★ Priority · 19
Someone Forgot to Give Thanks...
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- High-profile AI trader Leopold Schnitzelburger's fund suffered heavy losses after using leverage during the AI trade crash, with South Korean margin calls intensifying market stress.
- Nasdaq declined 12% since the author's earlier 'Buffett Meme Top' call, suggesting the momentum trade unwind is accelerating.
- The author uses market turmoil as a humorous pitch for his Shrubstack subscription service as a cautionary lesson in risk management.
SHOULD YOU SHORT MEMORY STOCKS?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- The Goldman Sachs High Beta Momentum Index dropped 43% in just over a month, the largest drawdown since 2008, signaling a severe momentum unwind.
- Author shares decades of short-selling experience, noting ideal shorts are cyclical stocks where fundamentals break down after long rallies.
- Recent market conditions echo 2008 dynamics where Fed rate cuts weakened the dollar and benefited certain contrarian positions.
a talk I gave at a quant bootcamp
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- Moontower launched Workflows, a new feature targeting retail option users seeking directional expression or income strategies on individual stocks.
- Option traders split into two camps: directional investors using options to express stock opinions, and vol traders seeking relative value on the volatility surface.
- Income, Defensive, and Collar workflow suites organize screening around specific trading intents with built-in valuation frameworks.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Korea's KOSPI trading near 200-day average with RSI nearing oversold levels, setting up potential bottoming pattern.
- Semiconductor momentum (-23% below 200-day average) at extreme levels historically suggesting tactical bounce opportunity in August.
- Long/short momentum reversal signals potential inflection point for memory chip sector positioning.
The Limits of āAnti-Woke.ā Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Cornell student accused of antisemitic discrimination gained platform and funding ($25k+) through alternative crowdfunding site GiveSendGo instead of facing cancellation.
- Anti-woke movement inadvertently creating celebrity status and fundraising mechanisms for controversial figures previously marginalized.
- Shift in digital dynamics: platforms like GiveSendGo enabling alternative support structures for figures banned from mainstream sites.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Gold Miners showing bullish reversal patterns post-Fed with potential for multi-week rally if hammer formation holds through close.
- Semiconductor index (SMH) displaying bullish hammer structure; initiating 15% long position if pattern holds with stop at today's low.
- China markets showing textbook higher lows and rally continuation patterns, with TCEHY and BABA positioned for addition based on base formations.
Why Mamdani Is Asking My Mom to Pay His Pied-Ć -Terre Tax
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- NYC's new pied-Ć -terre tax (0.8-6.5% annually) targets high-end properties owned by non-residents, but implementation errors are catching primary residents.
- The author's 81-year-old mother received a $55,048 tax bill despite living in her Manhattan townhouse since 1996 due to the policy's flawed rollout.
- Mayor Mamdani's 'tax the rich' initiative shows how well-intentioned policies can create unintended consequences and administrative chaos.
HYPERSCALER COST OF CAPITAL IS RISING - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- CDS spreads on hyperscalers are rising as debt levels surge: Google up from $25B to $118B, Microsoft $100B to $125B, Meta $40B to $87B.
- Rising CDS doesn't necessarily signal distress if companies remain profitable; Tesla's high CDS in 2018-2022 preceded explosive gains, not collapse.
- HYG high-yield bond index weakness contradicts equal-weighted SPX at all-time highs, signaling potential divergence and market stress.
The Generosity of Love
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- Author reflects on the power of love and forgiveness rooted in Jewish identity and values that transcend betrayal.
- Personal narrative about compassion for both Jewish and non-Jewish communities, including witnessing October 7 massacre sites.
- Argues that a Jewish heart draws self-worth from something greater, refusing to walk away from loving people despite weakness or distance.
š¬ New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Extreme rotation within sectors and countries is occurring, with the Goldman High Beta Momentum Index down 40% while the S&P is barely down 3%.
- Many traders have blown up due to momentum strategies without proper stop losses, amplified by Korean retail selling creating conditions for Chinese tech bounces.
- Memory chip stocks like SK Hynix are declining while equities real estate plays like EQR are rising on U.S. listing pursuits.
- Market dynamics are shifting dramatically between countries and sectors creating significant dispersion in risk assets.
"best faculties of a mature human being exist in the child"
PRIORITYKris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
- The author's viral tweet about childhood neurochemistry sparked backlash but wasn't claiming being 13 is life's peak.
- Peak neurochemical moments of pure presence and aliveness in childhood are valuable regardless of frequency across a lifespan.
