset portfolio to combine risk premiums and explore edge, sizing, and dynamic management.
Market Update & Signals 10/15/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- S&P 500 broke its 53-day low-volatility streak with a 1.11% decline, the longest such streak in nearly 7 years.
- Breadth was unexpectedly strong with 68% of S&P stocks outperforming the index and nine of eleven sectors up, signaling a healthy correction.
- Support levels for key indices identified: SPY gaps at $764/$778, QQQ at $721/$746/$760, with sector-specific technicals suggesting potential near-term reactions.
Has Sally Rooney Been Censored? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Sally Rooney's publisher is pulling her books from British stores due to her pledge to fund Palestine Action, a designated terrorist organization.
- The issue is not censorship but whether Britain correctly designated Palestine Action as terrorist; Rooney's political beliefs themselves are not the publisher's concern.
- Free speech advocates claiming Rooney as a martyr are missing the core legal question about the terrorism designation itself.
Energy Thoughts, 1994 vibes, Concentration Spin, and the Double Tap
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- CPI came in hotter than expected at +0.3% MoM, with WTI closing the discount to Brent amid geopolitical tensions.
- Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are scattering routes and affecting crew availability, with a container ship sinking and a dry bulker potentially following.
- Military cargo flights have nearly doubled since August, signaling either negotiation posturing or escalation ahead of potential geopolitical developments.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- CPI printed hotter at +0.3% MoM versus expected +0.2%, indicating persistent inflation despite seasonal adjustments.
- Starlink restricted access to Ukraine, highlighting Europe's vulnerability and creating opportunity for Eutelsat and partnerships like AVIO with Lockheed Martin for rocket motors.
- Coreweave bonds trading at 15% yield, reflecting distress in the AI infrastructure sector amid elevated borrowing costs.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- CPI printed hotter at +0.3% MoM versus expected +0.2%, indicating persistent inflation despite seasonal adjustments.
- Starlink restricted access to Ukraine, highlighting Europe's vulnerability and creating opportunity for Eutelsat and partnerships like AVIO with Lockheed Martin for rocket motors.
- Coreweave bonds trading at 15% yield, reflecting distress in the AI infrastructure sector amid elevated borrowing costs.
WHERE ARE WE WITH GLD/TLT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- GLD/TLT has not achieved a new high since January with a downward-pointing 200-day moving average, signaling weakening momentum in the gold-to-bonds trade.
- Recent positioning lightening in the trade, evidenced by declining GLD shares outstanding, suggests diminishing crowding despite the trade's historical success.
- Author acknowledges the risk of being wed to an outdated thesis and may need to exit the trade if long-term structure breaks, despite it having worked well historically.
you can’t change minds
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- LTCM's collapse stemmed from poor position sizing decisions rather than flawed trade selection, highlighting that how much to invest is as critical as what to invest in.
- A favorable 60/40 coin flip example demonstrates that maximizing expected wealth requires careful bet sizing—betting everything on each flip would nearly certainly result in bankruptcy despite positive expected value.
- Financial media focuses overwhelmingly on stock selection while neglecting the equally important and arguably easier problem of position sizing and risk management.
Market Update & Signals 10/14/26
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- A Summation Index buy signal has triggered, with investors potentially unprepared for this asymmetry that could generate significant alpha during earnings season.
- CPI data release today is expected to show slightly higher headline inflation with stabilized core, potentially confirming the technical buy signal if markets react as anticipated.
- Flows are moving into value and defensive groups (ITB, XLU, XLB, DVY, HDV, SPLV) while SPY remains coiled below all-time highs and SMH is finding support at the 50-day moving average.
Who Will Govern Israel? Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Israeli elections in two weeks represent the first vote since October 7, 2023, with tight polling between incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff.
- The election serves as a verdict on Netanyahu's 19-year tenure leading Israel and represents a critical fork in the road for the Jewish state during a multifront conflict.
- The outcome will be watched globally as a gauge of both Israel's internal political direction and the international consensus on Netanyahu's leadership during the country's most challenging period.
(WOMM) No Bargains
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Professional investor running subscription service admits difficulty finding stocks trading at substantial discounts to intrinsic value in current market.
- Despite extensive search for neglected companies and overlooked angles, analysis consistently leads to empty-handed conclusions rather than actionable opportunities.
