★ Priority · 15
Death by Telehealth. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A 26-year-old dental student died in an ICU where no physician examined him at bedside during his four-hour stay before cardiac arrest.
- The rise of tele-ICU programs allows critically ill patients to be monitored remotely by physicians working from command centers hundreds of miles away.
- The case raises critical questions about the consequences of remote critical care and the adequacy of physician oversight in life-or-death situations.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- KOSPI bounced on schedule after testing key support; ASML popped higher but the move was faded, signaling good news being sold.
- CPI declined for the first time in six years, causing implied July hike probability to collapse from 50% to nearly zero.
- US 2-year yield fell significantly following the softer CPI data, reflecting changed expectations for near-term monetary policy.
💬 New thread from PauloMacro
PRIORITYPauloMacro’s Substack
- Reports of US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (water, power, wheat silos) and military barracks suggest escalation beyond tit-for-tat responses.
- Geopolitical tension unlikely to be fully priced into markets despite significant implications for energy and inflation.
- Author expects conflict to persist for at least 60 days, complicating near-term macro outlook.
Why the Left Hates the Medicine That Made Me a Mom
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Restorative reproductive medicine, pioneered by Catholic surgeons as an IVF alternative, successfully helped one woman conceive despite mainstream medical skepticism.
- Left-leaning outlets often mischaracterize this treatment as conservative quackery rather than a viable medical option.
- Politicizing reproductive medicine could deter women from seeking treatments that could improve their fertility outcomes.
Slutmaxxing
PRIORITYEve Barlow from Blacklisted
- A Gen Z influencer known for extreme appearance modifications and misogynistic content was sponsored to visit Israel.
- The influencer's brand combines appearance-focused content with degradation of women, positioning him as an Andrew Tate-style figure for younger audiences.
- His association with anti-Semitic figures and extremist content raises concerns about normalization of such ideologies among young people.
MEMORY AND WAFER UPDATE
PRIORITYRussell Clark from Capital Flows and Asset Markets
- Memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) are whipsawed by leveraged ETFs despite DRAM prices continuing to soar.
- Wafer makers benefit from memory producers needing expanded production capacity and wafer supply, reversing industry oversupply.
- GlobalWafers rallied 300% since April; Siltronics and Sumco now trade at significant discount to GlobalWafers on EV/sales metrics.
I Have Started Buying Protection
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- Market indices near highs while individual stocks and factors experience sharp corrections, masking underlying volatility through offsetting daily moves.
- Implied correlation at historic lows suggests options market is pricing continued diversification benefits that may not hold if correlations rise.
- Author has begun buying portfolio protection anticipating a 5-10% drawdown risk from summer liquidity, high leverage, and systematic sellers triggering cascading declines.
Time for Japan to adopt a Strong Yen policy
PRIORITYMark Farrington from Dollar Watchtower
- The US established a strong dollar policy in the 1990s to address trade imbalances, using the currency as a strategic tool alongside trade measures.
- Japan should consider adopting a similar strong yen policy to address its own economic imbalances and trade concerns.
- Currency policy became an extension of broader trade and economic strategy during periods of protectionist pressure.
"Aya-Toll" vs "Trump-Toll"
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Trump and Iran restarted hostilities during the World Cup, with geopolitical tensions disrupting normal trading rhythms.
- Trump's proposed 20% toll on Hormuz shipping versus Iran's 1% counter-offer creates potential arbitrage if ships route through Iranian-controlled waters.
- The humor (and non-zero probability) lies in ships choosing the cheaper 'Aya-Toll' over the 'Trump-Toll' if hostilities solidify these economic incentives.
Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Back. Plus. . .
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- Trump reinstated a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz with a proposed 20% toll on transiting cargo.
- US conducted multiple strikes on Iranian forces and a White House letter confirmed resumption of hostilities as of July 7.
- UAE reported Iranian strikes on two of its tankers amid escalating regional tensions.
💬 New thread from Macro Charts
PRIORITYMacro Charts
- KOSPI formed a hammer at tactical support with potential bounce setup; SK Hynix and Samsung showing divergent signals in semiconductor sector.
- SOX and memory chip stocks testing the 50-day moving average; historical 1995/1997/2000 playbook suggests 1-2 bounces may follow.
- Earnings season starting with opportunities to monitor secondary tops in chip stocks over coming days.
My Grandfather, the Secret War Hero
PRIORITYThe Free Press
- A man's 1997 pilgrimage to Prague to find his estranged father's grave failed initially, but a chance encounter a year later reunited him with his father's family.
- The author's grandfather Milan Janota was trapped in Czechoslovakia after the 1948 Communist takeover and could not emigrate to join his family.
- A cemetery caretaker's business card led to an unexpected connection that bridged decades of family separation.
💬 New thread from Le Shrub
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- SOXX index declined 3% today with semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix down 16%, reflecting broader weakness in the tech sector.