- The ability to achieve present-moment awareness exists at any age, though childhood's abundance of such moments is less replaceable.
- Greek and modern philosophical perspectives on childhood innocence, growth, and the value of extended windows of presence differ fundamentally.
WHAT DO AUTOCALLABLES SAY ABOUT THE KOSPI AND THE NIKKEI
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Korean autocallables (structured products) are a key indicator of market stress, with volatility surges signaling potential unhedging events similar to the 2015 HSCEI crisis.
- Korea's history of extreme market behavior, including the 74% Won devaluation in 2008-2009, suggests current autocallable trends warrant close monitoring for systemic risks.
- Volatility spikes in autocallable indices occur both when upper barriers are pierced (requiring restrike) and when low barriers breach, creating cascading unwinding pressures.
Trump, Bibi, Zelensky, and the Wars for the West. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Ukrainian President Zelensky and Israeli PM Netanyahu both met with President Trump in Washington to secure continued American backing for their respective conflicts.
- Ukraine's strike on an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea directly connected the Russia-Ukraine war with the Iran-Israel-US conflict, raising regional escalation risks.
- Both leaders face hot-and-cold relationships with Trump while seeking commitments crucial to their war efforts, representing a convergence of critical US geopolitical concerns.
š¬ New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- KOSPI crashed 13% with two-day intraday drop of 22%, erasing 4/5 of YTD returns and 44% from its peak in just one month.
- South Korea's market concentration in two chip stocks (SK Hynix and Samsung) leaves no diversification as SK Hynix profit surged 557% yet stock fell 13%, showing market runs on fantasy not fundamentals.
- AI infrastructure spending appears to be cooling as SK Hynix locks in five-year supply contracts with cash deposits and maintains large cash pile, signaling sector weakness despite strong earnings.
š¬ New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacroās Substack
- Iran fired missiles to Jordan on July 29th without tit-for-tat provocation, suggesting potential change in Iranian leadership or escalation strategy.
- Federal Reserve policy meeting signals potential for rate hikes in July and September given elevated embedded inflation and demographic headwinds.
- Middle East tensions remain elevated with Strait control disputes and Iranian signaling, creating geopolitical risk premium on oil markets.
(Idea) Calumet - It's Time To Trim
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Calumet (CLMT) stock has appreciated 144% over the past year and 32% since May, approaching the author's probability-weighted value of $50.
- RIN prices (key driver of Montana Renewables earnings) peaked in July and declined 11% over three weeks while CLMT gained 12%, suggesting market is pricing in continued renewable-fuel strength.
- Author recommends trimming position as shares offer limited upside in base scenario despite maintaining underlying thesis validity.
(Idea) Greenfire Resources - The Stock Is Undervalued
PRIORITYIdeas from HFI Research
- Greenfire Resources (GFR) is acquiring Connacher Oil and Gas for approximately C$1.28 billion, combining their oil sands assets.
- Connacher's Great Divide project is a logical strategic fit that creates a larger platform with meaningful operating and development synergies.
- Acquisition reinforces the author's thesis that GFR trades at a discount to long-lived oil sands reserves value, though execution risk increases.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN HEDGE FUND MANAGERS ARE WRONG?
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Goldman Sachs momentum pair trade has dropped 40% from June peak, returning to flat for the year as both long positions fall and short positions rally.
- Momentum investing pain points when shorts unexpectedly rally, a pattern seen in 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2021 with AI trades comprising roughly 50% of momentum positions.
- Sudden arrival of market risk triggers unusual behavior across equities and derivatives as momentum hedge funds simultaneously unwind long and short exposures.
Douglas Murray: Europe Spins Another Islamist Attack
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Media routinely obscures Islamist terrorism by presenting vehicles as autonomous actors rather than naming perpetrators, exemplified by Berlin Pride parade attack.
- Abdul Ballout, a 21-year-old German of Lebanese descent, attempted to join ISIS in Syria before executing the attack despite prior arrest.
- Pattern of media bias extends across multiple attacks from Stockholm to Nice, systematizing narrative distortion around Islamic extremism.
Macro · 15
July 2026 - A turning point in the AI supercycle
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Author believes July 2026 marks a major turning point comparable to March 2000, March 2008, and January 2020, with the bull market in equities topping.
- Convergence of weakening AI fundamentals, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and Fed policy shifts are creating stagflationary conditions ahead.