- Author prioritizes investment integrity over subscriber growth, refusing to change investment approach to attract subscribers or meet artificial content quotas.
Douglas Murray: The International Criminal Court Is a Sham
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- ICC functions as political tool rather than impartial court, with single-country agenda items and selective enforcement.
- International institutions like ICJ and UNHRC have become instrumentalized to advance predetermined political narratives.
- U.S. refusal to submit to ICC jurisdiction reflects principled stance that American justice should supersede foreign court systems.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- AI trade showing excessive retail participation with investors lacking fundamental understanding of the sector.
- NASDAQ put positions purchased on Oct 9th have doubled, offering opportunity to lock in profits.
- Price action around headlines more important than headlines themselves for determining current market regime.
END OF THE AI TRADE?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- DeepSeek LLM model did not deflate AI stack as expected, suggesting market complexity extends beyond simple competitive dynamics.
- CXMT memory chip breakthrough claims are unverifiable and easier to contain than open DeepSeek models.
- AI sector valuation warrants reassessment using capital war framework, SpaceX weakness, and DRAM pricing as key indicators.
The AI Slop of Hope™️
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- AI trade investors show poor fundamental understanding, confusing gross and net revenues leading to volatile selloffs.
- Broadcom CEO warns many investors treat AI sector like a casino without understanding what they own.
- Market transitioning from bull market's 'wall of worry' to bear market's 'slope of hope' amid AI hype saturation.
Politics · 16
Elizabeth Warren is the Albertsons Store Brand Cola of Financial Policy.
Garrett Baldwin
- Senator Elizabeth Warren's proposal to raise corporate buyback tax from 1% to 4% risks creating unintended consequences and perverse incentives.
- Warren's policy assumes companies will redirect capital from buybacks to factory expansion, ignoring behavioral economics and actual firm decision-making.
- Critics argue Warren's ideas have contributed to financialization of US economy and that opposite policies would better incentivize productive capital investment.
Palestine & The Shadow Of Al-Andalus
John Aziz
- Palestinian intellectual Abdullah Mukhlis warned in 1910 that Arab settlers feared displacement similar to Muslims expelled from Al-Andalus.
- Mukhlis himself was an Ottoman-era migrant who moved to Palestine as a child and became a prominent historian and Islamic Waqf director.
- The excerpt explores how migration patterns and historical parallels shaped Palestinian concerns about demographic and territorial changes.
It Is Our Right, It Is Our Duty to Abolish the British State
Peter McCormack Newsletter
- Author argues that voting harder within the current British political system cannot reverse national decline because the state machinery itself is the problem.
- Decades of replacing politicians while preserving institutional structures have failed to improve living standards or voter empowerment.
- The piece frames the need for systemic change rather than incremental political solutions to address voter powerlessness and government interference.
NEW WAYS TO LOSE
The Oracle by Polymarket
- Maine Senate race between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tightens after Democratic candidate swap following original nominee's sexual assault allegations.
- NYT-Siena poll shows Collins leading Jackson by 3 points in late September, marking first time Collins held lead in the race.
- Collins demonstrates strong crossover appeal, winning 12% of Kamala Harris voters despite partisan polarization.
- Post includes promotional offer for Polymarket trading platform with $25 first deposit bonus.
French Students Are Protesting a State That Has Failed Them
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- French students protesting deteriorating public schools and lack of infrastructure investment reveals fundamental state legitimacy crisis.
- France's centralized education system concentrates government responsibility, making institutional failures a direct indictment of state capacity.
- Centuries of education reform have progressively centralized control, tracing back to Napoleon's efforts to secure loyal administrators.
- Government failure in delivering basic services erodes democratic stability when state assumes extraordinary responsibility for civic life.
White Guilt Is White Supremacy
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- White guilt functions as redemptive mechanism allowing whites to escape moral accusations tied to racial identity.
- Concept extends beyond black-white dichotomy to broader ideological framework influencing contemporary politics.
- Personal reflection on decades-long friendship with Victor Davis Hanson contextualizes discussion of racial guilt and supremacy.
- Features podcast conversation with highlights on how guilt-based frameworks perpetuate systemic thinking about race and morality.
Is America Abandoning the Endless Frontier?