- Brent crude rose 3% amid geopolitical tensions, with Trump proposing to seize the Strait of Hormuz.
- Meme bottoms and meme tops represent significant technical turning points despite their humorous naming convention.
A Violent Market Pretending to Be Calm
PRIORITYLord Fed from Lord Fed's Gazette
- SPX approaching 7,700 target with 125 handles remaining after rising from 7,350 two weeks ago.
- Underlying market momentum showing significant stress despite index strength, with Mag7 down 15% and SOX normalizing from extreme overbought levels.
- Key question is what happens post-7,700 as many momentum factors have fallen over 20 percentage points while headline index marches higher.
The Meme-rithmic Scale™
PRIORITYLe Shrub from Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
- Introduced 'Meme-rithmic Scale' framework tracking meme bottoms and tops across assets including BABA, crude, SOXX, and NASDAQ.
- BABA triggered 'Burry-Wood Meme Bottom' at $93 (now $113) when both Michael Burry and Cathie Wood sold simultaneously; crude triggered 'Economist Meme Bottom' at $72 Brent.
- SOXX meme top at $600 level considered key indicator for risk-off/rotation, NASDAQ 'Buffett Meme Top' based on his activity.
Markets · 18
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly higher on ASML earnings and PayPal bid strength, driving tech rally; European markets flat with mixed regional performance.
- Asian markets mixed with Japan up 93bp and China down 30bp; international themes include Warsh breathing room and shrinking options to end geopolitical conflict.
- Scheduled economic data includes PPI, Empire State PMI at 8:30am and Beige Book at 2pm.
Short Thoughts July 15, 2026 PYPL/IBM/HCA/More
Michael Burry
- Stripe and Advent's $60.50/share bid for PayPal is too low and lacks a meaningful control premium; intrinsic value by Michael Burry's methodology suggests a winning bid around $100.
- IBM stock fell 26% to $213 in intraday trading on July 14th, marking the largest decline since at least 1968, representing a major reversal from its $312 level just days prior.
- PayPal is trading well below intrinsic value and represents one of the cheapest quality businesses available, suggesting the opening bid will need to rise significantly.
Let's Look At What You Could Have Won!
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- US inflation decline and avoided rate hike sparked broad equity rally and currency/commodity repricing in line with historical patterns.
- Oil prices diverged from other assets, climbing 1% despite disinflationary headlines due to geopolitical supply concerns.
- South Korea's Kospi surged 8.2%, reclaiming best-performing major benchmark status amid tech-led rally.
𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚖𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚗𝚜𝚏𝚘𝚛𝚖𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗.
Hugh Hendry
- IBM's $60B market value loss reflects uncertainty about the company's transformation rather than new fundamental information.
- Halfway through genuine corporate transformations, reinvention and deterioration are visually indistinguishable, making markets prone to hysteria.
- Major market moves typically occur mid-cycle when old explanations have failed but new narratives haven't yet justified themselves.
Don't Let the AI Trade Distract you from Opportunity in the Land of the Rising Sun
Grizzle Research and Quant
- AI trade wealth has largely redistributed to North Asia through semiconductor picks-and-shovels plays, tripling Korea and Taiwan market caps to $9.3tn.
- Hyperscaler stocks (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) down 13-31% from 2024 highs amid growing investor concerns about AI monetization.
- Earnings season will be critical test for whether AI capex spending translates to actual returns for investors.
NVIDIA, The Fourth House
Cape Fear Advisors
- NVIDIA collected $81.6B in Q-revenue at 75% gross margin before products generated returns for buyers, with 45-day receivables.
- Company holds $82B equity portfolio in customer companies plus $27B committed, creating significant exposure concentration risk.
- NVIDIA's demand shape shows subtle but significant shift with one word removed from customer taxonomy between Feb and May filings.
This Company Compounded Revenue at ~13% for 18 Years, Trades at ~4× EBIT, and Has Customers Who Almost Never Leave
🗒️ Polymath Investor
- A stealth healthcare compounder has grown revenue at ~13% for 18 consecutive years while remaining profitable throughout.
- The company trades at approximately 4x EBIT with recurring revenue from long-term contracts with highly sticky customers.
- Consolidated financial metrics mask a hidden gem in the core business after stripping away a thin-margin pass-through segment.
Robbing Peter?
Rebel Capitalist News Desk
- Hyperscaler free cash flow peaked at ~$280 billion in 2024 and is projected to go negative for the first time on record, despite soaring profits.
- The cash redirect flows entirely into AI capital expenditure, bypassing hyperscaler coffers and landing directly in semiconductor companies' income statements.
- This represents a fundamental shift in the profitability model of the last two decades, raising questions about sustainable cash generation.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets trading flat ahead of multiple catalysts including CPI data and bank earnings.
- Author advocates slowing down and resisting pressure for constant speed in decision-making and relationships.
