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Updated Thursday, September 17 2026 · 06:23 AM CDT · 87 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 18

The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • An unusual political coalition—including Archbishop of San Francisco, Steve Bannon, and Bernie Sanders—gathered to discuss AI extinction risks.
  • Jacob Coxon's resignation from Anthropic over AI extinction concerns reflects growing industry openness about existential dangers.
  • Recent AI incidents like Hugging Face intensify debate around whether powerful AI poses genuine human extinction threat.
Sep 17, 05:03 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Macro Charts

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • SPY held support yesterday; QQQ filled gap at $700 and recovered overnight with Tech/MAGS maintaining resilience.
  • Shallow dips continue getting bought while cyclical/rate-sensitive stocks are oversold; sentiment plunged with AAII survey showing 53% bears vs 29% bulls.
  • Market defying odds by remaining sideways despite challenging technicals, suggesting strong underlying demand.
Sep 17, 04:38 AMRead on Substack →

You Have A Voice. You Lost A Venue

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • Macklemore hijacked Ed Sheeran's tour platform to make political statements about Palestine, treating a pop concert as activism opportunity.
  • Sheeran made business decision to remove Macklemore to protect his commercial success despite awkward messaging around the removal.
  • Tension between free speech and artist control over curated concert experiences reflects broader cultural conflict over activism in entertainment venues.
Sep 16, 06:49 PMRead on Substack →

Hold Your Applause for the New Gaza Documentary

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Documentary 'NAZA' premiered at Venice Film Festival and won Special Jury Prize with reported 25-minute standing ovation.
  • Film alleges Israel's targeting systems enabled immoral and unlawfully high civilian casualty rates in Gaza, going beyond excess tolerance claims.
  • Author has not viewed film but examines publicly available arguments and claims that the allegations fall short across editing, corroboration, and testimony dimensions.
Sep 16, 03:50 PMRead on Substack →

A REVERSE GFC?

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • 20 years after the GFC, markets show a potential reverse pattern where prime credit may be the problem rather than subprime, opposite of 2008 dynamics.
  • In 2006-2008, markets dismissed subprime concerns as 'contained' while ignoring prime mortgage and bank risks until late 2008.
  • Current market conditions suggest a symmetrical but inverted GFC scenario emerging as the original crisis recedes into history.
Sep 16, 02:46 PMRead on Substack →

Bari Weiss and Simon Sebag Montefiore LIVE on October 1

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore argues America's Middle East quagmires stem from deep misunderstanding of the region on both left and right.
  • U.S. involvement in Middle East spans 20+ years including wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Arab Spring, and ongoing tensions with Iran.
  • Free Press event on October 1 will feature Bari Weiss interviewing Montefiore on his new book 'The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East.'
Sep 16, 01:10 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • Retail sales for August exceeded expectations, though nominal gains are not keeping pace with inflation.
  • Fed faces decision on whether to hold, raise 25 bps, or pursue alternative action amid committee splits and political considerations.
  • Consumer sticker shock on electronics and real purchasing power erosion suggest underlying weakness despite nominal sales strength.
Sep 16, 09:03 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • FOMC rate decision framed as a geopolitical tool; multiple rate hikes proposed as escalating responses to regional conflict scenarios.
  • Fed policy debate conflates inflation control with military strategy, drawing parallels to ineffective historical approaches.
  • OpenAI fundraising and AI regulation mentioned amid broader commentary on policy absurdity and technological development pressures.
Sep 16, 07:38 AMRead on Substack →

trade prospecting ahead of the Fed meeting

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Gold and 10-year yield have experienced 1.5–2 standard deviation moves ahead of Fed meeting, signaling significant repricing expectations.
  • Post uses trader/gambler framework rather than fundamental analysis, focusing on point spreads and pricing anomalies.
  • Market currently pricing two distinct scenarios for Fed outcome; technical and positioning context crucial for trade setup identification.
Sep 16, 06:56 AMRead on Substack →

Rates, Hikes, and What Comes After:

PRIORITY
Macro Charts
  • Volatility metrics show 33 days since the last 1% S&P decline heading into a major FOMC announcement, suggesting a potential break in the low-volatility streak.
  • Historical contrarian lessons and market positioning suggest consensus views often age poorly around highly-anticipated Fed decisions, with tactical support/resistance levels at $747 and $765.
  • Prior Fed Chair Warsh's first two FOMC days saw weakness initially but recovered within 1-2 days, offering perspective on potential market reactions today.
Sep 16, 05:43 AMRead on Substack →

Caitlin Flanagan on Sydney Sweeney Derangement Syndrome. Among the 9/11 Truthers. Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Caitlin Flanagan critiques the backlash against Sydney Sweeney's nude sports betting advertisement as misguided criticism of "sexualizing women in sport."
  • The Free Press covers diverse topics including a first-person account of a near-miss Russian drone strike, reporting from a 9/11 truther conference, and AI accountability questions.
  • The piece challenges social media outrage culture by noting the disconnect between actual harm (the near-accident) and the abstract criticism being leveled.
Sep 16, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