- AI-led bull market is losing steam as earnings growth from hyperscalers and semiconductors faces headwinds from slowing adoption and rising competition.
Japan & India: The China Variable
Jesper Koll @ Japan Optimist
- Japan-India partnership offers rare geopolitical alignment with no historical enmity or territorial disputes.
- China's regional influence shapes strategic calculus for both Japan and India's bilateral economic and security cooperation.
- Arbitrage opportunity combines abundant Japanese capital with Indian labor and software expertise in manufacturing and tech.
Real yields should be higher
Macro Is Dead
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirms hard 2% inflation target, rejecting market perception of higher tolerance.
- Moving away from post-GFC forward guidance reduces communication necessity but creates ambiguity for markets.
- Real yields should be higher given inflation persistence and current policy framework messaging.
Quiet Kev Allows Markets to Speak
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- Kevin Warsh's quiet Fed strategy allows markets to price in policy rather than forward guidance, but market response shows skepticism.
- 30-year yield spike to 5.23%, dollar weakness, and rising breakevens signal market disbelief in Warsh's inflation commitment.
- Three FOMC dissenters (rare alignment) suggest internal doubt about Warsh's approach, with more potential dissenters possible.
The Importance of Being Obsolencent
Craig Tindale
- Mainstream economists misdiagnose China's state-directed economy as market distortions rather than a fundamentally different paradigm based on production as power.
- China operates under a strategic framework where technological capability equals sovereignty and market access is conditional, unlike Western market-centric assumptions.
- Western analysts interpret strategic overcapacity and dependency as inefficiencies to be corrected, while Beijing sees them as long-term leverage and capability acquisition.
The 30-Year TIPS Hits 3%. And They're Still "Printing Money."
Garrett Baldwin
- Fed announcement catalyzed a 2:35 PM squeeze in markets followed by weakness, coinciding with Kevin Warsh's remarks about AI importance.
- Bond yields surged with 10-year reaching 4.68% (near critical 4.75% level) and 30-year TIPS breaking toward 3%, signaling real rate pressure.
- Despite Fed's lack of tightening action, market-implied inflation expectations and real rates suggest monetary policy remains constrained by underlying economic pressures.
The Bond Bear Market Isn't Over
Prometheus Research
- Fed's monetary policy gauge signals persistent upward pressure on rates despite stable growth and low inflation, suggesting a hiking cycle is likely ahead.
- Labor markets show signs of inflecting tighter while nominal GDP remains elevated, creating conflicting signals for monetary policy direction.
- Bond bear market likely continues as a hiking cycle offers worst risk-adjusted returns for Treasuries unless triggered by significant growth shock or demand destruction.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Fed left rates unchanged in a 9-3 vote despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, with three 'Heartland Hawks' voting for a rate increase.
- Chair Warsh's argument that bond market tightening is doing the Fed's work lacks credibility as Treasury yields surged further post-announcement to multi-year highs.
- Major equity indices suffered significant declines following the Fed decision, with the Dow posting its worst day since April 2025.
Note:
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- Ron Insana will provide a detailed analysis of the Fed's latest decision and Kevin Warsh's news conference.
- Market recap and economic insights follow the Federal Reserve announcement.
- South Korea emerges as a relevant economic or market focus point warranting attention.
Warshing machine, Jelly on iPhone, Zuck's distractions
Gregory Marks from Gregoryās Substack
- Fed Chair Warsh's approach focuses on fulfilling the Fed's traditional mandate rather than extending economic cycles like recent predecessors.
- The Fed has a poor predictive track record but Fed chairs contradict themselves by providing forward guidance despite claiming they don't predict the future.
- Market-based measures that inform Fed decisions are themselves influenced by the Fed's explicit statements about future intentions, creating circular logic.
- Warsh's legacy will likely center on cleaning up the institutional mess left by previous monetary policy approaches.
War Note and FOMC Preview
MacroEdge Research
- Fed faces narrow window in July and September for rate hikes given elevated embedded inflation and structural demographic headwinds not present in 2008.
- Geopolitical escalation in Middle East, including Houthi involvement and Iran using $85 Brent oil threshold as signaling mechanism, poses inflation and energy supply risks.
- Employment data continues weakening while inflation remains elevated, creating policy tension for FOMC decision.
The Observatory: Motor Vehicle Monitor
Prometheus Research
- Motor vehicle sales continue expanding with significant volatility, though domestic production and capacity utilization remain limited.
- Nominal sales and employment in the motor vehicle industry show expansion, indicating continued industry strength.
