★ Priority · 11
Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Back. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump has reinstated a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and proposed a 20% toll on cargo transiting the strait.
- The US conducted three consecutive nights of strikes on Iran and declared resumption of hostilities beginning July 7.
- The UAE reported Iranian strikes on two of its tankers, escalating regional tensions and commodity prices.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- KOSPI formed a tactical hammer pattern at support after SK Hynix's record drop, setting up potential bounce in semiconductors.
- SOX index made higher low at 50-day moving average, with MU also testing 50d support, resembling 1995/1997/2000 playbook that led to 1-2 bounces.
- Earnings season beginning with aggressive traders monitoring for tactical opportunities in memory/semis though broader secondary top formation possible in coming days.
My Grandfather, the Secret War Hero
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Man discovers his father's untold story through cemetery search and miraculous encounter in Prague.
- Father remained separated from son due to Communist Czechoslovakia's emigration restrictions.
- Remarkable coincidence unites family members across decades after cemetery caretaker's chance encounter.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SOXX down 3% with SK Hynix dropping 16%, signaling momentum sector weakness despite broad SPX strength.
- Brent crude up 3% amid geopolitical tensions as Trump considers seizing the Strait of Hormuz.
- Author introduces the 'Meme-rithmic Scale' framework for tracking significant meme bottoms and tops across asset classes.
A Violent Market Pretending to Be Calm
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- SPX near 7,700 target with momentum factors down 20+ percentage points, suggesting weakness beneath surface strength.
- Mag7 suffered ~15% correction, SOXX momentum fell from 80% above 200-day MA to 36% at lows, indicating broad momentum deterioration.
- Market has quietly marched toward SPX target while internals screamed, raising questions about sustainability beyond 7,700.
The Meme-rithmic Scaleâ„¢
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Le Shrub introduces 'Meme-rithmic Scale' to track recurring meme bottoms and tops across assets with specific trigger events and price levels.
- BABA triggered 'Burry Wood Meme Bottom' when both Burry and Wood sold at $93, now at $113 with 3x call returns.
- SOXX 'SK Hynix ADR Meme Top' and NASDAQ 'Buffett Meme Top' identified as key meme formations signaling potential risk-off rotation.
The Secret to Lindsey Graham’s Success. The Professor Who Has Had It with All the AI Cheating. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Lindsey Graham's sudden death sparked divided eulogies, with supporters citing alliances with Trump, Netanyahu, and Zelensky while critics highlighted principle abandonment.
- Article examines Graham's legacy and the tensions between pragmatic dealmaking and moral consistency that defined his political career.
- Broader themes include AI thinking capabilities, Maine Democratic responses to events, and Wikipedia accuracy issues alongside main political obituary.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Long USD positioning has risen significantly while price action no longer confirms the bullish view, creating potential divergence risk.
- BofA Bull/Bear indicator at 9.5/10 and options skew metrics showing extreme panic in mega-cap tech call volumes signal stretched sentiment conditions.
- Korean market experiencing severe volatility with KOSPI halted seven times this year amid -8% swings, raising questions about semiconductor cycle sustainability.
Tough Love: I Can’t Talk to My Wife About Money
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A couple's 20-year financial communication breakdown stems from incompatible spending philosophies (spend freely vs. save for future) and the husband's anxiety about unseen financial decisions.
- The wife's insistence on maintaining a separate account and resistance to transparency suggests deeper control and autonomy issues rather than purely financial disagreement.
- The underlying conflict reveals how money disputes often mask broader relationship issues around trust, transparency, and shared decision-making rather than being about dollars themselves.
You Can Lead a Horse to Water
PRIORITYMichael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
- Hannah Unterberg's prize-winning research validates that passive flows, not skill compression, explain active manager underperformance—vindicating arguments the FT dismissed as 'far-fetched' in 2020.
- Six independent literatures now document how passive inflows inflate large-cap valuations, reduce active manager alpha recovery, and shift market microstructure away from price discovery toward facilitation profits.
- When retail noise trading hits record highs yet arbitrageurs starve while market makers post historic profits, the mechanism resembles a casino rather than a poker game of price discovery.
SENTIMENT CAPITULATION.
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- Institutional investor capitulation through fund closures and strategy changes signals major market shifts, with historical precedent showing these moments precede significant repricing.
- Warren Buffett's May 1969 partnership liquidation at the peak of the 1960s bubble exemplifies how capitulation occurs when valuations become unsustainable and value opportunities vanish.
- Current analysis covers semiconductors, sentiment, MAG7, China tech, metals, and correlated factor risks—suggesting massive themes could dominate the rest of 2026.