- Reflective commentary on personal wellness peaks and the trade-offs of modern adult life.
US Markets - First Look
Derek Wallis
- S&P near highs with 10-year yield at 4.62 as markets await CPI, Warsh testimony, and bank earnings.
- European markets lower with consumer sector weakness; Asia overnight higher across Japan, China, and Korea.
- Oil prices elevated at $87 on Iran conflict concerns; big bank earnings taking center stage with US worker productivity at record levels.
WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e19)
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- JPMorgan CIO warns current environment resembles late 1990s DotCom bubble with concerning parallels in hyperscaler spending.
- Cisco-Verizon divergence in late 1999 preceded major tech selloff; similar pattern emerging with hyperscalers rolling over despite semiconductor strength.
- If big tech hyperscalers fail to demonstrate returns on $1.5 trillion capex outlays, infrastructure stocks face significant downside risk.
Market Commentary
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Sector rotation from tech (XLK) to healthcare/financials (XLV) is now confirmed, with 1,600 basis point spread between best/worst performers since June 2.
- Five-sector rolling correlation with S&P 500 reached 0.456 (July 10), extending extreme -3.58σ dislocation flagged in June 8 analysis.
- Rotation from peak tech concentration represents meaningful shift within current bull market, not speculative theory.
Trade Alerts
David Cervantes from David Cervantes | Pinebrook Capital
- Trade execution of sector rotation thesis based on correlation data and research convergence.
- Portfolio positioning adjustments to express rotation from concentration into broader sector participation.
- Trade list and rationale provided for implementing tactical moves.
Portfolio Update
The Haymaker Team
- Boeing position recommended in March 2026 at ~$210 is up approximately 5% to the low-$220s, validating the turnaround thesis.
- CEO Kelly Ortberg's 'fix first, produce later' strategy is progressing with improved production, deliveries beating expectations, and positive free cash flow inflection.
- Consensus price targets around $270 suggest room for further upside, with the decision point being whether to press the turnaround bet or hold for the longer cash-flow story.
What I'm Watching So You Don't Have To
The Message of the Markets from Ron Insana
- For only the third time in nearly 60 years, the value of Americans' stock ownership now exceeds the value of their home equity, previously occurring in 1968 and 1997.
- The 1968 peak corresponded with the 'go-go' era of mutual fund mania with glamour stocks like Xerox and Polaroid dominating investor attention.
- This asset shift to equities over real estate suggests a significant reallocation of household wealth and potential parallels to previous market peaks.
Trend Board & Systematic Chartbook
PAIDSam Shiffman from Clark Street
- Weekly systematic scan covers 340 markets across futures, FX, cash indices, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, and cross-asset ratios.
- Framework filters opportunity set through consistent methodology, highlighting compelling trends and setups for further discretionary analysis.
- Trend board, charts, and ratio scans provide visual organization of market opportunities without generating a prescriptive trade list.
The Death of Investment. The Sequel. (Money Printer Pro)
Garrett Baldwin
- Societe Generale quantitative research argues that indexing has made traditional stock picking pointless, echoing 'death of stocks' thesis from a decade ago.
- Markets have been fundamentally broken by passive indexing flows, making momentum signals and hedging critical tools for market navigation.
- Advocacy for using momentum-based entry and exit signals rather than traditional fundamental stock selection in current market structure.
US Markets - Five Points
Derek Wallis
- US markets slightly lower as bonds and oil tick up modestly; key events this week include Warsh's Congressional testimony, CPI data from US/EU, and earnings from Netflix, Taiwan Semi, and major banks.
- Author observes Americans are thriving economically during a recent 2,000-mile road trip across six cities, attributing dysfunction primarily to politics rather than economic fundamentals.
- Highlights political hypocrisy: same ICE chief (Tom Hooman) was awarded under Obama for 900K+ deportations but pilloried under Trump for removing fewer, raising questions about partisan inconsistency.
Macro · 15
Statecraft & Cool Inflation
Andrew Sarna
- June CPI came in at 3.5% below expectations of 3.8%, with core CPI falling to 2.6% and month-over-month CPI declining 0.4%—the largest monthly drop since May 2020.
- Market odds of a July Fed rate hike collapsed from 35% to near zero following the cooler-than-expected CPI print.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled the administration's goal to bring more industry back to America through policy adjustments.
Cooler CPI Bought Time. It Didn’t End the Cycle.
Global Macro Method
- A softer CPI print pushed the next Fed hike further out but did not remove the need for one—markets still embed 45bp of tightening into next spring.
- The deferred SOFR curve signals neither central bank has an all-clear, despite near-dated yields rallying.
- Current signals from STIR, yields, equity breadth, and inflation-sensitive equities do not align with a clean disinflationary glide path.
