★ Priority · 15
LOCKED AND LOADED.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Market showing textbook rotation setup with S&P breadth potentially bottoming for fourth time in two years, historically leading to 2-3 month rallies in equal-weight, cyclicals, and rate-sensitives.
- Summation Index turning up while investors fled to cash funds at fastest pace since pandemic ($166.4B into money-market funds), suggesting contrarian opportunity.
- Author updating portfolio positioning to balance risks and capture uncorrelated setups amid macro shifts and upcoming CPI data on October 14.
iron condor destroyer
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Author experimenting with AI-assisted repurposing of Substack content into Instagram Stories and Reels using Meta's Muse tool.
- Newsletter discusses options trading concepts including iron condor strategies and real-world financial comparisons like mortgage refinancing opportunity costs.
- Recent social media content includes physics/investing analogies (Godzilla viability, car leases as options) and the mathematical impact of breaking a 3% mortgage ($188K opportunity cost).
Tough Love: I Opened My Relationship—and Met Another Guy
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Reader in long-term relationship (5 years) with older partner Simon opened relationship during Peace Corps service and met spontaneous younger man Giovanni.
- Core dilemma: choosing between stable, reliable partner and exciting, ambitious alternative; relationship also complicated by stepchild dynamics and difficult ex-spouse.
- Reader returned to US for PhD and ended Giovanni affair but remains uncertain about recommitting to Simon despite his willingness to rebuild.
October’s collective management
PRIORITYMark Farrington from BoJ Watchtower
- BoJ is on track to raise rates in December, but October meeting could become live if ECB or Fed move first due to bond market stress.
- Central banks prioritize managing inflation toward target without engineering recession or demand slack in the economy.
- Yield curve movements depend on growth expectations and supply disruptions; recent steepening followed upgraded growth views and understood refining bottleneck constraints.
- IMF/World Bank meetings in Bangkok will provide opportunity for central bank coordination on bond market dynamics and signaling.
Shrubtivism*
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Snapchat trades at significant discount (7x EBITDA, 1.5x Sales) compared to peers despite 1 billion users and consistent revenue growth above 10% annually.
- Company has issued $8 billion in stock-based compensation equal to its entire market cap while share price declined 80% since IPO.
- Super-voting share structure gives founders complete control, enabling capital misallocation and justifying activist investor scrutiny on compensation and governance.
Frontiering with Michael McGaughy
PRIORITYFerg from Trader Ferg
- Trader Ferg launches a mini-series interviewing frontier and emerging market investors, starting with Michael McGaughy.
- McGaughy's strategy focuses on finding 'double negatives'—hated countries combined with hated industries—to achieve rock-bottom valuations.
- The approach emphasizes long-term positioning in crisis-affected emerging/frontier markets where valuations offer significant upside potential.
Big Tech’s Big Flop. Plus…
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Multiple high-profile tech documentaries and films are being released, including Netflix's 'The Altruists' about Sam Bankman-Fried and Alex Gibney's Elon Musk documentary.
- Aaron Sorkin's 'The Social Reckoning' sequel to 'The Social Network' explores ongoing cultural obsession with wealthy tech figures.
- Wave of tech-focused films reflects broader societal interest in examining the lives and failures of tech billionaires and their impact.
(Idea) Cenovus Energy's Athabasca Acquisition Is No Bargain
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Cenovus Energy's acquisition of Athabasca Oil offers attractive exit for Athabasca shareholders but questionable value for Cenovus shareholders.
- Deal requires substantial capital investment to convert Athabasca's oil sands resource base into actual production over time.
- Analysis of terms and expected cash flows suggests Cenovus is overpaying for future barrels relative to strategic benefit.
Elisha Wiesel: The Death of the Nobel Peace Prize
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Elie Wiesel's son argues the Nobel Peace Prize has lost its moral authority after being awarded to Navi Pillay, who headed a UN commission that weaponized the genocide label against Israel.
- Pillay's commission held Israel to impossible standards not applied to other nations defending themselves, following years of anti-Israel advocacy including calls to sanction 'Apartheid Israel.'
- The award contradicts Elie Wiesel's core principle that 'neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim,' effectively betraying the prize's original mission.
AI AS A MACRO FACTOR
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Chinese AI companies are engaging in aggressive price competition similar to historical steel industry oversupply dynamics.