Macro · 18
The American Exceptionalism Trade
Capital Flows
- China's ~$1 trillion goods surplus behind closed capital account forces world surplus capital into US assets by necessity, underpinning S&P 500 valuations.
- Dollar's reserve status (58% of world reserves, 88% of currency trades) delivers cheapest funding globally but costs manifest as hollowed middle class and stagnant real wages.
- US physical exceptionalism (3% of global land producing 32% of output, largest navigable rivers, 3.6% cargo costs vs 10% in East Asia) provides structural advantage independent of sentiment.
Four Tropes and Four Refutations
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- Refutes the 'excess supply, insufficient demand' trope by arguing China's apparent imbalance reflects compositional mismatches across non-fungible sectors rather than aggregate demand shortage.
- Challenges the 'chronic overcapacity' narrative using Pasinetti-style vertically integrated subsystems framework showing demand and productivity growth differ across sectors.
- Contends that saturation in legacy goods coexists with strong demand in high-tech and green solutions, making aggregate analysis misleading during structural economic transition.
YWR GP: The Networked Pension Fund
PAIDErik@YWR
- Traditional strategic asset allocation frameworks are obsolete because modern investments (AI, private credit, sports rights) span multiple asset classes simultaneously.
- The question for pension funds has shifted from 'where should we allocate capital' to 'how do we navigate non-linear, multi-dimensional market structures.'
- AI infrastructure is not purely tech but encompasses equity, venture, private equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate, and geopolitical dimensions requiring holistic analysis.
The Dog and Pony Show
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Federal Reserve's large balance sheet is symptomatic of the underlying problem: $2 trillion annual U.S. fiscal deficits, not the root cause.
- The Fed has become subservient to fiscal policy and maintains an implicit mandate to keep Treasury markets smoothly functioning rather than maintaining price stability.
- Historical context from 1932 demonstrates recurring concerns about technological displacement of workers persist despite past recessions being overcome.
Australian Rates: The Market Is Too Relaxed About Sticky Inflation
Global Macro Method
- Australian rate markets are pricing too benign a path for inflation return to target, underestimating sticky services and domestic price pressures.
- Services inflation and business cost-pass-through remain persistent despite goods inflation moderating, keeping RBA cautious about declaring victory.
- The short-rate curve offers attractive risk/reward for positioning ahead of upcoming CPI data and RBA meetings as markets reprice hawkishly.
The Next Phase of the Liquidity Cycle
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Analysis of the next phase of the liquidity cycle and its market implications.
- Discussion of how global liquidity movements affect equity valuations and risk assets.
- Assessment of timing and positioning for market participants navigating changing liquidity conditions.
Liquidity, Commodities and Bond Stress: The Next Market Sell-Off Risk?
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- High equity valuations alone rarely end bull markets; Global Liquidity sustainability is the key risk factor.
- Bond and commodity markets show emerging pressure points that could trigger market sell-offs.
- Leverage and collateral demand dynamics are more critical than valuation multiples for determining market turning points.
Mythic Atlas Report — Issue 02
Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
- Growth Engine signals Stage 4 Constructive with equities fully allocated and geographic risk positioned globally.
- Economic Momentum Index at 1.59 indicates real expansion but 46% below 15-year average, suggesting a cooler late-cycle environment.
- Weakness concentrated in Consumer (33%), Liquidity (0%), and Housing (0%), while Labor and Global categories remain strong at 100%.
The Maradona Theory of Interest Rates
Substack - Alf (The Macro Compass)
- Mervyn King's Maradona theory suggests central banks use conflicting signals (hawkish/dovish rhetoric) to mask unchanged policy direction.
- US real consumer spending and corporate hiring in cyclical sectors remain subdued relative to historical averages despite headline optimism.
- Federal Reserve may employ misdirecting communication while keeping rates steady longer as macro data supports patience rather than aggressive moves.
Hyperscaler Debt Appetite Widens Credit Spreads
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Escalating US-Iran military strikes and Iranian closure of Strait of Hormuz threaten oil supply but markets treating it as manageable 1980s-style Tanker War continuum.
- Brent crude rose 4% toward $79/bbl on geopolitical risk while gold slipped below $4,100 on yield pressure as markets assess persistent but contained supply risk.
- Hyperscaler debt appetite is widening credit spreads as structural realities of Gulf warfare persist, requiring investors to adapt to indefinite conflict versus binary panic scenarios.
