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Updated Monday, July 27 2026 · 06:18 AM CDT · 71 posts across last 2 days

★ Priority · 8

‘Why I Left the Left.’ Plus. . .

PRIORITY
The Free Press
  • Democratic operatives and working-class supporters are defecting to Republicans, signaling a structural shift in the party's traditional coalition.
  • Democrats have lost trust among working-class voters who feel abandoned by the party's progressive wing and policy priorities.
  • With midterms approaching and the progressive wing ascendant, this realignment has become increasingly consequential for Democratic viability.
Jul 27, 05:02 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from PauloMacro

PRIORITY
PauloMacro’s Substack
  • China's DRAM chipmaker CXMT IPO'd and rallied 6x+ as Chinese firms target crowded-out market segments (auto/mobile chips) displaced by AI GPU demand.
  • Crude fell $5 despite Saudi refinery fires and Houthi escalation, reflecting market timing mismatches and risk-off sentiment.
  • Historical pattern suggests Chinese market entry often erodes profitability; competitors should anticipate margin pressure in mid-market semiconductor segments.
Jul 27, 01:27 AMRead on Substack →

💬 New thread from HFI Research

PRIORITY
HFI Research
  • High short positioning in Brent suggests future sell-offs will be shallower, limiting downside opportunity on headlines.
  • Trump administration unlikely to accept Iranian control of Strait of Hormuz, suggesting geopolitical resolution remains distant despite current peace signals.
  • Energy trader positioning strategy: exit August BNO calls on next escalation; sell half of Jan 2027 calls; wait for high-certainty oil-math exhaustion before re-sizing.
Jul 27, 01:20 AMRead on Substack →

A Semi-Theory of Almost Everything

PRIORITY
Michael W. Green from Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 88% in Q2 2026 at 60% annualized volatility, driven partly by measurable behavioral changes in levered product holders.
  • Micron gained 230% over three months while Nvidia only managed 15% despite being the center of AI trade, suggesting concentration in semiconductor gains.
  • Structural changes in market plumbing—how levered investors behave and large price-insensitive capital flows—can explain outsized moves and may replicate in other markets.
Jul 26, 07:59 AMRead on Substack →

hedging is for gardeners

PRIORITY
Kris Abdelmessih from moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids
  • Substack's new Pangram integration can detect AI-generated content in posts with reasonable accuracy.
  • Author manages subscription overload (140 Substacks) by using scheduled jobs and Claude-Gmail integration to systematically extract value from distributions.
  • Post discusses retail options trading behavior and the concept of hedging with a casual, accessible tone.
Jul 26, 07:02 AMRead on Substack →

The Key Question on AI * - Part II

PRIORITY
Le Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
  • Critical unresolved question: if OpenAI or Anthropic fail, what happens to their $300 billion compute backlog commitments with hyperscalers?
  • Bull argument that hyperscalers can simply redirect compute to other AI companies or internal use is dismissed as weak thinking that doesn't address the scale of capital commitment.
  • Warren Buffett's recent $10 billion Google investment amid Nasdaq decline could represent peak FOMO for AI trade, similar to classic market tops marked by legendary investor entry.
Jul 26, 04:16 AMRead on Substack →

The Ideological Rape of New York City

PRIORITY
Eve Barlow from Blacklisted
  • ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu championed by figures including Amal Clooney and Sadiq Khan, despite issuing prosecutor's documented sexual misconduct findings.
  • Critics argue progressive leaders defend ICC process while overlooking prosecutorial credibility issues and the legitimacy of Israel's security operations.
  • Pattern of antizionism reflected in NYC governance and street violence targeting Jewish citizens, according to author's analysis.
Jul 25, 03:25 PMRead on Substack →

Ferg’s Finds

PRIORITY
Ferg from Trader Ferg
  • The AI boom is being priced as a technology cycle when its actual mechanics resemble a credit-driven real estate cycle with 2008-like structural risks.
  • AI infrastructure—data centers, entitled land, debt financing, and take-or-pay leases—exhibits properties of real estate development rather than software businesses.
  • Real estate cycles typically break when demand growth decelerates against fixed supply built during the boom, not when demand collapses entirely.
Jul 25, 11:51 AMRead on Substack →

Markets · 11

AI’s $700 Billion Question

Andrew Sarna
  • Alphabet's capex guidance increased to $205B for 2026, raising concerns about ROI absorption capacity as combined Big Tech capex could exceed $725B annually.
  • For the first time, Alphabet posted negative quarterly free cash flow despite revenue beats, reflecting investor concern over AI spending payoff timelines.
  • Companies beating earnings are not being rewarded with stock appreciation—a rare occurrence marking investor skepticism on tech valuations and capital efficiency.
Jul 27, 05:36 AMRead on Substack →