Prof G Research Team
- Nearly $200 billion in federal research funding has been cut, delayed, or disrupted across 17 policy sectors since Trump's return to office, affecting long-term basic science programs.
- Federal support for early-stage, seemingly obscure research has historically been critical for major breakthroughs like GLP-1 drugs and cancer treatments that emerged decades after initial funding.
- Reallocation of research grants toward administration priorities like AI and quantum computing risks losing transformative discoveries that could emerge 20+ years in the future.
Can we trust the polls this year?
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Democrats hold average 8-point generic ballot advantage for House with eight Republican Senate seats rated as toss-ups versus two Democratic seats, shifting expectations toward potential landslide.
- Persistent polling errors in recent elections cast significant doubt on reliability of polls as accurate forecasts for 2022 midterms.
- Analysis examines root causes of polling bias and why systematic errors may again mislead election watchers and market participants.
Peace Derangement Syndrome
John Aziz
- Advocates for Arab-Jewish coexistence face abuse from both antizionist extremists and Kahanist fringes who reject compromise.
- Equating Israeli actions to genocide delegitimizes peace efforts by framing conflict as existential rather than negotiable.
- Meaningful dialogue requires rejecting deranged extremes on both sides and acknowledging decades of jihadism, antisemitism, and October 7.
Macron Has Failed France
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Macron's approval rating has collapsed to 18%, with 80% of French rejecting his leadership amid fuel crisis and security concerns.
- His policy failures on safety and national strength have created political vacuum allowing Marine Le Pen's National Rally to surge.
- Le Pen now leads in polling after rising from wreckage of French political center, threatening traditional centrist dominance.
Democrats Are Gaining Ground Ahead of November. But with Which Voters?
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- Democrats lead generic congressional ballot by 8.6 points heading into 2026 midterms, matching their 2018 popular vote margin.
- National polling can mask individual race dynamics; 2022 showed Republicans won House vote despite trailing on generic ballot.
- Key question remains which voter demographics Democrats are gaining ground with, not just overall margin improvements.
The children had names
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- The funeral of Shiri Bibas and her sons, killed by Hamas, drew tens of thousands of Israelis, demonstrating the power of the 'identifiable victim effect' in generating public sympathy.
- Israel's government failed to provide sustained support to the families who kept their abducted children recognizable to the world, representing a failure of both compassion and strategic communication.
- Psychological research shows people donate more readily to named individuals than to abstract statistics about suffering, yet governments often underutilize this insight in policy and messaging.
VIRAL -- ELI STEELE: NYC ICE Shooting Exposes How White Guilt Erases Personal Responsibility
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- A Democratic Socialist politician argued that an alleged shooter bore no personal responsibility for his actions, exemplifying how 'white guilt' narratives can erase individual accountability.
- The article compares this rhetoric to Dick Gregory's argument that centuries of oppression rendered responsibility irrelevant, critiquing how some progressives extend this logic to criminal actors.
- The piece, which went viral on Fox News, highlights the tension between systemic injustice narratives and the assignment of personal moral responsibility.
Why the Far Right Is Winning in Germany (and Why You Should Care)
The Prof G Pod
- The far-right AfD party now leads German national polls, having grown from grievances rooted in the eurozone debt crisis and 2015 refugee wave.
- Germany's populist surge mirrors broader European trends, from Le Pen's National Rally in France to Reform UK, with parallels to MAGA in the U.S.
- Scott Galloway analyzes the structural conditions enabling far-right gains across democracies, with a second installment forthcoming.
‘They Tried To Jail Me’ Migrant Assault Victim Nearly JAILED for Speaking Out… - Thaïs d’Escufon
PAIDWinston Marshall
- French activist Thaïs d'Escufon faced criminal conviction and fines for speaking publicly about immigration and crime, despite being an assault victim herself.
- The case illustrates how censorship laws and social pressure in France restrict open debate on sensitive topics like mass immigration.
- The podcast episode explores broader unrest sweeping France and the silencing of dissent on contentious social issues.
Marijuana Use Rebounds
Demography Unplugged
- Marijuana use rebounded to 17% of US adults in 2026, up 4 percentage points from 2024 and matching 2023 highs.
- Public perception shifting with negative perception falling to 46% while 47% now see positive effects.
- Trump administration softening stance on marijuana, supporting state-licensed medical cannabis reclassification.