Weekly Macro Note: War Resumes (Again), Hormuz Traffic Analysis, Why War Is Bullish, A Look at Asian Markets Part 3
MacroEdge Research
- Iran escalating Hormuz control efforts to push Brent crude toward preferred $85/bbl price level as current prices too low for regional energy producers.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero in mid-July with global SPR inventories at tank-bottom levels, forcing resolution via military escalation or higher oil prices.
- Trump administration likely to react to 5-7% oil moves; WTI near 200-day moving average breakpoint creates near-term catalysts for either conflict intensification or price reset.
Running Out of Runway
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- May consumer credit contraction appears positive but likely masks financial weakness rather than household strength.
- Credit card balance declines can reflect either healthy deleveraging or maxed-out borrowers unable to take on more debt.
- Market interpretation of falling consumer debt as sign of soft landing may be misreading underlying economic distress.
Walk in the Pines #405
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Weekly briefing curates charts, quotes, and reads focused on macro trends and market themes.
- Includes commentary on Japan's pension fund investment strategy and China's helium export restrictions.
- References analysis on distinguishing maps from territories in modern financial markets.
GPIF WHIFF?
PAIDPinecone Weekly Brief
- Brief note on Japan's GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund) positioning and potential market impact.
- Part of broader Pinecone Macro Research weekly briefing with portfolio and cascade subscription offerings.
- Includes standard disclaimers about research methodology and investment risks.
Weekend thoughts
Gold and geopolitics
- Gold reached $4,119 weekly close with key support at $3,768, while central banks added record reserves with Poland reaching 632.4 tonnes and PBOC continuing 20-month streak of purchases.
- Silver shows structural deficit in data-center power demand (+5,200% since 2000) with Asian markets significantly outperforming Western markets (+81.63% Shanghai vs +69.65% Western).
- AI now represents over 25% of US GDP growth (~8% of total GDP), exceeding the Dot-Com era's 6.5% contribution, fundamentally reshaping macroeconomic drivers.
Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 12, 2026
Santiago Capital Research
- Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1% with Nvidia up 4% and Meta up 6% as AI trade refused to quit despite an oil shock that reignited inflation fears.
- WTI crude snapped its slide to settle at $71.41, up 4% on the week after attackers struck vessels in Strait of Hormuz including Saudi and Qatari energy carriers.
- The tape flipped from the prior week: Nasdaq led while Dow slipped 0.5%, with financials and industrials unable to keep pace with semiconductor and AI stocks.
Life Support
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- June existing home sales hit 4.09M (annualized), matching 2008 financial crisis lows when adjusted for population growth—representing crisis-level transaction volume.
- Median existing home price reached record $440,600 for the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, creating a paradox of crisis volume paired with all-time high prices.
- Market health depends on whether assets actually move; current housing market has a pulse but the split signals between volume collapse and price records suggest uncomfortable conclusions ahead.
Turning Point
Macro Musings by Danny D
- CPI and PPI data this week will be pivotal for determining whether the Fed hikes in July, with hot prints likely pressuring bonds and stocks downward.
- A data-heavy calendar includes NFIB, ADP, retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing, and multiple other economic indicators that will shape market direction.
- Geopolitical risks persist around the Strait of Hormuz as the MOU expires, with potential for renewed kinetic action or blockades affecting energy markets.
Markets · 17
Robbing Peter?
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Hyperscaler free cash flow has turned negative for the first time in history, peaking near $280B in 2024 before rolling over hard.
- The shift is not due to reduced profitability but massive redirection of cash into AI capital expenditure.
- Semiconductor companies are capturing the same cash flows that used to accrue to software giants, creating a direct wealth transfer.
- The structural shift raises questions about the sustainability of the hyperscaler business model under sustained AI capex pressure.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets are flat ahead of CPI, Warsh testimony, and major bank earnings; European markets are weaker with consumer drag.
- Asian markets rallied overnight with Japan +84bp, China +1.4%, and Korea +73bp; China facing mounting economic pressure.
- Oil prices at $87 driven by resumed Iran hostilities; major themes include bank earnings season and worker productivity records.
KATAYAMA'S WARNING SHOT
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Author acknowledges catastrophic forecast error on Japanese Yen weakness and FX volatility collapse, admitting the call deserves criticism.
- Despite poor track record, author is adding to long Yen position rather than capitulating, believing a reversal is imminent.
- Positions the Yen call as a warning shot from Japanese officials about currency weakness, setting up potential policy shift ahead.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Sector rotation from tech (XLK) to healthcare and financials (XLV) is confirmed with nearly 1,600 basis points performance spread since June 2nd peak.