The Bar Is High

AP Research
  • Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6% amid concerns over AI capex sustainability and weakening valuations for hyperscaler mega-caps.
  • Hedge funds sold US tech at record pace over 8 weeks; SOX index tracking worst month since June 2022 as sentiment deteriorates.
  • Alphabet's negative FCF and guidance hikes signal market shift: tolerance for AI spending without near-term profitability proof is narrowing sharply.
Jul 27, 02:31 AMRead on Substack →

[Chart] The Big Bad Bond Bear

Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
  • Bonds in 6-year bear market with long-term treasuries down 50% from peak; even 20-year holders see flat-to-negative returns after inflation.
  • Bonds are unloved (bearish consensus), undervalued (cheap indicators), and underallocated (allocations at 25-year lows)—a major contrarian setup.
  • This represents one of the largest potential reversal opportunities across asset classes despite macro headwinds still pending.
Jul 27, 02:06 AMRead on Substack →

Mythic Atlas Report: Issue 04

Mythic Market Research from Mythic’s Substack
  • Markets are in Stage 4 Constructive with full allocation and price above the ten-month line, with risk-on positioning at 60% diffusion outside the U.S.
  • Month-end economic data releases (personal income, outlays, and U-Mich sentiment) will occur in the final 30 hours of the month and could significantly refresh the Consumer block indicator.
  • The Consumer panel is the weakest block at 33% positive and closest to flipping, with potential to provide a domestic-demand floor to the current model.
Jul 26, 11:54 PMRead on Substack →

SOMETIMES THE FORWARD-DISCOUNTING MACHINES DOESN'T CARE ABOUT YOUR EPS CHART

PAID
Kevin Muir from The MacroTourist
  • Stock markets are forward-discounting mechanisms that do not simply follow earnings; rising EPS does not guarantee rising stock prices.
  • Historical precedent shows that stocks can decline sharply even as NTM (Next Twelve Months) EPS continues rising, as occurred in early 2022 when stocks fell 24.5% despite rising earnings.
  • Market participants often overlook that earnings growth is already priced in, and shifts in market sentiment or discount rates can cause decoupling between earnings and stock performance.
Jul 26, 09:21 PMRead on Substack →

The Cash Machine

Nick Nemeth from Mispriced Assets
  • Mark Walter's Guggenheim Baseball Management uses complex corporate structures to funnel $587M of annuity customer money into the Dodgers' media company as supposedly arm's-length loans.
  • Retirement savings from Ohio and Indiana residents, sold on safety promises, are lodged in Delaware Life and Clear Spring Life insurance companies controlled by Walter, then loaned to his own sports network.
  • The arrangement obscures the connection between the lender (owner's insurance company) and borrower (owner's baseball network) by filing them as unaffiliated third-party transactions.
Jul 26, 05:21 PMRead on Substack →

SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Cost of Not Beginning

Cape Fear Advisors
  • SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at $135/share valued the company at $1.79 trillion, but stock fell to $115.07 by late July, raising questions about post-offering fundamentals.
  • Post-offering filings include a stock-settled Cursor acquisition and refinancing, but no major repricing events or positive catalysts justify the original valuation.
  • The analysis tracks whether new corporate actions and filings align with the initial IPO thesis rather than predicting near-term price movements.
Jul 26, 01:58 PMRead on Substack →

The Week Ahead 7/26/26

Eliant
  • Week saw momentum factor rebound early but geopolitical tensions over Middle East pushed oil higher and 10Y yields to 4.7%.
  • Nasdaq declined 160bps after 200bps early-week gain, while Dow held up better due to energy strength; S&P fell 0.6% and Dow dropped 0.4%.
  • FOMC decision expected to hold steady Wednesday, though oil spike raises speculation of a rate hike; PCE inflation data follows Thursday.
Jul 26, 09:02 AMRead on Substack →

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 July 2026

Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
  • Mag-7 and S&P 493 have peaked with technical risk of lower highs and lower lows forming a downtrend if key support levels break.
  • Market sentiment shifted distinctly negative this week amid geopolitical tensions, rising rates, and AI/capex concerns despite expensive valuations and low cash.
  • Retail trading behavior and seasonal patterns suggest potential market turbulence ahead with multiple technical warning signals across cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices.
Jul 26, 04:10 AMRead on Substack →

What Google Didn't Say, and on Its Record Isn't Likely To

Cape Fear Advisors
  • Alphabet reported record $112.2B quarterly profit, but $99B derived from unrealized gains on equity holdings rather than cash operations.
  • Free cash flow was negative $5.9B despite record earnings, with capex ($44.9B) exceeding operating cash flow ($39.1B) and full-year budget raised to $195-205B.
  • Reported profit significantly overstates actual economic cash generation and operational performance due to mark-to-market accounting.
Jul 25, 01:37 PMRead on Substack →

Big Short Charts...