Macro · 13
Macro Report: The Problem Didn’t Go Away
Global Macro Method
- Recent rate reversal reflects investor concern about expensive money damaging businesses in the AI-driven growth story, not a shift in inflation views.
- Government bonds increasingly function as protection against tightening consequences rather than pure inflation hedges as equities sold off.
- Higher inflation can justify additional Fed hikes while simultaneously making investors less confident about how much tightening the economy can ultimately absorb.
Buying the Promise, Waiting for Proof
AP Research
- Brazilian markets awarded Bolsonaro a sizeable credibility premium after his first-round victory with 47% to Lula's 45.2%, with the real rising 4% and swaps down 90bps.
- Prediction markets price Bolsonaro's runoff victory at above 80% probability, with historical precedent suggesting first-round leaders consistently win the runoff.
- Markets are pricing in reforms and fiscal discipline from a government that does not yet exist and has not demonstrated delivery capability on investor expectations.
The Gradual Print & Kospi Crash
Hypernormal Times
- US CPI beat expectations at 3.7% YoY with core inflation at 2.6%, triggering sharp selloff across equities and a mini VaR shock.
- Asia hit harder than US with Korea's Kospi tumbling 8% and triggering trading halt as semiconductor names like Samsung and SK Hynix fell ~10%.
- CoreWeave's debt deterioration signals stress in AI infrastructure trade, with bonds due 2032 trading below 78 cents on dollar after trading at par four months prior.
Strategy Note - More Interventions Before Midterms? Portfolio Strategy Note, and GOP Warning Signs for November
MacroEdge Research
- Asia equity market volatility, particularly Korea, expected to trigger emergency interventions by foreign governments ahead of midterm elections.
- Market structure increasingly dependent on equity melting up to offset declining real hourly earnings for lower 90% of wage earners.
- Strategic positioning emphasizes identifying opportunities with healthy pragmatism as global macro dynamics become more complicated and interconnected.
The Great Yen Rebalancing
Takuji Okubo
- Yen has fallen 40% below its 50-year average in real terms despite remaining a reserve currency at 5.8% of global FX reserves.
- Japanese institutional capital including pensions and households repatriated abroad due to weak growth and near-zero yen yields, but trend is now reversing.
- GPIF-led rebalancing could be pivotal driver as deflation ends, 10-year JGB yields return near 3%, and offshoring trend halts.
The Shrugflation Triangle: How AI, Oil, and Treasuries are Impacting the Economy
Kyla’s Newsletter
- AI, Treasury bond yields, and oil prices form interconnected feedback loop driving current economic conditions and inflation dynamics.
- Author traveled across eight U.S. cities gathering firsthand accounts of how consumers experience economy beyond headline metrics.
- Comprehensive analysis connects three core economic factors that typically float independently to explain integrated economic picture.
- Includes audio version and companion paperback with new afterword on tariffs and AI implications.
September Inflation Report
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- September core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.33% MoM versus 0.2% consensus, with core YoY at 2.6%.
- Headline inflation was driven by a 9.1% jump in gasoline prices, pushing YoY headline to 3.7%.
- Broad-based price pressures extended beyond shelter to supercore and core goods, indicating widespread but moderate inflation.
The BoJ Has Reasons Not to Hike Too Soon
Takuji Okubo
- Japan's real estate loans-to-GDP ratio has been near the overheating threshold since the late 2010s, with loans to property investment vehicles showing visible slowdown after a 2022-23 surge.
- A 0.5-point rise in borrowing rates would increase the loss-making share of real estate SMEs from 21.7% to 27%, suggesting the Bank of Japan wants to monitor the impact of recent hikes before further tightening.
- Overall bank loan growth showed marginal easing in Q3 2026 as the positive carry on property investment narrows and new long-term rates approach Tokyo office yields.
War Note: Walking a Tight Rope, CPI Look
MacroEdge Research
- Middle East tensions between Houthis and Saudi Arabia are escalating with potential to disrupt energy supplies, though Trump administration may show restraint pre-midterm.
- Diesel prices at all-time highs and rising gasoline costs threaten to become a political liability for the party in power heading into midterm elections.
- Government has multiple emergency energy measures available (SPR releases, export bans, DPA) that could be deployed if Strait of Hormuz flows are meaningfully impeded.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- CPI and PPI data (Oct 14-15) along with FOMC decision (Oct 28) are critical market tests over next three weeks.