- Five-sector correlation average to S&P 500 dropped to 0.456 as of July 10th, continuing an extreme divergence previously flagged as a rare signal.
- The rotation represents a fundamental shift within the current bull market, not noise, with sector correlation dispersion at multi-decade extremes.
What Are You Ranting About? Part I
Garrett Baldwin
- Leveraged ETFs use financial contracts to multiply daily movements of stocks or indices beyond normal fund structures.
- A 2x leveraged product targets doubling of index movements, creating high-risk investment vehicles.
- Article simplifies complex financial concepts following a 150-minute podcast that confused some viewers.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- U.S. stock ownership value has exceeded home equity for only the third time in 60 years, matching conditions from 1997 and 1968.
- Previous peaks in stock-to-home equity ratios preceded significant market corrections, raising questions about current valuations.
- Historical comparison reveals patterns during go-go mutual fund era and glamour stock manias that preceded downturns.
The Death of Investment. The Sequel. (Money Printer Pro)
Garrett Baldwin
- Rising index passive investing has made stock picking increasingly pointless, with a SocGen quant research report arguing indexing has broken traditional market mechanisms.
- Author references decade-old 'Death of Stocks' thesis from previous firm, noting current market structure issues have been building for years.
- Momentum signals advocated as critical tool for market entry timing and hedging given deteriorating market internals and structural shifts.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly lower as earnings season kicks off with Netflix, Taiwan Semi, and major banks while key economic data arrives this week.
- Critical upcoming events include Warsh Congressional testimony, US and EU CPI, and extensive China economic data affecting sentiment.
- Author notes Americans broadly thriving despite political dysfunction; takeaway from multi-city tour suggests consumer resilience remains intact.
Rising Yields, Weak Yen, and AI Demand
Andrew Sarna
- 10-year yields rose 8 bps in US and 7 bps in Canada; Energy and Tech led while Healthcare lagged as summer trading began.
- Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz declining despite brief MOU reopening as U.S.-Iran strikes continue, adding geopolitical oil premium.
- Micron earnings raise question whether AI-driven demand improvements are sustainable against inevitable new competition despite strong GPU demand trends.
Website/Model Update: Breadth and Trend/Reversion Pages
Global Macro Method
- Global Macro Method platform upgraded with unified Trend/Reversion dashboard showing FX, Equities, Rates, and Commodities models with signal flips and positioning alignment.
- New visual history compares momentum and multi-speed models side-by-side to identify confirmed trends, mixed signals, and emerging regime changes at a glance.
- Sector Breadth page now tracks stocks above moving averages across market and individual sectors with momentum, distribution, and 52-week ranges for breadth analysis.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P down 26bp near highs amid U.S.-Iran tensions and tech sector weakness; European markets outperforming on lack of mega-cap tech exposure.
- Asia declined sharply with Korea down 9%; oil up 2.0% on geopolitical risk while Bitcoin down 1.7% in risk-off mood.
- China GDP slowdown forecasted as AI proves insufficient to reverse decline; data week includes earnings and macro releases affecting positioning.
Calmer Indices, Wilder Stocks
AP Research
- S&P 500 finished higher despite early-week geopolitical stress from Iran/Hormuz tensions, with tech dip buyers returning Thursday-Friday.
- Samsung's disappointing earnings created sector rotation risk in chips, but SK Hynix ADR debut provided reassurance with strong pricing above offering.
- Information technology, energy, and communication services led while defensive sectors (materials, healthcare, staples) lagged, marking partial reversal of recent defensive rotation.
Plumbing Notes: The Equity Repo Mania
Conks
- Equity repo funding rates have become volatile as money market rates undergo compression, creating funding stress for leveraged stock positions.
- Dealer banks experienced massive influx of demand to finance leveraged equity baskets (S&P 500), temporarily overloading balance sheets.
- Rising rate expectations and reduced demand for sovereign assets are influencing dollar funding market clearing rates and equity repo dynamics.
CoreWeave, Twenty-Seven Years
Cape Fear Advisors
- CoreWeave's Q1 2026 operations generated $968M cash but spent $7.7B on equipment, creating a significant funding gap covered by new debt and equity.
- Financial modeling shows equipment returns only 99 cents per dollar invested over their six-year depreciation schedule, with the company's debt structure requiring refinancing multiple times by October 2032.
- The company's reinvestment strategy of deploying surplus into new machines at current yields never fully clears in any single year, raising sustainability questions.