War Note: War is Inflationary, Latest War Updates, Energy Markets Review, Asian Volatility is Accelerating
MacroEdge Research
- Escalating US-Iran conflict expected to persist 60+ days, intentionally keeping inflation and nominal asset prices elevated through midterms.
- War inflation pressures offset recent disinflationary CPI celebration; Brent crude near $88/bbl limits energy-driven disinflation.
- Lower 80% consumer economy softening in real terms; nominal wealth effect via asset appreciation is a key policy lever.
Pink slips for the New Keynesian Synthesis
Seriously, Marvin?!
- Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's advisory task force selections signal wholesale exclusion of New Keynesian Synthesis adherents.
- Absence of NKS thought leaders indicates Warsh's rejection of dominant macroeconomic paradigm, with major implications for Fed policy direction.
- Task force composition reflects commitment to epistemic humility and intellectual diversity over established consensus.
Real Yields Just Voted. (So, That's Cool)
Garrett Baldwin
- Real yields on the 30-year Treasury have reached their highest levels in recent memory, signaling significant market repricing.
- Bank of America's Michael Hartnett commentary suggests this yield movement carries important implications for macro positioning.
- The shift in real yields represents a potential inflection point in the fixed-income landscape.
We're Not Out Of The Woods Yet
Prometheus Research
- Recent CPI data showing softness may be premature confirmation of continued disinflationary trends, with oil prices and shelter costs masking broader inflation.
- PCE inflation breadth remains pervasively elevated despite headline softness, suggesting underlying price pressure persists across categories.
- The Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rate policy despite weaker recent CPI data as core inflation dynamics remain resilient.
Maradona Theory
AP Research
- Federal Reserve's credibility rests on demonstrating a consistent reaction function rather than pre-committed strategy.
- Weak CPI report (headline -0.4% vs +0.1% expected, core 2.6% vs 2.8% consensus) supported Warsh's hawkish inflation stance without requiring immediate rate hike.
- Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony on inflation credentials was bolstered by favorable macro data release.
Japan's "Bring It Home" Moment?
PAIDSam Shiffman from Clark Street
- Japan's Ministry of Finance proposed capital repatriation policies to bring Japanese investor money home after two decades of overseas diversification.
- Wage growth and inflation above BoJ's target, combined with yen weakness and rising JGB yields above German yields for the first time, are reshaping return incentives for domestic investment.
- Nominal earnings growth benefits from this inflationary regime and potential capital repatriation create tailwinds for Japanese equity markets under pro-growth leadership.
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update
Michael Howell from Capital Wars
- Global liquidity momentum is decelerating as PBoC tightening and US dollar strength offset support from the Fed and BoE.
- The Small Midcap Business indicator has stalled, signaling a maturing credit cycle despite low bond volatility and solid collateral values.
- Investor risk appetite remains positive but is fading, particularly in Emerging Markets.
The American Exceptionalism Trade
Capital Flows
- China's $1 trillion goods surplus recycled through closed capital account mechanically flows into US assets, structurally supporting S&P 500 valuations.
- Dollar reserve status (58% of world reserves, 88% of currency trades) provides cheapest funding globally but hollows out US middle class wages.
- US physical exceptionalism—temperate coastal land and navigable river networks—provides 3-10% cost advantages in cargo movement versus competitors.
Four Tropes and Four Refutations
Dr Warwick Powell from Warwick Powell's Substack
- China's apparent oversupply is compositional mismatch during structural change, not aggregate demand shortage as supply and demand differ across sectors.
- Overcapacity claims misdiagnose sectoral reallocation from declining legacy goods to expanding high-tech and green solutions.
- Mainstream Western analysis of China economy uses flawed homogeneous aggregate framework rather than Pasinetti-style vertically integrated subsystems approach.
YWR GP: The Networked Pension Fund
PAIDErik@YWR
- Modern investment themes like AI infrastructure span multiple asset classes simultaneously, breaking traditional strategic asset allocation frameworks.
- Pension funds must shift from asset-class-based allocation model to networked approach that recognizes interconnected nature of contemporary capital flows.
- Private credit, infrastructure, and alternative assets no longer fit neatly into historical silos, requiring new governance frameworks for institutional capital.
KATAYAMA'S WARNING SHOT
PAIDKevin Muir from The MacroTourist
- Kevin Muir acknowledges poor Japanese Yen forecasts but doubles down on bullish position rather than capitulating.
- MAG7 short call has modestly outperformed (index flat vs S&P 500 up 10%), but Yen and volatility positions have been 'atrocious'.
- Article sets stage for updated Yen forecast following period of self-criticism about past errors.
The Dog and Pony Show
Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment.
- Federal Reserve's large balance sheet is symptomatic, not causal; the real problem is $2 trillion annual U.S. fiscal deficits per Thomas Hoenig.
- Fed has become subservient to fiscal policy and adopted implicit mandate to keep Treasury markets 'smooth' rather than maintaining independence.