- DeepSeek and other Chinese AI platforms offer significantly cheaper pricing than Western competitors, creating deflationary pressure.
- Hang Seng Tech Index uncorrelated to Nasdaq/semiconductor indices suggests Chinese tech operates like commodity businesses competing on price.
💬 New thread from HFI Research
PRIORITYHFI Research
- HFI Research opened 250 put spread positions on ARKK expiring March 2027 (long $60 strike, short $50 strike) for $0.50 debit.
- Trade targets 80% profit potential ($10 payout) if ARKK falls to $50 or below within the expiration window.
- Position represents a bearish bet on the ARK Innovation ETF with defined risk and reward parameters.
Where are all the Free Pressers?
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- The Free Press Supper Club brings together subscribers who have never met for intimate dinner conversations.
- Initiative addresses the challenge of finding intellectually interesting people in real life versus online echo chambers.
- Participants report exceptional quality conversations lasting longer than expected with open-minded fellow readers.
Why Millennials Ruin Everything. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Millennials are responsible for cultural phenomena ranging from cancel culture to social media cringe, raising questions about generational identity.
- The generation lacks the cultural achievements of Boomers and reasonable excuses of Zoomers, making them uniquely embarrassing.
- The essay explores why millennials developed their distinctive cultural markers and what they reveal about the cohort's values and behavior.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Oracle CDS trading at 260 bps and 5-year bonds over 2.1% wide versus investment-grade averages of ~117 bps signals potential credit rating pressure.
- BB high-yield junk bonds trading tighter (1.9%) than Oracle's spreads raises questions about ratings agencies' ability to maintain current Oracle rating.
- Situation expected to become top White House priority as credit stress in mega-cap tech potentially morphs into systemic concern.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Market dropped nearly 2% on confusion between $70bn and $50bn OpenAI ARR figures (gross vs. net revenue), signaling investor confusion and hair-trigger sell readiness.
- Bearish signal that retail investors lack fundamental understanding of AI company metrics and are primed to panic sell on any negative news.
- Elon Musk and other promoters rushing to raise capital ($100bn fundraises) amid market volatility and uncertainty about AI valuations.
Politics · 14
Midterms in Florida's 16th: Gruters vs. Kirschner, Prediction Markets and a Dramatic Surprise
David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
- Florida's gerrymandered 16th Congressional District, designed to favor Republican Sydney Gruters, shows unexpected weakness against Democrat Kelly Kirschner per new polling.
- Prominent Republican George Kruse, former Manatee County board chairman, publicly endorsed Democrat Kirschner, suggesting local issues may override party loyalty.
- District spans six counties (Manatee, DeSoto, Hardee, plus parts of Sarasota, Pinellas, Polk) with Gruters backed by Trump-aligned husband Joe Gruters, RNC chair.
Six-Chart Sunday – The Pendulum Always Swings Back: Senate 2026 Edition
Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
- 2026 Senate map nominally favors Republicans but they're playing defense with 7 seats rated toss-up or worse versus only 1 for Democrats.
- Prediction markets increasingly pricing Democratic wave; political pendulum swinging faster in anti-Establishment era with White House changing parties in three straight elections (first time since 1890s).
- Republican spending advantage offset by Supreme Court allowing party committees to buy ads at candidate rates; 8 of 11 Democratic leads smaller than historical October polling misses in their states.
Trump’s Fuel Deal With Putin Risks Throwing Ukraine Under The Bus
John Aziz
- Trump's announced deal for 300,000-1 million tonnes of Russian diesel represents only 14-15 hours of US daily diesel consumption, making it symbolically significant rather than materially impactful.
- Ukrainian government strongly criticized the deal as rewarding Putin and prolonging conflict rather than achieving genuine de-escalation.
- Ukraine responded with major drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure within hours, escalating tensions rather than reducing them.
Antisemitism Is A Cause, Not An Effect
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Third anniversary of October 7 attacks marked by return of last hostage's remains, though ceasefire does not appease antisemitic protesters.
- Pro-Palestinian agitators disrupted a vigil organized by left-wing Israeli peace group, mocking mourners and attacking peaceful ceremony honoring the dead.
- Author argues antisemitism is the root cause driving activism, not a response to policy, evidenced by attempts to prevent Israelis and Jews from mourning their dead.
The BBC’s rotten decision to repeat the grotesque genocide charge against Israel on October 7
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- BBC's October 7 anniversary coverage led with disputed genocide accusations against Israel rather than focusing on the massacre victims and hostages.