What’s On My Mind - Higher Oil Prices And The Case For Caution

PRIORITY
Ideas from HFI Research
  • Energy supply disruptions create systemic risk that stock market valuations leave little room to absorb.
  • Oil market has reduced capacity to handle additional shocks; prolonged shortages threaten broader economic damage beyond energy.
  • Author remains constructive on selective energy plays and cash, prioritizing research into quality businesses at better prices.
Sep 15, 09:40 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from HFI Research

PRIORITY
HFI Research
  • Author refuses FOMO on higher oil prices; survived brutal April-June drawdown and prioritizes long-term strategy over short-term gains.
  • Risk management critical: acknowledges pain of missing rallies but maintains discipline in volatile energy markets.
  • Current position emphasizes patience and understanding market mechanics over stubborn adherence to single directional thesis.
Sep 15, 05:52 PMRead on Substack →

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: The Lie About Islam, Europe, and the Dangers We Face

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Ayaan Hirsi Ali charts a courageous intellectual journey from Somalia through the Netherlands to the US, witnessing and then critiquing Islamist ideology firsthand.
  • She survived terrorist threats after collaborating on critical media and maintains her voice despite Western reluctance to acknowledge threats to liberal culture.
  • The article examines Europe's security challenges and questions why some Western leaders refuse to acknowledge the nature of ideological threats they face.
Sep 15, 04:36 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Le Shrub

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Le Shrub published a parody piece examining recent AI developments and hype.
  • Discussion of robotics advances, comparing Chinese backflipping robots with practical warehouse automation solutions.
  • Updates on CCXI/Agility robot developments in commercial applications.
Sep 15, 08:11 AMRead on Substack →

WHY LONG/SHORT HEDGE FUNDS ARE NO GOOD ANYMORE

PRIORITY
Russell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
  • Long/short hedge funds underperformed because they became fee-driven strategies rather than true alpha generators.
  • Value vs. growth hedge funds thrived during dot-com bubble collapse and GFC when large-cap U.S. stocks underperformed.
  • 2008 revealed structural problems: momentum strategies collapsed when all funds crowded same trades (short banks, long commodities).
Sep 15, 07:22 AMRead on Substack →

why i'm not more bearish equities compared to 6 months ago

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Updates March analysis comparing equity risk premiums to bond yields amid massive fiscal deficits; equity valuations still unflattering.
  • Fed 25bp hike now 90% priced in after Jackson Hole; 10-year yield rallied from 4.67% to 4.96% while SPX down only 50bps.
  • Option surfaces suggest limited additional equity downside despite rising rates, questioning earlier March bearishness.
Sep 15, 07:13 AMRead on Substack →

Claudification Overdrive™️ - Part II

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • AI frontier companies mirror shale oil dynamics: high upfront training costs followed by inference revenue, but aggressive competition prevents adequate profit extraction.
  • Shale drillers collapsed in 2014-16 by over-leveraging without capital discipline while chasing growth; frontier AI firms risk similar fate through relentless model releases.
  • The comparison highlights unsustainable economics: shale wells deplete in 18-24 months while AI models face constant obsolescence from newer competitors.
Sep 15, 06:38 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 12

MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research - Strategy Note for 9/16

MacroEdge from MacroEdge Oil and Gas Research
  • Oil markets remain in line with expectations; pullback to low-to-mid $90s WTI remains possible and would be positive technically and fundamentally.
  • SPR release unlikely at $102/bbl spot; diesel export ban threat poses bigger risk to refined product markets and consumer inflation.
  • Diesel and gasoline re-rating higher at pump signals worsening inflation situation without expected near-term relief.
Sep 17, 02:29 AMRead on Substack →

SPR Trickle, Product Builds: EIA’s Modest Crude Draw Knocks Oil Lower

Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
  • EIA data shows modest crude oil draw of 0.6 MMB with smallest weekly SPR release of current cycle at 0.4 MMB.
  • Product builds (gasoline +0.8 MMB, distillate +1.6 MMB) and declining SPR pressured oil prices toward $102 WTI.
  • U.S. crude inventories remain approximately 1% above seasonal average with increased imports and record production levels reported.
Sep 16, 08:47 PMRead on Substack →

EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 9-11-16

Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
  • Weekly EIA data showed crude draw of 0.6 MMB, smallest SPR release of cycle at 0.4 MMB, with overall +2.6 MMB total inventory build.
  • U.S. crude inventories at 1% above seasonal average; crude imports rebounded to high levels primarily from Canadian sources.
  • WTI spot at $102 appears fairly valued relative to EIA inventory-based price model with U.S. production at record levels.
Sep 16, 06:13 PMRead on Substack →