Garrett Baldwin
  • Markets are in negative momentum, requiring disciplined adherence to risk management rules to avoid catastrophic losses.
  • Wall Street's perverse incentive structures—where profit is decoupled from risk outcomes—remain unchanged since the 2008 financial crisis.
  • UBS's recent proposal to repackage low-quality assets demonstrates the financial industry's enduring appetite for regulatory arbitrage and opacity.
Jul 25, 10:46 AMRead on Substack →

Macro · 11

AI Emigrates to Shanghai But Isn't Taking Your Job After All

Jeremy McKeown from Hypernormal Times & In The Company of Mavericks
  • US-Iran tensions briefly eased over weekend; Brent crude fell 7% below $90 as market sold fear trade and Treasuries rallied.
  • Houthi attacks on Saudi ports and fresh mining claims suggest ceasefire may lack regional buy-in, leaving geopolitical risk unresolved.
  • Fed faces awkward Wednesday meeting after oil spike inflation narrative reversed; rate hike expectations pulled back amid peace signals.
Jul 27, 01:42 AMRead on Substack →

Weekly Macro Note: FOMC Week, Asia Bounce?, Takes Two to TACO, Crude Roadmap, & More

MacroEdge Research
  • FOMC week is critical with the new Fed chair Warsh's policy direction determining market direction; sideways ranges expected until guidance clarity emerges.
  • Middle East tensions (Houthi refinery attacks and strait traffic) are influencing near-term market volatility and energy considerations.
  • The second half of the year presents a binary outcome: either a final rally before the Fed hikes due to inflation, or continued sideways intervention through midterms with risk of the AI/data center/momentum trade losing steam.
Jul 26, 08:58 PMRead on Substack →

Walk in the Pines #407

PAID
Pinecone Weekly Brief
  • Weekly digest includes curated charts and a stoic Marcus Aurelius quote on gratitude and avoiding overvaluation of possessions.
  • Notable reads feature Financial Times analysis on 'financial candyfloss' and the return of monetarism in policy discussions.
  • Curated podcast recommendations include Founders, Monetary Matters with Russell Clark, and Macro Hive discussions on monetary policy trends.
Jul 26, 06:14 PMRead on Substack →

The Funeral

Macro Musings by Danny D
  • Central banks (Fed, BOE, BOJ) face 'funeral' of dovish era and must decide whether to hike rates preemptively or risk bond and currency market punishment.
  • Iran used prior ceasefire to sell oil and rebuild missiles; low U.S. interceptor stocks may embolden further demands and threaten comprehensive deal durability.
  • Key data this week includes durable goods, CPI, PCE, GDP, and employment; month-end trading combined with geopolitical risk creates heightened volatility environment.
Jul 26, 10:49 AMRead on Substack →

The Ancient 8.

Damped Spring 101
  • Investors should evaluate three key dimensions: growth, inflation, and relative value of fiat cash versus assets.
  • Asset prices reflect consensus expectations about future monetary and fiscal conditions; opportunities arise from divergences between expectations and outcomes.
  • A diversified portfolio of assets is highly likely to outperform cash over the long term due to the risk premium demanded by savers.
Jul 26, 09:25 AMRead on Substack →

A Macro Pilgrim's Ledger | July 26, 2026

Santiago Capital Research
  • Oil war pushed Brent above $100 for the first time since spring on escalating Middle East tensions, with WTI climbing 11% to ~$90.
  • Nasdaq fell 2.1% as Tesla and Alphabet were punished post-earnings; S&P 500 slipped 0.6% while Dow held best, down just 0.4% on energy strength.
  • Bond market began bracing for Fed rate hikes rather than cuts for the first time in months amid crude rally and revised AI spending outlook.
Jul 26, 08:08 AMRead on Substack →