- Post cites Wittgenstein and Baruch on importance of character and thinking in navigating technological and economic uncertainty.
Australian Rates: The Market Is Too Relaxed About Sticky Inflation
Global Macro Method
- Australian rates market pricing benign inflation path back to target, but analysis suggests this view is complacent given persistent services inflation.
- RBA likely to remain cautious despite moderation in headline inflation, focusing on whether underlying inflation returns sustainably to 2-3% band.
- Domestic cost pressures and business pass-through behavior create vulnerability to next CPI print and RBA decision, offering trading opportunity in short-rate curve.
Energy · 12
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Black Sea and weather risks (rainfall models showing well-below-normal precipitation in key US grain belt) remain underpriced in markets.
- Canola and sugar setting up for potential trades amid seasonal and geopolitical supply concerns.
- Consensus inflation forecasts underestimating actual inflationary pressures from agricultural and commodity supply disruptions.
Episode 5: Running on Empty - The Russian Endgame Is Here to Stay
The Commodity Compass
- Russia's refinery throughput has collapsed from 5.0 million barrels per day in 2022 to 2.9 mbpd in July 2026 due to Ukrainian drone strikes.
- Gasoline and diesel shortages are now nationwide across Russia, forcing rationing and export bans.
- Imports from Belarus and India can only provide partial relief as China is unlikely to assist at scale, leaving Russia unable to close the supply gap.
OPEC+ Data Deck (July 2026)
Rory Johnston from Commodity Context
- OPEC+ crude oil production rose to 26.2 million barrels per day in June, the highest since February 2026 before the Iran War began.
- Production gains depend on continued recovery in Persian Gulf crude loadings, which are now rolling over due to renewed US-Iranian strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
- OPEC+ has one remaining monthly quota increase before completing the unwinding of cuts, with questions arising about timing of the final 2 MMbpd production cut reversal.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Matt Warder discusses the 'RtB paradox' where fundamental factors in commodities matter inconsistently.
- New podcast episode explores why robust commodity fundamentals don't always align with equity market movements.
- Series continues discussion of commodity market disconnect with broader market behavior.
Make the Rocky Mountains Rocky Again.
Wes Flint from The Fleeting West
- Over a century of aggressive wildfire suppression has transformed Rocky Mountain forests from open, rocky landscapes into densely packed, fuel-loaded stands.
- Frequent fire historically maintained healthier forest ecosystems; today's dense forests represent an ecological recipe for more intense crown fires.
- Historic photographs and fire ecology research reveal the Rocky Mountains looked fundamentally different before suppression policies changed forest structure.
Artificial Bloom
PAIDDoomberg
- Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cell technology is positioned to address the urgent shortage of gas turbines needed for AI electricity conversion.
- SOFCs convert natural gas and air into clean electricity through chemical processes at high temperatures, historically too expensive until current AI-driven mania.
- Strong demand to convert abundant US gas supplies to power AI infrastructure has created multi-year backlogs for traditional turbine manufacturers.
The Invisible Hand of God & Return of the NACHO
Jeremy McKeown from HyperNormalTimes & In The Company of Mavericks
- Trump announced US as guardian of Hormuz Strait with reinstatement of naval blockade on Iranian vessels and 20% transit fee effective immediately.
- Brent crude jumped to $85+ on blockade announcement with 10%+ weekly gains; NACHO trade (Hormuz closure scenario) back in focus.
- Middle Eastern producers accelerating bypass pipelines; Goldman Sachs projects 45% of prewar Gulf exports routable around Strait by end of 2027, 75% by late 2028.
Trump and the Strait of Tension: A Costly Miscalculation and Its Impact on Oil Markets
Anas Alhajji Daily Energy Report
- Trump's geopolitical actions in the Strait of Hormuz region create direct impacts on global oil market dynamics and pricing.
- Oil supply disruption risks from regional tensions affect commodity markets and energy sector valuations.
- Strategic miscalculations in foreign policy can have cascading economic consequences through energy markets.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- Grain market speculators pushing to sell despite $6 crude rally and weather risks; forecasts incrementally improving but long-range rain risk remains.
- Bearish outlook on wheat relative to soybeans; cautious approach on shorts this week as traders fade bounces.
- Farmers aggressively moving grain across Western Hemisphere; risk that weather improvement rolls forward one more week.
💬 New thread from Matt Warder
The Coal Trader
- Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell by $2/t to $231/t fob as ample spot supply outweighed weak buying interest.
- Steel demand remains subdued with comfortable global inventories and India's monsoon season dampening market activity.
- Seaborne coking coal market showed minimal trading activity with few buyers willing to engage at current offer levels.
The energy foundations of Fortress Russia: 1
Irina Slav on energy
- Western oil and gas companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell) entered Russia in early 1990s following Soviet Union collapse, establishing deep energy partnerships.