- Motor vehicle activity remains modestly positive for GDP conditions despite ongoing volatility in the sector.
The AI Boom Is Hiding a Stagnating Global Economy
John Aziz
- Global economic growth is holding up at 3.2-3.3% despite falling growth forecasts and rising inflation expectations across major economies.
- Consumer confidence has fallen below long-term averages in G20 nations as higher food and energy bills erode household purchasing power.
- AI investment boom may be masking underlying economic stagnation, with elevated energy costs and high borrowing rates pressuring economies worldwide.
Signal & Noise Filter
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- The FOMC meeting carries limited new signal value due to Chair Warsh's disdain for forward guidance and the hawkish policy path already telegraphed.
- Credit markets are pricing real risks differently than equity markets: noise includes earnings season GAAP artifacts and hyperscaler AI capex decisions coinciding with Fed communication.
- Real yields have round-tripped, suggesting the signal underneath the noise is a shift in the interest rate regime rather than hawkish hold confirmation.
Keeping the Faith (TMAP)
BowTiedMara from BowTiedMara - Argentina & Geoarbitrage
- Argentina's macro outlook improves with Central Bank charter reform criminalizing deficit monetization and the BCRA approaching $50B gross reserves, addressing core institutional problems.
- Despite positive policy changes, President Milei's poll ratings are declining, indicating disconnect between economic reforms and public sentiment.
- The chainsaw reforms cut 71,000+ public sector jobs and reduce effective tax burden, positioning Argentina toward 1990s fiscal levels while Milei builds influence before 2027 elections.
Markets · 13
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Author expresses deep market concern despite most bullish observers still betting the bull market continues, citing consensus blindness to downside risks.
- July 29 earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Lam Research and others showed mixed signals: Lam's 30% revenue growth and 52% gross margins validate AI infrastructure demand.
- Rising concerns include Iran escalation, inflation dynamics, private credit stress, and the 'Leopold' (fund crisis) as systemic vulnerabilities.
Long Bonds Puke and More Selling
Andrew Sarna
- 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.23%, highest since 2007, signaling potential end to 40 years of declining interest rates.
- Massive hedge fund de-grossing of 3.5 standard deviations occurred, with largest three-day long selling in technology since 2016.
- Market breadth deteriorating sharply: SPY near all-time highs while momentum down 35% and semis down 25%, indicating concentrated vs. broad weakness.
Chart of the Week - Leveraged ETF Trading
Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
- Leveraged long-to-short ETF ratio surged to 2021 stimulus-level extremes, historically flagging short-term market peaks.
- Indicator adds to growing list of topping signals across multiple sentiment and momentum measures.
- Burden of proof shifts to bulls; caution warranted as desperation-driven retail positioning reaches dangerous levels.
Will Warsh Crash The Stock Market?
Capital Flows
- S&P 500 down nearly 4% from all-time highs with NASDAQ down 12%, driven by two clear macro factors putting downward pressure on equities.
- Macro liquidity flows and cross-border capital movements are critical drivers of market direction that most investors ignore until portfolios suffer losses.
- Article identifies specific catalysts for current selling pressure and provides framework for when that pressure will subside.
Information Timing and Release: The Gaming of Guidance!
Aswath Damodaran from Musings on Markets
- SEC proposal to shift from quarterly to semi-annual financial reporting could reduce information frequency and increase stock price volatility.
- Fed Chair Warsh's stance on reduced guidance conflicts with the need for market clarity, as bond markets are already tightening conditions independently.
- Information timing and release frequency directly impact market behavior, skew, and investor decision-making patterns.
You might soon be able to buy futures and options on your favorite sports team
Bob Pisani
- CME is launching FutureSports Performance Indexes (FSPI) allowing retail and institutional investors to trade futures and options on individual sports teams and players.
- FSPI indexes will track real-time team/player performance metrics from official league statistics, starting at a base value of 7,500 per season.
- This financial innovation creates a new asset class bridging sports analytics with derivatives markets, similar to how stock indexes function.
Live Discussion on the Fed at 2 pm
Garrett Baldwin
- Markets face headwinds from Iran tensions, AI trade weakness, rising rates, and Fed policy uncertainty.
- Live discussion at 2 PM with Mark Sebastian at OptionPit will cover the Fed statement, Kevin Warsh conference response, and upcoming earnings.
- Author identifies multiple market pressures creating volatility and uncertainty for near-term positioning.