Three Stocks with Big Upside Potential from Higher Oil Prices

Bison Insights
  • Oil prices surged to $105.4/barrel in September 2026, returning to levels last seen during Iran conflict tensions.
  • Three specific oil companies with substantial upside potential are highlighted as beneficiaries of higher crude prices through increased cash flow.
  • Author references prior bullish oil signal from July 6 that has since been validated by current price movements above $100/barrel.
Sep 16, 09:38 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Australian premium low-vol coal prices declined $1.20/t to $280.30/t fob with thin liquidity and compressed survey ranges.
  • PCI fell sharply by $3.20/t to $223.15/t, signaling weak seller demand in physical markets.
  • SGX futures showed constructive curve strength from October onward, with October up $2.00 and December up $8.00.
Sep 16, 09:03 AMRead on Substack →

Value Trap

PAID
Doomberg
  • Angola's government held firm on diesel price increases in July 2025 despite violent unrest killing 30 people and injuring 277, demonstrating political resolve on subsidy reform.
  • Balancing resource wealth distribution to local consumers with capital returns for extractive industries presents a recurring political and economic challenge across energy-exporting regions.
  • Government regulation levels are the determinative variable in whether resource wealth generates optimal returns, with countless fortunes tied to political risk management.
Sep 16, 04:00 AMRead on Substack →

War Note: Diesel and Refined Products Tighten Further, Overhyped FOMC Preview

MacroEdge Research
  • Diesel and refined product markets are tightening further amid broader macro shifts, with the author conducting on-the-ground research in the Permian Basin.
  • The current FOMC meeting is being overhyped to levels not seen since 2022, with market consensus potentially mispricing outcomes and policy expectations.
  • The author is shifting content strategy away from social media algorithms toward Substack as a primary distribution channel while undergoing organizational restructuring.
Sep 16, 02:23 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Matt Warder

The Coal Trader
  • Coal Trade Flows tool expanded with Pakistan, Malaysia, Mozambique, Morocco, and Russia data back to 2010.
  • Vietnam's seaborne coal split recalculated from live Australian export data, shifting 2025 met imports estimate to 13.60 Mt.
  • Coverage now tracks approximately 95% of world seaborne coal exports and imports for 2019 onward.
Sep 15, 06:43 PMRead on Substack →

YWR: Shipping Conference Notes

PAID
Erik@YWR
  • Geopolitical tensions and energy rerouting due to Russia-Ukraine war increased ton-miles by 7%, creating major arbitrage opportunities and locking ships on long-term routes.
  • 70% of global trade flows through maritime chokepoints, making shipping security critical as 96% of the world population relies on imported energy.
  • Governments are increasingly entering shipping markets directly, similar to their interventions in critical metals and supply chains, as energy realignment continues.
Sep 15, 04:30 PMRead on Substack →

Taking Profits on Two Big Winners

Bison Insights
  • Taking profits on refining exposure due to geopolitical improvement: Trump reports Ukraine-Russia agreement to stop energy infrastructure attacks.
  • Rising risk of U.S. fuel export ban would suppress currently elevated refining margins.
  • WSJ headlines on fuel shortage suggest bullish refining setup may already be priced in, warranting profit-taking.
Sep 15, 07:38 AMRead on Substack →

Diesel shock threatens a new era of global stagflation

Matein Khalid from Matein’s Substack
  • Analyzes diesel supply shock and its potential to trigger global stagflation.
  • Examines energy market dynamics and inflationary pressures from fuel constraints.
  • Explores macroeconomic implications of energy supply disruptions.
Sep 15, 07:27 AMRead on Substack →

SPR: Trade It to Save It ft. Arnab Datta (Employ America)

Emmet Penney from Nuclear Barbarians
  • Podcast episode discussing Strategic Petroleum Reserve policy with Employ America's Arnab Datta.
  • Explores SPR fundamentals and reforms to strengthen American energy resilience.
  • Focuses on 'Trade the SPR, Save the SPR' framework for sustainable reserve management.
Sep 15, 07:04 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 10

Private Equity’s Higher Bar

Andrew Sarna
  • Median private equity entry multiples nearly doubled from 6.6x to 11.5x EV/EBITDA over 25 years, closing the historical discount to public markets.
  • Higher entry multiples, rising interest rates, and reduced leverage require EBITDA growth to nearly double (from 5% to 12%) to achieve same 20% IRR returns.
  • U.S. buyout exits collapsed from $825B (2021) to $375B (2025), while aged fund assets ballooned to $350B, forcing PE firms to hold longer.
Sep 17, 05:52 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets higher as yields reward credible Fed messaging and oil prices fade amid international market moderation.
  • Fed credibility lifts equity sentiment while CEO confidence reaches 4-year highs despite broader economic uncertainties.
  • Asian markets mixed (Japan +89bp, China -42bp) reflect divergent regional monetary policy expectations.
Sep 17, 05:05 AMRead on Substack →