The Week That Was, The Week that Is: Growth Holds On, Pricing Pressure Remains

Global Macro Method
  • Weekly market decline reflected valuation reset rather than recession signal, with US employment, high-yield credit, and broader economy remaining resilient.
  • Damage concentrated in duration-sensitive assets (megacap tech, long-duration credit) as rising real yields forced cost-of-capital repricing amid resilient activity and oil shock.
  • Coming week's Fed meeting, GDP/inflation data, S&P 500 earnings, and BoE/BoJ decisions will determine if this was temporary correction or start of something more consequential.
Jul 26, 04:58 AMRead on Substack →

The Future Costs of Current Suppression

Michael Howell from Capital Wars
  • Late investment cycle signals are accumulating including flattening yield curves, strong commodities, and positive economic surprises alongside weakening global liquidity.
  • US Treasury 10-year yields are breaking out driven by rising rate expectations while term premia remain flat, signaling investor demand for safety.
  • Several central banks appear to be curtailing liquidity impulses, contributing to weakness in liquidity-sensitive assets including cryptocurrencies.
Jul 26, 03:11 AMRead on Substack →

Redeye Macro Note: A Look at a Closed Hormuz & the Bab, Saturday TACOs - Will it Continue?

MacroEdge Research
  • Strait of Hormuz and Bab strait closures are affecting global oil supplies and contributing to consumer economic harm in developed economies.
  • Oil prices returning to levels that threaten the political viability of current US administration ahead of midterm elections, potentially creating policy pressure.
  • Technical analysis suggests current oil price pause may be short-lived given ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
Jul 26, 12:38 AMRead on Substack →

Weekly Intelligence Brief: A System Running Out of Slack

Capital Flows
  • Weekly Intelligence Brief synthesizes structural economic changes across major economies rather than short-term price movements.
  • Focus on underlying causes and mechanisms driving macro outcomes, with implications for economic evolution.
Jul 25, 03:19 PMRead on Substack →

The Bosphorus Bid

The Blind Squirrel
  • Turkey's emergence as a high-growth emerging market in the 1990s attracted international investment banking interest and business travel from major global institutions.
  • The country's geographic and cultural position as a bridge between Europe and Asia created both appeal and complexity for dealmaking and institutional building.
  • Investment banking operations in emerging markets during the pre-digital era operated with distinct operational challenges and informational constraints compared to developed markets.
Jul 25, 07:03 AMRead on Substack →

Politics · 11

Jihadism Arrives In Berlin

John Aziz
  • An Islamist jihadist attacked Berlin's Pride celebrations with a van, killing one and injuring many; German Interior Minister identified it as terrorism.
  • The author critiques media avoidance of naming the ideology behind the attack, noting outlets describe it as 'hate' or 'extremism' while obscuring the jihadist motivation.
  • Islamist attacks across non-Muslim countries follow a strategic pattern: use fear to provoke populations toward religious conversion and territorial conquest.
Jul 26, 03:46 PMRead on Substack →

There is nothing surprising about the Berlin pride attack

Jonathan Sacerdoti
  • Berlin Pride attack suspect is identified as a known Islamist, consistent with years of vehicle-ramming tactics used by Islamic extremists.
  • Islamist terrorism has long targeted symbols of Western values including LGBTQ+ events, freedom of expression, and cultural celebration.
  • Author criticizes mainstream media for being 'surprised' by the attack despite the well-documented pattern of Islamist targeting of pride events and Western values.
Jul 26, 12:21 PMRead on Substack →

Collapse of the Blood Libels

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • Author argues that major allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza—including Lancet studies, AirWars reports, and NGO conclusions—are fraudulent and built on changed definitions.
  • Mainstream media outlets failed to report on the collapse of the 'great indictment of Israel' despite years of coverage promoting allegations as settled fact.
  • Claims that South Africa and Iran weaponized the genocide convention, undermining its credibility for addressing actual future genocides.
Jul 26, 12:08 PMRead on Substack →

How Chicago stops voters from deciding what matters

Austin Berg | The Last Ward
  • Chicago City Council finalized six non-binding referendum questions for voters, which are essentially poll questions with no legal force.
  • Mayor Brandon Johnson's preferred millionaires tax question failed to make the ballot, contrasting with NYC's binding charter reform propositions.
  • Chicago's non-binding referendums limit voter decision-making power compared to New York's binding structural governance changes.
Jul 26, 09:15 AMRead on Substack →

Did Ukraine Make the Biggest Nuclear Mistake in History?