- Major tech earnings (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta after-hours Oct 28; Amazon, Intel Oct 29) will intersect with monetary policy signals.
- ECI report (Oct 30) on wage growth provides crucial test of wage-driven inflation narrative underlying Fed decision-making.
What would Jackson do?
Marvin Barth
- Jacksonian populism framework helps interpret Trump's political decisions and approach to Federal Reserve policy and central banking.
- Kevin Warsh's Fed appointment reflects strategic political logic; his policies prove more complex than anticipated with FOMC consensus challenges.
- Bank deregulation and Fed balance sheet reduction are interconnected; shrinking Fed assets requires unfreezing private sector credit creation.
Transmission
Macro Musings by Danny D
- Australia's RBA raised rates by 100 basis points to 4.6% as unemployment fell and inflation surged to 4.6% in March, though inflation has since cooled to 4%.
- The labor market shows signs of responding to monetary tightening, with unemployment rising from 4.1% to 4.6%, suggesting the RBA may be near the end of its hiking cycle.
- Australia's economy began responding to policy tightening early in the year, with AUDUSD positioned to benefit from the tightening theme.
Blacklion Daily Den Tuesday October 13, 2026
Brent @Blacklioncta from BlacklionCTA Substack
- Federal Reserve signaling continued 'hike and see' approach with incremental 25bps moves despite mixed dovish commentary.
- IMF annual meeting in Bangkok with special appearance from Chair Warsh will dominate central bank speak this week.
- Energy weakness supporting Treasury market while CPI data tomorrow expected to drive rates movement.
Culture · 10
What Kind of Self-Discovery is Resilient?
Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
- Prison Bible study participants consistently cite self-discovery as a key outcome, despite it not being an explicit program goal.
- Anonymous feedback cards from women completing the program highlight themes of mindset change, self-reflection, and recognizing commonalities with peers.
- Self-discovery emerges as an organic benefit of structured faith-based learning in a correctional setting.
On Thin Ice
environMENTAL
- Media overuse of the term 'crisis' has diminished its meaning and created fatigue, making it difficult to distinguish actual crises from routine problems.
- The author examines Webster's definition of crisis across personal, financial, and broader contexts to recalibrate proper usage.
- Some crises are self-inflicted despite warnings, raising questions about human agency and the distinction between unavoidable and preventable crises.
Healthy Pumpkin Caramel Cinnamon Rolls (8g protein, under 275 calories)
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe combines pumpkin and caramel cinnamon rolls with health-focused macros: under 275 calories, 8g protein, and sugar-free using substitutes.
- Uses cottage cheese and egg whites in dough for protein without protein powder, making rolls tender while maintaining nutritional density.
- Demonstrates how traditional indulgent treats can be reformulated with alternative sweeteners and protein sources for guilt-free enjoyment.
Does NYC Have Enough Members Clubs? Here Come Three More.
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Three new members clubs launching in New York including a London institution's debut and another Soho House location.
- Article covers emerging status symbols like resting heart rates, art world developments, and expansion of exclusive club culture.
- Includes map of nearly three dozen major New York members clubs and analysis of who's behind new ventures.
Everyone Else’s Coffee Tastes Better
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- The author observes that everyday activities appear more appealing when watched from a distance than when actually experienced.
- Morning dog walks look idyllic from a car window but feel mundane when actively doing them, creating a perception gap.
- The coffee shop experience gains appeal partly through the contrast with what we imagine others are doing and partly through environmental cues.
Don’t Trust People Who Talk Like This
Ted Gioia
- David Ellison, backed by his father Larry's $40 billion personal guarantee, has become the most powerful person in Hollywood through Warner Bros and Paramount consolidation.
- Ellison speaks in corporate jargon focused on 'verticals,' 'IP scale,' and 'profitable linear portfolios' rather than artistic or audience-focused entertainment goals.
- The language and priorities of new Hollywood leadership reflect Silicon Valley business metrics divorced from traditional creative values.
Born This Way
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Author has Bipolar 1 disorder, one of the most severe forms affecting fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S., with typical outcomes including incarceration, institutionalization, or death.