CoreWeave's Call Option on Used GPUs

Cape Fear Advisors
  • CoreWeave's financing model depends on equipment offtake agreements, with the company holding a $100 billion offtake that enables capital raises for data centers.
  • Deployed GPU racks must generate $3.57/hour rental revenue to justify financing costs, but spot prices were only $2.35/hour in March.
  • The valuation hinges on unpublished future pricing of used GPUs six years out, where no active market exists to establish objective value.
Sep 16, 11:56 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • CME shows 93% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike; analyst suggests political/financial engineering could prevent hike to squeeze bond shorts.
  • AI doomerism critiqued as apocalyptic hysteria lacking accountability or realistic solutions, analogous to prior pandemic narratives.
  • US markets slightly higher pre-Fed decision with author cautioning against rate predictions despite apparent likely outcomes.
Sep 16, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

Sports Teams Are Beating the S&P 500

Prof G Research Team
  • Sports franchises have outperformed the S&P 500 since 2019, with recent record valuations (Lakers at $12.5B, Angels at $4B) signaling a major market shift.
  • Wealthy investors and billionaire family offices now view sports teams as serious alternative investments rather than vanity purchases, surpassing art as the preferred trophy asset.
  • The shift reflects broader portfolio diversification strategies in an AI-saturated market environment where traditional equity alternatives are scarce.
Sep 16, 06:03 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - First Look

Derek Wallis
  • U.S. markets are slightly higher ahead of the Fed decision, with the 10-year yield at 4.99% and S&P midway through its trading range.
  • Asian markets posted strong gains (Japan +50bp, China +70bp) while European markets rallied on tech leadership ahead of potential policy news.
  • Key events today include retail sales, housing data, the Fed decision, and Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, with AI coordination efforts and China tensions shaping market themes.
Sep 16, 05:00 AMRead on Substack →

Gravity Co (NASDAQ: GRVY): A Value Trap No More? Our New Gaming Adventure

CanadianValueInvestors Substack
  • Gravity Co (GRVY) trades at anomalously low valuations (1x cash-adjusted PE) due to poor governance, Korean listing, and Japanese parent ownership masking value.
  • A newly announced inaugural dividend and management changes signal potential shift from value trap status toward better capital allocation.
  • The Ragnarok gaming franchise has generated massive cash reserves relative to market cap, suggesting significant upside if corporate governance improves.
Sep 15, 11:15 AMRead on Substack →

The art of covering the stock market

Bob Pisani
  • Bob Pisani discussed his 35-year CNBC career spanning nearly 30 years covering the NYSE trading floor and navigating market information overload.
  • The interview explores lessons learned from decades of financial media work and the transition away from one of Wall Street's most recognizable correspondent roles.
  • Pisani shared insights on how to cover modern markets and adapt to post-CNBC life with veteran ETF industry figures.
Sep 15, 10:14 AMRead on Substack →

Quant Corner

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Technical analysis of dislocated assets using quantitative models ahead of FOMC meeting.
  • Identifies freight ETF (BWET) as showing extreme signals with timing indicators suggesting reversal.
  • Notes utilities and staples are cheap relative to models despite post-rate hike outperformance.
Sep 15, 07:42 AMRead on Substack →

US Markets - Five Points

Derek Wallis
  • US markets slightly lower despite macro turbulence, with no clear directional reasoning apparent.
  • Author secured three interview subjects including an MMA fighter, Ukrainian drone operator, and NYC gym owner for an upcoming project.
  • Contains cultural commentary from The Honesty Project showing 62% of self-identified liberals privately believe Western civilization has done more harm than good.
Sep 15, 06:20 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 10

When I Fail, It Usually Comes Down to This

Jason Jonker from The Chaplain Chronicles
  • Playing to your unique strengths—rather than forcing fit into all roles—yields better outcomes in ministry and organizational work.
  • Author's creative temperament and 1,000+ Resilient Bible studies conducted demonstrate power of leveraging comparative advantage.
  • Delegating tasks outside your core competency while owning what only you can do improves overall effectiveness.
Sep 17, 05:32 AMRead on Substack →

Healthy Cinnamon Pumpkin Bread

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • Recipe for healthy cinnamon pumpkin bread using pumpkin puree, protein powder, and natural sweeteners.
  • Combines nutritious ingredients like applesauce and monkfruit sweetener for reduced-calorie baking.
  • Final product yields 8 slices at 97 calories each with 4g protein and 30g carbs per slice.
Sep 16, 04:28 PMRead on Substack →

Smashed Beef Tacos (part 2): a recipe

Notorious Foodie
  • Smashed beef tacos use ground beef seared thin on a pan for a dark crust, paired with leftover salsas from a previous recipe.
  • Corn tortillas are preferred over flour for better flavor and texture integration with the beef and salsas.
  • Recipe offers flexibility with beef fat content (80:20 for flavor or 5% for lighter version) while keeping preparation quick and simple.
Sep 16, 12:02 PMRead on Substack →

BRAISED SHORT RIBS

Ana Sofia Fehn
  • Braised short ribs recipe combines seared beef with a red wine and beef stock braise, finished with herb-infused butter and mashed potatoes.
  • Includes optional pressure cooker method for time-constrained cooks while maintaining traditional braising flavor development.
  • Detailed mise en place preparation with specific ingredients for aromatics, confit garlic butter, and creamy mashed potato side.
Sep 16, 09:02 AMRead on Substack →