The Next Farm Crisis
Nico from AiQ
- John Deere's stock price has become decoupled from farm fundamentals, now dependent on aggressive buybacks and taxpayer subsidies to maintain valuations rather than underlying farm economics.
- Rising equipment prices driven by financial engineering create an inflationary doom loop that frustrates American farmers while Chinese competitors offer cost-effective alternatives globally.
- The company's shift from serving customers to extracting maximum profits through anti-competitive repair restrictions and premium pricing has eroded its iconic brand and customer loyalty in agriculture.
The Fed's Message to Congress is On Brand as We Kick Off Sunday's Chart Party...
Garrett Baldwin
- Professional funds hold near-zero cash, systematic strategies are adding risk despite calm indexes masking violent individual stock swings—creating unprecedented reversal probability.
- Semiconductor buyers rush into chips down 16%, but Korea's AI hardware trade is cracking as buyers watch free cash flow disappear into expensive collective projects.
- Upcoming inflation data, bank earnings, and Fed testimony form a critical week where breaking key moving averages could trigger a reversal into the 'Danger Zone.'
The Mega-Cap Opportunity: Meta & Microsoft!
Capitalist-Letters
- Only 3% of US firms since 1926 generated all market wealth, making exceptional business quality more important than price—yet exceptional companies rarely trade at discounts.
- Exceptional businesses can categorically undervalue only during general crashes, industry recessions, or revolutionary technology emergence; Meta and Microsoft currently present mega-cap opportunities.
- The strategy of buying exceptional companies at attractive prices works exceptionally but requires patience, discipline, and the rare convergence of undervaluation with business exceptionality.
Politics · 13
America Just Served the ICC the Only Warrant It Ever Earned
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- The ICC issued warrants for Putin (abduction of Ukrainian children) and Netanyahu (unspecified charges), but enforcement reveals institutional weakness.
- Putin received a red carpet welcome in Mongolia despite being a wanted ICC subject, while Netanyahu routinely avoids ICC member states.
- The ICC's enforcement power operates only on law-abiding nations, making it ineffective against powerful actors who ignore its authority.
Charlie Kirk's Death Created Just One Good Thing. And Candace Owens Destroyed It.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Author attended both Trump and Kamala rallies pre-2024 election and found Trump rally community passionate and positive versus Kamala rally appearing fearful and negative.
- Charlie Kirk's memorial revealed deeper appreciation for Kirk's substantive work beyond initial assumptions of typical partisan commentary.
- Recent political journey reflects broader trend of voters re-examining media narratives and party alignments independent of routine voting patterns.
The clock is ticking on Social Security: 2032 is closer than you think.
Bob Pisani
- Social Security OASI Trust Fund faces insolvency in Q4 2032, one quarter earlier than last year's projection, with 22% across-the-board benefit cuts looming.
- The core problem is demographic: fewer births and significantly more retirees, creating structural imbalance where outflows ($1.61T) exceed inflows ($1.45T) annually.
- Social Security represents 5.3% of U.S. GDP ($1.61T annual payouts to 70.5 million beneficiaries), making it systemically critical and requiring urgent policy action.
The UK Bans The IRGC As A Terrorist Organisation
John Aziz
- UK bans Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as terrorist organization under new National Security Act.
- Supporting or assisting IRGC could carry 14-year sentence; sabotage on their behalf faces life imprisonment.
- Ban follows disturbing sequence of attacks against Jewish institutions and Persian-language media in Britain claimed by IMCR.
The Christians Risking Prison to Keep the Faith Alive
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Pastor Ezra Jin released after months in Chinese prison following international pressure and diplomatic intervention.
- Beijing's Zion Church grew from 20 members to ~10,000 believers across 40 cities before 2018 CCP shutdown for refusing state surveillance.
- Late 2025 crackdowns imprisoned Jin and other leaders; their courage should inspire Western commitment to protecting religious liberty.
Weekend Recap: Death, Disgrace, and Near-Death
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Senator Lindsey Graham passed away over the weekend; autopsy pending but no foul play indicated despite Iran's claims.
- Left-wing figures celebrated Graham's death, exemplifying broader pattern of rejoicing over deaths of political opponents.
- Commentary highlights perceived moral hypocrisy in selective mourning based on political ideology rather than consistent principles.
Iran update: the bombing expands. The deadlock holds.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US and allies conducted 300+ strikes across three nights targeting Iran's military infrastructure, air defense, and missile capabilities.
- CENTCOM's stated objective is to dismantle Iran's ability to attack shipping through Strait of Hormuz, not broader regime change.
- Recent escalation represents expansion beyond single retaliatory raid, with targets including ports, airports, and military installations across Iran.