- Only 22-24% of the International Association of Genocide Scholars voted on the resolution, undermining the authority the BBC granted the claim.
- Editorial decision to emphasize contested political allegations on the anniversary of the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust was journalistically inappropriate.
Trump’s Iran trap: what would victory actually take?
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- Trump administration faces strategic challenge in defining what victory means in Iran conflict beyond simple military strikes.
- American war aims are ambitious—destroying Iran's navy, preventing nuclear weapons, dismantling missile capabilities—but require sustained commitment and resources.
- Additional airstrikes without clear strategic objectives would deplete U.S. arsenals while failing to achieve meaningful progress toward stated goals.
Trump’s last chance to tango
Gold and geopolitics
- Historical cautionary tale: Mao's 1958 sparrow eradication campaign backfired, causing crop losses by eliminating natural pest control, illustrating unintended consequences of poorly-planned policy.
- The article draws parallels to contemporary geopolitical decision-making, suggesting lessons from history are often ignored by policymakers.
- Context provided for understanding how knee-jerk reactions to perceived problems can create worse outcomes than the original issue.
Islamic Feminism Is Madness
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues American academia falsely promotes Islamic feminism as compatible with liberation despite her lived experience under Islamic law.
- Real-world evidence contradicts academic theory, as seen in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan where girls have been systematically barred from secondary and higher education since 2021.
- The disconnect between Western academic frameworks and ground-truth conditions for women under Islamic governance represents a dangerous intellectual failure.
Zack Polanski Loses The Holborn & St. Pancras By-Election
John Aziz
- Labour retained Keir Starmer's former parliamentary seat in a by-election, with Muslim candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali defeating Green Party leader Zack Polanski.
- Polanski's campaign centered on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with Palestinian flag imagery but no British flags, alienating local voters including Green Party supporters.
- The Green Party's 'Zionism Is Racism' motion drove away voters who felt the party had abandoned mainstream positions on identity and geopolitics.
A Conversation with Robert Pape and Hina Rabbani Khar, Former Foreign Minister of Pakistan
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Saudi Arabia invoked a defensive pact with Pakistan and Turkey, requesting military assistance against Iran-backed Houthi attacks.
- Pakistan's nuclear status makes its military role in the Iran conflict critically important to regional power dynamics.
- Discussion focuses on how Pakistan, China, and Iran will respond to escalating Gulf tensions and Pakistan's commitment of forces.
Asymmetry
Scott Galloway
- Technological superiority does not guarantee military victory; weaker forces have historically defeated stronger ones through asymmetrical warfare.
- The U.S. Air Force withdrew B-1 bombers from a British base after Iranian threats, revealing vulnerability of American military installations abroad and a strategic setback.
- Iran's asymmetrical approach demonstrates the principle that success comes from avoiding conventional combat on the enemy's terms.
THE YEMEN DISASTER: WHY SENDING ARMIES AGAINST THE HOUTHIS WOULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Conquering Houthis in Yemen requires taking mountains that Egypt (70,000 troops) and Saudi Arabia (7 years) failed to capture, making foreign military intervention extremely difficult.
- Escalation Trap spiral phase begins when new foreign actors (Pakistan, Turkey) enter, each bringing credibility and domestic political constraints that force escalatory responses.
- Yemen's infrastructure cannot support foreign armies in highlands; every supply line becomes a target, and each new foreign force gives Iran and Houthis additional escalation incentives.
Prof Pape Live Briefing — Sunday at 2:00 PM ET
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Saudi Arabia faces an escalation trap in Yemen as new actors (Pakistan, Iran) enter the conflict, transforming chosen escalation into forced responses.
- Foreign military intervention in Houthi highlands has historically failed due to geography; Egypt's 70,000 troops and Saudi Arabia's seven-year war both proved ineffective.
- Iranian red lines on offensive operations against Houthis and shipping disruptions at Bab al-Mandeb could trigger regional spiral if Pakistani or other foreign troops cross into Yemen.
Reserved Powers
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- The Tenth Amendment's reserved powers doctrine enables states to compete as laboratories of democracy, with Delaware and Wyoming's corporate innovations reaching Fortune 500 scale.
- Wyoming's 1977 LLC statute adoption without federal approval fundamentally reshaped American business architecture, demonstrating federalism's power over centralized control.