PAID
Prof Robert Pape
  • Ukraine's 1990s decision to surrender its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances is now being questioned as states worldwide reassess nuclear proliferation strategies.
  • Global leaders in Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Poland, and Taiwan are learning from Ukraine's experience and reconsidering whether nuclear capabilities are prudent.
  • Ukraine's strategic outcome may accelerate nuclear proliferation and make preventive wars more attractive to states seeking to avoid nuclear-armed adversaries.
Jul 26, 07:01 AMRead on Substack →

China Weekly Wrap: The Carrot and the Stick Edition

Panda Perspectives
  • China's new offshore trust taxation guidance with 90-day amnesty represents enforcement of capital repatriation while offering a carrot-and-stick approach to wealth management.
  • Beijing is leveraging strong trade surplus and recent market gains to incentivize domestic capital to stop fleeing to offshore tax havens.
  • The policy signals a shift in how the government manages national savings and reflects broader rebalancing priorities away from offshore wealth concentration.
Jul 26, 03:22 AMRead on Substack →

Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

The Brawl Street Journal
  • China uses strategic stakes in European companies like Pirelli to create asymmetric payoff structures through dividends, board influence, and technology insights while benefiting Chinese competitors.
  • Multi-dimensional geopolitical positioning allows China to win through different channels regardless of direct market outcomes, creating 'heads I win, tails you lose' scenarios.
  • European governments like Italy are attempting to counter Chinese influence through mechanisms like expanded 'golden power' laws to limit control and board representation.
Jul 26, 01:30 AMRead on Substack →

Iran’s Alliance With Russia Is Pulling It Into More Wars

John Aziz
  • Iran's deepening military alliance with Russia in Ukraine creates unavoidable blowback, including Ukrainian attacks on Iranian vessels transporting military cargo.
  • Iran cannot expect to maintain strategic cooperation with Russia in war while remaining insulated from conflict spillover and Western counter-operations.
  • The alliance reflects Iran's ideological commitment to anti-Western positioning but exposes fundamental limitations of multipolar world strategy when allies face active conflict.
Jul 25, 05:41 PMRead on Substack →

Mamdani Made an Empty Promise to Arrest Netanyahu. And Revealed the Problem with the Free Palestine Fervor.

Kaizen Asiedu
  • Mamdani's promised arrest of Netanyahu lacks legal authority, exposing inconsistency in local politicians making unenforceable international policy commitments.
  • Palestinian causes have become an ideological purity test that supersedes domestic policy focus, even at protests unrelated to international affairs.
  • Single foreign conflicts increasingly dominate political discourse and flag symbolism across disparate American protests and events.
Jul 25, 03:26 PMRead on Substack →

Iran has Trump exactly where it wants him

Andrew Fox from Fox On War
  • Iran frames US-Iran negotiations as survival and revolutionary prestige rather than transactional deals, resisting concessions that appear weakening.
  • June memorandum offering oil waivers, frozen asset unfreezing, and $300B+ reconstruction was revoked after Iranian attacks on shipping, narrowing diplomatic runway.
  • Trump's pause in bombing for diplomacy presents negotiating trap where Tehran can absorb further strikes rather than accept settlement appearing disadvantageous.
Jul 25, 03:09 PMRead on Substack →

Confronting Brutality Requires Brutal Honesty

Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly named left-wing extremism as a major blind spot in Western counterterrorism strategy, comparable to organized Islamic terrorism.
  • Left-wing extremists operate through international networks of finance and communication, targeting individuals and institutions that represent Western values.
  • Western governments and media have historically downplayed left-wing violence as aberrational rather than recognizing it as a systemic threat to Western civilization.
Jul 25, 11:59 AMRead on Substack →

Culture · 8

The Most Important Trainer You've Never Heard Of

Ed Conway
  • An obscure Nike shoe that few people have heard of is arguably the most important shoe in history due to its role in Nike's survival and dominance.
  • The shoe's story connects to broader themes of Western deindustrialization and the collapse of the American rust belt.
  • The narrative reveals how a single product's significance transcends the company that made it, touching on the fundamental nature of the modern world.
Jul 27, 12:40 AMRead on Substack →

The Week That Matters (20-24 July, 2026)

Mateen Chaudhry from Mateen's Newsletter - Discuss The Tape
  • Kevin Keegan's death represents the loss of a particular kind of Britain embodied in his rise from humble beginnings to European football success.
  • Keegan's philosophy centered on belief, encouragement, and resilience—addressing setbacks with inspiration rather than criticism, shaping his legendary management approach.
  • His legacy transcends sports achievement, reflecting broader admiration for authenticity, hard work, and embracing challenge as part of the journey to success.
Jul 26, 04:18 PMRead on Substack →

My Favorite Song...