Postcards from the Edge of the World: Vol. "250"
Postcards From the Edge of the World
- Author reflects on moving from Florida to Central America and examining political economy through a non-partisan lens.
- Discusses how election season noise affects discourse around economy and costs.
- Original publication concept framed sovereignty and opting out of status quo as a 'state of mind' rather than geographic location.
Mostly peaceful warmonger
Gold and geopolitics
- Author acknowledges uncertainty around recent events involving Lindsey Graham while identifying multiple conflicting theories circulating.
- Critiques media confidence in narratives that lack supporting evidence.
- Uses dark humor to examine warmonger rhetoric and the gap between rhetoric and actual violent conduct.
The Death Of Lindsey Graham
John Aziz
- Senator Lindsey Graham, age 71, died suddenly over the weekend from apparent cardiac arrest.
- Graham had recently returned from Ukraine and faced recent threats from Iranian leadership.
- While assassination is speculated, the most likely explanation remains a natural medical emergency absent evidence of foul play.
Armor Piercing
Pablo Hill from The Monetary Skeptic
- North Korea has quietly become strategically important under Trump's second term, in contrast to headline-grabbing tensions in his first.
- North Korean troops fight alongside Russia in Ukraine and supply major quantities of artillery and munitions.
- North Korea's uranium enrichment capacity is expanding with new construction at Yongbyon, confirmed by the IAEA in April.
World Cup Riots Aggravate Europe’s Deepening Social Divide
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- World Cup riots in London, Brussels, and Netherlands revealed deeper anti-Western and antisemitic sentiment among Moroccan fan mobs, with incidents including violence against police and hateful chanting.
- The outbreaks represent a pattern of social fragmentation in Europe rather than isolated incidents, with previous violent clashes occurring just days before the World Cup events.
- The article frames these incidents as evidence of Europe's deepening social divide beyond surface-level sports fandom conflict.
The CPS Excellence Agenda: A platform for Chicago school board candidates
Austin Berg | The Last Ward
- Chicago Public Schools faces a structural crisis with junk credit rating, being the nation's largest junk-bond issuer despite being the fourth-largest district.
- Math and reading outcomes for CPS fourth graders declined faster than peer districts (2017-2024), and only 17% of Chicagoans grade the system A or B.
- The first fully elected school board in Chicago history will face electing 20 board members and a citywide president amid enrollment collapse from 600,000 to 316,000 students.
Culture · 10
America's Social Life Is Shrinking
Demography Unplugged
- Americans spend 26% less time socializing face-to-face over two decades, declining from 47 to 35 minutes daily.
- Young adults ages 15-24 saw steepest drop with 43% decline from 61 to 35 minutes of daily socializing.
- Smartphones, social media, and digital platforms identified as primary drivers of reduced in-person interaction.
FAIR SCREENING - What Killed Michael Brown?
Eli from Man of Steele’s Substack
- Film screening and Q&A event scheduled for July 15 at 7pm EST through FAIR For All organization.
- Documentary explores the broader implications of the Michael Brown shooting beyond the Ferguson incident itself.
- Film's aging relevance highlights how August 2014 event marked a pivotal shift in America toward organizing around race principle.
How to Make Substitutions
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- Framework for ingredient substitution focuses on identifying the functional role each ingredient plays in a dish.
- Process involves determining what work an ingredient performs (flavor, texture, chemistry, color) then finding alternatives that do the same job.
- Multiple substitutions may be needed to replicate original ingredient's complete function and match overall flavor profile.
The 90-Minute Rule: The Strength-Training Sweet Spot for a Longer Life
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Harvard 30-year study of 147,374 adults found 90-120 minutes of weekly resistance training achieves optimal mortality benefit with no additional gain above 120 minutes.
- Resistance training at this dose reduces all-cause mortality by 13%, cardiovascular death risk by 19%, and neurological disease mortality by 27%.
- Benefits plateau sharply after 120 minutes per week, making 90-minute threshold the evidence-based 'sweet spot' for strength training investment.
Parallel Structure: The Pickup in Eddie Van Halen’s Frankenstrat on Van Halen’s First Album
Michael Burry
- Eddie Van Halen repaired a broken Gibson PAF pickup by hand-rewinding the dead coil with thinner wire to increase power for the first album.
- The modified pickup likely came from an early Gibson ES-335 that Van Halen had experimented with before the coil failed in early 1977.
- Van Halen's technical approach combined practical guitar building experience with creative problem-solving to achieve the desired sonic characteristics on the iconic Frankenstrat.