- Federal system functions as R&D program where fifty jurisdictions compete, winners get copied, and losers fail locally—a mechanism for continuous regulatory evolution.
Culture · 10
People Are Rejecting Screens—and Returning to Communal Events
Ted Gioia
- Australian DJ Dom Dolla attracts 60,000+ people to in-person stadium events, representing a major cultural shift toward communal experiences over passive screen consumption.
- Spengler's 1920s prediction that people would tire of machines and seek simpler communal activities appears to be materializing in contemporary entertainment trends.
- Live, in-person concert attendance for emerging artists now dwarfs typical streaming reach, signaling fundamental change in how audiences consume entertainment.
Thiago
Derek Wallis
- Profile features first-person narrative of Thiago, born in southern Brazil to working-class parents, detailing his path from physical training education to martial arts.
- Family emphasized education despite limited formal schooling; sister with PhD pushed intellectual development while father's soccer legacy influenced Thiago's athleticism.
- Thiago discovered jiu-jitsu at age 16-17 in a garage-like gym with ~30-35 students, building foundation in less mainstream martial art compared to soccer's dominance in Brazil.
He Broke the Fourth Wall, So We Flew to Austin
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Podcast host John Papola's fourth-wall-breaking call-out to filmmakers led to direct outreach and collaboration opportunity.
- Author's 80-year-old father made rare exception to travel and participate in podcast episode due to respect for Papola's work and desire to support film launch.
- Trip to Austin included memorable experiences at University of Texas campus and local BBQ restaurant alongside the podcast recording.
“When you’re at rock bottom, the only way to go is up”
The Substack Post
- Megan Nolan reflects on her cyclical experiences with financial instability, from being unable to afford subway fare to spending lavishly.
- Being broke in her 20s was more frightening because she lacked both money and a stable career path, leaving no hope for future improvement.
- The piece explores the psychological difference between temporary poverty and structural joblessness.
Why Hasn’t Anyone Bought Lady Annabel Goldsmith’s £25 Million House?
Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
- Ormeley Lodge, the £25 million London estate of the late Lady Annabel Goldsmith, has struggled to find a buyer despite its prestigious history.
- Lady Annabel was a society figure and namesake of Annabel's nightclub in Mayfair, and matriarch of a prominent British dynasty.
- The article explores why such a high-profile luxury property has remained on the market for an extended period.
Healthy Sticky Toffee Pudding
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Healthy sticky toffee pudding recipe uses sweet potato and monk fruit sweetener to reduce fat and sugar while maintaining rich restaurant-quality taste.
- Dessert can be prepared in under 45 minutes with accessible ingredients and straightforward preparation methods.
- Macro-friendly version maintains the indulgent toffee sauce and moist cake texture expected from traditional recipes.
I’m an apron convert thanks to this new collab
Amanda Hesser from Homeward
- Author explores design challenges for outdoor entertaining space between pizza oven and grill area, seeking functional solution.
- Original plan for wheeled island serving table delayed; cost of holding stone slab creates financial pressure to finalize design.
- Focus on creating sheltered gathering spaces outdoors to make guests feel comfortable and oriented rather than leaving area bare.
Healthy Apple Pie Cinnamon Roll Bites
Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
- Recipe for low-calorie, sugar-free and dairy-free apple pie cinnamon roll bites with detailed ingredient measurements.
- Uses alternative sweeteners like monk fruit and cottage cheese base for a healthier dessert option.
- Includes step-by-step directions for making soft rolls with cinnamon sugar topping and glaze.
White Guilt Soars to Top Ten on Amazon
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Documentary 'White Guilt' reached top 10 on Amazon in new release documentaries and 34th place in best-selling documentaries.
- Film is self-distributed without major studio backing, relying on word-of-mouth and subscriber support for promotion.
- Success validates the film's content quality against prior skeptics who attributed previous documentary success to platform bans rather than merit.
Tattoos Won’t Win the Culture, But Neither Will a Conservative Uniform
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Tattoos are no longer countercultural; they are mainstream, making them an ineffective aesthetic tool for conservative political messaging.
- Conservatives should engage popular culture rather than retreat, but adopting counter-culture aesthetics won't reclaim cultural influence.
- Traditional ideas spread more effectively when carried by people who defy stereotypes, not by copying the Left's aesthetic strategies.
Macro · 8
Macro Report: Duration, Duration, Duration!