Garrett Baldwin
  • Author reflects on using repetitive music listening as a writing tool, inspired by Hunter Thompson's work habits shared by a college professor.
  • Personal anecdote about celebrating the completion of a book in 2008 emphasizes the importance of acknowledging accomplishments rather than overlooking them.
  • Upcoming article titled 'The Bailout' represents work the author is proud of and motivated by a philosophy of making your own fun.
Jul 26, 01:06 PMRead on Substack →

Ricotta Stuffed Shells: a recipe

Notorious Foodie
  • Recipe for ricotta stuffed shells features a spicy n'duja vodka sauce as the standout component paired with creamy lemon-spinach filling.
  • Dish balances rich, spicy sauce with fresh filling and spinach-lemon elements to prevent heaviness.
  • N'duja cured pork requires proper fat drainage and large, rough-textured pasta shells for optimal texture and flavor absorption.
Jul 26, 12:00 PMRead on Substack →

Peach Dump Cake

Primal Gourmet
  • Five-ingredient Peach Dump Cake requires minimal prep (5 minutes) and unfussy baking, making it ideal for summer entertaining.
  • Traeger wood-fired kiss enhances the dessert, though conventional oven works; maintaining 375°F is critical for proper cake crust and peach filling texture.
  • Recipe balances sweet, jammy peaches with crispy buttery cake topping and is best served with vanilla ice cream.
Jul 26, 10:02 AMRead on Substack →

12 foods that beat the 3pm crash

Parent Fit Club
  • The 3pm energy crash is often misattributed to missing nutrients when diet structure and meal composition are the real drivers.
  • A simple plate-based rule (four-second assessment requiring no app) proves more effective than purchasing supplements.
  • Behavioral habits around sleep and social media at night undermine supplement effectiveness and feed into costly supplement consumption patterns.
Jul 26, 03:50 AMRead on Substack →

“My husband had wrangled the cat into his crate before the firefighters chopped their way up to our floor”

The Substack Post
  • A personal essay explores how comfort food becomes a coping mechanism for processing trauma and loss after a catastrophic home fire.
  • The narrative captures the disorientation and displacement of suddenly losing one's home and the small grounding moments of family support.
  • Food consumption patterns reflect emotional states and serve as an unspoken language of grief and survival in the aftermath of disaster.
Jul 25, 08:03 AMRead on Substack →

Orange Kiss-Me Cake

Chris Kimball's Substack
  • The 1950 Pillsbury Bake-Off winner, Orange Kiss-Me Cake, exemplifies mid-century American baking innovation and reflects cultural trends of its era.
  • The original recipe's use of a whole orange and multiple nut varieties showcases ingredient-forward design adapted for modern food processor efficiency.
  • Bake-Off winners serve as historical records of American tastes, available ingredients, and culinary values across multiple decades.
Jul 25, 07:02 AMRead on Substack →

Trading · 6

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Risk-off mood from Black Sea developments is weighing on commodities and agriculture markets.
  • Precipitation improved slightly over the weekend but ongoing dryness and near-record heat will continue to drive powerful storm activity affecting crop conditions.
  • Spec selling patterns are concentrated between 4:00-6:00 AM Chicago time before rebounds, with early Monday trading to be ignored in favor of identifying the true selling pressure window.
Jul 26, 07:41 PMRead on Substack →

Stuck in Between

Izzy from Ms Izzy Trades
  • S&P 500 futures remain range-bound between 7350 and 7640, with week's focus on reclaiming core levels at 7571-7578-7581.
  • Oil positioning and crude hedging provided strong performance this week as indices weakened, with headline news supporting crude's steady climb.
  • Month-end positioning and channel consolidation at 7438-7444-7448 suggest market indecision, with directional bias dependent on opening levels.
Jul 26, 04:57 PMRead on Substack →

The Signals You Miss Before You React

Sara
  • Behavioral signals—restlessness, narrowed attention, increased breathing—occur in the body minutes before conscious decision to trade, creating a gap between physical reaction and mental understanding.
  • Post-hoc self-awareness is easier than real-time recognition; interoception (sensing internal states) bridges the gap between bodily signals and conscious decision-making.
  • Trading recordings reveal physical tells like breathing changes and postural shifts before impulsive trades, offering a mechanism to interrupt automatic patterns.
Jul 26, 09:08 AMRead on Substack →

Buying This Fast Growing Small-Cap Company With 2x Potential!