Shifting Baseline Syndrome is Making WALL-E a Reality

Chaotic Neutral
  • Average American BMI has reached clinical obesity thresholds: women at 30.0, men at 29.5, a shift from decades past.
  • Self-reported ideal weight has drifted upward in lockstep with actual weight gains, normalizing obesity rather than correcting it.
  • Over 60 years (1960-2020), average American women gained roughly 30 pounds while their ideal weight reference also climbed without medical justification.
Sep 16, 07:41 AMRead on Substack →

The Hottest Amenity at Luxury Gyms? Phone Bans

Rich People Shit from Carson Griffith
  • Luxury gyms adding phone bans as premium amenity, reflecting shift toward wellness and digital detox.
  • Author attended launch event for Café Commerce breakfast service with psychological thriller book discussion.
  • Column promises return to regular Monday-Wednesday-Friday publishing schedule beginning next week.
Sep 15, 06:49 PMRead on Substack →

Viral Kylie Jenner Protein Chocolate Chip Cookies

Alisa | That Tastes Delish from That Tastes Delish
  • High-protein recreation of viral Kylie Jenner chocolate chip cookies using collagen powder and protein flour.
  • Recipe achieves crispy edges and molten center while reducing sugar and improving macronutrient profile.
  • Dough requires one-hour refrigeration; uses combination of milk and semi-sweet chocolate with sea salt finishing.
Sep 15, 05:03 PMRead on Substack →

None of Us End Up Where We Started

Shari A Smith from Running On Faith And Coffee
  • The author took a hiatus from writing due to mental and physical health struggles, burnout, and grief over losing her dog Meadow.
  • She experienced disorientation after witnessing unchecked antisemitism in progressive circles and feeling abandoned by expected allies.
  • She is returning to writing from a reformed foundation less focused on belonging to ideological camps and more grounded in personal values.
Sep 15, 01:08 PMRead on Substack →

Five American Narrative Poems Every Parent Should Read to Their Children

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Narrative poetry memorization was standard education until WWII but declined as modern poets abandoned rhyme and story for abstraction.
  • Poetry improves public speaking, writing, moral instruction, and cultural transmission—benefits lost when children stop reading after Mother Goose.
  • Five classic American narrative poems are recommended for children to bridge nursery rhymes toward lifelong poetry appreciation.
Sep 15, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Macklemore, Being Antisemitic Won’t Keep You on Stage

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • Macklemore's removal from performing venues by Robert Kraft represents accountability for a documented 12-year record of antisemitic behavior.
  • The artist's post-removal victim narrative mirrors his standard playbook and reflects an industry-wide failure to enforce consequences for hate speech.
  • One individual's moral clarity and willingness to sign his name to principle proved more effective than years of silence from culturally dominant figures.
Sep 15, 11:55 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 10

Do What You Want

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • Fed Chair Warsh delivered unanimous 25bp rate hike against Trump's explicit preference, asserting Fed independence despite presidential pressure.
  • Trump publicly criticized rate hike and called board 'very hostile, very political' while Warsh responded by defending institutional separation of powers.
  • Both officials engaged in lane-defense rhetoric, with Trump finding it increasingly difficult to influence monetary policy from White House.
Sep 17, 01:51 AMRead on Substack →

9/11 Did Not Doom the American Empire

Time Machine from Niall Ferguson
  • Historical debate over whether America is an empire resurfaces 25 years after 9/11, especially amid Trump's territorial ambitions.
  • Neoconservatives and left-wing critics both interpreted 9/11 as a strike against American imperialism, though Bush administration officially denied imperial status.
  • Contemporary geopolitical actions suggest continued imperial-like behavior despite rhetorical denial of empire status.
Sep 17, 01:02 AMRead on Substack →

A History Of The Slogan “Free Palestine”

John Aziz
  • Term 'Free Palestine' originated with Jewish socialist Poale Zion group in 1917, predating modern Palestinian nationalist usage.
  • Historical analysis contextualizes Macklemore's recent usage at Ed Sheeran concert within longer trajectory of phrase's political meaning.
  • Slogan's meaning has fundamentally shifted from early 20th-century Jewish socialist aspirations to contemporary Palestinian liberation movement.
Sep 16, 05:06 PMRead on Substack →

Britain’s Child-Bride Scandal

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Britain's forced marriage unit received at least 100 referrals involving children 12 and under over five years, including 27 children age five or younger.
  • Media outlets including GB News report on the scandal but avoid naming Islam or Muslim traditions as the root cause, exemplifying self-censorship.
  • Child marriage practice rooted in non-Western traditions has emerged as a disturbing reality in modern multicultural Britain.
Sep 16, 03:59 PMRead on Substack →

Bo French Ain’t No Shelby Steele

Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
  • Bo French, Texas Railroad Commission Republican nominee, posted a video screenshot from UT football game celebrating diversity as evidence of demographic problems.
  • The post selectively interpreted a celebratory crowd of South Asian descent students as proof of failed diversity policies rather than normal university life.
  • The article critiques French's misuse of imagery to push a political narrative about university demographics and American identity.
Sep 16, 12:00 PMRead on Substack →