- Russia's energy sector became foundational to economy, with major Western oil companies maintaining significant operations until recent geopolitical shifts.
- Three-part series examining Russia's energy infrastructure and Western corporate involvement originally commissioned in 2022 but unpublished until now.
💬 New thread from Nico
Nico from AiQ
- U.S.-Iran conflict escalation drove oil prices up 4% overnight, with WTI resistance at $76 and Brent at $80.55.
- Iran declared Strait of Hormuz closed while U.S. maintains Southern Oman route remains open, creating flashpoint over shipping security.
- Vessels using Oman alternate route face repeated Iranian attacks; critical support levels WTI $72 and Brent $74.60.
Politics · 11
Why liberalism cannot defend Britain: Melanie Phillips on the West’s “suicide note”
Jonathan Sacerdoti
- Melanie Phillips discusses how support for Israel is increasingly treated as evidence of disloyalty in Britain, raising questions about Jewish identity and belonging.
- Phillips shifted her center of gravity from London to Jerusalem after Britain's cultural institutions turned against her.
- The crisis facing Jews is framed as inseparable from the wider collapse of Western confidence and liberal values.
War Breaks Out In The Gulf Again
John Aziz
- The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended with repeated waves of American strikes targeting Iranian capabilities and bases.
- Both sides are conducting tit-for-tat military operations with Iranian attacks targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and regional allies.
- The critical question is whether either side has a realistic path from military escalation to political victory.
Office Hours: Professor Pape Answers Your Questions on Russia–Ukraine
PAIDProf Robert Pape
- Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons unless Western Russia itself is directly threatened, despite weakening conventional position.
- Tactical nuclear weapons would fail to provide decisive battlefield advantage due to intermingled populations and temporary gains.
- Professor Pape addresses deeper political and military forces shaping the Russia-Ukraine conflict's future trajectory.
A Conversation with John Sailer: How to Make Universities More Accountable
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Manhattan Institute model legislation proposes giving university governing boards expanded oversight of curriculum and hiring decisions.
- Public universities have failed to prepare students for careers and citizenship responsibilities due to administrative autonomy.
- Checks and balances in university governance would ensure public representatives can hold institutions accountable for their obligations.
America Just Served the ICC the Only Warrant It Ever Earned
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- Putin visited Mongolia despite ICC warrant for child abduction, receiving red carpet treatment and evading arrest obligations.
- Netanyahu detours around French and Swiss airspace to avoid ICC arrest warrant, curtailing his international travel.
- The ICC's enforcement power functions in inverse proportion to state lawlessness, making it a tool that only constrains law-abiding nations.
Charlie Kirk's Death Created Just One Good Thing. And Candace Owens Destroyed It.
Kaizen Asiedu
- Author attended both Trump and Kamala rallies and observed Trump rally as positive community while Kamala rally appeared fearful and negative.
- Personal journey from lifetime Democrat voter to Trump supporter reflects broader political realignment based on policy and media credibility reassessment.
- Charlie Kirk's death and memorial represented moment of unity within conservative movement that was later fractured by internal conflict.
The clock is ticking on Social Security: 2032 is closer than you think.
Bob Pisani
- Social Security OASI Trust Fund insolvency moved up one quarter to Q4 2032, with only $1.45 trillion collected against $1.61 trillion paid out annually.
- Depleted reserves will trigger automatic 22% across-the-board benefit cuts for all beneficiaries unless Congress acts.
- Core issue: declining birth rates and aging population creating structural imbalance; $1.61 trillion represents 5.3% of U.S. GDP.
The UK Bans The IRGC As A Terrorist Organisation
John Aziz
- UK government designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization under the new National Security Act, with support carrying up to 14 years imprisonment.
- The IRGC and linked group IMCR have claimed responsibility for seven attacks against Jewish institutions and Iranian opposition media in Britain.
- Britain finally recognizes the IRGC as an instrument of transnational coercion rather than a normal government component.
The Christians Risking Prison to Keep the Faith Alive
Restoring the West by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
- Pastor Ezra Jin's release from Chinese prison after founding Beijing's Zion Church marks a significant moment, but millions of Christians remain imprisoned for practicing their faith.
- China's 2025 crackdowns on Christianity represent one of the most severe recent persecutions, with the underground church growing from 20 to 10,000 believers across 40 cities before being shut down.
- The West should draw inspiration from persecuted Christians' courage to strengthen its resolve in protecting religious liberty rather than succumbing to guilt.
Weekend Recap: Death, Disgrace, and Near-Death
Roy Ben-Tzvi
- Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong Israel supporter and critic of radical Islam, passed away over the weekend with no apparent foul play indicated.
- Left-wing figures including Ana Kasparian celebrated Graham's death, exemplifying what the author views as moral rot in progressive politics.
- The author contrasts the left's pattern of rejoicing at deaths of political opponents while mourning terrorist casualties.