Capitalist-Letters
  • Small-cap stocks offer competitive advantage against large institutional players who focus on mega-cap opportunities.
  • The best opportunities in large caps occur during market crashes when solid fundamentals are overlooked; small caps are easier to profit from in normal markets.
  • Joel Greenblatt's concept of finding your competitive edge applies to investing—you must fish in a pond where you have an advantage over institutional competition.
Jul 26, 08:33 AMRead on Substack →

Market Analysis for the Week of 7/26

PharmD_KS from PharmD Capital Trading with PharmD_KS
  • NQ broke below June lows on continuous contracts, setting up critical trading week heading into August with major support breakdown.
  • Early-week relief rally proved more bullish setup than immediate downside, with shorts targeted below 29400 level from above.
  • Nano 100 decline and semiconductor weakness present largest trade opportunity of quarter after establishing key support breakdown.
Jul 25, 01:43 PMRead on Substack →

🐍 Build your own volatility targeting portfolio

Jason from PyQuant News
  • Equal-weighted portfolios ignore that different stocks carry different risk levels, causing volatile assets to dominate portfolio behavior and outcomes.
  • Volatility targeting aligns portfolio allocations with actual risk contributions, ensuring each position drives returns proportionally rather than one dominating the portfolio.
  • Data infrastructure and aggregation are the primary barrier for retail traders attempting algorithmic portfolio construction, before strategy logic even enters.
Jul 25, 07:30 AMRead on Substack →

Energy · 6

💬 New thread from Nico

Nico from AiQ
  • Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and commercial vessels have caught U.S. intelligence by surprise repeatedly since February, disrupting energy markets.
  • Insurers are withdrawing coverage and carriers are turning back, including Chinese vessels, making maritime transport through war zones unmanageable for most operators.
  • Saudi production declines and geopolitical escalation between Russia/Ukraine are tightening oil supplies while equities consolidate between technical levels.
Jul 26, 05:05 PMRead on Substack →

Episode 6: Escape, Not Trade

The Commodity Compass
  • The Iran Strait MoU employed constructive ambiguity, allowing both sides to claim victory while assigning Iran responsibility for safe passage and administration.
  • The agreement created a 19-day commercial escape hatch via the Omani shipping lane before it suddenly closed, exposing the fragility of the arrangement.
  • Iran's dual interests—sanctions relief through commercial trade and maintaining strategic control of the Strait—created inherent contradictions in the MoU language.
Jul 26, 02:35 PMRead on Substack →

Demand Push

PAID
Doomberg
  • US shale gas production has doubled in 15+ years despite persistently low prices, suggesting substantial remaining upside potential if economics improve.
  • Energy pessimists continuously move goalposts on supply cliff predictions as the industry repeatedly exceeds expectations for production growth.
  • Recent analysis from Chronometer Partners raises skepticism about demand-side constraints on future gas production growth.
Jul 26, 04:02 AMRead on Substack →

The Net Zero Machine Laid Bare

David Turver from Eigen Values
  • The UK has constructed an integrated multi-institutional net zero governance system connecting climate, environmental, and spatial policies as a unified enforcement machine.
  • Carbon budgets, environmental acts, farming roadmaps, and strategic spatial planning create a comprehensive sectoral division of emissions reduction burden.
  • The system operates through sequential connections across multiple institutions rather than a single law or office, making it a permanent structural framework.
Jul 25, 11:59 PMRead on Substack →

The WTK Report: Episode 35 - Energy Prices, Bond Yields, CPI, & The Fed Is Not Going To Raise Rates

TKTheContrarian
  • Bond yields peaked in May 2026 and have since declined before recent rally, tracking oil price movements.
  • Oil and long-end Treasury yields are moving in tandem, signaling correlated market dynamics.
  • Inflation-adjusted oil would trade around $160 today if averaging the $100 level seen during 2008-2014 period.
Jul 25, 03:36 PMRead on Substack →

Sleeping on Soybeans

Nico from AiQ
  • Soybean prices oscillate between bearish and bullish signals as China's demand remains weak and farmers respond to price levels around $12.
  • Yield forecasting accuracy is declining as historical reliance on USDA reports and government data gives way to more complex, real-time market dynamics.
  • Global weather risks, tariff protectionism, and Black Sea geopolitics are creating significant volatility in commodity markets that traders must navigate carefully.
Jul 25, 12:16 PMRead on Substack →