Legalizing Marijuana Was a Mistake

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Marijuana legalization was based on flawed logic that removing legal restraints automatically expands liberty without considering law's role in public order.
  • Legalization converted marijuana into a commercialized consumer product rather than solving the underlying problems associated with drug use.
  • The author argues society presented a false choice between mass incarceration and broad legalization when better alternatives existed.
Sep 16, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Deportation Damage: Job Destruction

David R. Kotok from The Kotok Report
  • Current US deportation efforts targeting immigrants with legal work history, tax payments, and American citizen family members.
  • Florida and Washington DC experiencing direct economic damage through job losses in businesses and healthcare from immigration enforcement.
  • Negative employment multiplier effects documented from deportations, particularly impacting Haitian and Salvadoran immigrant communities.
Sep 16, 06:04 AMRead on Substack →

British MP Calls For A Military Attack On Israel

John Aziz
  • A British MP called for military intervention against Israel following October 7, an extreme position lacking reasonable questioning of both Israeli and Palestinian conduct.
  • The proposal ignores Egypt's role in refusing to open borders for Palestinian civilians and overlooks the geopolitical risks of war with a US-aligned nuclear power.
  • The author argues this represents absurd escalation disconnected from actually addressing the complex civilian welfare questions in the Gaza conflict.
Sep 15, 04:40 PMRead on Substack →

Never Forget What Mamdani Did at Ground Zero

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Over 110,000 New Yorkers petitioned to keep NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani from Ground Zero's 9/11 anniversary ceremony due to concerns about his political record.
  • Families of attack victims documented Mamdani's refusal to condemn 'globalize the intifada' rhetoric, praise for controversial imam Siraj Wahhaj, and association with antisemitic figures.
  • The petition highlights ongoing tensions between commemoration of terrorism victims and contemporary political figures' statements on related ideological conflicts.
Sep 15, 04:00 PMRead on Substack →

Barney Frank’s Warning for Democrats

Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen
  • Barney Frank was an influential Democratic figure from 1981-2013, known for legislative mastery and command of financial regulation.
  • Frank pioneered LGBTQ+ representation in Congress and was a vocal critic of the Iraq War.
  • The article examines Frank's warnings and lessons relevant to contemporary Democratic party strategy.
Sep 15, 09:00 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 9

Post FOMC - cautiously bullish

PAID
Geo Chen from Fidenza Macro
  • Fed delivered hawkish 25bp hike with median voter supporting another in 2026; SOFR market priced in 3.5 additional hikes over 12 months.
  • Markets initially sold equities on hawkish dots but reversed course over 12 hours, with author closing short ES, BTC, and Nasdaq put positions.
  • Nominal GDP running at 7% provides support despite negative catalysts (Iran conflict, AI slowdown declaration), with large Treasury short positioning potentially limiting further downside.
Sep 17, 03:30 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • FOMC hiked 25 basis points unanimously (12-0) with Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability focus in post-announcement remarks.
  • Hawkish dot plot showed broad consensus despite one outlier projecting four cuts in 2027, signaling reduced near-term rate cut expectations.
  • Shift in positioning noted as tactical opportunity for 2027 upside given elevated inflation concerns and rate stability emphasis.
Sep 16, 06:46 PMRead on Substack →

HIKE

Andrew Sarna
  • Canada announced a "Productivity Mega Deduction" making 66% of capital investments immediately deductible, dramatically lowering the marginal effective tax rate on investments relative to the U.S.
  • Market consensus expects a Fed rate hike tomorrow, with JPMorgan noting that no hike could be one of the worst outcomes for equity markets despite conventional wisdom.
  • 10-year Treasury yields historically rise early in hiking cycles and have climbed to 6% in the UK (highest since 1998), suggesting further upward pressure ahead.
Sep 16, 05:47 AMRead on Substack →

Is the US going bankrupt?

Seriously, Marvin?!
  • US debt concerns are overstated; bond yields reflect strong growth and global competition for savings, not panic.
  • Treasury is spending less than 1% of budget retiring discounted Treasuries to improve liquidity and reduce nominal debt.
  • Dollar remains near its decade average despite headlines; household budget analogies obscure key differences between national and personal finances.
Sep 16, 01:01 AMRead on Substack →

Argentina Macro Pulse No.7: September 2026

BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
  • August inflation hit 1.7% MoM, lowest of year, but suggests floor rather than room for further decline.
  • Real economy contracting sharply (industrial output -5% MoM) while reserves hit record highs and peso stable—two-speed economy.
  • Government pivoted focus to Malvinas; Vaca Muerta oil production combined with geopolitical posturing reshapes medium-term outlook.
Sep 15, 05:37 PMRead on Substack →