Iran update: the bombing expands. The deadlock holds.
Andrew Fox from Fox On War
- US has escalated from single retaliatory raid to sustained campaign with 300+ targets struck across three nights using aircraft, naval vessels, and sea drones.
- Officially stated purpose is to dismantle Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz, with no evidence the operation extends beyond that objective.
- Detailed target picture includes air defense systems, coastal radars, missile and drone infrastructure, ammunition storage, and Iranian naval capabilities.
Culture · 8
The Science-Backed Habits of People Who Never Burn Out
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- Burnout is fundamentally a recovery problem, not a volume problem—some people work extremely hard without burning out while others collapse under moderate loads.
- The WHO's 2019 definition of burnout notably excludes total hours worked, reflecting research showing that work volume alone doesn't predict burnout.
- Science-backed habits of non-burnout individuals focus on recovery mechanisms rather than simply doing less work.
You didn't fail. You quit at 40%
Parent Fit Club
- Brain's 40% exhaustion governor is protective mechanism against perceived (not real) risk, causing early quit on fitness and wellness goals.
- Fatigue and breathlessness are noise, not information; distinguishing perceived from actual physical risk is key to breakthrough performance.
- Seven rules from high-performance mindset reframed for parents juggling work, family, and early-morning fitness routines.
The 9 foods a urologist would eat if he wanted his testosterone back at 55
Strong After 40
- Most men's testosterone decline after 45 is driven by nutritional deficiency rather than age, as the endocrine system lacks raw materials like cholesterol, zinc, and minerals.
- A tiered food hierarchy prioritizes essential inputs (whole eggs, specific nutrients) over general dieting approaches to restore hormone production.
- Demonization and engineering out of saturated fats, cholesterol, and minerals from modern diets has depleted the nutritional foundation for testosterone synthesis.
The post-literate age is here
Hot Takes by Adam Singer
- Americans' pleasure reading dropped 43% between 2004 and 2023, with less than half now reading books despite increased text consumption.
- NYT bestseller sentence complexity has shrunk by one-third over a century, reflecting declining comprehension capacity in the population.
- Nearly 30% of adults cannot paraphrase or draw inferences from a few pages of text as of 2024, up from under 20% in 2017.
The Cholesterol Number Your Doctor Probably Isn't Measuring
Zenith Within by Sara Redondo, MD, MS
- ApoB (apolipoprotein B) measures the actual number of atherogenic particles in blood, providing superior cardiovascular risk assessment compared to LDL cholesterol mass.
- The LDL cholesterol measurement became standard in 1972 because particle count wasn't technically measurable; ApoB addresses this limitation at similar cost.
- US cardiovascular guidelines formally recommended ApoB for the first time in March 2026, revealing a significant minority for whom ApoB and LDL tell different risk stories.
America's Social Life Is Shrinking
Demography Unplugged
- Americans' face-to-face socializing time has declined 26% over two decades, from 47 minutes daily in 2003 to just 35 minutes in 2025.
- Young adults aged 15-24 experienced the steepest decline, dropping from 61 minutes to 35 minutes per day—a 43% decrease—now matching teenage socializing time.
- Smartphones, social media, and digital technologies are the primary drivers behind the significant reduction in in-person social interaction.
An Israeli Burn Surgeon Spent Decades Teaching an Enzyme to Do What Only a Blade Could.
Built in Israel. For everyone. from Mitch's Substack
- An Israeli surgeon developed a enzymatic treatment using pineapple enzyme to remove dead burn tissue without surgical blades after decades of research.
- For 100 years, the only method to treat deep burns was tangential excision—surgically cutting away dead skin while the patient was under anesthesia.
- The enzyme-based approach eliminates the brutal trauma and high cost of traditional blade surgery while preventing infection and promoting natural healing.
How to Make Substitutions
Rosie from Milk Street Cooking School
- To make ingredient substitutions, identify the 'work' the original ingredient performs—its flavor, texture, chemical role, or color contribution.
- Create a list of alternative ingredients that can perform the same function, then select the one that best matches the dish's overall flavor profile.
- Multiple ingredients may be needed to replicate the original's work; find the main substitute first, then add complementary ingredients as needed.
AI · 7
The Winner Take All AI Race Between The US and China
Capital Flows
- June CPI print and July FOMC hold (82% probability) confirm limited downside in rates, with equity pullbacks remaining short-term.
- AI IPO cycle now functions as clearing mechanism for macro liquidity; record foreign buying of US equities driven by China's currency non-revaluation.
- AI race is winner-take-all with no second-place prize; top 10 names account for record concentration amid highest equity valuations in history.
Breaking: Demis Hassabis endorses preflight safety testing for AI
Gary Marcus from Marcus on AI
- Demis Hassabis from DeepMind has endorsed mandatory preflight safety testing for large-scale AI models, a policy proposal Marcus has championed since 2023.