Negotiating with momentum
Derek Wallis
- Control of living beings (dogs, children) requires proximity and teaching, not restriction alone.
- Bungee cords manage tension but cannot control distance once momentum is lost.
- True influence comes from consistent guidance during low-consequence moments, building intrinsic direction over time.
The 10 Greatest Failures of Orson Welles
Ted Gioia
- Artists should be judged partly by their failures and ambitious risks, not only their greatest hits.
- Freelancing and indie work have normalized failure as a recurring part of creative life.
- A lifetime of misses and rejections often precedes eventual successes and reveals true creative resilience.
Spicy Tuna Beignets: a recipe
Notorious Foodie
- Recipe demonstrates how to make crispy potato beignets with a soft, pillowy texture by balancing dough moisture and proper frying technique.
- Spicy tuna topping uses a blend of akami and chutoro cuts to balance lean, clean flavor with richness and texture.
- The dish is customizable and can substitute beef, yellowtail, or scallop for the tuna component while maintaining the same preparation method.
NYT: "Men need better fitness role models"
Paul from AGING with STRENGTH
- Popular fitness influencers (Tim Ferriss, Peter Attia, Andrew Huberman) have created a fitness advice ecosystem that relies on clichéd masculinity tropes and increasingly extreme biohacking claims.
- A Baylor professor's critique highlights how mainstream fitness content can feel hollow and disconnected from genuine, sustainable strength-building approaches for average people.
- The article explores the gap between celebrity fitness narratives and practical, accessible fitness role models needed for men seeking genuine long-term health improvements.
The Skill of Making Mistakes
Sara
- The hardest part of making a mistake is accepting imperfection, not the mistake itself—distinguishing between accountability (investigation) and blame (ego-driven self-destruction).
- Ambitious people often collapse their maturity into self-judgment via 'I should've known better,' which blocks growth by letting ego turn mistakes into threats to self-worth.
- Growth requires examining what happened, what was known, what was missed, and what the mistake teaches—without allowing it to dictate identity or value.
Energy · 9
Artificial Bloom
PAIDDoomberg
- Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology offers an alternative to traditional gas turbines for converting natural gas to electricity for AI infrastructure.
- The acute shortage of gas turbines due to AI capex has created a multi-year backlog, opening an opportunity for alternative architectures.
- SOFC technology uses specialized ceramic materials to convert natural gas into electricity and CO2 at high temperatures, previously considered too expensive for mainstream use.
The Invisible Hand of God & Return of the NACHO
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Trump administration assumes control of Strait of Hormuz with 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo transiting the waterway, driving Brent crude toward $85/barrel.
- NACHO trade (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens) back in play as Persian Gulf remains closed to unescorted shipping, renewing energy shock fears.
- Goldman Sachs estimates Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE could route 45% of prewar Gulf exports around Strait by end of 2027, rising to 75% by late 2028 via pipeline expansions.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Speculators are aggressively selling grain markets despite rising crude prices and improving weather forecasts, showing trend momentum in commodities.
- Farmers are moving grain across the Western Hemisphere aggressively, with rain expected in days 12-15 making further short positioning risky.
- Wheat remains bearish relative to soybeans, but near-term trading caution warranted due to fading bounces and improving marginal forecasts.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- New interactive tool launched tracking global seaborne coal trade flows for 20 major countries with monthly customs data and met/thermal splits.
- Two dashboard views provide overview of global trade patterns and country-specific flows showing where coal exports/imports are directed.
- Historical data available with month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, and year-over-year momentum tracking by coal type.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell $2/ton as abundant supply outweighed weak demand from subdued steel markets.
- Seaborne market remained quiet with few buyers willing to engage due to weak steel demand, comfortable inventories, and India's monsoon.
- Premium mid-volatile coal offers emerged at $229.50/ton but no trades were reported as market conditions remained sluggish.
The energy foundations of Fortress Russia: 1
Irina Slav on energy
- Western oil majors including ExxonMobil, BP, and Shell entered Russia in 1990s following Soviet Union collapse and later exited in 2022.
- Russia's energy sector served as strategic foundation for economic resilience and geopolitical positioning.
- 3,000-word analysis of Russia's energy-based fortress economy written in 2022, split into three-part series with contemporary updates.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- U.S.-Iran tensions escalated sharply, with Iran declaring Hormuz closed and oil prices rising 4%+ as vessels face repeated attacks on alternative routes.