- Successfully managing this illness and achieving professional success represents a statistical anomaly, as most Bipolar 1 patients struggle with job retention, relationships, and often end up homeless.
- Genetic markers exist for bipolar disorder, suggesting nature-nurture combination contributes to both onset and management outcomes.
Eat Like It’s 1899: crispy chickpea burgers with herb yogurt, in 20 minutes
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Video-based wellness newsletter provides rapid whole-food meal recipes designed to replace ultra-processed foods and support longevity.
- Current episode features crispy chickpea burgers prepared in under 20 minutes with downloadable recipe cards and nutritional profiles for paid subscribers.
- Subscription price increase announced with deadline at end of October 14, offering locked-in lower rates for annual commitments.
A Conversation with James V. Shuls: Restoring the Purpose of American Education
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Education should focus on forming virtuous citizens for self-government rather than workforce training or test scores alone.
- Phoenix Principles framework centers parents, character development, academic excellence, and citizenship responsibilities in K-12 schooling.
- Modern education has lost foundational purpose of sustaining free republic through character formation rooted in traditions and history.
The Art of Getting What You Want
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- Benjamin Franklin negotiated a win-win arrangement with his brother to reduce his board costs, freeing up money for books and study time while reducing his brother's expenses.
- Franklin's early demonstration of negotiation and persuasion skills foreshadowed his later diplomatic success, including securing French alliance during the American Revolution.
- The story illustrates how creative problem-solving and mutual benefit-seeking can resolve seemingly intractable constraints.
Tech · 6
Starling Bank’s Sovereign AI still depends on Google and NVIDIA 🤖🇬🇧; Ramp is building the operating system for …
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Starling Bank's 'sovereign AI' model for UK banking still fundamentally depends on Google and NVIDIA infrastructure despite sovereignty branding.
- Ramp's Glass platform launch attempts to position Ramp as an operating system for AI-native companies, competing against free offerings from Block and Y Combinator.
- Fintech players are racing to integrate AI capabilities while navigating questions of true independence versus reliance on incumbent AI infrastructure providers.
An Israeli Team Built a Password the Enemy Can’t Hear
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israeli startup InTact developed a secure authentication system to prevent friendly fire incidents in military operations.
- The technology addresses both tactical safety and soldier confidence through improved identification capabilities.
- The solution tackles the paradox of modern military communications that still rely on outdated frequency ranges and manual identification.
JPMorgan shut AI Agents out of Chase. Mercury let them in, and AI Assistants now recommend it 5 to 1 😳🏦; Stripe …
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- JPMorgan Chase blocked outside AI agents like Meta's Muse from accessing Chase accounts to protect $2.7 trillion in cheap deposits, while Mercury welcomed them and now receives 5x more recommendations from AI assistants.
- JPMorgan's own Smart Cash AI agent reveals the bank's actual motive for the ban extends beyond security to include deposit retention and customer lock-in strategies.
- Stripe is expanding its Privy wallets to the XRP Ledger while promoting its own Tempo chain and OUSD stablecoin, positioning itself as a key player in the emerging wallet layer of agentic finance.
The Price Increase That Never Happened (128)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Anthropic canceled its planned September 2026 price increase for Sonnet 5, maintaining the lower $2/$10 pricing per million tokens indefinitely instead of raising to $3/$15.
- AI pricing involves two variables—per-token cost and token efficiency—meaning vendors can reduce effective costs by improving model efficiency without changing the headline price.
- Users relying on static pricing files may miss such changes, similar to a grocer reducing cup size without changing the per-cup price.
Twitter/X is thriving, its critics just won't admit it
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Twitter/X has stabilized and recovered under Elon Musk's ownership, contrary to predictions from critics who forecast platform collapse.
- Media outlets and self-appointed experts dismissed X as an unsafe space, driving departures based on ideological opposition rather than actual user experience.
- John Gruber's recent analysis confirms observations that X has 'found its footing,' validating earlier takes predicting the platform's resilience.
Israel’s Answer to the Unjammable Drone Is a Midair Collision
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Israel Aerospace Industries launches HawkGuard system for drone interception, learning from Dutch eagle program failures.
- Midair collision approach to drone defense offers physical solution without explosions over populated areas.
- Previous biological approaches (eagles, sniffer rats) proved unreliable and expensive, driving adoption of technological alternatives.