SLOP OF WAR

The Oracle by Polymarket
  • Geopolitical analyst Walter Russell Mead warns against making confident predictions in wartime, noting pundits are historically 'almost always overwhelmingly wrong.'
  • Uncertainty in conflict outcomes is the rule rather than exception, with momentum shifting repeatedly in Ukraine, Iran, and other conflicts despite expert forecasts.
  • Understanding war's unpredictability is critical for anyone attempting geopolitical forecasting, particularly regarding endgames, sanctions strategies, and international power dynamics.
Sep 15, 02:31 PMRead on Substack →

Market Commentary

David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
  • Historical rate-cycle comparisons are context, not forecasts; pattern-seeking minds often find false parallels that collapse when markets turn.
  • No two Fed committees operate under identical conditions, so past cycles cannot predict future FOMC decisions.
  • The framework uses historical data only to assess whether current metrics are stretched or ordinary relative to comparables, not to signal future outcomes.
Sep 15, 02:08 PMRead on Substack →

All Eyes Will Be On The Fed This Week, But Do They Need To Be?

Prometheus Research
  • Macro markets show stable inflationary regime with strong nominal growth and historic oil shock; trends point to consistent one-way traffic.
  • Federal Reserve discretion is largely bounded by underlying economic conditions—policymakers have limited room to drift from asset-price drivers.
  • Energy and energy beta remain optimal portfolio additions given macro dynamics; risk-managed exposure to these themes best navigates current conditions.
Sep 15, 10:52 AMRead on Substack →

Iran, FOMC, and AI

PAID
Geo Chen from Fidenza Macro
  • Iran conflict and Houthis controlling Bab el-Mandeb Strait push diesel to all-time highs and Brent crude near April peaks while threatening Red Sea shipping.
  • China's oil inventory rebuild after earlier drawdowns removes a key shock absorber for global oil demand; surging prices push yields higher across the curve.
  • SOFR pricing surged 50bp to reflect nearly 100bp of rate hike expectations 12 months forward; hot US data confirms inflation persists despite market resilience.
Sep 15, 09:47 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 8

The Prisoner’s Dilemm-AI

AP Research
  • AI industry leaders face a prisoner's dilemma where self-interest prevents coordinated slowdown in development despite safety concerns.
  • Anthropic and OpenAI support additional safeguards and slower development pace, but trust issues prevent binding industry commitments.
  • More powerful AI systems risk deception and monitoring challenges, yet avoiding advancement forgoes healthcare and other critical improvements.
Sep 17, 06:04 AMRead on Substack →

OpenAI overtakes Anthropic in developer AI spend for the first time since 2024 😳📈; UK banks plan Visa rival. The…

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • OpenAI overtakes Anthropic in developer AI spend for first time in 2.5+ years following new model releases (GPT-6 Astra, Qwen 3.8-27B).
  • UK financial institutions raise £50M to build domestic Visa/Mastercard rival, drawing lessons from Brazil's Pix and India's UPI success models.
  • Rapid shifts in AI developer preference highlight competitive intensity and importance of product innovation in AI market.
Sep 17, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

Sam Altman says trust me; Jensen Huang says everything is going to be fine; Bernie Sanders says AI is more dangero…

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Sam Altman's claim that OpenAI should be trusted lacks credibility, with Altman himself previously stating the public shouldn't trust him.
  • Jensen Huang's assertion that 'everything will be fine' misses core risks around corporate concentration of AI power and oversight gaps.
  • Gary Marcus critiques tech leaders' contradictory and unconvincing public statements on AI safety and trustworthiness despite their stated confidence.
Sep 16, 04:42 PMRead on Substack →

Claude for Financial Advisors is Anthropic’s first AI product built for an entire job 🤖📊; No one hacked Revolut.…

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Anthropic's Claude for Financial Advisors represents the company's first complete product built around a single job title, distributed through Schwab and BlackRock to 16,000+ independent RIAs.
  • The product architecture differs fundamentally from OpenAI's ChatGPT for Financial Services, indicating divergent platform strategies between the two AI leaders.
  • Anthropic's three vertical launches in one week signal an aggressive shift toward agentic OS capabilities and specialized professional tools beyond general-purpose chatbots.
Sep 16, 04:45 AMRead on Substack →

Hike By 50 And Get Ahead Of It

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times
  • Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei sought regulatory antitrust exemptions for AI companies to coordinate safety slowdowns, prompting FTC skepticism about industry collusion under the guise of regulation.
  • Meta and Nvidia leaders rejected coordination arguments, with Zuckerberg citing internal incentives and Huang framing AI caution as benefiting China, fracturing industry safety consensus.
  • Fed rate hikes, 10-year Treasury yields at 2007 highs, and Bitcoin weakness accompany broader debate over AI governance and competitive dynamics.
Sep 16, 01:09 AMRead on Substack →