Markets Grapple with Reality
Andrew Sarna
- Goldman's high beta momentum basket is tracking its worst monthly performance on record, worse than 2000 and 2009, while broader markets remain resilient.
- Over $8 trillion of US debt will need refinancing in the next 12 months, creating strong incentive to lower rates despite fiscal imbalances.
- Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have returned to Global Financial Crisis-era levels, and elevated home prices with higher financing costs have halted pending home sales.
Korean Memory & Football's Cap Table
Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
- SK Hynix' 557% operating profit surge disappointingly missed market expectations, showing investors were pricing in even more optimistic fantasy numbers.
- KOSPI fell 9% following Tuesday's 11% drop for worst two-day performance on record, with broader Asia-Pacific index hitting lowest level since April.
- SK Hynix is aggressively locking in five-year supply contracts with deposits, suggesting the company internally believes AI infrastructure spending may cool significantly.
The Insurance Time Bomb | Rod Dubitsky | Ep1
Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
- Rod Dubitsky identifies phantom capital on life insurers' balance sheets at scale 100x larger than the 1989 S&L crisis, using the same analytical methodology that predicted previous market collapses.
- A regulator allowed worthless certificates to count as capital in 1989; the same instrument reappears today in private credit holdings backing American annuities.
- Dubitsky's career spans Black Monday 1987, the S&L collapse from inside regulators, Moody's during the invention of crisis instruments, and Credit Suisse's prescient downgrades.
Nvidia's $250B OpenAI Backstop and the Credit Market Tell
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Nvidia's $250B financing guarantee for OpenAI's data center triggered the largest one-day jump in Nvidia credit default swaps on record despite equity markets appearing flat.
- Credit markets signaled alarm at Nvidia's contingent liability while equities ignored it, revealing a two-market divergence on tail risk assessment.
- The credit market reaction suggests investors view Nvidia's implicit guarantee as a material balance sheet risk not priced into the equity market.
Weekend at Alphabetās
Gold and geopolitics
- S&P 500 is down 3% from June record; not at January highs despite claims of current record levels.
- Gold, silver, and HUI mining index all peaked in January, down 28%, 52%, and 40% respectively from those highs.
- Q2 earnings growth jumped from 24.8% to 37.9% year-over-year in a single week, with 14 points of growth coming from a narrow subset.
The Pickpocket Economy
Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts
- Bull market has systematically excused corporate fraud and misconduct, creating conditions for what Bloomberg calls 'The Golden Age of Grift.'
- Widespread perception that 'everybody is trying to pull one over on you' reflects genuine acceleration in fraud, grift, and corporate deception.
- Sharp increase in stock valuations has coincided with rising fraud rates, suggesting market euphoria masks deteriorating corporate ethics and governance.
Culture · 10
Myth vs. Science: What Really Relieves Body Tightness
Zenith Within by Dr.Ā Sara Redondo
- Body tightness and stiffness are primarily fascia-related phenomena, not localized muscle soreness, and cannot be 'reversed' with simple 90-second stretches.
- Fascia acts like the wood in a violināproviding structural tension and vibration transmissionāwhile muscles are the strings getting all the attention.
- Common claims about foam rolling 'releasing adhesions' and post-menopause tightness being worse lack strong scientific support beyond confident marketing language.
Your belly fat isn't a willpower problem
Parent Fit Club
- Abdominal fat retention driven by cortisol stress hormones rather than calorie deficit or exercise intensity.
- Traditional approaches of eating less and training more exacerbate cortisol-driven fat storage and energy dysregulation.
- Solution requires modifying diet composition and reducing training volume rather than intensifying restrictive approaches.
The plastic in your morning routine is quietly lowering your testosterone (Dr. Shanna Swan's 30-year warning)
Strong After 40
- Western male sperm counts declined 52.4% between 1973-2011, now dropping 2.6% annually globally per Dr. Shanna Swan's research.
- Plastic chemical exposure through daily products is primary driver of reproductive biology disruption, not major industrial sources.
- Morning routine habits represent highest single-point chemical exposure risk for testosterone and fertility decline.
No, Then Yes
Jared Dillian from We're Gonna Get Those Bastards
- Author was invited to speak and DJ at a financial conference but communications broke down after submitting technical requirements.
- Reflects on disappointment when opportunities fall through without clear closure or explanation, preferring direct rejection to ghosting.
- Uses personal anecdote to explore themes of communication, expectation management, and acceptance in professional relationships.