Other · 4

Beyond Calories and Leptin: How Your Skeleton Regulates Fat

Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
  • Researchers discovered a 'gravitostat' system in bone cells that independently regulates body weight separate from leptin signaling.
  • Weighted capsules implanted in rodents triggered fat loss until total weight returned to a set point, demonstrating weight-sensing bone cells as a regulatory mechanism.
  • This mechanism explains weight regulation phenomena that leptin alone cannot account for, opening new understanding of metabolic homeostasis.
Jul 27, 06:03 AMRead on Substack →

Insider Newsletter: Issue #333

Capitalist Exploits (Substack)
  • Maverick contributor Lee Ann discusses UAE updates on the CIMavericks podcast with insights on geopolitical stability.
  • Issue covers themes including macroeconomic math divergence, restocking strategies, EU regulatory developments, and value investing profit-taking implications.
  • Content emphasizes long-term perspective and critical thinking on global trends affecting investments and policy.
Jul 26, 08:08 AMRead on Substack →

Six-Chart Sunday – Shooting the Moon: What the New Chinese AI Model Means for Policy & Markets

Bruce Mehlman - Age of Disruption
Jul 26, 05:01 AMRead on Substack →

AI · 4

The Metabolism of Artificial Intelligence

Craig Tindale
  • The competitive advantage in AI comes from cadence—the speed of converting computational resources into intelligence—rather than raw capacity or megawatts.
  • Frontier datacenters operate like living organisms with hardware flowing through the building on rapid 12-month depreciation cycles, treating chips as consumable inputs rather than capital assets.
  • Hardware refresh cycles cannot be stolen or leaked like methods, making them the durable and unique advantage in an existential race for AI dominance.
Jul 26, 11:30 PMRead on Substack →

Ramp’s free LLM Router isn’t the product 🤖📊; FinTech funding topped $29B in H1 2026, but most founders got left …

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Ramp's free LLM Router is positioned as a strategic product, not merely a free giveaway, supporting the company's broader AI infrastructure ambitions.
  • FinTech funding reached $29B in H1 2026, but most founders were excluded from capital allocation, signaling concentration among top-tier startups.
  • Moonshot's Kimi K3 model ranks #1 for frontend coding and AI agents at one-third Claude's price, disrupting cost dynamics in the LLM market.
Jul 26, 02:29 PMRead on Substack →

Jensen makes the case for open source AI

Khe Hy
  • Jensen Huang and 50 AI companies signed a pro-open source letter supporting open weights in AI development.
  • Cerebras explains how to build enterprise knowledge bases by connecting company data sources like Slack, drives, and GitHub.
  • Advanced AI models like Opus and Fable require less manual customization, necessitating simplified skill requirements for users.
Jul 26, 09:45 AMRead on Substack →

UK as Geopolitical Jim Cramer, Locking Profits, and More Floating Steel

PAID
Mihail from TheOldEconomy
  • Chinese AI model Moonshot's Kimi-K3 combines near-frontier performance, dramatically lower prices, and open-weight accessibility—a rare combination that alarms Western policymakers.
  • Similar to DeepSeek's January 2025 R1 release, Kimi-K3 triggered investor frenzy and government demands for action in Washington.
  • Release represents significant competitive challenge from Chinese AI developers and raises questions about US AI policy and market dominance.
Jul 26, 05:30 AMRead on Substack →

Tech · 2

Stripe is paying $10 billion for OpenRouter’s 5.5% fee, not its LLM routing 🤖💸; Revolut is officially worth $115…

Linas from Linas's Newsletter
  • Stripe's $10B bid for OpenRouter is primarily about acquiring its 5.5% take rate on LLM routing, not the routing technology itself.
  • Revolut reaches $115B valuation, becoming Europe's 8th most valuable bank, with AI model development as a key growth driver.
  • Strategic fintech M&A is increasingly tied to AI infrastructure control and take rates rather than standalone technology assets.
Jul 27, 04:59 AMRead on Substack →

Executive Briefing: Gumroad Let a Customer Approve Its Code. Here's Where Your Agent Should Stop

Nate from Nate’s Substack
  • Author closed 51 of 52 support tickets but discovered 39 were duplicate Slack-access issues, revealing inefficiency in addressing root causes.
  • AI agents should focus on support as a first use case because it's concrete, measurable, and directly signals problems—prompting investigation of systemic issues rather than just faster workarounds.
  • The gap between customer expectation and delivery is where support problems live; agents should help identify broken processes, not just patch them repeatedly.
Jul 26, 10:01 AMRead on Substack →