- WTI key resistance at $76.00 with support at $72.00; Brent resistance $80.55 and support $74.60 amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- U.S. maintains Southern Oman route remains viable despite Iranian objections, but declining vessel traffic suggests market caution on transit safety.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Extreme heat ridge pushing into Western Corn Belt with potential record temperatures suggests market significantly underestimating crop risk.
- Risk profile rated 9/10 for soybeans and 7/10 for corn given unprecedented weather hazard coverage and rapid forecast changes possible.
- Cotton and rice testing key technical levels as meteorologists chase price implications of blistering Western USA heat patterns.
There’s Plenty of Scandium Oxide, Just Not At The Price Bloom Energy Wants to Pay
The Koala from Yellow Lab Life Capital
- Scandium International Mining (SCY) requires $2,000+/kg pricing to achieve acceptable returns on first greenfield Western scandium operation at Nyngan.
- Management will not proceed with production unless securing 15-20 tonne/year offtake agreements with price floors, prioritizing shareholder returns over rapid supply growth.
- Bloom Energy and other customers seeking much lower scandium oxide pricing ($1,000-$1,500/kg) have created impasse preventing project development despite feasibility study completion.
AI · 7
The AI Economy
Andrew Sarna
- Nearly all recent US business investment growth is driven by AI-related industries, with private sector AI investment at unprecedented levels.
- Software job postings have bottomed despite AI disruption fears; AI is making developers more productive rather than replacing them.
- Q1 earnings saw higher-than-normal beat rates, but roughly 12% of tech earnings growth came from non-recurring investment markups at mega-cap AI leaders.
- OpenAI's competitive position has weakened considerably despite its early technological lead in the AI space.
AI vibe shift, broad market views
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- AI narrative deteriorating as Meta builds cloud business to rent compute, challenging supply-constrained thesis and increasing overall compute supply.
- OpenAI delaying IPO until 2026 and struggling to raise funds at ever-increasing valuations, pressuring semiconductor supply chain and AI lab capex.
- Market positioning and narrative now sole drivers of speculative semis prices; author exited entire AI portfolio citing brewing Minsky moment and vibe shift.
Fable 5 is the smarter model. I still open GPT-5.6 Sol every day — Model Fit will tell you which one is yours.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Different AI models excel at different tasks; Fable 5 ranks higher on benchmarks but ChatGPT Sol better matches author's working style.
- Model selection should depend on individual workflow patterns rather than pure performance metrics; optimal choice varies by user.
- As AI models improve, divergence in choosing between them will increase based on how different users work and think.
Intelligence Can Be Rented But Taste Must Be Earned
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI is decoupling intelligence from economic scarcity, similar to how the steam engine decoupled physical strength during industrialization.
- Success in AI age requires three elements: talent (raw potential), intelligence (learning rate), and ability (demonstrated output), but intelligence can now be rented via AI.
- Taste—the ability to discern value and quality—becomes the critical differentiator when intelligence becomes commoditized and broadly accessible.
Who Actually Makes Money When AI Eats the World? 💸
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- AI economy paradox: hyperscalers spending $700B+ on infrastructure while 95% of ChatGPT's 900M weekly users pay nothing and frontier capabilities commoditize rapidly.
- NVIDIA posted record $81.6B quarterly revenue up 85% YoY; Anthropic hit $47B revenue run-rate at $965B valuation; OpenAI topped $25B annualized revenue.
- Frontier-grade AI cost fell 128x in one year; top 15 models converge within 3 percentage points on benchmarks; open-weight MIT-licensed models now freely available.
Executive Briefing: Point an agent at your calendar and your repo, and it will show you the rules your company is …
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Organizations operate under implicit 'commandments' written by past scarcity conditions (expensive engineering time, slow context, costly mistakes) that no longer apply in an AI-enabled environment.
- AI and autonomous agents require explicitly written, legible rules to function effectively, forcing companies to surface and evaluate which implicit rules still serve a purpose versus those running on organizational inertia.
- The author articulates a framework for identifying which organizational rules remain valuable in conditions of abundance and speed, requiring deliberate governance decisions rather than inherited defaults.
Chat is dead. Agents are the new default.
Khe Hy
- This week represents another 'step change' in AI capability similar to December 2025's Opus 4.5 release, with multiple new models and product upgrades from major labs.
- OpenAI's ChatGPT 'work' now competes with Anthropic's Cowork, while ChatGPT 5.6 Sol offers a cheap, agentic alternative approaching Fable's performance on a price-adjusted basis.
- Chat interfaces are being replaced by agent-based systems as the new default paradigm, with interactive audio upgrades and cloud-based multi-player capabilities transforming knowledge work.