The $12 Cup of Nothing
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Luxury branding experiments repeatedly show consumers attributing premium qualities to ordinary products when presented with upscale framing and marketing.
- A 2026 Jimmy Kimmel segment had people describe tap water as a $12 luxury beverage with tasting notes like nutmeg and mineral finish.
- Payless's 'Palessi' stunt in Santa Monica demonstrates how context, presentation, and price anchoring can drive perception of product quality regardless of actual merit.
How the Creator Economy Took Over Media
The Prof G Pod
- 57% of Gen Z aspires to become creators, but only a tiny fraction achieve meaningful income.
- Top creators like Derek Thompson and Oliver Darcy have successfully monetized independent writing, surpassing traditional media salaries.
- The creator economy shows a bifurcated market with real success at the top but limited opportunity for most.
Roman Holiday
Primal Gourmet
- Rome's food scene is exceptional but crowded with overhyped Instagram-popular restaurants to avoid.
- The author provides curated restaurant recommendations in a Google Map to help visitors navigate dining choices.
- A July visit requires preparation (water bottle, fan) due to intense heatwaves, but the Eternal City remains magical and worth visiting.
This Israeli Doctor Flew All Night to Rwanda to Save a Babyās Life
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Gerard Misago grew up in rural Rwanda and decided to become a doctor after watching his uncle treat his malaria.
- After medical school and pediatric cardiology fellowship, Misago returned to Rwanda to run a rural hospital treating children.
- An Israeli doctor flew overnight to Rwanda to work with Misago on a life-saving intervention for a newborn patient.
Kitchen Scraps: Sad Kitchens and Fake Barbecue News
Chris Kimball's Substack
- Roz Chast's illustrated book 'The Two Saddest Kitchens' humorously explores frustrations with finicky kitchen equipment and design.
- Hasegawa Wood Core Soft Rubber Cutting Board is identified as the superior cutting board despite being the most expensive option.
- The author emphasizes the importance of proper kitchen equipment quality for core cooking tasks.
- Upcoming Milk Street Radio interview features Roz Chast discussing kitchen humor and design problems.
Five Historical Novels Every Child Should Read Before High School
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Historical fiction published before 1970 helps students understand past values and traditions while resisting presentism and modern moral judgment.
- Five recommended novels span American history from colonial era through Civil War, with titles like Johnny Tremain and Carry On, Mr. Bowditch targeting ages 10ā13.
- Literary immersion into historical periods can spark deeper interest in primary sources and rigorous history study.
Politics · 9
The End of the American Empire? Why the Iran War Is Slipping Beyond Washingtonās Control
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Iran war is widening beyond Washington's control, with Saudi Arabia openly joining operations, Houthis pressuring Red Sea shipping, and Ukraine opening new fronts.
- America's three-decade strategic doctrineābased on forward bases, air superiority, precision strikes, and technological dominanceāis being tested and eroded.
- Regional actors are increasingly shaping conflict trajectory independently, transforming the Iran war from a controlled U.S. operation into a multi-sided regional struggle.
Suddenly, Jews Are To Blame For Climate Change?
John Aziz
- Antisemitic conspiracy theories falsely blaming Israel for climate change are spreading virally on social media with medieval pogrom-like rhetoric.
- Claims linking Israeli data centers and nuclear programs to climate change ignore that nuclear energy is carbon-neutral and data centers powered by renewables produce no net emissions.
- Moral panic around technology infrastructure enables baseless scapegoating divorced from factual environmental impact analysis.
Oz Party Pulls Back The Curtain On ZIONISM & PALESTINIANISM š®š± DR. EINAT WILF
Shana Meyerson from Unapologetically Jewish
- Dr. Einat Wilf, former Israeli Knesset member, leads the Oz Party with a platform balancing Zionism and realistic Palestinian relations.
- Her vision transcends traditional left-right political spectrum, positioning itself as centrist with a coherent plan for Israeli future.
- Podcast discusses how Wilf's deep understanding of both Zionism and Palestinianism informs her approach to two-state solutions.
The LatAm Decade Ahead
Nico from AiQ
- Latin American politics directly and dominantly impact asset prices, making it essential to understand local political cycles before investing.
- U.S. politics increasingly mirrors Latin America-style populism, providing a useful parallel for understanding America's current trajectory.
- Election outcomes in key countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia) drive significant gains or losses for regional equity investors.
- The post outlines actionable allocations and lifestyle insights for navigating South America as part of a decade-long investment theme.