- White House has begun implementing some form of preflight testing following the Mythos incident, though with less transparency and independence than Marcus deems critical.
- Policy momentum on AI regulation shifted dramatically after Trump took office, making current progress on safety testing frameworks a notable reversal.
China AI Models: The Complete Primer
Panda Perspectives
- China's AI landscape includes two publicly traded foundation-model labs (Zhipu and MiniMax, listed in Hong Kong in January) alongside AI capabilities embedded in major platforms like Tencent and Alibaba.
- This primer precedes Chairman Xi's World Artificial Intelligence Congress in Shanghai, positioning investors to assess announcements with foundational knowledge rather than surprise.
- Upcoming three-part series will cover foundation models, incumbent platform AI businesses, and downstream applications including agents, robots, and supporting infrastructure.
The AI Economy
Andrew Sarna
- Nearly all recent US business investment growth is coming from AI-related industries, driving the broader economy.
- Software job postings have bottomed despite AI fears; developers remain essential as AI increases productivity rather than replacing workers.
- 12% of Q1 market earnings growth came from low-quality investment markups at mega-cap tech firms, raising questions about earnings quality going forward.
AI vibe shift, broad market views
PAIDGeo Chen from Fidenza Macro
- Meta's entry into cloud compute rental increases supply and challenges the narrative of structural compute scarcity.
- OpenAI's delayed IPO and fundraising struggles signal weakening capital availability for AI infrastructure expansion.
- AI sector sentiment is shifting as the narrative around lab revenues and capex deteriorates from peak enthusiasm.
Fable 5 is the smarter model. I still open GPT-5.6 Sol every day — Model Fit will tell you which one is yours.
Nate from Nate’s Substack
- Fable 5 benchmarks higher overall but GPT-5.6 Sol remains the author's daily model because it better matches their work style and preferences.
- Model fit depends on individual work patterns: Sol excels with long technical prompts and iterative refinement, while Fable excels at reading incomplete intent.
- Future AI selection will diverge further as models improve—users with different workflows will make different choices for legitimate, performance-independent reasons.
Intelligence Can Be Rented But Taste Must Be Earned
Alberto Romero from The Algorithmic Bridge
- AI is commoditizing intelligence and ability similar to how industrial revolution decoupled physical strength from economic necessity.
- Success formula shifting from talent-intelligence-ability sequence to one where taste and judgment become primary differentiators as AI handles routine cognitive work.
- Taste—the ability to discern value, direction, and quality—becomes the scarce resource that cannot be rented or outsourced to AI systems.
Tech · 5
Stripe & Advent bid $53B for PayPal, but Advent’s payments empire is the real story 💳👑; Revolut just gave AI Age…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Stripe and Advent placed a $53 billion bid to acquire PayPal, representing a major consolidation in the payments space.
- Advent's broader payments empire—beyond just the PayPal acquisition—represents the deeper strategic story of the deal.
- Stripe is deploying an agentic AI strategy while Revolut has enabled AI agents to access its trading platform, signaling the fintech industry's pivot toward AI-driven operations.
[Chart] sunset or silver-lining?
Callum Thomas from Topdown Charts Professional
- Software stocks have swung from valuation premium to material discount vs. rest of tech amid AI disruption fears.
- Market prognosis of software as sunset industry overlooks ability of incumbents to leverage AI for efficiency and competitive moats.
- Extreme relative valuation shift suggests potential opportunity for contrarian positioning in software sector.
The Sentence That Carried No Evidence (081)
Peter Simmons from Ground Truth
- Manifest/Config First principle requires all infrastructure changes be expressed as diffs to versioned config files, not live imperative mutations.
- Live state changes without recorded history create cascading failures across multiple systems with no error traceability.
- Pull request-based changes carry their own evidence and enable precise, reviewable intent statements for infrastructure modifications.
Apple’s OpenAI trade secret lawsuit is a hardware play, not a legal one 😳📱; Nubank built Mexico’s largest digita…
Linas from Linas's Newsletter
- Apple sued OpenAI for trade secret theft; the lawsuit is fundamentally a hardware play rather than a pure legal battle.
- Nubank became Mexico's largest digital bank without a traditional banking license, with full license unlocking new opportunities.
- Tom Blomfield joined Anthropic's compute team, signaling the company's hiring strategy focused on building AI-native infrastructure and self-improving systems.
What the Research Says About Remote Work and Your Career (ft. Stanford Economist Nick Bloom)
The Prof G Pod
- Stanford economist Nick Bloom's two-decade research confirms hybrid work is permanent, with about one-third of Americans now on hybrid schedules.
- Data reveals uncomfortable career tradeoffs from hybrid arrangements, particularly regarding promotion rates and advancement opportunities.
- Remote and hybrid work patterns are reshaping labor market dynamics with lasting implications for career progression.