Global Macro Method
- Author building selective long duration exposure, with strongest conviction in US 3-to-7-year Treasury sector rather than indiscriminate curve extension.
- Different maturity durations represent distinct macro bets: 2-year reflects Fed policy remaining work, 5-year reflects policy duration, 30-year adds fiscal credibility and inflation risk.
- European duration trades complicated by sovereign credit concerns, particularly around French exposure; thesis does not require complete recession call to work.
Jump Ball
PAIDDoomberg
- Indonesia's January 2025 BRICS accession followed within months by student-led protests exhibiting hallmarks of previous Western-backed color revolutions in former Soviet republics.
- US Treasury sanctions regime under Scott Bessent weaponized against Iran arguably more effective than military action; dollar hegemony battles via BRICS represent pivotal World War III confrontations.
- Author argues seemingly coincidental timing of Indonesia protests post-BRICS membership warrants scrutiny of Western think tank narratives and geopolitical destabilization patterns.
Diesel Diplomacy
The Brawl Street Journal
- Trump negotiated diesel supply deal with Putin: 300,000 tons immediate delivery, 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons thereafter, with 3 million more to follow pending refinery conditions.
- Deal accompanied by temporary sanctions easing via US Treasury authorization; Zelensky publicly opposed agreement while Trump suggested Ukraine needs new leadership.
- Geopolitical tensions between Trump-Putin energy cooperation and Ukraine support indicate shifting US foreign policy priorities during active conflict.
Japan Inc. Now Sells No Yen to Invest Abroad
Takuji Okubo
- Japanese corporate foreign investments now generate returns equal to new outward FDI, with reinvested earnings and dividends reaching 103% of new investment in 2022-25.
- Foreign affiliate earnings have grown to represent 13.4% of Japan Inc.'s total earnings in FY2025, up dramatically from 1.7% in FY1996.
- Net yen outflows from FDI have collapsed to nearly zero since 2022, down from ~¥5 trillion annually in the 2010s, as overseas earnings are recycled rather than requiring new capital exports.
Weekly KAOS - The Vanishing Bond Floor, the Jobs Miss, and the Hormuz Spigot
UrbanKaoboy from Kaoboy Musings
- Long-end bond yields have reached levels unseen since before the 2008 Financial Crisis, with the 30-year approaching 2002 lows and the 10-year pushing past 5.2%.
- The traditional 'bond floor' supporting equity valuations has vanished, leaving duration-heavy stocks like Mag-7 suspended only by growth narratives.
- Despite soft jobs data keeping the 'Goldilocks' scenario alive, oil volatility and Chinese geopolitical pressure remain two-sided drivers.
When Fed Members Ask For Rescue Tools...
Garrett Baldwin
- A BIS speech in Vienna by Fed members advocated for emergency rescue tools, receiving minimal media coverage despite significant policy implications.
- Fed's September FOMC minutes show members voted to raise rates while citing equity prices and credit spreads as evidence of 'supportive' financial conditions, creating potential circular logic.
- The Fed's focus on Nvidia, leverage, and risk assessment in rate decisions raises questions about whether they adequately account for systemic vulnerabilities.
HOW HIGH?
The Oracle by Polymarket
- FOMC members' September projections indicate year-end Fed funds rate should reach 4.1%, implying two 25 basis point hikes by end of 2026.
- Market consensus and Polymarket traders largely agree on another 25 bps hike by year-end, though Fed maintains 'data-dependent' guidance.
- Analysis examines the limits of rate hikes across developed economies and the constraints on monetary policy going forward.
Macro Trades: Rates, Energy, and AI Capex Rotations
Capital Flows
- Growth is running significantly above trend while facing an energy shock, driven by AI capex and new model disruption.
- Short-end interest rates are mispriced relative to current growth and inflation levels; terminal rates too low.
- Trading interest rates successfully requires both short-end and long-end drivers to be significantly mispriced simultaneously.
AI · 6
Adding It Up: The Other Side of the Headline
Cape Fear Advisors
- OpenAI's reported $50 billion annualized revenue (down from earlier $70 billion estimate) reflects differing accounting methods for cloud partner sales between OpenAI and competitors like Anthropic.
- Major AI infrastructure stocks (CoreWeave, Oracle, Intel, Super Micro, AMD, Broadcom, NVIDIA) fell sharply on October 8 despite none disclosing OpenAI details in their filings that day.