Tone-deaf
Irina Slav on energy
- FIFA's plan to sell a 20% stake in a new commercial entity valued at $20 billion represents the ultimate transformation of sport into a packaged product.
- FIFA has shown stunning tone-deafness by ignoring social media backlash, petitions, and criticism from the controversial World Cup.
- The decision reflects a broader tendency toward tone-deaf leadership at a moment that calls for accountability and restraint.
- FIFA's shift from sports organization to pure business enterprise marks a fundamental abandonment of the sport's traditional values.
The End of the American Empire
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran war has challenged four core assumptions underpinning U.S. military dominance: forward bases, air superiority, precision strikes, and technological overwhelm.
- Despite demonstrating overwhelming military superiority, the U.S. failed to achieve its primary objective of restoring secure maritime access.
- Inexpensive missiles and mass-produced drones have rendered American bases and allies vulnerable, undermining the cost-benefit equation of power projection.
- The geopolitical model that sustained American dominance since the 1991 Gulf War appears fundamentally broken by recent conflicts.
What Andy Burnham's Ā£80 T-shirt really tells us
Ed Conway
- UK PM Andy Burnham's casual T-shirt wardrobe represents departure from formal precedent, with designer pieces costing significantly more than public perception suggests.
- The controversy highlights media focus on political theater and appearance during summer recess rather than substantive policy issues.
- The story reveals broader tension between populist 'man of the people' messaging and actual consumption patterns of political leaders.
The End of the American Empire
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- The Iran conflict has fundamentally challenged America's strategic position and the geopolitical model relied upon since the 1991 Gulf War.
- Traditional U.S. military advantagesāforward bases, air superiority, precision strikes, and technological dominanceāhave been exposed as vulnerable to cheaper missiles and drones.
- Despite overwhelming military superiority, the U.S. has struggled to achieve its core political objective of restoring secure commercial access to critical maritime corridors.
What Happened to Falun Gong?
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- China's 1999 crackdown on Falun Gong eliminated a spiritual practice with 70-80 million adherents that rivaled Communist Party membership in scale.
- The government deployed systematic torture, labor camps, and propaganda to suppress practitioners and eliminate organizational structures outside state control.
- A suspicious correlation emerged around 2000 when China's organ transplant industry exploded following the suppression campaign, suggesting potential organ harvesting.
AI · 9
The Beheading of Books and the Humanitarian Problem
Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast
- LLM builders are physically destroying rare books using hydraulic cutters to digitize them faster, leaving mutilated remains.
- Digitizing without preserving physical copies represents centralized control rather than true preservation of knowledge.
- Physical books on paper provide an unhackable, decentralized offline backup immune to digital compromise.
Model Behavior: Taylor Lorenz
Substack
- Substack launches 'Model Behavior' series exploring how writers and creators use and disclose AI tools in their work.
- Taylor Lorenz discusses how writing style choices like frequent adverbs are now incorrectly attributed to AI despite being her natural voice.
- Publishers and creators are navigating evolving norms around AI disclosure and usage as tools develop rapidly and public perception remains cautious.
Dario takes it on the chin
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei faced backlash for opposing open-weight AI models while the company bulk-destroys rare books for training data.
- Most of the AI industry signed a letter supporting open-weight models, but Amodei's resistance statement was seen as tone-deaf and self-serving.
- Amodei lost goodwill with the industry after his stance, with David Sacks and others criticizing the hypocrisy of locking down distillation while extracting training value from copyrighted materials.
I Built The Token Saver Skill To Cut My Token Use By 90%. Here Is What It Can And Cannot Do For You.
Nate from Nateās Substack
- The author built a Token Saver skill that reduced token consumption by 90% in OpenAI Codex usage.
- Of 3.77 billion tokens consumed, 95.73% were reused input tokens, signaling inefficiencies in prompt continuity.
- Reused tokens are not inherently wasteful as continuity is essential for tool utility, but optimization opportunities exist through caching and prompt management.
Weāve Been Diagnosing Alzheimerās Backwards. That Just Changed.
Zenith Within by Dr.Ā Sara Redondo
- A new blood test using pTau217 could represent the biggest shift in Alzheimer's diagnosis by catching disease earlier while avoiding false alarms.
- Traditional Alzheimer's diagnosis relies on observing symptoms after years of underlying pathology buildup, missing the critical early intervention window.
- The diagnostic challenge mirrors smoke detector design: triggering early enough to catch real problems without false alarms that cause users to ignore the system.