The AI Capex Arms Race Has Officially Surpassed the Dot-Com Boom

Grizzle Research and Quant
  • AI capex spending has reached 4.96% of US GDP in 2Q26, surpassing the dot-com boom peak of 4.46%, with no signs of slowdown in hyperscaler guidance.
  • The four major hyperscalers forecast capex to rise 92% year-over-year to $723bn in 2026 and reach $987bn in 2027, significantly outpacing historical IT investment cycles.
  • AI investments contributed 0.46-1.30 percentage points to US GDP growth across recent quarters, raising questions about sustainability and comparisons to the late-1990s tech bubble.
Sep 15, 03:19 PMRead on Substack →

Translating Sam

Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
  • Sam Altman's public messaging about 'pacing' AI development translates as moving fast while avoiding legal/regulatory jeopardy and managing optics.
  • Reducing regulatory uncertainty appears motivated partly by OpenAI's IPO prospects rather than pure safety concerns.
  • Elon Musk's quip about 10% annihilation risk paired with IPO allocation requests illustrates tensions between existential risk rhetoric and business incentives.
Sep 15, 10:58 AMRead on Substack →

What I’m Watching So You Don’t Have To

The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
  • AI development compared to Genesis/Garden of Eden narrative, where artificial agents break programmed constraints.
  • Explores the paradox that AI creators warn of existential risk yet financial incentives prevent meaningful action.
  • Examines the tension between AI safety concerns and the massive economic stakes driving continued development.
Sep 15, 07:59 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 5

Post FOMC

Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
  • S&P 500 e-mini broke down to 7500-7514 neutral zone, testing major support levels from previous contract.
  • Market retraced overnight after reaching core support areas, positioning for potential stabilization heading into late week.
  • Key technical dates (15th, 21st) identified with 18th marked as critical timeframe for directional clarity.
Sep 17, 01:31 AMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/17

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • ES and NQ contract roll gaps filled on downside with ES now at significant risk of new lows despite 69-point roll benefit.
  • NQ remains more resilient with potential bullish sequence still in play despite broader market weakness on FOMC aftermath.
  • End of week and tomorrow identified as critical periods with elevated volatility expected for directional confirmation.
Sep 16, 05:12 PMRead on Substack →

Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator

Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator
  • Mid-cap semiconductor stock identified with improving technical outlook across both short- and long-term timeframes.
  • Opportunity thesis focuses on pockets of technology sector strength despite broader weak market breadth conditions.
  • Technical analysis suggests asymmetric risk/reward setup in select semiconductor names despite sector headwinds.
Sep 16, 05:00 PMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • NOPA crush data came in 6M bushels below expectations; soyoil stocks at 1.2B lbs reflect tight supply dynamics.
  • Feedstock armada arriving in USA; Valero Port Arthur downtime and tight cash soybean meal creating mixed market signals.
  • FOMC meeting is critical next focus with three possible paths; global vegetable oils showing technical tightness in meal complex.
Sep 15, 06:58 PMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis and Trades for 9/16

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • NQ trading in extremely tight range near year-to-date volume point of control, awaiting FOMC decision.
  • FOMC tomorrow presents three scenarios: start hiking, skip hiking, or hike with messaging nuance.
  • Market awaiting major information catalyst; technical setup suggests consolidation before directional breakout.
Sep 15, 04:49 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 2

The Sickle Cell Development Fund

Michael Burry
  • Sickle cell disease involves a single-letter mutation in the hemoglobin gene that causes red blood cells to form rigid crescent shapes when oxygen is released.
  • Rigid sickle-shaped cells jam small blood vessels, starving downstream tissue of oxygen and causing pain and tissue damage.
  • Author describes personal medical experience treating sickle cell patients relying on oxygen masks for relief in Memphis hospital trauma center.
Sep 16, 01:45 PMRead on Substack →

Tech · 2

The Israeli Machine That Helps Paralyzed People Walk

Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
  • ReWalk motorized braces developed by Israeli engineer enable paralyzed individuals to walk using motors at hips and knees powered by battery packs.
  • Former paratrooper Radi Kaiof, paralyzed since 1988, was able to walk again using the braces and became his young daughter's height reference.
  • Israeli innovation initially gained media attention including TV appearance on Glee but later dropped out of public spotlight despite continued advancement.
Sep 16, 12:21 PMRead on Substack →

Robotics Tipping Point: A Citrini Field Trip

Citrini
  • Citrini analyst conducted field research into the US robotics manufacturing renaissance to assess whether it represents genuine technological progress or nostalgia.
  • Young entrepreneurs are building domestically-manufactured physical AI hardware (motors, actuators, magnets) rather than software-only solutions.
  • The robotics sector is tracked as a thematic mega-trend at Citrini, with holdings maintained since prior humanoid robotics research in 2025.
Sep 16, 09:34 AMRead on Substack →

Crypto · 1

Crypto Update

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Systematic trading strategy for BTC and ETH delivers 68% and 83% hit rates respectively with 2:1 gain-to-loss ratio.
  • Author uses model signals supplemented by technical and positioning analysis rather than fundamental or speculative crypto narratives.
  • Crypto bulls initially bought ahead of Clarity Act passage but stopped out when legislation failed, highlighting sentiment-driven volatility.
Sep 16, 06:28 AMRead on Substack →