- The disconnect reveals how companies holding large AI lab commitments disclose information under different rules and thresholds, obscuring the true scope of their exposure.
Independent, Paid by the Examinee (125)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Four critical questions determine what 'independent evaluation' actually means: whether evaluator works for seller, who pays and fee structure, other business relationships, and whether bad results can block the sale.
- Anthropic's announcement of Accenture evaluation labeled 'independent' but funded directly by Anthropic, exemplifying how independent stamps lack substantive meaning.
- Report accuracy on every line does not ensure independence; evaluation framework must be examined to assess whether conflicts of interest compromise validity.
Red Flagette – How AI Beat Me at My Own ‘Gotcha’ Game
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Author failed to research a tankless water heater purchase and turned to ChatGPT for help identifying the model and its specifications.
- ChatGPT demonstrated superior knowledge by identifying that Takagi is owned by A.O. Smith and operates as a second-tier manufacturer in Japan.
- The incident illustrates how AI can outperform human due diligence, even catching oversights in personal consumer decisions.
We must recall open-ended AI agents with internet access from the market, now
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Open-ended AI agents with internet access are causing repeated serious incidents at major AI labs including Anthropic and OpenAI, warranting immediate market withdrawal.
- Current generation of synthetic agents cannot be trusted and should be recalled like defective vehicles until safety issues are resolved.
- Industry operating with start-up mentality and inadequate safety protocols while developing increasingly capable systems with greater risks than six months prior.
Friday Five (October 9, 2026)
Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
- AI safety advocates conceptualize artificial intelligence risks as existentially comparable to accidentally building a power equivalent to God.
- Real AI risks span internet integrity threats, implications for modern infrastructure, and potential future warfare scenarios beyond hypothetical superintelligence concerns.
- The publication curates five notable pieces weekly to surface quality journalism across analysis, interviews, and editorials in an oversaturated media environment.
The Actual Reason Why Meta Got Back in the AI Race Changes Everything
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Meta and Anthropic formed an unexpected partnership in early 2026 as Meta rebounds from a decade of AI missteps and strategic errors.
- Zuckerberg's past failures (losing DeepMind in 2014, missing the LLM wave by 2015) contrast with his willingness to pursue unconventional paths to win in AI.
- The partnership represents Meta's side-door strategy to regain competitive positioning in the AI race against OpenAI and Google.
Trading · 5
2026 September Performance Report
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Pinebrook Capital achieved +18.60% YTD return (through September 2026) versus S&P 500's +11.77%, outperforming by 6.82 percentage points.
- September saw a -2.45% decline versus S&P's -0.45%, driven by Japan pair positions, rates exposure, and gold-miner positions as headwinds.
- TSM, IGV, and industrial short basket provided significant offsets; fund NAV stands at $1.982 million with +98.21% return since inception.
Market Analysis and Trades for 10/12
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- Bulls maintain control as long as they avoid early-week fumbles; sellers failed to capitalize on recent sluggish breakout despite Friday resistance closes.
- Author emphasizes need for sellers to step in early with follow-through or risk being run over again by bullish momentum.
- Analysis based on SPY, QQQ, and GLD weekly positioning; full context requires review of prior week's market analysis.
🐍 Use Python to analyze options straddles
Jason from PyQuant News
- Beginners can learn to price real options strategies like straddles using just twenty lines of Python code rather than mastering complex formulas first.
- Most novice traders buy options expecting movement but fail to calculate breakeven points, leading to losses even when directional bets prove correct.
- The tutorial teaches readers to chart profit/loss profiles at every possible stock price before placing trades, a professional trader practice.
Market Analysis for the Week of 10/11
PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
- ES pivot at 7780-7784 level triggered move to new highs with buyers defending the breakout from seller attempts.
- Nominal new highs remain sluggish but sellers have failed to capitalize on opportunities to reverse the trend.
- Upcoming week's opening action will be critical; bulls currently have momentum but sellers have brief window to negate breakout attempt.
Something Different - Our Next “Miracle” Stock (Recording Live at 12 pm)
Postcards From the Edge of the World
- Author presents a stock opportunity beaten down 33% from its 52-week high that operates in an underappreciated region of the world.
- Educational focus on valuation metrics that readers can apply to any company beyond this specific pick.
- Live recording format with transcript option allows audience to hear inflection and reasoning while learning finance principles about owning companies that remove suffering.