- Earlier biomarker detection based on blood tests could enable intervention before cognitive symptoms emerge.
Turn Claude Opus 5 Into a Financial Analyst That Never Sleeps š
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Claude Opus 5 ranks first on Finance Agent v2 benchmark at 58.63%, narrowly beating competitors but meaning roughly two of five analyst tasks still produce errors.
- At 47.71% on the strict all-pass metric, even the best AI model fails more than half of entry-level financial analysis tasks, limiting utility as unattended oracle.
- An AI financial analyst costing roughly the price of coffee offers a viable drafting tool for investment banking analysis, but requires human verification and oversight.
The Actual Reason Why Google āFell Outā of the AI Race Changes Everything
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- Google voluntarily withdrew from the AI race despite remaining technically alive, not due to losing but due to a strategic choice to pursue a different path than OpenAI and Anthropic.
- The piece presents an 8,000-word deep dive into why Google's underwhelming I/O, executive departures, and slower model pace reflect intentional withdrawal rather than competitive failure.
- Google's reasons for stepping back from the AI race are counterintuitive and challenge the narrative of being left behind by competitors.
Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Sam Altman and Elon Musk have repeatedly claimed singularity is near without defining the term, repeating unfounded assertions with no rigorous justification.
- CEO sensationalism is standard practice in modern business, making outlandish claims practically required for headlines and investor enthusiasm.
- We lack concrete evidence or clear definitions for AGI claims, and current AI systems demonstrably fall short of the capabilities singularity rhetoric suggests.
Of Course OpenAI Chose Sheba Hospital in Israel.
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Over 40 million people daily use ChatGPT for health symptom queries, with 70% occurring outside clinic hours when professional medical care is unavailable.
- ChatGPT Health under-triaged half of 60 medical emergency scenarios in March testing, demonstrating critical safety gaps for unsupervised health advice.
- OpenAI's selection of Israel's Sheba Hospital for AI health applications reflects deployment of unvetted technology with significant medical liability risks.
Energy · 6
The Four Seas Cataclysm: When the Worldās Arteries Burn and the Silence Screams Louder Than the Shocks
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Drone strikes on LNG liquefaction and regasification ships near Suez Canal mark escalation of geopolitical conflict from Three Seas to Four Seas Crisis.
- Global energy crisis is metastasizing beyond contained regional conflict with potential to disrupt critical maritime arteries supplying world energy.
- Western political leadership remains dangerously unresponsive to mounting energy catastrophe while China observes the unfolding chaos strategically.
EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-24-26
Tim Dallinger's Energy Report
- US crude inventories fell 7.2 MMB to 7% below seasonal average with commercial stocks approaching historically low 2018 levels.
- Fair value model estimates WTI should trade above $100 per barrel despite current $84 spot price, suggesting significant upside risk.
- SPR draws slowing and crude imports remaining low as Venezuela gains cannot offset OPEC losses, leaving limited supply cushion.
Three Great Oil Companies - and One That the Market Has Missed
Bison Insights
- Three Canadian oil producers (Tamarack Valley, Headwater Exploration, Cardinal Energy) have delivered strong performance through scale, discovery, and efficient capital deployment.
- A fourth Canadian oil company exhibits similar operational metrics and strategy to these outperformers but trades at a significant discount despite comparable production and cash flow margins.
- The market's valuation gap appears disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting a potential value opportunity in overlooked oil assets with proven management execution.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Matt Warder added 60 basis points of BTU and 25 basis points of CNR on recent market selloffs.
- Metallurgical coal prices have returned to expected levels near $220, with no fundamental changes in the market.
- METC trading below $10 presents a tempting opportunity despite current buying focus on BTU and CNR.
Where The Real Money Is Being Made
Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
- AI data centers require $8 trillion in capex to reach 100 gigawatts, demanding $800 billion annual profits just for debt serviceāeconomically unsustainable at current technology prospects.
- IBM CEO estimates only 0ā1% probability of achieving artificial general intelligence, yet capital markets are funding the sector like a religion rather than rational business.
- Hyperscalers now demand consistent, industrial-scale power from nuclear and fossil sources after a decade of environmental posturing, creating critical energy infrastructure opportunity.
š¬ New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium low-vol coking coal rose $1.50/t to $222.00/t FOB on a single cargo trade, but overall market sentiment remains soft.
- Physical coking coal market continues to struggle with oversupply outpacing demand despite the price uptick.
- Multiple spot cargoes remain available, indicating weak underlying demand despite temporary price improvement.